GODINA 2.
BROJ 2 (JUN 2014.)
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GLAVNI I ODGOVORNI UREDNIK:
Prof. dr Petar Đukić, Univerzitet u Beogradu
UREDNIK:
Suzana Simić, master ekonomista, finansije, bankarstvo i osiguranje
UREDNIŠTVO:
Božidar dr Stavrić, emeritus; Šefkija dr Berberović, emeritus; Danica dr Berberović; Mira dr Šunjić, emeritus; Kadrija dr Hodžić; Branko dr Krsmanović;
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TEHNIČKI UREDNIK I GRAFIČKI DIZAJN:
Marko Mastilo
LEKTOR ZA SRPSKI JEZIK:
Prof. dr Cvijetin Ristanović
PREVOD NA ENGLESKI JEZIK:
Nemanja Jovanović, prevod i lektorisanje za engleski jezik od 1-84; 149 -160 strane
Dejan Mastilo
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EDITOR-IN-CHIEF:
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EDITOR:
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EDITORIAL BOARD:
Božidar Stavrić Ph.D., emeritus; Šefkija Berberović Ph.D., emeritus; Danica Berberović Ph.D.; Mira Šunjić, Ph.D., emeritus; Kadrija Hodžić Ph.D.;
Branko Krsmanović Ph.D.; Pajo Panić Ph.D.; Hamid Alibašić Ph.D.; Ljubomir Trifunović, Ph.D.; Nenad Suzić Ph.D.; Aleksandar Stojanović Ph.D.;
Marko Šarčević Ph.D.; Goran Popović Ph.D.; Miladin Jovičić Ph.D.; Radmila Čičković Ph.D.; Zoran Mastilo Ph.D.; Vladan Nastić Ph.D.; Zijad Krnjić
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Ph.D.; Gordana Kokeza Ph.D.; Siniša Ostojić Ph.D.; Lorena Škuflić Ph.D.; Boban Melović Ph.D.
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LANGUAGE EDITOR FOR SERBIAN:
Cvijetin Ristanović Ph.D.
TRANSLATION TO ENGLISH:
Nemanja Jovanović, BA (English Language and Literature), English translation and review pages 1-84; 149 -160
Dejan Mastilo
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entered in the Register of Public Media as item No. 645
SADRŽAJ - CONTENT
UVODNIK - EDITORIAL
1-4
Petar Đukić
REGION U ZNAKU POPLAVLJENIH KATASTROFA; GLOBALNA EKONOMIJA - NA KLACKALICI
THE REGION MARKED BY NATURAL DISASTERS; GLOBAL ECONOMY - AT A TURNING POINT
MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
5 - 22
Goran Popović
UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST U EVROPSKOJ UNIJI
IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
23 - 50
Petar Đukić
NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU: U SVETLU KONCEPTA ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA
KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT
51 - 68
Igor Ferjan
HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
PREDUZETNIŠTVO I MARKETING - ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND MARKETING
69 - 78
Miladin Jovičić; Mirna Vukadin
NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS
79 - 98
Marko Šarčević; Tihomir Spremo
MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA U USLOVIMA PRIVREDNE RECESIJE
MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES IN THE CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC RECESSION
99 - 108
Boris Valjevac; Ljiljana Sorak; Miloš Sorak
RAZVOJ METODOLOGIJE ZA PRIMJENU BSC METODE U MALIM I SREDNJIM PREDUZEĆIMA
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY FOR BSC METHOD IMPLEMENTATION IN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
Mlađan Stanić
109 - 116 MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
MARKETING IN THE MODERN BUSINESS ENVIRONEMENT
REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJA I REFORME - REINDUSTRIALIZATION AND REFORM
Valentina Vukmirović; Nikola Vukmirović
117 - 132 NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
NEW TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATION AND DESIGN IN FUNCTION OF REINDUSTRIALIZATION
Rajko Stevanović
133 - 144 KONCEPT ORGANIZACIONOG DIZAJNA I NJEGOVA PRIMJENA U RESTRUKTURIRANJU PREDUZEĆA U OBLASTI ELEKTROPRIVREDE
CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE RESTRUCTURING OF ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES
FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - FINANCE AND BANKING
Suzana Simić
145 - 162 KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMY
Renata Gligorević
163 - 174 CYBER KRIMINAL
CYBER CRIME
Petra Pantić
175 - 184 UTICAJ INFORMACIONE TEHNOLOGIJE NA OBAVLJANJE EKONOMSKE DJELATNOSTI
THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ON THE PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
PRIKAZ KNJIGE - BOOK REVIEW
Vesna Đukić
Mahmutefendić, T. (2014). Economic Performance in South-East European Transition Countries after the Fall of
185 - 194 Communism. Bloomington: Xlibris
Mahmutefendić, T. (2014). Ekonomske performance u zemljama tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi nakon pada komunizma.
Bloomington: Xlibris
195 - 198
UPUTSTVO ZA AUTORE
INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS
UVODNIK, ECONOMICS, Br. 2 - EDITORIAL, ECONOMICS, No.2
REGION U ZNAKU PRIRODNIH KATASTROFA;
GLOBALNA EKONOMIJA – NA KLACKALICI
THE REGION MARKED BY NATURAL DISASTERS;
GLOBAL ECONOMY IN 2014 – AT A TURNING POINT
Da je ovaj tekst nastao samo nedelju
dana ranije, njegov sadržaj bio bi potpuno drugačiji. Nažalost, osnovni utisak koji
nosi današnji Dan žalosti u BiH (u Srbiji u
znaku žalosti slede čak tri naredna) je da
se u srcu Jugoistočne Evrope desila takva
prirodna katastrofa kakva se ne pamti na
ovim prostorima.
If this text had been completed only a week
ago, its contents would have been completely
different. Unfortunately, the main impression
carried by today’s day of mourning in Bosnia and
Herzegovina (in Serbia the mourning days are
the following three) is that the heart of Southeastern Europe was struck by a natural catastrophe
not remembered of happening in this area.
Žalost, neverica, solidarnost – u regionu
Grief, disbelief, solidarity – in the region
Poplavni talas koji je, bez obzira na dobre
prognoze, najave, pa i pripreme, faktički bez
života privremeno ostavio čitave gradove i
sela srednje veličine, odneo je i desetine života. Bosna i Hercegovina, Srbija i Hrvatska
bile su žrtve, ovaj put, neočekivane prirodne,
pošasti velikih razmera. Gotovo biblijski potop koji nam se desio pokazao je svu silinu
prirodne stihije u ekstremnim okolnostima.
Ali nije samo na tome. Pokazalo se i to
da vodoprivreda, rečni tokovi, kanali, jezera, i drugi akvatični sistemi zahtevaju sistematsko stručno upravljanje, održavanje,
čišćenje, ekološku zaštitu i bezbednosne
procese i akcije. Ne bi se baš moglo reći
da su zemlje regiona u tom smislu bile dovoljno revnosne. Možda su ih dosadašnja
(pretežno umerena) vremenska zbivanja na
izvestan način i uljuljkala, jer region nije
osobito poznat po ekstremnim zbivanjima i
prirodnim katastrofama.
Ako je, istini za volju, bilo relativno malo
verovatno da će da se desi nešto što se dešava
“jednom u hiljadu godina”, to ipak ne znači
da takve mogućnosti nikada ne treba očekivati. Da li će ovdašnji scenariji sa “vrhovima
poplavnih talasa”, “alternativnim rečnim tokovima”, “snagom neviđenih bujica” i vode
koja probija i odnosi sve pred sobom, ili pro-
The flood wave, which, despite optimistic forecasts, announcements and even preparations,
actually temporarily desolated entire towns and
medium size villages, took dozens of lives. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia were the
victims of an unexpected large scale nature-based
catastrophe. A flood of nearly biblical proportions that struck us demonstrated the full force of
nature’s elements in extreme circumstances.
However, the story does not end there. It also
turned out that water management, river flows,
canals, lakes, and other aquatic systems require
systematic professional management, maintenance , cleaning , environmental protection and
security processes and actions. It cannot really
be said that the countries of the region were
sufficiently zealous with respect to that matter
Perhaps they were lulled by the former (mostly moderate) weather events in a certain way,
because the region was not particularly known
for extreme events and natural disasters.
Truth be told, it was relatively unlikely for a
“once in a thousand years” event to happen, but
it does not mean that such possibilities should
never be expected. Will the local scenarios
with “peaks of flood waves”, “alternative river
flows”, “water torrents of unseen power” and
water that penetrates and takes away everything
in its path, or the problems with the evacuation
1
blemima sa evakuacijom ljudi, nedostatkom
pumpi za vodu i održavanjem vitalnih sistema
u funkciji, biti sistematizovana i pretočena u
novu bezbednosnu praksu, to treba da se tek
pokaže? Treba imati u vidu da ima zemalja i
regiona gde su ovakve i slične pojave mnogo
češće, pa su i posledice i troškovi veći.
Konačno, bujice i poplavni talasi u iščekivanju, doneli su i nešto veoma pozitivno
i tako potrebno na ovim prostorima. To je
solidarnost, spremnost za pomoć pa i žrtvovanje. Koliko je samo ljudi iz susednih, kao
i najudaljenijih gradova zemlje i regiona,
stranih država priticalo u pomoć, prikupljalo hranu, higijenska sredstva, opremu, kao
da se to isto upravo njima dešava. Dobija se
utisak da postoji daleko viši nivo empatije i solidarnosti prema drugima kada su oni
ugroženi od prirode, a ne od nekih drugih
ljudi. Pri tome ni od kakve važnosti nije etnička, verska, sociokulturna i druga pripadnost. Zapravo pred razjarenom prirodom
čovek je toliko mali i ponekad u toj meri
nemoćan, da nema nikakvog smisla razmišljati o pripadanju. Jednostavno, tada je sve
besmisleno izuzev čovečnosti. A ona se pokazuje na delu u kritičnim momentima, koji
su mnogo više od scena katastrofe na filmu
ili u romanima. Verovatno, zato jer je ona
prva pretpostavka civilizovanog društvenog
i života.
of people, lack of water pumps and maintain
vital systems in operation, be systematized and
converted into new security practice, remains to
be seen. It should be borne in mind that there
are countries and regions where such and similar phenomena are more often, therefore making
the consequences and costs higher.
Finally, floods and expected flood waves
brought something very positive and so much
needed in this area - solidarity, willingness to
help others and even sacrifice yourself for them.
Numerous people both from nearby, and from
the most remote towns of the country and the
region, from foreign countries rushed to help
collect food, hygienic products, equipment, in
the same manner as if the same event struck
their own people. This gives the impression that
there is a much higher level of empathy and solidarity with others when they are threatened by
nature, and by some other people. While doing
so, ethnic, religious, socio-cultural and other affiliations were of no importance at all. Actually,
compared to the raging nature a man is so small,
sometimes being rendered powerless therefore
making the concept of belonging meaningless.
Simply put, in such events, all the other aspects are meaningless except humanity, which
is demonstrated in action at critical moments,
which are much more of a disaster scene in a
movie or a novel. Probably because it is the first
assumption of a civilized social life.
Da li će u svetu prevladati potreba za
dinamičnijim rastom ili motivi za novi
hladni rat?
Will the need for dynamic growth
or the motives for a new
Cold War prevail?
Možda bi ovaj uvodnik trebalo ovde završiti, ali valja se pozabaviti onim što preostaje, a nalazi se u samom naslovu časopisa
– oikos (kuća dom). Naime, šta preostaje u
individualnoj i zajedničkoj kući kada oluja
prođe? Valja pospremiti i osposobiti domove, individualne, porodične, preduzetničke, državne, međunarodne, tačnije rečeno,
proizvođačke i potrošačke jedinice koje nastavljaju privredni život. Današnje globalno
okruženje nije im baš naklonjeno. Naime,
Perhaps this editorial should end here, but one
has to deal with what is left, and is mentioned in
the very title of the Journal - oikos (home). Specifically, what is left in the individual and mutual
home when the storm passes? Home, regardless of
whether it is an individual, family, entrepreneurship, government, international home, should be
cleaned and restored, more precisely, manufacturing and consumer units which continue the economic life. Today’s global environment is not very
favourable to them. Not even the entire six year
2
ni čitavih šest proteklih godina svetske krize nije bilo dovoljno da se svetska ekonomsko-politička scena orijentiše isključivo ka
potencijalima ekonomskog rasta. Da li će
međunarodna trgovina, tehnološka razmena
i saradnja ostati u senci naglog pogoršanja
političkih odnosa zbog geopolitičkih razlika u vezi sa ključnim žarištima, kao što su
do pre nekoliko meseci bila ona na severu
Afrike, u Siriji, ili trenutno u Ukrajini?
Interesi velikih geopolitičkih igrača na
globalnoj sceni uveliko prete da svet odvedu daleko unazad, u stanje zaoštravanja
političkih relacija, sa elementima tzv. konktrolisanih lokalnih sukoba, što bi sigurno
donelo velike ekonomske štete, svim involviranim stranama, ali, posebno, globalnoj ekonomiji. Tranzicija vojno-političkih
konfrontacija na plan ekonomije (parcijalnim ili frontalnim ekonomskim sankcijama) predstavlja nešto što je viđeno i što
je donelo neprocenjive štete, naročito na
ovim prostorima.
Poznato je da su početkom modernog trgovačkog doba prosperirale zemlje i gradovi
koji su bili otvoreni za trgovinu i preduzetništvo. Jedan od takvih bio je Amsterdam, centar
trgovine i slobodne ekonomske saradnje. U
tom smislu bio je otvoren za sve nacije sveta i
u svakom vremenu, a još u XVI i XVII veku
bio je globalna prestonica preduzetništva i trgovine, centar mecenarstva i likovne kulture i
umetnosti. Holanđani su bili poznati po tome
što su omogućavali miran i pouzdan rad čak
i pripadnicima onih nacija sa kojima su bili u
ratu. Upravo tako, krčili su put u svetsku ekonomsku scenu, kao zemlja sa izrazito oskudnim prirodnim resursima i još nepovoljnijim
prostornim uslovima. Četvorostruka linija
odbrane Amsterdama od poplava, u uslovima
gotovo jedinstvene kriptodepresije u svetskim
razmerama, dostojna je istorijskog divljenja. I
ugledanja – posebno u našem slučaju. Možda zato što je priroda tamošnji živalj manje
mazila i nešto češće opominjala. Ali, možda
Holandija nije imala sve argumente i raspoloživa sredstva koja danas imaju velike sile koje
se nadmeću u nadnacionalnoj „volji za moć”
course of the crisis were enough to orientate the
global economic and political scene exclusively towards the potentials of economic growth. Perhaps
the international trade, technology exchange and
cooperation shall remain in the shadow of the rapid
deterioration of political relations due to geopolitical differences with regards to key hot spots, such
as the ones in North Africa or in Syria, which were
active a couple of months ago, or perhaps those in
Ukraine, which are currently in the limelight?
The interests of great global geopolitical
forces greatly threaten to lead the world far
back, into a state of intensifying the political
relations with the elements of, so called, controlled local conflicts, which would certainly
bring great economic damage to all the parties
involved but both to world trade and technological cooperation as well. The transition of
the military-political confrontation onto the
field of economy (either by partial or frontal
economic sanctions) represents something that
has already been seen and that has brought immense damage, particularly in this region.
It is well known that at the beginning of the modern commercial era, the countries and cities that
were open for trade and entrepreneurship prospered the most. One of them was Amsterdam, the
centre of trade and free economic cooperation. In
this regard it was open to all nations of the world
causing it to become the global capital of business
and trade, centre of fine art and culture, a symbol
of patronage and art in XVI and XVII century. The
Dutch were known for providing peaceful and reliable work even to the members of those nations
with whom they were at war. That was exactly the
manner they cleared their way into the economic
stage of the world, as a country with extremely
scarce natural resources and even less favourable
physical conditions. Amsterdam’s quadruple line
of defence against floods, in terms of a unique
crypto-depression, even on a world scale, is worthy of a historical admiration and being a perfect
role model, at least in our case. Perhaps because
the nature warned the Dutch and did not pamper
their nation as much as it does ours. But perhaps
the Netherlands did not have all the arguments
and resources available to great powers of today
competing in the supra-national “will to power”
3
(Niče), ako je ta filozofska sintagma uopšte
primerena današnjoj međunarodnoj politici.
Sigurno je jedino to da ukrajinska kriza već
uveliko odnosi danak globalnom rastu i tehnološkom razvoju. Ukoliko zaoštravanje na
ukrajinskoj klackalici eskalira, ni ostali svetski igrači kao što je Kina, prvenstveno, sigurno ne bi mogli da kapitalizuju posledice
tog zaoštravanja, s obzirom na globalni uticaj
koji bi u čitavom svetu zasigurno doneo niže
stope rasta od onih koje se očekuju u tekućoj
godini. Naime, MMF je u najnovijoj reviziji
svog Outlooka za april 2014. godine predvideo ne baš minoran rast globane privrede od
3,7 odsto, a u narednoj čak 3,9 odsto. Rast
ekonomije (SAD) ove godine trebalo bi da se
ubrza na 2,8 odsto, a u MMF-u očekuju i da
će rast eurozone u cjelini u ovoj godini iznositi jedan odsto, a u narednoj godini 1,4 odsto.
To bi bilo veoma optimistično, za posustalu
Evropu da se trgne iz duge letargije i ostvari
bar ikakav rast.
(Nietzsche), if such philosophical phrase is at all
appropriate for the international politics of today.
One thing is certain, the Ukrainian crisis already
takes toll onto global growth and technological
development. If the strain at the Ukrainian seesaw
escalates, not even any of the other global powers, such as China, primarily, would not be able to
capitalize on the consequences of such escalation,
given the global impact which would surely bring
lower growth rates than those expected in the current year, on a global scale. Namely, in its latest
revision of the Outlook for April of 2014, the IMF
predicted not so minor an increase of the global
economy of 3.7 per cent, followed by the increase
as much as 3.9 percent in the following year. The
growth of the economy of the United States in this
year should accelerate to 2.8 percent, and the IMF
expects the growth in the euro area, as a whole,
shall amount to one percent this year, and 1.4 percent next year. Such forecast would be a very optimistic one, for faltering Europe to achieve any
growth this year after a long period of lethargy.
Da li će izazov obnove da podstakne
region?
Will the reconstruction challenge stimulate
the region?
Za zemlje srednje i istočne Evrope kojima pripada i naš region, projekcija rasta za
2014. iznosi svega 2,8 odsto (jedva malo
povoljnija od one prethodne), dok je projektovana stopa rasta za narednu 2015. godinu snižena na 3,1 odsto. Na kratak pa i
srednji rok ne može se mnogo šta promeniti,
jer nema izgleda za povećanu tražnju kako
izvoznu tako i unutrašnju, pa su izgledi za
rast i razvoj veoma skromni. Međutim, šok
prirodne katastrofe, zajedno sa uspostavljanjem sistema insitucija i „dobre vladavine”,
koja promoviše makrostabilnost, konkurenciju, investicije, a destimuliše korupciju i
političko mešetarenje, možda bi mogao da
popravi šanse.
For the countries of Central and Eastern Europe,
which out region belongs to, the growth projections for 2014 amounts to only 2.8 percent (barely more favourable than the previous one) and
the forecasted growth rate for the next 2015 year
has been reduced to 3.1 percent. Unfortunately, in this respect, both in the short and medium
term, not many things can be changed, for there
is no prospect of increased export demand nor of
the internal demand, therefore resulting in a very
modest prospect for growth. However, the natural
disaster shock, alongside with the establishment of
a system of institutions and “good governance”,
which promotes macro-stability, competition, investment, and discourages corruption and political
manipulation, could turn the odds to our favour.
Dana 20. maja 2014. godine
4
20 May 2014
MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA
NA EKONOMSKI RAST U EVROPSKOJ UNIJI
IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Prof. dr Goran Popović
Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Ekonomski fakultet
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Economics
Mirko Savić, dipl. ek.
Izvorni naučni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402004P, UDK 340.137:339.727.22(4-672EU) Original scientific paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Investicije su faktor ekonomskog rasta i razvoja bez obzira na njihovo unutrašnje ili eksterno porijeklo. Strane direktne investicije su
konstituent ukupnih investicija, što znači da
i one imaju uticaj na ekonomski rast. Motivi
investitora za transfere kapitala u druge zemlje su brojni, pa strane direktne investicije u
svijetu kontinuirano rastu. Ove trendove povremeno ugrožavaju periodi nestabilnosti na
globalnom nivou. Većina svjetskih ekonomija
je otvorena za priliv, ali i odliv investicija u
druge zemlje. Ekonomija Evropske unije je
vodeća svjetska privreda sa najvišim stepenom otvorenosti kako za uvoz tako i za izvoz
kapitala.
Polazna hipoteza rada je dokaz o korelativnoj vezi stranih direktnih investicija i rasta
bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Za ukupno analizirani period od 2004. do 2012. godine utvrđena je zanemarljiva, ali pozitivna korelacija
(r=0,183), što samo u određenoj mjeri dokazuje hipotezu o uticaju stranih direktnih investicija na rast. Korelacija ukazuje na određeni, ali ne značajan i veći doprinos stranih
direktnih investicija ekonomskom rastu.
Analize po subperiodima potvrđuju hipotezu, jer je u stabilnom subperiodu od 2004. do
2007. godine ostvarena jaka i pozitivna korelativna veza (r1=0,992), što ukazuje na značajan
doprinos stranih direktnih investicija rastu, dok
ekonomski nestabilan period karakteriše negativna i zanemarljiva korelaciona veza između
Investments represent a factor of economic
growth and development, regardless of their internal or external origin. Foreign Direct Investments
(FDI) represent a constituent of the total investments, meaning that they have a certain impact
on economic growth. The motives of investors in
capital transfers to other countries are numerous,
causing worldwide foreign direct investment to
continuously increase. Such trends are periodically
threatened by instability periods on a global scale.
Most of the world economies are open to the inflow
and to the outflow of investments into other countries. The economy of the European Union is the
world’s leading economy with the highest level of
transparency for both import and export of capital.
The starting hypothesis of this paper is the
evidence of correlation between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product
growth. For the total period analyzed from
year 2004 to 2012 there was a minor but a
positive correlation (r=0.183), which to a
certain extent proves the hypothesis about the
FDI impact on economic growth. The correlation indicates a certain, but not a significant
contribution of FDI to economic growth.
Analyses per sub-periods confirm the hypothesis, for during a stable sub-period from year 2004
to 2007 a strong and positive correlation was made
(r1=0.992), indicating a significant contribution
of foreign direct investment to the growth, while
the economically unstable period is characterized
by negative and insignificant correlation between
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G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
stranih direktnih investicija i rasta BDP/GDP
(r2=-0,237). Dokazano je da su kretanja analiziranih veličina identična sa makroekonomskim
teorijama i relevantnom ekonomskom praksom.
foreign direct investment and GDP growth (r2=0.237). It has been proven that the trends of the
values analyzed are identical to the macroeconomic theories and relevant economic practice.
Ključne riječi: Investicije, strane direktne
investicije, rast, Evropska unija
Key words: investments, foreign direct
investment, growth, the European Union
STRANE DIREKTNE INVESTICIJE
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
Opšti pristup
General approach
Investicije predstavljaju jedan od najvažnijih makroekonomskih agregata. Klasici i savremeni teoretičari se slažu da su investicije
nužne za rast svake privrede, odnosno da bez
investiranja nema privrednog rasta. Ovo se
odnosi, kako na domaće, tako i na investicije iz inostranstva. Apsolutni i relativni iznosi
eksternih investicija razlikuju se po zemljama
i ne zavise uvijek od ekonomske snage određene privrede. Strane direktne investicije ulaze u bilansnu jednačinu bruto domaćeg proizvoda, jer čine jedan od najvažnijih oblika
ukupnih investicija. Investicije (I), kao što se
može vidjeti iz jednačine
Investments are one of the most important macroeconomic aggregates. Both classic and contemporary theorists agree that the investments are necessary for the growth of any economy, and that there
could be no economic growth without investments.
This applies both to domestic and to foreign investments. Absolute and relative amounts of external
investments differ from country to country and are
not always dependant on the economic power of
a given economy. Foreign direct investments are
included in the balance equation of the gross domestic product, as they constitute one of the most
important forms of total investment. Investments
(I), as can be seen from equation
Y=C+I+G+NX
gdje su:
C - potrošnja,
I - investicije,
G - državna portošnja,
NX - neto izvoz.
Strane direktne investicije predstavljaju sve
oblike međunarodnih investicija koje čine rezidenti iz jedne zemlje (direktni investitori)
u cilju preuzimanja trajnog udjela u firmama
koje posluju u drugim zemljama. Smatra se da
postoje trajni udjeli ukoliko je direktni strani
investitor preuzeo najmanje 10% običnih akcija (ili drugog vida vlasničkog kapitala), ili
glasačkih prava firme direktne investicije.1
wherein:
C - consumption,
I - investments,
G - government spending,
NX - net export.
Foreign direct investments represent all
forms of international investments provided by
residents of a country (direct investors) in order
to obtain a permanent share in the companies
operating in other countries. It is believed that
there are permanent shares if the foreign direct
investor obtained at least 10% of the common
stock (or other form of equity), or of the voting
rights of the company direct investment.1
1 Definicije i klasifikacije stranih direktnih investicija su bazirane na: IMF Balance of Payments Manual,
Fifth Edition; BPM5 OECD Benchmark Definition of
Foreign Direct Investment, Third Edition; i Manual on
Statistics of Internacional Trade in Services sa kojima
je usklađena klasifikacija Eurostat-a i evropske nacionalne statističke službe.
1 Definitions and classifications of Foreign Direct Investments are based on: IMF Balance of Payments
Manual, Fifth Edition; BPM5 OECD Benchmark Definition of Foreign Direct Investment, Third Edition; and
Manual on Statistics of Internacional Trade in Services
with which the classification of Eurostat and the European national statistical service was synchronised.
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G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
Strane direktne investicije se prema zemlji
investitora i zemlji destinacije, odnosno zemlji
prema kojoj se usmjeravaju mogu podijeliti na:
(1) unutrašnje strane direktne investicije (Invard
Foreign Direct Investment), ili investicije u posmatranoj privredi, odnosno investicije stranaca
u firmama rezidenta u posmatranoj nacionalnoj
privredi i (2) spoljne strane direktne investicije
(Outward Foreign Direct Investment), ili investicije u inostranstvu, tj. investicije rezidenata u
firmama filijala u inostranstvu.
Bilansno, unutrašnje strane direktne investicije predstavljaju priliv, a spoljne strane direktne investicije odliv kapitala iz posmatrane
zemlje. Strane direktne investicije uključuju
inicijalne i naknadne investicije direktnog investitora u formi vlasničkog kapitala, zajmova i reinvestirane zarade, a mogu biti uključene i investicije filijala u inostranstvu koje
pripadaju direktnom investitoru.
Postoje dva osnovna oblika međunarodnih
tokova investicionog kapitala: strane portfolio investicije (SPI) i strane direktne investicije (SDI). Ova dva oblika kapitala se u osnovi
razlikuju u kontrolnoj i upravljačkoj funkciji.
Strane portfolio investicije su ulaganja u
vlasništvo. Upravljačke, i, u velikoj mjeri,
kontrolne funkcije su prenesene na menadžere. Strane direktne investicije objedinjavaju
vlasničke, upravljačke i kontrolne funkcije u
rukama investitora.
U cilju praćenja investicija, izdvajaju se
sljedeći glavni analitički pokazatelji vezani
za strane direktne investicije.
1. Tokovi stranih direktnih investicija, koji
predstavljaju nove investicije u toku posmatranog perioda (najčešće period od godinu
dana). Oni predstavljaju pozicije kapitalnog
računa platnog bilansa. Ukupni tokovi se
dijele prema instrumentima korišćenim pri
investiranju, i predstavljaju ih: vlasnički kapital (vlasništvo u filijalama), i akcije u zavisnim i pridruženim preduzećima; reinvestirana zarada kao dio neraspoređene zarade
investitora koja nije raspoređena; ostali kapital SDI, koji čini zaduživanje i kreditiranje
fondova, uključujući i dužničke finansijske
Foreign direct investment may be divided
on the basis of the investor country and the
destination country, i.e. the country which the
investment is intended for: (1) Inward Foreign
Direct Investment, or investments in the respective economy, i.e. investments of foreigners into resident companies of the respective
national economy and (2) Outward Foreign
Direct Investment, or investments abroad, i.e.
investments by the residents in overseas subsidiary companies.
From the balance sheet basis, Inward FDI
represents the inflow, while Outward FDI
represents the outflow of capital from a given
country. Foreign Direct Investments include
both initial and subsequent investments of
a direct investor in the form of equity, loans
and reinvested earnings, and may be involved
in the investments of the abroad affiliates belonging to the direct investor.
There are two main forms of International Investment Capital Flows: Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) and Foreign Direct Investment
(FDI). These two forms of capital essentially differ both in control and in management function.
Foreign Portfolio Investments are investments in the ownership. Control, and to a
large extent, management functions are delegated to the managers. Foreign Direct Investment unify ownership, management and control functions in the hands of investors.
In order to monitor the investments, the following main analytical data related to Foreign
Direct Investment are specifically marked:
1. Foreign Direct Investment Flows, representing new investments over the observed period (usually one year). They
represent the position of the capital account of balance of payments. Total flows
are divided by the instruments used in investment, and are represented as follows:
equity (ownership of affiliates), and shares
in subsidiaries and associated companies;
reinvested earnings as a part of earnings
not allocated to investors; other FDI capital, comprised of borrowing and lending
of funds, including debt instruments and
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G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
instrumente i trgovačke kredite između investitora i firme direktne investicije.
2. Stokovi stranih direktnih investicija su
vrijednosti investicija na kraju perioda.
Bilansno, spoljne strane direktne investicije su aktiva, a unitrašnje pasiva za
posmatranu zemlju. Stokovi stranih direktnih investicija se dijele na: vlasnički
kapital i reinvestirane zarade, koje čini
vrijednost sopstvenog kapitala firme, uključujući i vrijednost sopstvenih rezervi
akumuliranih iz ranije reinvestiranih zarada; ostali kapital stranih direktnih investicija je stok dugovanja (aktive i pasive) između direktnog investitora i firme
direktne investicije.
3. Dohodak stranih direktnih investicija je
dohodak pripisan direktnim investitorima
tokom perioda, tj. prirast dohotka. On se
dijeli na tri kategorije: dividende naplative u posmatranom periodu i profite filijala doznačene direktnom investitoru, bez
odbitka poreza na prihod; reinvestirane
zarade; kamate na zajmove, koje čine pripisane kamate u posmatranom periodu na
zajmove filijalama, bez odbitka poreza na
dobit.
Pored navedenog, važan je i intenzitet stranih
direktnih investicija mjeren kao procenat bruto
domaćeg proizvoda (odnos prosječnih tokova
unutrašnjih i spoljnih stranih direktnih investicija
i GDP). Viši intenzitet znači veći obim stranih direktnih investicija u odnosu na veličinu privrede.
trade credits between the investor and direct investment company.
2. Stocks of Foreign Direct Investments are
the investments worth at the end of a given period. From the balance sheet basis,
outward Foreign Direct Investments are
the assets, with the Inward FDI being the
liabilities for the given country. Stocks
of FDI are classified as follows: equity
capital and reinvested earnings, making
the value of the company’s own equity,
including the value of their own reserves
accumulated from earlier reinvested earnings; other FDI capital is a debt stock
(assets and liabilities) between the direct
investor and direct investment company.
3. FDI Income is attributable to direct investors during the given period, i.e. income
increase. It is divided into three categories: Dividends payable in the given period and affiliates profits remitted to the
direct investor, without deduction of income tax; reinvested earnings; interest on
loans, which account for the interest accrued during the given period to the loans
given to the affiliates, without deduction
of income tax.
In addition, the intensity of Foreign Direct Investments measured as a percentage of GDP (ratio of the average Inward and Outward FDI flows
and GDP) is also very important. The higher intensity means a higher volume of Foreign Direct
Investments relative to the size of the economy.
Strane direktne investicije u privredni
razvoj
Foreign Direct Investments in economic
development
Ulogu i značaj stranih direktnih investicija
za nacionalnu privredu Todaro i Smit (2006,
str. 680-683) prvenstveno vide u ključnim
makroekonomskim momentima. One predstavljaju jedan od najpovoljnijijih oblika angažovanja strane privatne štednje u procesu
finansiranja ekonomskog razvoja, odnosno
smanjivanja jaza između planiranih investicija i lokalne štednje. Drugo, postoji značajan
doprinos stranih direktnih investicija u prevazilaženju spoljnotrgovinskog jaza zemlje
The role and importance of Foreign Direct
Investments in the national economy is primarily visible in key macroeconomic moments, as
explained by Todaro and Smith (2006, p. 680683). They represent one of the most favourable
forms of engaging foreign private savings in the
financing of economic development, and reducing the gap between planned investment and
local savings. Secondly, there is a significant
contribution of FDI in overcoming the foreign
trade gap of the country in which the investment
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G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
u koju se ulaže. Dakle, strane investicije efikasno pokrivaju nesklad između planiranih
javnih prihoda i prikupljenih poreza, te drugih oblika prihoda za potrebe javne potrošnje. Postoje velike koristi od stranih direktnih
investicija kroz prenos menadžerskih i preduzetničkih iskustava. Konačno, one danas
predstavljaju glavni kanal za prenos modernih tehnologija među zemljama.
Direktne strane investicije za stranog
ulagača mogu donijeti brojne prednosti
(Jovanović-Gavrilović, 2006), među kojima se
posebno ističu: uštede u troškovima transporta
(kako inputa, tako i gotovih proizvoda), niži
troškovi radne snage, raspoloživa infrastruktura, uštede u carinskim troškovima i preferencijalima prilikom uvoza robe, blizina kupaca,
mogućnost brzih isporuka, te dostupnost informacija o preferencijama kupaca i kontinuirano
prilagođavanje proizvoda zahtjevima tržišta.
Odnos investicija i ekonomskog rasta. Ova
međuzavisnost se dokazuje u analizi makroekonomskih agregata, stopa rasta, kretanju
investicija, spoljne razmjene i sl. Promjene
se odnose na ekonomska kretanja na nacionalnom nivou, na osnovu kojih je moguće
ocijeniti uspješnost razvojne politike. Kada
pozitivni elementi bilježe rast, postoje pozitivne strukturne promjene. U periodima kriza negativne promjene jačaju (usporavanje
rasta i investicija, povećanje nezaposlenosti,
rast deficita i sl.) (Vinski, 1967; Samuelson &
Nordhaus, 1992; Paul, 1993).
U tom kontekstu su karakteristični su slijedeći agregati i pokazatelji: (1) podaci o
ekonomskim performansama kao vrijednosti
ključnih makroekonomskih agregata (GDP i
investicija), (2) trgovinski odnosi i finansijski položaj nacionslne privrede (uključujući i
SDI), pri čemu je izbor ovih agregata logičan
i praktičan, (3) GDP per capita (McEachern,
1994) je količnik najznačajnijeg makroekonomskog agregata i broja stanovnika (zemlja,
regionalna integracija, region).2
is made. Thus, foreign investments effectively
cover the discrepancy between the planned public revenue and tax collected, as well as other
forms of revenue meant for public consumption.
There are great benefits from Foreign Direct Investments through the transfer of managerial
and entrepreneurial experience. Finally, today
they represent a major channel for the transfer
of modern technology between countries.
Foreign Direct Investment may provide many advantages for foreign investors
(Jovanović-Gavrilović, 2006), among which
the most important are: savings in transport
costs (both of inputs and finished products),
lower labour cost, available infrastructure, reduced custom cost and preferential tariff on
imported goods, vicinity of the customers, the
possibility of fast delivery and the availability
of information on customers preferences and
continuous adaptation to the market demands.
The ratio of investments and economic growth.
This interdependence is evidenced in the analysis of macroeconomic aggregates, growth rates,
investment trend, foreign exchange and so on.
The changes are related to economic trends at
the national level, on the basis of which it is possible to evaluate the success of development policy. When the positive elements are increased,
there are positive structural changes. In times of
crisis, there is a rise in negative changes (slowing
down of growth and investment, rise of unemployment, increase of deficit, etc.) (Vinski, 1967;
Samuelson & Nordhaus, 1992; Paul, 1993).
In such context, the following aggregates and
indicators are considered as characteristic ones:
(1) Data on economic performance as the values
of key macroeconomic aggregates (GDP and investments), (2) Trade relations and financial position of the national economy (including FDI),
where the selection of the aggregates is logical
and practical, (3) GDP per capita (McEachern,
1994) is the ratio of the most important macroeconomic aggregate and the population (country,
regional integration, region).2
2 Za izračunavanje DBP se koriste tri pristupa: (1) zbir
bruto dodate vrijednosti, (2) zbir dohodaka u tekućoj
proizvodnji i (3) zbir vrijednosti dobara i usluga finalne
potrošnje, umnjena za uvoz.
2 Three approaches are used in calculating GDP: (1) the
sum of gross value, (2) the sum of income in the current
production, and (3) the sum of the value of goods and
services of final consumption, minus the import.
9
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
Visina outputa govori o razvijenosti određene nacionalne privrede. Dakle, GDP je determinanta razvoja i relevantan makroekonomski pokazatelj ekonomske snage.
Dinamika GDP, agregatno ili per capita
determinišu stopu rasta i razvoja. Tačnije,
dugoročni realni rast GDP, agregatno ili na
per capita osnovi praćen željenim strukturnim promjenama predstavlja fundamentalni
pokazatelj razvoja, bez obzira na to da li je
riječ o klasičnim, ili o savremenim teorijama.
Društvene odnose oslikava ,,mnogodimenzionalnost razvojnih ciljeva, što prouzrokuje i
različite pokazatelje društveno-ekonomskog
napredovanja“ (Dragutinović, Filipović &
Cvetanović, 2005, str. 329).
Visoke stope rasta i visok nacionalni dohodak zahtijevaju postojanje proizvodnih i drugih kapaciteta, što, pored ostalog, neminovno podrazumijeva kontinuirano investiranje
kako sredstvima domaće akumulacije tako i
svim oblicima stranih direktnih investicija.
Inače, odnos investicija i GDP je odnos kapitala (ili fiksnih fondova) i outputa, tj. makroekonomski pokazatelj kapitalni koeficijent
(računaju se na bruto ili neto osnovi, kao prosječni ili marginalni, obični, tehnološki itd.
Jednostavno, mjerenje ekonomske efikasnosti uloženih investicionih sredstava učešćem
investicija u GDP (proizvodnji) predstavlja
postupak ocjene efikasnosti investicija na
makroekonomskom nivou. Iako su kapitalni
koeficijenti veoma jednostavni i statični, korelacionom i regresionom analizom se mogu
dobiti relevantne informacije o stanju nacionalne privrede ili određene teritorijalne cjeline (regionalna integracija, region).
Output level indicates the development of
a particular national economy. Thus, GDP is
the determinant of development and a relevant
macroeconomic indicator of economic strength.
Dynamics of GDP, by aggregate or per capita, determine the rate of growth and development. Specifically, a long-term real growth of
GDP, either on an aggregate or per capita basis, followed by the desired structural change
is a fundamental indicator of development,
regardless of whether it is a classic or a modern theory. Social relations are reflected by a
multidimensionality of Development Goals,
causing different indicators of socio-economic progress” (Dragutinović, Filipović & Cvetanović, 2005, p. 329).
High growth rates and high national income
require the existence of manufacturing and
other capacities, which, among other things,
inevitably involves continuous investment
in both domestic accumulation funds and all
forms of Foreign Direct Investments.
Normally, the ratio of investment to GDP
is the ratio of capital (or fixed funds) and the
output, e.g. macroeconomic indicator a Capital-Output-Ratio (calculated on a gross or net
basis, as the average or marginal, ordinary,
technological, etc.) Simply, measuring the
economic efficiency of the investment funds
invested by the share of the investment in
GDP (production) is the process of evaluating
the investment efficiency at the macroeconomic level. Though capital coefficients are
very simple and static, correlation and regression analysis can provide relevant information on the state of a national economy or a
certain territory (regional integration, region).
STRANE DIREKTNE INVESTICIJE I
RAST U EVROPSKOJ UNIJI
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS AND
GROWTH IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
Strane direktne investicije
u Evropskoj uniji
Foreign Direct Investments in the
European Union
Ukupne investicije u Evropskoj uniji iznose
nešto manje od jedne petine (ispod 20%) bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Stopa investicija (I/Y)
Total investments in the European Union
are less than one-fifth (below 20%) of the
GDP. The investment rate (I/Y) is stable on a
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G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
je dugoročno stabilna. Stopa investicija u najrazvijenijim zemljama Unije je niža i kreće se
do jedne šestine, dok u novim i slabije razvijenim članicama stopa investicija dostiže čak
i do jedne četvrtine autputa (Popović, 2009,
str. 108-110).
Kao makroekonomski pokazatelj predmet
našeg interesovanja su tokovi priliva stranih
direktnih investicija i njihov uticaj na kretanje
bruto domaćeg proizvoda.
long-term. The investment rate in most developed EU countries is lower and ranges up to
one sixth, while with the newer and less developed countries the investment rate reaches up to one-quarter of the output (Popović,
2009, p. 108-110).
As a macroeconomic indicator, the subject
of our interest are the inflows of Foreign Direct Investments and their impact on the GDP
trend.
Tabela1
Tokovi SDI u milionima evra za EU 27
(Eurostat, 2012)
Table 1
FDI flows in millions of Euros in EU 27
(Eurostat, 2012)
Godina
[Year]
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
2009.
2010.
2011.
2012.
TOKOVI
[FLOWS]
Odlivi SDI
[Outflow FDI]
369.134
669.041
879.818
1.278.121
919.366
612.534
585.530
725.924
392.379
Prilivi SDI
[Inflow FDI]
244.179
591.234
726.462
1.065.473
582.517
512.626
480.892
652.062
345.096
Iz tabele 1. se vidi da se prilivi i odlivi tokova stranih direktnih investicija u početnim
godinama posmatranog perioda od 2004. do
2007. godine permanentno povećavaju. Ako
se, npr., 2004. posmatra kao bazna godina,
onda je odliv stranih direktnih investicija u
2005. godini enormno porastao sa 369.134
miliona evra na 669.041 miliona evra, dok
se priliv povećao sa 244.179 miliona na čak
591.234 miliona evra, ili preko 100%. Dinamičan trend rasta je nastavljen do kraja 2007.
godine.
Početkom 2008. godine dolazi do svjetske
finansijske krize koja se iz SAD prenosi i na
globalnu ekonomiju. Zahvaćeni su svi segmenti svjetske ekonomije, uključujući i strane direktne investicije. Tokom 2008. godine
dolazi do pada tokova u prilivu i odlivu stranih direktnih investicija.
Stok (ukupna vrijednost) SDI
[Stock (total value) FDI]
Odlivi SDI
Prilivi SDI
[Outflow FDI]
[Inflow FDI]
5,420,856
4,846,365
6,305,140
5,690,696
7,183,987
6,519,759
8,388,610
7,664,230
8,901,697
7,866,082
9,589,730
8,507,086
10,590,724
9,168,061
11,920,013
10,119,687
13,169,449
11,112,386
Table 1 shows that the inflows and outflows
of Foreign Direct Investments in the early
years of the observed period from year 2004
to 2007 are constantly increasing. If, for example, year 2004 is observed as the base year,
then the outflow of FDI in 2005 was enormously increased from EUR 369,134 million
to EUR 669,041 million, while the inflow
increased from EUR 244,179 million to as
much as EUR 591,234 million, or more than
100%. The dynamic growth trend continued
until the end of 2007.
At the beginning of 2008 a global financial
crisis spread from the U.S. onto the global
economy. All segments of the world economy
were affected, including Foreign Direct Investment. During 2008 a decline in the inflow
and outflow of Foreign Direct Investments
was noted .
11
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
Dakle, kriza se sa globalnog finansijskog
tržišta reflektuje na ekonomiju Unije. Kako
je prouzrokovana neskladom finansijskog i
realnog sektora ekonomije, njene posljedice
su se manifestovale u padu agregatne tražnje,
usporavanju stopa rasta, deflaciji i rastu nezaposlenosti. Bez obzira na prelijevanje krize sa američkih finansijskih tržišta, Evropska
unija i dalje ima bliske odnosa sa SAD kao
najvećim spoljnotrgovinskim partnerom sa
kojim realizuje ogroman promet roba, usluga
i kapitala, koji je na dnevnom nivou znatno
veći od milijardu evra. Isto tako, Unija kontinuirano ulaže napore na povećanju učešća
u svjetskoj trgovinskoj razmjeni, rastu svih
oblika investicija i inovacija, uz poboljšanje
preduzetništva i razvoj korporativne društvene odgovornosti.
Nesporno je da je ova razvojna orijentacija
garancija bržeg i bezbolnijeg izlaska iz krize
i očuvanja postojećih međunarodnih odnosa i
sadašnjeg svjetskog poretka.
Evropske zemlje kao i većina svjetskih
ekonomija tokom finansijske krize smanjuju
investicione aktivnosti, posebno, van svojih
granica. Uz ostale, i tim mjerama pokušavaju
ublažiti negativne efekte globalne ekonomske
krize. Negativan trend velikog pada tokova stranih direktnih investicija se nastavlja i
u 2009. godini, u kojoj je i kriza eskalirala.
Mnoge svjetske ekonomije su se privremeno
zatvorile zbog brige za unutrašnju ekonomsku situaciju. Isto tako, i tokom 2010. godine bilježe se negativni tokovi priliva i odliva
stranih direktnih investicija.
Tokom 2011. godine u EU 27 se prvi put nakon 2007. uočava oporavak i rast stranih direktnih investicija. Rast je bio neznatan da bi
popravio opšti nivo investicija, imajući u vidu
da su strane direktne investicije u 2007. godini bile znatno veće, na strani priliva i odliva.
U 2012. godini ponovo padaju tokovi stranih
direktnih investicija u odnosu na prethodnu
godinu zbog drugog talasa globalne krize
i posebne finansijske i fiskalne krize u koju
ulaze pojedine članice EU, a, posebno, Grčka.
Tokovi stranih direktnih investicija varijaju iz godine u godinu i povećavaju se u periodima rasta, a
12
Thus, the crisis of the global financial market is reflected onto the economy of the EU. As
the crisis was caused by the mismatch of the
financial and real financial sectors, its effects
manifested as the decline in aggregate demand,
slowing the rate of growth, deflation and rise of
unemployment. Regardless of the spillover of
the crisis from the U.S. financial markets, the
European Union still has close relations with
the United States as the largest foreign trade
partner with which a vast traffic of goods, services and capital is made, being much higher
than EUR 1 billion on a daily basis. Similarly,
the EU is continuously making efforts to increase participation in world trade, the growth
of all forms of investment and innovation
while improving entrepreneurship and the development of corporate social responsibility.
There is no doubt that such development orientation guarantees a faster and painless exit
from the crisis and a preservation of existing international relations and the current world order.
European countries, as well as most of the
world’s economies, reduced their investment activities, especially outside their borders, during the
financial crisis. Alongside with the others, they try
to utilise such measures to mitigate the negative
effects of the global economic crisis. The negative
trend of collapsing flows of Foreign Direct Investment continues in year 2009, in which the crisis
escalated. Many of the world’s economies have
been temporarily closed due to concerns for their
internal economic situation. Likewise, during the
year 2010 the negative cash inflows and outflows
of Foreign Direct Investments were recorded.
During the year 2011, for the first time since
2007 a recovery and growth of Foreign Direct
Investment is observed in EU 27. The growth
was negligible to improve the overall investment level, given that the FDI in 2007 were significantly higher, on the side of the inflow and
outflow. The 2012 year was marked by another
drop of FDI flows compared to the previous year
due to the second wave of the global crisis and
special financial and fiscal crisis which included
some of the EU members, notably Greece.
FDI flows vary from year to year and increase in periods of growth, while decreasing
G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
smanjuju u periodima recesije. U Evropskoj uniji
nakon pada od 60% u 2008. godini, priliv stranih
direktnih investicija se oporavlja u 2009. godini za
28%, što je u velikoj mjeri posljedica rasta sopstvenog kapitala i reinvestiranja zarade (Eurostat, 2012).
Prilikom prikaza stoka stranih direktnih investicija javlja se problem manjka zvaničnih
podataka stoka SDI za 2012. godinu na teritoriji Evropske unije, gdje su joj partneri zemlje
iz cijelog svijeta. Pošto postoje baze podataka
iz prethodnih godina, vrijednost stoka u 2012.
godini dobiće se prosječnom stopom rasta za
sve godine unazad do 2004. godine. Za razliku od tokova stranih direktnih investicija koji
fluktuiraju, ukupni stok SDI po godinama ne
opada, već konstantno raste, što pokazuje da
su zemlje EU atraktivne za strana ulaganja.
Sljedeći grafikon prikazuje kretanje toka
priliva SDI.
in periods of recession. After the 60% drop in
2008, the Foreign Direct Investment inflow in
the EU recovered in 2009 by 28 %, which was
largely due to the equity growth and reinvestment of profits (Eurostat, 2012).
When viewing a stock of Foreign Direct Investments, there is a problem of a lack of official FDI stock data in the European Union for
year 2012, with its partners being the countries
from all over the world. Since there are databases containing data from previous years, the
value of the stock in 2012 will be obtained via
the average growth rate for all the years back
to the 2004. Unlike FDI flows, which fluctuate,
the total FDI stock is not declining per year, but
growing steadily, indicating that the EU countries are attractive for foreign investments.
The following chart demonstrates the trend
of the FDI inflow.
Grafikon 1. Tokovi priliva stranih direktnih
investicija (Eurostat, 2012, str. 93)
Chart 1. Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
(Eurostat, 2012, p. 93)
Bruto domaći proizvod i rast
u Evropskoj uniji
Gross Domestic Product growth
in the European Union
Bruto domaći proizvod i stopa rasta za
Evropsku uniju je prikazana za period od
2003. do 2013. godine (EU se od polovine
2013. godine proširila). Očigledno je da posljednje godine posmatranog perioda prati
nestabilnost u stopama rasta, što je posljedica
uticaja globalne krize i dužničke krize Evrozone. Podaci o GDP i stopama rasta prikazani
su u tabeli br. 2.
Gross Domestic Product and growth rate in
the European Union is presented for the period from 2003 to 2013 (The EU expanded
starting from mid 2013). Obviously, the final
years of the given period are marked by the
growth rate instability which is the result of
the global crisis and the eurozone debt crisis.
Data on GDP and growth rates are shown in
Table 2.
13
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
Tabela 2.
GDP i rast u EU u periodu
(Eurostat, 2012)
Godina
[Year]
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2003–2015
Realni BDP (u milijardama evra)
[Real GDP (in billion EUR)]
9.664,40
9.913,20
10.127,30
10.467,80
10.802,70
10.842,80
10.354,90
10.564,30
10.740,30
10.697,70
10.696,74
10.872,70
11.080,30
Tabela prikazuje vrijednosti i kretanje realnog
bruto domaćeg proizvoda od 2003. do 2012. godine za 27 zemalja Evropske unije, dok su za period od polovine 2013. do 2015. godine prikazane prognozirane (projektovane) vrijednosti GDP.
Realni bruto domaći proizvod do 2008. godine
kontinuirano raste. Pod uticajem ekonomske krize krajem 2008. i početkom 2009. godine dolazi
do pada vrijednosti GDP sa 10.842,8 milijardi
evra, koliko je iznosio 2008. godine, na 10.354,9
milijardi evra na kraju 2009. godine (Krugman,
2010). Dakle, 2009. godine pada ekonomska aktivnost zbog recesije evropske privrede. Tokom
2010. godine dolazi do neznatnog rasta GDP, ali
je stopa ispod nivoa koji je privreda ostvarivala
do kraja 2008. godine.
Dužnička kriza Evrozone, a posebno problemi koji se javljaju u Grčkoj, Španiji i Italiji
zbog implementacije mjera štednje u javnom
sektoru i otežane situacije u ekonomijama
najvećih članica Evropske unije, doveli su do
pada ukupnog i usporavanja rasta realnog segmenta bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Takođe, u
spomenutom kritičnom periodu dolazi do rasta cijena nafte i hrane, dva proizvoda ključna
za formiranje cijena važnijih proizvoda i realnih nadnica.
14
Table 2.
GDP growth in the EU in the period 20032015 (Eurostat, 2012)
Rast (%BDP)
Growth (% GDP)
1.5
2.6
2.2
3.4
3.2
0.4
-4.5
2.0
1.7
-0.4
0.0
1.4
1.9
The table shows the values and trends of the
real gross domestic product from 2003 to 2012
for the 27 countries of the European Union,
while the period from mid 2013 to 2015 contains the forecasted (projected) GDP values.
The Real GDP is continuously increasing until 2008. Under the influence of the economic
crisis at the end of 2008 and at the beginning
of 2009 there was a decline in the GDP value
from EUR 10,842.8 billion, to EUR 10,354.9
billion at the end of the 2009 (Krugman, 2010).
Thus, the decline in economic activity due to
the recession of the European economy occurs in 2009. During 2010, there was a slight
growth in GDP, but the growth rate remained
below the level achieved by end of 2008.
Eurozone debt crisis and particularly the
problems arising in Greece, Spain and Italy
due to the implementation of austerity measures in the public sector and the difficult situation in the economies of most member states
of the European Union, led to a decrease in
total and slowing growth in real segment of
GDP. Likewise, the above referenced critical
period was marked by an increase in oil and
food prices, the two products critical for the
pricing of major products and real wages.
G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
Od 1.6.2013. godine Evropska unija se širi
na 28 članica. U tom periodu se uočava stagnacija rasta i realnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda. Prema procjeni Eurostata , realni GDP
u periodu od 2013. do 2015. godine će sporo
rasti (u 2014. godini će doći do ozbiljnijeg
rasta u odnosu na 2013. godinu, a ohrabrujuća procjena rasta za 2015. godinu ukazuje
na dugoročnu stabilizaciju i izlazak iz krize).
Ipak, ako se uporedi realni nivo GDP iz 2008.
godine i predviđeni za 2014. godinu, može
se zaključiti da ekonomija EU još uvijek nije
prebrodila ekonomske probleme izazvane aktuelnim krizama.
Prognoze za 2015. godinu su obećavajuće,
jer se predviđa rast od skoro 2% u odnosu na
prethodnu godinu. Apsolutna vrijednost GDP
će prvi put (2014, a zatim i 2015. godine)
biti veća od one iz 2008. godine. Kad bi se
komparirali samo podaci o GDP 2008. godine sa prognozama za 2015. godinu, moglo bi
se zaključiti da je period recesije prošao. Na
osnovu promjena bruto domaćeg proizvoda iz
tabele 2. izveden je grafikon br. 2.
From 01 June 2013, the EU expanded to 28
member states. During this period, the stagnation of growth and real GDP is registered.
According to Eurostat estimates , real GDP
in the period from 2013 to 2015 will increase
slowly (there will be a more significant growth
in 2014 compared to 2013, with a reassuring
assessment of growth in 2015 indicates the
long-term stabilization and recovery from the
crisis). However, if the level of real GDP from
the 2008 is compared to the planned GDP for
2014, it can be concluded that the EU economy has not yet overcome the economic problems caused by the current crisis.
Forecasts for the year 2015 are promising,
for an increase of nearly 2% over the previous year is expected. The absolute value of
GDP will, for the first time (in 2014 and then
in 2015) be greater than the one from 2008.
If only the data on GDP from 2008 would be
compared to the forecasts for 2015, it could
be concluded that the period of the recession
has passed. Chart 2 has been derived based on
the GDP changes from Table 2.
Grafikon 2. Kretanje bruto domaćeg proizvoda (rast u %)
Chart 2. GDP trend (growth in %)
Na grafikonu se uočava da od 2003. do
2006. godine postoji kontinuiran rast. I 2007.
godine, pred eskalaciju krize u SAD, stopa
rasta od preko 3% bila je za evropske prilike izuzetno visoka. Međutim, 2008. godine
stopa rasta dramatično pada na svega 0,4%.
Ipak, ona je i dalje pozitivna, iako ekonomija
The chart notes that from 2003 to 2006 there
was a continuous growth. Likewise, in 2007, just
before the escalation of the crisis in the U.S., the
growth rate of over 3% was extremely high for the
European standards. However, in 2008 the growth
rate drops rapidly to 0.4%. Nevertheless, it was still
positive, even though the economy of the European
15
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
Evropske unije zbog širenja američke krize
već posluje u otežanim okolnostima. Kako se
ističe, u 2009. godini dolazi do pada GDP, što
je pokazatelj da je privreda Evropske unije
već tada u ozbiljnoj ekonomskoj krizi.
Tokom 2009. godine u Evropskoj uniji
dolazi do smanjenja odliva, ali i do nešto
većeg priliva stranih direktnih investicija,
što se, uz ostale faktore, odrazilo pozitivno na rast GDP. U 2010. godini je ostvaren
značajan rast.
Međutim, priliv stranih direktnih investicija
ne utiče promptno na rast BDP. Može se reći da
između aktiviranja investicija i njihovog konačnog stavljanja u funkciju u smislu makroekonomskih rezultata, postoji određeni vremenski
pomak. S druge strane, i dužnička kriza koja je
zahvatila Evrozonu, a najviše njene članice Grčku, Španiju i Italiju, u 2012. godini je dovela do
novih nestabilnosti, što se snažno reflektovalo i
na oblast stranih i domaćih investicija.
Union, due to the expansion of the U.S. crisis was
already operating in hampered conditions. As it was
stated, in 2009 there was a drop of GDP, which was
an indication that the economy of the European Union was in a serious economic crisis at the time.
During 2009, there was a reduction of outflow in the European Union, but also with a
somewhat higher inflow of Foreign Direct
Investments, which, along with other factors,
reflected positively onto GDP growth. In 2010
a significant growth was achieved.
However, the inflow of Foreign Direct Investments does not immediately affect the GDP
growth. It can be stated that between the activation
of investments and their final putting in the operation in terms of macroeconomic performance, there
is a certain time lag. On the other hand, the debt
crisis that has engulfed the Eurozone, primarily its
member states Greece, Spain and Italy, lead to new
instabilities in 2012, which was strongly reflected
onto the area of foreign and domestic investments.
UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH
INVESTICIJA NA RAST
U EVROPSKOJ UNIJI
INFLUENCE OF FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENTS ONTO GROWTH
IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
U ovom dijelu će se pokazati u kakvoj su vezi
tokovi priliva SDI i kretanje bruto domaćeg proizvoda, kao osnovne determinante privrednog rasta.
Jer, nesporno je da strane direktne investicije imaju
pozitivan uticaj na rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda,
što predstavlja i polaznu hipotezu ovoga rada.
Kako bi se što bolje prikazao intenzitet i kvalitet
uticaja toka priliva stranih direktnih investicija na
kretanja bruto domaćeg proizvoda, i druge specifičnosti tog odnosa, koristiće se regresiona i korelaciona analiza.
This section shall demonstrate the relationship
between FDI inflows and Gross Domestic Product trend, as the main determinant of economic
growth, because it is undisputed that FDIs have
a positive impact on the growth of GDP, which
is the initial hypothesis of this paper.
In order to properly show the intensity and the
quality of FDI inflow influence to GDP trends,
as well as the other specifics of such relationship, a regression and correlation analysis shall
be used.
Promjena jednog obilježja nekog statističkog skupa često ima uticaj na promjenu drugih obilježja zbog međusobne povezanosti.
Veza između obilježja može se razlikovati
po smjeru i veličini. U funkcionalnoj vezi
svakoj vrijednosti jednog obilježja odgovara
Change of an attribute of a statistical population
often has an impact on changing other characteristics due to the interconnection. The interconnection between the attributes can vary in size and
direction. In the functional relation, a value of
an attribute corresponds to the value of the oth-
Korelaciona i regresiona analiza:
opšti dio
16
Correlation and regression analysis:
the general part
G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
određena vrijednost drugog. Labavije veze su
podložne odstupanjima (korelativne, stohastičke veze). Jedna promjenljiva se identifikuje kao nezavisna (h), a druga kao zavisno
slučajna promenljiva (y). U radu nezavisno
promjenljivu čine tokovi priliva SDI, a zavisno promjenljiva je GDP. Statističke metode
koje proučavaju uzajamne veze statističkih
obilježja i pojava (smjer, jačina, oblik) su teorije korelacije. Pokazatelji korelacionih veza
su jednačina regresije i koeficijent korelacije. Dakle, ispitivanje zavisnosti u statističkoj
analizi ima dva osnovna pravca: oblik zavisnosti koji ispituje regresiona analiza i jačinu
zavisnosti koju određuje korelaciona analiza.
Regresiona analiza pokazuje oblik veze
dvije promjenljive regresionom linijom. Odnos promjenljivih može biti različit, i zato je
prvi korak ka otkrivanju oblika povezanosti
dijagram rasturanja, ili dijagram disperzije
između dva obilježja. Da bi se kvantifikovala približno linearna veza, može se konstruisati pravac koji najbolje opisuje podatke. To
se može učiniti ako je približno jednak broj
tačaka iznad pravca i ispod njega. Egzaktan
matematički način koji ukazuje na najbolje
prilagođen pravac linearne veze je metoda
najmanjih kvadrata. Tako određen pravac povezanosti između dvije varijable prikazuje se
regresionom linijom. Regresiona linija izražava se jednačinom regresije:
er. Loose connections are subject to deviations
(correlative stochastic connections). A variable
is identified as an independent (x), with the other occurring as a dependent random variable (y).
In the paper, the independent variable are the FDI
inflows, with GDP being the dependant variable.
Statistical methods studying the mutual interconnection of statistical features and occurrences (direction, intensity, form) represent the correlation
theory. Data correlation indicators are the regression equation and the coefficient of correlation.
Therefore, dependency testing in statistical analysis has two main directions: a form of dependency
examined by regression analysis and dependence
intensity determined by correlation analysis.
Regression analysis shows a form of connection
between the two variables by a regression line. The
relationship between the variables may be different,
and therefore the first step towards discovering the
type of dependence is the dispersion diagram between the two features. In order to quantify an approximately linear relationship, a line can be made
in order to describe the data in the best manner
possible. This can be done if the number of points
above the line and below it is approximately the
same. The exact mathematical method indicating
the direction line best suited to linear relationship
is the least squares method. Such defined direction
line of correlation between the two variables is
shown by a regression line. The regression line is
expressed by the regression equation:
y=a+b*x
gdje su:
y – zavisno promjenljiva,
x – nezavisno promjenljiva,
a – regresiona konstanta,
b – koeficijent regresije.
wherein:
y - dependent variable,
x - independent variable,
a – regression constant,
b - regression coefficient.
Korelaciona analiza pokazuje stepen zavisnosti između zavisnosti promjenljivih, tj. korelacija mjeri jačinu utvrđene povezanosti između
dvije promjenljive. Stepen intenziteta povezanosti između promjenljivih koje su u linearnom
odnosu mjeri se: kovarijansom kao apsolutnom
mjerom intenzitieta korelacije i koeficijentom
proste linearne korelacije kao relativnom mje-
The correlation analysis shows the dependence level between the variables, that is, the correlation measures the intensity of the established interconnection
between the two variables. The level of interconnection intensity between the variables that are in a linear
relation is measured as follows: by a covariance as
an absolute measure of correlation intensity and by a
coefficient of a simple linear correlation as a relative
17
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
rom intenziteta korelativne mjere.
Najprihvatljivija mjera je koeficijent proste linearne korelacije ili Pirsonov koeficijent
koji se može izračunati pomoću sljedeće formule:
measure of intensity of the correlative measure.
The most acceptable measure is the simple
linear correlation coefficient or Pearson coefficient, which can be calculated using the following formula:
Poslije izračunavanja Pirsonovog koeficijenta neophodno je primjeniti skalu za tumačenje koeficijenta korelacije3.
After calculating the Pearson coefficient, it
is necessary to apply the scale to interpret the
correlation coefficient3.
Korelaciona i regresiona analiza na
primjeru Evropske unije
Correlation and regression analysis on the
example of the European Union
Kako bi se utvrdio oblik i jačina zavisnosti
između rasta GDP i toka priliva SDI, mogu se
uzeti već pomenute vrijednosti bruto domaćeg proizvoda i toka priliva SDI u Evropskoj
uniji za period od 2004. do 2012. godine. Potrebno je formirati i uporednu tabelu sa prikazom apsolutnih vrijednosti obje varijable u
posmatranom periodu.
In order to determine the shape and intensity
of dependency between the GDP growth and
the FDI inflow, the above mentioned values of
Gross Domestic Product and the FDI inflow in
the European Union for the period from 2004
to 2012 can be used. It is necessary to establish
a comparative table showing the absolute values of both variables in the given period.
Tabela 4
Uporedni prikaz GDP i toka priliva SDI
Table 4
Comparative review of GDP and the FDI Inflow
Godina
[Year]
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Prilivi SDI
[Inflows FDI]
244.179
591.234
726.462
1.065.473
582.517
512.626
480.892
652.062
345.096
3 За коефицијент корелације r који има вриједност
-1<r<-0,8 ради се о јакој негативној корелационој
вези; за -0,8<r<-0,6 ради се о средње негативној
вези; за -0,6<r<-0,3, ради се о слабој негативној вези;
за -0,3<r<0,3, постоји занемарљива корелациона
веза; за 0,3<r<0,6 слаба позитивна веза; за 0,6<r<
0,8 ријеч је о средње позитивној вези; и за 0,8<r<1
постоји јака позитивна веза.
18
Vrijednost BDP
[Value GDP]
9.913,20
10.127,30
10.467,80
10.802,70
10.842,80
10.354,90
10.564,30
10.740,30
10.697,70
3 For the correlation coefficient r, which has a value
of -1<r<-0.8 it is an intensive negative correlation; for
-0.8<r<-0.6 it is an average negative correlation; for
-0.6<r<-0.3, it is a weak negative correlation; for -0.3
<r < 0.3, it is a negligible correlation; for 0.3<r<0.6 it
is a weak positive correlation; for 0.6<r< 0.8 it is a medium positive correlation; and 0.8<r<1 there is a strong
positive correlation
G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
Na osnovu podataka iz prethodne tabele formira se dijagram raspršenosti. Takođe,
pomoću funkcija u Excelu moguće je dobiti i
liniju regresije.
Based on the data from the previous table, a
scatter diagram is formed. Likewise, by using
functions in Excel, it is possible to obtain the
regression line.
Bruto doma
[Gross Domestic Product]
11.800,00
10.800,00
10.600,00
10.400,00
10,200,00
10.00,00
9.800,00
0
200.000 400.000 600.000 800.000 1.000.000 1.200.000
Strane direktne investicije [Foreign Direct Investments]
Grafikon 3. Linija regresije
Chart 3. Regression line
Iz prezentovanih podataka se dolazi do zaključka da ucrtane tačke koje aproksimuju
regresionu liniju pokazuju težnju ka rastu, i
to pozitivnom. Ovo znači da rast toka priliva stranih direktnih investicija prati rast bruto
domaćeg proizvoda. Ovim se konstatuje osnovna svrha regresione analize - oblik zavisnosti između rasta GDP i toka priliva SDI.
Korelaciona analiza će utvrditi jačinu zavisnosti među varijablama. Koeficijent korelacione analize izračunaće se Pirsonovom formulom.
Prvo se izvodi ukupan koeficijent korelacije
za period od 2004. do 2012. godine. Ukupni
koeficijent korelacije iznosi r=0,183. Dakle,
u posmatranom periodu postoji zanemarljiva
pozitivna korelacija. Ovo je period velikih
ekonomskih turbulencija i promjena, što je jedan od uzroka niske korelacije među posmatranim varijablama.
Međutim, ukoliko se posmatrani vremenski
period podijeli na dva subperioda, i to prvi do
pojave recesije (od 2004. do početka 2008.
godine) i subperiod od 2009. do 2012. godine, dobiće se potpuno drugačiji koeficijenti
korelacije.
Koeficijent korelacije za period 2004 2007. godina iznosi r1=0,992, što znači da u
ovom subperiodu postoji jaka pozitivna ko-
From the data presented it can be concluded
that the marked points that approximate the
regression line shows the tendency towards a
positive increase. This means that an increase
in the FDI inflow is followed by a growth of
GDP. This concludes the main purpose of regression analysis - a form of dependence between the growth of GDP and the FDI inflow.
Correlation analysis shall determine the intensity of dependence between the variables.
The correlation analysis coefficient shall be
calculated by the Pearson formula.
Firstly the overall correlation coefficient
is derived for the period from 2004 to 2012.
The overall correlation coefficient is r=0.183.
Therefore, in the given period there is a negligible positive correlation. This is a period
of great economic turbulences and changes,
which is one of the reasons for the low correlation between the variables observed.
However, if the given time period is divided
into two sub-periods, i.e. the first sub-period
lasting until the recession (from 2004 to the
beginning of 2008), and the second sub-period
starting from 2009 to 2012, a completely different correlation coefficients shall be shown.
The correlation coefficient for the period
2004 - 2007 is r1=0.992, which means that
there is a strong positive correlation between
19
G. Popović, M. Savić: UTICAJ STRANIH DIREKTNIH INVESTICIJA NA EKONOMSKI RAST...
relacija između toka priliva SDI i rasta bruto
domaćeg proizvoda.
Ako se posebno posmatra period 20092012. godina, koeficijent korelacije iznosi
r2=-0,237. Ovaj koeficijent nam pokazuje da
postoji negativna, ali zanemarljiva korelaciona veza između posmatranih varijabli.
Rezultati korelacione i regresione analize
ukazuju da između posmatranih pojava za
čitav posmatrani period postoji zanemarljiva pozitivna korelacija. U prvom stabilnijem
subperiodu zabilježena je jaka pozitivna korelacija, dok je drugi, znatno nestabilniji subperiod karakterističan po zanemarljivoj negativnoj korelaciji.
the FDI inflow and GDP growth in the given
sub-period.
If the period from 2009 to 2012 is observed specifically, the correlation coefficient is r2=-0.237. This ratio indicates that
there is a negative but an insignificant correlation between the variables observed.
The results of correlation and regression
analysis indicate that there is a negligible
positive correlation among the observed occurrences within the entire observed period.
A strong positive correlation was observed in
the first stable sub-period, while the second,
significantly less stable sub-period is characterized by a negligible negative correlation.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Investicije predstavljaju značajan faktor
podsticaja ekonomskog rasta i razvoja za
svaku zemlju. Pri tome nije primarno jesu li
investicije unutrašnjeg ili spoljnjeg porijekla,
posebno za otvorene ekonomije kakve su svakako privrede zemalja članica Evropske unije.
Smatra se da su strane direktne investicije
kao konstituent ukupnih investicija značajnije,
pa time i poželjnije od internih investicija jer
donose i brojne druge prednosti. Polazna hipoteza ovog rada se odnosi na dokazivanje korelativne veze između kretanja stranih direktnih
investicija i rasta društvenog proizvoda.
Kako je za ukupno posmatrani period utvrđena zanemarljiva i pozitivna korelacija,
može se konstatovati da je u određenoj mjeri
dokazana hipoteza da strane direktne investicije imaju određeni uticaj na rast u Evropskoj
uniji. Tačnije, pozitivna korelacija ukazuje na
određeni, ali ne značajan ili veliki doprinos
stranih direktnih investicija privrednom rastu.
Međutim, analize po subperiodima dodatno potvrđuju postavljenu hipotezu, jer je u ekonomski stabilnom subperiodu ostvarena jaka i pozitivna korelativna veza, što je potvrdilo hipotezu o značajnom
doprinosu stranih direktnih investicija rastu u Evropskoj uniji. Suprotno, u nestabilnom subperiodu zabilježena je negativna i zanemarljiva korelaciona veza
između stranih direktnih investicija i rasta GDP/BDP.
The investments represent an important incentive factor for economic growth and development of any country. Wherein it is not essential whether the investments are of internal or
external origin, especially for open economies
such as the economies of the European Union.
It is believed that Foreign Direct Investments
are a major constituent of the total investment,
therefore being more desirable than internal
investments since they bring other numerous
benefits as well. The initial hypothesis of this
paper refers to demonstrating correlations between FDI trends and GDP growth.
Since for the total observed period an insignificant and positive correlation was established, it can be concluded that the hypothesis of FDI having some impact on the EU
growth, has been proven to a certain extent.
To be more specific, a positive correlation indicates a certain, but not a significant or major
contribution of FDI to the economic growth.
However, the analyses by sub-periods additionally confirm the hypothesis, for a strong positive
correlation was generated in an economically stable sub-period, confirming the hypothesis of a significant contribution of FDI to the EU growth. In
contrast, a negative and insignificant correlation between Foreign Direct Investments and GDP growth
was recorded during the unstable sub-period.
20
G. Popović, M. Savić: IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH...
Na ovaj način su kompletirani relevantni
zaključci o kretanju stranih direktnih investicija i bruto domaćeg proizvoda Evropske
unije u različitim unutrašnjim i eksternim
(globalnim) okolnostima. Međusobne veze i
tendencije u kretanju ovih makroekonomskih
agregata, koeficijenata i pokazatelja su identične sa ključnim makroekonomskim teorijama, ali i relevantnom ekonomskom praksom.
In this manner, the relevant conclusions on the
Foreign Direct Investment trend and Gross Domestic Product of the European Union in a variety of internal and external (global) circumstances,
have been reached. The interconnections and tendencies of movements of such macroeconomic
aggregates, coefficients and indicators are identical to the key macroeconomic theories, but also
to the relevant economic practices.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
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Macroeconomics-A
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Statistička analiza - metodi i primjena.
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unije,
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aspekti
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zajedničke politike. Ekonomski fakultet u
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Macroeconomics-A
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S. (2005). Theory of Economic Growth and
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Heliks.
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Analysis - Methods and Applications.
Ekonomski fakultet Banja Luka.
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Cincinnati Ohio: College division SouthWestern Publishing Co.
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Popović, G. (2009). EU Economy,
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Samuelson P. & Nordhaus W. (1992).
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faktor ekonomskog uspeha nacija.
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razvoj. Sarajevo: TKD Šahinpašić
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analysis. McGraw-Hill.
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dohotka i bogatstva. Zagreb: Naprijed.
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Samuelson P. & Nordhaus W. (1992).
Economic growth as the most important
long-term factor in the economic success
of nations. McGraw-Hill.
Todaro, M.P. & Smit, S.C. (2006). Economic
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National Income and Wealth. Zagreb: Naprijed.
ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU:
U SVETLU KONCEPTA ODRŽIVOG RAZVOJA*
KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY:
WITH REGARDS TO THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT*
Prof. dr Petar Đukić
Univerzitet u Beogradu, Tehnološko-Metalurški fakultet Beograd
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy Belgrade
Izvorni naučni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402008DJ, UDK 340.137: 330.332.5 Original scientific paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Ako je ekonomija zasnovana na znanju
tajna savremenog društvenog razvoja, onda
nema dilema o tome koji proizvodni faktor je
dominantan u današnjoj strukturi i kompoziciji izvora ekonomske aktivnosti i napretka. Informacija je deo znanja i saznanja koji
se proteže na mnogo širu oblast društverne
stvarnosti nego što je tek zbirna ekonomska
aktivnost merena brutodomaćim proizvodom.
Svojevremeno nove teorijske sintagme kao što
su „postindustrijskoko društvo” „informatička era” (Danijerl Bel) ili, čak, „postkapitalističko društvo” (P. Drucker) samo su različite
refleksije iste ideje i stvarnosti.
Osnovna poruka tih teorija bila je da za rast
i razvoj nisu odlučujući materijalno i energetski obimne operacije, masa sredstava i materijalne tehnologije, već upravo obrnuto. U
današnjem ekonomskom sistemu u sve manjim materijalnim razmerama koncentrisana
je sve veća dodata tržišna vrednost. Ona se
ostvaruje u najvećoj meri znanjem, ali i osposobljavanjem ljudi da ga generišu, prenose i
koriste. Tehnologije u savremenom značenju,
predstavljaju spoj zanata, umeća, i nauke,
odnosno primenjeno znanje na tehnike proizvodnje i potrošnje, kao i na sve oblike društvenog života. One su danas sve više zasnovane na disperziji znanja, uključujići i nauku, a
sve manje na pukoj veštini i materijalima.
If knowledge-based economy is the actual secret of modern social development, then
there is no dilemma regarding which production factor is dominant in today’s structure and
composition of the sources of economic activity and progress. The information is a part of
knowledge and cognition that covers a much
wider area of social reality than an aggregate
economic activity as measured by Gross Domestic Product. Once new theoretical phrases
such as “Post-industrial society”, “computer
era” (Daniel Belle), or even “post-capitalist
society” (P. Drucker) are simply different reflections of the same idea and reality.
Basic message of those theories was that material and energy-demanding operations, scope
of material and material technologies were not
the crucial factor for growth and development,
but quite the opposite. In today’s economic system, in constantly decreasing material exchange
a continuously increasing market value is added. It is mainly achieved by knowledge, but also
by training people to generate, transmit and use
it. Technology in the modern sense represents a
combination of craft, skill, and science, i.e. applied knowledge in the techniques of production
and consumption, as well as on all forms of social life. They are now increasingly based on the
dispersion of knowledge, including science, and
less on sheer skill and materials.
* Ovaj rad rađen je u okviru projekta “Modeliranje
razvoja i integracije Srbije u svetske tokove u svetlu
ekonomskih, društvenih i političkih gibanja”, evidencioni broj 179038, koji finansira Ministarstvo za nauku
i tehnološki razvoj Republike Srbije
* This paper was made as a part of the project “Modeling
of Serbia’s development and integration into global trends
in light of the economic, social and political movement”
file number 179038, funded by the Ministry of Science and
Technological Development of Republic of Serbia.
23
P. Đukić: NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU: U SVETLU KONCEPTA ...
Tzv. postsocijalističke zemlje, za koje se
još uvek govori da su „u tranziciji” ka nekom novom drugačijem sistemu proizvodnje
i društvenih vrednosti, najvažniji korak u
tom velikom prelazu mogle bi da prevale
razumevanjem, usvajanjem i institucionalnom organizacijom ekonomski zasnovanoj
na znanju.
The so-called post-communist countries,
which are still considered as being “in a transition process” to a new, different system of
production and social values, could overcome
the most important step in such great transition by understanding, acquisition and institutional organization economically based on
knowledge.
Ključne riječi: proizvodni faktori, ekonomski
razvoj, savremene i tradicionalne tehnologije,
organizacija znanja, informacije, tranzicija,
reforme zemalja JIE
Keywords: production factors, economic
development,
modern
and
traditional
technologies,
knowledge
organization,
information, transition, reform of SEE countries
EKONOMIJA ZASNOVANA NA ZNANJU
KAO NOV NAČIN RAZMIŠLJANJA
KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMY AS A
NEW METHOD OF THINKING
Prava eksplozija sektora usluga i njihova
disperzija, sa jedne strane, kao i promena
odnosa uloga poslovnog i javnog sektora,
posebno rast nevladinog sektora, civilnog
društva, predstavljaju promene koje sve više
oblikuju ne samo današnji privredni život
već i ekonomsku budućnost ljudi. Pri tome
treba imati u vidu da se „...nova svetska privreda odlikuje radikalno drugačijim sistemima poslovanja, od kojih mnogi nemaju
veze sa internetom i uskim konceptom ‘nove
ekonomije’ koji je postao njen deo. Nova
svetska privreda je pre nov način razmišljanja koji su omogućili privredna i tehnološka
revolucija.“ (Rišar, 2008, str. 39).
Iz toga nikako ne bi trebalo izvlačiti zaključke da su ostali faktori kao što su kapital
(finansijski, ljudski, prirodni) infrastruktura ili prirodni resursi nebitni. Šta više, prethodno ostvarena sve snažnija dominacija
proizvodnje usluga umesto dobara, pokazalo se, u vreme ekonomskih kriza učinila je
mnoge ekonomije u većoj meri ranjivim na
finansijske stresove, monatarne krize, kao
i na generalni pad tražnje. Zaposlenost u
ekonomiji zasnovanoj na znanju lako može
da se poremeti, a pojedine usluge brzo da se
pokažu kao manje-više nepotrebne, u stanju
smanjenja dohotka ili pesimističke percepcije neposredne budućnosti. Upravo takve
tendencije oborile su ekonomsku aktivnost
An “explosion” of the service sector and its
dispersion on one hand, and changes in the balance of business and public sector, particularly
regarding the growth of the NGO sector and civil society, represent the changes that increasingly mould not only the today’s economy life but
also the economic future of people. It should be
borne in mind that “... the new world economy
is characterized by a radically different business systems, many of which have nothing to do
with the Internet and the narrow concept of the
‘new economy’ that has become its integral part.
The new global economy is rather a new way of
thinking that made possible the economic and
technological revolution.” (Rišar, 2008, p. 39).
Certainly, the above statement should not
be used to draw the conclusions that other
factors, such as resources (financial, human,
natural) or infrastructure are irrelevant. Moreover, the previously established, increasingly potent domination of service production
instead of goods during the economic crisis
has, as it turned out, made many economies
more vulnerable to financial stress, monetary
crises, and to a general decline in demand.
The employment in a knowledge-based
economy can easily be disrupted, while certain services may quickly prove to be more
or less redundant, in order to reduce the income or a pessimistic perception of the near
future. Such tendency brought reduced eco-
24
P. Đukić: KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE...
u većoj meri nego što se očekivalo u prvom
(2009) kao i u drugom talasu krize koji je,
posebno pogodio Evropu počevši 2011. godine, sa slabim izgledima da se okonča tekuće godine.
Fleksibilizacija ekonomske strukture,
radnog vremena, drugačija struktura ekonomskih faktora – to je nova činjenica koja
je dobila i poseban sadržaj tokom globalne
ekonomske krize. Zemlje, koje su u strukturi svog BDP imale veće učešće materijalne
proizvodnje, industrije ili koje su sopstvenu
ekonomiju i izvoz u većoj meri zasnivale
na prirodnim resursima (kao što su zemlje
BRIKSA), pokazalo se, bile su otpornije na
globalne krizne tokove i izazove finansijsih
turbulencija.
Još jedna bitna činjenica od značaja na
ekonomsku aktivnost dolazi do izražaja uprkos izmenjenoj strukturi ekonomije koja se
zasniva na znanju. Naime prirodni resursi
naročito energenti, kako neobnovljivi tako i
obnovljivi, kao i obradivo zemljište, vodotokovi itd. u današnjoj ekonomiji postaju sve
značajnija pretprostavka razvoja. Naravno
ne i dovoljna.
Naime, ako je nekada obilje prirodnih izvora važilo za preovlađujući faktor, moderna
epoha tehnologije i sve većeg oslonca na
znanje, naročito u drugoj polovini XX veka,
relativizovala je prirodni faktor. Međutim, narasli energetski problemi, zagađenje i degradacija životne sredine, kao i oskudica većine
prirodnih resursa (nedovoljnost obradivog
zemljišta, kvalitet i raspoloživost vode, šuma
itd.) ponovo postaju veoma urgentni za ljudsku populaciju, pa i njen opstanak i (održivi)
razvoj. Sledeće bitne činjenice uslovljavaju
ovakvo stanje:
1. jedna je eksplanzija ljudske populacije
koja je u prvoj deceniji XXI veka već,
prešla preko 7 milijardi sa velikim izgledima da dostigne 9,5 milijardi do 2040.
godine. Međutim, projekcije Rimskog
kluba govore da bi maksimum oko 2040.
godine mogao da iznosi samo nešto preko
8 milijardi, nakon čega bi globalna populacija neko vreme stagnirala i onda počela
nomic activity more than initially expected
in the first (2009) and in the second wave of
the crisis that particularly struck Europe in
2011 and with little prospect to end by the
end of the current year.
Flexibilisation of economic structure,
working hours, a different structure of economic factors - it is a new fact that got a
special content during the global economic
crisis. The countries that, in the structure of
their GDP had an increased share of material
production, industry or which mainly based
their own economy and exports on natural
resources (such as BRICS countries), were,
as it turned out, more resistant to the global
crisis trends and challenges posed by financial turbulence.
Another important fact of importance for the
economic activity is accentuated despite the
modified structure of the knowledge-based
economy. The natural resources, particularly energy sources, both of non-renewable
and renewable energy, as well as arable land,
water flows, etc. are becoming increasingly
important development factor. Of course, not
completely sufficient by itself.
Namely, although the abundance of natural resources was used to be considered as the predominant factor, the modern era of technology and the
increasing reliance on knowledge, particularly in
the second half of the 20th century, relativized
the natural factor. However, increased energy
problems, pollution and environmental degradation, as well as the lack of most natural resources
(insufficient arable land, bad quality and lack of
water, forests, etc.) are, once more, becoming extremely important for the human population and
its survival and (sustainable) development. The
following important facts cause such situation:
1. the first one being the rapid expansion of the
human population in the first decade of the
XXI century. The world’s population has
already exceeded the 7 billion mark, with
great prospects to reach 9.5 billion by 2040.
However, the estimate made by the Club of
Rome says that a maximum of just above
8 billion people would be reached by 2040,
followed by a stagnation and later deteriora25
P. Đukić: NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU: U SVETLU KONCEPTA ...
lagano da opada.1 Bez obzira na smanjenje globalne stope priraštaja stanovništva,
kao i kontroverze na drugoj strani oko depopulacije i starenja stanovništva jednog
dela Planete, demografski faktor sve više
potencira značaj ograničenih prirodnih resursa;
2. druga bitna činjenica je rast ljudskih
potreba i način njihovog zadovoljavanja, koji zahteva sve više materijalnih
potrošnih dobara i energije po stanovniku. To je višestruki izazov, koji se tiče
održivosti kako prekomerne upotrebe
prostora i prirodnih resursa tako i degradacije životne sredine (Goodstain,
2003, str. 37-86; Kanton, 2010, str. 158;
Đukić, 2011, str. 147);
3. treći faktor su klimatske i druge promene
koje smanjnuju izdašnost zemlje i drugih
prirodnih resursa za sve veći broj ljudi. Na
taj način preostaje da se globalna ekonomija bitno restrukturira i pripremi za nove
ogromne troškove globalnog otopljenja,
sadržane u problemima migracija priobalne populacije, vodosnabdevanja, hrane,
klimatizacije (Đukić, 2011a, str. 11-40).
Sve u svemu, treba verovati da će prirodni faktor opstanka i razvoja čoveka u
ekonomskoj aktivnosti dobijati na značaju.
Međutim, tu se krije još jedna bitna odrednica za situiranje ekonomije znanja. Naime,
prirodni faktor može biti od manje ili veće
koristi za neku populaciju samo u kombinaciji prirodnih resursa i odgovarajućih
sposobnosti za postupanje sa njima. Znanje
kao faktor ekonomije i svih ostalih faktora doprinosi boljem i efikasnijem korišćenju prirodnih prednosti, posebno vode, ze-
tion of the global population.1 Regardless of
the decrease in the global rate of population
growth, as well as of the controversies arising in respect to the depopulation and aging
population of one part of the planet, the demographic factor increasingly accentuated
the importance of limited natural resources;
2. the second important fact is the growth
of human needs and ways to fulfil them,
which require more tangible consumer
goods and energy consumption per capita. It is a multiple challenge that concerns
sustainability both of the excessive use of
land and natural resources and environmental degradation as well (Goodstain,
2003, p. 37-86; Kanton, 2009, p. 158;
Đukić, 2011, p. 147);
3. The third factor is climate and other changes which reduce the land yield and other
natural resources for the constantly growing population. What remains is to significantly restructure the global economy and
prepare for new great cost of global warming, contained in the migration problems
of coastal populations, water, food and air
conditioning (Đukić, 2011a, p. 11-40 ).
All in all, it is to expect that the natural factor of
human survival and development in the economic activities shall gain in importance. However,
there lies another important determinant for the
positioning of the knowledge economy. Namely, the natural factor can be more or less useful
for a population only if used in a combination
of natural resources and corresponding abilities
for their handling. Knowledge as an economical factor and a constituent part of all the other
factors contributes to a better and more efficient
use of natural resources, especially water, land,
1 Rimski klub je 1972. godine, objavio studiju „Granice rasta“. Više puta je iznosio svoje prognoze i viđenja razvoja čovečanstva. U najnovijem izveštaju pod
naslovom „2052“ tvrdi se da će globalni rast svetskog
stanovništva početi da stagnira ranije nego što se očekivalo, usled dramatičnog smanjenja broja novorođenih
u gradskom stanovništvu. Broj stanovnika naše planete
će 2040. dostići najviši nivo sa 8,1 milijardom ljudi,
a zatim će početi da opada, a „svetski bruto domaći
proizvod će takođe rasti sporije nego što se očekivalo,
jer će se smanjivati i rast proizvodnje” (The Club of
Rome, 2012).
1 Rimski klub je 1972. godine, objavio studiju „Granice rasta“. Više puta je iznosio svoje prognoze i viđenja
razvoja čovečanstva. U najnovijem izveštaju pod naslovom „2052“ tvrdi se da će globalni rast svetskog stanovništva početi da stagnira ranije nego što se očekivalo, usled dramatičnog smanjenja broja novorođenih u
gradskom stanovništvu. Broj stanovnika naše planete
će 2040. dostići najviši nivo sa 8,1 milijardom ljudi,
a zatim će početi da opada, a „svetski bruto domaći
proizvod će takođe rasti sporije nego što se očekivalo,
jer će se smanjivati i rast proizvodnje” (http://www.
clubofrome.org/?p=2107, pristup maja 2012.
26
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mljišta, energije, prostora, biodiverziteta...
S tim u vezi, poseban značaj na dugi rok
ima ekološko znanje i kapacitet zajednice
i okruženja da generišu održivi razvoj, u
kome čovek i njegova zajednica mogu da
smanje ekološki pritisak i podrže ekološku
ravnotežu proizvodnih i ostalih procesa života, ljudi i ekosistema. U najužem smislu
ekologija, kao nauka o odnosu živog sveta
prema životnoj sredini, ondnosno o ekosistemima u širem smislu, dakle i o društvu,
odnosno prirodnoj i društvenoj ekonomiji,
u velikoj meri pomaže ljudima da prebrode
teškoće poremećaja lanaca života i ishrane,
energetskih bilansa, voda, zemlje i staništa
(Bibi & Brenan, 2008, str. 365).
energy, space, biodiversity... With regards to the
above, a special long-term significance is given to environmental knowledge and capacity of
the community and the environment to generate
sustainable development, in which a man and
his community can reduce the environmental
pressure and support the environmental balance
of production and other processes of life, people
and ecosystems. In the narrowest sense, ecology,
as a science studying the relationship of the living world towards the environment, i.e. of ecosystems in the wider sense, including the society
and the natural and social economy, greatly helps
people to overcome the difficulties of disorders of
life and nutrition chains, energy balance, water,
land and habitats (Bibi & Brennan, 2008, p. 365).
ZNANJE KAO PRODUKTIVNI FAKTOR U
TEORIJSKOJ EKONOMIJI
KNOWLEDGE AS A PRODUCTIVE
FACTOR IN THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
Od Adama Smita, rodonačelnika moderne
ekonomske misli, pa na ovamo, teorija proizvodnje ekonomske vrednosti i strukture
proizvodnih faktora u stalnom su preispitivanju. Jedan deo novih ideja treba pripisati
ideologijama, ali se mnoge brže i značajnije
promene u razumevanja produktivnosti i tržišnih vrednosti dešavaju upravo kao rezultat napretka tehnologije, tržišnih struktura,
razvoja potreba i specifičnosti odnosa prema
prirodi i životnoj sredini (Drucker, 1995;
Kanton, 2009).
Naime, od Smita, preko, Rikarda, Mila,
Marksa, pa do Alfreda Maršala, sistem ekonomske analize bio je preokupiran onim što
jeste (pozitivnim činjenicama aktuelnog privrednog života) odnosima na tržištu, promenama u sistemu proizvodnje čemu su doprinosile tehnologija, društvena i međunarodna
podela rada, globalna trgovina, sa jedne strane, ali i socijalnim implikacijama, odnosno
društvenim vrednostima koje su stajale iza
ekonomske aktivnosti (posebno marksizam).
Tako su klasičnim smitovskim faktorima
proizvodnje kao što su rad, kapital i zemlja,
pojedini autori dodavali uticaj preduzetništva Kantijon, Sej, kasnije Šumpeter, ili „organizacije“ kako je skoro isti taj faktor na-
From the time of Adam Smith, the founder
of modern economic thought, to this day, the
theory of production of economic value and the
structure of production factors are in constant
reconsideration. A part of the new ideas should
be attributed to ideologies, but many more rapid
and more significant changes in the understanding of productivity and market values occur as a
result of advances in technology, market structures, development of needs and the specifics of
the relationship towards nature and the environment (Drucker, 1995; Kanton, 2009).
Namely, from Smith through Ricardo
Mill, Marx to Alfred Marshall, the system
of economic analysis has been preoccupied by what it actually is (positive facts
of current economic life), relationships on
the market, changes in the production system, which were influenced by technology,
social and international division of labour
and global trade, on one hand, and social
implications, i.e. social values that have
supported economic activities (particularly
Marxism). Thus, certain authors (Cantillon,
Say, Schumpeter) added the impact of entrepreneurship, or “organizations” as Alfred
Marshall named the same factor, to classic
Smith factors of production, such as labour,
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zvao Alfred Maršal (Marshall, 1987, str. 378;
Drucker, 1993).
U marskističkoj interpretaciji, u skladu sa
ideološkim i socio-ekonomskim razumevanjem kapitalističkog sistema proizvodnje,
jedino rad (u raznim formama, kao „minuli“, „živi“, opredmećeni, odnosno onaj „apstraktni“ - u analitičkom smislu) označen je
kao tvorac vrednosti, dok sve ostalo, kao što
je kapital u svim formama, novac ili zemlja,
odnosno priroda, postoji samo kao pretpostavka proizvodnje, ili puka sredstva za proizvodnju, sredstva rada i predmeti rada (sirovine, materijal, energija, valjda i priroda u
tom smislu kao izvor i srovina) kojima opet
samo ljudski rad pridaje vrednost. Na stranu logičke nedoslednosti i nekonsekventnost
pri poimanju tog i takvog „apstraktnog“ ali
društveno-potrebnog rada, ali je problem što
relativno obilni materijali i sirovine, po sebi
(voda, vazduh, geografski prostor, geografska pozicija, morska obala, jezera i planine,
pa i rudna nalazišta i rezerve energenata)
prema takvim „klasičnim“ teorijama nemaju vrednost kako sa marskističkog stanovišta
tako i sa stanovišta teorije retkosti klasičnih
ekonomista. Razume se samo dotle dok su
obilna i dok ne dobiju vrednost kao oskudna
i tražena dobra, čija marginalna korisnost raste sa stepenom retkosti.
Vratimo se za trenutak Smitu. On smatra da
prema „prirodnom toku stvari, veći deo kapitala svakog društva koje raste upućen je na
poljoprivredu, zatim na manufakturu, i najzad
na spoljnu trgovinu“. Ali ovaj prirodni poredak je „morao biti preokrenut u svim modernim državama Evrope“, pošto je „spoljna
trgovina nekih gradova uvele sve njihove fine
manufakture ili one koje su bile prikladne za
prodaju na udaljenim tržištima“ (Smith, 1970,
str. 536-537). Ovi kratki citati naveni su samo
radi ilustracije da se o nekoj vrsti „nove ekonomije“ koja menja prirodni poredak stvari razmišljalo još u vreme Adama Smita. To
nije slučajno pošto je kraj XVII veka upravo
bio period početka nove tehnološke ere u kojoj je masovna manufakturna (industrijska )
proizvodnja u sprezi sa spoljnom trgovinom
28
capital and the land (Marshall, 1987, p. 378;
Drucker, 1993 ).
According to the Marxist interpretation, in accordance with the ideological and social-economic
understanding of the capitalist production system,
only work/labour (in various forms, such as “past
work”, “human labour”, embodied labour, and the
“abstract work” - in an analytical sense) is designated as the creator of value, while everything
else, such as the capital in all the forms, money,
land, or nature, exists only as a presumption of
production or means of production, means of labour and objects of labour (raw materials, supplies, energy, and nature in the sense as the source
of raw materials) which are valued only with
the introduction of human labour. While leaving
aside all the logical inconsistencies in conceiving
such “abstract” but socially - necessary labour, the
problem is that relatively abundant supplies and
raw materials (water, air, geographical area, geographical position, seashore, lakes and mountains,
mineral deposits and energy reserves) have no
value by itself according to such “classic” theories either from the Marxist standpoint or from the
standpoint of the rarity theory supported by classic economists. Of course, the above stands only
while the supplies and materials are abundant and
until they are valued as scarce and sought goods,
whose marginal usefulness is increased on the basis of the rarity level.
Let us return to Smith for a moment. He believes that by “natural course of things, the greater part of the capital of every growing society is
focused onto agriculture, then onto the manufacture, and finally to foreign trade.” But this natural order “had to be reversed in all the modern
countries of Europe”, since Smith believes that,
to some cities, foreign trade brought development of manufactures which were suitable for
trade with very distant markets (Smith, 1970, p.
536-537). These short quotes were given only as
an illustration that a “new economy” that changes
the natural order of things was considered even in
the time of Adam Smith. It is not a coincidence
since the end of the seventeenth century was a
period of beginning of a new technological era
in which a mass (industrial) production was in
conjunction with foreign trade and as such it took
P. Đukić: KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE...
preuzimala primat poljoprivredi ili, jednostavnije rečeno, korisnicima prirodnih faktora proizvodnje, odnosno primarnom sektoru
proizvodnje sirovina i bazne hrane.
Kako klasična, tako i markistsička teorija
proizvodnje i vrednosti, odnosno marginalne
korisnosti, ne daju odgovore na mnoga savremena pitanja privrednog razvoja, ali to se, u
kontekstu tadašnjih ekonomskih, tehnoloških
socijalnih i demografskih pa i prirodnih činjenica, od njih nije ni moglo očekivati. Sasvim
je drugačija stvar sa potonjim i današnjim
ekonomskim, tehnološkim i razvojnim činjenicama. Svet proizvodnje i tehnologije se, u
svakom slučaju, menjao daleko brže nego
teorija o tim promenama i novim faktorima
društvenog razvoja.
Tehnologija je pružala mnogo, ali je dobijala i zastrašujuće potencijale. Engleskog književika Oldusa Hakslija je veoma interesovala
optimistička slika budućnosti, tako popularna
početkom XX veka, pa je već 1932. godine
objavio roman „Vrli novi svet“ u kome je
predstavio valjda prvu antiutopiju ekonomije
zasnovane na znanju. Naime, sumorna priča
njegovog romna predviđa takav spoj reproduktivne tehnologije i „učenja u snu“ koji dovodi do razvoja i stvaranja „novog društva“,
pred kojim je čovek ništa, a sistem sve. Radnja se odvija u Londonu, ali su ideje inspirisane američkim iskustvom snažnog organizacionog, tehnološog i industrijskog razvoja,
u kome se znanje povezuje sa novim nehumanim karakterom ekonomskog i društvenog
sistema.
Karakter i sadržaj ekonomske aktivnosti
menjaju se relativno brzo, u skladu sa dinamičnom proizvodnjom novih potreba. Tako je
nastala i jedna neobična knjiga Alvina Toflera
„Šok budućnosti“ (1972), koja je poslužila
kao sintagma osećaja za brzinu promena. Tofler je dokazivao da dolazeće društvo nudi neveverovatno intenzivne i brze promene, pravu
revoluciju od industrijskog ka „superindustrijskom društvu“, koje će donositi „suviše
brze promene u suviše kratkim intervalima“.
Promene će brzinom i novinama šokirati ljude, tako da će mnogi patiti od nesnalaženja,
over the primacy from the agriculture or, to put it
more simply, from the users of natural production
factors, i.e. the primary sector of raw materials
production and basic food production.
Both classic and Marxist theory of production and value, or of marginal utility, do not
provide answers to many contemporary issues
of economic development, but such action, in
the context of the former economic, technological, social, demographic and even natural facts,
could not have been expected. As for the latter
and today’s economic, technological, and developmental facts, the situation is completely different. The world of production and technology,
in any case, has been changing far quicker than
the theory on those changes and new factors of
social development.
The technology provided many things, but it
also gained frightening potential. English author
Aldous Huxley became very interested in optimistic picture of the future, which was very popular in the early twentieth century. Therefore, in
1932 he published the novel “Brave New World”
in which he introduced the allegedly first dystopia
of knowledge-based economy. Namely, the grim
story of his novel predicts a connection between
reproductive technology and “dream learning”
that leads to the development and creation of a
“new society”, in which a man is nothing, while
the system is everything. The plot takes place in
London, but the ideas were inspired by the American experience of a potent organisational, technological and industrial development, in which
the knowledge is associated with the new inhuman character of the economic and social system.
The character and content of economic activities are changing relatively rapidly, in accordance with the dynamic production of new needs.
This created an unusual book by Alvin Toffler,
“Future Shock” (1972), which served as the
syntagm of senses for the pace of the changes.
Toffler argued that the incoming society offers
incredibly intense and rapid changes, a true revolution from an industrial to a “superindustral
society” that will bring “too rapid changes in too
short intervals.” The changes shall shock people by their pace and innovations, so that many
people will suffer from disorientation, which is
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što se uveliko danas i dešava kao informatičko nesnalaženje dela starije poppulacije širom
sveta. To, razume se, donosi i različite troškove i uslove života, kod neprilagođenih u odnosu na prilagođene.
Faktor znanja kao pretpostravka razvoja
povezuje se sve više sa dinamikom savremenog razvoja. Ekonomisti danas idu veoma daleko od klasičara pa u faktore savremenog razvoja ubrajaju ljudski kapital,
prirodne resurse i „tehnološke promene i
inovacije“. Tako, na primer, Samjuelson i
Nordhaus smatraju da je to „najvažniji točak za tehnološki napredak“a kao ključne
podsticaje za ovaj razvojni stub vide „oponašanje tehnologije“ i „preduzetništvo i inovacije“ (Samuleson & Nordhaus 2010, str.
583). Ova poslednja sintagma predstavlja
i naslov čuvene studije američkog pisca nemačkog porekla Petera Druckera, u kojoj
on na obiman i sistematičan način istražuje
istorijsku, globalnu, empirijsko-teorijsku
težinu inovacija u kombinaciji sa preduzetničkim faktorom kao izvorom ekonomskog
rasta i zapošljavanja, širom sveta (Drucker,
1993, str. 150-162).
largely what is happening today as an IT disorientation of the older population worldwide.
This, of course, entails different costs and living conditions with the unadapted population in
comparison to the adapted ones.
The knowledge factor, as a presumption of
development is increasingly associated with the
pace of modern development. The economists
today are distancing themselves from the classic experts and include human resources, natural
resources and “technological change and innovation.” as contemporary development factors.
Samuelson and Nordhaus, for example, find that
it is “the most important wheel for technological
advancement” while they perceive “the emulation of technology” and “entrepreneurship and
innovation” as the major incentive for such pillar
of development (Samuelsson & Nordhaus 2010,
p. 583). This last phrase is also the title of the
famous study of an American writer of German
origin - Peter Drucker, in which he, in an extensive and systematic manner, explores the historical, global, empirical and theoretical difficulty of
innovation combined with entrepreneurial factor
as a source of economic growth and employment
around the world (Drucker , 1993, p . 150-162).
EKONOMIJA ZASNOVANA NA ZNANJU I
ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ
KNOWLEDGE BASED ECONOMY AND
SUSTINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Kada se (najpre u političkoj) teoriji i
praksi pojavio pomalo magloviti koncept
održivog razvoja, malo ko je direktno povezivao ovu sintagmu sa idejom nove ekonomije ili ekonomije zasnovane na znanju.
Naime, i pored činjenice da je u jednom
zvaničnom izveštaju OUN već 1987. godine (Uor Common Future) održivi razvoj
definisan kao „razvoj u pravcu zadovoljavanja potreba sadašnjih generacija koji ne
ugrožava mogućnost budućim generacijama da zadovolje svoje potrebe“. Na konferenciji Organizacije ujedinjenih nacija o
životnoj sredini i razvoju u Rio de Žaneiru
1992. godini usvojena je tzv. Rio deklaracija. Međutim, sam pojam održivog razvoja
nije stavljen u originalni naslov deklaracije,
koja glasi „Rio deklaracija o životnoj sre-
When a somewhat hazy concept of sustainable development appeared in (political) theory and practice, few people directly linked this
phrase with the idea of a new economy or knowledge-based economy. Namely, despite the fact
that in an official report for the UN in 1987 (Our
Common Future) the sustainable development
was defined as “development toward meeting the
needs of present generations without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs.” At the United Nations Convention
on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 a so-called Rio Declaration was
adopted. However, the concept of sustainable development was not placed in the original title of
the declaration, which reads “Rio Declaration on
Environment and Development.” The sustainable
development is mentioned in a rather short text
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dini i razvoju“. Održivi razvoj se provlači
kroz neveliki tekst Deklaracije koja sadrži
27 načela održivog razvoja i preporučuje
da svaka zemlja uradi „sopstvenu nacionalnu strategiju održivog razvoja“ kako bi
se ostvarivali zajednički definisani ciljevi.
Ali, ključni i najvažniji princip je princio
br. 1. Deklaracije koji poručuje „da su ljudska bića u centru brige za održivi razvoj“
jer „ljudi imaju pravo na zdrav i produktivan život, u skladu sa prirodom“ (Rio Declaration UN, 1992). U ovom principu krije
se specifičnost humanog pristupa koncepta
kojim se pokušava izbeći apstraktni ili tzv.
radikalni ekologizam (u smislu zaštite i čuvanja prirode i resursa) kao cilja po sebi,
van vizure humanog razvoja i percepcije
budućnosti čovečanstva.
Kasnija teorija i praksa održivog razvoja
na izvestan način nametnula se gotovo svim
vrstama eksperata koji su se bavili globalnim ekonomskim, socijalnim, ekološkim,
zdravstrvenim, tehnološkim i drugim aspektima razvoja, tako da je lista različitih definicija principa „održivosti“ prilično duga, ali
se uglavnom konkretno mnogo više govori o
„neodrživosti“. Konačno, sledeće dve konferencije OUN (Rio +10 u Johanezburgu i Rio
+ 20 u Rio de Žaneiru) obe su nominovane
kao konferencije OUN posvećene održivom
razvoju.
Negde početkom III milenijuma, a nakon konferencije u Johanezburgu, počinje
težnja ka primeni „integralnog konceprata
održivog razvoja“ zasnivanog na modelu
tri stuba održivosti: ekonomskom, socijalnom i ekološkom. Razume se da je u
okviru ovih stubova bitno naći mesto za
institucionalnu i tehnološku održivost, kao
i za specifične sadržaje održivog gospodarenja prirodnim resursima. Pri tome se
u prepoznavanju održivosti sve više koristi test preklapanja tri sfere održivosti:
ekonomske socijalne i ekološke, a koristi
i čitav niz indikatora (starih i inoviranih)
održivog razvoja, počev od stanja životne sredine, dostupnosti i kvaliteta vode za
piće, do pristupu obrazovanju, zaštite ma-
of the Declaration, which contained 27 principles
of sustainable development and recommended
that each country should prepare its own “National Strategy for Sustainable Development” in
order to accomplish jointly defined objectives.
However, the key and most important principle
is principle no.1 of the Declaration, which says
that “human beings are at the centre of concerns
for sustainable development” because “people
have a right to a healthy and productive life in
harmony with nature “ (Rio Declaration of the
UN, 1992). This principle contains the specificity
of the human approach to the concept that tries
to avoid the abstract or so called radical environmentalism (in terms of the protection and preservation of nature and resources) as a goal in itself,
beyond the point of view of human development
and perception of the future of humanity.
Subsequent theory and practice of sustainable development was in a way asserted to all
the types of experts dealing with global economic, social, environmental, health, technological and other aspects of development,
so that the list of different definitions of the
“sustainability” principle is rather long, but
the discussion mainly deals much more with
the “unsustainability”. Finally, the following
two UN Conferences (Rio +10 in Johannesburg and Rio+ 20 in Rio de Janeiro) were both
nominated as UN conferences dedicated to
sustainable development.
Somewhere at the beginning of III millennium, after the conference in Johannesburg, began
the pursuit of the implementation of “integrated
sustainable development concept” based on the
model of three pillars of sustainability: economic,
social and environmental. Of course, within these
pillars it is essential to find a place for institutional and technological sustainability, as well as for
the specific features of sustainable management of
natural resources. In the process of the recognition
of sustainability, there is an increased use of the
test of three overlapping spheres of sustainability: economic, social and environmental, with the
use of a range of indicators (both already existing
and innovated ones) of sustainable development,
ranging from the environment condition, availability and quality of drinking water, access to ed31
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njinskih prava, zdravstvene i socijalne zaštite. Možda najvažniji faktor uspostavljanja modela održivog razvoja na duge staze
predstavljaju obrazovanje i izgrađenost
instritucija (Đukić, 2011, str. 312).
Najveća vrednost druge konferencije o održivom razvoju (Johanezburg 2002) je činjenica da su za istim konferencijskim stolom
i sa istim mogućnostima sedeli predstavnici
političkog, poslovnog i eksprtskog života,
odnosno vladinog i nevladinog sektora. Princip participativnosti u koncipiranju održivog
razvoja isto je toliko bitan kao i princip međugeneracijske pravde ili princip „zagađivač-korisnik plaća“. Naime, održivi razvoj se
može trasirati u naučnim timovima, prihavatati i promovisati među političarima, normativizovati i ozakoniti pravnim institucijama,
ali se definitivno mora sprovoditi u život zahvaljujući učešću poslovnog sektora, velikih
i malih kompanija širom sveta, kao i ponašanjem građana (Đukić, 2011, str. 317).
Već na trećoj po redu svetskoj konferenciji UN RIO + 20 osećao se krizni „zamor
materijala“ pa je i rasprava o održivom razvoju tekla više manje u znaku „zelene ekonomije“ i pokušaja sveta da izađe na kraj
sa prvom velikom globalnom krizom koja
se dešava u XXI veku. To je orijentisalo i
održivi razvoj ka ekonomskim sadržajima i
mogućnostima da se kreiraju „zelena radna
mesta“ „zelene investicije“ i druge antikrizne mere. Međutim, dobra stvar je što se na
tom skupu svet zapitao, možda i silom prilika, šta i kako dalje sa strukturnim merama
nakon izlaska iz krize.
Naime, postojeće model rasta, trgovine,
tehnološkog tazvoja današnjice nije dovoljno održiv, niti u društveno-ekonomskom, niti u ekološkom smislu. Učesnici
samita u Riju 2012. godine bar su se zamislili kuda takav način vodi dalje i da li će
opet doći do strukturne krize, izazvane neusaglašenim merama i podsticajima rasta
radi samog rasta, što je „ideologija ćelije
raka“ (Lester Braun).
Međutim, rast je bio i ostao pretpostavka svakog, a, naročito, održivog razvoja.
32
ucation, protection of minority rights, health and
social care. Perhaps the most important factor in
establishing the model of sustainable development
in the long run are the education and the completeness of the institutions (Đukić, 2011, p. 312).
The greatest value of the second Conference on
Sustainable Development (Johannesburg 2002) is
the fact that the representatives of political, business and expert segment, i.e. both governmental
and non-governmental sectors sat at the same conference table with the same capabilities. The principle of participation in the creation of sustainable
development is just as important as the principle of
intergenerational justice or the “Polluter Pays Principle”. In other words, sustainable development
can be traced in the scientific teams, accepted and
promoted among the politicians, standardised and
validated by legal institutions, but it definitely has
to be implemented in the life process through the
participation of the business sector, large and small
companies around the world, as well as through
the behaviour of citizens (Đukić, 2011 p. 317)
By the third consecutive World Conference
of the UN RIO +20 “a fatigue of material” was
evident, therefore directing the sustainable development discussion more or less towards the
“green economy” and the attempts of the world
to deal with the first major global crisis arising in 21st century. It oriented the sustainable
development towards economic content and
opportunities to create “green jobs”, “green
investments” and other anti-crisis measures.
However, the good thing is that, at this meeting, the world wondered, perhaps forced by the
circumstances, what and how to proceed with
structural measures after the crisis.
Namely, the current model of growth, trade,
technological development of today is not sustainable enough, nor in the social-economic or
in environmental sense. The participants of the
summit in Rio 2012 have at least thought about
where such method was leading and whether
there will again be a structural crisis caused by
conflicting measures and incentives of growth
for the purpose of growth in itself , which is “the
ideology of the cancer cell” (Lester Brown).
However, the growth has been and still is the
assumption of every development, particularly
P. Đukić: KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE...
Evolucija znanja kao određujućeg faktora produktivnosti odigrala se veoma brzo.
Nobelovac Džejms Tobin skrenuo je najpre pažnju da je u naprednijim ekonomijama već sedamdesetih godina XX veka
doprinos radne snage i kapitala ekonomskom rastu bio svega 12%, a znanje je produktivnosti doprinosilo preko 80%. Ta tendencija bila je najprisutnija u Japanu gde
je preko 95% rasta dolazilo od znanja, a
samo 5% od ostalih faktora. Onda su se javili već pomenuti socijalni teoretičari kao
što je bio Danijel Bel, Alvin Tofler, Drucker koji su oblikovali koncept privrede zasnovane na znanju.
Evo podataka koji bi donekle govorili o
velikim promenama nastalim u strukturi korišćenja i doprinosu pojedinih proizvodnih faktora produktivnosti rada i drugih faktora. Godine 1950. je u proizvodnji
(industrija, poljoprivreda itd.) najrazvijenijih industrijskih zemalja bilo zaposleno:
u Francuskoj 61,6%, u Nemačkoj 66,3%,
u Japanu 68,9%, Velikoj Britaniji 50,9%,
a u SAD svega 43,7% radnika. Već 1970.
godine taj procenat se smanjuje i kreće se
od 32% za SAD do 53% za Japan. Kraj
XX veka ubrzava taj proces restrukturiranja zaposlenosti tako da usled rasta produktivnosti u proizvodnji, ali i sve veće uloge
obrazovanja, naučnoistraživačkog rada u
tome, zaposlenost u proizvodnji se kreće
od 21,8% (SAD) do 41% (Japan). Tokom
ovog perioda izuzetno je rastao procenat
zaposlenih u tržišnim i ne-tržišnim uslugama. Udeo radne snage u uslužnom sektoru
1950. godine kretao se od 31% (Japan) do
56% (SAD). Ali je 1995. godine taj procenat narastao od 59% (Japan) do čak 78%
(SAD) (Crafts, 2000). Istraživanja ključnih
faktora rasta najrazvijenijih zemalja još tokom druge polovine XX veka ubedljivo su
pokazala da je u njihovoj strukturi došlo do
bitne promene, tako da su klasični materijalni faktori kao što su rad i kapital smanjili učešće u vrednosti angažovanih faktora,
ali ne zbog oskudice, već zbog činjenice da
su nematerijalni faktori kao što su znanje,
of sustainable development. The evolution of
knowledge as a determinative factor of productivity occurred very quickly. Nobel laureate
James Tobin first drew attention to the fact that
in more advanced economies of the 1970s the
contribution of labour and capital to the economic growth was only 12%, while knowledge
contributed over 80% to the productivity. This
tendency was most prevalent in Japan, where
over 95% of the growth originated from knowledge, while only 5% was from the other factors.
Later, the already mentioned social theorists
such as Daniel Bell, Alvin Toffler and Drucker appeared and shaped the concept of knowledge-based economy.
Here is the data that is somewhat providing
evidence on great changes occurring in the
structure of use and contribution of individual
production factors to the labour productivity
and to other factors. In 1950 the production
(industry, agriculture, etc.). of the most developed industrial countries involved 61.6% of
the population in France, 66.3% in Germany,
68.9% in Japan, 50.9% in UK, while the U.S.
employed only 43.7% of workers. In 1970 that
percentage was decreased ranging from 32%
for the United States to 53% in Japan. The end
of the twentieth century accelerated the process
of restructuring of employment due to productivity growth in manufacturing, and increased
role of education and scientific research, the
employment in manufacturing ranges from
21.8% (USA) to 41% (Japan). During this period the percentage of employees in the market
and non-market services was significantly increases. The share of labour in the service sector in 1950 ranged from 31% (Japan) to 56%
(USA), but in 1995 that percentage increased
from 59% (Japan) up to 78 % (U.S.) (Crafts,
2000). Research the key factors of growth of
the most developed countries in the second
half of the twentieth century have shown convincingly that in their structure there has been
a fundamental change, so that the participation
of classic physical factors such as labour and
capital in the value of the factors involved was
reduced, but not because of their scarcity, but
due to the fact that the intangible factors such
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naučna istraživanja, informacije itd. davali
daleko veći doprinos ekonomskom rastu i
razvoju (Dragutinović, Filipović & Cvetanović, 2005, str. 44).
Sigurno je da sve ima svoju cenu koja se
ogleda u problemima prilagođavanja novoj
strukturi i potrebama industrije, usluga itd, pri
čemu veliki broj radnika, posebno onih koji
su zaposleni u klasičnim industrijama, dolazi
u problem česte promene radnih mesta, dodatne obuke ili manje ili više trajne nezaposlenosti. To je uslovljeno, pre svega, uticajem
tehnologije i društva znanja na ekonomski sistem i strukturu.
as knowledge, scientific research, information,
etc. provided a far greater contribution to economic growth and development (Dragutinović,
Filipović & Cvetanović, 2005, p. 44)
It is certain that everything has its price, which
is reflected in the problems of adapting to the
new structure and the needs of industry, services,
etc., where large numbers of workers, especially
those employed in traditional industries, faces
the problem of frequent changes in employment,
additional training or more or less permanent
unemployment. It has been conditioned, primarily by the impact of technology and knowledge
society onto the economic system and structure.
EKSPANZIJA HUMANOG KAPITALA
- OBRAZOVANJE, TEHNOLOGIJA I
ODRŽIVOST
EXPANSION OF HUMAN CAPITAL
- EDUCATION, TECHNOLOGY AND
SUSTAINABILITY
Sistematsko sticanja znanja, školovanje, širenje radne kulture i poštovanja
institucija gotovo uvek su značili napredak koji se ticao onoga što je obuhvaćeno pojmom humanog ili ljudskog kapitala. U ovdašnjoj ekonomsko-teorijskoj
literaturi više pažnje privukla je analiza
inače nešto šire kategorije „društveni
kapital“. Analiza uloge društvenog kapitala dosta uspešno objašnjava razlike
u dostignutom nivou razvoja zajednica
sa sličnim ostalim materijalnim i drugim pretpostavkama (Golubović, 2007).
Međutim, ako je akumulirani humani
kapital pretpostavka stabilnog i dugoročnog ekonomsko-tehnološkog razvoja, a ljudski kapital se upravo izgrađuje
na temelju mirnog i dugoročnog ekonomskog i tehnološkog napretka, onda
ispada da društva koja su ga stekla u
većoj meri, imaju mnogo više šansi za
stabilan i uravnotežen društveni sistem,
pa i za dugoročno održiv ekonomski rast
i razvoj, dakle značajnu refentnu prednost. Kako onda objasniti promenu uloge koju donose novi vetrovi humanog
kapitala, koji nisu čisto ekonomska već
i socijalna i kulturološka kategorija?
The systematic acquisition of knowledge,
education, expansion of work culture and
respect for institutions have almost always
meant progress that was related to what is included in the concept of human capital. In the
local economic-theoretical literature, more attention was drawn by the analysis of a somewhat broader category of “social capital”. The
analysis of the role of social capital is quite
successful in explaining the differences in the
achieved level of development of communities with similar material and other assumptions (Golubović, 2007). However, if the accumulated human capital is the assumption of
a stable and long-term economic and technological development, and the human capital is
built exactly on the basis of a peaceful and
long-term economic and technological progress, it turns out that the societies that have
acquired the above in a greater extent, have a
much better chance for a stable and balanced
social system, as well as for long-term sustainable economic growth and development,
therefore meaning a significant reference advantage. How to explain the change in the role
brought by the new currents of human capital,
which are not a purely economic category, but
also belong to social and cultural categories?
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Reč je upravo o ekonomskom doprinosu
novih znanja i sistema njihove disperzije,
prethodnog obrazovanja, kao i opšteprihvaćenih društvenih vrednosti, kulture, navika,
svesti i običaja ljudi koji se bave određenom
privrednom aktivnošću kao radnici, preduzetnici, državni funkcioneri, menadžeri, administracija… Taj doprinos često se ostvaruje
indirektno, preko javnih ili neformalnih institucija dobrih poslovnih običaja, društvene
kohezije, tolerancije i uslova za poslovanje,
investicije i razvoj.
U okviru prve generacije tzv. endogenih
modela rasta akumulacija humanog kapitala obuhvaćena je kao ključni pokretač
rasta. To je tzv. Bekerijanski model humanog kapitala, koji podrazumeva komparativne prednosti koje homogenizuju agense
sadašnje proizvodnje, tzv. perfektnog konkurentskog tržišta, omogućavajući ljudima
veću dokolicu i tekući dohodak, kao i njihova nastojanja da podignu nivo znanja i
omoguće veći dohodak u budućnosti. Ovo
gledišta vidi ulogu humanog kapitala, pre
svega, kroz individualno ponašanje ljudi u
društvu i direktnu transmisiju znanja kao
pretpostavke statusnog rangiranja, osvajanja pojedinih zanimanja ili umreženih relacija, kao i direktnog socijalnog transfera
znanja (Carillo, 2005). Lukasova teza da
humani kapital obezbeđuje ogroman ekonomski doprinos na bazi učinka pozitivnih
eksternalija je veoma bitan doprinos prenosa razmatranja na jedan uhodani analitički teren. Nobelovac Lukas je 1988.
godine pokazao da humani kapital produkuje obilne iznose pozitivnih eksternalija.
Ideja se tiče direktne socijalne veze između agenasa koji kreiraju znanje kao što su
obrazovanje, sistem porodičnog učenja,
kulturne interakcije. Novi tipovi modela
endogenog rasta bave se analizom procesa
kojima se znanje prenosi preko individua,
ali ipak može da omogući značajan porast
učinka eksternalija.
Znanje je po definiciji namenjeno unapređenju ljudskog faktora proizvodnje, a ulaganje u ljudske resurse ima presudni uticaj
This is about the economic contribution
of new knowledge and systems of their dispersion, prior education, as well as generally accepted social values, culture, habits,
awareness and customs of people who are
dealing with a particular economic activity as
workers, entrepreneurs, government officials,
managers, administration... Such contribution
is often exercised indirectly, through public or
informal institutions of good business practices, social cohesion, tolerance and conditions
for business, investment and development.
In the first generation of so-called endogenous growth model the accumulation of
human capital is included as a key driver of
growth. It is a so called Beckerian Model of
human capital, which includes comparative
advantages which homogenise the agents of
the current production, the so-called perfect
competitive market, allowing people more
leisure and income, as well as their efforts
to educate and gain a higher income in the
future. This view sees the role of human capital, primarily through individual behaviour
of people in society and the direct knowledge transmission as a presumption of “status ranking” of occupations, or networked
relations, as well as direct social knowledge
transfer (Carillo, 2005). Lucas thesis that
human capital provides a huge economic contribution based on the performance
of positive externalities is a very important
contribution to the transfer of analysis onto
a well-established analytical field. Nobel
Laureate Lucas in 1988 demonstrated that
human capital produces copious amounts of
positive externalities. The idea refers to the
direct social relationship between agents that
create knowledge, such as education, family
learning system, cultural interaction. New
types of endogenous growth models deal
with the analysis of the processes by which
knowledge is transmitted over the individual
, but it can still provide a significant increase
in the impact of externalities.
Knowledge by definition is intended to promote
the human factors of production, and investment
in human resources has a crucial impact on the
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na održivost. Politika obrazovanja samo je
deo strategije ulaganja u ljudske resurse.
Prethodna analiza održivog razvoja u sektorskoj primeni pokazala je da njegova suština
nema mnogo smisla ukoliko nije prevashodno okrenuta potrebama čovečanstva. Pa čak
iako se ponekad suočavamo sa činjenicom
da je čovekova ideja da sebi podredi prirodu i Planetu neodrživa i kontraproduktivna,
mora se priznati da ne bi bilo ni održivog
razvoja niti ekološke i druge politike održivosti, da nije ljudi i njihovih akcija, usmerenih ka sopstvenim interesima, ali u skladu sa
prirodnim zakonima, jer je to jedini mogući
pravac izgradnje održivosti.
Sva ulaganja su dobrodošla ali su ona
koja su okrenuta podizanju kvaliteta ljudskih resursa najvažnija. Samo obrazovani, socijalno i ekološki svesni i odgovorni
ljudi mogu graditi bolju budućnost zajednice, u interesu sopstvene i budućih generacija. Međutim, za široko društveno
prihvatanje tih ideja presudne su društvene institucije, kao i znanje, obrazovanje i
kultura ljudi.
sustainability. Education policy is only a part of
the strategy of investing in human resources. The
previous analysis of sustainable development in
the sector application demonstrated that its essence does not make much sense unless it is primarily focused on the needs of humanity. Even
though we are sometimes faced with the fact that
a man’s idea to subdue the nature and the planet
is unsustainable and counterproductive, it must
be recognized that there would be no sustainable
development nor environmental or other sustainability policies, if there were no people and their
actions, directed towards their own interests but in
accordance with the laws of nature, because it is
the only possible course of building sustainability.
All the investments are welcome, but the ones
that are facing towards the increase of the quality
of human resources are the most important. Only
educated, socially and environmentally aware and
responsible people can build a better future for the
community, in the interest of their own and future
generations. However, for the purpose of broad
social acceptance of these ideas a crucial role is
played by the social institutions, as well as by
knowledge, education and culture of the people.
Ljudski kapital i ekonomija znanja
Human capital and knowledge economy
Pojedinci stiču znanja prvenstveno radi
sebe, ali se pri tome izgrađuju ljudske
sposobnosti uopšte, tako što ljudi žive
duže i zdravije, stiču znanja i kreativnost,
imaju bolji standard, učestvuju u socijalnim, političkim i kulturnim dešavanjima.
Kakop je to lepo skicirao UNDP u Izveštaju o humanom razvoju 2001. (shema
1) i pokazao da ljudska kreativna znanja
doprinose tehnološkom progresu koji
podstiče produktivnost a time i ekonomski rast. Ekonomski rast omogućava višu
zaposlenost, čime se obezbeđuju resursi
za obrazovanje, zaštitu zdravlja i komunikacije. Međutim, tehnološke promene po sebi znače i napredak medicinske
zaštite, poljoprivrede, energetike i proizvodnje uopšte, što snažno podržava proces izgradnje ljudskih sposobnosti, odnosno humanog kapitala
Individuals acquire knowledge primarily
for themselves, but at the same time they
form human abilities in general by enabling
people to live longer and healthier, to gain
knowledge and creativity, to have better living standards, to participate in social, political and cultural events. As it was nicely
outlined by the UNDP Human Development
Report in 2001 (scheme 1) showing that human creative skills contribute to technological progress which encourages productivity and thus encouraging economic growth.
Economic growth enables higher employment, which provide resources for education, health care and communication. However, technological changes by itself imply
the progress of medical care, agriculture,
energy and manufacturing in general, which
strongly supports the process of building human capabilities and human capital.
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Shema 1. Veza između tehnološkog
progresa i humanog razvoja (UNDP, 2001)
Scheme 1. Links between technology and
human development (UNDP, 2001)
Ključna poruka koja proističe iz savremene teorije društvenog razvoja glasi da
postoje bitne direktne i indirektne veze
između izgradnje ljudskih kapaciteta,
odnosno humanog kapitala i dinamike tehnoloških promena, zasnovanih na
ekonomskom rastu, zaposlenosti i povećanju dohotka, i standrada života ljudi,
sa druge strane.
The key message emerging from contemporary theory of human development is that there are significant direct
and indirect links between building human capacity, i.e. human capital and the
pace of technological change, based on
economic growth, employment and income growth, and the people’s standard
of living.
Održivost - rast i/ili razvoj
Sustainability - growth and/or development
Rast podrazumeva više nečega nego
prethodno, a razvoj poboljšanje kvaliteta
nečega. Na primer, više škola, knjiga i računara mogu da znače bolje obrazovanje,
ali jednostavni rast kao povećanje broja
materijalnih i drugih pretpostavki mogu
da prouzrokuju i nastavak lošeg sistema
The growth implies more of something than
before, and the development implies the improvement of quality of something. For example, more schools, books, and computers may
imply better education, but a simple growth,
such as an increase in the number of financial
and other presumptions can cause the contin37
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prethodnog obrazovanja. Ili, sa druge strane posmatrano, više fabrika i radnih mesta ne moraju da znače i kvalitetniji život.
Razvoj podrazumeva unapređenje sistema
proizvodnje i načina života.
Mada postoje izvesni nesporazumi o
tome da li svaki rast (ukoliko je održiv)
podrazumeva i razvoj, u udžbeničkoj
i drugoj literaturi koja se ovde navodi
jasno je napravljena predmetna distinkcija (Dragutinović, Filipović & Cvetanović, 2005). Takođe je demonstrirana
bitna empirijska veza između obima
kreiranog i primenjenog znanja sa jedne
strane i privrednog i tehnološkog razvoja sa druge.
Uloga zemlje, rada i kapitala, kao teorijski tradicionalnih faktora proizvodnje
nije nestala, ali kao da postaje sekundarna.
Ovi faktori se mogu obezbediti relativno
lako ukoliko za to postoje preduzetnička
volja ideja i specijalizovano znanje. Jedan
od ključnih razvojnih aduta manje razvijenih zemalja (faktički čitav takozvani treći
svet) je međusobno takmičenje da privuku strane investicije na njihovu teritoriju
i da budu što privlačnije za poslovanje u
svakom smislu. To se pokušava na osnovu obezbeđivanja mnoštva inicijativa (poreski rajevi, slobodna trgovina, besplatno
zemljište, niske cene električne energije,
zone slobodnog izvoza, privlačenje multinacionalnih kompanija, desindikalizacija i
obezbeđivanje jeftinog rada i lakši pristup
ostalim regionalnim i svetskom svetskim
tržištu) (Hanson, 2008).
Međutim, na duže staze gledano, pokazuje se da je obrazovanje direktno povezano sa ekonomskim razvojem. Naime,
podaci govore da je u prvoj deceniji XXI
veka svih deset zemalja sa najvišim procentom visoko - obrazovanog stanovništva spadalo u red nacija sa veoma visokim dohotkom per capita (od 26 do 45
hiljada dolara, a u proseku 35000 USA
dolara, grafikon 2).
38
uation of poor system of prior education. Or ,
on the other hand, more factories and jobs do
not necessarily mean a better quality of life.
Development presumes the improvement of
the production system and the way of life.
Although there are some disagreements
as to whether any increase (if sustainable)
includes the development, the textbook and
other literature referred to herein is clearly separated based on the subject (Dragutinović, Filipović & Cvetanović 2005). Likewise, a significant empirical relationship
was demonstrated between the scope of the
created and applied knowledge on one hand
and economic and technological development on the other.
The role of land, labour and capital, as
theoretical traditional factors of production
has not disappeared, but it seems that it is
becoming secondary. These factors can be
provided relatively easily if there are entrepreneurial willingness, ideas and specialized knowledge. One of the key advantages
of development of less developed countries
(in fact the entire so-called “third world”)
is a mutual competition to attract foreign
investment onto their territory and to be
more attractive for business in every sense.
Such efforts are made on the basis of providing a number of initiatives (tax havens,
free trade, free land, low electricity prices,
free zone exports, attracting multinational
companies, abolition of trade unions and
providing cheap labour and easy access to
other regional markets as well as the global
world market) (Hanson, 2008)
However, in the longer term perspective,
it has been shown that the education is
directly linked to economic development
The data show that in the first decade of
the 21st century, all of the ten countries
with the highest percentage of highly - educated population fell within the nations
with very high income per capita (from
26 to 45 thousand dollars, and on average
$35000, graph 2).
P. Đukić: KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE...
% populacije sa tercijalnim obrazovanjem
% of population with tertiary education
BDP per capita (Index(SAD=100))
BDP per capita (Index(USA=100))
Grafikon 1. Procenat visokoobrazovanih
u korelaciji sa ostvarenim BDP per capita
za deset najobrazovanijih nacija sveta
(USA=100) (Sauter & Hess, 2012)
Graph 1. Percentage of highly educated in the
correlation with the achieved GDP per capita
of the tem most educated nations of the world
(USA=100) (Sauter & Hess, 2012)
Istraživači razlika u sticanju i distribuciji
znanja na globalnom nivou jasno su ukazali na činjenicu da sistematsko obrazovanje i
širenje znanja uzrokuje bitne razlike u nivou
produktivnosti rada između zemalja sličnih
prethodnih razvojnih pretpostavki. Te razlike
se postižu zahvaljujući ekonomiji znanja, čak
i u uslovima oskudice prirodnih resursa. Ilustracija sa slike 4. pokazuje ogromne razlike u
dohotku po času rada koje su bile zabeležene
u svetu početkom XXI veka. Tako je za čas
rada u to vreme bilo moguće zaraditi oko 2,5
USA dolara, u Južnoj Koreji nešto više od 9
dolara, u Nemačkoj čak preko 24 dolara, ali u
Kini svega 0,6 dolara.
I pored razlika u kupovnoj moći zbog
različitog nivoa ekonomske snage i
strukture cena, razlike su bile i ostale
ogromne. U studiji koja prati i analizira ove razlike u višedecenijskom intervalu pominje se da su tokom šezdesetih
i sedamdesetih godina XX veka razlike
u zaradama između Meksika i Brazila,
sa jedne strane, i Južne Koreje, sa druge
bile gotovo zanemarljive.
Researchers of the differences in the acquisition
and distribution of knowledge on a global scale
clearly pointed to the fact that the systematic education and distribution of knowledge causes significant differences in the level of labour productivity
among the countries of similar previous development assumptions. These differences are obtained
thanks to the knowledge economy, even in the conditions of scarcity of natural resources. The illustration in Figure 4 shows the enormous differences
in income per working hour, which were recorded
in the world at the beginning of XXI century. For
an hour of work at that time it was possible to earn
about $2.5 in the USA, over $9 in South Korea,
over $24 in Germany, but only $0.6 in China.
Despite the differences in purchasing power due to the different levels of economic
strength and price structure, the differences
were and are still enormous. In a study that
tracks and analyzes the differences in the decades-long interval it is mentioned that during the sixties and seventies of the twentieth
century, the differences in earnings between
Mexico and Brazil on one hand, and South
Korea on the other, were almost negligible.
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25
20
15
10
Francuska
France
Južna Koreja
South Korea
Singapur
Singapore
Hong Kong
Meksiko
Mexico
Brazil
Brasil
Kina
China
24.3
Japan
Zarada po satu u $
$ Earning per hour
EU15
0
SAD
USA
5
21.37
19.67
19.02
17.27
9.07
7.26
5.85
2.61
2.58
0.61
Grafikon 2. Razlike u zaradama kao produkt
transfera i ekspanzije znanja: Zarade po času
rada (Hanson, 2008)
Graph 2. Differences in earnings as the product
of transfer and distribution of knowledge:
Earnings per hour of work (Hanson, 2008)
Nova ekonomija i faktor znanja kao uslov
priključivanja EU
The new economy and the knowledge
factor as a condition of joining the EU
Širenje znanja i informacija, ulaganja u
istraživanja i nauku osnovne su pretpostavke
za brz razvoj zasnovan na novim tehnološkim rešenjima. Uprkos povremenim oštrim
padovima tehnoloških potencijala, osnova
ekonomije zasnovane na znanju još uvek su
informacije i informaciono-komunikacione
tehnologije. Iz toga nipošto ne treba zaključiti da se čitav tehnološki napredak i koncept
ekonomije zasnovane na znanju bazira na
kreiranju i širenju informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija. Nove tehnologije obuhvataju mnoge tehnološke novine tzv. treće
naučno-tehnološke revolucije: elektroniku,
informatiku, automatizaciju, robotiku itd.
Međutim, tehnički progres današnjeg sveta
dovodi do promena na koje se do samo pre
nekoliko decenija nije moglo računati: od
gotovo trenutnog globalnog prenosa i obrade informacija, do novih materijala koji su
zasnovani na neuro-nano-bio tehnologijama
ili genomici, kao specifični hibridi koji doprinose energetskoj efikasnosti, ljudskom
zdravlju, kvalitetnijem i dužem životu ljudi.
Tako se dolazi do onih dinamičkih posledica
Distribution of knowledge and information,
investment in research and science are the basic
prerequisites for the rapid development based
on new technology solutions. Despite the occasional sharp drops of technological potential,
the basis of the knowledge based economy still
lies in the information and information and
communication technologies (ICT). From this
it certainly should not be inferred that the whole
concept of technological progress and knowledge-based economy is based on the creation
and distribution of ICT. New technologies include many technological innovations of the
so called third scientific-technological revolution: electronics, IT, automation, robotics and
so on. However, the technological progress of
today’s world leads to changes that only a few
decades ago were inconceivable: from almost
immediate global transmission and processing of information, to new materials based on
neuro-nano-bio technologies and genomics, as
well as specific hybrids that contribute to energy efficiency, human health, better quality
and longer life of the people, which eventually leads us to those dynamic consequences of
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tehnoloških promena i inovacija na kojima je
insistirao čuveni austrijsko-američki ekonomista Šumpeter, kao na „kreativnoj destrukciji“ a kasnije i Draker (uticaj inovacija) kao
na najvažnijim faktorima oslobađanja preduzetničke energije i rasta produktivnosti rada,
odnosno podizanja ekonomske efikasnosti i
povećanja nacionalnog bogatstva.
Sa političke tačke gledišta, sve te promene uz karakteristike znanja kao „javnog dobra“ podižu izazove socijalne i
ekonomske politike, posebno radi odgovarajuće razvojne strategije i politike zemalja u tranziciji i njihovog pristupanja
Evropskoj uniji (Piech, 2008, str. 1). Već
je rečeno da se sama EU, Lisabonskim samitom, opredelila za izgradnju ekonomije
zasnovane na znanju koja donosi nova i
kvalitetna radna mesta, kao i ekonomsku
efikasnost. Ujedinjena Evropa želi više
da ulaže u znanje, informacije i tehnološki razvoj, kao i takvo obrazovanje novih
generacija u kome će rad i kapital postati produktivniji zahvaljujući disperziji
znanja i novih tehnologija. Upravljanje
razvojem kako za Evropsku uniju tako i
za svet postalo je imperativ trasiranja prihvatljive budućnosti za nove generacije
ne samo u smislu održivosti ekonomskog
sistema, rasta i razvoja već, pre svega,
kvaliteta života, odnosno sociokulturnog
i ekološkog stanja i načina života. Kako
nacionalne tako i regionalne strategije
održivog razvoja postale su deo novog
planskog pristupa budućnosti, naročito
nakon Konferencije u Johanezburgu 2002.
Sve zemlje jugoistočne Evrope pristupile
su izradi sopstvenih nacionalnih strategija
održivog razvoja. Međutim, njihov budući razvojni put skopčan je sa mnoštvom
sektorskih problema, naročito onih koje je
potencirala ekonomska kriza: od smanjenja siromaštva, zapošljavanja, efikasnosti
javne uprave, do stanja životne sredine,
korupcije, neodržive energetike, vodosnabdevanja... Pred zemljama kao što su Srbija, Crna Gora, BiH, Makedonija, Albanija, stoje i posebni izazovi u kandidaturi
technological change and innovation which the
famous Austrian- American economist Schumpeter insisted on, as the “creative destruction”,
later followed by Drucker (impact of innovation) as the most important factor of releasing
entrepreneurial energy and labour productivity
growth, i.e. raising economic efficiency and increase of national wealth.
From a political point of view, all of these
changes to the characteristics of knowledge as
a “public good” raise the challenges of social
and economic policies, particularly for the appropriate development strategies and policies
of the countries in transition and their accession to the European Union (Piech, 2008, p. 1).
It has been said that, by the Lisbon Summit, the
EU itself decided to build a knowledge-based
economy that brings new and high-quality jobs
as well as the economic efficiency. The European Union wants to invest more in knowledge,
information and technological developments,
as well as in educating new generations with
whom labour and capital shall become more
productive due to the dispersion of knowledge
and new technologies. Managing the development both for the European Union and for
the world has become an imperative of tracing
acceptable future for the new generation, not
only in terms of the sustainability of the economic system, growth and development, but,
above all, the quality of life and socio-cultural and environmental conditions and lifestyle.
Both national and regional sustainable development strategies have become part of the new
planned approach to the future, especially after
the Conference in Johannesburg in 2002.
All the countries of South-East Europe (SEE) have
started developing their own national strategies
for sustainable development. However, their
future development path is linked with numerous
sector issues, particularly those emphasized by the
economic crisis: from the reduction of poverty,
employment, efficiency of public administration,
to the condition of the environment, corruption,
unsustainable energy, water supply... The countries
such as Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Macedonia,
Albania, face specific challenges with regards to
the candidacy and fulfilling the formal and actual
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P. Đukić: NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU: U SVETLU KONCEPTA ...
i ispunajvanju formalnih i stvarnih uslova
za članstvo u EU. Ogroman deo tih pretpostavki tiče se zaštite životne sredine i
funkcionisanja institucija – suštinski usaglašenog i održivog razvoja društva.
Međutim, prethodno su nagomilani brojni
problemi i neodrživi tokovi kako u oblasti
makroekonomije (budžetski i spoljnotrgovinski deficit, inflacija, javni dug, finansijska
nedisciplina…) tako i u sferi mikroekonomije
i socijalnog sistema i životne sredine... Naime, nabujali su korupcija, poreska evazija,
siromaštvo, a sve uz porast nezaposlenosti i
siromaštva. Biće potrebno mnogo napora da
se uz pomoć ekonomije zasnovane na znanju
dostignu potrebni standardi.
requirements for the membership in the EU. A
huge portion of these assumptions concerns the
protection of the environment and the functioning
of institutions - essentially harmonized and
sustainable development of the society.
However, numerous issues and unsustainable
trends had been previously accumulated
both in the area of macroeconomics (budget
and trade deficit, inflation, public debt,
financial indiscipline...) and in the area of
microeconomics, social systems and the
environment... Namely, the corruption, tax
evasion and poverty flourished, alongside with
the increase in unemployment and poverty.
It will take a lot of effort to reach required
standards using knowledge-based economy.
DA LI ĆE U SVETU PREVLADATI
PAMETNA EKONOMIJA?
WILL THE SMART ECONOMY PREVAIL
IN THE WORLD?
Primer akcije za klimu
Example of Climate Action
Jedan test potencijalno pozitivnog spoja
ekonomije zasnovane na znanju i održivog
razvoja na delu je gotovo dve decenije. „Akcija za klimu“ na globalnom nivou otpočela
je u drugoj polvini 1997. godine donošenjem
Kjoto protokola. Ključna intencija ovog globalnnog sporazuma bila je smanjivanje nivoa
emisije gasova staklene bašte. Prema nalazima Globalnog panela za klimu, najveća opasnost pretila je usled gomilanja i sve veće
koncentracije ugljendioksida u atmosferi.
Antropogeni faktor odgovoran je, smatra se,
u najvećoj meri za taj opasni trend.
Kjoto protokol nije prošao sjajno u svetu
tokom kakve-takve primene tokom poslednje decenije XX veka i prve XXI veka. Njegova primena je trebalo da bude zamenjena
novim aktom 2012. godine. Pokušavalo
se već na Baliju 2007. Nažalost, svetski
lideri su se dogovorili samo to da se dalje
dogovaraju. „Grupa 8“ na sastanku u julu
2008. pokušala je za svoj račun da radi na
smanjenju emisije GHG. Po mišljenju Entoni Gidensa, akcija je poslužila više-manje
kao pričaonica (Gidens, 2010). Lideri ove
A test of a potentially positive link of knowledge-based economy and sustainable development is in action for almost two decades. “Climate
Action” on a global scale began in the second half
of 1997 by adopting the Kyoto Protocol. The key
intention of this global agreement was to reduce
the level of greenhouse gas emissions. According
to the findings of the Global Panel on climate, the
greatest threat was due to the accumulation and
constantly increasing concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere. It is believed that the
anthropogenic factor is mainly held most responsible for such dangerous trend.
The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol was
not a complete success in terms of its more or less
successful application during the last decade of the
twentieth century and during the first decade of the
twenty-first century. Its application was meant to be
replaced by a new act by 2012. Such attempts were
made in Bali in 2007. Unfortunately, the world leaders agreed only to continue to negotiate. At the meeting held in 2008, “Group 8” attempted to perform the
reduction of GHG emissions for their own account.
Based on the opinion of Anthony Giddens, the action
served more or less as a chat room (Giddens, 2010).
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grupe najavili su smanjenje emisije ugljendioksida, kao i drugih gasova staklene bašte
čak za 50% do 2050.
Skup u Kopenhagenu (decembra 2009) doneo je dogovor o povećanju finansiranja borbe protiv zagađenja na 30 milijardi dolara za
sledeće tri godine, kao i cilj od 100 milijardi
dolara pomoći nerazvijenim zemljama za borbu protiv uzroka i posledica globalnog zagrevanja do 2020. Međutim, izbio je spor između
SAD i pojedinih zemalja OECD (dakle najrazvijenijih) i zemalja u razvoju oko načina
finansiranja borbe protiv globalnih klimatskih
promena. Ciljevi nisu konkretizovani na obaveze pojedinih zemalja. Razočarenje je bilo
veliko, s obzirom na to da se očekivao čvršći politički dogovor, pa bio on i nesavršen”
(www.nacional. 2009).
Krajem 2010. godine skoro 200 zemalja
okupljenih na konferenciji UN o klimi u Kankunu (Meksiko) usvojile su dokument koji
predviđa niz mehanizama za borbu protiv
klimatskih promena, uključujući i osnovanje
Zelenog fonda za pomoć zemljama u razvoju.
Mada je komentarisano kako dogovor iz Kankuna “otvara novu eru u međunarodnoj saradnji u oblasti klimatskih promena”, dokument
je usvojen uprkos protivljenju Bolivije, pa je
ostalo upitno da li je stvarno “pravilo za usvajanje konsenzus” i da se radi o “nesrećnom
presedanu”...
The leaders of this group have announced a reduction
in emissions of carbon dioxide as well as other greenhouse gases by as much as 50% by 2050.
The meeting in Copenhagen (in December
2009) brought a deal to increase the funding to
fight the pollution to $30 billion for the next three
years, and set a target of $100 billion to aid underdeveloped countries to combat the causes and
consequences of global warming by 2020. However, a dispute arose between the United States
and certain OECD countries (i.e. the most developed countries) with regards to the methods of
financing the fight against global climate change.
The objectives have been accepted, but no specific obligations of specific countries have been defined. The disappointment was great, considering
that a firm political agreement was expected, even
if it had been imperfect” (www.nacional. 2009)
At the end of 2010, nearly 200 countries gathered at the UN climate conference in Cancun
(Mexico) adopted a document that provides a
variety of mechanisms to fight climate change,
including the establishment of the Green Fund to
help developing countries. Although it was commented that the arrangement of Cancun “opens a
new era in international cooperation in the field
of climate change”, the document was adopted
despite opposition from Bolivia, therefore leaving the question of whether it actually represents
“ a consensus as a rule for the adoption” and that
it was “an unfortunate precedent”...
Energetika kao ključni deo testa
Energy as a key part of the test
Danas je najveća odgovornost za to u sektoru energetike. Svima je u interesu da što je
pre moguće i u što većoj meri pređu na obnovljivu i što čistiju energiju, kao i da unaprede energetsku efikasnost. Održiva energetika
na svetskom nivou verovatno uzrokuje jednu
od najgrandioznijih globalnih pozitivnih eksternalija, upravo kao i globalni ekološki i klimatski sporauzumi (Goodsein, 2003, str. 54).
To je sasvim ispravno stanovište do određenog nivoa.
U uslovima krize, pravila slobodne razmene
znanja i obostranog interesa pri korišćenju i
kreiranju novih zelenih tehnologija i ekono-
Today, the greatest responsibility lies within the energy sector. It is everyone’s mutual
interest to convert to renewable and clean energy as soon as possible and as much as possible, as well as to improve energy efficiency.
Sustainable Energy at the global level is likely one of the most grandiose causes of global
positive externalities, just like the global environmental and climate agreements (Goodsein, 2003, p. 54). It is a completely correct
position to a certain level.
In times of crisis, the rules of the free exchange
of knowledge and mutual interest in the use and
creation of new green technologies as well as
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mije znanja se relativizuju. Tako se sve više
razlikuju zemlje proizvođači „zelenih“ energetskih tehnologija u odnosu na korisnike tih
tehnologija. Ogromna sredstva uložena su u
znanje i tehnike proizvodnje vetrogeneratora ili sunčanih panela, od Nemačke do Kine.
Konkurencija je veoma živa na svetskom tržištu. Evropska unija u daleko većoj meri
obavezuje svoje članice da povećaju udeo obnovljive energije, odnosno da smanje štetne
energetske emisije i povećavaju energetsku
efikasnost nego što je to slučaj u SAD, Kini,
Indiji, ili, recimo, Rusiji, koja ključni prihod
od izvoza bazira na prodaji nafte i gasa, kao
glavnih komercijalnih energenata današnjice.
Bilo bi veoma nerazumno očekivati od Rusije ili Kine da naglo menjaju sopstvene razvojne strategije u pogledu korišćenja energenata,
pa makar i na osnovu globalne akcije za klimu.
Ovdašnja strateška pomeranja od pametnih ka
više materijalizovanim i energeski zavisnim
ekonomskim aktivnostima ima koren u krizi.
Zemlje u razvoju, kao i zemlje u tranziciji, postupaju drugačije sa svojim resursnim potencijalima u kriznom vremenu u odnosu na ona
prethodna vremena. Još nema saglasnosti oko
klimatskih i energetskih ciljeva i standarda.
Konkretizacija pojedinačnih obavaza u novom dokumentu za klimu treba da se realizuje
do kraja 2015. godine. U tom „dokumentu“
koji bi zamenio Kjoto sprazum, konkretizacija globalnih ciljeva u vezi sa smanjivanjem
emisije gasova staklene bašte, biće više-manje formalizovana. Samo je pitanje kako će
se ponašati pojedini tvrdi pregovaračai poput
SAD, Kine, Rusuje, tim pre što je današnje
opasno zaoštravanje odnosa Rusije i zapadnih
zemalja, veliki rizik da se išta kvalitetno na
tom planu postigne.
Sa jedne strane stoje besparica (produžavanje krize), a sa druge energetska nestabilnost
kao i opasna i sve više nepredvidiva kolebanja
cena energenata na međunarodnom tržištu, kao
i posebni intreresi pojedinih zemalja da ne napuštaju lako koncept konvencionalne energeije
– sve su to uzroci usporavanja u razvoju ekonomije zasnovane na znanju, kao i globalnog
sprovođenja koncepta održivog razvoja.
44
the knowledge economy are relativized. Thus,
the countries - manufacturers of “green” energy
technologies increasingly differ from the users
of these technologies. Huge funds were invested in knowhow and techniques of manufacture
of wind turbines or solar panels, from Germany
to China. The competition is very much alive in
the world market. The European Union obliges
its members to increase the share of renewable
energy and to reduce harmful energy emissions
and increase energy efficiency, to a far greater
extent than it is the case in the U.S., China, India or Russia, whose key income is based on the
export sale of oil and gas, as major commercial
energy sourced of today.
It would be unreasonable to expect from
Russia or China to rapidly adjust their development strategies in terms of the use of energy
sources, even on the basis of Global Climate
Action. The local strategic shift from smart to
more materialized and energy dependent economic activities is rooted in a crisis. Developing
countries as well as the countries in transition,
act differently with their resource potential in
times of crisis compared to the previous prior
to the crisis. There is still no consensus on the
climate and energy goals and standards.
Concretization of individual obligations as a
new document for the climate should be implemented by the end of 2015. Such “document”
that would replace the Kyoto agreement shall
more or less formalize the concretization of
global goals related to reducing greenhouse
gas emissions. The only question is the behaviour of certain hard negotiators such as the
U.S., China and Russia, concerning that the
current strained relations between Russia and
the Western countries represent a high risk that
any quality agreement may emerge in this area.
On one side there is shortage of money (prolongation of crisis), and the other - energy instability as
well as dangerous and more unpredictable energy
price fluctuations in the international market, as well
as special interests of some countries not to easily
abandon the concept of conventional energy - these
are all reasons for the slowdown in development of
knowledge-based economy, as well as in the global
implementation of sustainable development.
P. Đukić: KNOWLEDGE - BASED NEW ECONOMY AND SOCIETY: WITH REGARDS TO THE...
Šta činiti: opstanak ili
održivi razvoj
What to do: survival or sustainable
development
Oko 1000 milijardi dolara godišnje u svetu
ulaže se samo u energetiku. Od toga u klasičnu
energetiku fosilanih goriva oko 600 milijardi,
a u obnovljivu energetiku i ekološkle ciljeve
enegetike svega 313 milijardi. Prema predlozima Svetskog saveta za energiju, stvari bi
trebalo da teku obrnuto, tako da se do 2050,
svake godine u „zelenu „ energiju i energetsku efikasnost ulaže po 1000 milijardi dolara,
ili čak 35000 milijardi dolara ukupno, što po
današnjim vrednostima iznosi oko polovine
aktuelnog godišnjeg BDP sveta (Đukić, 2013).
Energetska efikasnost predstavlja jednu od
najnoviljih izazova za čitav današnji svet koji
ne može bez tehnološkog napretka. Tržišna
privreda i globalizacija su direktno povezane.
To znači i da je ulaganje u energiju ukupno
danas onoliko koliko bi trebalo da iznosi samo
ulaganje u obnovljivu energiju i ekologizaciju
energetike. Te dve stvari se ni u kom slučaju
ne isključuju. Tako, na primer, najnovije termoelektrane na ugalj podrazumevaju i mogućnosti novih tehnologija sagorevanja uglja
u prahu, odnosno korišćenje tzv. pulverizovanog uglja2 a tom prilikom se podiže efikasnost
iskorišćenja i smanjuje štetna emisija. Drugi
način je „zarobljevanje“ emitovanog ugljendioksida i njegovo skladištenje u zemlju koje
se već u svetu vrši. Ima još mnoštvo načina
kojima bi pametna ekonomija, prvenstveno
podelom tehnoloških rešenja i razmenom
znanja u svetu, mogla da doprinese održivosti globalne energetike i smanjenju rizika
velikih geofizičkih promena.
Klimatski paket promena i kontra-mera u
svetu povezan je samo naizgled najviše sa energetikom, životnom sredinom i resursima.
Naime, posredno one pogađaju mnoge druge
vitalne aktivnosti kao što su: poljoprivreda,
About $1000 billion annually is invested in
the energy alone. From that number, about $600
billion is invested in the classical energy if fossil
fuel and only about $313 billion in the renewable
energy and environmental goals of energy sector.
According to the proposals of the World Energy
Council, the situation should flow the other way
around, so that by 2050, every year about $1000
billion or even $35000 billion in total should be
invested in “green” energy and energy efficiency,
which by the current value is about half of the
current annual world GDP (Đukić, 2013).
Energy efficiency is one of newest challenges for the entire world which cannot do without
technological progress. The market economy
and globalization are directly related.
This means that investment in the energy of
today is as much as the investment in renewable energy and ecologisation of energy should
be. These two subjects by no means exclude
each other. So, for example, the latest coalfired plants include the possibilities of new
powder coal combustion technologies, or the
use of the so-called pulverized coal2 which increases the efficiency of utilization and reduces
harmful emissions. Another way is “capturing”
emitted carbon dioxide and storing it underground, which is already being done in the
world. There are plenty of methods that would
enable the smart economy, particularly by distributing technological solutions and sharing
knowledge worldwide could contribute to the
sustainability of the global energy and reduce
the risk of large geophysical changes.
Package of Climate Changes and counter-measures worldwide is only seemingly
linked primarily to energy, environment and
resources. Namely, they indirectly affect many
other vital activities such as agriculture, trans-
2 Reč je o dobijanju metanola od uglja tzv. pulverizacijom koja podrazumeva dobijanje sintetičkog gasa
(syngas) i likefijaciju pod pritiskom pare, tako da se
sjedinjavanjem tog produkta sa vodonikom dobija methanol, koji se dalje može mešati sa naftom, ili koristiti
za dobijanje električne energije.
2 It is about getting the methanol from coal so. The
pulverization of the preparation, which involves a synthetic gas (syngas) and likefijaciju pressure steam, so
as to amalgamate the product obtained with hydrogen
methanol, which can be further mixed with the oil, or
used to generate electricity.
45
P. Đukić: NOVA EKONOMIJA I DRUŠTVO ZASNOVANO NA ZNANJU: U SVETLU KONCEPTA ...
saobraćaj, šumarstvo, građevinarstvo, industrija... Kao karakteristika i potencijal moderne
civilizacije, globalizacija može da doprinese
rešavanju problema i uklanjanju prepreka za
saradnju i razumevanje, odnosno trgovini, inovacijama i znanju sa jedne strane, ali, isto tako,
i da deluje zbunjujuće i stvara nove probleme,
podele i rizike, naročito ljudima koji od nje
strahuju i gube. Izazovi globalizacije ostaju
i dalje kao „dva lica boga Janusa“, šansa ili
pretnja (Đukić, 2011, str. 253). Sve zavisi od
toga da li će svet uspeti da položi ključni ispit
budućnosti – da upravlja potrebama populacije
od 9 milijardi ljudi, već sredinom XXI veka.
Današnja globalna scena, naročito pod
pritiskom ukrajinske krize, nosi velike neizvesnosti, usporava pozitivne impulse koje
nude nova tehnološka rešenja i saradnja
zemalja, ne samo na polju održive energetike,
ili akcije za klimu. Mnoga pitanja i probleme
valja rešavati zajedno i uz više saradnje i razumavanja.
Pametna ekonomija morala bi da nalazi tehnološki i ekonomski upotrebljiva rešenja za
probleme vodosnabdevanja, životnog prostora, vremenskih i prirodnih katastrofa, ishrane
i gladi, novih zaraznih bolesti i ko zna kojih
sve iskušenja koje donosi budućnost klimatskih i drugih promena na zemljiu. Održivi razvoj kao koncept usaglašavanja i preklapanja
različitih, a pre svega ekonomskih, socijalnih
i ekoloških ciljeva, nije istrošen i neupotrebljiv model. U cilju njegove konkretizacije
teško i mukotrpno se traže i pronalaze u suštini, kompromisna, rešenja. Nijedna kriza ne
može biti razlog da se za takvim rešenjima
prekine traganje kako na nacionalnom tako i
na regionalnoom i globalnom planu. Sadašnja
generacija ljudi na Planeti nema ni politički
ni moralni mandat da se kocka sa sudbinom
budućih generacija.
port, forestry, construction, industry... As a feature and potential of modern civilization, globalization can contribute to solving problems
and removing barriers to cooperation and understanding, i.e. trade, innovation and knowledge, but also to act confusing and create new
problems, divisions and risks, particularly to
people who are afraid of it and eventually lose.
Globalization challenges remain as “two-faced
god Janus,” a chance or a threat (Đukić, 2011,
p. 253) . It all depends on whether the world
will be able to pass the key test of the future - to
manage the requirements of 9 billion people,
by the middle of the 21st century.
Today’s global stage, especially under the pressure of the Ukrainian crisis, carries a lot of uncertainties, slowing down the positive impulse offered
by new technological solutions and cooperation
between countries, not only in the field of sustainable energy or Climate Action. Many issues and
problems should be solved together with increased
level of cooperation and understanding.
Smart economy would have to provide
technologically and economically useful
solutions for the problems of water supply,
living space, weather and natural disasters,
nutrition and hunger, new infectious diseases
and who knows what other temptations of the
future regarding climate and other changes
to the country. Sustainable development as a
concept of conciliation and overlay of different, particularly economic, social and environmental objectives, it is not an outdated and
useless model. For the purpose of its concretisation, searching and finding, mainly compromise solutions is quite difficult. No crisis can
be the reason to stop searching for such solutions both on a regional and on a global level.
The current generation of people on the Planet has neither a political nor a moral mandate
to gamble with the fate of future generations.
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49
50
ODRŽIVI RAZVOJ - SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
Igor Ferjan
Fondacija za obnovu i razvoj, Generalni sekretar za BiH
The Reconstruction and Development Fund, General secretary for BIH
Izvorno naučni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402006F, UDK 316.42:141.7(497.6)
Original scientific paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Rezultatima istraživanja predstavljenim u
ovom članku ostvarivana je primarna misija istraživanja: afirmirati holističko mjerenje životnog nivoa i ljudskog razvoja. U
članku su elaborirane najvažnije značajke
o humanom razvoju, indeksu humanog razvoja i načinu mjerenja humanog razvoja.
Posebna pažnja je posvećena strukturi i računanju indeksa humanog razvoja (HDI).
Elaborirano je više tematskih jedinica o
indeksu humanog razvoja: pojam, obilježja, struktura, računanje i tumačenje HDI.
Predstavljen je reprezentativni primjer računanja indeksa humanog razvoja Bosne i
Hercegovine za 2012. godinu. Navedene su
mjere koje će doprinijeti holističkom mjerenju životnog nivoa putem indeksa humanog
razvoja.
The research results presented in this paper
demonstrate the accomplishment of the primary
mission of this research: to recognise the holistic
measurement of quality of life and human development. The paper elaborates the most important
features of human development, Human Development Index and the method of measuring human
development. Particular attention has been paid
to the structure and calculation of the Human Development Index (HDI). Several thematic units on
the Human Development Index have been assessed/
addressed: definition, properties, structure, calculation and interpretation of the HDI. A representative
example of calculating the Human Development Index of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2012 has been
presented. The measures that will contribute to the
holistic measurement of quality of life via the Human
Development Index have been specified hereinafter.
Ključne riječi: mjerenje životnog nivoa,
humani razvoj, indeks humanog razvoja, HDI.
Key words: measurement of quality of life, human
development, Human Development Index, HDI.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Rečenicom „Ljudi su stvarno bogatstvo
nacija“ 1990. godine započeo je novi pristup
razmišljanju o razvoju i uspostavljen je indeks
humanog razvoja koji od tada doživljava konstantnu evoluciju u pokušaju da mjeri životni
nivo na način koji će biti nešto više od samog
zbrajanja brojeva. Više od dvadeset godina
proučavaju se problemi i fenomeni humanog
razvoja i njegovog mjerenja, ali, unatoč svim
istraživanjima, literatura o toj problematici
je nedostatna i neprimjerena stvarnim korisnicima. Prema tome, zadatak ovog članka je
In 1990, the phrase “People are the real wealth
of a nation” marked a new approach to development analysis thus establishing the Human Development Index, which has been constantly evolving
ever since, attempting to measure the quality of life
in a way that would be more than simple adding
up the numbers. For more than twenty years, the
problems and phenomena of human development
and its measurement have been studied. However,
despite all the research, the literature on this issue
is inadequate and inappropriate for the actual users.
Therefore, the aim of this paper is to assess current
51
I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
da se istraže aktualni problemi i fenomeni o
holističkom mjerenju nivoa života. Sukladno
problematici postavljena je temeljna hipoteza: Indeks humanog razvoja predstavlja temelj holističkog mjerenja životnog nivoa.
Rezultati istraživanja u ovom članku imaju
misiju da doprinesu mjerenju životnog nivoa,
odnosno, da daju doprinos holističkom mjerenju životnog nivoa putem indeksa humanog
razvoja.
issues and phenomena on the holistic measurement of quality of life. In accordance with the task,
a fundamental hypothesis has been established:
The Human Development Index is the foundation
for the holistic measurement of quality of life.
The research results in this paper should
contribute to the measurement of quality of
life, i.e., to contribute to the holistic measurement of quality of life using the Human
Development Index.
DEFINISANJE HUMANOG RAZVOJA
DEFINING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Humani razvoj predstavlja proces proširenja izbora ljudi, a najvažniji od njih su: živjeti
dug i zdrav život, biti obrazovan i uživati pristojan životni standard. Dodatni izbori uključuju političke slobode, garantovana ljudska
prava i samopoštovanje. Ponekad se čini da
je prihod dovoljan pokazatelj za sve ljudske
izbore, jer pristup dohotku dozvoljava pristup
opcijama, što je samo djelomično tačno iz
više razloga.
1. Prihod je sredstvo, a ne cilj. Može se
koristiti za nabavku lijekova ili droge.
Dobar standard društva ovisi od koristi tog prihoda, a ne od same visine
prihoda.
2. Praksa pokazuje slučajeve visokog nivoa
ljudskog razvoja sa skromnim nivoom
prihoda, kao i nizak nivo ljudskog razvoja
sa relativno visokim nivoima dohotka.
3. Trenutni prihod države može ponuditi
smjernice za svoj budući rast. Ako je država već uložila u svoje ljude, potencijal
prihoda može biti puno veći nego što sadašnji nivo dohotka pokazuje, i obratno.
4. Uvećavanje ljudskih problema u mnogim
industrijski bogatim zemljama pokazuje
da visok nivo dohotka, sam po sebi, nije
garancija za ljudski napredak.
Jednostavno, istina je da ne postoji automatska veza između prihoda, rasta i ljudskog napretka, a glavna preokupacija analize razvoja
bi trebalo da bude stvaranje i pojačavanje te
veze. Ovdje pojam ljudskog razvoja označava i proces proširenja izbora ljudi i nivoa
Human development is a process of increasing the volume of people’s choices, the
most important ones being: to live a long and
healthy life, to be educated and to enjoy a
decent standard of living. Additional choices
include: political freedom, guaranteed human
rights and self-esteem. Sometimes it may occur that the income is the sufficient indicator,
for it allows access to the other options, which
is only partially true for several reasons.
1. Income is an instrument, not an objective.
It can be used for the purchase of medicines or drugs. A good quality standard
depends on the benefits provided by that
income, not on the income level itself.
2. In practice, there are cases of high level of
human development with modest income
as well as low level of human development with relatively high income.
3. Current state income may offer guidance
for its future growth. If the state has already invested in its people, the income
potential can be much higher than shown
by the current income level, and vice versa.
4. Increase of human problems in many
wealthy industrialized countries shows
that a high level of income, by itself, is no
guarantee of human progress.
The truth is that there is no automatic correlation
between income, growth and human progress,
a major preoccupation of development analysis
should be to create and enhance such correlation.
In this case, the concept of human development
marks the process of expanding people’s choices
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I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
postignute dobrobiti i pomaže da se napravi
jasna razliku između dvije strane ljudskog
razvoja. Jedan od njih je formiranje ljudskih
sposobnosti, kao što su poboljšanje zdravlja
ili znanja, a drugi je da ljudi koriste svoje stečene sposobnosti za rad ili odmor. Ovaj način
gledanja na razvoj se razlikuje od konvencionalnog pristupa ekonomskog rasta, raspodjele
ljudskog kapitala, razvoja ljudskih potencijala, ljudskog blagostanja ili osnovnih ljudskih
potreba, pa je potrebno jasno razgraničiti te
razlike kako bi se izbjegle bilo kakve zabune.
1. Rast BDP-a se ovdje tretira kao nužan, ali
ne i dovoljan za ljudski razvoj. U nekim
društvima humani napredak nedostaje,
unatoč brzom rastu BDP-a ili visokom nivou dohotka po stanovniku, osim ako su
učinjeni neki dodatni koraci.
2. Teorije formacije ljudskog kapitala i razvoj ljudskih potencijala posmatraju ljudska bića prvenstveno kao sredstvo, pa se o
ljudima brinu samo kao o instrumentima
za unapređivanje robne proizvodnje, jer
ljudi predstavljaju izvršitelje proizvodnje.
No, ljudi su nešto više od kapitalnih dobara proizvodnje. Oni, također, predstavljaju krajnje korisnike ovog procesa. Dakle,
glavni koncept formiranja ljudskog kapitala obuhvaća samo jednu stranu ljudskog
razvoja, a ne njegovu cjelinu.
3. Ljudsko blagostanje posmatra ljudska
bića više kao korisnike razvojnog procesa, a ne samo kao sudionike u njemu i
naglašava distributivne politike, a ne proizvodne strukture.
4. Pristup osnovnim životnim potrebama
se obično koncentriše na paket dobara i
usluga koje određene skupine stanovništva trebaju: hrana, sklonište, odjeća,
zdravstvena zaštita i voda. Centar pažnje
je usmjeren na pružanje tih dobara i usluga, a ne na pitanje ljudskog izbora.
Ljudski razvoj, s druge strane, povezuje
proizvodnja i distribuciju dobara, kao i proširenje i korištenje ljudskih sposobnosti, a
fokus predstavlja izbor o tome šta bi ljudi
trebalo da imaju i šta bi trebalo raditi da bi
and the level of achieved well-being and helps to
form a clear distinction between the two sides of
human development. One of them is the formation of human abilities, such as the improvement
of health or education, and the other being the use
of the acquired abilities for work or leisure. Such
perspective of development differs from the conventional approach to economic growth, distribution of people resources, human resource development, human well-being or basic human needs,
therefore it is required to clearly distinguish the
differences in order to avoid any confusion.
1. In this case, GDP growth is treated as a
necessary aspect, but not a sufficient aspect
for human development. Some societies
lack human progress, despite rapid GDP
growth and high per capita income, unless
some additional steps have been made.
2. Theories of the formation of people resources and human resource development
perceive human beings primarily as an instrument, therefore addressing people as
instruments for the improvement of production of goods, for the people are the production executants. However, people are somewhat more than simple capital goods. They
also represent the end-users of the aforementioned process. Thus, the main concept
of people resources covers only one aspect
of human development, not the whole.
3. Human well-being perceives human beings more as pure users of the development process, not as the participants and it
emphasizes distributive politics, not production structures.
4. Access to basic human needs is usually concentrated onto the set of goods and services
which a specific groups of the population
requires: food, shelter, clothing, health care
and water. Centre of attention is focused on
providing such goods and services, not on
the issue of the people’s choice.
On the other hand, human development is
connected by the production and distribution of
goods, as well as the expansion and utilisation of
human abilities, while the focus representing the
selection of what people should have, and what
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
osigurali svoje izdržavanje. Humani razvoj je
više koncentrisan na ljudski razvoj kao dinamički proces, a ne samo kao proces za zadovoljenje osnovnih potreba. To se podjednako
odnosi kako na manje razvijene tako i na visoko razvijene zemlje. Dakle, humani razvoj
obuhvaća mnogo ranijih pristupa ljudskom
razvoju. Ova široka definicija omogućuje
bolji pogled na složenost ljudskog života, na
mnoge probleme ljudi u različitim kulturama
svijeta, ekonomske, društvene i političke razlike u životima ljudi širom svijeta. Također,
ova definicija postavlja nekoliko pitanja: Da
li je ljudski razvoj sam po sebi podesan za
mjerenje i kvantifikaciju? Da li je operativan?
Može li se planirati i pratiti?
should be done to ensure their own sustenance.
Human development is more focused on human
development as a dynamic process, not only as a
process for satisfying the basic needs. It applies
equally to both less developed and highly developed countries. Thus, human development includes numerous previous approaches to human
development. This broad definition allows a better perspective of the complexity of human life,
of the numerous problems of people in different
cultures worldwide, of economic, social and political differences in the lives of people around
the world. Likewise, this definition raises several
questions: Is the human development suitable for
measurement and quantification by itself? Is it
operational? Can it be planned and monitored?
KONCEPT MJERENJA LJUDSKOG
RAZVOJA
MEASUREMENT CONCEPT OF HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT
Kako bi se dobila što sveobuhvatnija slika, u svakom sistemu za mjerenje i praćenje
ljudskog razvoja, potrebno je uključiti mnoge varijable. No, trenutni nedostatak relevantnih usporedivih statističkih podataka to
ne dozvoljava, a niti je takva sveobuhvatnost
u potpunosti poželjna. Previše pokazatelja
može proizvesti zbunjujuću sliku – može da
zbuni kreatore politike. Sve navedeno sugeriše da mjerenje humanog razvoja treba za
sada usredotočiti na tri bitna elementa ljudskog života: dugovječnost, znanje i pristojan
životni standard.
Prvi element predstavlja pokazatelj dugovječnosti očekivanog životnog vijeka pri rođenju. Važnost životnog vijeka leži u ustaljenom
mišljenju da je dug život sam po sebi vrijedan,
kao i činjenici da su različite indirektne koristi (npr. primjerena prehrana i dobro zdravlje)
usko povezane sa dužim životnim vijekom.
Ovo čini životni vijek važnim pokazateljem
humanog razvoja, a, posebno, s obzirom na sadašnje nedostatke sveobuhvatne informacije o
zdravlju ljudi i nutritivnom statusu.
Drugi ključni element predstavlja znanje.
Podaci o pismenosti su samo odraz sirovog
pristupa obrazovanju, posebno o kvalitetnom
obrazovanju koje je tako potrebno za produk-
In order to obtain a more comprehensive
view, it is necessary to include numerous variables in any system for measuring and monitoring human development. However, the
current lack of relevant comparable statistical
data does not allow that, nor is such comprehensiveness entirely preferable. Too many
indicators may result in a confusing result confusing the policy makers. All of the above
suggests that the measurement of human development should be focused on the three essential elements of human life: life expectancy, education and a decent living standard.
The first element is the life expectancy indicator. The importance of life expectancy
lies in the established opinion that a long life
is valuable by itself, and in the fact that the
various indirect benefits (e.g., adequate nutrition and good health) are closely associated
with longer life expectancy. This makes the
lifespan an important indicator of human development and, particulary with regards to the
current lack of comprehensive information on
human health and nutritional status.
The second key element is the education. Data
with regards to literacy are simply a reflection of
a raw approach to education, especially a good
quality education that is necessary for a produc-
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I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
tivan život u modernom društvu. No, pismenost predstavlja prvi korak u učenju i građenju znanja jedne osobe, tako da su podaci o
pismenosti neophodni za mjerenje ljudskog
razvoja, a važnosti bi se trebalo pridati višim
nivoima obrazovanja. No, za osnovni humani
razvoj, pismenost zaslužuje naglasak.
Treći ključni element ljudskog razvoja predstavlja pristojan život koji je možda najteži za
jednostavno mjerenje. To zahtijeva podatke
o pristupu zemljištu, kreditima, prihodima i
drugim resursima, a kako su podaci o mnogim
od tih varijabli oskudni, za sada je potrebno
na najbolji način iskoristiti pokazatelj o prihodima. Najdostupniji indikator predstavlja
dohodak po glavi stanovnika koji ima široku
nacionalnu pokrivenost. Prisutnost nerazmjenjivih dobara i usluga te kursne anomalije,
carine i porezi ne čine podatke o dohotku po
glavi stanovnika vrlo korisnim za međunarodne upotrebe. Međutim, takvi podaci mogu
biti poboljšani pomoću kupovne moći prilagođene realnom GDP-u po glavi stanovnika,
koje pružaju bolje procjene relativne kupovne
moći, kako bi se dobio standard za pristojan
život. Daljnje razmatranje pokazuje da bi indikator trebao prikazati pretvaranje prihoda
u ljudske sposobnosti. Drugim riječima, ljudi ne trebaju pretjerana finansijska sredstava
kako bi osigurali pristojan život. Ovaj aspekt
je uzet u obzir koristeći logaritam realnog
BDP-a po stanovniku za pokazatelj dohotka.
Sve tri mjere ljudskog razvoja pate od zajedničkog nedostatka: one predstavljaju prosjeke koji prikrivaju široke razlike ukupne
populacije. Različite društvene skupine imaju
različita životna očekivanja. Često su raširene
razlike u pismenosti kod muškaraca i žena, također, distribucija prihoda je neravnomjerna.
Dakle, stvara se snažna osnova za korekciju
distribucije. Takve korekcije su posebno važne za prihode, koji mogu narasti do ogromnih
visina. Nejednakost u odnosu na životni vijek
i pismenost je mnogo više ograničena: osoba može biti pismena samo jednom kao što i
ljudski život ima svoj kraj. Teško je utvrditi
pouzdane i usporedive procjene nejednakosti.
Vjerovatno najčešće korištena mjera nejedna-
tive life in the modern society. However, literacy
is the first step in learning and education process of a person. Therefore, the data on literacy
is necessary for measuring human development,
with the higher importance given to higher levels of education. For basic human development,
literacy deserves to be specifically noted.
The third key element of human development is a decent living standard, which is perhaps the most difficult to be measured, for it
requires data on road access, loans, income
and other resources, and since the data on
many of those variables are scarce, currently,
the best method is to use the income indicator in the best manner possible. The most accessible indicator is per capita income, which
has broad national coverage. The presence
of non-traded goods and services, exchange
abnormalities, duties and taxes do not make
the data on income per capita very useful for
international use. However, such data can be
improved by purchasing power adjusted to
real GDP per capita, providing better estimates of the relative purchasing power to get
a decent living standard as a result. Further
examination shows that the indicator demonstrate the conversion of income into human
abilities. In other words people do not require
excessive financial resources to ensure a decent life. This aspect is taken into account
with the use of real GDP per capita logarithm
as the income indicator.
All the three measures of human development
suffer from a common deficiency: they represent
averages which conceal significant differences
of the total population. Different social groups
have different life experiences. Often, the literacy among men and women differs greatly.
Likewise, the income distribution is also uneven. Therefore, a strong foundation for the readjustment of the distribution is established. Such
readjustments are especially important for the
income, which can grow enormously. Inequality in relation to life expectancy and literacy is
much more limited: a person can be literate only
once, in the same way the human life has its end.
It is difficult to establish reliable and comparable estimates of inequality. Probably the most
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
kosti dohotka, Ginijev koeficijent, trenutno je
dostupan za manje od četvrtine od 130 zemalja, i mnoge od tih procjena su daleko od pouzdanih. Podaci za očekivano trajanje života
i pismenost po grupama prihoda se ne prikupljaju, čak i one dostupne za ruralno-urbane
i muško ženske razlike su još uvijek previše
male za međunarodna poređenja.
Konceptualni i metodološki problemi kvantificiranja i mjerenja ljudskog razvoja postaju još složeniji za političke slobode, osobne sigurnosti, međuljudske odnose i fizički
okoliš. Ali, čak i ako ti aspekti uveliko bježe
mjerenju, analiza ljudskog razvoja ih ne smije ignorisati. Ispravno tumačenje podataka o
mjerljivim varijablama također ovisi o više
kvalitativnoj dimenziji ljudskog života. Poseban napor se mora uložiti u razvoj jednostavnih kvantitativnih mjera za hvatanje mnogih
aspekata ljudske slobode.
Godine 1990. UNDP je objavio prvi Izvještaj o humanom razvoju. “Ljudi su stvarno bogatstvo nacija.” Tim riječima je 1990. godine
Izvještaj o humanom razvoju (HDR) započeo
novi pristup razmišljanju o razvoju (UNDP,
2010, str. 1). Cilj razvoja da treba stvoriti poticajno okruženje za ljude, da uživaju dug,
zdrav i kreativan život, očit je i danas. No, to
nije uvijek bio slučaj. Osnovni cilj HDR od
1990. do 2010. godine je da se naglasi da je
razvoj prije svega temeljen na ljudima. 2010.
taj koncept je obnovljen i ponovno utvrđen.
Jedan od pozitivnih aspekata tradicionalnog
Izvještaja o humanom razvoju jeste da je opis
ljudskog razvoja živ. Mijenjao se sa vremenom, mjestom i uslovima, a i dalje je održavao temeljne vrijednosti. Ni na koji način nije
sugerisao da će živi pristup ljudskom razvoju
biti zamijenjen statičkim oblikom. Međutim,
predloženo je da srž koncepcije ljudskog razvoja redovno uključuje proces slobode uz
mogućnost proširenja, te da će načela kao
što su smanjenje siromaštva, trajnost, održivost i podrška za ljudska prava biti sastavni
dio ljudskog razvoja. Pravo bogatstvo naroda
predstavlja put ka humanom razvoju.
Godine 2010. su predstavljena tri nova indeksa kojim su obuhvaćeni aspekti nejed56
commonly used measure of income inequality,
the Gini coefficient, is currently available for
less than a quarter of the 130 countries, with
many of those estimates being far from reliable.
Data on life expectancy and literacy per revenue
groups is not collected. Even the data available
for rural- urban and male-female differences are
still too scarce for international comparisons.
Conceptual and methodological issues of quantifying and measuring human development become even more complex for political freedom,
personal safety, interpersonal relationships and
physical environment. However, even if such aspects are difficult to measure, the human development analysis must not ignore them. The correct
interpretation of the data on measurable variables
also depends on a more qualitative dimension of
human life. A special effort must be made towards
the development of simple quantitative measures
to include the many aspects of human freedom.
In 1990, UNDP published the first Human Development Report “People are the real wealth of a
nation.” The Human Development Report (HDR)
used those words to launch a new approach to development thinking (UNDP, 2010, p. 1) in 1990.
The goal of development - to create a supportive
environment for people to enjoy a long, healthy and
creative life - is evident even today. However, this
was not always the case. The main goal of HDR
from 1990 to 2010 was to stress that the development is based primarily on the people. In 2010 the
concept was rebuilt and re-established. One of the
positive aspects of the traditional Human Development Report is that the description of human development remains alive. It has changed through
time, places and circumstances, while maintain its
core values nevertheless. In no way it was suggested that the active approach to human development
would be replaced by a static form. However, it was
suggested that the core of the human development
concept always involves a freedom process with the
possibility of extension, and that principles such as
poverty reduction, longevity, sustainability and support for human rights shall be an integral part of human development. The real wealth of a nation is the
path to human development.
In 2010 three new indices were introduced,
including aspects of inequality, gender equal-
I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
nakosti, jednakost spolova i siromaštvo koji
odražavaju napredak u metodama i pristupanju kvalitetnijim podacima (UNDP, 2010, str.
7). Ove nove mjere su dale mnogo novih rezultata i uvida, koji mogu pomoći u vođenju
političkih rasprava o razvoju i dizajnu. Samim
postavljanjem ljudi u centar razvoja stvoren je
napredak, a omogućeno im je da budu aktivni
sudionici u promjenama i osiguranju da trenutna dostignuća ne budu postignuta na štetu
budućih generacija.
ity and poverty, that reflect the advance in
methods and accessing better quality data
(UNDP, 2010, p. 7). These new measures
have provided numerous new results and insights that may help guide politics debates
on development and design. Simply placing
people at the center of development marked
a certain progress, allowing them to be active
participants in the changes being made and
ensuring that current achievements are not
achieved at the expense of future generations.
INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA – TEMELJ
HOLISTIČKOG MJERENJA ŽIVOTNOG
NIVOA
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX – BASIS
OF HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF
QUALITY OF LIFE
Nije lako pronaći način za holističko mjerenje životnog nivoa. Ustanovljivanje indeksa humanog razvoja od strane UNDP-a predstavlja jedan pokušaj da se izmjeri životni
nivo, a sama složenost mjerenja traži da to
mjerenje bude nešto više od samog zbrajanja
pojedinih dijelova (holistički). Najambiciozniji pokušaj analize komparativnog statusa
socioekonomskog razvoja i u zemljama u razvoju i u razvijenim zemljama sistematski i
sveobuhvatno poduzima Razvojni program
Ujedinjenih naroda (UNDP) u svojoj godišnjoj seriji izvještaja o humanom razvoju.
Centralno mjesto u ovim izvještajima, koji
su objavljeni 1990. jeste izrada i poboljšavanje Indeksa humanog razvoja (HDI) (Todaro
& Smith, 2006, str. 55). Indeks humanog razvoja pokušava rangirati sve zemlje svijeta
na skali od 0 (najniži humani razvoj) do 1
(najviši humani razvoj) na osnovu tri cilja
ili krajnja rezultata razvoja: dug život, koji
se mjeri očekivanom životnom dobi pri rođenju, znanje, koje se mjeri ponderiranim
prosjekom pismenosti odraslih (dvije trećine) i prosječnim godinama školovanja (jedna trećina), te životni standard, koji se mjeri
u odnosu prema realnom per capita prihodu
prilagođenom različitim paritetom kupovne
moći valute svake zemlje, koji odražavaju
troškove života i pretpostavku smanjenja
marginalnog korištenja prihoda (Todaro &
Smith, 2006, str. 56).
It is not easy to find a method for holistic
measurement of quality of life. Establishment
of a Human Development Index by the UNDP,
represents an attempt to measure the quality
of life, while the complexity of measurement
itself requires that such measurement is more
than a mere aggregation of individual parts
(holistic). The most ambitious attempt to analyse the comparative status of socio-economic
development in developing countries and developed countries is systematically and comprehensively undertaken by United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) in its annual series of reports on human development.
Central point in these reports published in 1990,
was the development and improvement of the
Human Development Index (HDI) (Todaro &
Smith, 2006, p. 55). The Human Development
Index tends to rank all the countries on a scale
from 0 (lowest human development) to 1 (highest human development) on the basis of three
objectives or end results of development: long
life, as measured by life expectancy at birth,
education, as measured by a weighted average
of adult literacy (two-thirds) and mean years
of schooling (one-third), and the living standard, measured in relation to the real per capita
income adjusted to different Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) of each country, reflecting the
cost of living and the assumption of reduction
of marginal use of income (Todaro & Smith,
2006, p. 56).
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
Indeks humanog razvoja (HDI) predstavlja pokazatelj koji rangira zemlje prema
nivou „ljudskog razvoja“, svrstavajući ih
u kategorije razvijene, zemlje u razvoju i
nerazvijene zemlje. Indeks je sastavljen od
podataka koji mjere tri dimenzije ljudskog
razvoja: dug i zdrav život (očekivana životna dob stanovništva), nivo obrazovanja
(pismenost odraslih osoba), te postojanje
normalnog životnog standarda (GDP-a per
capita u PPP). Indeks nastoji prikazati ljudskih napredak vezom dohotka i blagostanja (Udruženje ekonomista ACADEMIC,
2014).
Od svih komponenti HDI-a, dohodak i pismenost se mogu mijenjati uslijed promjena
u kratkoročnim politikama. Zbog toga se HDI
mjeri tokom vremena kako bi se uočile promjene nastale vremenom. HDI nije običan indeks jer on pruža bolji uvid u osnovni aspekt
ljudskih života, tako što pruža potpuniju sliku
razvoja zemlje u odnosu na druge indikatore
poput GDP-a per capita.
The Human Development Index (HDI) represents an indicator that ranks countries by their
level of “human development”, classifying them
into the following categories of “developed”, “developing” and “underdeveloped” countries. The
index is composed of data that measures three
dimensions of human development: a long and
healthy life (life expectancy of the population),
educational level (adult literacy), and the existence
of a normal standard of living (GDP per capita in
PPP). The Index aims to demonstrate the progress
of the human development via the correlation between the income and well-being (Association of
Economists ACADEMIC, 2014) .
Of all the HDI components, income and literacy
are subject to change due to changes in short-term
policies. Therefore, the HDI is measured over time
in order to detect changes occurring over time.
HDI is not an ordinary index since it provides a
better insight into the fundamental aspect of human life by providing a more complete perspective of a country’s development in comparison to
other indicators such as GDP per capita.
Indeks humanog razvoja (HDI)
[Human Development Index (HDI)]
Dug i zdrav život
[Long and healthy life]
Obrazovanje
[Education]
Normalan životni
standard
[Normal living standard]
životnog vijeka
[Life expectancy index]
Indeks pismenosti
odraslih
[Adult literacy index]
GDP index
[Life expectancy at birth]
Prosjek pismenosti
odraslih
[Adult literacy average]
Omjer upisa
[Enlisting ratio]
GDP per capita
(PPP US$)
Shema 1. Struktura HDI (UNDP, 2013)
Scheme 1. HDI formation (UNDP, 2013)
U odnosu na početke izračunavanja, HDI je
doživio nekoliko promjena. Najvažnija promjena je što je indeks pojednostavljen, tako
Compared to the beginning of calculation,
HDI has undergone through several changes.
The most important one being the simplification
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I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
da se danas HDI obračunava na relativno
direktan način. U prošlosti je korištena relativno složena formula kojom se PPP prihod
pretvara u „prilagođeni” prihod (u smislu
prihoda prilagođenog smanjenoj marginalnoj
upotrebi). U Izvještaju o humanom razvoju
2010. godine UNDP je počeo koristiti novi
obračun HDI koji predstavlja sažetu mjeru
ljudskog razvoja. HDI je geometrijska sredina
normaliziranih indeksa za mjerenje postignuća u svakoj dimenziji, a vrši se u dva koraka.
Korak 1. Izrada indeksa dimenzija. Minimalne
i maksimalne vrijednosti su postavljene kako bi
se pokazatelji mogli transformisati u indeks između 0 i 1. Maksimumi su najviše vrijednosti u
posmatranim vremenskim serijama (1980-2012).
Minimalna vrijednost može biti prikladno zamišljena kao vrijednost opstanka. Minimalne vrijednosti su postavljene na 20. godina za očekivano
trajanje života, na 0. godina za obrazovanje i na
100 USD za bruto nacionalni dohodak (BND).
of the index, so that today the HDI is calculated in a relatively straightforward manner. In the
past, a a relatively complex formula was used,
converting PPP income into “adjusted” income
(in terms of income adjusted to reduced marginal use). The Human Development Report from
2010, UNDP began using a new HDI calculation
which represents a summary measure of human
development. HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for measuring the achievements
in any dimension, and is performed in two steps.
Step 1. Creating indicator index. Minimum
and maximum values are set to transform the
indicators to an index between 0 and 1. The
maximum values are the highest values within the observed time periods (1980-2012).
The minimum value may be presented as a
survival value. Minimum values are set at 20
years for life expectancy, at 0 years of education and $100 for gross national income
(GNI).
Tabela 1
Maksimalne vrijednosti HDI 2012 (UNDP, 2013)
Table 1
HDI Maximum values 2012 (UNDP, 2013)
Dimenzija
[Indicator]
Očekivani životni vijek
[Life expectancy]
Godine školovanja
[Mean years of schooling]
Očekivane godine školovanja
[Expected years of schooling]
Kombinovani indeks obrazovanja
[Combined education index]
GDP per capita (PPP $)
Posmatrani maksimum
[Maximum observed]
Minimum
83,6 (Japan, 2012)
20.0
13,3 (SAD, 2010)
0
18,0 (capped at)
0
0,971 (Novi Zeland, 2010)
0
87.478 (Katar, 2012)
100
Nakon što su definisane minimalne i maksimalne vrijednosti, podindeksi se računaju na
sljedeći način:
Index dimenzije=
Once having defined the minimum and
maximum values, the sub-indices are calculated as follows:
Stvarna vrijednost-Minimalna vrijednost
Maksimalna vrijednost-Minimalna vrijednost
Indicator index=
Actual value-Minimum value
Maximum value-Minimum value
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
Korak 2. Zbrajanjem podindeksa za obračun HDI. HDI je geometrijska sredina tri dimenzije indeksa i predstavljena je formulom:
Step 2. Adding sub-indices for HDI calculation.
HDI is the geometric mean of the three items of
the index and is represented by the formula:
HDI = 3 LEI *EI *II
Tabela 2
Bosna i Hercegovina 2012. godina (UNDP, 2013)
Table 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina, year 2012 (UNDP, 2013)
Indikator
[Indicator]
Očekivani životni vijek u godinama
[Lifetime expectancy in years]
Godine školovanja
[Mean years of schooling]
Očekivane godine školovanja
[Expected years of schooling]
GDP per capita (PPP $)
[GDP per capita (PPP $)]
Vrijednost (zaokružena)
[Value (rounded)]
75,8
8,3
13,4
7.713
Indeks očekivanog životnog vijeka:
Life expectancy at birth index:
LEI =
75,8 - 20
= 0,878
83,6 - 20
Indeks godina školovanja:
Mean years of schooling index:
MYSI =
Indeks očekivanog školovanja:
8,3 - 0
= 0,624
13,3 - 0
Expected years of schooling index:
13,4 - 0
EYSI =
= 0,744
18 - 0
Indeks obrazovanja:
Education index:
EI =
0,624 * 0,744 - 0
= 0,702
0,971 - 0
Indeks prihoda:
Income index:
II =
ln(7,713) - ln(100)
= 0,744
ln(87,478) - ln(100)
Indeks humanog razvoja:
Human development index:
HDI= 3 0,878 * 0,702 * 0,735
HDI pokušava rangirati sve zemlje svijeta na skali od 0 (najniži humani razvoj) do 1
(najviši humani razvoj) na osnovu tri cilja ili
krajnja rezultata razvoja: dug život, koji se
60
HDI attempts to rank all countries on a scale
from 0 (lowest level of human development) to
1 (highest level of human development) based
on the three objectives or end results of devel-
I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
mjeri očekivanom životnom dobi pri rođenju,
znanje, koji se mjeri ponderiranim prosjekom
pismenosti odraslih (dvije trećine) i prosječnim godinama školovanja (jedna trećina), te
životni standard, koji se mjeri u odnosu prema realnom prihodu per capita prilagođenom
različitim paritetom kupovne moći valute
svake zemlje, koji odražava troškove života
i pretpostavku smanjenja marginalnog korištenja prihoda. Korištenjem tih triju mjera razvoja i primjenom te formule na podatke 187
zemalja, HDI rangira sve zemlje u tri grupe;
nizak humani razvoj (0,0 do 0,499), srednji
humani razvoj (0,50 do 0.799) i visok humani
razvoj (0,80 do 1,0). Prema izračunatom primjeru Bosna i Hercegovina pripada zemljama
srednjeg humanog razvoja.
opment: long life - measured by life expectancy
at birth, education - measured by the weighted
average of adult literacy (two-thirds) and mean
years of schooling (one-third), and the living
standard, measured in relation to the real per
capita income adjusted to different Purchasing
Power Parity of each country, reflecting the cost
of living and the assumption of reduction of
marginal use of income. By utilising those three
measures and by applying the above formulas to
the data of 187 countries, the HDI ranks all the
countries into three groups; low human development (0.0 to 0.499) , medium human development (0.50 to 0.799) and high human development (0.80 to 1.0). According to the calculated
example, Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs to
the medium human development countries.
INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA KAO
MJERA SPOSOBNOSTI
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX AS A
MEASURE OF ABILITY
Indeks humanog razvoja je indeks koji
prati dostupne mogućnosti pojedinca u
društvu. Mogućnosti pojedinca predstavljaju popis stvari koje osoba može imati ili
mu mogu biti dostupne u životu. U širem
smislu, pojam sposobnosti odnosi se na
mogućnosti osobe da ostvari svoju „slobodu postizanja različitih alternativa između
kojih može birati“ (Luigino, 2008, str. 23).
Mogućnost kao pristup mjerenju razvoja
pokušava pratiti da li se mogućnosti članova društva šire s vremenom.
Da bi se razumio problem mjerenja, važno je razumjeti osnove pristupa sposobnosti:
ideja funkcionisanja. Početna uloga u pristupu je da se funkcionisanje vidi kao sastavni
element života. Funkcionisanje je postignuće
osobe: ono što uspije uraditi ili biti. Sposobnost osobe predstavlja izveden pojam. Ona
odražava različite kombinacije radnji koje on
ili ona može postići (Fukuda-Parr & Kumar,
2004, str. 5).
Da bi se mjerila sposobnost osobe, treba
razmišljati o mogućem načinu života koji ta
osoba može dosegnuti, u svjetlu mogućnosti
koje su otvorene za njega ili nju. Ovdje je
važno iznijeti osnovne činjenice: iako je po-
The Human Development Index is an index
that tracks the available options of an individual in a society. The individual’s options represent a list of items that a person may possess
or may be made available to the individual
during his life. In a broader sense, the term
refers to the ability of a person able to exercise its own “freedom to accomplish various
available alternatives” (Luigino, 2008, p. 23).
The ability, as an approach to development
measurement tries to track whether the society members’ options increase over time.
In order to comprehend the measurement
problem, it is important to understand the basics of ability approach: the idea of functioning. The initial role in the approach is to view
the operation as an integral element of life. The
operation represents a person’s achievement:
that it manages to do or be. The ability of a person is a derived concept. It reflects the different combinations of actions that he or she can
achieve (Fukuda -Parr & Kumar, 2004, p. 5).
To measure the ability of people, one
should consider the possible ways of life
that a person can achieve, with regards to the
options open to him or her. It is important
to present the basic facts: although the set
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
stavljeni budžet multidimenzionalni objekt,
to predstavlja određenu veličinu, u dobro postavljenim tržišnim privredama sa stabilnim
cijenama, indeksiranje se može obaviti na
osnovu stvarnog dohotka osobe. Na osnovu
toga, može se reći da jedan broj (stvarni prihod) može pokazati da li se postavljeni budžet
širi ili smanjuje sa protekom vremena.
Može se vidjeti analogija: HDI namjerava
biti skup mogućnosti koji stoji na raspolaganju pojedincima u zemlji, ono što GDP indeks predstavlja za ukupni državni budžet, tj.
način za praćenje da li se te mogućnosti šire
ili sužavaju sa protekom vremena. Da bi se
to provelo u praksi, potrebno je razmišljati o
funkcijama ljudi koje se žele pratiti u zemlji, i
kako se razmišlja o načinu transformacije tih
funkcija u mogućnosti. Neke funkcije su vrlo
elementarne, kao što je adekvatna prehrana,
biti u dobrom zdravlju i tako dalje, i iz očitih
razloga to se može snažno vrednovati. Druge
mogu biti složenije, ali još uvijek široko vrednovane, kao što je postizanje samopoštovanja, ili dobra društvena integracija (Luigino,
2008, str. 24).
Nikada nije tvrđeno da je HDI sveobuhvatna mjera ljudskog razvoja i dobrobiti,
nego sažeta alternativa ekonomskim mjerama. Sam koncept humanog razvoja je širi
od mjerenja humanog razvoja. Zato mjerenje HDI konstantno evoluira i nikada neće
perfektno da izmjeri humani razvoj. Od dana
kada je objavljen, kritike su se javljale sa
svih strana. Neke kritike tvrde da se koriste
pogrešne varijable i da ne pokazuje humani
razvoj tačno. Sagar i Najam su 1998. godine
tvrdili da HDI predstavlja iskrivljenu sliku
svijeta. Murray (1993) i Srinivasan (1994)
su tvrdili da HDI prikazuje pojednostavljeni prikaz ljudskog razvoja oslanjajući se na
samo nekoliko pokazatelja koji su često proizišli iz podataka loše kvalitete (Kovačević,
2010, str. 2).
Kao odgovor na kritike ove vrste, UNDP
je razvio dodatne komplementarne alate kao
što su indeks siromaštva (HPI), indeks rodne
jednakosti (GDI), indeks rodnog osnaživanja
(GEM). Međutim, iako ovi indeksi nadopu62
budget is a multidimensional object, it represents a certain value, and in well-placed
market economies with stable prices, indexing can be done on the basis of actual income
of a person. On this basis, it can be claimed
that a certain number (real income) may indicate whether the set budget is expanding or
reducing over time.
An analogy is clearly set: HDI intends to
represent a set of options available to individuals in the country; i.e. basically similar
to what GDP index represents for the overall
state budget, a method to track whether those
opportunities expand or reduce over time. To
apply this in practice, it is necessary to consider the functions that people are interested in
within the country and to consider the method
of transforming those functions into options.
Some functions are quite basic, such as adequate nutrition, good health, and so on, and
those can be highly valued, for obvious reasons. Others may be more complex, but still
highly valued, such as achieving self-respect
or obtaining good social integration (Luigino,
2008, p. 24).
It has never been claimed that the HDI is a
comprehensive measure of human development
and well-being, but a concise alternative to economic measures. The very concept of human
development is wider than the measurement of
human development. Therefore, any measurement of HDI is constantly evolving and will
never manage to perfectly measure human development. From the day it was published, various
critics have appeared. Some critics argue that the
wrong variables are being used and that a true
human development is not shown. In 1998, Sagar
and Nayam claimed that the HDI represented a
distorted view of the world. Murray (1993) and
Srinivasan (1994) argued that the HDI shows a
simplified perspective of human development,
relying on simply a few indicators often resulting
from poor quality data (Kovačević, 2010, p. 2).
In response to such criticism, UNDP has
developed additional complementary tools
such as the Human Poverty Index (HPI), the
Gender Development Index (GDI), Gender
Empowerment Measure (GEM). However,
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njuju snagu pojašnjavanja HDI-a, njihovo
korištenje nije previše široko. Dugogodišnja
bujica kritika govori da čisti ekonomski pokazatelji (BDP, BND i sl.) bazirani samo na
ekonomskom rastu nisu dovoljni za ozbiljniju raspravu o ljudskom razvoju, posebno
s obzirom na visoku međusobnu korelaciju
svih unutrašnjih komponenti HDI-a, kao i sa
samim Indeksom humanog razvoja (Kovačević, 2010, str. 2).
Također, tu su i kritike usmjerene na kvalitetu statističkih podataka i metodološke utemeljenosti HDI-a, koji ukazuju na pogreške
kod mjerenja, kao i na predrasude koje su
sastavni dio međunarodnih podataka. Narušavanje karaktera HDI-a temeljenog na dokazima se povećava oslanjanjem na matematičku
interpolaciju, umetanje i modeliranje, kao i
proizvoljnost načina objedinjavanja i ponderiranja strategije.
Ostali kritičari preferiraju multidimenzionalni pristup, stepenasti kompozitni indeks,
kao način da se izbjegne proizvoljan izbor
funkcionalnih oblika i proizvoljno ponderirane šeme, ali tako da se nepotrebno ne izgube
podaci zbog prikupljanja preko pokazatelja.
Velika skupina kritika odnosi se na činjenicu
da trenutni HDI predstavlja prosjek i na taj
način skriva široke razlike u raspodjeli društvenog razvoja u ukupnoj populaciji. Oni sugeriraju nejednakost prilagođavanja HDI-a.
U konačnici, kritike su usmjerene na
dva opća područja, prvo, kako definisati ljudski razvoj i kako posmatrati i mjeriti njegove komponente i odrednice, a drugi, kako iz
različitih pokazatelja dobiti jedan prihvatljiv
indeks ljudskog razvoja kojim bi se mjerila
njegova poboljšanja. HDI procjene podliježu
pitanjima i ograničenjima koja se odnose na
izbor pokazatelja i ulaznih podataka koji se
koriste u izračunavanju. Navodimo neke od
tih procjena.
1. Procjene životnog vijeka dobivene su
iz dva različita izvora. Podaci za 1990.
i 1995. su izvučeni iz nezavisne studije
koja je bila usredotočena na raspodjelu
smrtnosti po dobi i spolu zemlje. Podaci za period 1995-2000, s druge strane,
although these indices complement the clarification of HDI, their use is not too common.
A long-lasting torrent of criticism suggests
that pure economic indicators (GDP, GNP,
etc.) based only on economic growth are not
sufficient for a serious debate on human development, particularly with regards to the
high mutual correlation of all the internal
components of the HDI, as with the Human
Development Index (Kovačević , 2010, p. 2)
Likewise, there are criticisms directed at the
quality of statistical data and methodological
foundation of the HDI, which indicate errors
in measurement, as well as the prejudices that
are an integral part of international data. Distortion of the HDI character - based on evidence is increased by relying on mathematical interpolation, insertion and modelling, as
well as on arbitrary methods of consolidating
and weighting of a strategy.
Other critics preferred a multi-dimensional approach, a Gradual Composite Index, as
a method to avoid the arbitrary selection of
functional forms and arbitrarily weighted
schemes, but in such manner not to unnecessarily lose data due to data collection via the
indicators. Numerous criticisms refer to the
fact that the current HDI is an average and
thus conceals vast differences in the distribution of social development in the general population. They highlight an unequal adjustment
of the HDI.
Finally, the critics are focused onto two general areas, first, to define human development
and to observe and measure the components
and determinants, and second, to obtain an
acceptable Human Development Index from
various indicators in order to quantify its improvement. HDI estimates are subject to the
issues and limitations related to the choice of
indicators and input data used in the calculation. Here are some of those estimates.
1. 1ifetime expectancy estimates were obtained from two different sources. Data
for 1990 and 1995 were drawn from an
independent study focused on the distribution of mortality rate by age and sex
in a country. On the other hand, data for
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predstavljaju projekcije na temelju modela Ujedinjenih nacija o umjerenom povećanju očekivanog trajanja života. Dakle,
promjena u očekivanom trajanju života
može se dijelom pripisati povećanju korištenih statističkih podataka.
2. U metodologiji za globalnu procjenu HDI
(UNDP 1998) obrazovanje se mjeri u
kombinaciji odrasli i osnovna pismenost
(dvije trećine) i kombinaciji prvog, drugog i trećeg nivoa upisa (jedna trećina).
Za izloženi HDI korištena je funkcionalna pismenost umjesto osnovne pismenosti. Osnovna pismenost se smatra sirovim
pokazateljem znanja s obzirom na minimalne zahtjeve. Ovaj pokazatelj zahtijeva
samo mogućnost čitanja i pisanja jednostavnih poruka u bilo kojem jeziku ili dijalektu. Funkcionalna pismenost, s druge
strane, zahtijeva znatno viši nivo pismenosti, što uključuje ne samo vještinu čitanja i pisanja nego i vještinu računanja.
3. Korištenje realnog dohotka po stanovniku
dobivenog iz domaćinstva predstavlja još
jedno odstupanje od postojeće međunarodne konvencije. U budućnosti će se koristiti
realni bruto domaći proizvod po stanovniku u paritetu sa kupovnom moći s prilagođavanjem na temelju prihoda svjetskog
prosjeka (UNDP 1998). Međutim, izvori o
prihodu u nekim zemljama ne pružaju regionalne podatke (National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines, 2014).
Generalni problem sa rangiranjem predstavlja to da je procjena udaljenosti između
pozicija važnija od broja koji razdvaja dvije
zemlje. Najbogatija nacija ima dohodak po
glavi stanovnika dvostruko veći od dvadesete najbogatije nacije, što predstavlja veliku
razliku. Ako se razmatra očekivano trajanje
života kod rođenja, Japan je na broju tri s
očekivanim životnim vijekom kod rođenja od
82. godine, Sjedinjene Američke Države su
na broju 44., uz očekivani životni vijek kod
rođenja od 78. godina. Četiri godine razlike u
očekivanom trajanju života ne predstavlja trivijalan podatak, ali ako se to usporedi, razlike
u dohotku po stanovniku između treće najbo64
the period 1995-2000 represents the projections based on the model of the United
Nations Convention on the moderate increase in life expectancy. Thus, the change
in life expectancy can be partly attributed
to the increase of the used statistical data.
2. The methodology for the global assessment of the HDI (UNDP 1998), education
is measured by combining adult literacy
(two-thirds) and the combination of the
first, second and third-level registrations
(one-third). This HDI methodology utilises functional literacy instead of basic literacy. Basic literacy is considered a crude
education indicator with regards to minimum requirements. This indicator requires
only the ability to read and write a simple
message in any language or dialect. Functional literacy, on the other hand, requires
a much higher level of literacy, which includes not only reading and writing skills
but also calculation skills.
3. Using real per capita income derived from
a household is another deviation from the
existing international convention. In the
future, real gross domestic product per
capita will be used with paired with purchasing power with the adjustment based
on the average world income (UNDP
1998). However, the sources of income do
not provide regional data in certain countries (National Statistical Coordination
Board Philippines, 2014).
The general problem with the ranking is the
fact that the estimate of the range between
the positions is more important than the number of countries dividing the two countries in
question. The richest nation has a per capita
income twice that of the twentieth richest nation, which is a big difference. If the life expectancy at birth is considered, Japan is at the
third position with a life expectancy at birth
of 82 years, the United States are at the 44th
position, with life expectancy at birth of 78
years. Four years difference in life expectancy does not represent a trivial detail, but if the
comparison is applied to other counties, the
difference in per capita income between the
I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
gatije zemlje, Švicarske i 44, Palau, švicarski
dohodak po glavi stanovnika je gotovo osam
puta veći od dohotka po glavi stanovnika u
Palau.
Dakle, ozbiljna prepreka korištenja HDI
u nacionalnom odlučivanju proizlazi iz proizvoljnog ponderiranja, tj. poteškoće da se
objasni opseg razlika u rangu mjerenja razlika
u posmatranim vrijednostima na različite varijable i razlike u načinu na koji nacija može
da mijenja različite aspekte života (Yahoo!7
Answers, 2014).
third richest country - Switzerland and 44th Palau, Swiss per capita income is nearly eight
times higher than the per capita income in Palau.
Thus, a significant obstacle to the use of the
HDI in the national decision-making is derived
from arbitrary weighting, i.e. from difficulties
to explain the scope of differences in the range
of measuring differences in the observed values to the different variables and differences
in the way the nation can change the various
aspects of life (Yahoo!7 Answers, 2014).
AFIRMACIJA MJERENJA LJUDSKOG
RAZVOJA
RECOGNITION OF HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT MEASUREMENT
Jedna od osnovnih tvrdnji u Izvještaju o humanom razvoju 2010. je da mjerenje ljudskog
razvoja treba proširiti i ići izvan osnovne dimenzije. Izvještaj o humanom razvoju 2010.
je predstavio velike inovacije u mjerenju putem HDI-a, dizajniran posebno za rješavanje
ključnih dimenzija nejednakosti i siromaštva,
a uvijek potvrđuje da nejednakost u ljudskom
razvoju zaslužuje ozbiljno razmatranje, te da
prosjeci mogu biti pogrešni (Klugman, Rodríguez & Choi, 2011, str. 33).
Prilagođen HDI uveden u Izvještaju o humanom razvoju 2010. je jedan odraz napretka tokom posljednja dva desetljeća, tako da
su omogućene mnogo veće mogućnosti na
svim poljima. Mjera nivoa humanog razvoja
ljudi u društvu koje procjenjuje nejednakost
u zdravstvu, obrazovanju i dohotku, IHDI je
tako konstruisan da se može direktno usporediti sa HDI različitih zemalja, što se odražava
na nejednakost u svakoj dimenziji HDI-a. U
uslovima savršene jednakosti HDI i IHDI su
jednaki. Kada postoji nejednakost u pristupu zdravstvu, obrazovanju i/ili prihodu, HDI
prosječne osobe u društvu je manji od ukupnog HDI.
Još uvijek postoji znatan prostor za napredak u mjerenju ljudskog razvoja. Izvještaj o
humanom razvoju 2010. je napravio značajan odmak od ideje da idealno mjerilo ljudskog razvoja mora pokriti samo tri osnovne
One of the basic claims in the 2010 Human
Development Report is that the measurement
of human development should be expanded beyond its basic dimension. 2010 Human Development Report introduced major innovations in
measurement by HDI, designed specifically to
address the key dimensions of inequality and
poverty, and it always confirms that the inequality in human development deserves serious consideration, and that averages can be misleading
(Klugman, Rodríguez & Choi, 2011, p. 33).
Adjusted HDI, introduced in 2010 Human Development Report, represents a reflection of the
progress made over the last two decades, thus
providing various options/opportunities in all
fields. The measure of human development level of people in a society that evaluates inequality
in health care, education and income, the IHDI
is designed in such way that it can be directly
compared with the HDI of various countries,
which reflects the inequality in each dimension
of the HDI. In the conditions of perfect equality
the HDI and IHDI are equal. When there is inequality in access to health care, education and/
or income, the HDI of an average person in a
society is less than the overall HDI.
There is still considerable room for improvement in the measurement of human development. 2010 Human Development Report has
made a significant progress from the idea that
the ideal measure of human development shall
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I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
dimenzije, te predstavio tri nove mjere koje
uzimaju u obzir različite aspekte distribucije ljudskog razvoja. Pored toga, na internet
stranici UNDP-a omogućeno je korisnicima
da izgrade svoj vlastiti indeks razvoja. Ova
funkcija omogućuje korisnicima da izgrade
alternativni HDI koristeći bilo koji od devet
potencijalnih dimenzija: pored osnovne tri,
korisnik može da bira indikatore u oblastima:
nejednakost, siromaštvo, spol, održivost, sigurnost ljudi i osnaživanje. Također, mogu birati između nekoliko pokazatelja za svaku dimenziju, zavisno od pondera unutar i između
dimenzija, a mogu unijeti i vlastite podatke.
HDI treba shvatiti kao polazište za razgovor
o tome šta se misli pod razvojem, a ne kao
krajnju tačku razvoja.
include only the three basic dimensions, and
introduced three new measures that consider
various aspects of the distribution of human
development. In addition, the website of the
UNDP enables users to make their own development index. This feature allows users to make
an alternative HDI using any of nine potential
dimensions: in addition to the basic three, the
user may select indicators in the following areas: inequality, poverty, gender, sustainability,
human security and empowerment. Likewise,
one may choose from a number of indicators for
each area, depending on the weight within and
amongst the areas, and the user may enter his/
her own data. HDI should be taken as a starting
point for discussion about what is meant by development, not as the end point of development.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Riječima „Ljudi su stvarno bogatstvo naroda.“ UNDP je 1990. objavio prvi Izvještaj
o humanom razvoju i započeo novi pristup
razmišljanju o razvoju, a vremenom, mjestom i uslovima se mijenjao, te održavao
temeljne vrijednosti. Provedenim istraživanjem potvrđeno je da nije lako pronaći način za holističko mjerenje životnog nivoa,
a ustanovljivanje indeksa humanog razvoja
od strane UNDP-a predstavlja jedan pokušaj
da se izmjeri životni nivo putem pokazatelja
koji rangira zemlje prema nivou „ljudskog
razvoja“, te koji ih svrstava u kategorije razvijenih, zemlje u razvoju i nerazvijene zemlje. HDI nije običan indeks, on pruža bolji uvid u osnovne aspekte ljudskog života.
Samo računanje HDI, u odnosu na početke,
je doživjelo nekoliko promjena, a 2010. godine počeo se koristiti novi obračun koji pokušava rangirati sve zemlje svijeta na skali
od 0 (najniži humani razvoj) do 1 (najviši
humani razvoj) na osnovu tri cilja ili krajnja
rezultata razvoja. HDI potpuniju sliku razvoja zemlje u odnosu na druge indikatore poput
GDP-a per capita, ali kako bi dao što potpuniju sliku razvoja treba ga mjeriti tokom
vremena. Od dana kada je objavljen, kritike su dolazile sa svih strana, a uglavnom su
In 1990, UNDP published the first Human Development Report with the phrase “People are
the real wealth of a nation”, thus initiating a new
approach thinking about the development, which
was influenced by time, place and circumstances
while maintaining its core values. The conducted
research has shown that it is not easy to find a method for the holistic measurement of quality of life,
and establishing the Human Development Index
by the UNDP represents an attempt to measure the
quality of life by the indicators ranking countries
on the basis of “human development”, and placing
them in categories of developed developing and
underdeveloped countries. HDI is not an ordinary
index. It provides a better insight into the fundamental aspects of human life. Simple calculation
of the HDI, compared to its beginnings , underwent several changes, and in 2010 a new calculation was introduced. A calculation that attempts to
rank all the countries worldwide on a scale from 0
(lowest human development) to 1 (highest human
development) based on three objectives or final
results of the development. HDI does provide a
complete overview of a country’s development as
compared to other indicators such as GDP per capita, but in order to obtain a more complete picture,
the development should be measured over time.
From the day it was released, there were many crit-
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I. ferjan: HOLISTIC MEASUREMENT OF QUALITY OF LIFE: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
usmjerene na dva opća područja, prvo, kako
definisati ljudski razvoj i kako posmatrati i
mjeriti njegove komponente i odrednice, a
drugi, kako iz različitih pokazatelja dobiti
jedan prihvatljiv indeks ljudskog razvoja kojim bi se mjerila njegova poboljšanja.
Kao odgovor na kritike UNDP je razvio
dodatne komplementarne alate, kao što
su: indeks siromaštva (HPI), indeks rodne
jednakosti (GDI), indeks rodnog osnaživanja (GEM). Međutim, ovi indeksi samo
pojašnjavaju HDI, a jedna od osnovnih
tvrdnji jeste da mjerenje ljudskog razvoja treba proširiti i ići izvan osnovne dimenzije. Nikada nije potvrđeno da HDI
predstavlja sveobuhvatnu mjeru ljudskog
razvoja i dobrobiti. Zato mjerenje HDI
konstantno evoluira i nikada neće perfektno da izmjeri humani razvoj. Prilagođeni
HDI koji je uveden 2010. godine predstavlja jedan od napredaka tokom posljednja
dva desetljeća od njegovog objavljivanja.
Ipak, još uvijek postoji znatan prostor za
napredak u mjerenju ljudskog razvoja,
a kako mjerenje humanog razvoja treba
da bude nešto više od prostog zbrajanja
pojedinih dijelova, mjerenje životnog nivoa putem indeksa humanog razvoja će i
dalje evoluirati. Konačno, iako HDI ima
nedostataka u mjerenju humanog razvoja,
ostaje pitanje šta su alternative?
icisms, mainly focused on two general areas: first
one - to define human development and to observe
and measure the components and determinants,
and the second one - to get an acceptable Human
Development Index from various indicators, in order to quantify its improvement.
In response to criticism, UNDP has developed
additional complementary tools such as: the Human Poverty Index (HPI), the Gender Development Index (GDI), Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM). However, these indices only explain
the HDI, with one of the basic claims is that the
measurement of human development should be
expanded beyond the basic aspect. It has never
been confirmed that HDI represents a comprehensive measure of human development and
well-being. Therefore, HDI measurement is constantly evolving and shall never measure human
development perfectly. Adjusted HDI, which
was introduced in 2010, represents one aspect
of the progress made over the last two decades
since the HDI has been released. However, there
is still considerable room for improvement in the
measurement of human development and since
measuring human development should be more
than a simple aggregation of individual parts, the
measurement of living standards via Human Development Index should continue to evolve. Finally, although the HDI has shortcomings in the
measurement of human development, the question is what the alternatives are.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Fukuda-Parr, S. & Kumar, S. (2004).
Readings in Human Development. New
York: Oxford University Press.
Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F. & Choi, H. (2010).
The HDI 2010: New Controversies,
Old Critiques U Human Development
Research Paper 2011/01. UNDP.
Kovacevic, M. (2010). Review of HDI
Critiques and Potential Improvements,
Human Development Research Paper
2010/33. UNDP.
Luigino, A. (2008). Capabilities and Happiness.
New York: Oxford University Press
Fukuda-Parr, S. & Kumar, S. (2004).
Readings in Human Development. New
York: Oxford University Press.
Klugman, J., Rodríguez, F. & Choi, H. (2010).
The HDI 2010: New Controversies,
Old Critiques U Human Development
Research Paper 2011/01. UNDP.
Kovacevic, M. (2010). Review of HDI
Critiques and Potential Improvements,
Human Development Research Paper
2010/33. UNDP.
Luigino, A. (2008). Capabilities and Happiness.
New York: Oxford University Press
67
I. Ferjan: HOLISTIČKO MJERENJE ŽIVOTNOG NIVOA: INDEKS HUMANOG RAZVOJA
National Statistical Coordination Board
Philippines (2014). Technical Notes on
the Computation of Human Development
Index (HDI). Preuzeto 08. marta 2014.
sa sajta http://www.nscb.gov.ph/ru12/
TechNotes/hdi.htm#Issues
Todaro M.P. & Smith C. S. (2006). Ekonomski
razvoj. Zagreb/Sarajevo: TKD Šahinpašić.
Udruženje ekonomista ACADEMIC. (2014).
Indeks humanog razvoja. Preuzeto
19. januara 2014 sa sajta http://www.
academic.ba/index.php?option=com_co
ntent&view=article&id=82%3Aindekshumanog-razvoja&catid=38%3Aistraiva
nja&lang=bs
UNDP.
(2011). Human Development
Report. Preuzeto 13. marta 2014 sa
sajta
http://www.undp.org/content/
undp/en/home/librarypage/hdr/human_
developmentreport2011.html
UNDP. (2010). Human Development
Report. Preuzeto 15. marta 2014. sa sajta
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/humandevelopment-report-2010
UNDP. (2013). Human Development Report.
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hdr.undp.org/en/2013-report
Yahoo!7 Answers. (2014). Discus the strength
and limitations of using human development
index?. Preuzeto 08. marta 2014 sa sajta
http://au.answers.yahoo.com/question/
index?qid=20080409050224AAYcEfm
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National Statistical Coordination Board
Philippines (2014). Technical Notes on
the Computation of Human Development
Index (HDI). Retrived March 08, 2014
from
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/ru12/
TechNotes/hdi.htm#Issues
Todaro M.P. & Smith C. S. (2006). Economic
Development. Zagreb/Sarajevo: TKD Šahinpašić.
Udruženje ekonomista ACADEMIC. (2014).
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academic.ba/index.php?option=com_co
ntent&view=article&id=82%3Aindekshumanog-razvoja&catid=38%3Aistraiva
nja&lang=bs
UNDP.
(2011). Human Development
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from
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undp/en/home/librarypage/hdr/human_
developmentreport2011.html
UNDP. (2010). Human Development
Report. Retrived, March 15, 2014. from
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/humandevelopment-report-2010
UNDP. (2013). Human Development Report.
Retrived, March 13, 2014. from http://hdr.
undp.org/en/2013-report
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and limitations of using human development
index?. Retrived, March 08, 2014 from
http://au.answers.yahoo.com/question/
index?qid=20080409050224AAYcEfm
PREDUZETNIŠTVO I MARKETING - ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND MARKETING
NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE
JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION
OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS
Prof. dr Miladin Jovičić
Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina
Mr Mirna Vukadin
Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina
Pregledni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402001J, UDK 334.752:658.114.2
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Evaluacija javno-privatnog partnerstva je
težak zadatak, jer sve prednosti i nedostatke saradnje javnog i privatnog sektora nije
lako izmjeriti i na osnovu njih procijeniti
analizu isplativosti poslovanja i utvrditi mogućnost ostvarenja dodatne vrijednost. Sve
to nameće potrebu za kontigentan pristup
ocjeni planiranog projekta koji se zasniva
na upravljanju neizvjesnostima, izbjegavanju neželjenih opasnosti i korištenju utvrđenih šansi. Primarni postupak vrednovanja opravdanosti korištenja primjene ovog
modela za rješavanje brojnih infrastrukturnih problema i pružanje kvalitetnih usluga
građanima je tzv. SVOT analiza i instrument kavntifikovanja „vrijednost za novac“.
Kombinacija pozitivnih aspekata ključnih
učesnika u SVOT analizi uopšteno omogućava poboljšanje efekata za implementaciju
partnerstva na osnovu kojih bi se povećao
potencijal uspješne saradnje javnog i privatnog sektora. Metodologijom testiranja vrijednosti za novac je moguće procijeniti da li
je konkretnu javnu investiciju opravdano isporučiti po tradicionalnom modelu i preuzeti
sve investicijske rizike, ili dio rizika prenijeti
na privatnog partnera i plaćati naknadu za
preuzete rizike.
The evaluation of public- private partnership
is a difficult task because of all the advantages
and disadvantages of cooperation between the
public and private sectors is not easy to measure
and evaluate them on the basis of cost-benefit
analysis of business and to establish the possibility of realizing additional value. All this raises
the need for contingent approach to the evaluation of the planned project, which is based on the
management of uncertainty, avoiding unwanted
ris and use of identified opportunities. The primary method of evaluation and justification of
the application of this model to solve the many
problems of infrastructure and the provision of
quality services is so-called SWOT analysis and
instrument to quantify “ value for money “. The
combination of the positive aspects of the key
participants in the SWOT analysis in general
to improve the effects of the implementation of
the partnership on the basis of which would increase the potential for successful cooperation
between the public and private sectors. Testing
methodology and value for money it is possible
to assess whether a particular public investment
is justified deliver the traditional model and assume all investment risks or part of risks transferred to the private partner and to pay compensation for the risks taken.
Ključne riječi: javno-privatno partnerstvo,
vrijednost za novac, infrastruktura.
Keywords: public-private partnerships, value
for money, infrastructure.
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Saradnja između javnog i privatnog sektora se u posljednjih nekoliko godina znatno
povećava, naročito u zemljama regiona, gdje
je potrebno poboljšati infrastrukturu i postići
standarde koji su prihvatljivi i u drugim razvijenim državama.
Zadovoljenje interesa lokalnih i regionalnih
zajednica, pored materijalnih i novčanih resursa, pretpostavlja i adekvatna znanja, a pogotovo inovativne pristupe upravljanju. Iskustva
mnogih zemalja pokazala su da je kod lokalnih
zajednica osnovni ograničavajući faktor razvoja nedostatak kvalitetnog ljudskog resursa (M.
Jovičić & A. Jovičić, 2011, str. 4).
Takođe, kontinuirana globalizacija, brz tehnološki i ekonomski razvoj mogu da ugroze
vitalne komponente mnogih komercijalnih
aktivnosti ovih zemalja ukoliko se ne iskoriste prednosti koje pružaju oba sektora u javno-privatnom partnerstvu (JPP). S obzirom
na to da je JPP složen i dugotrajan projektni
kompleks, koji uključuje procese od planiranja i realizovanja pa do upravljanja projektima, potrebno je koristiti metodologiju analize
osmišljenu na osnovu glavnog alata koji se
koristi u strateškoj analizi, tzv. SVOT analizu
projekta JPP.
Istovremeno, javni sektor mora voditi računa o realnom prikazu troškova u ponudama od
strane privatnog sektora, odnosno javni sektor
mora osigurati da odgovarajući projekat s privatnim sektorom obezbjeđuje tzv. vrijednost za
novac. Instrument kvantifikovanja „vrijednost
za novac“ se ne fokusira, dakle, samo na ekonomičnost u pružanju javnih usluga, već ocjenjuje vrijednost i kvalitet isporuke, što predstavlja
kompenzaciju cijene i kvaliteta u zadovoljavanju potreba korisnika usluga, tj. odgovarajući
standard kvaliteta za utvrđenu cijenu.
Cooperation between the public and private sector in recent years has significantly
increased, especially in the countries of the
region, where the need to improve infrastructure and achieve standards that are acceptable
in other developed countries.
In order to satisfy the needs on the local and
regional level (apart from money) adequate
knowledge and most important innovative
managing access are necessary. The experiences of many countries have shown that the
most important obstacle on the local level is
a lack of human resources (M. Jovicic & A.
Jovicic, 2011, p. 4).
Also, continuing globalization, rapid technological and economic development may
jeopardize a vital component of many commercial activities of this countries, if not exploit the advantages of the two sectors in the
public-private partnership (PPP). Since the
PPP complex and time-consuming project
complex, which includes the processes of
planning and implementing and managing the
project, it is necessary to use the methodology
of analysis designed on the basis of the main
tools used in strategic analysis, so-called
SWOT analysis of the PPP project.
At the same time the public sector must take
into account the real cost of view offered from
the private sector or the public sector must ensure that appropriate project with the private
sector provides so called value for money.
Instrument to quantify the “value for money”
does not focus so only the cost of providing
public services, but also assesses the value
and quality of delivery, which is the compensation cost and quality in meeting the needs
of service users, ie. appropriate standard of
quality for the set price.
SVOT ANALIZA JPP
SWOT ANALYSIS OF PPP
SVOT analiza je najčešće korišten kvalitativni alat koji ima za svrhu da utvrdi ukupan
potencijal djelovanja određenog projekta i da
SWOT analysis is the most commonly used
qualitative tool that has the purpose to determine the overall potential effects of a project
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE
identifikuje i potvrdi komparativne prednosti
svakog sektora pojedinačno, a koji predstavljaju značajni elemenat za razvoj svakog partnerstva.
Smatra se da ova analiza može da bude korisno sredstvo za razumijevanje tržišnih oscilacija, potencijala i pravca izvođenja operacija u JPP projektu. Faktori analize koji su
uključeni u svakom sektoru, mogu biti ponderisani ili predstavljeni hijerarhijski s obzirom
na njihov značaj za odvijanje faza u projektu.
Strateška opredeljenja projekta JPP se najčešće razlikuju u zavisnosti od vrste projekta.
Osnovni razlog za tako nešto je različitost u
vrednovanju potencijala i različitost u definisanju razvojnih prioriteta i ciljeva koji su relevantni za optimalno izvođenje projekata JPP.
Putem SVOT analize partnerstva doprinosi
se identifikovanju ključnih faktora: (1) utvrđivanju potencijala partnerstva, (2) opravdanju kontinuirane zainteresovanosti za JPP u
određenom sektoru ili (3) podržavanju izbora
kandidata koji treba da budu uključeni u sporazum o partnerstvu kako bi se obezbijedila
efikasnost.
Analitičkom alatkom kao što je SVOT analiza omogućava se da se najbitnije informacije organizuju, vrednuju i prezentuju na osnovu saznanja iz određene oblasti. Od učesnika
se očekuje da daju svoje mišljenje o tome koji
aspekti su slabosti i snage za razvoj određene
faze projekta i koje su spoljašnje mogućnosti i prijetnje. Takođe, ona omogućava i da se
uoče pozitivni i negativni faktori koji utiču na
ostvarenje i uspostavljanje ravnoteže između
internih sposobnosti i eksternih mogućnosti
(Vukadin, 2013, str. 81).
SVOT je inače akronim engleskih riječi: S Strenghts (prednosti/snage); W - Weaknesses
(slabosti/nedostaci), koje predstavljaju interne
ili unutrašnje faktore djelovanja; O - Opportunites (prilike/mogućnosti); T - Threats (prijetnje/
opasnosti), koje predstavljaju spoljašnje faktore
uticaja.
U kontekstu vremena, snage i slabosti predstavljaju sadašnjost temeljenu na prošlosti,
dok prilike i prijetnje predstavljaju budućnost
zasnovanu na prošlosti i sadašnjosti.
and to identify and confirm the comparative
advantages of each sector, which constitute
a significant element in the development of
each partnership.
It is believed that this analysis can be a
useful tool for understanding market fluctuations, potential and direction of operations in
the PPP project. Analysis of factors involved
in each sector can be weighted or represented
hierarchically with respect to their importance
for the performance phase of the project. The
strategic orientation of the PPP project is usually different depending on the type of project. The main reason for this is the diversity
in the evaluation of the potential and diversity
in defining development priorities and objectives that are relevant for the optimal performance of PPP projects. Through the SWOT
analysis of the partnership contributes to the
identification of key factors: (1) determining
the potential of a partnership, (2) justify continuing interest in PPP in a particular sector or
(3) supporting a candidate who should
be included in the partnership agreement
in order to ensure efficiency.
Analytical tools such as SWOT analysis
provides the essential information to organize, evaluate and present to the knowledge in
a particular field. Participants are expected
to give their opinion on what aspects of the
strengths and weaknesses of a particular stage
of development of the project and what are
the external opportunities and pretnje. Also, it
enables to detect positive and negative factors
affecting the achievement and the balance between internal capabilities and external possibilities (Vukadin, 2013, p. 35).
SWOT is an acronym of words: S Strengths (advantages/power); W - Weaknesses (weak/defects), which are internal or
inner factors acting; O - Opportunites (opportunities/occasions); T - Threats (threats/
risks), which represent external factors influence.
In the context of the time, strength and weaknesses are present based on the past, while
opportunities and threats are the future based
on the past and present.
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
U cilju kategorisanja informacija radi se
SVOT matrica (tabela 1) koja predstavlja dijagnozu trenutnog stanja javnog i privatnog
sektora.
In order to categorize information in order to sum SWOT matrix (Table 1), which is a
diagnosis of the current state of the public and
private sectors.
Tabela 1
Forma SVOT matrice
Table 1
Form of SWOT matrix
Interni faktori
[Internal factors]
Eksterni faktori
[External factors]
Prednosti/Snage (S)
[Strengths (S)]
Slabosti/Nedostaci (W)
[Weaknesses (W)]
Prilike/Mogućnosti (O)
[Opportunites (O)]
Maksimiziranje prednosti da bi se
iskoristile potencijalne mogućnosti.
[Maximizing the benefits to take
advantage of potential opportunities.]
Minimiziranje utvrđenih slabosti koje
sprečavaju da se iskoriste postojeće prilike.
[Minimizing identified weaknesses that
prevent the use of existing opportunities.]
Prijetnje/Opasnosti (T)
[Threats (T)]
Maksimiziranje postojećih prednosti
s ciljem smanjenja uticaja utvrđenih
prijetnji.
[Maximizing existing strengths in
order to reduce the impact of identified
threats.]
Minimiziranje slabosti koje mogu
dovesti do ostvarenja potencijalnih
opasnosti.
[Minimizing weaknesses that could
lead to the realization of the potential
danger.]
Kada se ispravno koristi, SVOT analiza
može pružiti dobru osnovu za formulisanje
strategije za postizanje optimalnih ciljeva
projekta u uslovima neizvjesnosti i dinamičkom okruženju. Na osnovu urađene SVOT
analize, može se potvrditi da je prednost projekata JPP u ostvarenju interesa javnosti, prije
svega. Naravno, postoje mnoge prepreke koje
treba prevazići da bi se JPP uspješno implementiralo. Privatni sektor može biti uspješan
samo ako ispunjava uslov socioekonomske
održivosti, što znači da, pored ostvarenja svojih interesa, mora da ostvari i da doprinese
stvaranju korisnosti za rast i razvoj društva,
a, istovremeno, ispuni i uslove isplativosti
posmatrano sa ekonomskog aspekta.
When properly used, a SWOT analysis can
provide a good basis for formulating strategies to
achieve optimal project objectives in terms of uncertainty and dynamic environment. Based on the
SWOT analysis done, it can be confirmed that the
advantage of PPP projects in achieving the public interest first and foremost. Of course, there are
many obstacles that must be overcome to successfully implement the PPP. The private sector can be
successful only if the requirements of socio-economic sustainability, which means that in addition
to the realization of their interests must achieve to
contribute to creating benefits for the growth and
development of the society, and at the same time
fulfill the conditions of profitability from the economic point of view.
INDIKATOR EFIKASNOSTI I BOLJE
VRIJEDNOSTI ZA NOVAC
INDICATOR EFFICIENCY AND BETTER
VALUE FOR MONEY
Termin „Vrijednost za novac“ se definiše kao
optimalna kombinacija sveukupnih životnih
troškova projekta i kvaliteta usluga u cilju ispu-
The term “value for money” is defined as the
optimum combination of the overall project
cost of living and quality of services to meet
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE
njavanja zahtjeva korisnika, odnosno postizanje
postavljenih ciljeva putem optimalnog korištenja
raspoloživih resursa (Grimsey & Lewis, 2004, str.
135). Dakle, argument za JPP je da on nudi potencijal obezbjeđenja bolje vrijednosti za novac i veće
inovacije u pružanju javnih usluga sa fokusom
na efikasnost kao i na kvalitet.
Ključni faktori koji se smatraju pokretačima vrijednosti za novac:
1. Konkurencija. Postojanje konkurencije
kreira okruženje koje ohrabruje sve učesnike da budu inovativni u kreiranju svojih rješenja i efikasni u isporuci usluga.
Jedan od ključnih benefita JPP je i koherentan pristup tokom cijelog životnog ciklusa (engl. whole-of-life cycle), koji se
ogleda u dizajniranju koje teži maksimizaciji efikasnosti usluga i minimiziranju
troškova životnog ciklusa projekta putem
upotrebe kvalitetnih materijala.
2. Rizici. Evolucija svijesti o identifikaciji,
alokaciji i upravljanju rizicima projekta je
napredovala do te mjere da se danas rizici smatraju ključnim segmentom procesa
JPP. Adekvatnim transferom rizika maksimizira se i očekivana vrijednost za novac,
jer je projektna kompanija sposobna da
redukuje kako vjerovatnoću nastanka rizika tako i finansijske implikacije takvog
događaja. U transferu rizika je veoma bitan optimum, a ne maksimum, jer je upravo optimalna alokacija rizika ključni element uspjeha JPP aranžmana (Sredojević,
2009, str. 35).
Grafikon 1. ilustruje princip optimalne podjele
rizika. Efikasna alokacija rizika obezbjeđuje
javnom sektoru najveću vrijednost za novac.
Međutim, ako je previše rizika, ili ukoliko su
pogrešni rizici transferisani ponuđaču (privatnom partneru), to može javni sektor koštati
više nego da su taj rizik zadržali.
Dakle, postoji tačka iza koje prenos rizika na privatni sektor nije isplativ za javni
sektor, jer nakon te tačke privatni sektor
zahtijeva značajnu isplatu ili podsticaj za
prihvatanje dodatnog rizika.
users’ requirements and achieving set goals
through optimum use of available resources
(Grimsey & Lewis, 2004, p. 135). Therfore,
the argument for PPPs is that they offer the
potential of providing better value for money
and greater innovation in public service delivery with a focus on efficiency and quality.
Key factors that are considered drivers of
value for money are:
1. Competition. The existence of competition creates an environment that encourages all participants to be innovative in
designing their solutions and efficient service delivery. One of the key benefits of
the PPP and coherent approach throughout the life cycle (whole-of-life cycle),
which is reflected in the design which
tends to maximize service efficiency and
minimize life cycle costs of the project
through the use of quality materials.
2. Risks. The evolution of consciousness
on the identification, allocation and risk
management of the project has progressed
to the point that today, the risks are considered a key segment of the PPP process.
Adequate transfer risk and maximize the
expected value for the money because the
project company is able to reduce both
the probability of risk, and financial implications of such an event. The transfer
of risk is very important optimum, not
maximum, since the optimal risk allocation key element in the success of the PPP
arrangement (Sredojević, 2009, p. 35).
Chart 1 illustrates the principle of optimal
risk sharing. Effective risk allocation provides the public sector the greatest value
for money. However, if it is too much risk,
or if the wrong risks transferred, the seller
(the private partner), the public sector can
cost more than that the risk retained.
So there is a point beyond which risk transfer
to the private sector is not cost-effective for
the public sector, because after that point the
private sector requires significant payment or
incentive for accepting additional risk.
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
Grafikon 1. Prikaz nivoa optimalnog prenosa
rizika (PPIAF & World Bank, 2006, str. 13)
Graph 1. Showing the level of optimal risk
transfer (PPIAF & World Bank, 2006, p. 13)
3. Koristi. Postoje finansijske i nefinansijske komponente koristi ili davanja. Pod
nefinansijskim komponentama koristi se
misli na društveno-ekonomske koristi za
korisnike usluga ili razvoj društva koje se
mogu postići putem investicija, ali koje se
ne mogu kvantifikovati i vrednovati u monetarnim terminima niti novčano izraziti,
za razliku od finansijskih komponenti koristi koje su mjerljive kroz prilive/odlive
gotovine.
Gdje god je moguće, vrijednost određene
naknade ili davanja treba mjeriti fizičkim
jedinicama na osnovu realnih ili procijenjenih cijena njihove vrijednosti. Ukoliko se ponuđenom koristi ili davanjem
trguje na tržištu, onda se to može iskoristiti za procjenu njegove vrijednosti. Ako
ne postoji tržišna cijena na raspolaganju,
postoje i druge alternativne metode za
utvrđivanje vrijednosti ponude. Neki od
pristupa podrazumijevaju da se prednosti i vrijednosti mogu utvrditi na osnovu
ponašanja potrošača, npr., odnos između
cijene nekretnine koje su predmet prodaje i životne sredine u kojoj se one nalaze.
Ukoliko je preferencija potrošača postojanje mira i tišine, onda će beneficije biti
u korist one ponude nekretnine koje, is-
3. Used. There are financial and non-financial components used or benefits. Under
the non-financial components used to refer to the socio - economic benefits for
service users and social development that
can be achieved through investment, but
that can not be quantified and valued in
monetary terms or express money, as opposed to the financial components of the
benefits that are measurable through inflows/outflows.
Wherever possible, the value of certain
benefits or benefits should be measured
in physical units based on the estimated
or actual cost of their value. If you are
offered a benefit or giving traded in the
market, then this can be used to estimate
its value. If there is no market price is
available, there are other alternative
methods for determining the value of the
bid. Some of the approaches include the
benefits and values can be determined
based on the behavior of consumers, for
example relationship between the price
of the property offered for sale and the
environment in which they are located. If
consumer preferences existence of peace
and tranquility, then the benefits will be
for the benefit of those properties that of-
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE
punjavajući taj uslov, obezbjeđuju bolju
životnu korist za utvrđenu novčanu vrijednost. Međutim, postoje i koristi koje
se mogu kvantifikati, ali ne i novčano
izraziti.
Npr., vrijednost nivoa obrazovanja može
se izraziti u brojevima provedenih godina
u školovanju, ali se na osnovu toga sistema evaluacije ne može procjeniti kvalitet
koji bi se mogao utvrditi putem novčane vrijednosti. Kod alternativnih fizičkih
mjera koje su na raspolaganju, treba izabrati onu koja je najviše u korelaciji s posebnim karakteristikama i percepcijama
zadovoljstva pojedinaca.
4. Troškovi. Fokusiranje na cjeloživotne troškove imovine umjesto samo na troškove koji su
unaprijed bili procijenjeni, obezbjeđuje da
troškovi nabavke nisu disproporcionalni projektu/projektima koje treba provesti.
Projektom JPP se ostvaruje vrijednost za
novac ako su troškovi projekta manji od
najboljeg realno ostvarivog alternativnog
projekta kojim bi se osigurale iste ili vrlo
slične usluge. Odnosno, vrijednost za novac se odnosi na najbolji utvrđeni rezultat
uzimajući u obzir sve pogodnosti, troškove i rizike tokom cijelog projekta.
Utvrđivanje vrijednosti za novac uključuje finansijske implikacije na ukupne
novčane tokove. S ciljem da se utvrde
ukupna plaćanja iz proračuna za namirenje ukupnih odliva projekta u ukupnom životnom vijeku javnoga projekta
(kod tradicionalnog modela) i ukupna
plaćanja iz proračuna za namirenje ukupnih odliva projekta koju bi imao privatni partner (kod JPP modela), potrebno je prirediti projekciju ukupnih priliva
i odliva za obje alternative, koje pored
stavki ukupnih životnih troškova, uključuju i odlive finansiranja. Na taj način
će se utvrditi koja alternativa uzrokuje veća plaćanja iz proračuna javnoga
tijela (Agencija za JPP, 2012, str. 10).
Postupak izračunavanja naknade po tradicionalnom i modelu JPP prikazan je
tabelarno.
fer, fulfilling this requirement, providing
a better environment for the benefit of
the established monetary value. However, there are benefits that are quantifiers,
but not fine to express.
For example, value education levels
can be expressed in numbers years
spent in education, but on the basis of
the evaluation system can not evaluate the quality of which could determine the monetary value. In alternative
physical measures that are available to
choose the one that is most correlated
with specific characteristics and perceptions of wellbeing.
4. Costs. Focusing on whole life costs of assets instead of only the costs that were estimated in advance ensures that procurement costs are not disproportionate to the
project/projects to be implemented.
PPP projects is achieved value for money
if the project cost less than the best realistically feasible alternative project that
would provide the same or very similar
services. That is, the value of money refers to the best score determined by taking into account all the benefits, costs and
risks throughout the project.
Determining value for money including
the financial implications of the overall cash flows. In order to determine the
total payments from the budget for the
settlement of the total outflow of the project total lifetime public project (the traditional model), and the total payments
from the budget for the settlement of the
total outflow of the project that would
have a private partner (in PPP model), it
is necessary to prepare a projection total
inflows and outflows for both alternatives
in addition to components of total living
costs include outlays of funding. This will
be a way to determine which alternative
causes higher payments from the budget
of public bodies (Agencija za JPP, 2012,
p. 10). The method of calculating fees for
traditional and PPP model is presented in
tables.
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M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: NAČIN VREDNOVANJA PRIMJENE JAVNO-PRIVATNOG PARTNERSTVA
Tabela 2
Postupci
izračunavanja
naknade
po
tradcionalnom i JPP modelu (Agencija za JPP,
2012, str. 10)
Table 2
Methods of calculating fees for traditional and PPP model (Agencija za JPP,
2012, p. 10)
Postupak izračunavanja
naknade po tradicionalnom
modelu
[Procedure calculate fees
by the traditional model]
Da bi se utvrdio odnos plaćanja kod pojedinih opcija, prvo je potrebno utvrditi
koliko bi tradicionalni model opteretio javne rashode proračuna javnog tijela.
Ovdje se, pri utvrđivanju, pored stavke ukupnih životnih troškova, koriste i
stavke koje se odnose i na finansiranje. Plaćanjem iz proračuna potrebno je
namiriti ukupne novčane troškove i odlive u ukupnom životnom vijeku javne
građevine.
[To determine the relationship of payment for these items, it is first necessary
to determine how much the traditional model burdened public expenditure
budgets of public bodies. Here, in addition to determining the total cost of
living items, used items relating to the financing. Payment from the budget
required to pay the total costs and cash outflows in the total lifetime of public
buildings.]
Postupak izračunavanja
naknade po JPP modelu
[Procedure calculate fees
by the PPP model]
Postupak izračuna naknade po JPP modelu provodi se po standardnom ekonomsko-finansijskom postupku proračuna budućeg poslovanja trgovačkog
društva. Tu spadaju projekcije finansijskih izvještaja (bilansa stanja, računa
dobitka i gubitka, novčanog toka), ekonomskog toka projekta, koeficijenata
pokrića i slično, a sve s ciljem da bi se, na temelju realnih pretpostavki, procijenila naknada koju bi privatni partner mogao tražiti od javnog partnera za
namirenje njegovih ukupnih troškova i odliva.
[The method of calculating fees on PPP model is carried out by standard economic and financial budgeting procedure future operations of the company.
These include projections of financial statements (balance sheet, income statement, cash flow), the economic flow of the project, coverage ratios and the
like, all with a view to, on the basis of realistic assumptions, assess the benefits
that the private partner could ask the public partners for the settlement of its
total costs and outflows.]
Ukoliko je sadašnja vrijednost ukupnih životnih troškova tradicionalne opcije veća od
ukupnih životnih troškova JPP opcije, opravdano je javnu građevinu isporučiti po JPP
modelu iz razloga što se tim modelom mogu
očekivati uštede javnih izdataka.
ZAKLJUČAK
Kad se pojam JPP posmatra kroz prizmu
ekonomskog razvoja, ovim modelom partnerstva obezbjeđuje se kombinovanje društvene odgovornosti prema potrebi rješavanja
brojnih infrastrukturnih problema i pružanja
kvalitetnih usluga građanima, sa finansijama,
tehnologijom, efikasnim upravljanjem i preduzetničkim duhom privatnog sektora. Složen
76
If the present value of total life cost of traditional options is greater than the total cost of
living PPP options, it is justified to the public
building to deliver by the PPP model for the
reason that this model can expect savings in
public expenditure.
CONCLUSION
When the concept of PPP is seen through the
prism of economic development, this model of
partnership provides a combination of social
responsibility to the need to address a number
of infrastructure problems and provide quality
services to citizens, with finance, technology,
efficient management and entrepreneurial spirit of the private sector. Compounding the com-
M. Jovičić; M. Vukadin: METHOD OF EVALUATION OF APPLICATION OF PUBLIC-PRIVATE
projektni kompleks JPP, koji uključuje procese od planiranja i realizovanja pa do upravljanja projektima, se metodološki može analizirati na osnovu ključnog kvalitativnog alata,
tzv. SVOT analize. Bazična ideja SVOT analize omogućuje realizaciju JPP na način koji
obezbjeđuje maksimalno korišćenje prednosti
i mogućnosti i minimiziranje slabosti i prijetnji. Takođe, SVOT analiza se može iskoristiti
da se kvalitativnim pristupom sugerišu sredstva, kapaciteti i potencijalni izvori konkurentske prednosti koji se mogu kombinovati
kompenzujući na taj način analitički utvrđene
slabosti i prijetnje. Dobro urađena analiza će
pomoći partnerima u projektu da se skoncentrišu na svoje snage, koriguju svoje slabosti
i spremni se suoče sa prijetnjama umanjujući njihovo negativno dejstvo i, konačno, da
prepoznaju i iskoriste sve mogućnosti koje se
ukažu prilikom razvoja projekta.
Pored strateškog alata, SVOT analize, za
opravdanje primjenjivosti modela JPP koristi se i metodologija testiranja vrijednost za
novac koja kod projekata JPP podrazumijeva
ostvarenje finansijske koristi na osnovu proračuna koji treba biti pretpostavka za pokretanje poslovanja putem JPP. U modelu JPP
ovaj instrument kvantifikovanja se dobija podjelom rizika sa privatnim sektorom, jer JPP
se zasniva na premisi da se rizik prenosi na
stranku koja je u boljoj poziciji da upravlja
njim, a, samim tim, i da ga minimizira.
Kombinacija pozitivnih aspekata ključnih
učesnika modela JPP utvrđenih uz pomoć
SVOT analize kao i optimalna alokacija rizika utiče na poboljšanje efekata za implementaciju partnerstva na osnovu kojih se povećava potencijal uspješne saradnje javnog i
privatnog sektora.
plex PPP project, which includes the processes
of planning and realization to the project management, the methodology can be analyzed on
the basis of key qualitative tool called amounts
analysis. The basic idea sums analysis enables
the implementation of PPP in a way that ensures maximum utilization of the advantages
and opportunities and minimize weaknesses
and threats. Also, the sum of analysis can be
used to get a qualitative approach suggested
resources, capacities and potential sources of
competitive advantage that can be combined
compensating thus analytically identified
weaknesses and threats. Well done analysis
will help project partners to aggressively focus
on its strengths, its weaknesses corrected and
ready to face the threats of minimizing their adverse effects and, finally, to recognize and take
advantage of all the opportunities that present
themselves when developing the project.
In addition to a strategic tool, the amount of
analysis, to justify the applicability of PPPs
used testing methodology and value for money
in PPP projects which implies the realization
of financial benefits on the basis of the budget
that should be a prerequisite for starting a business through PPP. In the PPP model to quantify
this instrument is obtained through risk sharing with the private sector because the PPP is
based on the premise that the risk is transferred
to the party that is in a better position to manage with it, and therefore it minimizes.
The combination of the positive aspects of
the key participants of the PPP model established
with the help of the sum of analysis as well as the
optimal allocation of risk improves the effects of
the implementation of the partnership on the basis
of which increases the potential for successful cooperation between the public and private sectors.
LITERATURA
REFERENCES
Agencija za JPP. (2012). Vrijednost za novac
kod projekata JPP (Priručnik 6, verzija
1). Preuzeto 23. februara 2014. sa sajta:
http://www.ajpp.hr/media/25207/p6_
vrijednost%20za%20novac%20kod%20
projekata%20jpp.pdf
Agencija za JPP. (2012). Value for money
in PPP projects (6 Manual, Version 1).
Rectrived February 24, 2014, from:
http://www.ajpp.hr/media/25207/p6_
vrijednost%20za%20novac%20kod%20
projekata%20jpp.pdf
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Grimsey D. & Lewis M. K. (2004). PPP-the
world wide revolution in Infrastructure
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Edward Elgar Publishing limited.
Jovičić M. & Jovičić A. (2011). Јavno-privatno
partnerstvo kao mogućnost poboljšanja
efikasnosti javnog sektora. Materijal
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International Symposium Engineering
Management And Competitiveness,
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Sredojević S.,(2009). JPP u finansiranju
infrastrukture u zemljama Balkana.
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teza,
Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet
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world wide revolution in Infrastructure
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Edward Elgar Publishing limited.
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I International Symposium Engineering
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PREDUZETNIŠTVO I MARKETING - ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND MARKETING
MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA
U USLOVIMA PRIVREDNE RECESIJE
MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES
IN THE CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC RECESSION
Prof. dr Marko Šarčević
Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Ekonomski fakultet Istočno Sarajevo-Pale
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Economy East Sarajevo-Pale
Prof. dr Tihomir Spremo
Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Ekonomski fakultet Istočno Sarajevo-Pale
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Economy East Sarajevo-Pale
Pregledni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402002S, UDK 338.124.4:316.43
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
U radu se polazi od činjenice da se savremeni svijet, poslovni ambijent i same kompanije nalaze u stalnim promjenama i turbulencijama. Istovremeno se vodi borba u
cilju suzbijanja ili amortizovanja negativnih
efekata dužničke krize koja se odražava na
ekonomiju velikog broja zemalja prijeteći
recesijom. Rad potencira značaj donošenja
ispravnih poslovnih odluka u uslovima nepovoljnog okruženja koje karakteršu pad proizvodnje, zaposlenosti, investicija, potrošnje,
tj. poslovne aktivnosti i afirmiše nove koncepte poslovne strategije za rešavanje problema negativnih efekata izazvanih dužničkom krizom.
Cilj rada je da na sažet način pruži objašnjenje i ponudi odgovor o konceptu efikasnog
donošenja odluka kao prihvatljiv model poslovne strategije preduzeća u cilju uspješnog
kontrolisanja i postepenog otklanjanja negativnih efekata prouzrokovanih recesijom.
In this paper we start from the fact that the modern world, business environment and companies
themselves exist in the conditions of perpetual
changes and turbulences. At the same time, there
is a fight going on with the purpose of suppressing or relieving the negative effects of debt crisis
that reflect on the economy of a great number of
countries and threatens with recession. The paper insists on the importance of making the right
business decisions in the conditions of unfavourable environment characterized by decrease of
production, employment, investments, consumption, i.e. business activities, and it affirms the new
concepts of business strategy for resolving the
problem of negative effects of debt crisis.
The aim of the paper is to offer, in a concise
manner, an explanation and answer regarding the
concept of efficient decision making as acceptable
model of business strategy of an enterprise with
the goal of successful control and gradual relief of
negative effects caused by recession.
Ključne riječi: strategija, restrukturiranje,
recesija, kompanija, downsizing.
Key words: strategy, restructuring, recession,
company, downsizing.
UVOD
INTRODUSTION
U vrijeme dok nastaje ovaj rad, u svjetskoj
javnosti počinje da se govori o mogućoj novoj
prijetnji zastoja ekonomije evro zone. Ohrabrujući optimizam usljed prvih znakova opo-
At the time of writing this paper, the prevailing concern of the world public has been a new
possible threat of the slowdown of the Eurozone
economy. Encouraging optimism caused by the
79
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
ravka ekonomije evro zone nakon prezentovanih stopa rasta početkom 2013. godine nije
trajao dugo. Tek što su se pojavili prvi znaci
oporavka ove ekonomije, pojedine razvijene
zemlje Evropske unije sa dozom zabrinutosti
objavljuju da problemi nisu prevaziđeni i da
predviđeni ekonomski rast može bit doveden
u pitanje.
Evropska unija je, prema zvaničnom sopštenju, u prvoj polovini 2013. godine izašla
iz recesije, ali izgledi za rast su slabi i neizvjesni. I pored čvršće fiskalne politike, stopa nezaposlenosti i dalje je visoka, pri čemu
se, ipak sa dozom opreza, očekuje da će BDP
rasti za 1,4 odsto u 2014. godini (Ujedinjene
Nacije, 2013, str. 4).
Budući da svoju aktivnost kompanije ostvaruju u konstelaciji tržišnih, društveno-političkih, ekonomskih i ostalih faktora, od menadžmenta se očekuje da razumije kako snagu
promjena u faktorima okruženja tako i njihov
uticaj na poslovni ambijent. Ako se promjenom, posebno u uslovima krize, ne upravlja
na pravi način, dolazi do dodatnih gubitaka
unutar preduzeća. Transformacija organizacije se, u savremenim uslovima, predstavlja
kao uslov strategije rasta i razvoja preduzeća,
jednako kao i uslov njegovog oporavka i opstanka.
Potrebe za adaptiranjem i inoviranjem koncepcije poslovanja inicirane negativnostima
svjetske ekonomske krize su neminovne za
većinu kompanija. Restrukturiranje je aktivnost kojom se ubrzava ekonomski razvoj i
koja se stoga već godinama praktikuje u razvijenim zemljama tržišne privrede, putem
raznih transformacionih poduhvata u domenu vlasništva, organizacije, upravljanja, kao
i tržišnog i finansijskog restrukturiranja kako
bi se povećala efikasnost i konkurentnost
preduzeća na domaćem i svjetskom tržištu.
Probleme koje Republika Srpska ima još od
globalne krize, kao što su akutna nelikvidnost
privrede, skupi krediti banaka, veliko otpuštanje radnika, prije svega, u privatnom sektoru,
mogli bi dodatno opteretiti i onako nepovoljan poslovni ambijent eventualnim zastojen
ekonomije u Evropskoj uniji.
80
first signs of Eurozone’s economic revival after
the presentation of the growth rate at the beginning of 2013 did not last long. Just when the
first signs of the economy revival occurred, certain developed countries of the European Union declared, with some level of concern, that
the problems were not overcome and that the
planned economic growth could still be at stake.
According to the official statement, in the
first half of 2013, the European Union left
recession, but growth prospects were weak
and uncertain. Despite firmer fiscal policy,
unemployment rate is still high, wherein
GDP growth by 1,4 % is expected in 2014
although with some caution (United Nations,
2013. p. 4).
Since companies perform their activities in
a mixture of market, social and political, economic and other factors, it is expected from
the management to understand the strength of
the change of environment factors, as well as
their influence on business surrounding. If the
change is not managed in the right way, especially in the state of crisis, additional losses within an enterprise will occur. In modern
conditions, the transformation of organization
is presented as the condition of growth strategy and enterprise development as well as the
condition of its revival and survival.
Need for adaptation and innovation of business concept initiated by the negative aspects
of the world economic crisis is inevitable for
most of the companies. Restructuring is an activity by which economic development is accelerated and thus it has been applied for years in
developed market economy countries, through
various transformation ventures in the domain
of ownership, organization, management, as
well as market and financial restructuring, with
an aim to increase efficiency and competitiveness of their enterprises on the local and world
market. Problems that the Republic of Srpska
has to deal with since the global crisis, such
as acute economy insolvency, expensive bank
loans, big layoffs, first of all in the private sector, could additionally burden already unfavourable business environment with possible
economic halt in European Union.
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
Što se prije pristupi analizi dejstva krize,
utoliko su veće šanse da se ona predupredi ili
da se, barem, umanje njene posljedice. Odgovori na krizu se moraju tražiti i dobiti na svim
nivoima i u svim sektorima privređivanja
Problematika savremenog tržišnog poslovanja više nego ikad se nalazi u fokusu interesovanja kako menadžment struktura savremenih
preduzeća tako i državnih institucija i akademskih krugova. Kontinuirana integracija
svjetske ekonomije, gotovo nevjerovatne tehnološke promjene i globalna političko-ekonomska dešavanja uz prirodne katastrofe i
društvenu neodgovornost, samo su okviri koji
definišu nove uslove savremenog poslovanja.
Savremeno preduzeće posluje u bitno drugačijim uslovima u odnosu na njegov doskorašnji poslovni ambijent. Eksterni uslovi i interna ograničenja su mnogo kompleksniji nego
što su bili u prethodnoj deceniji.
Jedna od bitnih karakteristika savremenog
poslovanja vezana je za efikasan proces poslovnog restrukturiranja. Osnovni cilj restrukturiranja je što bolje tržišno pozicioniranje u
kontekstu stalnih promjena u poslovnom ambijentu. Sa sve većim i nepredvidivim promjenama u tržišnom okruženju, od menadžmenta
kompanija se očekuje da se dovoljno brzo i
na vrijeme prilagođava, ali i da pravovremeno uoči mogućnost nastanka tih promjena i
ispravno reaguje.
Borba za opstanak na tržištu i profit su glavni motiv i cilj preduzeća. U cilju opstanka na
tžištu, menadžment preduzeća mora pronaći
puteve i odgovore na dejstvo faktora okruženja odgovarajućom strategijom, promjenom
poslovne politike, kao i drugim mjerama.
Rješenja se najčešće nalaze u prilagođavanju
novonastalim uslovima privređivanja.
U kriznoj situaciji menadžment kompanije
i vlasnici imaju na raspolaganju više mogućih modela transformacije organizacije. Za
koji će se model kompanija odlučiti, zavisi
od vlastitih resursa, kao i uzroka, karaktera
i obima krize. Određene situacije zahtijevaju
metode transformacije koje daju prioritetne
i selektivne promjene, dok se u drugim slučajevima primjenjuje postepena reorgani-
The sooner crisis effects are analysed the
greater are the chances to prevent it or at least
to decrease its consequences. Answers to crisis have to be sought and resolved at all levels
and in all economic sectors.
Problems of modern market economy are
more than ever in the focus of interest of modern enterprises’ management structures, as
well as state institutions and academic circles.
Continued integration of the world economy,
almost incredible technological changes and
global political and economic developments
with natural disasters and social irresponsibility, represent only frameworks that define
new modern business conditions. Modern
enterprise operates in significantly different
conditions compared to its recent business
environment. External conditions and internal
limitations are much more complex than they
were in the previous decade.
One of important characteristics of modern
business is related to efficient business restructuring process. The main goal of restructuring is the best possible market positioning
in the context of permanent change in business environment. With growing and unpredictable changes in market surroundings it is
expected from the company management to
adapt fast enough and on time, but also to perceive in a timely manner possible occurrence
of changes and react appropriately.
Fight for survival and profit is the main motif and the goal of an enterprise. With an aim
to survive on the market, enterprise management must find ways and answers to the effects of environment factors with appropriate
strategy, change of business policy and other
measures. The solutions are usually found in
adjusting to new economic conditions.
In a crisis situation, the company management and owners have several possible models of organization transformation available
for bailout. Which model a company will use
depends on its own resources, as well as causes, character and scope of a crisis. Certain
situations demand methods of transformation
that offer priority and selective change, while
in other situations it applies gradual transfor81
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
zacija bez radikalnih zahvata. Prije nego što
se donese odluka o primjeni odgovarajućeg
modela izlaska iz krize, menadžment prvo
identifikuje situaciju i daje dijagnozu stanja,
analizira proizvodne, tržišne i finansijske karakteristike preduzeća pa tek onda donosi odluke kao ciljeve poslovne strategije preduzeća. Najčešći model reorganizacije preduzeća,
za kojim poseže menadžment i koji često nije
adekvatno rješenje, je model restruktuiranja
„downsizing”, tj. smanjenje poslovnih aktivnosti preduzeća a, u skladu sa tim, i smanjenje
broja zaposlenih.
Istraživanje motiva i determinanti dezinvestiranja predmet su stručnih i empirijskih studija.
Međutim, najnovija dešavanja vezana za donošenje poslovnih odluka u uslovima globalne krize i
privredne recesije daju dovoljno razloga da se o
ovom fenomenu posveti posebna pažnja sa teorijskog i naučnog stanovišta u cilju pružanja pomoći menadžmentu za donošenje dobrih poslovnih
odluka kao jedan od modela strategijskog manevrisanja. U najvećem broju radova proučavani su
motivi ovog strategijskog pravca rasta sa aspekta
preduzeća koje se restrukturiše, kao i sa aspekta
determinanti dezinvestiranja. Jedan od bitnih razloga vezan za loše poslovne rezultate kompanije
je prouzrokovan opštom finansijskom krizom. U
cilju umirenja intezivnog talasa otpuštanja radnika i pada privredne aktivnosti, pogotovo u velikim i nepredvidivim ekonomskim krizama, efikasno restrukturiranje koje obuhvata znatno širi
asortiman mjera kao model reorganizacije preduzeća treba da predstavlja dobar put na podizanju
unutrašnje sposobnosti preduzeća i ublažavanju
negativnih efekata recesije.
Sve te neizvjesnosti i otvorena pitanja sa
kojima se neprekidno susreću menadžment,
lideri i vlasnici, predstavljaju veliku enigmu i
teško rješiv problem kad se zna da su uspjeh i
neuspjeh odvojeni vrlo tankom niti. Na temeljima vođenja poslovne politike u poslovnoj
praksi i literaturi prisutni su problemi, lutanja
i različiti koncepti koji ne daju adekvatan odgovor na pitanje kako kroz poslovnu strategiju preduzeća optimizirati odnos sa okruženjem u cilju održive vitalnosti? Ovi momenti
kao i nepredvidivost savremenog okruženja
82
mation without radical actions. Before passing a decision on applying appropriate model of bailout, management firstly identifies
situation and gives state diagnosis, analyses
production, market and financial characteristics of enterprise and then passes decisions
as goals of business strategy of an enterprise.
The most common model of enterprise reorganization chosen by the management, and
usually inadequate solution, is restructuring
model downsizing, i.e. decrease of business
activities of an enterprise, and in accordance
with that decrease in number of employees.
Research on motives and determinants of
disinvestments is subject of expert and empirical studies. But, latest developments regarding making business decisions in conditions
of global crisis and economic recession give a
reason to devote special attention to this subject from theoretic and scientific point of view
with an aim to assist the management to take
a good business decision as one of models of
strategic manoeuvring. In the greatest number
of papers, motives of this strategic direction
are examined from the aspect of restructuring
enterprise, as well as from the aspect of disinvestment determinants. One of important
reasons related to bad business results of a
company is caused by general financial crisis. In order to pacify the intensive wave of
layoffs and decrease of economic activities,
especially in big and unpredictable economic
crisis, efficient restructuring should represent
a good way for increasing inner capabilities of
enterprise and relieving the negative effects of
recession.
All these uncertainties and questions that
management, leaders and owners face represent
great enigma and hardly solvable problem when
one knows that there is a thin line between success and failure. On the basis of business policy running in business practice and literature
there are problems, wanderings and different
concepts that do not give adequate answer to the
question – How to optimize relationship with
surroundings through business strategy of an
enterprise with an aim to sustain vitality? These
problems as well as unpredictability of modern
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
opredjeljuju da ovo započeto istraživanje ima
naučni i misaoni aspekt.
U radu se nastoje prezentovati sve karakteristike lošeg, ekonomski i društveno neopravdanog pristupa, ishitrenog i paničanog
odgovora menadžmenta na negativan uticaj
efekata privredne recesije, primjenom modela downsizinga, kao jednog od modela (oblika) poslovnog restrukturiranja. Pokušava se
objasniti značaj pristupa analize snaga i slabosti kompanije u kontekstu šansi i opasnosti uticaja faktora okruženja i aktivnosti na
konačnom odabiru poslovne strategije kao
modela restrukturiranja u realizaciji strategije oporavka.
environment demand of this research to take a
scientific and contemplative aspect.
In this paper, the goal is to present all characteristics of inadequate, economic and socially
unjustified approach, hasty and panic management response to negative effects of economic
recession, by applying downsizing model, as
one of models (forms) of business restructuring. It is our attempt to explain the importance
of the analysis of good and weak points of a
company, in the context of possibilities and
threats of the environment influence and activities regarding the final selection of business
strategy as the model of restructuring in the
implementation of the revival strategy.
POSLOVNA KLIMA:
ZNACI KLIME I PREDVIĐANJA
BUSINESS CLIMATE:
CRISIS SIGNS AND PREDICTIONS
Opravdano se strepi od moguće stagnacije
evropske ekonomije koja bi se mogla negativno
odraziti na i onako iscrpljenu svjetsku ekonomiju, a posebno, na nedovoljno snažne ekononije
cijelog regiona čije ekonomije su vezane za privredu Evropske unije. Sve negativnosti sa kojim
se suočava značajn broj zemalja u svijetu kao
posljedice prethodne ekonomske krize, uz negativne efekte nove krize, mogu dodatno umanjiti
poslovne rezultate kompanija.
Uprkos umjerenom optimizmu povodom
zvaničnih saopštenja da je obuzdana kriza u
evro zoni i da je ova ekonomija izašla iz recesije, ipak su ostale bojazni da bi eventualno
duži zastoj ekonomskog rasta imao negativan
uticaj i na veći broj malih i nedovoljno razvijenih ekonomija.
U dokumentu UN/DESA „Svjetska ekonomska
situacija i perspektive” (2013) prezentovana su
nova predviđanja rasta svjetske ekonomije za 2013.
i 2014. godinu. Ono što je karakteristično je da su
rađena tri pristupa predviđanja rasta GDP-a (optimistički, pesimistički i osnovni scenario). U dokumentu se navodi da se predviđa blagi oporavak globalne ekonomije, pri čemu kao optimistički scenario
je prezentovan od 4,5% rasta GDP-a, realistički od
3,2% rasta GDP-a, dok bi najsumorniji izgled rasta
GDP-a iznosio svega 1,1%. (grafikon 1).
Possible European economy stagnation is feared
with a good reason because it could effect already
exhausted world economy and especially insufficiently strong economies of the whole region
whose economies are quite related to the European Union economy. All negativities that significant
number of world countries is facing, such as consequences of previous economic crisis, coupled with
negative effects of the new crisis, can additionally
decrease companies’ business results.
In spite of modest optimism caused by official
announcements that the crisis was under control
in Eurozone and that this economy came out of
recession, there is concern that potential longer
slowdown in economic growth would have negative effect on greater number of small and insufficiently developed economies.
A document UN/DESA-World Economic Situation and Prospects (2013) presents all new predictions regarding the growth of world economy in
2013 and 2014. What is characteristic is that there
are three approaches to growth of GDP (optimistic, pesimistic and baseline scenario). It is stated in
the Document that mild recovery of global economy is predicted, with 4,5% GDP growth presented
as optimistic scenario, 3,2% GDP growth as realistic and the most gloomy GDP growth predictions
would be only 1,1%. (Graph 1).
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
4,1
4,1
Bazna linija
[Baseline]
Optimistic scenario
4,0 [Optimisti
]
3,8
4,5
2,7
2,2
1,4
Pesimisti
[Downside scenario]
3,2
Bazni scenario
2,4 [Baseline scenario]
1,1
0,2
-2,1
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Grafikon 1. Rast svjetskog bruto-drustvenog
prizvoda, 2006-2014. (Ujedinjene nacije, 2013)
Graph 1. Growth of world gross product,
2006-2014. (United Nations, 2013)
Prezentovanjem najnovijih pokazatelja u dokumentu UN-a, svjetska ekonomska situacija i
perspektive 2014., predviđa se rast GDP-a na globalnom nivou od 3%, što predstavlja lošiju prognozu u odnosu na prethodno predviđenu stopu
rasta (3,2% realistička prognoza) iz 2013. godine.
Nove pesimističke prognoze zastoja globalnog rasta, a posebno, razvijenih ekonomija evro
zone mogu dodatno pogoršati poslovnu klimu
u regionu i dovesti u pitanje blagi rast privredne aktivnosti započet nakon što je privreda Republike Srpske izašla iz recesije. Privreda je
platila visoku cijenu prethodnog talasa, tako da
bi zastoj ekonomije zemalja Evropske unije sa
kojom Republika Srpska ima značajnu spoljnotrgovinsku razmjenu dodatno oslabio domaću
ekonomiju.
U uslovima krize većina kompanija, po svaku cijenu, nastoji prevazići krizu zanemarujući
korporativnu odgovornost, neplanskim otpuštanjem radnika i redukcijom postojećih troškova.
The newest indicators in UN Document,
World Economic Situation and Prospects
2014 , predict GDP growth by 3% at the global level, which is worse prediction compared
to previously predicted growth rate (3,2% realistic prediction) from 2013.
New pessimistic predictions of the slowdown
in global growth, especially in developed economies of Eurozone, could additionally impair
business climate in the region and question mild
growth of business activities started after the
economy of the Republic of Srpska came out
of recession. Economy paid a high price for the
previous wave, so that the slowdown in the European Union economies with which the Republic of Srpska has significant foreign exchange,
would additionally weaken domestic economy.
In the state of crisis, most of companies try
to overcome crisis at any cost, neglecting corporate responsibility, with unplanned layoffs
and existing costs reduction.
UPRAVLJANJE I PRAVCI
USAGLAŠAVANJA POSLOVNIH
PROCESA U USLOVIMA RECESIJE
MANAGMENT AND DIRECTION OF
HARMONIZATION WITH BUSINESS
PROCESSES IN CASE OF RECESSION
Budući da se u tržišnim privredama ostvaruje stalan proces dinamičkih promjena,
Since the constant process of dynamic
change runs in market economies, which is
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
koje su teško predvidive i na koje preduzeće najčešće ne može uticati, sve to doprinosi i neprekidnim procesima prilagođavanja
preduzeća tim promjenama putem raznih
oblika poslovnog restrukturiranja. Prethodne godine globalne ekomske krize i privredne recesije bile su veliki izazov za većinu
preduzeća koja su, vještinom manevrisanja
u procesu upravljanja, nastojala da se održe
uz što manje posljedice. Većina preduzeća
osjetila je sve negativne efekte recesije na
poslovnu aktivnost, čiji uticaj nastoji izbjeći, ili što prije amortizovati. S obizorom na
date okolnosti, posljedice se najčešće manifestuju u padu poslovne aktivnosti, što obavezuje maksimalnu mobilnost menadžmenta na donošenju strategijskih odluka kako
bi se zaustavio dalji pad poslovnih rezultata
i omogućio opstanak i održiva konkurentnost.
U nastojanju da spriječe dalji pad poslovnih
performansi koje bi mogle dovesti u pitanje
opstanak na tržištu, menadžment kompanija nastoji primijeniti strategiju oporaka koju
pojedini teoretičari nauke o menadžmentu
prezentuju kao strategiju koja se sastoji iz dva
koraka (Couleter, 2010, str. 270): (1) smanjenja troškova i (2) restrukturiranja.
Smanjenje troškova kao odgovor na opadanje poslovnih performansi ne može biti u
vezi sa razvijanjem konkurentske prednosti,
nego način da se ostvarene performanse jedne kompanije usklade sa prethodno očekivanim poslovnim rezultatima. Osnovni cilj menadžmenta u nastojanju da smanji troškove
poslovanja je revitalizacija učinka kompanije.
Jedan od prvih i najčešćih poteza za kojim
menadžment poseže u nastojanju da radikalnije smanji troškove je primjena downsizinga, koji predstavlja oblik restrukturiranja u
okviru kojeg se zaposleni otpuštaju sa posla
u skladu sa smanjenjem poslovnih aktivnosti
kompanije. Zapažen broj naučnih skupova je
organizovan u cilju da se pokuša dati pravi
odgovor menadžmentu kompanije u cilju efikasnog i efektivnog upravlja kompanijom u
uslovima iznenadnih kriza izazvanih globalnim poremećajima.
hard to predict and which an enterprise most
often can not influence, it contributes to enterprise’s continuous processes of adaptation to the changes through various forms
of business restructuring. Previous years of
global economic crisis and economic recession were great challenge for most enterprises
that tried to survive with as little as possible
consequences using manoeuvring skills in
management process. Most enterprises felt all
negative effects of recession onto their business activity and they tried to avoid these or
relieve them as soon as possible. Under given circumstances, the consequences of which
are usually manifested in the decrease of business activity, maximum management mobility is required regarding strategic decisions
which could stop further decrease of business
results, enable survival and sustain competitiveness.
In the attempt to prevent further decrease of
business performances which could question
survival on the market, the company management tries to apply recovery strategy which
certain theoreticians in the area of management science present as strategy that consist
of two steps (Couleter, 2010, p. 270): (1) Cost
decrease and (2) Restructuring.
Cost decrease as an answer to decrease of
business performances can not be correlated
with development of competitive advantage,
but it is a way to adjust performances of one
company with previously expected business
results. The main goal of management in attempting to decrease business costs is revitalisation of company’s performance.
One of the first and most common moves
that management reaches for in an attempt to
radically decrease costs is applying downsizing, which represents the form of restructuring in the framework of which employees are
fired in line with decrease of business activities of company. Significant number of scientific reunions were organized with an aim
to try to give the right answer to company
management in order to manage company efficiently and effectively in conditions of sudden crisis caused by global disturbances.
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
Rasprave i zaključci temeljeni na analizama
modela i postupaka koji su prezentovani nisu
dali očekivane rezultate. Kod većine poznavalaca ove problematike preovladava stav da ne
postoji rješenje kao model koji se može primijeniti za svaku kompaniju sa izgledom za
konačni uspjeh. Objašnjenje je dosta jednostavno: ni jedna kompanija, bez obzira koliko
je slična, ne može biti identična sa drugom
kompanijom, niti može biti pod istovjetnim
uticajem faktora poslovne sredine. Sa tim stavom se i na posljednjem međunarodnom ekonomskom forumu u Davosu, okvirno, složila
većina prisutnih, izbjegavajući da dâ odgovor
kao model preduzetnih i makroekonomskih
stavova u pravcu efikasnijeg prevazilaženja
negativnih trendova kod privreda u recesiji.
Teško je objasniti razlog ishitrene primjene downsisinga kod menadžmenta velikog
broja kompanija kad se nađu pod negativnim uticajem ekonomske krize prije detaljne
analize vlastitih resursa, šansi i opasnosti u
kojima se nalaze ne tražeći rešenje primjenom jednog od modela procesa restrukturiranja. Iz tog razloga prisutno je mišljenje
da je neophodno na jedan način (stručne rasprave, pisane brošure i uputstva) detaljnije
objasniti i upravljačkim strukturama svih
nivoa dinamiku poslovnih aktivnosti koja
treba da doprinese u rješavanju tog složenog
problema. Izostavljanje sistematične i stručne analize resursa kompanije, menadžment
rizikuje da donese pogrešnu odluku koja
kompaniju može dovesti u lošiju poziciju
od postojeće, pa čak da nestane sa poslovne
scene.
Na takav korak se najčešće odlučuje onaj
menadžment koji svoje zaposlene vidi kao
trošak koji treba smanjiti, umjesto kao neku
vrstu resursa koji treba razvijati. U prvom
slučaju zaposleni se od strane odgovornih u
kompaniji posmatraju kao roba, dok se u drugom slučaju vide kao izvor inovacija. Smanjivanje broja zaposlenih nije isto što i organizaciono smanjivanje. Smanjivanje poslovanja je
namjerena, aktivna strategija menadžmenta,
dok je smanjenje organizaciona pojava koja
se dešava bez uticaja volje i izaziva smanje86
Discussions and conclusions based on the
analysis of models and procedures that were
presented did not give the expected results.
Most people that are acquainted with these
problems believe that there is no solution in a
form of a model that can be applied in every
company with prospects of ultimate success.
Explanation is rather simple: no company, no
matter how similar, can be identical to any
other, nor can it exist in identical influence of
business environment factors. Most of participants of International Economic Forum
in Davos agreed with this opinion, avoiding
giving an answer as the model of enterprising and macroeconomic attitudes directed to
more efficient overcoming of negative trends
of economies in recession.
It is difficult to explain the reason of hasty use of
downsizing by the management of great number
of companies when faced with negative effects
of economic crisis and prior to detail analysis of
their own resources, opportunities and threats
without looking for solution by applying one
of the models of restructuring process. For this
reason it is believed that it is necessary in some
way (expert discussions, leaflets and guides) to
explain in detail to management structures of
all levels the dynamic of business activities that
should contribute to the complex problem solving. Leaving out systematic and expert analysis
of resources, opportunities and threats coming
from business environment by applying one of
known reorganization models, management risks
to take a wrong decision that could bring company in worse situation than it is already in; it could
even disappear from business scene.
This move is made usually by management
that sees their employees as cost to be cut, instead of some kind of resource to develop. In
the first case, employees are seen as goods by
the responsible in the company, while in the
second case they are seen as source of innovation. Decrease in the number of employees
is not the same as organizational decrease.
The decrease in business is intentional active
strategy of management, while decrease is organizational phenomena that happens without
will and causes decrease in the basis of enter-
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
nje baze preduzeća. Vejn F. Kasio pokazuje
da je humanost ono najvažnije kod postizanja
ekonomskih ciljeva. Na pitanje da li su firme
koje otpuštaju svoje radnike profitabilnije od
onih koje to ne čine, odgovor autora je - NE!
(Casio, 2003, str. 49). Zato je sasvim logično upitati se da li je otpuštanje zaista efikasan
pristup poslovnom restrukturiranju i ispitati
alternativne pristupe, pogotovo ako je pristup
tom procesu od strane menadžmenta nesistematičan, ishitren i u panici od nadolazećih
poslovnih problema.
Dosadašnja iskustva su potvrdila da primjena modela downsizinga kao poslovne
strategije manevrisanja u cilju troškovne
efikasnosti i neutralisanja iznenadnih negativnih efekata na kompanije bez prethodnih
sistemskih analiza najčešće ne daje očekivane rezultate, pri čemu kompanija prividno
smanuje troškove, dok poslovna efikasnost i
efektivnost stagnira i postaje društveno neodgovorna, ignorišući interese zaposlenih,
lokalne zajednice, nacionalne ekonomije pa i
društva u cjelini. Nastojeći panično smanjiti
troškove, menadžment se najčešće odlučuje
da smanjuje poslovne aktivnosti u dijelovima kompanije koje počinju da iskazuju lošije poslovne rezultate donoseći odluku o otpuštanju radnika. Rast stope nezaposlenosti
uz smanjenu poslovnu aktivnost predstavlja
bitne ekonomske indikatore lošeg poslovnog
ambijenta i dodatno usložnjava upravljanje
kompanijama.
Takva neodgovornost menadžmenta doprinosi lošijem stanju u privrednom razvoju lokalne zajednice i društva u cjelini, što u uslovima recesije predstavlja poseban problem.
Budući da se u tržišnim privredama ostvaruje stalan proces dinamičkih promjena, to doprinosi i neprekidnim procesima prilagođavanja
preduzeća tim promjenama putem raznih oblika poslovnog restrukturiranja. Restrukturiranje
preduzeća zemalja u tranziciji i identifikovanje
pravaca restrukturiranja usmjereni su nešto
drugačije. Najčešći problem krize i ugroženosti opstanka s kojim se značajan broj preduzeća susreće, te potreba ne samo stvaranja novog već i rušenje starog prevaziđenog načina
prise. Wayne F. Cascio shows that humanity
is the most important when attaining economic goals. Author’s answer to the question - Are
firms that fire their employees more profitable than the ones that do not do that, is NO!
(Casio, 2003. p. 49). Thus, it is very logical
to ask oneself are layoffs really an efficient
approach to business restructuring and examine alternative approaches, especially if the
approach to this process by management is
non-systematic, hasty and panic due to coming business problems.
Previous experiences confirmed that use of
downsizing model as a business manoeuvring
strategy towards cost efficiency and the neutralization of sudden negative effects to companies
without previous systematic analysis usually do
not bring expected results, company seemingly
cuts costs, while business efficiency and effectiveness stagnates and becomes socially irresponsible, ignoring interest of employees, local community, national economy and society as a whole.
By panicky cutting costs, management most often decides to cut business activities in company
sections that start having poorer business results
by passing a decision on layoffs. Employees are
additionally assigned with new activities, other
material outputs are to be cut, and this represents
inhuman attitude towards employees. Growth of
unemployment rate together with decreased business activity represent important economic indicators of bad business environment and it additionally complicates company management.
Such management irresponsibility contributes to
worse conditions in economic development of the
local community and society as a whole, which is a
significant problem at the times of recession.
Since permanent process of dynamic changes is being realized in market economies, it
contributes to unending processes of adapting
companies to these changes through various
forms of business restructuring. Enterprise restructuring in transition countries and identification of restructuring directions have a little
bit different direction. Most common problem
of the crisis and vulnerability of the survival
of a significant number of companies, a need
for creating new business modes, as well as
87
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
funkconisanja privredne djelatnosti ovo pitanje
čine kompleksnijim i teže rješivim.
Dobar primjer uspješnog restrukturiranja
kompanije u teoriji poznat kao pristup organizacionog restrukturiranja viđen je u kompaniji
General Electric 80-tih godina prošlog vijeka
kad su evidentni loši poslovni rezultati gurnuli jednu od najmoćniji svjetskih kompanija u
krizu. Jack Walch je, preuzevši vođenje ove
kompanije, promovisao koncept „organizcija
bez granica“ uspješnom zamjenom neprilagođene vertikalne strukture horizonalnom, primijenjujući i strategiju downsizinga (DeWitt,
1998, str. 59-79). Proces restrukturiranja Walch je sprovodio na planskom smanjenju broja
zaposlenih (downsizing), preko mehanizama
kao što su fluktuacije, prijevremeno penzionisanje, dobrovoljni otkazi i otpuštanje, što se
pokazalo uspješnim, jer je vrijednost kompanija svake godine rasla po 23%. Za razliku od
globalne finanisijskie krize i nadolazeće dužničke krize koje su iznenadne i nepredvidive,
sa snažnim efektima negativnih udara, kriza
poslovanja u koju je zapala kompanija GE se
najčešće stvara duži period koju menadžment
ne prepoznaje ili na nju ne obraća dovoljno
pažnje. Budući da se uzroci dosta razlikuju,
i proces izlaska iz krize nije indentičan. Situacije gdje su evidentni negativni efekti recesije, zahtijevaju metode transformacije sa
strateškim odlukama u cilju amortizovanja
prvog negativnog udara (smanjenje troškova), nakon čega se pristupa analizi interakcije
sa okruženjem i konačnom odabiru modela za
reorganizaciju, dok u stabilnom poslovnom
ambijentu kompanije primjenjuju sistematičnu reorganizaciju, „step by step“, kao odgovor na krizu. Primjena downsizinga, paralelno
sa procesom organizacionog restrukturiranja
kao koncepta reorganizacije u nacionalnom i
globalnom okruženju za kompaniju General
Electric je bio prihvatljiv za izlazak iz krize
zbog povoljnosti uticaja faktora ekonomske
sredine, dok bi primjena u uslovima recesije
bila daleko neizvjesnija. Kompanija GE, da bi
smanjila troškove, kao prvi neophodan korak,
u strategiji oporavka odlučila se na češću primjenu tehnike elektronskog poslovanja prili88
destroying the old outdated ones, make this
issue even more complex and hardly solvable.
A good example of successful company restructuring, in theory known as organisational
restructuring approach, is the example of General Electric Company from the 80s of the last
century where evidently bad business results
pushed one of the most powerful world companies into crisis. Jack Walch, taking lead in the
company, promoted a concept of “organization without borders” that included successful
transformation of maladjusted vertical structure to horizontal one by applying the strategy
of downsizing (DeWitt, 1998, p. 59-79). Walch
carried out the process of restructuring on
planned downsizing of the number of employees through mechanisms like fluctuations, early
retirements, voluntary resignations and layoffs
which proved successful because the value of
companies grew by 23% every year. Unlike
global financial crisis and upcoming debt crisis,
which are unexpected and unpredictable with
strong effects of negative impacts, the business
crisis that befell GE Company is usually created
during longer period of time and management
does not recognize it or does not pay enough
attention. Since samples are quite distinctive,
the process of bailout is not identical. Situations
when negative effects of recession are evident
do not require methods of transformation with
strategic decisions in order to relieve the first
negative impact (cutting of costs), after which
it is necessary to approach to the analysis of the
interaction to environment and final selection of
the model for re-organization, while in stable
business atmosphere companies apply systematic re-organization, step-by-step, as an answer
to the crisis. Implementation of downsizing,
parallel to process of organizational restructuring as a concept of re-organization in national
and global environment for General Electric
Company, was acceptable for getting out of the
crisis because the factors of influence of economic environment were favourable, while the
implementation in terms of recession would be
far more insecure. In order to decrease expenses, the GE company as the first essential step
in recovery strategy decided to apply the elec-
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
kom nabavki, kao i korišćenje programa Six
Sigma1, pri čemu je samo od 1999. do 2002.
godine je uštedila oko 8 milijardi $ (Arndt,
2002, str. 73).
Strategiju restrukturiranja prihvataju nerazvijna, bolesna ili ugrožena preduzeća ili
kompanije koji se nalaze na pragu značajnih
promjena. Prvi koraci su odluke nadležnih za
promjenu postojećeg menadžmenta za koji se
vežu loši poslovni rezultati. Da bi sam proces
strategije restrukturiranja funkcionisao, neophodno je organizovati upravljački tim koji
je sposoban da uoči najprihvatljiviji model
za transformaciju. Kompanija koja prihvata
akviziciju kao oblik restrukturiranja sa novim
i nepoznatim oblastima poslovanja, odlučuje
se za model čiji proces zahtijeva duži vremenski period. Ukoliko kompanije do kojih
se došlo akvizicijom ne mogu da se integrišu kako bi ostvarile potpuno novu stratešku
poziciju „nisu ništa drugo do prikriveni menadžeri portfelja“ (Porter, 2008, str. 141).
tronic business technique when purchasing, as
well as using Six Sigma Programme1, whereby
only from 1999 to 2002 saved about 8 billion $
(Arndt, 2002, p.73).
Restructuring strategy is accepted by underdeveloped, corrupted or endangered companies on the verge of significant changes.
First steps are decisions of the authorized to
change the present management connected
with poor business results. In order to process strategic restructuring it is necessary to
organise control team capable of choosing
the most acceptable model for transformation. The company which accepts acquisition
as a model of restructuring with new and unknown areas of business decides on a model
whose process requires long period of time.
If the companies, seized by acquisition, cannot integrate in order to realize completely
new strategic position, as M. Porter points
out, they are nothing else but covert portfolio managers (Porter, 2008, p. 141).
PRAVCI STRATEGIJSKOG
MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA
COURSES OF STRATEGIC
MANOEUVRING OF COMPANIES
Okruženje utiče na preduzeće, ali i preduzeće, kroz široki repertoar strategijskih opcija, nastoji da mijenja okruženje, smiruje ga,
ili, pak, nastoji da smanji njegov uticaj na
svoje poslovanje. Onda kad se na bazi autonomne interakcije preduzeća ostvari optimalni nivo usaglašenosti vlastitih resursa,
potrebe kupaca, konkurentski pritisak, kritični faktori uspjeha i kreiranje konkurentske
prednosti, može se reći da su stvoreni uslovi
za razmah preduzetničkog duha i novih poslovnih ideja.
Menadžment preduzeća prilikom donošenja
odluke za strategiju izlaska iz krize, napušta poslovnu filozofiju „šta je dobro za državu, dobro
je i za preduzeće“. Svojom strategijskom vizijom, poslovnom dosjetljivošću i spremnošću
preuzimanja rizika, kreira budućnost putem radikalnog zaokreta u poslovnoj politici pod im-
The environment influences the company, but
the company, through various strategic options,
also tries to change the environment, to moderate it, or to decrease its influence on the company business. Then, when on the basis of autonomic interaction of companies the optimal
level of compatibility of their own resources,
the needs of consumers, competitive pressure,
critical factors of success and creation of competitive advantage is reached, it can be said that
the conditions for progress of entrepreneurial
spirit and new business ideas are acquired.
By making decision for strategic bailout,
company management abandons business
philosophy „what’s good for the state is good
for the company“. With its strategic vision,
business wittiness and willingness to take the
risk, they create the future through radical
turns in business politics under influence of
1 „Six Sigma“ je standard kvaliteta koji postavlja cilj da
ne bude više od 3,4 kvara na milion jedinica ili procedura.
1 “Six Sigma“ is a quality standard that sets a goal of
no more than 3,4 defective parts to a million of units/
parts or procedures.
89
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
paktom smanjenja troškova koja ide na smanjenje poslovnih aktivnosti preduzeća, napuštanje
određenih aktivnosti, sužavanje asortimana proizvoda, zatvaranje pojedinih pogona, a u skladu
sa tim, i na smanjenje broja zaposlenih.
Naučna i stručna javnost su jedinstvenog
stava da zbog izuzetno brojnih specifičnosti
faktora okruženja u kome posluje preduzeće
i karakteristika preduzeća, ne postoji jedinstven program (koncept) pristupa ponašanja
u međusobnoj interakciji koji bi mogao poslužiti kao uzorak-model za sva preduzeća u
cilju najuspješnijeg korišćenja šansi i savlađivanja opasnosti na putu reformi za prevazilaženje negativnih uticaja krize. To je usko
vezano za sistematičnu i situacionu analizu
internih snaga i slabosti poslovnih sistema i
eksternih faktora poslovnog ambijenta. Dosadašnja iskustva na prevazilaženju negativnih uticaja kriza koje se ciklično javljaju sa
jačim i slabijim intenzitetom, kompanije su
dosta nespremno dočekale i panično nastojale prevazići, pri čemu su pravljene greške
u donošenju poslovnih odluka. Budući da se
prvi znaci negativnih efekata javljaju u lošijim poslovnim rezultatima rastom troškova
i padom tražnje, uprava panično poseže za
metodom dezinvestiranja primjenom modela
downsizinga.
Smanjivanja i sužavanja poslova mogu
se posmatrati kao kratkoročna defanzivna
strategija, odnosno odgovor preduzeća na
ekonomsku recesiju, skup novac, kreditne
recesije, kao i ostale restriktivne mjere ekonomske politike koje se najčešće odnose na
kreditno-monetarnu politiku koju sprovodi
država u određenom periodu. Brojni su stavovi poznavalaca ove problematike koji ističu razliku između aktivnosti koje preduzeća
sprovode na smanjenju poslova i sužavanju
poslova. Za smanjenje poslova veže se kao
rezultat manji broj zaposlenih i manji broj
poslovnih jedinica preduzeća, dok se kod sužavanja poslova nastoji ostvariti smanjenje
širine poslovanja, a za rezultat ima eliminisanje poslovnih jedinica koje se ne uklapaju
u ono što menadžment definiše kao suštinu
poslovanja preduzeća. Osnovno je da sve što
90
reducing expenses which aims to lessen company business activities, abandon certain activities, narrow assortment of products, close
several machineries and thereby reduce the
number of employees.
Academia and professional circles share
the unique attitude that due to extremely numerous specificity of the factors, there is not
a unique program (concept) of behaviour approach in the mutual interaction that would
serve as sample-model for all companies in
order to make use of the opportunities in the
most successful of ways and overcome the
dangers on the reform road and negative influences of the crisis. This is closely related to
systematic and situational analysis of the internal forces and weaknesses of the business
systems as well as exterior factors of business
environment. Former experiences with overcoming negative effects of the crisis which
occur periodically with stronger or weaker intensity, companies received quite unprepared
and in panic tried to overcome them while
making mistakes in taking business decisions.
Since the first signs of negative effects occur
in poorer business results, with growth of
expenses and fall in demand management in
panic reaches for the method of disinvesting
by implementing the model of downsizing.
Reducing and narrowing the business can
be seen as temporary defensive strategy, apropos the answer of the companies to the
economic recession, expensive money, credit
recessions as well as other measures of economic policies most often referred to credit
and monetary policy enforced by the state in
certain period. The opinions of the experts
are that there is the difference between the
activities that the companies enforce in order to reduce or narrow the business. The
less number of employees and less number
of business units is related to reducing business, while narrowing the business endeavours to achieve decrease in the width of the
business, and as a result has the elimination
of business units which do not fit in what is
defined as the essence of the company’s business. The basis is that everything that does
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
ne doprinosi sinergiji jeste predmet preispitivanja, smanjenja ili sužavanja. Smanjenje
preduzeća obuhvata set aktivnosti od strane
menadžmenta preduzeća kako bi se poboljšala njegova efikasnost, produktivnost i/ili konkurentnost. To je poslovna strategija koja se
primjenjuje kako bi planirano uticalo na broj
zaposlenih i procese koji se koriste (Milsavljević, 2002, str. 267). Nije sporno da finansijska sredstva koja preduzeće dobije prodajom
jednog svog dijela može da koristi u svrhu
vlastitog investicionog ulaganja. Uspješnom
poslovnom transakcijom, kao poslovnom
strategijom dezinvestiranja, sredstva dobijena na taj način se ulažu u predviđeno saniranje perspektivnih dijelova preduzeća u cilju
zadržavanja postojeće pozicije ili poslovnog
rasta. Sve to daje dovoljno argumenata za
konstataciju da je strategija dezinvestiranja u
funkciji konsolidacije i repozicioniranja preduzeća u privrednoj strukturi bitan strateški
proces u prevazilaženju negativnih efekata
recesije za svaku kompaniju.
Veoma je bitno da se analiza, planiranje i
sprovođenje dezinvestiranja posmatraju kao
korisne aktivnosti i, kao takve, treba da budu
integralni dio strategije oporavka preduzeća,
a ne ad hoc aktivnost u kriznom upravljanju
(Schmidt, 1987, str. 28).
Proces dezinvestiranja zahtijeva sistemski
pristup, pri čemu se utvrđivanje potrebe za
dezinvestiranjem smatra početkom aktivnosti. Dalje se identifikuju poslovi koji su najpogodniji za dezinvestiranje u kontekstu svih
potreba. Svaki posao koji treba dezinvestirati
neophodno je ocijeniti u smislu njegovog tržišta i konkurentskog okruženja. Poslije toga se
razmatraju različite opcije za izlazak kako bi
se ocijenila dinamika i stvaranje optimalnog
iznosa gotovine za matično preduzeće. Na
kraju, formuliše se strategija i taktika prodaje.
Bez obzira što se odluka o poslovnoj strategiji
dezinvestiranja može donositi u periodu opšte
finansijske krize i recesije kada pojedini modeli trenutno nisu najprihvatljiviji na finansijskom tržištu, sam pristup procesu mora biti
prostudiran sa svih aspekata kako bi se izbjegla greška.
not contribute to the synergy is a matter of
reviewing, reducing or narrowing. Reducing
of the company includes the set of activities
done by the management in order to improve
its efficiency, productivity and competitiveness. It is a business strategy that is enforced
in order to deliberately influence the number
of employees and existing processes (Milsavljević, 2002, p. 267). Unquestionably, the
financial funds that the company gains by
selling one of its parts can be used in purpose
of the company’s own investments. With the
successful business transaction, as a disinvesting business strategy, funds gained in
that way are invested in calculated sanitation
of promising parts of the company in order
to maintain the present position or business
growth. All this gives enough arguments to
say that disinvesting strategy in purpose of
consolidation and repositioning of the company in economic structure is important strategic process in overcoming the negative effects of recession for every company.
It is very important that analysis, planning
and implementing of disinvesting are considered as useful activities and as such should be
the integral part of strategic recovery of the
company, and not to be ad hoc activity in crisis management (Schmidt, 1997, p.28).
The process of disinvesting demands systematic approach, where the identification of
the need for disinvesting is considered as the
beginning of the activity. Then, the businesses
that are the most convenient in context of all
needs are identified. Every business that needs
to be disinvested should be assessed in terms
of its market and competitive environment. After that various options for getting out of the
crisis are considered in order to determine the
dynamics and generating the optimal amount
of cash for master company. Finally, the strategy and selling tactics are formulated. Regardless that the decision on business strategy of
disinvesting can be made during the period
of financial crisis and recession, when certain
models are not acceptable on the financial market, the approach itself must be studious from
every aspects in order to avoid errors.
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
Postupak strategije oporavka kompanije
koja je izazvana uticajem privredne recesije,
zahtijeva od menadžmenta sistematičan i profesionalan pristup analzi postojećih resursa
kompanije i šansi i opasnosti koje dolaze iz
poslovnog ambijenta. Sljedeći pravac je vezan za donošenje odluke o restrukturiranju
odabirom najprihvatljivijeg modela (sell off,
spin off, split off) i, na kraju, kad pojedinačni
primijenjeni model ne bude dovoljno efikasan
u svom nastojanju da smanji troškove i restrukturiše svoje poslovanje, kompanija može
pribjeći tzv. taktici downsizinga.
Strategija dezinvestiranja je kontrakcioni
model finansijske transformacije preduzeća u
kome se mogu razlikovati tri uobičajena tipa
dezinvestiranja (Gogan, 2004, str. 558):
1. prodaja preduzeća ili dijelova preduzeća
(sell off, liquidation);
2. odvajanje - osamostaljivanje dijelova preduzeća (spin off) i
3. razdvajanje preduzeća (split off).
Prvi tip sell of podrazumijeva permanentnu
prodaju dijela aktive, odnosno cijelog preduzeća u zamjenu za procijenjenu vrijednost
koja se najčešće dobija u gotovini. To je način
na osnovu koga se nastoji pronaći preduzeće
koje će taj dio poslovanja uspješno uklopiti
u sopstveni portfolio. Sell off se najčešće odnosi na periferne i manje profitabilne jedinice
preduzeća.
Drugi tip spin off je oblik transformacije
kad se manji dio poslovanja osamostaljuje, a
vlasništvo se razdvaja, tako da je izdvojena
poslovna jedinica manja u poređenju s matičnim preduzećem koje ostaje kao posebna
matična cjelina. Odvajanje dijelova preduzeća od matičnog preduzeća često je motivisano
politikom vlade da favorizuje poslovanje malih preduzeća.
Treći tip split off je oblik trnsformacije preduzeća kad razdvojene firme postaju posebna
pravna lica s posebnim vlasnicima. Za razliku od odvajanja spin off, kad se jedna firma
odvaja od matice koja se osamostaljuje, kod
razdvajanja se radi o podjeli dvije podjednake
cjeline koje postaju posebna pravna lica.
92
Strategic recovery procedure of the company influenced by economic recession demands management’s systematic and professional approach to the analysis of present
company’s resources and opportunities and
threats coming from business environment.
Next direction is deciding which model (sell
off, spin off, split off) is the most acceptable
for restructuring and finally, when single enforced model is not efficient enough in its
attempt to decrease expenses and restructure
its business, the company can apply so called
downsizing tactics.
Disinvesting strategy is a contractive model of the company’s financial transformation
where three common types of disinvesting
can be distinguished (Gogan, 2004, p. 558):
1. selling of the company or its parts (sell
off, liquidation);
2. separation-independence of company’s
parts (spin off) and
3. splitting of the company (split off).
The first type, sell off, implies permanent selling of active parts or the entire
company in exchange for estimated value
most commonly received in cash. Based on
this, it is possible to find a company which
would fit that part of business successfully
into its own portfolio. Sell off mostly refers to peripheral and less profitable company’s units.
Second type, spin off, is the form of transformation when the smaller part of the business
becomes independent, and the ownership is
divided, so that the independent unit is smaller compared to the master company which remains the special master unit. Separating the
parts of the company from the master company is often motivated by government politics
to favour the small company business.
Third type, split off, is the form of transformation when separated companies become
separated legal entities with separate owners.
Unlike spin off, where one company separates from the master company, split off is
about splitting two equal units which become
separate legal entities.
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
Holdingovanje se može posmatrati kao strategijski metod poslovnog manevrisanja preduzeća zasnovan na pravnoj formi, čiji je glavni
razlog uspostavljanje vlasničke, odnosno upravljačke prevlasti na budućim članicama ovog sistema. Upravljačko potčinjavanje i uključivanje
u holding do tada samostalnih preduzeća vrši se
putem njihovog integrisanja i pripajanja.
Od know-how menadžmenta, kao ključnog
faktora poslovanja, se očekuje da kreiranjem
savremene poslovne strategije i organizacijom poslovnih procesa efikasno i efektivno
ostvaruje misiju preduzeća. Osnovni kriterij
te uspješnosti je kreiranje satisfakcije za potrošače, akcionare, zaposlene i društvenu zajednicu.
Model interakcije preduzeća treba da prikaže jedan aktivan odnos prema okruženju. Taj
odnos podrazumijeva sposobnost preduzeća
da, anticipirajući nastanak promjena, nastoji brže iskoristiti uticaj njihovih povoljnosti,
minimizirajući troškove prilagođavanja zbog
nastanka nepovoljnih okolnosti i nastoji da
amortizuje uticaj nepovoljnih okolnosti na
poslovnu aktivnost, čime smanjuje zavisnost
od okruženja.
Budući da pod mentalnom mapom podrazumijevamo sposobnost, obrazovanje, dovitljivost, sklonost, uticaj u sredini i tradiciji,
oštroumnost, kulturu, starost i druge lične
karakteristike ljudi koji čine upravljački tim,
onda je logično da će ona predominantno
opredjeljivati profil strategijskog ponašanja prema okruženju kao značajne komponente ukupne poslovne strategije. Mentalna
mapa kao takva nalazi se između okruženja
i internih mogućnosti preduzeća i poslovne
strategije kao osnovnog rezultata odlučivanja
menadžmenta. Od nje će zavistiti ispravno
razumijevanje i odnos prema izazovima, mogućnostima i ograničenjima, odnosno poslovnim šansama i opasnostima, resursima i kritičnim faktorima uspjeha, putem donošenja i
primjene poslovnih odluka. Naime, opredeljivanje strategije prema okruženju bazira se
na: (1) prethodnom analiziranju i predviđanju
razvoja faktora okruženja, te identifikovanju
šansi, opasnosti i njihovo dimenzioniranje sa
Holding can be observed as a strategic
method of business manoeuvring of companies based on legal basis, whose main reason
is establishing proprietary or managerial control on future members of this system. Managerial submission and inclusion in holding by
then independent companies is done by their
integrating and affiliation.
From know-how management, as a key factor in business, is expected, through creating
modern business strategy and organising business processes, to efficiently and effectively
achieve the goal of the company. The basic
criterion of that success is creating satisfaction in consumers, shareholders, employees
and social community.
Model of company interaction needs to show
an active relation towards the environment. This
relation is about the ability of the company to try,
by anticipating the occurrence of changes, to use
the influence of their advantages as soon as possible, by minimising the costs of adaptation due
to occurrence of unfavourable circumstances
and endeavours to relieve influence of unfavourable circumstances on the business activity with
which it reduces the environment dependency.
Since mental map represents ability, education, wit, influence on environment and tradition, cleverness, culture, age and other personal traits of those who make the management
team, then it is logical that mental map will
predominantly determine the profile of strategic behaviour towards the environment as
significant component of total business strategy. Therefore, mental map stands between
environment and internal possibilities of the
company, and business strategy as basic result of management decision making. Prude
judgement and relation to challenges, possibilities and limitations, business opportunities and dangers, resources and critical success factors, will all depend on that through
taking and implementing business decisions.
Namely, choosing the strategies according
to its environment is based on: (1) previous
analysis and prediction of the environment development factors, identifying opportunities,
dangers and their dimensioning from the point
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
stanovišta veličine efekata, vjerovatnoće nastanka i urgentnosti reagovanja; (2) ocjene resursnih mogućnosti preduzeća u poređenju sa
kritičkim faktorima uspjeha i jakim i slabim
stranama konkurencije i (3) liderskih oštroumnosti i menadžerskih vještina.
Konstelacija snaga tržišnih, tehnoloških,
privredno-sistemskih, političkih, kulturnih,
socijalnih, ekoloških i ekonomskih faktora,
manje ili više, direktno ili indirektno, povoljno ili nepovoljno djeluju na uspješnost poslovanja preduzeća
Polazi se od toga da je najbolji put da preduzeće na bazi analize i predviđanja okruženja identifikuje šanse i opasnosti prema snazi
i uticaju utvrdi ciljeve i konačno koncipira
metode strategije manevrisanja za realizaciju
izabrane strategije.
Sagledavajući trenutnu situaciju u kojoj se
preduzeće nalazi, kao i mogući uticaj faktora
šansi i opasnosti, koncipirajući metode strategije manevrisanja, strategijske opcije na koje
se upravljačka struktura preduzeća odlučuje
mogu obuhvatati: održavanje i povećavanje
tržišnog učešća u postojećem okruženju, napuštanje nepovoljnog i nepopravljivog okruženja ulaženjem na tržište sa drugačijim faktorima makrookruženja, stvaranje uslova za
amortizovanje faktora nepovoljnog okruženja
kroz diversifikaciju proizvoda, nabavki i razvoj informacionog sistema i selektivno poboljšavanje segmenata okruženja, koji trenutno imaju negativno dejstvo.
Prema tome, uspješno strategijsko manevrisanje kompanija u privrednoj recesiji treba da
se zasniva na odgovornom, zdravom, naprednom i ukupno korisnom razvojnom ponašanju. Njegovo vezivanje za realne kategorije,
kao što su konkurentska prednost, tržište,
profit i slično je potvrda jednog stava da suštinu savremenog poslovnog upravljanja čini
sposobnost spajanja liderstva, menadžmenta
i preduzetništva, tako da se vitalnost biznisa
obezbjeđuje upravljanjem promjenama koje
generišu konkurentske prednosti imajući u
vidu optiku potrošača, društva akcionara, kreditora i šire drušvene zajednice.
94
of greatness of effects, probability of occurrence and urgency of response; (2) estimates
on the resource possibilities of the companies
in comparison to critical success factors and
strong and weak points of competitors; and
(3) leadership sharpness and managerial skills.
More or less, directly or indirectly, favourably or unfavourably, the constellation of the
forces of market, technological, systematic,
political, cultural, social, ecological and economical factors affect the success of the company business.
Starting point is that the best way for the company on the basis of the analysis and prediction of the
environment, to identify opportunities and threats
according to its strength and influences, determine
goals and finally draft the methods of strategic manoeuvring for realisation of the chosen strategy.
Based on the current situation of the company and possible influence of opportunities and
threats, drafted methods of the manoeuvring
strategies and options that managerial structure chooses can comprise: maintenance and
increasing market involvement within existent
environment, abandoning unfavourable and
irreparable environment through entering the
market with different factors of macro-environment, creating conditions for relieving the
unfavourable environment factors through diversification of the products, procurement and
development of informational system and selective improvement of the environment segments, that currently have negative impact.
So, successful strategic manoeuvring of the
companies in economic recession needs to
be based on responsible, healthy, progressive
and utterly useful development behaviour. Its
relation to real categories, such as competitive
advantage, market, profit and so on, confirms
the attitude that essence of modern business
management is the ability of joining leaderships, managements and entrepreneurships,
so that business vitality is secured through
managing changes that generate competitive
advantages bearing in mind the optics of the
consumers, shareholders groups, creditors
and broader social community.
M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
Poslovna aktivnost dezinvestiranja uslovljena je sistemskim pristupom. Odabir i primjena modela isključivo se vežu za situacioni
pristup. Proces počinje utvrđivanjem potrebe
za dezinvestiranjem. Dalje se identifikuju poslovi koji su najpogodniji za dezinvestiranje u
kontekstu svih potreba. Svaki posao koji treba
dezinvestirati neophodno je ocijeniti u smislu
njegovog tržišta i konkurentskog okruženja.
Prvi cilj ovakve strategije je direktno smanjenje troškova eliminacijom nekonkurentnih
proizvoda, uključujući i smanjenje troškova
za plate otpuštenih radnika. Strategija smanjenja broja zaposlenih može dovesti i do negativnih efekata, pogotovo za one koji ostaju
u preduzeću, jer se od njih očekuje da svojim
radom nadoknade i rad bivših zaposlenih, što
često dovodi do povećanja intenziteta i obima
rada.
Cilj ovakve orijentacije je da se smanje troškovi preduzeća i time poveća njihova efikasnost. S obzirom na to da se troškovi preduzeća mogu predviđati sa većom vjerovatnoćom
nego budući prihodi, orijentacija ka njihovom
smanjenju čini najčešći osnov povećanja efikasnosti. Zbog toga je downsizing preduzeća postao veoma česta forma transformacije
preduzeća, jer je njegov primarni cilj upravo
smanjenje troškova. Downsizing se sprovodi
kako u razvijenim tržišnim zemljama tako i u
zemljama u tranziciji, tako da je i sam postao
globalni fenomen. Širina sprovođenja downsizinga u savremenim uslovima promijenila
je i opšti kontekst zaposlenosti. Savremena
preduzeća proaktivnog i inovativnog tipa svoj
poslovni uspjeh temelje na većoj aktivnosti
istraživanja šansi i mogućnosti u okruženju,
nego na eventualnim mogućim prijetnjama i
opasnostima koje dolaze iz okruženja.
Jačanje društvene i etičke odgovornosti preduzeća čini interakciju preduzeća i okruženja
još komplikovanijom, delikatnijom i teže razumljivijom, pri čemu se od menadžmenta
očekuje da fokusira svoju poslovnu aktivnost
u okvirima prihvaćenih etičkih i standarda od
javnog interesa, uz visoko izbalansirani interes akcionara i preovlađujući interes društva
kao cjeline. Budući da transformacioni proces
Business activity of disinvestment is conditioned with systematic approach. The choice and
implementation of the model is linked exclusively to situational approach. The process starts with
determining the need for disinvestment. Further
step is to identify businesses most suitable for
disinvestment in the context of all needs. Every
business which needs to be disinvested must be
estimated with reference to its market and competitive environment. The first goal of this strategy is direct reduction of the costs through elimination of non-competitive products, including
reduction costs of the salaries of laid off workers.
Strategy of reducing the number of the employees
can lead to negative effects as well, especially for
those that remain in the company because they are
expected to compensate with their work the work
of the former employees which frequently causes
the increase in the intensity and scope of work.
The goal of such orientation is to reduce the
company expanses and thus enhance their efficacy. Since the company costs can be predicted
with more probability than future income, the
orientation towards their reduction is the most
common basis of enhancing efficacy. This is
why the company downsizing has become increasingly common form of the company transformation because its primary goal is exactly
the cost reduction. Downsizing is implemented in developed market countries as well as in
the countries in transition, so that it became a
global phenomenon. The width of the downsizing implementation in modern conditions
has changed the general employment context.
Modern companies of the proactive and innovative type base their business success more on
the research of the opportunities and possibilities in the environment than possible threats
and dangers coming from the environment.
Strengthening of social and ethical responsibility of the companies make the interaction between companies and their environment even
more complicated, more delicate and harder
to understand. Under these circumstances, the
management is expected to focus its business
activity within the frame of the accepted ethical
and public standards, with highly balanced interest of the shareholders and prevailing interest
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL STRATEGIJSKOG MANEVRISANJA KOMPANIJA...
podrazumijeva promjene s ciljem da se otklone negativne poslovne performanse kompanija izazvane krizom, onda se može reći da menadžment kompanije strateškim planiranjem
može minimizirati rizik i neizvjesnot, odnosno smanjiti mogućnost nastajanja kriznog
stanja.
of the society as a whole. Since the transformation process implies executing changes in order
to remove negative business performances of
the companies caused by crisis, then it can be
said that company management with its strategic planning can minimize risk and uncertainty
and reduce possibility of the state of crisis.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Globalni recesioni pritisci su u korelaciji
sa troškovnom efikasnošću kompanije. Teorijske postavke i praktična rješenja u postupku simulacije mogućih pristupa na iznenadne pojave negativnih efekata kod privreda u
recesiji daju odgovor kompaniji koji se ne
može primijeniti kao formula bez prethodne
sistematične i detaljne analize provjere unutrašnjih snaga i slabosti, kao i uticaja mogućih
šansi i opanosti iz okruženja.
Loši poslovni rezultati kompanija u ekonomijama zahvaćenim globalnom krizom nisu
uslovljeni značajanim rastom troškova radne
snage, bez obzira na uticaj globalne recesije,
što isključuje primjenu ad hoc modela downsizinga, prije nego se pristupi poslovnom manevrisanju primjenom situacione analize.
Proces prevazilaženja uticaja negativnih
trendova privredne recesije za poslovne sisteme je proces za koji se ne mogu dati unaprijed
utvrđeni modeli, ali mogu smjernice i principi. Na osnovu postojećih saznanja, evidentno
je da ne postoji jedinstven koncept pristupa
ponašanju u međusobnoj interakciji kompanije i okruženja koji bi važio i mogao se konkretno primjenjivati za sva preduzeća u cilju
najuspješnijeg korištenja šansi i savlađivanja
opasnosti.
U principu, odluka o primjeni strategije
oporavka kompanija treba da se sprovodi u
dvije faze kad menadžment u prvom koraku
pristupa smanjenju troškova sa ciljem da se
revitalizuje učinak kompanije ili da se kompanija spasi od daljeg propadanja. Kad se
prvim pristupom ne ostvare željeni rezultati,
pristupa se drugoj fazi koja se temelji na detaljnoj i sistematičnoj analizi prethodnih ak-
Global recession pressures are in correlation
with efficiency of the company expenditure.
Theoretical postulates and practical solutions in
the simulation process of the possible approaches
towards sudden negative effects in the economies
in recession give answer to the company which
cannot apply as formula without previous systematic and detailed analysis of internal strengths
and weaknesses, as well as influences of possible
opportunities and threats from the environment.
Poor business results of the economies in global crisis are not conditioned by the significant
growth in the work force expanses regardless of
the global recession influences, which exclude
implementation of the ad hoc downsizing model
before it approaches business manoeuvring by
implementation of situational analysis.
The process of overcoming the influences of
negative trends in economy recession for business systems is a process that does not have any
pre-given models, but only certain guidelines
and principles. Based on available knowledge,
it is evident that there is not a unique concept
of behaviour approach in mutual interaction of
the company and environment that would be
valid and applicable for all companies in order
to achieve the most successful use of opportunities and overcome the dangers.
In principle, the decision about implementation of the strategy of the recovery of company should be conducted in two phases. First,
the management reduces the costs in order to
revitalize the company impact or to save the
company from further ruin. When the first
approach proves inefficient in achieving expected outcomes, other phase follows. They
are based on detailed and systematic analysis
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M. Šarčević; T. Spremo: MODEL OF STRATEGIC MANEUVERING OF THE COMPANIES ...
tivnosti na osnovu kojih poslovodstvo donosi
konačnu odluku da se krene u proces restrukturiranja kao radikalniji metod refokusiranja
poslovanja kompanije kako bi se spriječio
daljni pad učinka. Tada uprava razmatra donošenje odluke o restrukturiranju odabirom
najprihvatljivijeg modela (sell off, spin off,
split off), holdingovanje ili alijansiranje. I na
kraju, kad pojedinačni primijenjeni model ne
bude dovoljno efikasan u svom nastojanju da
smanji troškove i restrukturiše svoje poslovanje, kompanija može pribjeći tzv. taktici
downsizinga.
Prije nego što kompanije definišu osnovne
faktore i pravce poslovnog restrukturiranja u
Republici Srpskoj, neophodno je sa svih nivoa stalno pratiti i analizirati određene mjere
i aktivnosti koje se preduzimaju u razvijenijim tržišnim ekonomijama, kao i strateške
odluke kompanija, koje su pokazale dobre
rezultate na prevazilaženju svih negativnosti
prouzrokovane recesijom. Sva ta iskustva i
saznanja su od posebnog značaja za fokusiranje, praćenje i definisanje podsticaja i
pravaca poslovnog restrukturiranja za izbor
efikasnog modela strategijskog manevrisanja kompanija.
of previous activities based on which management makes the final decision about starting the restructuring process as more radical
method of refocusing company business in
order to prevent further impact decline. Then
the management discusses taking the decision on restructuring by choosing the most
acceptable model (sell off, spin off, split off),
holding or alliance. Finally, when individually implemented model proves inefficient in
its endeavour to reduce the costs and restructure its business, the company can resort to so
called downsizing tactics.
Before the companies define the basic factors
and directions of business restructuring in the
Republic of Srpska, the economy of which is still
under the influence of negative effects of crisis, it
is necessary to follow and analyse from all levels certain measures and activities that are being
undertaken in more developed market economies,
as well as strategic decisions in the companies,
that showed good results in overcoming the negativities caused by recession. All of those experiences and knowledge are important for focusing,
following and defining the motives and directions
of business restructuring for choosing the efficient
model of strategic manoeuvring of the companies.
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PREDUZETNIŠTVO I MARKETING - ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND MARKETING
RAZVOJ METODOLOGIJE ZA PRIMJENU BSC METODE
U MALIM I SREDNJIM PREDUZEĆIMA
DEVELOPING METHODOLOGY FOR BSC METHOD IMPLEMENTATION
IN SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES
Mr Boris Valjevac
Bemind a.d. Banja Luka
Mr Ljiljana Sorak
Visoka škola za ekonomiju i informatiku Prijedor
College of Economics and Informatics Prijedor
Prof. dr Miloš Sorak
Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Tehnološki fakultet
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Technology
Pregledni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402010V, UDK 005.21: 330.342.22
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
U radu je razvijena metodologija za primjenu BSC metode u malim i srednjim preduzećima. Ona se prezentuje putem postavljanja
perspektiva, identifikovanja kritičnih faktora
uspjeha i definisanja mjerila. Svrha BSC metode je prevođenje strateškog plana u mjerljive poslovne ciljeve kojima je moguće pratiti
kvalitet poslovanja preduzeća.
Prvi dio rada se odnosi na objašnjenje
pojma i definisanje procesa primjene BSC
metode.
U drugom dijelu prikazan je proces primjene BSC metode na odabranom preduzeću.
The Study develops methodology for BSC
method application in small and medium enterprises. It is presented through establishing
perspectives, identifying critical success factors
and defining measurements. The purpose of BSC
method is to translate strategic plan into measurable business goals through which is possible
to monitor quality of business in the company.
The first phase of this study explained the
concept and definition of the BSC method application process.
The second phase showed the process of BSC
application methods on a selected company.
Ključne riječi: BSC metodologija, strateški
plan, perspektive, kritični faktori, mjerila,
mala i srednja preduzeća
Key words: BSC methodology, strategic plan,
perspectives, critical factors, measurements,
small and medium enterprises
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Potrebu za razvojem metodologije za primjenu BSC metode u malim i srednjim preduzećima nameću promjene u okruženju, koje
se dešavaju takvom brzinom da organizacije
moraju svoje ponašanje permanentno prilagođavati novonastalim promjenama.
Naime, pokazalo se da tradicionalni način
poslovanja, gdje se kao mjerilo uspješnosti
The need for development of methodology
for BSC method application in small and medium enterprises has derived from changes in
environment, which are happening so quickly that companies constantly have to modify
themselves to new conditions.
The conclusion was drawn that traditional
way of doing business, where the balance sheet
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organizacije posmatrao samo završni račun,
ne može u današnje vrijeme (vrijeme globalizacije) dati zadovoljavajuće rezultate. Savremeni način poslovanja traži da se, pored
finansijskih, uvedu i druge performanse i njihovi nosioci u budućnosti, a to su: kupci, unutrašnji poslovni procesi i učenje i razvoj.
Iz navedenih razloga za efikasno i efektivno
upravljanje malim i srednjim preduzećima,
neophodno je razviti metodologiju za primjenu BSC metode. Ona treba da pruži okvir za
transformaciju vizije, misije i strateških ciljeva u mjerljive poslovne ciljeve radi mjerenja performansi malih i srednjih preduzeća u
ključnim poslovnim područjima. Od njih se
očekuje da budu efikasna i efektivna kako
kratkoročno tako i dugoročno.
Mala i srednja preduzeća moraju pokazati
sposobnost da mogu uticati na dešavanja iz
oblasti izrade proizvoda različitog kvaliteta
i kvaniteta, kojim se mora strateški upravljati. To zahtijeva da mala i srednja preduzeća
imaju sistem upravljanja strateškim ciljevima
poslovanja. Zbog toga postoji potreba upravljanja strateškim ciljevima poslovanja, da bi
se u sve složenijem i dinamičnijem okruženju
povećava uloga malih i srednjih preduzeća u
tokovima izrade proizvoda različitog kvaliteta i kvaniteta.
U okviru rada postavljeni su sljedeći neposredni ciljevi: (1) da se na osnovu strateškog
plana postave perspektive poslovanja malih i
srednjih preduzeća, (2) da se za svaku perspektivu definišu kritični faktori uspjeha i (3) da se
za svaki kritični faktor uspjeha definišu mjerila
kojim se postižu željeni reziltati.
would be taken as a measurement of success,
cannot in today’s world (in the time of globalization) give satisfactory results. Modern way
of doing business is asking for financial, but
also other types of performances and their future carriers, which are: buyers, internal business processes and learning and development.
Because of the fore mentioned reasons, in order to manage small and medium enterprises in
efficient and effective way, it is necessary to develop methodology for BSC method application.
It should give a framework for the transformation of vision, mission and strategic goals into
measurable business goals, in order to measure
performance of small and medium enterprises in
key business areas. It is expected of them to be
efficient and effective in both short and long run.
Small and medium enterprises must show ability to influence activities in the field of product
production which are of different quality and
quantity, and which must be strategically managed. This means that small and medium enterprises must have a system for managing strategic
business goals. Because of that there is a need for
management of strategic business goals, with the
purpose of increasing the role of SME in today’s
more and more complex and dynamic environment, which they have in production of goods of
different quality and quantity.
The paper sets the following direct objectives: (1) to set SME business perspectives
based on strategic plan, (2) to define critical success factors for each perspective, and
(3) to define for each critical success factor
measurements which will help achieve desired goals.
BSC (BALANCED SCORECARD)
METODOLOGIJA
BSC (BALANCED SCORECARD)
METHODOLOGY
Pojam i definisanje BSC–а
BSC concept and definition
Da bi organizacija mogla da ocijeni kako
sprovodi svoju strategiju, ona mora periodično ocjenjivati svoju efikasnost i efektivnost.
Pri tom organizacija mora da utvrdi koji metod je pogodan za ocjenjivanje efekata spro-
In order to evaluate the way the strategy is carried out, a company must periodically perform
evaluation of its efficiency and effectiveness.
At the same time company must determine
which method is appropriate for evaluation of
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vedene strategije. Razloge za to treba tražiti
u činjenici što se pokazalo da organizacije
koje ne koriste pogodne metode za ocjenjivanje efikasnosti i efektivnosti (metode koje su
zastarjele ili nisu pogodne za njen oblik privređivanja), neće dobiti rezultate koji će dati
pravu sliku stanja u organizaciji.
Metode mjerenja performansi, koje su pogodne za organizacije koje se bave proizvodnjom, moraju uključivati: (1) ocjenjivanje
kvaliteta proizvoda, (2) sposobnosti kadrova i
proizvodnih kapaciteta, (3) stepen korišćenja
proizvodnih kapaciteta i kadrova i (4) stepen
korištenja pogodnih metoda i tehnika u procesima rada, (5) stepen implementacije integisanih sistema menadžmenta i slično.
Savremene metode mjerenja performansi
moraju podržati fokusiranje menadžmenta
ka kupcu i okolini. Zbog različitih pogleda
na razvoj mjerenja i ocjenjivanja uspješnosti
poslovanja, razvilo se više različitih modela za mjerenje uspješnosti. Jedan od modela
koji se najviše koristi za mjerenje uspješnosti
procesne organizacije je Balanced Scorecard
(BSC). To je vrlo racionalan i rentabilan metod, jer prati optimalan broj ključnih karakteristika čiji je izbor proistekao iz vizije, misije
i strategije preduzeća.
Istraživanja su pokazala da je BSC, u odnosu na druge metode, najviše usmjeren ka
rezultatima i najbliži korisniku, a, pored
toga lako se povezuje sa drugim alatima za
mjerenje uspješnosti koji se već koriste u
preduzeću.
Pojam Uravnoteženi sistem pokazatelja (The
Balanced Scorecard) je uveden 1992. godine od
strane Roberta Kaplana i Davida Nortona u časopisu Harvard Business Review. Njihova knjiga
“The Balanced Scorecard” postala je poslovna biblija mnogih uspješnih kompanija širom svijeta.
Godine 1996. Kaplan i Norton saželi su
koncept i učenje u svojoj knjizi „The Balanced Scorecard“. Iako je na početku osmišljen
kao sistem mjerenja, kasnije je prerastao u
sistem strategijskog upravljanja za one organizacije koje ga u potpunosti koriste. U godinama koje su slijedile, Balanced Scorecard je
strategy effectiveness. Reasons for this are the
fact that it was shown that companies which
do not employ appropriate methods for evaluation of effectiveness and efficiency (outdated
methods or not suitable for particular industry)
will not get the results which will show the true
picture of the state of the company.
Methods for measuring performance, which
are appropriate for companies involved in production, must include: (1) Evaluation of product quality, (2) Capabilities of employees and
production capacity, (3) Degree of utilization of
production capacity and employees, (4) degree of
utilization of appropriate methods and techniques
in the process of work, (5) degree of implementation of integrated management systems, etc.
Modern methods of measuring performance
must support the management focus towards the
customer and the environment. Due to the different perspectives on the development of measuring
and assessing business performance, many different models for measuring success have been developed. One model that is most frequently used
to measure the success of the process is the Balanced Scorecard (BSC). It’s a very rational and
cost-effective method, because it monitors optimal number of key features which choice resulted
from the company’s vision, mission and strategy.
Studies have shown that compared to other
methods, BSC is mostly focused toward the
results and is closest to the user, and in addition it is easy to connect with other performance measurement tools that are already in
use in the company.
The concept of Balanced Scorecard was introduced in 1992 by Robert Kaplan and David
Norton in Harvard Business Review. Their
book “The Balanced Scorecard” has become
the business bible of many successful companies around the world.
In 1996 Kaplan and Norton summarized
the concept and learning in their book “The
Balanced Scorecard”. Although initially conceived as a system of measurement, it later
grew into a system of strategic management
for the companies which implemented it completely. In the years that followed, the Bal-
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kao sredstvo menadžmenta primijenjen u velikom broju preduzeća širom svijeta. Usljed
široke prihvaćenosti i djelotvornosti Harvard
Business Reviev ga je nedavno proglasio kao
jednu od 75 najuticajnijih ideja XX vijeka
(Niven, 2007).
Todorović (2009) BSC definiše kao model
pažljivo odabranog skupa pokazatelja i mjera
izvedenih iz strategije organizacije pomoću
kojeg se planiraju i usmjeravaju aktivnosti organizacije iz različitih perspektiva na osnovu
povezivanja i uravnoteženja najvažnijih faktora uspješnosti. Svrha BSC (Heleta, 2008)
je da pomogne u komunikacijama prilikom
primjene strategije organizacije. Ona je most
između strategije i sposobnosti zaposlenih za
kontinualna poboljšanja.
anced Scorecard was used as a management
tool in many companies around the world.
Due to the wide acceptance and effectiveness,
Harvard Business Review recently named it
as one of the 75 most influential ideas of the
twentieth century (Niven, 2007).
Todorović (2009) defines BSC model as carefully selected set of indicators and measurements
derived from the strategy of the organization,
used for planning and directing organizational
activities from different perspectives based on
linking and balancing the most important factors of success. The purpose of BSC (Heleta,
2008) is to assist in communication during the
application of the organization’s strategy. It is
a bridge between the strategy and the ability of
employees to continually improve.
Proces primjene BSC–а
BSC application process
Prilikom uspostavljanja uravnoteženog sistema pokazatelja, neophodno je obratiti pažnju
na određene “ključne” faktore koji dovode do
ostvarivanja i izvršavanja predviđene misije,
ciljeva i strategije organizacije. Kao najbitniji
faktori ističu se: (1) definisanje strategije i (2)
njeno prihvatanje i razumijevanje na svim nivoima organizacije (Domanović, 2010).
To je veoma bitno, jer se smatra da veliki broj zaposlenih ne razumije postavljenu
strategiju i zbog toga ona nije povezana sa
ciljem odjeljenja, grupe i pojedinca, dok
postoji i manji broj onih koji ne vjeruju u
mogućnost njenog ostvarenja. Zbog toga je
neophodno da menadžeri organizacija održavaju sastanke na kojima daju dodatna pojašnjenja zaposlenima.
Menadžeri promjene postižu tako da za period od dvije do pet godina odrede ciljeve za
pokazatelje u sistemu, čije dostizanje će preoblikovati preduzeće.
Proces primjene uravnoteženog sistema
pokazatelja u organizaciji najčešće se odvija
kroz sljedeća četiri koraka:
1. Prvi korak prilikom uvođenja uravnoteženog sistema pokazatelja jeste definisanje
strateškog plana organizacije koji se sa-
When establishing a Balanced scorecard it
is necessary to pay attention to certain “key”
factors that lead to the realization and execution of planned missions, objectives and
strategies of the organization. The most important factors are: (1) strategy definition and
(2) strategy acceptance and understanding on
all organizational levels (Domanović, 2010).
This is very important because it is believed
that a large number of employees do not understand the strategy, and therefore it is not connected with the goal of departments, groups and
individuals, and there is also a small number of
those who do not believe in the possibility of its
realization. It is therefore essential that managers of organizations hold meetings where they
will give additional explanations to employees.
Managers achieve changes by determining
objectives for parameters within the system,
which achievement will transform the company, for the period of 2 to 5 year.
The Balanced Scorecard application process in organizations is most often done
through the following four steps:
1. The first step in the introduction of a Balanced Scorecard is to define a strategic
plan for the organization, which consists
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stoji od vizije, misije, ciljeva i strategijskih ciljeva. Nakon toga zaposlene treba
upoznati sa strateškim planom na taj način
što će se on javno publikovati, a menadžeri su dužni da ga objasne zaposlenim.
2. Drugi korak se odnosi na postavljanje
perspektiva. Riječ „perspektiva“ dolazi od latinske riječi perspektus, što znači
„gledati kroz“ ili „vidjeti jasno“.
Da bi bila djelotvorna, svaka strategija
mora sadržavati, uz opise finansijskih
aspiracija, tržišta kojima se pruža usluga, procese koji se moraju savladati,
kao i ljude koji će stalno i vješto voditi
društvo ka uspjehu. Stoga se uspješnost
organizacije mjeri sa četiri ujednačena
pravca i to: finansijiski pravac, pravac
poslovanja sa strankama, pravac unutrašnjih procesa i pravac učenja i rasta
(Kaplan & Norton, 2006).
3. Treći korak u uspostavljanju uravnoteženog sistema pokazatelja jeste identifikacija kritičnih faktora uspjeha. Njih je
neophodno postaviti za svaku perspektivu. Kritični faktori uspjeha se određuju
na osnovu uzročno-posljedičnog odnosa
između strateškog plana, odabrane strategije, strategijskih aktivnosti i trenutnog
stanja organizacije.
Za faktore uspjeha se smatra da su ostvareni kada se njhove karakteristike nalaze u
postavljenim granicama metrika. Neki od
faktora koji mogu najznačajnije uticati na
postizanje željenih rezultata su: jasna očekivanja i ciljevi, izbor metode primjeren
nivou razvoja poslovnog sistema, saglasnost zainteresovanih strana za primjenu,
osigurana podrška izvršnog menadžmenta
i određivanje odgovornog koordinatora za
primjenu metode (Vuković, 2007).
4. Četvrti korak u uspostavljanju uravnoteženog sistema pokazatelja je postavljanje
mjerila. Pri tom treba voditi računa da se
definiše barem jedna mjerna karakteristika,
ili mjerilo za svaki kritični faktor uspjeha.
Da bi se razvila adekvatna mjerila performansi, u obzir treba uzeti željeni rezultat i
of the vision, mission, goals and strategic
objectives. After that employees should
be introduced to strategic plan by declaring it publicly, and management is in obligation to explain it to employees.
2. The second step refers to setting perspective. The word “perspective” comes from
the Latin word perspektus, meaning “see
through” or “to see clearly”.
To be effective, every strategy must include description of financial aspirations,
targeted market, processes which need to
be overcome, and staff that will constantly
and capably lead company toward success.
Because of that, success of the organization is measured in 4 uniform directions,
which are: financial direction, direction of
doing business with clients, direction of internal processes and direction of learning
and growth (Kaplan & Norton, 2006).
3. The third step in establishing a balanced
scorecard system is to identify the critical success factors. They need to be established for each perspective. Critical
success factors are determined based on a
cause and effect relationship between the
strategic plan, chosen strategy, strategic
actions and the current state of the organization.
It is believed that success factors are achieved
when their characteristics are within defined
metric range. Some factors which can be most
influential for achieving desired results are:
Clear expectations and goals, Clear expectations and goals, Choice of method adequate to
level of business system development, Consent of parties involved for implementation,
Secured support of general management and
Appointing responsible coordinator for implementation of the method (Vuković, 2007).
4. The forth step in establishing a balanced
scorecard system is setting up measurements. It is important to define at least one
measurable characteristic or measure for
each critical success factor.
In order to develop adequate measure of
performance, it is important to consider de103
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procese kojim se rezultati postižu. Željeni
rezultati su praktično mjere koje proizilaze
iz perspektive eksternih i internih korisnika, dok su procesi mjere iz perspektive nosilaca procesa.
sired result and processes which lead to the result. Desired results are practically measures
derived from the perspective of external and
internal users, while processes are measured
from the perspective of the process carrier.
PROCES PRIMJENE RAZVIJENE
METODOLOGIJE U ODABRANOM
PREDUZEĆU
APPLICATION PROCESS OF
DEVELOPED METHODOLOGY IN A
SELECTED COMPANY
Osnovni podaci o preduzeću „Bemind“
Banja Luka
Comapany „Bemind“ Banja Luka – Basic
information
Preduzeće „Bemind“ Banja Luka je osnovano 1970. godine, kao rezultat udruživanja
nekoliko manjih zanatskih firmi iz sektora
proizvodno-uslužnog zanatstva. Ono je, od
osnivanja do danas, poslovalo u raznim oblicima organizovanja, u skladu sa zakonskim
promjenama. „Bemind“ prati evropske i
svjetske trendove razvoja proizvoda iz svoje
oblasti, koristi savremenu tehnološku opremu, prilagođava organizacionu strukturu potrebama tržišta, školuje potrebne kadrove, a
trenutno ima oko sedamdest zaposlenih.
Osnovna djelatnost „Bemindа“ obuhvata tri
oblasti privrede i to: (1) elektro sektor, (2)
mašinski sektor i (3) građevinski sektor.
Company Bemind Banja Luka was founded in 1970 by merger of several smaller
craft-workshops from manufacturing and servicing sector. Since its foundation till nowadays, company employed various organizational structures, in line with legislation.
Bemind follows European and world trends
in product development in their area, uses
modern technological equipment, adapts to
the organizational structure toward market
needs, educates staff needed, and currently
has about seventy employees.
Bemind main activity lies in 3 economy areas, which are: (1) electro sector, (2) mechanical sector, and (3) construction sector.
Postupak primjene BSC metode
The process of applying BSC method
Suština primjene BSC metode je prepoznavanje očekivanih mjera performansi organizacije koje ona treba postići u budućnosti. U takvim
uslovima BSC metoda u velikoj mjeri pomaže
menadžerima tako što im omogućava da se pravovremeno pripreme za ono što ih očekuje u budućnosti. To su mjjerljivi ciljevi na osnovu kojih
menadžeri ne samo da treba da usmjeravaju svoje
aktivnosti nego i da znaju rezultate na osnovu kojih će se mjeriti njihova uspješnost.
Upravo na bazi analize i procjene svih
aspekata poslovanja preduzeća u datom
okruženju, definisan je proces primjene
BSC metode koji se prezentuje putem postavljanja perspektiva, identifikovanja kritičnih faktora uspjeha, definisanja mjerila
The essence of the BSC method application
is to identify expected performance measures
which it should achieve in the future. Under
such conditions, BSC method greatly helps
managers by enabling them to timely prepare
for what awaits them in the future. Those are
measurable goals, based on which managers
not only need to focus their activities, but they
also need to know the results on which their
success will be measured.
Based on the analysis and evaluation of all
aspects of business operations in a given environment, Bemind management has defined
BSC method application process, which is
presented by set perspective, identification
of critical success factors, defining measure-
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i izrade izvještaja o ostvarenim ciljevima
kvaliteta (Valjevac, 2013).
ments and preparation of reports on achieved
quality objectives (Valjevac, 2013).
Postavljanje perspektiva
Setting perspective
Perspektive postavlja svaka organizacija
sama za sebe. Smatra se da bi svaka organizacija trebalo da, pored četiri osnovne perspektive, u zavisnosti od svojih specifičnih
situacija, odabere još dodatnih perspektiva.
Bitno je da perspektive budu tako odabrane
da se obezbijedi uravnoteženost kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih, subjektivnih i objektivnih,
finansijskih i nefinansijskih, istorijskih i mjerila budućeg uspjeha.
S obzirom na to da se BSC prvi put primjenjuje u preduzeću „Bemind“, odabrane su četiri
osnovne perspektive: 1. Finansijska, 2. Kupci i
korisnici, 3. Unutrašnji procesi i 4. Učenje i rast.
Every organization is setting perspective
for itself. It is believed that every organization should compare in addition to 4 basic
perspectives, depending of its specific situations, some additional perspectives. It is important that perspectives are chosen in such
a way to provide balanced quantitative and
qualitative, subjective and objective, financial and non-financial, historical and future
measures of success.
Since this was the first time Bemind decided to
apply BSC, the following four basic perspectives
were chosen: 1. Financial, 2. Buyers and users,
3. Internal processes, 4. Learning and growth 1.
Identifikovanje kritičnih faktora uspjeha
Identifying critical success factors
Identifikaciju kritičnih faktora uspjeha u
preduzeću Bemind vršena je zajedno sa menadžerskim timom preduzeća putem diskusije uspostavljene vizije i procjene koji faktori
mogu najznačajnije uticati na postizanje strateških ciljeva. Ograničeni broj najznačajnijih
kritičnih faktora uspjeha utvrđivan je za svaki
strateški pravac.
Lista kritičnih faktora uspjeha nadalje služi za uspostavljanje mjerila uspjeha, te adekvatnog informacionog sistema koji će dati
bitne informacije za pravovremeno donošenje
kompetentnih upravljačkih odluka.
Identification of critical success factors in Bemind company was conducted together with the
company’s management team through discussion
about established vision and evaluation which
factors can influence achievement of strategic
goals in the most important way. Limited number of the most significant critical success factors
was determined for each strategic direction.
Critical success factor list also serves for
establishing measure of success, and adequate
information system which will give important
information for timely and competent management decision making.
Definisanje mjerila
Defining measurements
Organizacija treba da definiše mjerila za
svaki kritični faktor uspjeha. Mjerila treba da
ukažu na rezultate koji se žele postići po pojedinim kritičnim faktorima uspjeha. U naprijed
navedenom smislu, zajedno sa menadžerskim
timom preduzeća „Bemind“, putem diskusije
strateškog plana i strateških ciljeva, definisana su mjerila za kritične faktore uspjeha.
Organization should define measures for
each critical success factor. Measures should
point to results which need to be achieved per
each critical success factor. In forementioned
sense, measures for critical success factors
were defined through discussion about strategic plan and stragetic goals, together with
management team of Bemind company.
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B. Valjevac; Lj. Sorak; M. Sorak: RAZVOJ METODOLOGIJE ZA PRIMJENU BSC METODE...
Izrada izvještaja o ostvarenim ciljevima
kvaliteta
Creating reports about achieved quality
goals
Svakih pola godine u preduzeću se sačinjavaju izvještaji o ostvarenju planiranih ciljeva. Na osnovu njih preduzeće praktično stiče
uvid koliko se ostvaruju željeni rezultati.
Every six months company creates reports
about achievement of planned goals. Through
them company can practically get the insite
how many desired results were achieved.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Iz rečenog proizilazi da je veoma bitno da
organizacije razviju metodologiju prevođenja
strateškog plana u mjerljive ciljeve. Taj proces se najčešće prezentuje putem postavljanja
perspektiva, identifikovanja kritičnih faktora
uspjeha, definisanja mjerila i izrade izvještaja
o ostvarenim ciljevima kvaliteta. Na taj način preduzeća povećavaju svoju sposobnost
da prate da li se ostvaruje projektovana efikasnost i efektivnost organizacije. Pri tom se
mogu izvući sljedeći zaključci.
1. Razvojem metodologije za transformaciju
strategije organizacije u mjerljive poslovne ciljeve, moguće je pravilno usmjeriti
proces poboljšanja bitnih karakteristika
proizvoda i procesa u cilju njihovog poboljšanja.
2. Postavljanjem perspektiva treba da se
obezbijedi uravnoteženost kvantitativnih
i kvalitativnih, subjektivnih i objektivnih,
finansijskih i nefinansijskih, istorijskih i
mjerila budućeg uspjeha.
3. Kritični faktori uspjeha ukazuju na uzročno posljedične odnose između strateškog
plana i trenutnog stanja organizacije.
4. Mjerne karakteristike ili mjerila su željeni
rezultati kojim se praktično određuje validnost poslovne uspješnosti organizacije.
From the above said it follows that it is
very important for organizations to develop
a methodology of translating strategic plan
into measurable goals. This process is usually
presented through setting perspective, identifying critical success factors, defining standards and creatinga reports on achieved quality
goals. In this way, companies are increasing
their ability to monitor whether they achieve
projected efficiency and effectiveness. One
can draw the following conclusions:
1. By developing methodology for transforming an organization’s strategy into
measurable business objectives it is possible to correctly direct the process of improving important product characteristics
and processes.
2. Establishing perspective should provide
a balance of quantitative and qualitative,
subjective and objective, financial and
non-financial, historical and future measure of success.
3. Critical success factors point to a causal
relationship between the strategic plan
and the current state of the organization.
4. Measuring characteristics or criteria are desired results which practically determine validity of the organization’s business success.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Bemind. (n.d.). Poslovnik kvaliteta. Banja
Luka: Bemind.
Domanović, V. (2010). Balanced scorecard Mogućnosti i efekti primjene. Kragujevac:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Heleta, M. (2008). Menadžment kvaliteta.
Bemind. (n.d.). 9.
Quality
rules
of
procedure. Banja Luka: Bemind.
Domanović, V. (2010). Balanced Scorecard the possibilities and effects of application.
Kragujevac: Ekonomski fakultet.
Heleta, M. (2008). Quality management.
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Beograd: Univerzitet Singidunum.
Kaplan, S. R. & Norton, P. D. (1996). The
Balanced Scorcard. The President and
Fellows of Harvard Collage.
Niven, R. P. (2007). Balanced scorecard
-Korak po korak (drugo izdanje). Zagreb:
Poslovni dnevnik, Masmedia.
Stoiljković, N. (n.d.) Uravnoteženi sistem
pokazatelja. Preuzeto 18. janura 2014.
sa sajta http://www.skladistenje.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/06/BSC.pdf
Todorović, Z. (2009). Upravljanje kvalitetom.
Ekonomski fakultet Banja Luka.
Valjevac, B. (2013). Uticaj BSC (Balanced
Scorecard) metodologije na efikasnost
poslovanja malih i srednjih preduzeća.
Neobjavljena
magistarska
teza,
Univerzitet za poslovni inženjering i
menadžment Banja Luka.
Vuković, M. (2007). Uvođenje novih metoda
u sistem upravljanja - Kritični faktori
uspjeha. International Journal Total
Quality Management & Excellence, Vol.
35, No. 1–2.
Beograd: Univerzitet Singidunum.
Kaplan, S. R. & Norton, P. D. (1996). The
Balanced Scorcard. The President and
Fellows of Harvard Collage.
Niven, R. P. (2007). Balanced Scorecard Step by Step (second edition). Zagreb:
Poslovni dnevnik, Masmedia.
Stoiljković, N. (n.d.) A balanced system of
indicators. Retrived Janurary 18, 2014.
from http://www.skladistenje.com/wpcontent/uploads/2013/06/BSC.pdf
Todorović, Z. (2009). Quality management.
Ekonomski fakultet Banja Luka.
Valjevac, B. (2013). The impact of BSC
(Balanced Scorecard) methodology on
business efficiency of small and mediumsized enterprises. Unpublished master’s
thesis, Univerzitet za poslovni inženjering
i menadžment Banja Luka.
Vuković, M. (2007). Introduction of new
methods into management system Critical success factors . International
Journal Total Quality Management &
Excellence, Vol. 35, No. 1–2.
107
108
PREDUZETNIČKA EKONOMIJA - ENTREPRENEURIAL ECONOMICS
MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
MARKETING IN THE MODERN BUSINESS ENVIRONEMENT
Mlađan Stanić, dipl. ek.
Centro-Šped d.o.o. Teslić
Stručni rad
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402005S, UDK 004.738.5:658.8
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
U ovom radu ćemo vidjeti na koji način su
moderne informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije (u daljem tekstu: „IKT“) uticale na
moderni marketing, a to se, uglavnom, odnosi na pojavu interneta kao jednog globalnog
rastućeg fenomena. Prvo ćemo se upoznati
sa pojmom IKT, te njihovom ulogom u modernom poslovanju a zatim, konkretnije, približiti funkcionisanje modernog marketinga,
dajući na kraju i par korisnih smjernica za
uspješan moderni web marketing.
In this paper we will discuss all the ways
modern informational and communication
technologies (further on: „IKT“) effect
modern marketing, mostly referencing internet, as a growing global phenomenon.
First we will introduce the very term of
IKT, following it’s role in modern business
and lastly closely explain how modern
marketing works, followed by a few useful
directions for successful modern web marketing.
Ključne riječi: IKT, internet, e-marketing,
web prezentacija, smjernice.
Key words: IKT, internet, e-marketing, web
presentations, directions.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Marketing u savremenim uslovima poslovanja se neminovno vezuje za pojam i nastanak informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija. Kao što su IKT vremenom sve više
ulazile u sve pore društveno-privrednog života, tako su obuhvatile i oblast marketinga.
U tekstu koji slijedi ćemo vidjeti način na
koji je moderni marketing povezan sa IKT
i trendovima koje su one donijele u svakodnevnom reklamiranju.
Vidjećemo da su forme i načini realizacije
modernog marketinga brojni, kao i da se oni
iz dana u dan mijenjaju i usavršavaju.
Takođe ćemo ukratko spoznati složenost
funkcionisanja modernog marketinga, kao i
neke značajne razlike između njega i tradicionalnog markatinga.
Marketing in modern business is undoubtedly connected to the notion and development of informational and communicational
technologies. As IKT advanced into every
aspect of socio-economic life, over the time,
they enveloped the field of marketing, too.
In paper that follows we will see all the ways
modern marketing is connected to IKT and
trends that they brought to everyday advertisement.
We will show numerous forms and ways to
make modern marketing happen and prove that
they are changing and improving on a daily basis.
We will also briefly acknowledge the complexity by which modern marketing functions, followed by some of the most important differences
between modern and traditional marketing.
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M. Stanić: MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
KONCEPT INFORMACIONOKOMUNIKACIONIH TEHNOLOGIJA
(IKT) I NJIHOVA ULOGA U MODERNOM
POSLOVANJU
INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY
CONCEPT AND IT’S ROLE IN MODERN
BUSINESS
Za sam početak dajemo jedan citat koji dovoljno govori o ulozi i značaju IKT, kao i o
značaju informacija koje IKT generišu u savremenom poslovnom svijetu.
Ko vlada informacijama, vlada i svijetom.
Danas u svijetu je najmoćnija informaciono-komunikaciona tehnologija (Hood &
Margetts, 1999).
Dalje, najbolje da približimo pojam IKT tako
što ćemo ga pojasniti putem definicije i njegove
opšte pojmovne odrednice. Prema tome, šta su
zapravo IKT? Savremene IKT su tehnologije
prikupljana, obrade i prenosa informacija i znanja. One ukidaju granice poslovanje i otvaraju
neslućene mogućnosti u stvaranju poslovnih
relacija, izvođenje, kontrolu i upravljnje poslovnim procesima i operacijama na efikasniji i
brži način. Putem IKT se uspostavljaju i održavaju odnosi sa klijentima (bitno za marketing),
upravlja složenim logističkim sistemima, brzo
izvode i najsloženije poslovne analize i efikasno izvršavaju transakcioni procesi. Ovi trendovi se dešavaju i u javnom sektoru kao što je
obrazovanje, zdravstvo, javna uprava i sl. Primjena IKT je uzela danas toliko maha da se
rad u mnogim sferama društveno-privrednog
života ne može ni zamisliti bez njih. Konkretni primjeri primjene su mnogobrojni: od umjetnosti i edukacije, preko upravljanja saobraćajem i protivgradne odbrane, zatim kuhinja
i velikih uslužnih organizacija do upravljanja
integrisanim vojnim sistemima.
Računari se smatraju najepohalnijim otkrićem od vremena pronalaska točka. Pri tome ne
treba napominjati da oni predstavljaju samo jedan segment modernih IKT. Pad njihove cijene
uslovio je da ih mnogo ljudi danas koristi kako
u privatne tako i u poslovne svrhe, te danas pojam pismenosti ne podrazmjeva više osnovnu
pismenost, nego upravo računarsku pismenost.
Da bismo slikovito približili ekonomski
značaj i veličinu industrije IKT, navodimo
We begin with a quote that indicates just
how important IKT are and the importance of
the informations that IKT generates in modern business world.
He who has the information, has the power.
Information and communication technology
is the most powerful thing in the world (Hood
& Margetts, 1999).
Further on, easiest way to explain IKT is
to clarify it’s definition and basic terms that
define it. In fact, what are IKT’s? Modern
IKT’s incorporate gathering, processing and
transmitting of technologies and knowledge.
They cancel out the boundaries and open vast
opportunities to create business relations, performances, control and management in business processes and operations in a faster and
more effective way. By using IKT we build
and maintain relations with clients (which
is important to marketing), manage complex
logistic systems, quickly calculate even the
most complex business analysis and effectively execute transactions. These trends are a part
of public sector such as education, health care,
public management, etc. IKT’s are so deeply
rooted into every aspect of socio–economical
life that it’s hard to imagine life without it.
There are many examples of benefits that come
from it, ranging from art to education, traffic
management, protection against hail, work in
the kitchen and huge service providing organizations to military systems management.
Computers are considered the most important invention since the discovery of wheel.
There’s no need to point out that they represent just one fragment of modern. IKT’s Significant drop in price made them affordable
to many people who use them for personal as
well as business purpose, changing the meaning of „ basic literacy“ to „computer literacy“
To closely demonstrate the economic value
and magnitude of IKT industries, we offer
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M. Stanić: MARKETING IN THE MODERN BUSINESS ENVIRONEMENT
sljedeće podatke. Počev od 1990. godine
proizvodnja vezana za IKT zauzima prvo
mjesto u svijetu sa prihodom od preko 9 milijardi USD. Prvo mjesto im niko ne može
ugroziti, prihod im se iz godine u godinu
povećava a broj zaposlenih u IT sektoru razvijenih zemalja je u stalnom porastu (Radivojević, 2006, str. 10).
Izdvaja se nekoliko pozitivnih karakteristika
IKT. Karakteriše ih prije svega visoka naučnoistraživačka i obrazovna intenzivnost te, sa stanovišta ekonomike preduzeća, mala potrošnja sirovina i repromaterijala po jedinici prizvoda, kao i
mali utrošak energije u proizvodnji i eksploataciji. Na kraju, jedna od pozitvnih, ali ne i manje bitnih karakteristika, je zanemarljiv stepen zagađenja životne okoline. Neki od modernih trendova
koje generišu savremene IKT su: umreženo računarstvo, mobilna trgovima (obavljanje e-trgovine
preko bežičnih aparata, zasnovano na bežičnim
vezama), integrisano kućno računarstvo (integracija TV-a, telefona, sistema za obezbjeđenje i sl.,
na način da se njima upravlja sa jednog mjesta
- jednog informacionog čvora), intranet, ekstranet, optičke mreže, e-uprava itd.
O značaju IT sektora u svijetu, dovoljno govori i činjenica da se u razvoj ovog sektora
aktivno uključuju vlade, javne službe i institucije.
Kakva je situacija kod nas u vezi sa IKT i
njihovom primjenom u društveno-poslovnom
životu? Ona još uvijek nije zadovoljavajuća,
iako se postepeno nastoji uhvatiti priključak sa
razvijenim zemljama Zapada, što, prije svega,
iziskuje veća materijalna ulaganja u ovoj oblasti, kao i obrazovanje odgovarajućih kadrova.
few data. Since the beginning of year 1990
IKT related manufacture take place number
one when it comes to income, grossing over 9
billion dollars. Their number one place is not
in jeopardy due to the fact that their incomes
grow each year and the number of employees
in IT sector increases in countries in development (Radivojević, 2006, str. 10).
Few positive characteristics stand out
among others. Mostly it’s high scientific, research and educational intensity. From business -economy point of view it’s noticeably
small consumption of resources and materials
per product as well as neglectable energy usage in manufacturing and exploitation. Lastly, one of the positive but not less important
characteristic is neglectable level of environment pollution. Some of modern trends being
generated by IKT’s are: networking, mobile
trade (making e-trade over wireless adapters
based on wireless connections) integrated
house computes (used to control TV, phone
and security systems from one point, one information knot), internet, extranet, optic networks, e-management etc.
How important IT sector can be determined
by pointing out that actives participants in
development of this sector are governments,
public services and institutions.
Where do we stand when it comes to IKT
and it’s application in socio-economical life?
He situation is not satisfying even though we
stride to gain footing with developing countries of the west due to the fact that it requires
significant monetary investments as well as
educating the right employees.
FUNKCIONISANJE MODERNOG
MARKETINGA
MODERN MARKETING
FUNCTIONING
Tehnološki napredak kreirao je modernu
privredu u kojoj su uobičajene marketing strategije dobile novi dizajn. Marketing stručnajci moraju da kreiraju nove strategije i prakse
prilagođene savremenim uslovima poslovanja. Internet kao medij postaje sve značajniji,
a broj prezentacija na njemu rapidno i perma-
Technological progress created modern
economy where common marketing strategies get new design. Marketing experts are
forced to create new strategies and practices
and adapt to conditions that define modern
business. As media, internet is gaining on importance and the number of internet presenta111
M. Stanić: MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
nentno raste. U prilog tome govori i podatak
da se godišnje na svjetsku mrežu postavi 5,4
milijardi gigabajta podataka (Vasiljev & Trifunović, 2012).
Dakle, na globalnoj mreži stvara se, izmađu
ostalog, prava „šuma“ multimedijalnih prezantacija u kojoj je sve teže izboriti povoljnu marketing poziciju u odnosu na konkurenciju. Upravo zato prisustvo na internetu mora biti planski
osmišljeno od stručnih timova iz različitih oblasti.
Moderni marketing, uz primjenu IKT, mogli
bismo da svedemo na pojmove e-marketinga,
odnosno ON LINE marketinga. On se definiše kao skup svih aktivnosti koje za cilj imaju
prodaju proizvoda i usluga potrošačima upotrebom interneta i ON LINE servisa, koristeći
ON LINE alate i usluge na način koji je konzistentan sa cjelokupnim marketing aktivnostima preduzeća (Stankić & Krsmanović, 2007).
Po definiciji Tamare Uroš (2004), e-marketing obuhvata sve ON LINE i elektronski zasnovane aktivnosti, bazirane na mrežnoj tehnologiji, koje koordiniraju istraživanje tržišta,
pomažu razvoj proizvoda, zatim razvoj strategija i taktika ubjeđivanja potrošača da kupuju,
obezbjeđuju ON LINE distribuciju, održavaju
bazu podataka o kupcima i sakupljaju od njih
povratne informacije.
Koncept marketinga u savremenim uslovima poslovanja su dobro izložili prof. dr Rade
Stankić i prof. dr Branko Krsmanović sa Fakulteta poslovne ekonomije u Bijeljini - u
svojoj knjizi Elektronsko poslovanje, što se
naročito odnosi na poređenje e-marketinga i
tradicionalnog marketinga (Stankić & Krsmanović, 2007).
U poređenju sa tradicionalnim marketingom, prodaja proizvoda i usluga putem interneta ima najviše karakterstika direktnog
marketinga, što znači da prodaja putem interneta podrazumijeva ličnu komunikaciju,
kojom se nastoje prodati proizvodi i usluge
sa velike distance tako što se informacije potrebne za kupovno odlučivanje dostavljaju
direktno do potencijalnih kupaca. Pri tome
su efekti ovakvih aktivnosti jednostavno i
preciznio mjerljivi.
112
tions is rapidly and constantly growing. Proof
to the testament is a fact that 5.4 billion gigabytes of data is published each year (Vasiljev
& Trifunović, 2012).
We can conclude that, among other things,
global network created a „forest“ of multimedia presentations that makes it difficult to
secure position that’s better than the competitions. Hence, teams specialized in several different areas should plan out internet presence.
By implementing IKT modern marketing could be defined as e-marketing aka
ON LINE marketing. It’s defined as a collection of activities with goal to sell the
product and services to targeted consumers by using internet and ON LINE tools
and services in a way that coexists with
entire marketing activity(Stankić & Krsmanović, 2007).
According to another definition by Tamara
Uroš (2004), e-marketing incorporates all ON
LINE and electronic activities that are based
on network technologies. They coordinate
market research, help develop products, develop strategies and tactics of persuasion that
will get consumers to buy the product, provide ON LINE distribution, keep customer
data-base and gather feedback. .
Concept of marketing in conditions of modern business was explained remarkably well
by Prof. Dr Rade Stankić i Prof. Dr Branko
Krsmanović from Faculty of Business Economics from Bijeljina and in his book Electronic Business he addressed the comparison
between e-marketing and traditional marketing (Stankić & Krsmanović, 2007).
Compared to traditional marketing, products and services trade over the internet, has
more similarities to direct marketing ergo
trade over the internet entails personal communication with goal to sell products and
services from great distances by delivering
all the necessary information to make the
purchase directly to it’s potential consumers.
At the same time it’s easy to measure the effects of such activities in simple and precise
ways.
M. Stanić: MARKETING IN THE MODERN BUSINESS ENVIRONEMENT
Dok je direktni marketing uz upotrebu tradicionalnih metoda (pošta, telefon i sl.) najskuplji način obraćanja ciljnom auditorijumu,
za opciju e-marketinga vrijedi upravo obrnuto, pa je to njegova velika prednost.
Najveća prednost upotrebe interneta sa aspekta marketinga je interaktivni dvosmjerni
proces komunikacije. E-marketing podržava efikasnu komunikaciju i nakon kupovine/
prodaje proizvoda/usluga i to, prije svega,
aktivnostima korisničke podrške, te na taj
način formira dugoročan i prijateljski odnos
sa pojednim kupcem. Naziva se još i „1:1
marketing“. Komunikacija je bitan element
u izgradnji dobrog i prepoznatljivog imidža
preduzeća i zbog toga se ne smije zapostaviti.
Korisnik kome se odgovori na neko pitanje
mail-om, stiče utisak da se neko brine upravo
o njemu i njegovim potrebama.
Još jedna bitna prednost u odnosu na tradicionalni
marketing je ta što se na internetu web stranice, kao
marketinški alat preduzeća, uvijek „osvježavaju“
(ili bi bar tako trebalo da bude), te naša ciljana grupa potrošača dobija permanento aktuelne i svježe
informacije, bitne za njegovo kupovno odlučivanje.
Ko su najčeši korisnici ove moderne vrste
marketinga i kakvi proizvodi su najpogodniji?
To je najčešće kategorija korisnika interneta
sa natprosječnim obrazovanjem i materijalnim
primanjima, što dalje implicira da je isplativo
nuđenje proizvoda i usluga koji zanimaju takvu ciljnu grupu. Ovaj vid marketinga je posebno pogodan za plasiranje proizvoda i usluga intelektualne svojine, te proizvoda koje ne
treba vidjeti, opipati ili probati prije kupovine.
Takođe su pogodni proizvodi u srednjem nivou
cijena, te proizvodi čija se cijena brzo mijenja.
While direct marketing that consist of traditional methods (mail, phone, etc.) is the
most expensive way of addressing potential
market, e-marketing is a total opposite of that,
which makes it it’s huge advantage.
From marketing point of view biggest difference and at the same time advantage that
comes from using internet is two-way communicational process. E-marketing ensures
effective communication even after the purchase, mostly through customer support by
which it forms friendly, long term relation to
the customer.. It’s also called „1:1“marketing.
Communication is extremely important if we
want to built good and recognizable image
and therefore , it must not be neglected. Consumer who gets his questions answered by
mail, will get the impression that someone is
taking care about him and his needs.
Another advantage compared to traditional
marketing is the fact that online, web pages
as a marketing tool are being constantly refreshed ( or at least they should be) so our
target audience constantly gets fresh informations that will help along with their decisions.
Who uses this modern version or marketing
and what kind of products is it most suitable for?
Most commonly, it’s a category of internet users with above average education and
incomes hence it’s reasonable to offer products and services to such audience. This form
of marketing is particularly effective when it
comes to intellectual property or products that
don’t need to be seen, touched or tasted before
the purchase. It’s also effective for products
with middle range prices or products who’s
price changes quickly.
SMJERNICE ZA USPJEŠAN MODERNI
MARKETING
DIRECTIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL
MODERN MARKETING
Web prezentacije treba da pružaju detaljne podatke o preduzeću i o njegovim proizvodima, odnosno
uslugama koje nudi, te da omogućuju posjetiocima
postavljanje pitanja, zatim kupovanje, učenje o
tome kako se upotrebljavaju neki proizvodi, te korisničku podršku nakon kupovine proizvoda. Sve
Web presentations should offer detailed data
about the company and it’s products or services, they should allow visitors to ask question,
purchase, learn how to use certain products,
offer consumer support after the purchase.
All of this should be available to the cus113
M. Stanić: MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
ovo treba da korisnicima bude omogućeno da obave iz svoje udobne fotelje, u toplini svoga doma.
Korisnicima je potrebno omogućiti mutimedijalnu
hipertekstualnu prezentaciju informacija, što im
omogućava brzo i jednostavno pregledanje potrebnih informacija u obliku teksta, slike, zvuka i videa.
Za uspješno predstavljanje na internetu bitan je dizajn stranice zato što nam dizajn prvi
upada u oko, te nas dalje privlači ili odbija od
daljeg istraživanja po stranici. Ne možemo sa
sigurnošću tvrditi koji dizajn stranice je optimalan i koji će joj dati „pravi“ izgled. On
zavisi, prije svega, od prirode posla kojim se
kompanija bavi, te od proizvoda i u sluga koje
nudi na svojoj prezentaciji.
Dalje, posjetilac ne smije previše da čeka
na prenos i učitavanje stranice, što je vezano
za tehničke aspekte izrade te stranice. Osim
toga, bitno je omogućiti laku i jednostavnu
navigaciju, te je poželjno da prezentacija sadrži FAQ listu (odgovori na najčešće postavljena pitanja).
Treba imati u vidu da prezentacija postaje
osnovni faktor prepoznatljivosti kompanije,
njenih proizvoda i usluga. Informacioni sadržaj je ključ uspješnosti e-marketinga, što
znači da potencijalnim kupcima treba ponuditi ono što žele i ne zamarati ih nepotrebnim
sadržajima. Prezentacija treba da bude sažeta,
znači informativna, ali koncizna. Takođe, treba biti dinamična. Nije dovoljno da sajt samo
postavimo, nego ga treba što više promovisati
tako što će se prijaviti što većem broju pretraživača. Internet podrazumijeva promjene kao
novi obrazac poslovnog ponašanja, a kompanija mora da se njima prilagođava. Kad god
je moguće, u marketing aktivnostima treba
sarađivati sa komplementarnim akterima na
internetu.
Viktor Švab je 60-tih godina prošlog vijeka
formulisao pravila koja treba da ispuni jedna
reklama, a to su: (1) reklama mora da privuče pažnju; (2) reklama mora da ljudima ukaže na prednost koju ima proizvod u odnosu
na druge proizvode; (3) zatim, dokaz da je ta
prednost realna; (4) ubijediti ljude da shvate
prednost; (5) pozvati na akciju.
114
tomers from the comfort of their homes and
their chairs. Consumers should be presented
with multimedia hypertext information that
will allow them to simply and quickly scroll
through necessary information via text, pictures, sound or video.
Page design is important for successful presentation online primarily because it’s the first
thing that „catches the eye“ and further draws
us or pushes us away from exploring the page.
We can’t claim with certainty which design
will give the optimal results or the ’right look“.
It mostly depends on the nature of the business
as well as the products and services that the
company offers in it’s presentation.
Further on, the visitor shouldn’t have to wait
too long for the page to load and transfer information, which is an important technical aspect when
it comes to creating the page. Besides, it’s important to provide with easy and simple navigation
and it’s desirable that presentation has FAQ ( answers to most commonly asked questions).
We must keep in mind that presentation becomes the factor by which you recognize the
company, it’s products and services.Informations are the key to successful e-marketing
which means that potential consumers should
be provided with all they want to know and
not bother them with unnecessary information. Presentations should be compendious,
filled with information but concise. It should
also be dynamic. It’s not enough to just put up
a site but we need to promote it by registering to as many browsers as you can. Internet
is all about change as a new pattern of business behavior and the company has to adjust
to it accordingly. Whenever it’s an option you
should cooperate with other participants in
marketing activities.
Back in the 60’s Victor Schwab created rules that all advertising should abide:
(1) Advertisement should draw attention;
(2) Advertisement should show people all the
advantages certain product has compared to
other products; (3) Proof that said advantage
is real; (4) Make people see that advantage;
(5) Call on action.
M. Stanić: MARKETING IN THE MODERN BUSINESS ENVIRONEMENT
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Marketing u savremenim uslovima poslovanja
se zasniva na primjeni IKT i odlikuje se rastućom
potrebom za stručnjacima novog profila i znanja.
Današnje razvijene zemlje svijeta su prešle iz faze
industrijskog u informaciono društvo. Pod njim se
podrazumijeva društvo čije se postojanje i razvoj
bazira na znanju i informacijama. U takvom društvu IKT učestvuju sa čak 90% od ukupno korištenih visokih tehnologija (Radivojević, 2006).
Primjena interneta je omogućila znatno
smanjenje troškova marketinga, njegov globalni domet te poboljšanje komunikacije sa
kupcima. Na neki način, sve na internetu je
marketing. Stvoreni su novi modeli e-marketinga, te u vezi s tim, i nove mogućnosti
istraživanja tržišta, a poboljšana je podrška
odlučivanja kupaca.
Elektronska sredstva se integrišu u tradicionalne marketing metode, omogućujući bolje
istraživanje trendova u okruženju, lakši pristup
tržištima, održavanje komunikacije sa sadašnjim
i potencijalnim kupcima i gotovo trenutno dobijanje povratnih informacija o proizvodima i uslugama. Marketing stručnjaci imaju mogućnost
da sakupljaju i analiziraju informacije o korisnicima, jer e-transakcije ostavljaju trag koji može
dalje da se koristi za generisanje profila potencijalnih kupaca. Na osnovu toga kompanije mogu
da ponude kastomizirane proizvode (prilagođene
preferencama individualnog potrošača).
Napretkom IKT dolazi do promjene u načinu
poslovanja i proširenja koncepcije marketinga.
Internet radiklano mijenja marketing. Predviđa
se da će se uskoro uspostaviti sistem direktnih
elektronskih veza između preduzeća i njihovih kupaca i dobavljača, te će se, putem takvih
veza, odvijati sva kupovina i prodaja. Kompanije kao što su Microsoft i Oracle trenutno skoro u potpunosti funkcionišu kao elektronska
preduzeća, u kojima se gotovo sve, od računa
do ugovora, završava i šalje elektronskim putem (Vasiljev & Trifunović, 2012).
Modern marketing is based on implementation of IKT followed by growing need for
experts in new fields. Developed countries
have made the transition from industrial to informational society. It alludes to such society
who’s existence and development is based on
knowledge and information. In such society
IKT take 90% of high technology usage (Radivojević, 2006).
Internet implementation made it possible to decrease the costs of marketing, its’
global range and it improved communication
with consumers. In a way, everything online
is marketing. New models of e-marketing
were created followed by new opportunities
for market research and improved customer
support.
Electronic recourses are being integrated
into traditional marketing methods, providing better research of trends, easier access
to market, keeping in touch with current
and potential customers and almost instant
feedback about products and services. Marketing experts have the opportunity to analyze information about consumers cause
e-transactions leave that that can be use
to generate a potential consumer profiles.
Based on that companies can offer customized products (modulated preferences of individual consumer)
IKT progress brought a change in the ways
we make business and spread marketing
concept. Interment radically changed marketing. It’s assumed that soon we will have
direct electronic links between companies
and their customer and suppliers and that
all transactions will be handled that way.
Companies like Microsoft and Oracle work
almost completely as electronic companies
where almost everything, from bills to contracts, is being sent out electronically (Vasiljev & Trifunović, 2012).
115
M. Stanić: MARKETING U SAVREMENIM USLOVIMA POSLOVANJA
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Aleksić-Marić, V. (2008). Elektronsko
poslovanje (prvo izdanje). Ekonomski
fakultet Banja Luka.
Hoode, C. & Margetts. H. (1999).
Informatization and public administration
trends, igniting, feulling or dampening.
London: National institute of social work
paper.
Radivojević, M. (2006). Elektronsko
poslovanje. Univerzitet za poslovne
studije Banja Luka.
Stankić, R, & Krsmanović, B. (2007).
Elektronsko poslovanje. Fakultet spoljne
trgovine Bijeljina.
Uroš, T. (2004). Elektronsko poslovanje.
Beogradska poslovna škola Beograd.
Vasiljev, S. & Trifunović Lj. (2012).
Marketing. Ekonomski fakultet u Brčkom.
Aleksić-Marić, V. (2008). Electronic business
(first edition). Ekonomski fakultet Banja
Luka.
Hoode, C. & Margetts. H. (1999).
Informatization and public administration
trends, igniting, feulling or dampening.
London: National institute of social work
paper.
Radivojević, M. (2006). Electronic business.
Univerzitet za poslovne studije Banja
Luka.
Stankić, R, & Krsmanović, B. (2007).
Electronic business. Fakultet spoljne
trgovine Bijeljina.
Uroš, T. (2004).
Electronic business.
Beogradska poslovna škola Beograd.
Vasiljev, S. & Trifunović Lj. (2012).
Marketing. Ekonomski fakultet u Brčkom.
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REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJA I REFORME - REINDUSTRIALIZATION AND REFORM
NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE
U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
NEW TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATION AND DESIGN
IN FUNCTION OF REINDUSTRIALIZATION
Valentina Vukmirović, dipl. ing.
Prof. dr Nikola Vukmirović
Univerzitet u Banjoj Luci, Ekonomski fakultet u Banjoj Luci
University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Economics Banja Luka
Pregledni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402011V, UDK 338.45.01:005.21
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Velika industrijska preduzeća treba da se restrukturiraju, uvedu nove tehnologije i redizajniraju organizacionu i proizvodnu strukturu da
bi bila samoodrživa i konkurentna. Metodologija koja je za to najpogodnija je sistem inovativnih grupa i preduzetničkih timova za uvođenje u
proces proizvodnje novih sirovina, tehnologija,
grafičkog inženjeringa i dizajna za proizvode
i ambalažu kao i drugih oblika nematerijalne
imovine. Prioritet primjene reinženjeringa i
restrukturiranja imaju preduzeća za razvoj kooperacije sa velikim brojem malih radnointenzivnih preduzeća čija se proizvodnja zasniva na
novim znanjima. Mala i srednja preduzeća koja
su dominantna u veličinskoj strukturi privrede
zapošljavaju novu obrazovanu, kreativnu radnu
snagu i najviše doprinose sprečavanju “odliva
mozgova”, povećanju izvoza i razvoju manje
razvijenih područja. Informatičke tehnologije
imaju ključni značaj za unapređenje proizvodnih procesa, a grafičke tehnologije za dizajn i
vizuelni identitet proizvoda.U radu su dati konkretni rezultati istraživanja iz ova dva sektora.
Iz sektora informatičkih tehnologija istraživanja
su vezana za Telekom Srpske, a iz grafičkih tehnologija istraživanja su vezana za Grafotisak.
Large industrial companies need to be
restructured, new technologies need to be
introduced and organizational and production structure needs to be redesigned,
in order to be sustainable and competitive.
The priority of implementing reengineering and restructuring have cooperation
development companies with large number
of small work-intensive companies which
base their production on new technologies. Small and medium enterprises that
are dominant in size structure of the economy, employ new educated, creative work
force and contribute the most in preventing
“brain drain”, export increase and development of less developed areas. Information technologies are crucial for the improvement of production processes, and on
the other hand, graphic technologies are
crucial for design and visual identity of the
product. This paper will provide specific
results from two sectors. In the sector of
information technology research is related to Telekom Srpske, and in the sector of
graphics technology the research is related
to Grafotisak.
Ključne riječi: reindustrijalizacija, informatička
tehnologija, 3D dizajn, grafički inženjering,
životni ciklus, tehnološke inovacije, poslovne
komunikacije.
Key words: reindustrialization, information
technology, 3D design, graphic engineering,
life cycle, technological innovation, business
communication.
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UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Kriza koja je 2008. godine globalno zahvatila cijeli svijet, prisilila je preduzeća i cijele
ekonomije da traže inovativna rješenja za nastale ekonomske, tehnološke, organizacione
i druge probleme. Razvijene zemlje su počele da pronalaze izlaz iz krize i našle su ga u
uvođenju inovacija, novih tehnologija i novih
znanja u cilju restrukturiranja i revitalizacije
velikih i srednjih preduzeća. Ova preduzeća
su strateški nosioci razvoja malih preduzeća
kroz sistem kooperacije, odnosno autsorsinga. Stoga su razvijene države dale podsticaje
i pokrenule proces reindustrijalizacije preko
preduzeća koja su dobijene podsticaje uložila u istraživanja, nove tehnologije, inovacije,
kvalitet, softverske programe, dizajn i vizuelni identitet proizvoda, kao i druge procese i
aktivnosti koje pripadaju sferi nematerijalne
imovine. Tako su nastale i neke potpuno nove
tehnologije i proizvodne aktivnosti kao što je
3D dizajniranje, koje su unijele pravu revoluciju u industrijsku proizvodnju.
Potrebna je najprije revitalizacija preduzeća
koja još uvijek imaju proizvodnju i slične proizvodne sadržaje, zatim obnova „posustalih“
preduzeća kroz „braunfild“ investicije. To se
opet prioritetno odnosi na one prerađivačke
kapacitete koji imaju izobilje domaćih sirovina
(poljoprivredni proizvodi, voda, drvo), a čiji se
proizvodi danas u najvećoj mjeri uvoze.
Finansijska sredstva za obnovu, restrukturiranje i revitalizaciju postojećih industrijskih
kapaciteta, kao i podizanje novih mogu se
pribaviti uslovljavanjem da strani investitori
koji ulažu gotovo isključivo u trgovinu budu
obavezni da proporcionalni iznos ulažu u domaću proizvodnju i u svojim prodajnim kapacitetima prodaju pretežno domaće proizvode.
Dakle, podsticajima treba dovesti investitore prvenstveno u proizvodnju (primjer Fiata
u Republici Srbiji) i u podsticanju investicija
sarađivati sa lokalnim samoupravama. Za to
treba osposobiti mlade preduzetne kadrove
putem posebnih specijalističkih studija i neformalnih oblika edukacije za preduzetničko-menadžerske vještine.
The 2008 crisis, which has seized the whole
world globally, forced companies and entire economies to look for innovative solutions for arising
economic, technological, organizational and other problems. Developed countries have begun to
seek for the way out of crisis and they found it in
implementing innovation, new technologies and
new knowledge with the aim of restructuring and
revitalization of small and medium enterprises.
These enterprises are strategic holders of small
enterprises development through the system of cooperation, i.e. outsourcing. Therefore, developed
countries gave incentives and initiated the process of reindustrialization through the enterprises which invested gained incentives in research,
new technologies, innovation, quality, software,
design and visual identity of the product, as well
as other processes and activities which belong to
the sphere of non-material assets. That is the manner in which some completely new technologies
appeared, such as 3D technology, which brought
complete revolution in the industrial production.
Primarly, revitalization of the companies which
still have certain production, i.e. production contents is needed, and afterwards renewal of companies which have fallen behind, through „brownfield“
investments. The priority are those processing programs that have an abundance of local raw materials (agricultural products, water, wood) and which
products are largely imported now.
Financial means for reconstruction, restructuring and revitalization of existing industrial
capacities, as well as establishment of new
ones, can be obtained by conditioning foreign
investors who invest almoust exclusively in
retail, to invest certain percentage in domestic productionand sell in their retail capacities
proportional part of domestic products.
Therefore, incentives should attract investors
primarily to invest in production (the example
of Fiat in Serbia) and to colaborate with local government in forming investment funds.
Young entrepreneurial cadres should be empowered to perform these activities through
specialist studies and informal ways of education for entrepreneurial and managerial skills.
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Transfer znanja i poslovnih vještina treba obezbijediti uz uključivanje u proces edukacije iskusnih
preduzetnika koji su pokazali liderske sposobnosti i
poslovne vještine kako na domaćem tako i na spoljnom globalnom tržištu (Petković, 2006, str. 222).
Jasno je da nije moguće oživjeti mnoga
propala velika industrijska preduzeća, ali
je, uz nove tehnologije, inovativne proizvodne procese, unapređenje dizajna,
brendiranje, primjenu promotivnih strategija, podsticanje i zaštitu intelektualne
svojine, uvođenje savremene multimedijalne komunikacije sa kupcima i potrošačima, moguće obnoviti, restrukturirati i revitalizovati postojeće industrije i pokrenuti
neke nove zasnovane na novim znanjima
i informatičkim tehnologijama kao što
su industrije 3D dizajna i slično (Amor,
2002, str. 121).
Transfer of knowledge should be provided
with the involvement of experienced entrepreneurs who have demonstrated leadership skills
and business skills at the local, domestic and
foreign, global market (Petković, 2006, p. 222).
It is obvious that it is not possible to revitalize numerous ruined industrial enterprises, but with new
technologies, innovative production processes, improvement of design, branding, implementation
promotional strategies, promotion and protection
of intellectual property, the introduction of modern
multimedia communications with customers and
consumers, it is possible to renew, restructure and
revitalize existing and start up of a new industrial capacity. Especially with new entrepreneurial ventures
that are encouraged, the attention should be payed on:
new knowledge, young educated people and the latest
technology (especially new information technologies
such as 3D printing etc.) (Amor, 2002, p.121).
KONCEPTUALNI OKVIR
REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE ZASNOVAN
NA TEORIJI ŽIVOTNOG CIKLUSA
PREDUZEĆA
CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OF
REINDUSTRILIZATION BASED ON
THEORY OF LIFE CYCLE OF THE
COMPANY
Savremena analiza upravljanja razvojem
preduzeća prema I. Adižes-u, (Adizes, 2002,
str. 192-197), zasniva se na deset faza životnog ciklusa u kojima se nalaze organizacije u
svom razvoju.
Među tim fazama, kao predmet našeg istraživanja, posebnu važnost imaju faze u kojima je potrebno obavljati restrukturiranja i revitalizaciju uvođenjem inovacija i preduzetničkog intelidžensa. Ove
faze se mogu grafički prezentovati na način kako
je to dato u tabeli 1. (Adizes, 2002, str. 192-197).
Uvođenje novih tehnologija, inovacija i
ulaganje u ostale oblike nematerijalne imovine koji najviše dopinose revitalizaciji i jačanju konkurentske sposobnosti preduzeća,
najefikasnije je u top fazi životnog ciklusa
preduzeća.
To u pravilu rade konkurentski najsposobnija
preduzeća kada povećavaju svoje učešće na globalnom tržištu. Međutim, moguće je i u ostale
dvije faze pokrenuti proces revitalizacije mjerama
koje su prethodno opisane, ali je potrebno uložiti
Analysing the model of contemporary management development of companies, according to I. Adizes (Adizes, 2002, p. 192-197),
there are ten phases of organisation’s development life cycle.
Among those phases, special importance
have phases in which is necessary to perform
the activities of restructuring and revitalization
implementig innovation and entrepreneurial intelligence. These phases can be presented graphically (see Table 1) (Adizes 2002, p. 192-197).
Implementing new technologies, innovation and investing in other forms of non-material assets which contribute the most to the
revitalization and strengthening of competitive advantage of a company, are the most
efficient in top phases of life cycle.
In general it is done by the most capable enterprises in the global market. Although, it is possible
to start the process during the other two phases by
implementing means which are already described,
but it is necessary to invest much more effort with
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V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
mnogo više napora i troškova, a ostvareni rezultati
će biti mnogo skromniji u odnosu na top fazu.
Sam proces uvođenja novih tehnologija i
inovacija ne može se odvijati stihijski, već
treba primijeniti u literaturi poznate modele
preduzetničkog intelidžensa i IGPT sistema
(inovativne grupe i preduzetnički timovi).
Posebno je važna uloga liderskog i kreativnog kadra u takvim organizacijama, što je
pokazalo i naše istraživanje analizom slučaja dva preduzeća iz BiH („Telekom Srpske“
i „Grafotisak“).
bigger expenses and achieved results will be much
more modest when compared to the Top phase.
The process of implementig new technologies itself, can not be performed spontaneously, but with applying one of the familiar models of entrepreneurial intelligence and IGPT
system (innovative groups and entrepreneurial teams). The role of leadership and creative
cadre in that kind of organization, as shown in
this paper by the case study of two entreprises
from Bosnia and Herzegovina (Telekom Srpske and Grafotisak), is especially important.
Tabela 1
Ključne faze životnog ciklusa preduzeća
Table 1
Key phases of enterprise life cycle
Faze životnog ciklusa iskazane simbolima
P, A E, I
Karakteristike
[Phases of life cycle expressed with symbols
[Characteristics]
P, A, E, I]
Top forma (Premier) PAEI
Optimalno stanje organizacije; odlikuje se
[Top form (Premier) PAEI]
fleksibilnošću, upravljanju promjenama i
predviđanju rezultata; pozitivan rezultat je
postignut integracijom ključnih razvojnih
faktora.
[Optimal condition of the organization; characterized by flexibility, change management
and forecasting results; positive result is
achieved by integrating the key development
factor.]
Stabilnost (Stable) PaeI
Organizacija nedovoljno misli na budućnost;
[Stability (Stable) PaeI]
osnivači osjećaju da su otkrili trajni uspjeh;
ljudi se osjećaju dominantno.
[Organization does not pay enough attention
on the future; founders feel that they have
achieved permanent success; people feel
dominant.]
Aristokratia (Aristocracy) pAeI
Postoje samo pravila, procedure i sačuvani
[Aristocracy pAeI]
kadrovi; nema novih ideja niti osoba koje bi
ih sprovodile; postoji kodeks ponašanja i dobra integracija između zaposlenih.
There are only rules, procedures and personnel preserved; no new ideas or people who get
them implemented; here is a code of conduct
and good integration between employees.
A - administracija; P - proizvodnja, E - preduzetništvo;
I - integracija
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A - administration; P - produtcion, E - entrepreneurship;
I - integration
V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATION AND DESIGN IN FUNCTION...
ULOGA NOVIH ZNANJA U
RESTRUKTURIRANJU POSTOJEĆIH I
FORMIRANJU NOVIH PREDUZEĆA
THE ROLE OF NEW KONWLEDGE
IN RESTRUCTURING EXISTING AND
FORMING NEW ENTREPRISES
U proteklim decenijama glavni pokretači
razvoja u tradicionalnoj industriji bile su velike korporacije i masovna proizvodnja proizvoda koji nisu imali problema u pronalaženju kupaca, a osnovni poslovni cilj im je bio
povećanje opsega proizvodnje (Audretsch &
Theurik, 2004, str. 143-166). U današnjim
uslovima koje karakteriše višak ponude u
odnosu na potražnju, povećanje proizvodnje
usmjereno je na povećanje količina informacija i znanja, sa zadatkom povećanja efikasnosti te izrade finalnog proizvoda sa većom dodatnom vrijednošću. Najviše dodatne
vrijednosti u današnjoj proizvodnji proizlaze
upravo iz znanja, a ne iz materijala.
Globalna ekonomija sve više poprima odlike
informacione ekonomije znanja, napuštajući
obrasce industrijske ekonomije dominantne
posljednjih decenija, a „kao suprotnost materijalnoj imovini, usluge i povezana nematerijalna imovina sada čine najveći dio BDP-a u
većini ekonomija, a usluge se više temelje na
znanju nego na materijalnome“ (Fleisher &
Bensoussan, 2003, str. 7). Često postoji veliki jaz između informacija koje su potrebne
menadžmentu za donošenje odluka i bezbroj
podataka koji se svakodnevno prikupljaju u
preduzeću. Radi premoštavanja tog jaza, kompanije obavezno treba da investiraju u razvoj
sistema poslovne inteligencije kako bi podatke
i informacije pretvorile u korisno znanje, te na
taj način povećale konkurentsku prednost (Vukmirović, 2012, str. 241). U cilju što uspješnijeg korišćenja znanja u praksi, potrebno je
skrenuti pažnju na neke ključne odrednice za
podjelu znanja s obzirom na njegov izvor, načine primjene i izlazne rezultate. Najčešće se i u
literaturi i u praksi koriste: (1) eksplicitno znanje (explicit knowledge); (2) implicitno znanje
(implicit knowledge) i (3) poslovna inteligencija (business inteligence). Ova podjela posebno dolazi do izražaja u primjeni metodologije
preduzetničkog intelidžensa (entrepreneurial
inteligence) za analiziranje poslovnih događaja
In past decades main development drivers
in the industrial economy were large corporations and mass production of products which
had no difficulties in finding customers, and
their basic aim was to increase the production volume (Audretsch & Theurik, 2004, p.
143-166). In today’s conditions, which are
caracterized by the excess supply relative to
demand, the increase in production is aimed
at increasing the amount of information and
knowledge, with a mission to increase efficiency and production of the final products
with higher added value. Most added value in
production today originates just from knowledge, not from the material.
Global economy is increasingly taking on
the characteristics of the information economy
of knowledge, abandoning the dominant forms
of industrial economies in recent decades, and
“as opposed to tangible property, services and
related intangible assets now make up the largest part of GDP in most economies, while services are mostly based on knoledge, rather than
material“ (Fleisher & Bensoussan, 2003, p. 7).
There is often a big gap between the information which are necessary for management in
decision-making and numerous information
which are collected in the company on a daily
basis. In order to overcome that gap, companies
must invest in deveopment of business intelligence system in order to turn unprocessed data
in useful knowledge and maintain competitive
advantage (Vukmirović, 2012, p. 241). In order
to ensure successful use of knowledge in practice, it is necessary to draw attention to some of
the key determinants for knowledge classification, with regard to its source, method of administration and outputs. Most frequently, both in
literature and in practice are: (1) explicit knowledge; (2) implicit knowledge and (3) business
inteligence. This classification is particularly
evident in the implementation of the methodology of entrepreneurial intelligence for analyzing business events in previous period and the
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u prethodnom periodu i planiranje očekivanih
kretanja i rezultata u narednom periodu (Dedijer, 1991, str. 102). Analitičko-planska funkcija
izuzetno je važna za efikasno korišćenje novih
tehnologija, inovacija, 3D dizajniranja i drugih
oblika nematerijalne imovine u proizvodnji.
Posebno postaje važno 3D dizajniranje koje
predstavlja proces kreiranja objekata koristeći
mašine koje slažu materijal sloj po sloj u tri dimenzije dok se ne dobije željeni predmet koji
je prethodno kreiran na računaru. Riječ je o revolucionarnom dizajniranju trodimenzionalnih
objekata prilagođavanjem i unapređivanjem in
džekt koncepta čiji je tvorac Čarls Hal, kasniji
osnivač kompanije 3d Sistems koji je uveo u
praksu stereolitografiju, kao jedan od načina
pravljenja 3D modela iz slike na kompjuteru.
Od tada pa do danas 3D dizajn nalazi primjenu
u različitim granama industrije poput automobilske, avijacije, mašinske, medicinske, industrije nakita i za vlastite potrebe ljudi. Zanimljivo je spomenuti da je 1999. godine proizveden
prvi ljudski organ, mokraćna bešika, pomoću
3D dizajniranja, a 2002. i prvi bubreg. Ovakvi
organi se prave trodimenzionalnom štampom i
potom se ugrađuju u čovjeka. Zatim 2008. godine je proizveden prvi 3D printer koji je u stanju da sam reprodukuje većinu svojih dijelova.
Do danas su ostali još samo neki elektronski
dijelovi da se posebno dodaju, ali će, vjerovatno, i taj problem biti uskoro riješen i 3D printer
će moći sam sebe da proizvede (Vukmirović,
2012, str. 211).
expected developments and results in the future
(Dedijer, 1991, p. 102). Analysis and planning
function, which is performed according to the
metodology of entrepreneurial intelligence, is
very important for efficient usage of new technologies, such as the technology of 3D printing.
3D design technology is the process of creating
objects using machines which arrange material layer by layer in three dimensions until desired item, previously created on the computer,
is not done. It is a revolutionary technology of
producing three dimensional objects by adjusting and improving inkjet concept, created by
Charles Hall, founder of 3D Systems company,
who introduced stereolithography in practice, as
one of the manners of creating 3D model from a
computer picture. From than on, 3D design has
found its use in different branches of industry
such as automotive industry, aviation, mechanical engineering, medical industry, jewelry manufacture, as well as people’s personal needs. It
is interesting to mention that in 1999., using 3D
design, the first human organ, the bladder, was
produced, and in 2002. the first kidney. These
organs are madewith three-dimensional printing, and then incorporated into a human’s body.
In 2008 the first 3D printer with the capability of
reproducing most of its parts was produced. Up
until now, only few electronic components need
be added separately, but the problem will probably be resolved soon and the 3D printer will
be able moći sam sebe da proizvede. perform
self-production (Vukmirović, 2012, p. 211).
STUDIJA SLUČAJA
CASE STUDIES
Studija slučaja „Telekom Srpske“
„Telekom Srpske“ case study
Telekom Srpske a.d. Banja Luka, osnovan
je 1996. godine, djelatnost komunikacijske
usluge, sa osnovnim proizvodima: fiksna
telefonija, mobilna telefonija, broadband,
internet usluge i T/Network usluge. Telekom Srpske od decembra 2006. godine je u
većinskom vlasništvu Telekoma Srbije (65
odsto dionica). Telekom Srpske spada u velika preduzeća po broju zaposlenih, vrijednosti aktive i ostvarenom prihodu. Godine
Telekom Srpske, stock company from
Banja Luka, was founded in 1996, as a company that provides communication services
with basic products such as: landline network, mobile telephony, broadband, internet services and T/Network services. Telekom Srpske belongs to the range of large
companies, bearing in mind the number of
employees, the value of assets and generated revenue. In 2008, accomplished busi-
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2008. ostvareni poslovni prihodi iznosili su
468,3 miliona KM, a 2012. godine 470,8
miliona KM. Broj zaposlenih je 2008. godine iznosio 2.525, a 2012 godine 2.195. Iz
ovih podataka je vidljivo da je preduzeće
uspjelo da od početka krize zadrži svoj tržišni udio i čak poveća poslovne prihode
zahvaljujući uvođenju novih tehnologija,
inovacija i novog dizajna proizvoda. U periodu 1996. do 2012. godine preduzeće je
provelo veći broj aktivnosti na uvođenju
novih proizvoda, unapređenju dizajna i drugih karakteristika proizvoda/usluga. Samo
u 2011. godini uvedeno je šest paketa novih
usluga od kojih posebno treba spomenuti:
online kupovinu, web portal, web shop,
mobilna plaćanja računa i drugo (Republički zavod za statistiku, 2013). U cilju prevazilaženja krize i održivog razvoja posebna
pažnja posvećena je službama i sektorima
preduzeća koji se bave istraživanjem, razvojem tehnologije, dizajniranjem proizvoda i marketingom.
Za pružanje usluga mobilne telefonije u
Republici Srpskoj na nivou preduzeća je
specijalizovana radna jedinica za mobilnu
telefoniju M:tel, a za internet servise specijalizovana je radna jedinica TEOL.
Telekomunikacioni sistemi se danas suočavaju sa velikom konkurencijom, zahtjevima koje postavlja internet, mogućnostima
širokopojasnih servisa (telekonferencije,
videokonferencije, video po zahtjevu, itd.) i
stalno rastućim zahtjevima korisnika. Telekomunikacioni operatori moraju da prilagode svoje poslovne modele prema tim trendovima održavajući istovremeno standarde
kvaliteta, pouzdanosti i operativne uspješnosti kojiim omogućavaju da se takmiče sa
konkurencijom na globalnom tržištu.
Praćenjem evolucije telekomunikacione
industrije, sve više se uočava da se mnoge
telekomunikacione kompanije udaljavaju
od poslovnog modela zasnovanog na strategiji razvoja infrastrukture (proizvoda) usluga i prihvataju poslovni model zasnovan na
strategiji usmjerenoj na korisničke usluge.
Telekomunikacione kompanije koje su iz-
ness income was 468,3 million KM, and
in 2012 470,8 million KM. The number of
employees in 2008. was 2.525 and in 2012,
2.195. These data implies that the company managed that, from the begginig of the
crisis maintains its market share and even
increase business revenue due to the introduction of new technology, innovation and
new product design. In the period between
1996 and 2012, the company has conducted numerous activities on introducing new
products, improvement of design and other
characteristics/products. In 2011 only, six
packages of new services have been introduced of which special mention should be
made about online shopping, web portal,
web shop, bill payment via mobile phones
etc (Republic institute for statistics, 2013).
In order to overcome the crisis and achieve
sustainable development, special attention
was paid to the offies and sectors, which are
engaged in the research, development and
marketing.
Mobile telephony services in Republic of
Srpska are provided by specialized work
unit for mobile telephony M:tel, while internet services are provided by specialized
work unit TEOL.
Telecommunication systems today face a
tough competition, the requirements of the
internet, the possibilities of broadband services (teleconferencing, videoconferencing, video on demand, etc.) and constantly
growing demands of users. Telecommunication operators have to adjust their business models to these trends, while maintaining standards of quality, reliability and
operational performance that enable them
to keep pace with the competition in the
global market.
By tracking the evolution of the telecommunications industry, it is evident that
many telecommunication companies are
moving away from a business model based
on the strategy of infrastructure development of services and accepted business
model which is based on a strategy aimed
at customer service. Telecommunication
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V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
gubile povlašćeni monopolski status i ušle
u novu eru takmičenja sa konkurencijom,
uvidjele su da je upravljanje odnosima sa
kupcima (CRM) ključni faktor koji diferencira najbolje u odnosu na ostale. Izbor strategije koja je usmjerena ka korisniku usluga
zavisi od raspoloživih savremenih tehnologija koje omogućavaju brzo i efikasno razumijevanje njegovih potreba i ponašanja,
što omogućava konkurentnost kompanije.
Da bi se što potpunije upoznali korisnici,
u Telekomu Srpske prikupljaju dvojake informacije: o njihovom ponašanju i o njihovim prilikama. Svaki kontakt sa korisnikom
treba da bude iskorišćen za prikupljanje
informacija. Razvojem korisnički orijentisanog poslovanja i potpuno razumijevanje
korisnika je jedini put opstanka na tržištu.
Postoji mnogo problema sa kojima se susreću telekomunikacione kompanije. Odlazak,
odnosno zadržavanje postojećih klijenata je
najveći problem u poslovanju telekomunikacionih kompanija.
U uslovima kada je penetracija u ukupnom
stanovništvu dostigla svoj maksimum, mobilni operateri mogu poveća(va)ti profit (ili
ga zadržati) samo zadržavanjem profitabilnih korisnika, ponudom novih usluga postojećim korisnicima, pronalaženjem pojedinih
grupa unutar ciljne populacije itd. Prema
našim istarživanjima, telekomunikacione
kompanije ulažu veliki novac za dobijanje
novih korisnika. Međutim, to može koštati
do deset puta više nego zadržavanje postojećih, čemu se ne pridaje velik značaj. Telekokom Srpske ima značajnu neiskorištenost
kapaciteta tokom pojedinih dijelova dana,
sedmice i mjeseca, dok, s druge strane,
mora imati dovoljne kapacitete da opslužuje sate najvećeg opterećenja. Razumijevanje korisničkog ponašanja i neiskorišćenog
mrežnog kapaciteta omogućava Telekomu
Srpske da ponudi servise koji bi apsorbovali neiskorišćene mrežne kapacitete. Da bi
mogli vršiti kvalitetnu analizu, neophodno
je uvođenje tzv. Sistema za podršku odlučivanju (decision support system - DSS). DSS
sistem omogućava dubinske analize velikih
124
companies that have lost a privileged monopoly status and entered into a new era
of competition with other companies, realized that the customer relationship management (CRM) key factors which differentiate the best when compared to the
others. The strategy, which is focused on
the customer depends on the availability
of new technologies that enable fast and
efficient understanding of their needs and
behaviors, allowing the company’s competitiveness. To be fully informed about
their users, in Telekom Srpske they collect
information twofold: on their behavior and
their circumstances. Every contact with
the customer has to be used for gathering information. Developing user oriented
management and fully understanding customers is the only way of existence on the
market. Telecommunication companies are
facing many problems. The retain of customers is the biggest problem in telecommunication.
In circumstances where the penetration of
the total population reached its peak, mobile operators can increase their profit (or
keep it) just by retention of profitable customers, by offering new services to existing customers and detecting certain groups
within the target population, etc. According
to our researches, telecommunication companies invest a lot of money for obtaining
new customers. However, it can cost up to
ten times more than retaining existing ones,
which is often a neglected fact. Telekom
Srpske has an insufficient exploitation of
capacities in certain parts of the day, week
and month, while, on the other hand, it must
have sufficient capacity to handle the highest rush hours. Understanding the customer’s behavior and unused network capacity,
enables Telekom Srpske to offer services
that would absorb unused network capacity.
In order to perform qualitative analysis, it
is necessary to introduce the so-called (decision support systems DSS). DSS system
provides in-depth analysis of large amounts
of data, providing the ability to observe in-
V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATION AND DESIGN IN FUNCTION...
količina podataka, dajući mogućnost pogleda na informacije iz više uglova. Prilikom
kreiranja DSS-a u mobilnoj telefoniji, jedan
od zahtjeva je i da se analiza vrši na više i sa
više nivoa, omogućavajući krajnjim korisnicima mogućnost postavljanja raznih pitanja
na koja treba da se dobije jasan i precizan
odgovor. Arhitekturu sistema za podršku
odlučivanju čine tri komponente: izvorni
sistemi; skladište podataka i platforma poslovne inteligencije. Prethodno razmotreni
problemi i relacije u poslovanju najbolje
se mogu ilustrovati praktičnim primjerom,
a koji izražava specifičnost djelatnosti koju
obavlja Telekom Srpske i način mjerenje rezultata njegove poslovne efikasnosti.
U studiji slučaja obrađen je problem
prelaska sa minutnog na sekundno obračunavanje cijene impulsa, tj. promjenu
obračunskog tarifnog intervala „60+1“
sekundi u „10+1“ sekundi. Cilj je bio
dobiti potpuni uvid u rješenje problema prelaska sa minutnog na sekundno
obračunavanje cijene impulsa, uočiti područja definisana problemom, odrediti
parametre koji definišu ta područja, uočiti eventualna pravila, uzorke ili interesantne pojave. U praktičnom primjeru su
obuhvaćene sve faze analize: faza razumijevanja problema, faza čišćenja i pripremanja podataka, izbor odgovarajućeg
modela (algoritma), faza modeliranja, te
evaluacija rezultata modeliranja. Analiza
je obavljena korišćnjem vizuelizacijskih
tehnika i metoda (algoritama) pretraživanja podataka. Od puštanja u komercijalni rad, Mobilna telefonija Srpske
(m:tel), kada govorimo o obračunskim
intervalima, imala je „60+1“ sekundni
interval. Zbog konkurencije na tržištu
BiH, m:tel je bio primoran da razmatra
mogućnost promjene obračunskog intervala. U analizi su razmatrane četiri varijante obračunskih intervala koje su potencijalno mogle da zadovolje korisnike
i menadžment preduzeća – jer uvođenje
novog obračunskog intervala dovodi do
gubitka prihoda m:tel-a.
formation from different angles. While creating DSS in mobile telephony, one of the
requests is to provide the analysis on more
levels in order to provide the users with
the ability to ask various questions that
should provide a clear and precise answer.
The architecture of decision support system
consists of three components: the source
systems, data warehouse and business intelligence platform. Previously discussed
problems and relationships in business can
be best illustrated through a practical example, which expresses the specific activities
carried out by the Telekom Srpske and a
way of measuring the results of its operating efficiency.
In case study the problem of transfer from
minute to second calculation of impulse
prize: i.e. the shift of calculation of tariff
interval „60+1“ seconds to „10+1“ seconds.
The aim was to obtain a complete insight
in the solution of of the problem of transfer from minute to second calculation of
impulse prize, spot the areas defined with
the problem, set the parametres which define those areas, observe possible rules,
patterns or interesting phenomena. In practical example all phases in the analysis are
covered: the phase of understanding the
problem, the phase of cleaning and preparation information, choosing the right model
(algorithm), phase of molding and evaluation of molding results. The analysis is performed by using visualization techniques
and methods (algorithms) of data research.
Since the begginig of the commercial operation, mobile operator of Republic of Srpska (m:tel), when speaking about charging
interval, used the „60+1“ seconds interval.
Due to the competition in the market of
Bosnia and Herzegovina, m:tel was forced
to consider the possibility of changing the
charging interval. The analysis considered
four variants of billing intervals that are potentially able to satisfy customers and company management - since the introduction
of the new accounting interval leads to loss
of income for m: tel.
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Slika 1. Varijante obračunskih intervala
Picture 1. Versions of charging intervals
Obrada podataka korišćenjem alata poslovne inteligencije pokazala je da će interval
“10+1“ biti atraktivan kada se posmatra sa
korisničke tačke gledišta. Za “10+1“ interval
nije potreban novi sistem naplate.
Razmatran je i sekundni interval, ali zbog
prostora za buduće ustupke prema korisnicima i razlike u gubicima prihoda, smatralo se
da je “10+1“ interval u tom trenutku bio najadekvatniji.
Planirano je da se novi obračunski interval
implementira isključivo na novim tarifnim
modelima u postpaid-u i na prepaid-u. Gubitak prihoda je 7,3770% bez porasta saobraćaja (Grafikon 1). Treba napomenuti da
je analiza rađena kao „najgori scenario“ (bez
porasta saobraćaja kome doprinose novi korisnici i bez povećanja prosječne potrošnje
korisnika).
Data analysis using business intelligence
tools showed that the interval“10+1“ will be
active, when observed from the consumers
point of view. For “10+1“ interval, new system of charging is not necessary.
The second-interval was also considered,
but the scope for future concessions to the users and the differences in revenue losses, it
was thought that the “10 +1” interval at the
time was the most appropriate.
It is planned to implement a new charging
interval exclusively in accordance with the
new tariff models in the postpaid and prepaid.
Income loss is 7,3770% with no increase in
traffic (Graph 1). It should be mentioned that
the analysis was done as the „worst scenario“
(with no increase in traffic which is contributed by new customers without the increase of
average consumer spending).
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Prihod sa 10+1 [Income from 10+1 interval]
Gubitak prihoda [Loss of income]
Grafikon 2. Gubitak prihoda sa prelaskom na
10 sekundni interval
Graph 2. The loss of revenue in transition to
the 10 second interval
Očekivane prednosti novog tarifnog modela Telekoma Srpske trebalo bi da dovedu do
porasta saobraćaja koji je marketinški prikladan za komunikaciju sa korisnicima, migracije sa prepaid-а na postpaid, smanjenja odlazaka korisnika, pozitivnog mišljenja medija u
okruženju, zadovoljstva korisnika, poboljšanja imidža kompanije.
U cilju unapređenja poslovanja, Telekom
Srpske, uvođenjem alata poslovne inteligencije, odnosno, preduzetničkog intelidžensa,
sprovodi pretraživanje podataka o različitim
aktivnostima unutar sistema, što obuhvata:
informacije o telefonskim pozivima, informacije o radu sistema, informacije o smetnjama i
kvarovima u mreži, informacije o korisnicima
usluga, informacije potrebne za naplatu korišćenih usluga itd. Na taj način omogućava se
da informacije skrivene u tim podacima ne
budu izgubljene, već da budu iskorišćene za
poboljšanje kvaliteta usluge, planiranje i uvođenje novih usluga, zadržavanje profitabilnih
klijenata i sprečavanje njihovog odlaska konkurenciji, pronalaženje načina za izbjegavanje zagušenja u mreži itd.
U praktičnom primjeru su obuhvaćene sve
faze preduzetničkog intelidžensa, posmatrano
Expected benefits of the new tariff model of
Telekom Srpske should lead to: an increase in
traffic which is, from the marketing point of
view, suitable for communications with customers; migration from prepaid to postpaid;
decreased loss of users; positive reviews of
media in the environment; customer satisfaction; improvement of company image.
In order to improve the business through the
introduction of business intelligence tools,
ie, enterpreneurship intelligence, Telekom
Srpske conducts data research on variety of
activities within the system, which includes:
information about phone calls, information
about the operation of the system, information about the disturbances and failures in the
network, information about users services,
the information necessary for charging used
services, etc. These activities are allowing
that information hidden in these data are not
lost, but used to improve the quality of services, planning and introduction of new services,
retaining profitable customers and preventing
them to use competition’s services, finding
ways to avoid congestion in the network, etc.
The example from practice covers all phases of enterpreneurship intelligence, from the
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V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
iz ugla upravljanja: brzo prikupljanje podataka, kratka analiza (primjena alata poslovne inteligencije), originalno istraživanje (korišćenje tarifnih paketa različitog trajanja), ciljno
posmatranje (cilj istraživanja je da se pronađe
tarifni paket koji će biti dovoljno dobar za korisnike sa minimalnim gubicima za kompaniju, sa perspektivom povećanja prihoda usljed
povećanja broja korisnika), intelidžens sistemi (efikasnija upotrebe ljudskog kapitala), intelidžens komunikacija (manifestuju se putem
prezentacije, informacione tehnologije, informacione psihologije, informacione politike i
dr. (Kalakota & Robinson, 2002, str. 36).
viewpoint of management: rapid data collection; brief analysis (application tools business
intelligence) original research (using tariff
packages of varying length) target observation (research goal is to find a tariff plan that
will be good enough for users with minimal
loss for the company, with the perspective
of increasing revenue due to an increase in
the number of users); intelligence systems
(efficient use of human capital); intelligence
communication (manifested through the presentation, information technology, information
psychology, information policy, etc.) (Kalakota & Robinson, 2002, p. 36).
Studija slučaja “Grafotisak”
Case study „Grafotisak“
Grafotisak s distribucijom školskog i kancelarijskog materijala, te grafičkih repromaterijala počeo je da radi 1990. godine. Od tada
uspješno plasira brendove svojih dobavljača i
vlastite proizvode na tržište BiH, ali i na tržište u regije.
Tržište je prepoznalo Grafotisak kao sigurnog partnera, te je to preduzeće dugi niz godina tržišni lider. Trajnim reinvestiranjem dobiti
u nove tehnologije i u distribuciju neprekidno
poboljšava uslove poslovanja. Kako bi u svakom trenutku mogao udovoljiti potrebama
kupaca, Grafotisak posjeduje skladišne prostore u Grudama, Sarajevu, Banja Luci i Tuzli, u kojima je smješten kompletan asortiman
artikala koje svakodnevno proširuje i izvozi
u preko 10 zemalja u okruženju. Grafotisak
je 2008. godine postao vlasnik 50% poduzeća Fokus d.o.o., tržišnog lidera u distribuciji
kancelarijskog i školskog materijala, te konfekcioniranog papira u Republici Hrvatskoj.
Grafotisak iz Gruda, BiH, osnovan je 1983.
godine kao manje proizvodno preduzeće grafičkih proizvoda. Od tada dinamično raste i
uspješno plasira brendove svojih dobavljača
i vlastitih proizvoda, ali i na tržištu zemalja
Zapadnog Balkana.
Grafotisak koristi preduzetničku strategiju
“tržišne niše” i uvlačenja kupaca u poslovni
proces, te stalno inoviranje proizvodnog programa, što mu omogućuje povećanje učešća
Grafotisak started distributing school, office and graphic supplies in 1990. Since then,
this company successfully distibutes brands
of its suppliers and their own products on the
market of Bosnia and Herzegovina and on the
regional market.
The market recognized Grafotisak as a secure
partner, which makes this company a longtime market leader. Permanent reinvesting of
profit in new technologies and distribution,
continuously improves business conditions. In
order to please the needs of customers in every
moment, Grafotisak possess storage spaces
in Grude, Sarajevo, Banja Luka and Tuzla, in
which complete range of products, which is
expanded and exported in over ten countries in
region on a daily bases, is situated. In 2008,
Grafotisak became the owner of 50% of Fokus
enterprise, market leader in distribution of office and school supplies in Republic of Croatia.
Grafotisak company, based in Grude, Bosnia
and Herzegovina was founded in 1983. as a
smaller enterprise for production of graphic
products. Since then it grows dynamically and
successfully distributes the brands of their suppliers and their own products on the market of
the countries from the Western Balcans.
Grafotisak uses the entrepreneurial strategy of
„market niche“ and indentation of customers in
the business process and continuous innovation of
production programme which allows it to increase
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V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NEW TECHNOLOGIES, INNOVATION AND DESIGN IN FUNCTION...
na tržištu. Grafotisak kao tržišni lider regije
u proizvodnji i prometu grafičkih proizvoda
izradio je vlastiti razvojni model – trajno reinvestiranje dobiti u nove tehnologije i inovacije u grafičkom inženjerstvu. Rezultat takvog
modela razvoja je višestruko povećanje obima poslovanja. Broj zaposlenih je porastao
sa desetak zaposlenih prilikom osnivanja na
preko 350 zaposlenih u tri države (BiH, Hrvatska, Srbija) u 2013. godini. Ključnu ulogu
u dizajniranju modela razvoja Grafotiska ima
razvojna služba koja stipendira, zapošljava
i motiviše talentovane mlade stručnjake za
inovativna rješenja u grafičkom inženjerstvu
i dizajnu.
Planovi razvoja proizvodnog programa se
kreiraju po savremenim metodama poslovnog
predviđanja i preduzetničkog intelidžensa. Zahvaljujući razvoju zasnovanom na novim znanjima, primjeni novih tehnologija i privlačenju
mladih, talentovanih kadrova i posebnom pristupu kupcima (uvođenje kupca u sistem proizvodnje i njegovo pretvaranje iz konsumenta u
prosumenta) ovo preduzeće je uspjelo ne samo
da izbjegne smanjenje obima poslovanja poslije “izbijanja” krize, nego je uspjelo i povećati
obim proizvodnje i plasmana na domaćem i
stranom tržištu za 43% u periodu od 2009. do
2012. godine.
the participation in the market. Grafotisak, as a regional market leader in producing and distribution
of graphic products, has built their own development model – permanent reinvestment of income
in new technologies and innovation in graphic engineering. The result of that kind of development
model is multiple increase of business volume.
The number of employees has increased from
about ten to over 350 employees in three countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia)
in 2013. The key role in designig the model of
development of Grafotisak has the development
department which provide scholarships, hires and
motivates talented young experts for innovative
solutions in graphic engineering and desing.
Development plans are created in accordance with contemporary methods of business
forecasting and entrepreneurial intelligence.
Due to development based on new knowledge, implementig new technologies, atracting young, talented personnel and special
approach to customers (introducing the customer in the system of production and its turn
from consument to prosument) this company
managed to, not only avoid the decrease of
business volume in the period of crisis, but
to increase the volume of production and distribution on domestic and foreign market for
43% in the period of 2009 to 2012.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Mnoga preduzeća iz industrijskog sektora
razvijenih zemalja, a posebno zemalja u tranziciji (kao što je BiH) loše su pozicionirani u
svjetskoj ekonomiji u vrijeme globalne ekonomske krize. Globalizacija i kriza predstvljaju najveće probleme za zrele industrije i
preduzeća ukoliko nedovoljno ulažu u nove
proizvode, nove tehnologije, dizajn i kadrove
koji imaju nove poslovne ideje. Stoga je neophodna revitalizacija zrelih preduzeća i industrijskih sektora i pokretanje razvoja novih
preduzeća i nove industrije zasnovane na novim znanjima, novim tehnologijama i sistemskim inovacijama (Antončič, 2002, str. 4).
Sistematičnom analizom se može uočiti
da su značajan broj preduzetnika i preduzeća
Many enterprises from the industrial sector
of developed countries, especially countries in
transition (such as Bosnia and Herzegovina) are
poorly positioned in world economy in the period of global economic crisis. Globalization and
crisis present the biggest problems for mature
industries and enterprises if they do not invest
enough in new products, new technologies, design and cadres that provide new business ideas.
Therefore, revitalization of mature enterprises
and industrial sectors and initiation of development of new enterprises and new industry based
on new knowledge, new technologies and system innovation (Antončič, 2002, p. 4).
Systematic analysis shows that significant number of entrepreneurs and enterprises recorded rapid
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V. Vukmirović, N. Vukmirović: NOVE TEHNOLOGIJE, DIZAJN I INOVACIJE U FUNKCIJI REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJE
zabilježili brzi rast prihoda, izvoza i zaposlenosti, kao i povećanje kapitala baš u vijeme
krize. To ukazuje na to da su ova preduzeća
i preduzetnici sa izraženim preduzetničkim
duhom iskoristili krizu kao nepriliku za kreiranje vlastite prilike za razvoj. Na te pojave u
ranijim krizama ukazao je G. Gilder u svojim
istraživanjima koje je provodio dugi niz godina u SAD-u. Njegova istraživanja su ukazala
na to da preduzetnički duh u kompanijama
doprinosi ne samo optimalnom kombinovanju postojećih resursa, nego i kreiranju novih
resursa. Naša istraživanja su pokazala (posebno dvije analize slučaja) da u vrijeme krize
treba povećati ulaganja u istraživanje i razvoj,
a ne smanjivati ta ulaganja u cilju štednje koja
je u ovom slučaju kontraproduktivna. Navedena istraživananja su pokazala da primjena
koncepta inovativniog dizajna i preduzetničkog marketinga u preduzećima omogućava
formiranje uslova za uspješniji tržišni nastup
i za postizanje konkurentske sposobnosti preduzeća.
U praksi se pokazalo da nema ozbiljnijeg
razvoja malog, eksternog preduzetništva bez
razvoja internog preduzetništva u velikim
korporacijama oko kojih se kao sazviježđe
razvija mnoštvo malih kooperantskih preduzeća. Osnovni pokretač svih aktivnosti su
bila nova znanja, nove tehnologije, inovacije i kreativni kadrovi. Sa odvijanjem procesa tranzicije, znanje će sve više biti faktor od
opredjeljujućeg značaja za novi razvoj industrije i pratećih korporativnih djelatnosti u
obliku malih i srednjih preduzeća.
Kao jedna od ključnih aktivnosti unapređenja industrijskog preduzetništva javlja se kreiranje procesa obrazovanja iz oblasti preduzetništva (kreiranje poslovnih ideja, dizajniranje i
brendiranje proizvoda, proizvodnja softvera i
drugih oblika nematerijalne imovine.
growth of revenue, exports and employment, as well
as an increase in equity in the period of crisis. This
points to the fact that these companies and entrepreneurs with strong entrepreneurial spirit use the crisis
as a trouble to create their own opportunities for development. G. Gilder pointed out at the occurrence
of the earlier crisis in his research which was conducted in the United States. His research indicated
that the entrepreneurial spirit in companies, does not
only contribute to the optimal combining of existing
resources, but also the creation of new resources. Our
researches showed that in the period of economic
crises the investments in research and development
should be increased, not decreased, as a measure
of savings, which is in this case counterproductive.
Stated researches showed that implementation of
innovative design concept and entrepreneurial marketing in companies provide creating conditions for
more successful market appearance and achieving
competitive ability. Implementation of the corporative entrepreneurship concept allows forming conditions for more successful market performance and
achieving competitive ability of the company.
In fact, the practice has shown that there is
no serious development of small, external enterprise, without the development of internal
entrepreneurship in large corporations, around
which many small cooperative companies
develop as a constellation. The main driving
force of all activities were new knowledge,
new technologies, innovations and innovative
cadres. With the progress of the transition process, the knowledge will increasingly be a factor of decisive importance for the development
of entrepreneurship in transition economies.
As one of the key activities of improving industrial entrepreneurship, the creation of the
educational process in the field of entrepreneurship can be emphasized (creating business
ideas, design and branding, production software and other forms of intangible property).
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
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Adizes, I. (2002). Lifecycle management
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Amor, D. (2002). The E-Business Revolution.
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131
132
REINDUSTRIJALIZACIJA I REFORME - REINDUSTRIALIZATION AND REFORM
KONCEPT ORGANIZACIONOG DIZAJNA I NJEGOVA PRIMJENA U
RESTRUKTURIRANJU PREDUZEĆA U OBLASTI ELEKTROPRIVREDE
CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE
RESTRUCTURING OF ELECTRIC POWER COMPANIES
Mr Rajko Stevanović
Rudnik i Termoelektrana a.d. Ugljevik
Stručni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402009S, UDK 621.311:005.591.4
Professional paper
REZIME
ABSTRACT
Organizovanje preduzeća predstavlja proces u kome se vrši diferencijacija i integracija
elemenata organizacije.
Česte promjene u okruženju nameću imperativ menadžmentu da stalno usavršava oraganizacionu struktruru kompanije u cilju sticanja, očuvanja i unapređenja njene pozicije
na tržištu.
Organizacioni dizajn je usmjeren ka debirokratizaciji elektroprivrednog preduzeća,
pomjenom oraganizacione kulture od tehnokratske ka menadžment kulturi i redizajnu
poslovnih funkcija.
Oragnizaciona struktura se transformiše od
funkcionalne forme ka sve više timskoj strukturi i inovativnoj organizaciji.
Business organising is a process which performs differentiation and integration of organisation elements.
Frequent changes in the environment set an
imperative to the management to constantly
improve the organisational structure in order
to acquire, preserve and upgrade its market
position.
Organisational design is aimed at the power utility companies debureaucratisation by
changing the organisation culture from a technocratic to management culture and towards the redesign of business functions.
Organisational structure is being transformed
from a functional form to increasingly more team-oriented structure and innovative organisation.
Ključne riječi: oraganizacioni dizajn, organizaciona
struktura, elektroprivreda, strategija, model
Keywords: organisation design, organisation
structure, power utility, strategy, model
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Svaka organizacija tokom svog razvoja
prolazi kroz niz faza, a prelazak u svaku sljedeću fazu je iniciran pojavom krizne situacije.
Da bi se krizna situacija prevladala i organizacija nastavila sa svojim razvojem, neophodno
je da bude u stanju da se suoči sa promjenama
i prelazi sa jednog na drugi oblik organizacione strukture.
Promjene organizacione strukture provode
se restrukturiranjem, čiji je cilj stvaranje fleksibilne strukture koja treba da odgovori dinamičnim tržišnim uslovima poslovanja.
Any organisation experiences a series of phases during its development, while the transition to
each subsequent phase is initiated by the appearance of a crisis situation. In order to overcome
such situation and to enable the organisation to
continue its development, it has to be able to
deal with the changes and to traverse from one
to another type of organisational structure.
Changes in the organisational structure are implemented via the restructuring process, aimed at
creating a flexible structure that should respond
to the dynamic market operating conditions.
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Reforme u elektroprivredi mijenjaju institucionalne uslove i uslove poslovanja elektroprivrednih preduzeća i generišu strateški
zaokret u poslovanju preduzeća, što dalje inplicira brojne druge promjene, a među njima,
kao najvažnije, organizacione promjene.
U postizanju poslovnog uspjeha elektroprivrednog preduzeća u tržišnim uslovima, najvažniji zadatak menadžmenta je da uspostavi
pravi odnos između strategije, strukture i poslovnih procesa.
Reforms in the electric power utility change
institutional requirements and business conditions of electric power companies and generate strategic shift in business, which further
implies numerous other changes, including,
most importantly, the organisational changes.
Achieving the business success of an electric
power company in the electric power market
conditions, the most important task of management is to establish a proper relationship between strategy, structure and business processes.
DEFINISANJE ORGANIZACIONOG
DIZAJNA
DEFINING ORGANISATIONAL
DESIGN
Organizacioni dizajn predstavlja proces u
kom se obavljaju menadžerske aktivnosti na
stvaranju modela organizacione strukture u
skladu sa kontekstom organizacije. Prema savremenom, kontigentnom pristupu, najbolji
dizajn za organizaciju je određen spoljašnjim
okruženjem, tj. stepenom u kome je organizacija izložena promjenama (Petković, 2011,
str. 150). Menadžeri treba da znaju da u procesu dizajniranja organizacije preduzeća koje
vode unaprijed utiču na njegovu efikasnost.
Ako naprave pogrešan izbor modela organizacione strukture, onda su u startu uticali da
organizacija bude generator troškova i nezadovoljstva zaposlenih.
Sa stanovišta zakona, organizaciono restrukturiranje predstavlja jednu vrstu pripreme preduzeća za ulazak u privatizaciju. U stvari, treba
stvoriti adekvatan organizacioni dizajn preduzeća, odnosno otkloniti sve manjkavosti postojećeg modela organizacione strukture.
Elektroprivredna preduzeća su velika i
stara vertikalno integrisana preduzeća koja
obavljaju složenu djelatnost kao i veliki broj
povezanih i međuzavisnih aktivnosti na velikoj teritoriji. Imajući u vidu sve specifičnosti
elektroprivrednih preduzeća, pred menadžerima je veoma složen zadatak pri izboru odgovarajućeg organizacionog dizajna, s obzirom
da u praksi ne postoji idealan organizacioni
model koji bi odgovarao svim zahtjevima kojima je preduzeće izloženo. Na menadžmentu
Organisational design is the process in which
management activities are performed in order to
create a model of organisational structure in line
with the context of the organisation. According
to the modern, contingent approach, the best
organisational design is determined by the external environment, i.e. by the extent to which
the organisation is subject to change (Petković,
2011, p. 150). Managers should be aware that
the design process of organisation of the company they run, directly affects the efficiency of
such company. If they select the wrong model of
organisational structure, then they have initially
influenced the organisation to be a generator of
costs and cause employee dissatisfaction.
From the legal standpoint, organisational restructuring is one methods of preparing a company for the process of privatisation. In fact, an adequate organisational design of a company should
be made, thus eliminating all the shortcomings of
the existing model of organisational structure.
Electric power companies are large and
quite old vertically integrated companies
that perform complex activities as well as the
number of related and interdependent activities across a large territory. Taking into account all the specificities of the electric power
companies the managers face very difficult
task in selecting the appropriate organisational design. Since in practice there is no ideal
organisational model that would suit all the
requirements to which the Company is ex-
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R. Stevanović: CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE RESTRUCTURING...
je zadatak da pronađe odgovarajuću kombinaciju organizacionih modela.
posed, the management has to find the adequate combination of organisational models .
MEHANIČKI I ORGANSKI DIZAJN
MECHANICAL AND ORGANIC DESIGN
Organizacioni dizajn je kompleksno pitanje
i predstavlja veoma odgovoran posao menadžera u svakoj organizaciji. Menadžerima
su na raspolaganju dva koncepta organizacionog dizajna – mehanički i organski dizajn.
Organisational design is a complex issue
and represents a very responsible task for the
manager in any organisation. Managers have
two concepts of organisational design at their
disposal: mechanical and organic design.
Mehanički model
Mechanical model
Mehanički model odgovara stabilnom
okruženju gdje su zahtjevi okruženja krajnje
predvidivi, gdje organizacije obavljaju iste
aktivnosti na uobičajen način sa jasnim organizacionim ulogama pojedinaca i ustaljenim
linijama autoriteta i odgovornosti. Mehanički
dizajn ima tri pojavna oblika strukture: mašinska birokratija, profesionalna birokratija i
divizionalni model. Zajedničko ovim modelima je da se primjenjuju u velikim i zrelim
organizacijama.
Svi modeli mehaničkog dizajna imaju
osobine birokratije: (1) uska specijalizacija, (2) visoka standardizacija i formalizacija, (3) ograničeno delegiranje autoriteta,
(4) vertikalno hijerarhizovana i masivna
organizacija (Vukadinović, 2005, str. 256).
Mechanical model corresponds to a stable
environment where the environment requirements are utterly predictable, where organisations perform the same actions in the usual
way with clear organisational roles of individuals and established lines of authority and
responsibility. Mechanical design has three
forms of its structure: mechanical bureaucracy, professional bureaucracy and divisional
model. These models share their application
in large and mature organisations.
All the models of a mechanical design share
the features of bureaucracy: (1) narrow specialisation, (2) high standardisation and formalisation, (3) limited delegation of authority,
(4) vertically hierarched and massive organisation (Vukadinović, 2005, p. 256).
Organski model
Organic model
Organski model je prihvatljiv u nestabilnim
uslovima gdje je okruženje relativno nestabilno i nemirno, tehnologija je kompleksna i
dinamična, preduzeće obavlja veliki broj neustaljenih aktivnosti u kojima su kreativnost i
inovacije veoma značajni, aktivnosti se koordiniraju i kontrolišu neposrednim komuniciranjem. Pojavni oblici organskog dizajna su
horizontalni modeli organizacione strukture:
matrični, inovativni i preduzetnički.
Obilježja organskog modela: (1) šira specijalizacija zaposlenih, (2) delegiranje autoriteta
(decentralizacija odlučivanja), (3) grupisanje
poslova oko procesa rada i (4) koordinacija
Organic model is acceptable in unstable conditions where the environment is relatively unstable
and turbulent, where the technology is complex
and dynamic, the company performs numerous
uncommon activities in which the creativity and
innovation are very important and in cases where
the activities are coordinated and controlled by direct communication. The manifestations of organic design are horizontal models of organisational
structure: matrix, innovative and entrepreneurial.
The characteristics of the organic model: (1)
broader specialisation of the employees, (2) delegation of authority (decentralisation of decision-making), (3) grouping jobs around the work
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putem neposrednog komuniciranja (Filipović
& Tanić, 2010, str. 162).
Pri sagledavanju osobina pomenutih modela, na menadžerima je da odluče o tome da
li će odgovarajući organizacioni model imati
više mehaničkih ili organskih osobina.
Elektroenergetski sektor je dugo vremena
bio prirodni vertikalno integrisani monopol
u državnom vlasništvu. U većini zemalja u
svijetu elektroenergetski sektor je bio pod
kontrolom jedne vertikalno integrisane kompanije i strogo regulisan od strane državnih
agencija, koje su u energetskom sektoru provodile svoju socijalnu politiku.
Tradicionalni regionalni elektroprivredni
monopoli kao organizacioni oblici elektroprivredne djelatnosti po svojoj formi predstavljaju složene organizacione strukture i funkcionalno-divizione hibride.
Osnovna organizaciona karakteristika tradicionalne elektroprivrede je veoma visok stepen vertikalne i horizontalne integrisanosti.
U elektroprivrednim preduzećima prednosti
horizontalne integracije dovode do ekonomije obima u izgradnji optimalne veličine proizvodnih kapaciteta, potrebnih kapaciteta prenosne i distributivne mreže, čime se postiže
najniži trošak po jedinici kapaciteta.
Oblici organizacije elektroprivrede i elektroprivrednih preduzeća se mnogo razlikuju
po zemljama, tako da je, zbog velikog broja
mogućih konfiguracija, teško dati jednu jasnu klasifikaciju. U veoma dugom periodu
tradicionalna elektroprivreda, kao infrastrukturna djelatnost od strategijskog značaja i
elektroprivredna preduzeća kao specifični
organizacioni sistemi, svoj razvoj su ostvarili
u okviru dominirajućeg tradicionalnog koncepta i shvatanja organizacije javnog sektora.
Prema toj koncepciji ispostavilo se da je vertikalna integracija faza proizvodnje, prenosa i
distribucije električne energije, koje obavljaju
veliki državni monopoli u javnom vlasništvu
najbolji, pa čak i jedini način da se ostvari osnovna funkcija elektroprivrednih preduzeća.
136
process and (4) Coordination through direct communication (Filipović & Tanić, 2010, p. 162).
By observing the characteristics of these
models, the managers are to decide whether
the appropriate organisational model shall
have more mechanical or organic properties.
The electric power sector has long been a
natural vertically integrated state-owned monopoly. In most of the world’s countries, the
electric power sector has been under the control of a single vertically integrated company
and strictly regulated by state agencies, which
conducted executed their social policy via the
energy sector.
Traditional regional electric power monopolies, as organisational forms of the electric
power service, with regards to their form represent complex organisational structures and
functional-divisional hybrids.
The basic organisational feature of a traditional electric power utility is a very high
level of vertical and horizontal integration. In
the electric power companies the advantages
of horizontal integration lead to economies
of scale in the formation of the optimal size
of production capacity, required capacity of
transmission and distribution networks, thus
resulting in the lowest cost per unit of capacity.
The organisational forms of the electric power utility and electric power companies greatly
vary across countries, therefore, due to the vast
number of possible configurations, it is difficult
to provide a clear classification. In such a very
long period, a traditional electric power utility, as
an infrastructure service of strategic importance
and, electric power companies as specific organisational systems , have achieved their development within the dominant traditional concept and
comprehension of the public sector organisation.
According to this concept, it appears that vertical
integration of the phases of generation, transfer
and distribution of electric power, performed by
large state-owned monopolies, represents the
best or perhaps the only way to perform the basic
function of the electric power companies.
R. Stevanović: CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE RESTRUCTURING...
POJAM ORGANIZACIONE
STRUKTURE
THE CONCEPT OF ORGANISATIONAL
STRUCTURE
Organizacionu strukturu možemo definisati
kao način na koji su aktivnosti u preduzeću
integrisane u organizacione jedinice. U realnim uslovima poslovanja nema idealne, već
samo optimalne organizacione strukture. Optimalna organizaciona struktura je ona koja je
najbolja u datim uslovima, odnosno ona koja
je prilagođena relevantnim faktorima.
Organizaciona struktura preduzeća može u
značajnoj mjeri da pospiješi ili spriječi efikasno odvijanje poslovnih procesa i na taj način
povoljno ili nepovoljno djeluje na poslovne
rezultate preduzeća. Izbor odgovarajuće vrste
organizacione strukture preduzeća, predstavlja jednu od najvažnijih odluka preduzeća, jer
ukoliko se usvoji organizaciona struktura koja
ne odgovara situaciji u kojoj se organizacija
nalazi, ona će usporiti ili zakočiti sposobnosti
upravljačkog sistema.
Način strukturiranja organizacije je specifičan za svaku organizaciju i svojstven samo
njoj, te se ne može govoriti o jedinstvenom
načinu strukturiranja organizacije.
U slučaju elektroprivrede imamo dva osnovna kriterijuma za organizaciono strukturiranje
vertikalno i horizontalno integrisanih elektroenergetskih preduzeća: funkcionalni i teritorijalni (Katić & Strezorski, 2002, str. 10).
S obzirom na to da su u pitanju ogromna
preduzeća koja obavljaju elektroprivrednu
djelatnost na velikoj geografskoj teritoriji, organizaciona forma je, s jedne strane, funkcionalna zbog obaveze da se svi povezani procesi, odnosno funkcije vertikalno i horizontalno
integrisanog preduzeća obavljaju po standardizovanim uslovima.
S druge strane, uslijed velike teritorije i zadataka da se električnom energijom opsluže
svi potrošači na konzumnom području, organizaciona struktura je i divizionalna prema
geografskom kriterijumu – teritorijalna, decentralizovana organizaciona struktura. Otuda su organizacione strukture elektroprivrednih preduzeća funkcionalno-divizioni hibridi.
The organisational structure can be defined as
the method by which the activities of the company have been integrated in the organisational
units. In actual operating conditions there is no
ideal, but only the optimal organisational structure. The optimal organisational structure is the
one that is the best in the given circumstances, i.e.
the one which is suited for the relevant factors.
The organisational structure of the company
can significantly improve or prevent the efficient
implementation of business processes, thus having a beneficial or an adverse effect onto the business results of the company. Selecting the proper
type of organisational structure is one of the most
important decisions of the company, because if an
organisational structure that does not correspond
to a situation which the organisation is currently
facing is approved, it will slow down or halt the
abilities of the control system.
A method of structuring the organisation
is specific to each organisation in particular,
therefore a unique method of structuring the
organisation is unable to be defined.
As for the electric power utility, there are
two basic criteria for organisational structuring of vertically and horizontally integrated
electric power companies: functional and territorial (Katić & Strezorski, 2002, p. 10).
Given that the above are vast companies
that perform electric power service across a
large geographical area, the organisational
form in, on one hand, functional due to the responsibility that all the related processes and
functions of a vertically and horizontally integrated company should be performed based
on standardized conditions.
On the other hand, due to the large territory
and tasks to provide electricity to all the consumers in the consumer area, the organisational
structure is also divisional by geographic criteria - a territorial, decentralized organisational
structure. Hence, the organisational structures
of the electric power companies are functionally-divisional hybrids. Coordination of elec137
R. Stevanović: KONCEPT ORGANIZACIONOG DIZAJNA I NJEGOVA PRIMJENA U RESTRUKTURIRANJU...
Koordinacija elektroprivrednih preduzeća
ostvaruje se na bazi standardizacije procesa,
planskom koordinacijom direktivnih planova
i centrale holdinga, a ne na bazi standardizacije zadatka koja se primjenjuje u drugim velikim decentrlizovanim preduzećima u tržišnom okruženju sa divizionalnom strukturom
i koja primjenjuje multidivizionalnu organizacionu formu. Iz ovoga proističe da organizaciona struktura vertikalno integrisanog
preduzeća ima oblik divizionalne strukture sa
cenralizovanim planskim i decentralizovanim
operativnim poslovnim funkcijama. Komandni lanac funkcioniše odozgo na dolje tj. po
principu kontrolisane decentralizacije.
S obzirom na navedene specifičnosti
elektroprivrede i jedinstven oblik organizacije i upravljanja, vertikalno integrisana
elektroprivredna preduzeća predstavljaju
veoma specifične organizacione sisteme.
Upravo zbog toga je ova preduzeća teško
jasno svrstati u jedan od modela organizacione strukture, već se prije može govoriti o
dominantnim strukturnim karakteristikama
difernciranih tipova. To je iz razloga što
su u pitanju velika preduzeća koja obavljaju
složenu djelatnost i veliki broj povezanih i
međuzavisnih aktivnosti na velikoj teritoriji. U mjeri u kojoj su birokratske osobine
manje izražene, odnosno u mjeri u kojoj
je centralizacija odlučivanja manja, težiće
profesionalnom modelu i, obrnuto, što je
centralizovanost odlučivanja viša, težiće
birokratskom modelu.
Prema Mintzbergovoj tipologiji organizacionih struktura, organizaciona struktura u velikoj mjeri zavisi od karakteristika
sredine okruženja organizacije. Okruženje je određeno stepenom kompleksnosti i
promenljivosti okruženja. U zavisnosti od
ovih karakteristika okruženja možemo razlikovati pet tipova organizacionih formi
koje korespondiraju karakteru okruženja:
(1) preduzetničko preduzeće, (2) mašinska birokratija, (3) profesionalna birokratija, (4) divizioni model i (5) adhokratija
(CPU, 2010, str. 121).
138
tric power companies is made on the basis of
process standardisation, planned coordination
by directive plans and holding company headquarters and not on the basis of standardisation of the task which is applied in other large
decentralised companies in a market environment with divisional structure and that utilises
multidivisional organisational form. From this
can bee seen that the organisational structure
of a vertically integrated company has a form
of divisional structure with a centralised planning and decentralised operational business
functions. The chain of command works from
the top down, i.e. on the principle of controlled
decentralisation.
Given the aforementioned specificities of the
electric power utility and a unique form of organisation and management, vertically integrated electric power companies are very specific
organisational systems. That is exactly why
these companies are difficult to clearly classify
into one of the organisational structure models,
but it can rather be discussed about the dominant structural features of differentiated types.
The main reason being the fact that these are
large companies that perform complex business
operations and a great number of related and
interdependent activities across a large territory. The less the bureaucratic characteristics are
pronounced, i.e. the extent to which the centralisation of decision-making is less, it will tend towards the professional model and vice versa, the
higher is the centralisation of the decision-making, it will tend towards bureaucratic model.
According to Mintzberg typology of organisational structures, the organisational structure largely depends on the characteristics of
organisation environment. The environment is
determined by the level of complexity and variability of the environment. Depending on the
characteristics of the surroundings, five types
of organisational forms that correspond to the
character of the environment can be differentiated: (1) Entrepreneurial Organisation (Simple
Structure), (2) Machine Bureaucracy, (3) Professional Bureaucracy, (4) Division Model and
(5) Ad-hocracy (CPU, 2010, str. 121).
R. Stevanović: CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE RESTRUCTURING...
Tabela1
Organizaciona forma i koordinacioni
mehanizmi prema Mintzbergu (CPU,
2010, str. 121)
ORGANZACIONA FORMA
[ORGANISATIONAL FORM]
Preduzetnički tip organizacije
[Entrepreneurial Organisation (Simple Structure)]
Mašinaska birokratija
[Machine Bureaucracy]
Profesionalna birokratija
[Professional Bureaucracy]
Divizioni model
[Division Model]
Adhokratija
[Ad-hocracy]
Table 1
Organisational forms and coordination
mechanisms according to Mintzberg (CPU,
2010,p. 121)
KOORDINACIONI MEHANIZAM
[COORDINATION MECHANISM]
Direktni nadzor i kontrola
[Direct supervision and control]
Standardizacija procesa
[Standardisation of processes]
Standardizacija profesionalnih znanja i veština
[Standardisation of skills and knowledge]
Standardizacija procesa i performansi divizija
[Standardisation of output]
Koordinacija ad-hoc timova
[Coordination of ad-hoc teams]
Mintsberg, takođe, po elementima
organizacije razlikuje: strateški nivo,
tehnostrukturu, srednju liniju, osoblje
podrške i operativno jezgro (CPU,
2010, str. 125).
Prema tipologiji Mintsberga, ako već podrazumijevamo činjenicu da su ova preduzeća decentralizovana (po geografskim kriterijumima)
i da predstavljaju funkcionalno - divizionalne
hibride, elektroprivredno preduzeće bismo svrstali u profesionalne birokratije, ali koje takođe
ima i osobine mašinske birokratije.
U dijelu koji slijedi dajemo bliže objašnjenje navedenih vrsta birokratije.
Mintsberg also makes a division onto the
organisation elements and differentiates the
following: the Strategic Apex, Techno-structure, Middle Line, Support Staff and Operating Core (CPU, 2010, str. 125).
According to the typology of Mintsberg,
if we presume the fact that these companies
are decentralized (by geographical criteria)
and are functional - divisional hybrids, electric power company could be classified as the
professional bureaucracy, but which also has
properties of a machine bureaucracy.
In the following text a more detailed explanation
of the above types of bureaucracy shall follow.
Profesionalna birokratija
Professional bureaucracy
U elektroprivrednim preduzećima koordinacija se ostvaruje putem standardizacije
vještina, obukom i vođena indokrinacijom
zaposlenih. Elektroprivredna preduzeća, a
naročito u obavljanju tehničkih funkcija i zadataka, zapošljavaju obučene profesionalce
kako u operativnom jezgru tako i u drugim
dijelovima organizacije od kojih neki imaju i značajnu autonomiju i kontrolu u svom
radu. Koordinacija se vrši standardizacijom
znanja i vještina za obavljanje složenih procesa. Uslijed složene tehnologije djelatnosti,
naročito je prisutna moć tehnostrukture koja
ima zadatak da uspostavi standarde za obav-
Coordination within the power utility companies is achieved through standardisation of skills,
training and indoctrination of employees. Power
utility companies hire trained professionals, especially in performing technical functions and tasks,
where such professionals are hired both in the operating core and in other segments of the organisation, with some of them having a considerable
autonomy and control over their work. Coordination is done by standardizing the knowledge and
skills for performing complex processes. Due to
the complex technology of activities, the power of techno-structure it particularly notable, its
task being to establish standards for conducting
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ljanje velikog broja procesa i operacija. Osim
sopstvenih standarda i tehnostrukture u profesionalnim organizacijama se, u velikoj mjeri,
oslanjaju i na standarde donijete van organizacije – na poznavanje i primjenu standarda
profesionalnih udruženja i asocijacija. Time
se u elektroprivrednim preduzećima naročito
utemeljuje autoritet profesionalne prirode –
ekspertska moć. S obzirom na to da ni jedan
tehnički sistem ne može da se u potpunosti
automatizuje niti do kraja samoreguliše, uticaj tehnostrukture je veoma značajan. Tehnostruktura, kao element organizacije, nastoji
da zadrži svoju dominaciju pružajući otpor
da se racionalizuju tehnička znanja i vještine
i dekonponuju u pravila za primjenu, čime bi
struktura u potpunosti prešla od profesionalne
u mašinsku formu.
a large number of processes and operations. In
addition to their own standards, techno-structures
in professional organisations greatly rely onto the
standards adopted outside the organisation - such
as familiarisation and application of standards of
professional organisations and associations. This
allows the power utility companies to particularly
establish the authority of a professional type - expert power. Since no technical system can be fully automated nor be completely self-regulating,
the effect of techno-structure is very important.
Techno-structure, as an organisational element
is trying to maintain its dominance by resisting
rationalisation of the technical knowledge and
skills and their decomposing into the rules for
application, which would completely convert the
structure from the professional into a mechanical
form.
Mašinska birokratija
Machine bureaucracy
Elektroprivredna preduzeća posluju u stabilnom i zaštićenom okruženju u odsustvu
konkurencije, pa su kao velika preduzeća sa
dugom tradicijom u stanju da rutiniziraju svoje procese operacija i primijene decenijama
izgrađivane sopstvene standarde za neprekidne i ponavljajuće poslove. Jedan dio tehničkog sistema je u većoj mjeri samoregulišući,
pa ga je lakše standardizovati, odnosno formalizovati proces operacije. Elektroprivredno
preduzeće se zato odlikuje visokom specijalizacijom, rutinskim operativnim zadacima,
formalizovanim procedurama u operativnom
jezgru, kreiranjem brojnih pravila, postupaka i internih standarda, formalizovanom
komunikacijom kroz organizaciju, značajno
velikim organizacionim sredinama u operativnom jezgru, funkcionalnim zahtjevima u
dodeljivanju zadataka, centralizovanom moći
donošenja odluka, razvijenom administrativnom strukturom sa jasnom distinkcijom između linije i osoblja.
Prema tome, uslijed navedenih karakteristika,
elektroprivredno preduzeće možemo svrstati u profesionalnu procesnu birokratiju koja obavlja niz
procesa i zadataka na bazi standardnih procedura
i u okviru koje najveći uticaj ima tehnostruktura.
Power utility companies operate in a stable and secure environment in the absence of
competition, and being large companies with
a long tradition, they are able to establish a
routine regarding their operations processes
and apply their own standards built up for
decades for the purpose of dealing with continuous and repetitive tasks. A part of the technical system is largely self-regulating, so it is
easier to standardise, i.e. to formalise the operations process. Power utility companies are
therefore characterized by high specialisation,
routine operational tasks, formalised procedures in the operating core, creating a number
of rules, procedures and internal standards,
formalised communication throughout the
organisation, significantly large organisational environments in the operating core,
functional requirements in the assignment of
tasks, centralized decision-making power, developed administrative structure with a clear
distinction between lines and staff.
Therefore, due to the above features, a power utility
company can be classified as a professional bureaucracy
process bureaucracy that performs a series of processes and tasks based on standard procedures and within
which the techno-structure has the greatest impact.
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Proces deregulacije, odnosno promjena u
shvatanju snabdijevanja električnom energijom, doveo je do razvoja sofisticiranijih
strukturnih modela tržišta električne energije
sa različitim stepenima konkurencije.
Ovi modeli predstavljaju faze u liberalizaciji tržišta električne energije i svojevrstan su
put koji sve zemlje moraju proći u reformskom procesu elektroenergetskog sektora.
Svaki od ovih modela podrazumijeva postojanje određenog tržišnog mehanizma koji osigurava uvođenje konkurencije na tržištu električne energije.
The deregulation process, i.e. changes in
the understanding of electric power supply,
has led to the development of more sophisticated structural models of electricity market
with different levels of competition.
These models represent phases in the liberalisation of the electricity market and are
a characteristic path that all countries must
complete in the reform process of the electric
power sector. Each of these models implies
the existence of a market mechanism that ensures the introduction of competition onto the
electricity market.
MODELI DEREGULACIJE
ELEKTROPRIVREDE
MODELS OF ELECTRIC POWER
UTILITY DEREGULATION
Potpuno vertikalna integracija i
centralizovana kontrola
Complete Vertical Integration and
Centralised Control
Radi se o uslovima potpunog monopola i
nacionalizovanim elektroprivrednim sistemima gdje jedan entitet obavlja sve djelatnosti:
planiranje i izgradnju proizvodnih kapaciteta
i mreže, upravljanje, održavanje, isporuku i
naplatu električne energije.
It represents conditions of a complete monopoly and nationalisation of electric power
utility systems, where a single entity performs
all activities: planning and construction of generating capacities and network, management,
maintenance, delivery and billing of electricity.
Franšizno nadmetanje za prirodni monopol
Franchise Bidding for Natural Monopoly
Franšizno nadmetanje uvodi vremensko
ograničenje u trajanju ekskluzivnih ugovora
a time i konkurenciju za novi tender, koje posjeduju elektrokompanije pobjednice na konkursu, gdje po dobijanju ekskluziviteta postaju monopoli. Ovaj model zahtijeva veoma
čvrstu kontrolu. Može se primijeniti u konkurenciji za dobijanje prava na proizvodnju kao
i za prenos i distribuciju električne energije.
Franchise bidding introduces a time limit on
the duration of exclusive contracts, thus introducing eligible competition for the new bidding procedure, after which the selected electric power company is awarded with an actual
electric power monopoly. This model requires
very tight control. It can be used in the competition for the right to generate, as well as to
transmit and distribute electric power.
Konkurentno nadmetanje za prava na
proizvodnju
Competitive Bidding for Electric Power
Generation Rights
U ovom modelu postoji konkurencija, ali
samo za nove kapacitete. Oni se grade u okruženju monopolskog preduzeća koje je jedini
kupac električne energije novog kapaciteta i
čija proizvodnja nije ugrožena novim kapa-
This model contains certain level of competition, but only for new capacities. They are built
in an environment of a monopolistic company
that is the sole buyer of electric power generated
by the new capacity and whose production is not
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citetom. Čim je konkurencija u distribuciji
isključena, ovaj model takođe traži striktnu
kontrolu.
threatened by the new capacity. From the moment
the competition in the distribution is completely
eliminated, this model also requires strict control.
Model jednog kupca
Single Buyer Model
Jedan entitet je jedini kupac električne
energije u cijelom sistemu (najbolje je da to
bude nezavisni operator prenosa). On kupuje
električnu energiju od proizvođača na osnovu
bilateralnih ugovora ili na osnovu tenderskih
procedura. Prodaju takođe vrši jedan distribucijama i krajnjim potrošačima, pri čemu je
odgovoran za određivanje cijene i procedure
dispečinga. U ovom modelu konkurencija se
uvodi samo u proizvodnju putem pregovora između proizvođača, uvoznika i jedinog
kupca. Jedini kupac je nezavisan i regulisani
entitet, koje se nalazi uz „sistem operatora“ i
prenosnu monopolsku regulisanu kompaniju,
po pravilu, u državnom vlasništvu.
One entity is the single buyer of electric power
throughout the system (the best option is to have
an independent operator of transfer). It shall purchase the power from the producers on the basis of
bilateral agreements or on the basis of the bidding
procedures. The sale is also done by a single entity to the distributors and to end consumers with
the responsibility for pricing and dispatching procedures. In this model, competition is introduced
only in the production process via the negotiations
between the producers, importers and the single
buyer. Single buyer is an independent and regulated entity, positioned adjacent to the “System Operator” and the power transfer monopoly regulated
company, typically owned by the state.
Model zajedničkog prenosioca
Common Carrier (Transferor) Model
Ovaj model se naziva i tržišni model ili
„model pristupa“ i on je najliberalniji model.
U njegovoj čistoj formi konkurencija postoji
u svim fazama, osim prenosa koji ostaje regulisani monopol. Komercijalne i fizičke transakcije su odvojene. Trgovci igraju najvažniju
ulogu u optimiziranju upotrebe kapaciteta.
This model is called the market model or “approach model” and is the most liberal model. In
this case, the competition exists in its pure form
in all stages except the transfer, which remains a
regulated monopoly. Commercial and physical
transactions are separate. Dealers play the most
important role in optimizing the use of capacity.
Model otvorenog pristupa
Open Access Model
Proizvođači, distributeri i vertikalno integrisane kompanije dobijaju pravo na slobodan
pristup drugim mrežama van geografske monopolske teritorije gdje se preuzimanje vrši
na određenim tačkama predaje i preuzimanja.
Model podrazumijeva kupoprodajne odnose
na osnovu bilateralnih ugovora gdje su postojeće kompanije i dalje i prodavci i kupci, ali
su tu sada i drugi akteri. Model ruši geografske monopolske granice kompanija i podrazumjeva da distributeri mogu kupovati sada
od, ne samo monopolskog preduzeća, nego i
od nezavisnih proizvođača. Otvoreni pristup
trećim stranama ukida veleprodajni monopol
Producers, distributors and vertically integrated companies obtain rights to free access
to other networks outside the geographic monopoly territory where the takeover is done at
certain transfer - takeover points. The model
implies trade relations on the basis of bilateral
agreements where existing companies remain
to act as both sellers and buyers, but with
other companies present as well. The model
deletes the geographical boundaries of the
monopoly companies and means that dealers
may purchase not only from the monopolistic
enterprises , but from independent producers
as well. Open access to third parties abolishes
142
R. Stevanović: CONCEPT OF ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN AND ITS APPLICATION TO THE RESTRUCTURING...
koji ima jedini kupac i dopušta konkurenciju
u proizvodnji, veletrgovini i maloprodaji. Pristup prenosnoj i distributivnoj mreži u ovom
modelu može biti regulisan ili pregovaran.
Deregulacija može biti strukturalna ili formalna.
wholesale monopoly owned by a single buyer and allows competition in the production,
wholesale and retail trade. Access to transfer
and distribution network in this model can be
either regulated or negotiated. Deregulation
may be structural or formal.
„Pool“ model
„Pool“ Model
Pool model se organizuje kao kratkoročno
tržište električne energije, na polusatnoj ili satnoj osnovi za proizvođače, distributere i krajnje potrošače. Tržište u pool modelu funkcioniše na osnovu ponude i potražnje a može biti
modifikovano i bilateralnim ugovorima. Pool
model omogućava trgovinu na veliko putem
pool tržišta koje postaje regulisani monopol,
a omogućena je konkurencija u proizvodnji i
trgovini na malo. Ovakav model postaje primijenjen u Engleskoj i Velsu. Pool agregira
ponudu elektrana i dispečera na bazi marginalnih kapaciteta, odnosno doprinosa sistemu
pojedinačnih kapaciteta i projekcija tražnje.
Pool ustanovljava nadoknadu za prenos, usluge prenosa i garantovani kapacitet. U ovom
modelu sve faze u reprodukcionom ciklusu su
dezagregirane i organizovane u okviru nezavisnih, odvojenih kompanija. Ako je prisutna
potpuna informisanost i nezavisna regulacija,
Pool model vodi ka optimiziranju cjenovnog
mehanizma i ka povećanju efikasnosti.
Pool model is organized as a short-term
electric power market, on a half-hour or hourly basis to producers, distributors and end
users. Pool model market works on the basis
of supply and demand and can be modified
by bilateral agreements as well. Pool model
enables the wholesale trade through the pool
market which becomes a regulated monopoly
and enables competition in the production and
retail trade. This model is applied in England
and Wales. Pool aggregates bids of power
plants and dispatchers based on the marginal
capacity, i.e. the contribution to the system of
individual capacities and demand projections.
Pool establishes transfer compensation, transfer services and guaranteed capacity. In this
model, all phases of the reproductive cycle
are disaggregated and organized in independent, separate companies. If a complete awareness and independent regulation are existing,
Pool model leads to optimizing the pricing
mechanism and increasing the efficiency.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Posljednjih par decenija su karakteristične po intenzivnim promjenama vezanim za
funkcionisanje elektroprivreda, pogotovo
elektroprivreda zemalja u tranziciji. Promjene se prvenstveno odnose ne organizacionu
strukturu, strukturu vlasništva kao i na ekonomsku regulaciju u svjetskoj elektroprivredi. Navedene promjene karakteriše postepeni
prelazak sa potpuno vertikalno integrisanih
preduzeća ka preduzećima koja posluju u
konkurentskom okruženju.
Tradicionalni regionalni elektroprivredni monopoli, po svojoj formi, predstavljaju složene organizacione strukture i funkcionalno-divizione hibride.
The last few decades have been characterized by intense changes related to the operation of electric power utilities, particularly
of power utilities in transition countries. The
changes relate primarily to organisational
structure, ownership structure as well as to
the economic regulation of the power industry worldwide. The above changes are characterized by a gradual shift from fully vertically
integrated companies to companies operating
in a competitive environment.
Traditional regional electric power monopolies, in their form represent complex organisational structures and functional-division hybrids.
143
R. Stevanović: KONCEPT ORGANIZACIONOG DIZAJNA I NJEGOVA PRIMJENA U RESTRUKTURIRANJU...
Za elektroprivredno preduzeće je takođe
važno da postojeće kumulirano znanje sticano u dužem periodu, kroz drugačiji organizacioni redizajn, aktivira i učini djelotvornim u
novom okruženju i ambijentu poslovanja.
For power utility companies it is also important
to, through different organisational redesign, enable and make effective the existing knowledge
accumulated over a long period of time, in the
new environment and in business environment.
LITERATURA
LITERATURA
CPU. (2010). Izvještaj o politikama
energetskog sektora u Bosni i Hercegovini.
Centar za politike i upravljanje.
Filipović, S. & Tanić G. (2010). Izazovi
na tržištu energije. Ekonomski institut
Beograd,
Katić, N. & Strezoski, V. (2002). Uticaj
deregulacije
i
restruktuiranja
elektroprivrede na organizaciju i poslovanje
elektrodistributivnih preduzeća. Materijal
prezentovan 2002. na simpozijumu
Treće Jugoslovensko savetovanje o
elektrodistributivnim mrežama.
Petković, M. (2011). Organizaciono
ponašanje. Ekonomski fakultet Beograd.
Vukadinović, R. (2005). Osnovni pojmovi i
karakteristike pravnog sistema Evropske
unije. Pravni fakultet Beograd.
CPU. (2010). Report on Energy Sector Policy
in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Centar za
politike i upravljanje.
Filipović, S. & Tanić G. (2010). Energy
Market Challenges. Ekonomski institut
Beograd,
Katić, N. & Strezoski, V. (2002). The Impact
of Deregulation and Restructuring of the
Electric Power Utility on the Organisation
and Operation of Power Distribution
Companies. Paper presented at the 2002
on Treće Jugoslovensko savetovanje o
elektrodistributivnim mrežama.
Petković, M. (2011). Organisational
Behaviour. Ekonomski fakultet Beograd.
Vukadinović, R. (2005). Basic Terms and
Specifications of the Legal System of the
European Union. Pravni fakultet Beograd.
144
FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - FINANCE AND BANKING
KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
Suzana Simić, master ekonomista
Oikos institut-Istraživački centar Bijeljina
Oikos institut-Research Centre Bijeljina
Stručni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402003S, UDK 336.763:336.781.5
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Osnovni cilj autora ovog rada je da analizira
uticaj finansijske krize na novčano tržište evrozone. Dobro uređeno i efikasno tržište novca
je od krucijalnog značaja za održavanje likvidnosti banaka. Koliki značaj ima međubankrasko tržište može se vidjeti u periodu krize kada
je, zbog nestabilnih uslova privređivanja, došlo do nedostatka novčanih sredstava.
U radu je, najprije, predstavljeno kretanje
dnevne referentne kamatne stope za pozajmice
na Londonskom međubankarskom tržištu, njegovo poređenje kroz vrijeme pri čemu je ukazano na moguće manipulacije na tržištu novca.
Potom se razmatra indikator stresa na međubankarskom tržištu, prikazan putem kretanja
kamatnih stopa koje se primjenjuju u zoni evra.
Posebna pažnja usmjerena je na ulogu i značaj
referentne kamatne stope za dinarska sredstva
na srpskom međubankarskom tržištu. U posljednjem dijelu su analizirana i prikazana kretanja
svih prethodno navedenih kamatnih stopa na
međubankarske pozajmice (LIBOR, EURIBOR,
BELIBOR i BEONIA) za vrijeme krize kako bi se
utvrdilo koliko su međubankarske pozajmice zaista doprinijele razvoju međubankarskog tržišta.
The primary objective of the present study
was to analyze the impact of the financial crisis in the euro area money market. Well regulated and efficient money market is crucial for
the maintenance of liquidity. The importance
of a interbank market can be seen in the crisis period when, because of the unstable economic conditions, there was a lack of fund.
In this paper, first, presents the movement
of daily reference rate for loans in the London interbank market, its comparison with the
time indicated on the possible manipulation
of the money markets. Then consider an indicator of stress in the interbank market, shown
by movements in interest rates that apply in
the euro zone. Special attention is paid to the
role and importance of the reference rate for
the Serbian dinar funds interbank market. In
the last section have been analyzed and the
movement of all the abovementioned interest
rates on interbank loans (LIBOR, EURIBOR,
BELIBOR and BEONIA) during the crisi, in
order to determine how the interbank lending
actually contributed to the development of the
interbank market.
Ključne riječi: međubankarsko tržište,
bankarski sistem, kamatne stope, libor,
euribor, belibor, beonia.
Keywords: interbank market, banking
system, interest rate, Libor, Euribor, Belibor,
Beonia.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Činjenica je da su međubankarska tržišta veoma važna kako bi banke mogle djelovati kao posrednici. Tako tržište međubankarskih pozajmica
dozvoljava da neke banke pozajmljuju novac od
The fact that the interbank market is very
important for banks to act as intermediaries. So the market of interbank loans allow some banks borrow money from oth145
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
drugih banaka kako bi podmirile dnevne potrebe
za likvidnošću. Kao i bilo koji drugi zajam, i ovaj
se nudi uz određenu kamatnu stopu, međubankarsku stopu, prema kojoj dužnik mora da isplati
davaocu zajma određeni dodatni novac. Svakog
dana, povjerioci i dužnici, uz međusobno povjerenje, određuju prosječnu kamatnu stopu koja zavisi od njihovog finansijskog stanja.
Imajući u vidu da je takva kamatna stopa određena od strane banaka panela, logično je pretpostaviti da ona odražava njihovu sopstvenu percepciju kreditnog rizika i rizika likvidnosti. Prema
tome, ukoliko je banka u lošem stanju, moraće
da dâ procjenu najveće kamatne stope prilikom
pozajmice; ako dobro posluje, njen interes da pozajmljuje će biti manji. Na taj način, može se očekivati da prosječna kamatna stopa na međubankarske pozajmice bude niska i stabilna u dobrim
vremenima i viša u trenucima finansijske krize.
Postoji nekoliko razloga zašto banke preferiraju kreditiranje na međubankarskom tržištu. Prije svega, Evropska centralna banka
(ECB) tradicionalno prihvata samo ograničen
obim osiguranja i samo komercijalne banke
mogu da se zadužuju po svojoj diskontnoj
stopi. Međutim, međubankarska tržišta prihvataju širi opseg kolaterala i otvorena su
za finansijske institucije kao što su brokeri i
investicione banke. U takvoj situaciji banke
najčešće pozajmljuju novac po kamatnoj stopi
koja je obično niža od stope koju nudi ECB.
Međubankarska tržišta se karakterišu kao
nepotpuna tržišta i djeluju pod tzv. „asimetričnim informacijama“, jer su neke strane
bolje informisane od drugih. To je presudno
za funkcionisanje međubankarskih tržišta, jer
nedorečenost dovodi do neefikasnog pružanja
likvidnosti i smanjuje mogućnost zaštite od
rizika likvidnosti. Asimetrija informacija bi u
isto vrijeme potencijalno mogla da dovede do
negativne selekcije i moralnog hazarda, što
bi moglo prouzrokovati dalje poremećaje na
međubankarskom tržištu.
Stoga, prekonoćno međubankarsko tržište ima
najmanje dvije ključne uloge u savremenim finansijskim sistemima. Prva je da putem ovih tržišta
centralne banke aktivno intervenišu i tako vode
svoju politiku kamatnih stopa. Druga, i najvažnija,
146
er banks to settle the daily liquidity needs.
Like any other loan, and this is nud with a
certain interest rate, the interbank rate, by
which the borrower has to repay the lending
some extra money. Every day creditors and
debtors, with mutual trust, determine the
average interest rate that depends on their
financial situation.
Bearing in mind that such interest rate set
by the banks of the panel, it is logical to assume that it reflects their own perception of
credit risk and liquidity risk. Thus, if a bank
is in poor condition, will have to assess the
highest interest rates in loans; if doing well,
her interest in lending will be lower. In this
way, it can be expected that the average interest rate on interbank loans is low and stable in
good times and higher moments of the financial crisis.
There are several reasons why banks prefer
to lend in the interbank market. First of all,
the European Central Bank (ECB) traditionally accept only a limited range of insurance
and only commercial banks can borrow at its
discount rate. However, the interbank market
to accept a wider range of collateral and are
open to financial institutions such as brokers
and investment banks. In such a situation,
banks usually borrow money at an interest
rate that is usually lower than the rate offered
by the ECB.
The interbank market is characterized as
incomplete markets and operate under the
so-called „asymmetric information“, because
some parties better informed than others. It
is crucial for the functioning of the interbank
market, because vagueness leads to inefficient provision of liquidity and reduces the
possibility of protection against liquidity risk.
Asymmetry of information at the same time
could potentially lead to adverse selection
and moral hazard, which could cause further
disruption in the interbank market.
Therefore, the overnight interbank market
has at least two key roles in modernfinancial
systems. The first is that through the new markets of Central Bank actively intervene and
thus run their interest rate policy. Second, and
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
jeste da međubankarska tržišta koja dobro funkcionišu preusmjeravaju likvidna sredstva od institucija sa viškom novčanih sredstava prema onim
finansijskim institutcijama kojima su ta sredstva
neophodna, dopuštajući i ostvarujući na taj način
veću efikasnost finansijskog posredovanja.
Dakle, tvorci monetarne politike imaju interes
za dobrim funkcionisanjem finansijskog sistema i
snažnim međubankarskim prekonoćnim tržištem
sa kojim centralne banke mogu postići željenu
kamatnu stopu i na taj način omogućiti institucijama da efikasnije trguju likvidnošću. Većina tih
sredstava pozajmljivanja ima prekonoćno dospijeće, što ukazuje na to da: (1) kamatne stope
na ovom tržištu predstavljaju sidro vremenskih
struktura kamatnih stopa, (2) centralne banke
imaju za cilj da stabiliziju i upravljaju deviznim
rezervama putem operacija na otvorenom tržištu ili trajno raspoloživim mogućnostima i da je
(3) značajan iznos transakcija na ovom tržištu
neosiguran. Na ovaj način sve banke, uključujući i one koje ne posjeduju dovoljna osiguranja ili
nisu u mogućnosti da dobiju likvidnost u nedeljnim aukcijama, mogu zadovoljiti svoje potrebe
za likvidnošću. Osim što se trasankcije na ovom
tržištu odvijaju “over-the-counter’’ ili OTC tržištu, prekonoćno tržište odlikuje se i elektronskom centralizovanom platformom.
most important, is that the interbank market
that work well diverted liquid assets of institutions with surplus funds to those financial
institution where the funds are needed, allowing and thus confirming higher efficiency of
financial intermediation.
Therefore, monetary policy makers have
an interest for the good functioning of the
financial system and strong interbank overnight market to which the central bank can
achieve the desired interest rate and thus enable institutions to more effectively trade liquidity. Most of these funds is the overnight
lending maturities, which indicates that:
(1) interest rates in this market are the anchor
of time structure of interest rates, (2) the central bank aims to stabilize and manage the foreign reserves through operations in the openmarket or permanently available resources
and that (3) a significant amount of transactions in thisuninsured market. In this way all
banks, including those that do not have sufficient insurance or are unable to obtain liquidity at weekly auctions, can meet its liquidity
needs. In addition to the transactions in this
market place “over-the-counter“ or OTC
market, overnight market is characterized by
electronic and centralized platform.
LIBOR
LIBOR
Referentna kamatna stopa predstavlja reper za
sve kamatne stope na novčanom tržištu, odnosno koridor kamatnih stopa. To je najviša, odnosno najniža kamatna stopa koju Narodna banka
Srbije primjenjuje u postupku sprovođenja repo
transakcija prodaje, odnosno kupovine hartija
od vrijednosti. Trenutno postoji nekoliko referentnih kamatnih stopa koje igraju važnu ulogu
u olakšavanju funkcionisanja jedinstvenog i integrisanog evropskog tržišta novca i služi kao
osnova pri zaključivanju kamatnih stopa ugovora. Najpoznatija među njima je svakako libor
(Furtula, 2008, str. 72). Potreba za uvođenjem
libor-a nastala je osamdesetih godina prošlog
vijeka kada je sve veći broj banaka počeo aktivno da trguje relativno novim finansijskim instrumentima kao što su svopovi, opcije i termin-
The reference rate is the benchmark for all
interest rates in the money market or interest
rate corridor. It is the highest or lowest interest rate that the National Bank of Serbia shall
apply in the implementation of repo transactions sale or purchase of securities paper.
There are currently several benchmark interest rates play an important role in facilitating
the functioning of the single and integrated
European money markets and serve as a basis for concluding interest rate contracts. The
most famous among them is sure to Libor
(Furtula, 2008, p. 72). The need for the introduction of Libor emerged in the eighties of
the last century when a growing number of
banks started actively traded relatively new
financial instruments such as swaps, options
147
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
ski ugovori. Novi instrumenti su u velikoj mjeri
povećali obim poslovanja na Londonskom međubankarskom tržištu, i bilo je potrebno uvesti
reper za stope na pozajmice, kao cijenu novih
finansijskih „proizvoda“ – svopova i opcija.
U oktobru 1984. godine, Britanska Bankarska
Asocijacija (BBA) je u saradnji sa Centralnom
bankom Engleske formirala nekoliko radnih
grupa, čiji rad je rezultirao stvaranjem BBA
standarda za kamatne stope na svopove. Dio
ovog standarda se odnosio i na fiksiranje kamatnih stopa za poravnanje, što je predstavljalo preteču današnjeg libor-a.
and forward contracts. New instruments have
greatly increased the volume of business in
the London interbank market, and it was necessary to introduce a benchmark for rates on
loans, as the price of new financial “products
“ - swaps and options. In October 1984 the
British Bankers’ Association (BBA) in cooperation with the Bank of England has formed
several working groups, whose work has resulted in the creation of BBA standard for interest rates swaps. Part of this standard apply
also to fix the interest rate for the settlement,
which was the forerunner of today’s Libor.
Pojam i značaj libor-a
The concept and importance of Libor
Libor predstavlja dnevnu referentnu kamatnu stopu po kojoj banke jedna drugoj nude
novac za pozajmljivanje na Londonskom međubankarskom tržištu. Postoji 150 različitih libor kamatnih stopa s obzirom na to da se libor
izračunava za 15 različitih rokova dospijeća
i za 10 različitih valuta. Rokovi dospijeća za
koje se libor izračunava su: 1 dan (prekonoćne
kamatne stope), 1 nedelja, 2 nedelje, 1 mjesec,
2 mjeseca, 3 mjeseca, 4 mjeseca, 5 mjeseci, 6
mjeseci, 7 mjeseci, 8 mjeseci, 9 mjeseci, 10
mjeseci, 11 mjeseci, 12 mjeseci. Libor kamatna stopa se računa za sljedećih deset valuta:
američki dolar (USD LIBOR), australijski dolar (AUD LIBOR), britanska funta sterlinga
(GBP LIBOR), kanadski dolar (CAD LIBOR),
danska kruna (DKK LIBOR), evropski euro
(EUR LIBOR), japanski jen (YPI LIBOR),
novozelandski dolar (NZD LIBOR), švedska
kruna (SEK LIBOR) i švajcarski franak (CHF
LIBOR) (Ellis & Campana, 2013, str. 2).
Zvanične kamatne stope objavljuje jednom
dnevno agencija „Tomson Rojters“1, u 11:45 po
londonskom vremenu, u ime Britanske Bankarske Asocijacije (BBA). Bez zvanične dozvole
BBA nijedna kompanija ne može da objavljuje
ili koristi zvanične libor kamatne stope na svom
web sajtu, ili da ih koristi u komercijalne svrhe.
Libor is a daily reference rate of interest
at which banks offer to each other to borrow money in the London interbank market.
There are 150 different Libor rates given that
Libor is calculated for 15 different maturities
and in 10 different currencies. Maturities for
which Libor is calculated as: 1 day (overnight
interest rate), 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month, 2
months, 3 months, 4 months, 5 months, 6
months, 7 months, 8 months, 9 months, 10
months, 11 months, 12 months. Libor interest
rate is calculated for the next ten currencies:
the U.S. dollar (USD LIBOR), Australian
dollar (AUD LIBOR), the British pound sterling (GBP LIBOR), Canadian dollar (CAD
LIBOR), Danish krone (DKK LIBOR), European Euro (EUR LIBOR), Japanese yen (YPI
LIBOR), the New Zealand dollar (NZD LIBOR), the Swedish krona (SEK LIBOR) and
Swiss franc (CHF LIBOR) (Ellis & Campana
2013, p. 2).
Official interest rates publishes a daily agency „Thomson Reuters“1, at 11:45 am, London
time, on behalf of the British Bankers’ Association (BBA). Without official permission
BBA no one company can not publish or use
the official Libor interest rates on your web
site or use them for commercial purposes.
1 Vodeća svjetska agencija u oblasti finansijskog izvještavanja osnovana je 1850. godine. Pored finansija, agencija
Rojters poznata je i po tome što je uvijek prva donosila
najnovije vijesti, pa je tako 1857. godine postala vodeća
svjetska novinska agencija u oblasti informisanja.
1 The world’s leading agency in the field of financial
reporting established in 1850. In addition to finance,
Reuters is also known for being the first ever bringing the latest news, and so in 1857 became the world’s
leading news agency in the field of information.
148
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
BBA nudi sedam različitih tipova licenci za korišćenje sadašnjih ili istorijskih podataka o kamatnim stopama, u zavisnosti od potreba korisnika
(global-rates.com, 2013).
Polazeći od definicije libor-a, po kojoj je
to prosječna kamatna stopa po kojoj grupa
izabranih banaka jedna drugoj pozajmljuje
sredstva, dolazi se do pojma „panel banaka“.
Panel se sastoji od najmanje 8 banaka, a najviše 18 banaka saradnika za svaku valutu za
koju se obračunava libor. Banke članice panela bira BBA u saradnji sa Komitetom za devizno tržište i tržište novca (FX&MMC) svake
godine, na osnovu sljedećih kriterijuma: (1)
skala tržišne aktivnosti, (2) reputacija banke
i (3) ekspertiza za poslovanje sa datom valutom (BBA libor, 2012).
Svakih šest mjeseci Komitet za devizno tržište i tržište novca (FX&MMC) procjenjuje svaki panel na osnovu revizije saradnika BBA. Na
osnovu procjene se utvrđuje da li banke članice
i dalje zadovoljavaju navedene kriterijume i da
li na osnovu toga mogu da doprinesu reperu.
Računanje libor kamatnih stopa se ne zasniva na stvarnim transakcijama. Svakog radnog
dana oko 11 časova po londonskom vremenu
svaka članica Panela obavještava „Tomson
Rojters“ po kojoj kamatnoj stopi (za svaki rok
dospijeća), ona očekuje da će moći pozajmiti
novčana sredstva na međubankarskom tržištu
u tom trenutku. Razlog zbog koga se libor ne
računa na osnovu stvarnih transakcija jeste što
neće svaka banka pozajmljivati sredstva na
međubankarskom tržištu za svaki rok dospijeća. Kada „Tomson Rojters“ prikupi podatke o
kamatnim stopama svih Panela, 25% najnižih
i najviših vrijednosti se eliminiše. Prosjek se
računa od preostalih 50% srednjih vrijednosti
i na taj način se dolazi do zvaničnog libor-a
(global-rates.com, 2013).
Libor je najznačajniji reper za kratkoročne
pozajmice u svijetu. Na finansijskim tržištima se koristi kao referentna kamatna stopa
za veliki broj finansijskih instrumenata kao
što su fjučersi, opcije i svopovi. Pored toga,
banke koriste libor kao osnovu za utvrđivanje kamatnih stopa za kredite, štednju i hipotekarne kredite. Činjenica da se libor koristi
BBA offers seven different types of licenses
for the use of current and historical data on
interest rates, depending on the needs of users
(global-rates.com, 2013).
Starting from the definition of Libor, at which
it is the average interest rate at which a group
of selected banks lend funds to each other, we
come to the term „panel banks“. The panel consists of at least eight banks, and more than 18
associate banks for each currency for which Libor is calculated. Bank member panel choose
BBA in cooperation with the Committee for the
foreign exchange market and the money market
(FX & MMC) each year, based on the following
criteria: (1) the scale of market activity, (2) reputation of the bank and (3) expertise in business
with a given currency (BBA libor, 2012).
Every six months the Committee on the
foreign exchange market and the money
market (FX&MMC) evaluates each panel on
the audit staff BBA. Based on an assessment
to determine whether member banks continue to meet these criteria and that on that basis can contribute to the rapper. Calculating
the Libor interest rate is not based on actual
transactions. Every day around 11 am, London time, each member of the Panel shall
inform the „Thomson Reuters“ on which the
interest rate (for each maturity), it is expected
that they will be able to borrow funds on the
interbank market at the moment. The reason
for the Libor not calculated on the basis of
actual transactions is that each bank will not
lend funds in the interbank market for each
maturity. When „Thomson Reuters“ collect
data ofthe interest rates of the Panel, 25% of
the lowest and highest values are eliminated.
Average counts of the remaining 50% of the
mean values and thus leads to the official Libor (global-rates.com, 2013).
Libor is the most important benchmark
for short term loans in the world. Financial markets are used as a benchmark rate
for a large number of financial instruments
such as futures, options and swaps. In addition, banks use Libor as the basis for determining interest rates on loans, savings and
mortgage loans. The fact that Libor is used
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S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
kao referentna kamatna stopa za brojne finansijske proizvode je i razlog zbog koga se
sa interesovanjem prati kretanje ove kamatne stope od strane velikog broja stručnjaka
ali i pojedinaca.
as a reference rate of interest for a number
of financial products is the reason why the
interest follows the movement of interest
rates by a large number of professionals and
individuals.
Komparativni prikaz libor-a prije i poslije
ekonomske krize
Comparative overview of Libor before and
after the economic crisis
Na osnovu analize kretanja tromjesečnih
kamatnih stopa na međubankarske pozajmice (libor), u periodu prije i poslije ekonomske
krize čiji se začeci naziru polovinom 2007.
godine, izveden je sljedeći grafički prikaz:
Based on an analysis of quarterly movements
in interest rates on interbank loans (Libor), for
the period before and after the economic crisis
whose beginnings are visible in mid 2007, was
staged the following graphical representation:
Grafikon 1. Kretanje libor-a (global-rates.com, 2012)
Graph 1. Libor trend (global-rates.com, 2012)
Prema podacima iz grafikona se vidi da je
do novembra 2008. godine libor imao oscilacije u kretanju sa tendencijom rasta od 2,8%
do 3,8%, s obzirom na to da je kriza pokazala
prve znake već u 2007. godini. Međutim, u
septembru 2008. godine dolazi do naglog rasta libor-a na nivo preko 3,5%, jer je 15. septembra „Lehman brothers“2 doživio krah, što
je dovelo do porasta rizika na tržištu. Banke
nisu željele da pozajmljuju novac na međubankarskom tržištu usljed velike nestabilnosti. Nakon prvog šoka, situacija se stabilizuje,
opada nivo kamatne stope, koji ima ujednačen nivo od 0,5% u periodu od septembra
2010. do jula 2011. godine. To nam govori da
According to the graph, you can see that
until November 2008 Libor had fluctuations
in the movement with a tendency to increase
from 2,8% to 3,8%, due to the fact that the
crisis has shown the first signs in 2007. However, in September 2008 comes to a sudden
increase in Libor levels over 3,5%, since 15.
September „Lehman Brothers“2 suffered a
meltdown, which led to an increase in risk
in the market. Banks were reluctant to lend
money in the interbank market due to high
volatility. After the initial shock, the situation
has stabilized, decreasing the level of interest rates, which have a uniform level of 0,5%
from September 2010 to July 2011. This tells
2 Američka finansijska korporacija koja je u raznim
oblicima postojala između 1850. i 2008. godine i čiji
bankrot se često smatra početkom najduže svjetske recesije modernog doba.
2 American Financial Corporation, which has existed
in various forms between the 1850 and the 2008 year
and whose bankruptcy is often considered the beginning of the longest global recession of modern times.
150
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
je došlo do povećanja transakcija, odnosno do
rasta prometa na međubankarskom tržištu i
smanjenja rizika. Libor ponovo počinje da raste od septembra 2011. godine, kao posljedica
novih previranja u svetskoj ekonomiji i krize
evrozone.
Uzimajući u obzir značaj koji libor ima,
način njegovog računanja je iznenađujuće
„klimav“, prema mišljenju nekih stručnjaka.
Naime, povraćaj 360 biliona $ (što predstavlja petostruki globalni GDP) iz finansijskih
ugovora koji se zasnivaju na libor-u zavisi od
očekivanja koje banke imaju u pogledu visine
kamatnih stopa, a ne na opipljivim podacima.
U vrijeme kreditne krize učestale su tvrdnje
da libor više ne odražava stvarne prilike na tržištu, pa su regulatorna tijela odlučila da istraže da li su trgovci u bankama pokušali uticati
na pad, odnosno rast kamata kako bi zaradili
na špekulacijama njihovim kretanjem. Banka
za međunarodna poravnanja je 2008. godine
sprovela studiju na osnovu koje je uočila da
su u pojedinim danima finansijski rizici naglo porasli, ali se to nije desilo sa kamatnim
stopama. Uzimajući u obzir da kamatne stope
na kredite zavise od kreditnog rizika i da se
kreću u istom smjeru, ovakav nelogičan trend
je naveo regulatorne organe na sumnju u pogledu manipulacije sa utvrđivanjem libora.
Banke čiji su stvarni troškovi pozajmljivanja
visoki, ne žele da se vode kao visoko rizične
banke kod svojih povjerilaca. Takođe, banke
čije su obaveze više vezane za libor nego što
je aktiva, žele da putem snižavanja stope libor-a povećaju svoj profit, jer će rashodi kamata pasti ispod prihoda od kamata. Američki
i evropski tržišni regulatori u okviru istrage
o navodnim manipulacijama kamatom za međubankarske pozajmice (libor) u periodu od
2005. do 2011. godine zatražili su od Deutch
banke da im dostavi dokumente i informacije. Zahtjeve su uputili američko Ministarstvo
pravosuđa, američka Komisija za hartije od
vrijednosti i tržišta (SEC), Komisija za trgovinu terminskim ugovorima za isporuku roba
i Evropska komisija. Pred američkim saveznim sudovima pokrenut je i niz građanskih
parnica u kojima je Deutch banka optužena
us that there has been an increase in the transaction, or an increase in turnover in the interbank market and reduce risk. Libor starts to
grow again in September 2011 as a result of
new turmoil in the global economy and the
eurozone crisis.
Taking into account the importance of Libor is, the manner of its computation is amazing „shaky“, according to some experts. The
return of $360 billion (which represents five
times the global GDP) in the financial contracts that are based on Libor on expectations
that banks have in terms of interest rates,
rather than on tangible data. During the credit
crisis, there are frequent allegations that Libor does not reflect the real situation on the
market, and the regulatory authorities decided
to investigate whether traders at banks tried
to influence the fall, and rise to the interest
earned on speculation their movement. Bank
for International Settlements is the 2008 study
conducted on the basis that he noticed that on
some days the financial risks have increased
sharply, but that did not happen with interest
rates. Considering that interest rates on loans
depend on credit risk and to move in the same
direction, this irrational trend noted regulatory authorities on suspicion of manipulation
with respect to the determination of Libor.
Banks whose actual cost of borrowing is high
not want to be listed as high- risk banks with
their creditors. Also, the banks whose liabilities are more related to Libor than assets,
they want it by lowering the rate of Libor increase their profit, because interest expenses
fall below the interest income. American and
European market regulators as part of an investigation into alleged manipulation of interbank lending interest rate (Libor) for the period from 2005 to 2011 requested by Deutsche
Bank to provide them with documents and information. Requests are sent by the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Commission on
Securities and Markets (SEC), the Commission for trading futures contracts for delivery
of goods and the European Commission. In a
U.S. federal court launched a series of civil
lawsuits in which Deutsche Bank accused of
151
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
da je manipulisala libor-om za dolarske pozajmice i cijenama izvedenih finansijskih proizvoda koji su zasnovani na libor-u. Teorijski,
pojedinačna banka ne bi trebalo da ima uticaj na libor. Međutim, u vrijeme krize niko
ne želi da se izdvaja „iz gomile“. Sve banke
pod dejstvom pritiska u sistemu mogu biti u
iskušenju da podnose vještački niske procjene kamatnih stopa na osnovu kojih se računa
libor (Horne & Wachowicz, 2005, str. 241).
manipulating Libor included for dollar loans
and prices of derivative financial products
that are based on Libor. Theoretically, a single bank should not have an impact on Libor.
However, in times of crisis no one wants to
stand out “from the crowd”. All banks under
pressure in the system may be tempted to submit artificially low estimates of the interest
rate on which is calculated Libor (Horne &
Wachowicz, 2005, p. 241).
EURIBOR – EONIA
EURIBOR – EONIA
Euribor je međubankarska referentna kamatna
stopa koja se primjenjuje u zoni evra. Utvrđuje
ga Evropska bankarska federacija i Asocijacija
za finansijska tržišta. Izračunava se kao prosjek
kamatnih stopa u okviru panela prvoklasnih banaka koje nude sredstva na određen period, a
objavljuje se svakog radnog dana u Briselu te
se primjenjuje dva radna dana od dana objavljivanja. U zavisnosti od ročnosti ponuđenih
sredstava razlikuju se nedeljni, dvonedeljni, tronedeljni, mjesečni, tromjesečni i šestomjesečni
euribor. Frekvencija promjene (ažuriranja) ove
kamatne stope određuje frekvenciju izmjene
ukupne nominalne kamatne stope. Euribor se
određuju u zavisnosti od ponude i tražnje za
novcem, tako da određuje cijenu eura na međubankarskom tržištu. Euribor utiče na kredite
banaka, tj. na njihove kamate na sljedeći način:
visina euribor-a utiče na nivo kamatnih stopa
kredita indeksiranih u eurima. S obzirom na to
da su stambeni krediti po pravilu dugoročni,
banke nude opciju vezivanja varijabilne kamatne stope za vrijednost euribor-a. Za stambene
kredite indeksirane u eurima banke, uglavnom,
koriste tromjesečni ili šestomjesečni euribor
čiju vrijednost usklađuju sa kretanjem na međunarodnom tržištu, tromjesečno ili polugodišnje,
čime se mijenja i kamatna stopa koja se obračunava na stambene kredite (Aikin, 2012, str. 17).
Kretanje euribor-a se ne može predvidjeti, ali je
korisno njegovo redovno praćenje kao i upoređivanje sa prethodnim periodom kako bi se stvorila bolja
slika. Pregled istorijskih podataka kada je u pitanju
kretanje euribora u periodu od 2008. godine do aprila 2012. godine prikazan je na sljedećem grafikonu.
Euribor is the interbank reference interest
rate applicable in the euro zone. It determined
by the European Banking Federation and the
Association for Financial Markets. It is calculated as the average of the interest rates in
the panel by first class banks offering funds
for a certain period, and is published every
working day in Brussels and apply two business days from the date of publication. Depending on the maturity of the offered funds
1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, monthly, quarterly and six-month Euribor. Frequency change
(update) the interest rate is determined by the
frequency changes with a nominal interest
rate. Euribor shall be determined depending
on the supply and demand for money, so it
determines the price of the euro on the interbank market. Euribor affects bank loans, their
interest as follows: Euribor affect the level of
interest rate loans indexed in EUR. Given that
the mortgage loans typically long-term, banks
offer the option of binding a variable interest
rate for the value of Euribor. For mortgage
loans in euros banks, generally, use a threemonth or six-month Euribor whose values
align with developments in the international market, quarterly or semiannual, which
changes the rate of interest payable on housing loans (Aikin, 2012, p. 17).
Euribor trend can not be predicted, but it is
useful to its regular monitoring and comparison with the previous period in order to create
a better image. Review of historical data when
it comes to moving Euribor in the period from
2008 to April 2012 shown in the graph below.
152
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
6
5
4
3
2
1.4.2012
1.1.2012
1.10.2011
1.7.2011
1.4.2011
1.1.2011
1.10.2010
1.7.2010
1.4.2010
1.1.2010
1.10.2009
1.7.2009
1.4.2009
1.1.2009
1.10.2008
1.7.2008
0
1.4.2008
1
Grafikon 2. Kretanje euribor-a (euribor-rates.eu, 2012)
Graph 2. Euribor trend (euribor-rates.eu, 2012)
Na prikazanom grafikonu može se vidjeti
da euribor raste do oktobra 2008. godine kada
dostiže najvišu vrijednost od preko 5%, nakon čega se bilježi konstantan pad sve do jula
2010. godine kada dostiže najnižu vrijednost
od oko 0,8%. To znači da se međubankarsko
tržište stabilizovalo nakon perioda krize. Od
jula 2010. do oktobra 2011. godine ponovo se
bilježi blagi rast u vrijednosti od preko 1%,
što je posljedica krize u Grčkoj. Nakon preduzetih mjera u vezi sa rješavanjem krize,
euribor se stabilizuje početkom 2012. godine.
Eonia kao prekonoćna kamatna stopa za eure,
izračunava se kao ponderisani prosjek svih prekonoćnih pozajmica na međubankarskom tržištu od strane banaka Panela evro zone.
In the displayed graph can be seen that the
Euribor growth to October 2008 when reaching
the peak value of more than 5%, after which he
recorded a continuing decline until July 2010,
when reaching the lowest value of about 0,8%.
This means that the interbank market has stabilized after a period of crisis. From July 2010 to
October 2011 again there is a slight increase in
value of more than 1%, as a result of the crisis
in Greece. After the measures taken in connection with the resolution of the crisis, Euribor
stabilize in early 2012.
Eonia overnight interest rate for the euro,
calculated as a weighted average of all overnight loans in the interbank market by the
panel of euro zone banks.
Grafikon 3. Kretanje Euribor-Eonia svop
spreda (Angeloni & Wolf, 2012)
Graph 3. Euribor trend - Eonia swap spread
(Angeloni & Wolf, 2012)
153
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
Grafikon pokazuje kretanje Euribor-Eonia
svop spreda, indikatora stresa na međubankarskom tržištu od 2007. godine do 2012.
godine. Prvi rast je zabilježen septembra
2007. godine kada se u svjetskoj ekonomiji
uočavaju naznake predstojeće krize. Najveća
vrijednost spreda se bilježi u periodu od jula
do novembra 2008. godine kada je kriza bila
na vrhuncu. Nakon toga se bilježi nagli pad
i relativno stabilno kretanje spreda u periodu
od januara 2009. godine do septembra 2011.
Krajem septembra 2011. ponovo se bilježi vrhunac i rast nivoa stresa na međubankarskom
tržištu do kraja decembra. Od kraja decembra
spred je znatno smanjen, što može biti povezano sa dugoročnim operacijama refinansiranja koje sprovodi Evropska centralna banka
(ECB) kako bi obezbijedila likvidnost banaka
i tako osigurala njihovo finansiranje.
Dugoročne operacije refinansiranja (LTRO)
postoje godinama u evro zoni, ali ih je Evropska centralna banka pokrenula u novom obliku
kako bi riješila problem dužničke krize. One
označavaju pozajmice ECB po veoma niskim
kamatnim stopama bankama članicama evro
zone, što je dovelo do pojave izraza „jeftin
novac“. Injekcija jeftinog novca omogućava
bankama da ga koriste za kupovinu sredstava sa visokim prinosima i tako ostvare profit,
ili da pozajmljuju više sredstava stanovništvu
i privredi, te na taj način stimuliše privredni
rast (Komazec, Gligić & Ristić, 2012, str. 76).
The graph shows the trend of Euribor - Eonia
swap spread, indicators of stress in the interbank market from 2007 to 2012. The first increase was recorded in September 2007 when
the world economy observed signs of impending crisis. The greatest value of the front is recorded for the period from July to November
2008 when the crisis was at its peak. After that,
a sudden drop and a relatively stable trend of
spread, for the period from January 2009 to
September 2011. At the end of September 2011
repeatedly the recorded peak and increase in
the level of stress in the interbank market by
the end of December. Since the end of December, the spread is significantly reduced, which
may be associated with long-term refinancing
operations conducted by the European Central
Bank (ECB) to ensure bank liquidity and thus
ensure their funding.
Long-term refinancing operations (LTRO)
there are years in the euro zone, but the European Central Bank launched in a new form in
order to solve the problem of the debt crisis.
They indicate the ECB loans at very low interest rates member banks of the euro zone,
which has led to the emergence of the term
„cheap money“. The injection of cheap money to banks that use it to buy assets with high
returns and thus make a profit, or to borrow
more money to households and businesses,
thereby stimulating economic growth (Komazec, Gligić & Ristić, 2012, p. 76).
KAMATNA STOPA NA DINARSKE
POZAJMICE I PREKONOĆNA STOPA
INTEREST RATES ON DINAR LOANS
AND OVERNIGHT RATE
Referentna kamatna stopa
The reference interest rate
U nastavku bi se moglo izdvojiti nekoliko
vrsta referentnih stopa koje utiču na uslove kamatnih stopa za kredite banaka. Jedan
od faktora koji utiče na promjenu uslova dinarskih kredita je referentna kamatna stopa
Narodne banke Srbije. Referentna kamatna
stopa u monetarnoj politici ima ulogu signalizirajuće kamante stope ili polazne kamatne
stope na osnovu čije visine se određuje i visina kamatnih stopa na kredite banaka. Refe-
The following could be set aside several
types of reference rates that affect the conditions of interest rates for bank loans. One
of the factors that affect the change in terms
of local currency loans the reference interest rate of the National Bank of Serbia. The
reference interest rate in the monetary policy
has a role signaling interest rates or initial interest rate based on the amount of which is
determined and the level of interest rates on
154
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
rentna kamatna stopa Narodne banke Srbije
je polazna kamatna stopa na osnovu koje se
utvrđuju visine kamatnih stopa za operacije
na novčanom tržištu. Ona je najviša, odnosno
najniža kamatna stopa koju Narodna banka
Srbije primjenjuje u postupku sprovođenja
repo transakcija prodaje, odnosno kupovine
hartija od vrijednosti sa ročnošću od 12 do 16
dana. Kamatna stopa na depozitne olakšice
Narodne banke Srbije je prekonoćna kamatna stopa za deponovanje viškova likvidnih
sredstava banaka kod Narodne banke Srbije.
Izračunava se tako što se Referentna kamatna stopa Narodne banke Srbije umanji za 2,5
procentna poena (Vunjak, 2008, str. 230).
Na sljedećem grafikonu se može vidjeti pregled kretanja referentne kamatne stope Narodne banke Srbije (NBS) za period od 2007.
do 2011. godine.
bank loans. The reference interest rate of the
National Bank of Serbia is starting interest rate
on the basis of which is determined by the interest rate for money market operations. It is
the highest or lowest interest rate applied by
the National Bank of Serbia, shall apply in the
implementation of repo transactions of sale or
purchase of securities with a maturity of 12 to
16 days. The interest rate on the deposit facility
of the National Bank of Serbia is the overnight
interest rate for depositing excess liquidity
with the National Bank of Serbia. It is calculated by dividing the reference interest rate of
the National Bank of Serbia decrease by 2,5
percentage points (Vunjak 2008, p. 230).
In the next chart you can see the overview
of the reference interest rate of the National
Bank of Serbia (NBS) for the period from
2007 to 2011.
Grafikon 4. Kretanje referentne kamatne
stope NBS (Đolai, 2011)
Graph 4. Trends of reference interest rate of
the NBS (Đolai, 2011)
Srbiju karakteriše izuzetno visoka referenta
kamatna stopa NBS koja i u uslovima globalne
krize ostaje na visokom nivou, iako druge centralne banke, prije svega centralne banke najrazvijenijih zemalja u svijetu, drastično smanjuju svoje osnovne kamatne stope. Referentna
kamatna stopa prema NBS je u 2007. godini
imala niz oscilacija. Od februara 2008. godine
bilježi konstantan rast da bi u novembru 2008.
godine bila najviša na nivou između 17% i
18%. Nakon toga slijedi period konstantnog
pada do maja 2010. godine kada je referentna
Serbia is characterized by very high referent interest rate NBS in terms of the global
crisis remains high, although other central
banks, primarily the central banks of most
developed countries in the world, drastically
reducing its basic interest rate. The reference
interest rate by NBS 2007 had a series of oscillations. From February 2008 was constant
growth and in November 2008 was the highest level between 17% and 18%. This is followed by a period of constant decline until
May 2010 when the benchmark interest rate
155
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
kamatna stopa bila na nivou oko 8%. U narednom periodu bilježi se konstantan rast sve do
aprila 2011. godine kada opet počinje da pada.
Korisnici kredita sa promjenljivim kamatnim
stopama osjećaju svaku promjenu navedenih
referentnih kamatnih stopa, zbog toga je bitno
pratiti redovno informacije sa tržišta.
was at 8%. In the next period there has been
a constant increase until April 2011 when
again start to fall. Borrowers with variable
interest rates feel any change in the above
benchmark interest rates, therefore it is important to monitor regularly the information
from the market.
Belibor
Belibor
Belibor je referentna kamatna stopa za dinarska sredstva ponuđena od strane banaka
Panela na srpskom međubankarskom tržištu.
Panel banaka čini 11 banaka, a neke od njih
su: Komercijalna banka, Hypo-Alpe-Adria
Bank, Vojvođanska banka i Udruženje banaka. Belibor se izračunava kao aritmetička
sredina kotacija, preostalih poslije eliminisanja najviše i najniže stope, sa dva decimalna
mjesta. U zavisnosti od ročnosti ponuđenih
sredstava razlikuje se: nedeljni, dvonedeljni, mjesečni, dvomjesečni, tromjesečni i šestomjesečni belibor (Vunjak, 2008, str. 237).
Na osnovu analize kretanja tromjesečnih
kamatnih stopa po kojima vodeće srpske banke pozajmljuju dinare jedna drugoj, u periodu
od početka 2007. godine do aprila 2011. godine, izveden je sljedeći grafički prikaz:
Belibor the reference rate for the dinar funds
offered by banks Serbian Panel on the interbank market. The panel consists of 11 banks,
and some of them are: Commercial Bank,
Hypo-Alpe-Adria Bank, Bank of Vojvodina
and the Association of Banks. Belibor is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the quotations, remaining after eliminating the highest
and lowest rates, with two decimal places.
Depending on the maturity of the available
resources is different: weekly, a two weeks,
monthly, bimonthly, quarterly and six-month
Belibor (Vunjak, 2008, p. 237).
Based on an analysis of quarterly movements
in interest rates at which banks lend leading
Serbian dinars to each other, in the period from
the beginning of the 2007 to April 2011 derived following graphic representation:
Grafikon 5. Kretanje belibor-a od januara
2007. do aprila 2011. godine (Đolai, 2011)
Graph 5. Belibor rates from January 2007 to
April 2011 (Đolai, 2011)
156
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
Na grafičkom prikazu se vidi da je u januaru
2007. godine belibor bio na nivou od oko 14%,
nakon čega počinje da opada do kraja 2007. godine. Početkom 2008. godine belibor ponovo
ima rastući trend. Maksimum dostiže godinu
dana kasnije u januaru 2009. godine kada dostiže nivo od 18%. To je period kada je u Srbiji
kriza dostigla vrhunac, usljed čega je rizik na
finansijskom tržištu uticao da se kamatna stopa
na međubankarske pozajmice u Srbiji poveća
na tako visok nivo. Nakon ovog perioda, situacija se stabilizuje, kamatna stopa počinje da
opada sve do kraja 2010. godine kada je bila
ponovo na nivou od 10% kao prije uticaja krize. Međutim, nakon što su se pojavili ponovni
znaci krize u zemljama Evropske unije, to se
odražava i na situaciju u Srbiji i kretanje belibora-a, tako da on ponovo počinje da raste od
jula 2011. godine.
Beonia (eng. Belgrade Overnight Index Average) je efektivna prekonoćna stopa izračunata
kao ponderisani prosjek svih prekonoćnih pozajmica na srpskom međubankarskom tržištu
koje su plasirale banke Panela, uključujući i
plasmane date drugim bankama van Panela. Visina kamatne stope određuje se u fiksnom određenom procentu, ili u zbiru referentne kamatne
stope (libora/belibora/euribora) i određenog
procenta (marže). Pri obračunu kamate, pod referentnom kamatnom stopom podrazumijeva se
vrijednost libora/belibora/euribora i to dva radna dana prije: (1) dana potpisivanja Ugovora i
(2) dana obračuna kamate. Nominalne kamatne
stope se iskazuju u procentima sa dva decimalna mjesta na mjesečnom ili godišnjem nivou.
Godišnja kamatna stopa podrazumijeva period
od 365 kalendarskih dana, a mjesečna period
od broja dana u predmetnom mjesecu za koji se
obračunava kamata (Vunjak, 2008, str. 280).
On the graph shows that in January 2007
Belibor was at about 14%, after which it
starts to decrease until the end of 2007. At
the beginning of 2008 Belibor have again
a growing trend. Maximum reached a year
later in January 2009 when it reaches the
level of 18%. It is a period when the crisis
reached its peak in Serbia, which resulted
in a risk to the financial markets affected
the interest rates on interbank loans in Serbia increased to such a high level. After this
period, the situation has stabilized, interest
rates begin to decline until the end of 2010
when he was again at the 10% level as before the crisis. However, after re-emerged
signs of crisis in the European Union, it
is reflected on the situation in Serbia and
movement of Belibor, so he begins to grow
again from July 2011.
Beonia (Belgrade Overnight Index Average) is an effective overnight rate computed
as a weighted average of all overnight loans
to Serbian interbank market which have
placed the bank panel, including placements
with banks outside the panel. The interest rate
is set at a fixed specific percentage, or the sum
of the reference rate (Libor/Belibor/Euribor)
and a certain percentage (margin). When calculating interest, the reference rate means the
value of Libor/Belibor/Euribor and to two
working days prior to: (1) the date of signature of the Agreement, and (2) days of accrued
interest. Nominal interest rates are expressed
as a percentage with two decimal places on a
monthly or annual basis. The annual interest
rate means a period of 365 calendar days, a
monthly period by the number of days in the
relevant month for which the interest is calculated (Vunjak, 2008, p. 280).
KRETANJE LIBOR-a, BELIBOR-a I
EURIBOR-a KROZ KRIZU
THE MOVEMENT OF LIBOR, BELIBOR I
EURIBOR THROUGH A CRISIS
Nakon analize različitih kamatnih stopa
libor-a, belibor-a i euribor-a, urađena je grafička komparacija kretanja tri različite stope
u periodu od početka 2008. godine do aprila
2012. godine.
After analyzing the different interest rate
Libor, Belibor and Euribor, made a graphic
comparison of three different rates of movement for the period from beginning of 2008
to April 2012.
157
S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
Napomena: Belibor (Đolai, 2011); Euribor (euriborrates.eu, 2012); Libor (global-rates.com, 2012)
Napomena: Belibor (Đolai, 2011); Euribor (euriborrates.eu, 2012); Libor (global-rates.com, 2012)
Na grafikonu možemo vidjeti kretanje međubankarskih pozajmica na međubankarskom
tržištu za vrijeme krize. Uočava se da euribor
i libor imaju slična kretanja, jer su približno
istog nivoa i u istoj vremenskoj tački dostižu
maksimum, u oktobru 2008. godine kada je u
svijetu kriza pokazala najsnažnije posljedice.
Nakon toga dolazi do opadanja, i obje kamatne stope se kreću na približno istom nivou od
oko 1,5%. S druge strane, se vidi da belibor
ne prati kretanje euribor-a i libor-a, jer je on
na mnogo višem nivou (od 10% pa na više).
To ukazuje na veći rizik i nerazvijenost međubankarskog tržišta u Srbiji. Vidimo da se u
Srbiji uticaj krize na kretanje kamatne stope
na međubankarske pozajmice ispoljava nešto
kasnije, u aprilu 2009. godine. Takođe, linija
belibor-a ima nepravilnije kretanje sa više oscilacija.
On the chart we can see the movement of
interbank lending in the interbank market
during the crisis. It can be seen that the Euribor and Libor have similar trends, because
they are approximately the same level in the
same time point reaches a maximum in October 2008 when the world crisis showed the
strongest effects. After that there is a decline,
and both interest rates are moving at about
the same level of around 1,5%. On the other
hand, we can see that Belibor not follow Euribor and Libor, as it is on a much higher level
(10% and above). This indicates a higher risk
and underdevelopment of the interbank market in Serbia. We see that in Serbia the impact
of the crisis on the movement of interest rates
on interbank loans having somewhat later, in
April 2009. Also, the line Belibor has irregular movement with more oscillations.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Finansijska previranja koja su započela 2007. godine imala su značajan uticaj na
funkcionisanje novčanog tržišta. Najprije je
započet jak proces preispitivanja rizika vezanih za kamatne stope na međubankarske
pozajmice, kojem je izloženo međubankarsko tržište. Potom su se ti strahovi proširili
The financial turmoil that began in 2007
had a significant impact on functioning of the
money market. He first started strong review
process risks related to interest rates on interbank loans, which is exposed to the interbank
market. Then, these fears spread to banks and
the money market in the euro area. Uncertain-
158
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
na banke i novčano tržište u evrozoni. Nesigurnost o istinskoj vrijednosti i izloženosti
banaka riziku, naročito, imovine, dovodi do
prve faze krize likvidnosti. Dok su učesnici
na tržištu novca nesigurni o vlastitoj potrebi
za likvidnošću, s obzirom na kontekst veće
volatilnosti, oni takođe revidiraju naviše svoj
ugovorno stranački kreditni rizik u kontekstu
asimetričnih informacija i neizvjesnosti bilansa banaka. To je prevedeno kao povećana
tražnja za likvidnošću. Banke povećavaju tražnju za likvidnošću centralne banke i pokazuju sklonost da rezerve pune na početku, tj. da
drže više depozite kod centralne banke nego
što je potrebno na početku perioda održavanja, kao mjeru predostrožnosti.
Od izbijanja turbulencija na finansijskim
tržištima, što je rezultiralo u dislokacije na
različitim segmentima tržišta novca, učesnici na tržištu su izrazili zabrinutost zbog referentne kamatne stope na novčanom tržištu,
posebno za neobezbijeđene kredite, tvrdeći da
mogu da potcjenjuju stvarne troškove zaduživanja na međubankarskom tržištu. Iako su
ovi problemi uglavnom fokusirani na referentne kamatne stope američkog dolara, bilo je
povremenih kritika kvaliteta eura benčmark
kamatnih stopa za neobezbijeđene kredite,
uključujući euribor i libor eura.
Od presudne važnosti je da tržište ima apsolutno povjerenje u međubankarske pozajmice i njihove ekvivalente (libor, euribor,
eonia, belibor). No, to povjerenje je narušeno
posljednjih godina kada se otkrilo da su pojedini bankari manipulisali njima za vrijeme
finansijske krize od 2007. do 2009. godine. S
obzirom na učestala dešavanja u vezi sa manipulacijom ovih kamatnih stopa, razmatra
se mogućnost korišćenja kamata koje se više
temelje na tržišnim načelima kao, npr., repo
kamata ili prekonoćna indeksna swop kamata,
ili mogućnost korišćenja kamata na američke
trezorske zapise. Zabrinutost zbog manipulisanja međubankarskim pozajmicama izazvala
je preispitivanje i drugih kreditnih mjerila u
svijetu. Evropska centralna banka zatražila je
od organizatora sistema euribora da učini sve
kako bi ojačao povjerenje u to euro mjerilo.
ty about the true value of the banks’ exposure
to risk, in particular, property, leading to the
first phase of a liquidity crisis. While participants in the money market are uncertain about
their own liquidity needs, given the context
of greater volatility, they also revised upward
its contractual party credit risk in the context
of asymmetric information and uncertainty of
banks’ balance sheets. This was interpreted
as increased demand for liquidity. Banks increase the demand for central bank liquidity
and tend to reserve full at the beginning, ie
to hold more deposits with the central bank
rather than what is needed at the beginning
of the maintenance period, as a precautionary
measure.
Since the outbreak of turbulence in financial
markets, which has resulted in the dislocation
of the various segments of the money market,
market participants have expressed concern
over the benchmark interest rate in the money market, especially for unsecured loans, arguing that they could underestimate the real
cost of borrowing in the interbank market. Although these problems are mainly focused on
the reference rate of the U.S. dollar, there was
the occasional criticism of the quality euro
benchmark interest rates for unsecured loans,
including Euribor and Libor euros.
Of crucial importance is that the market
has absolute confidence in inter-bank loans
and their equivalents (Libor, Euribor, Eonia,
Belibor). But that trust was violated last year
when it was discovered that some bankers
manipulate them during the financial crisis
since 2007 to 2009. Due to frequent events related to the manipulation of the interest rates,
discusses the possibility of using interest
rates to be based more on market principles
as, for example, repo interest or overnight index swop interest, or the ability to use interest rate on U.S. treasury bills. Concerns about
manipulation of interbank lending has caused
a re-examination and other credit standards
in the world. The European Central Bank
require for the organizers of Euribor system
to do everything to strengthen confidence in
the euro benchmark. Singapore and Hong
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S. Simić: KAMATNE STOPE NA MEĐUBANKARSKE POZAJMICE
Singapur i Hong Kong najavili su preispitivanje načina na koji se određuju međubankarske referentne stope u azijskim finansijskim
središtima, dok je u Južnoj Koreji agencija za
zaštitu tržišne utakmice proširila istragu zbog
mogućeg manipulisanja tamošnjom referentnom kamatom stopom.
Manipulisanje referentinih stopa, poput libora, euribora, eonie i belibora biće klasifikovano kao krivično djelo, zbog čega se i predlažu pravila na nivou Evropske unije kako bi se
spriječile ove vrste zloupotrebe tržišta i zatvorile bilo kakve rupe u propisima. Pored toga,
razmatra se i stroža kontrola takvih stopa, pri
čemu je doveden u pitanje metod po kojem se
one trenutno obračunavaju. Banke su do sada
same određivale libor i njegov evropski ekvivalent – euribor, ali će se ta praksa, vjerovatno, prekinuti. Sprovođenje reformi će nadgledati Uprava za poslovnu etiku u finansijskom
sektoru (FCA), jedno od dva tijela koje je od
2013. godine zamijenila Uprava za kontrolu i
nadzor finansijskog sektora Velike Britanije.
Najvažnije je pitanje ko će, nakon jedne od
najvećih afera u bankarskom sektoru, preuzeti
odgovornost za oporavak posrnulog sistema.
Naročito zato što je izvjesno da će, uporedno
sa sprovođenjem reformi, izlaziti na vidjelo
novi detalji globalne bankarske zavjere.
Kong have announced a review of the way in
which it determines interbank reference rates
in Asian financial centers, while in South Korea Protection Agency competition expanded
investigation for possible manipulation of the
local reference interest rate.
LITERATURA
LITERATURA
Aikin, S. (2012). Trading Euribor and Eurodollar Futures. Hampshire: Harriman House Limited.
Angeloni, C. & Wolf, G. B. (2012). LTRO,
interbank stress and banks’ stock prices:
a conundrum?. Preuzeto 28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.bruegel.
org/nc/blog/detail/article/723-ltro-interbank-stress-and-banks-stock-prices-a-conundrum/
BBA libor. (2012). The basics. Preuzeto 23.
januara 2014. sa sajta: http://www.bbalibor.com/explained/the-basics
Đolai, S. (2011). Istraživanje portala: Izabrati fiksne kamate ili rizikovati?. Preuzeto
Aikin, S. (2012). Trading Euribor and Eurodollar Futures. Hampshire: Harriman House Limited.
Angeloni, C. & Wolf, G. B. (2012). LTRO,
interbank stress and banks’ stock prices:
a conundrum?. Preuzeto 28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.bruegel.
org/nc/blog/detail/article/723-ltro-interbank-stress-and-banks-stock-prices-a-conundrum/
BBA libor. (2012). The basics. Preuzeto 23.
januara 2014. sa sajta: http://www.bbalibor.com/explained/the-basics
Đolai, S. (2011). Istraživanje portala: Izabrati fiksne kamate ili rizikovati?. Preuzeto
160
Manipulating referentinih rate, such as Libor,
Euribor, Eonia and Belibor will be classed as a
criminal offense, which is why to propose rules
at the EU level in order to prevent this kind of
abuse of market and closed any loopholes in the
regulations. In addition, considering the more
stringent control of such rates, with the questionable methods by which they are currently calculated. Banks have so far determined the same
Libor and its European equivalent - Euribor, but
this practice is probably broken. Reforms will
oversee the management of business ethics in
the financial sector (FCA), one of the two bodies, which has since 2013. Replaced management control and supervision of the financial
sector of the UK. The most important question
is who will, after one of the biggest scandals in
the banking sector, to take responsibility for recovery of ailing system. Especially because it is
certain that, in parallel with the implementation
of reforms, come out into the details of the new
global banking conspiracy.
S. Simić: INTEREST RATES ON INTERBANK LOANS
28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://banke.
online.rs/42/807/clanak.htm
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regulisanja inflacije. Preuzeto 09. aprila
2014. sa sajta: http://www.ubs-asb.com/
Portals/0/Casopis/2008/11_12/B11-122008-Furtula.pdf
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Preuzeto 23. januara 2014. sa sajta: http://
de.global-rates.com/zinssatze/libor/libor-hintergrundinformationen.aspx
Global-rates.com. (2012). 3 month Swiss
franc LIBOR interest rate. Preuzeto 28.
novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/libor/swissfranc/chf-libor-interest-rate-3-months.
aspx
Ellis, D. & Campana, B. (2013). Reforming
the Benchmarks: Similarities and differences between LIBOR and EURIBOR. Preuzeto 09. februara 2014. sa http://www.
fticonsulting.com/global2/media/collateral/united-kingdom/similarities-and-differences-between-libor-and-euribor-.pdf
Euribor-rates.eu. (2012). Euribor charts with
historical Euribor rates. Preuzeto 28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.euribor-rates.eu/euribor-charts.asp
Komazec, S., Gligić, A. & Ristic, Z. (2008).
Bankarski menadžment. Univerzitet za
poslovne studije Banja Luka.
Vunjak, M. N. (2008). Finansijski menadžment - Poslovne finansije. Ekonomski fakultet Subotica.
28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://banke.
online.rs/42/807/clanak.htm
Furtila, S. (2008). Referentna kamatna stopa narodne banke Srbije kao instrument
regulisanja inflacije. Preuzeto 09. aprila
2014. sa sajta: http://www.ubs-asb.com/
Portals/0/Casopis/2008/11_12/B11-122008-Furtula.pdf
Global-rates.com. (2013). LIBOR - Hintergrundinformationen über den LIBOR.
Preuzeto 23. januara 2014. sa sajta: http://
de.global-rates.com/zinssatze/libor/libor-hintergrundinformationen.aspx
Global-rates.com. (2012). 3 month Swiss
franc LIBOR interest rate. Preuzeto 28.
novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/libor/swissfranc/chf-libor-interest-rate-3-months.
aspx
Ellis, D. & Campana, B. (2013). Reforming
the Benchmarks: Similarities and differences between LIBOR and EURIBOR. Preuzeto 09. februara 2014. sa http://www.
fticonsulting.com/global2/media/collateral/united-kingdom/similarities-and-differences-between-libor-and-euribor-.pdf
Euribor-rates.eu. (2012). Euribor charts with
historical Euribor rates. Preuzeto 28. novembra 2012. sa sajta: http://www.euribor-rates.eu/euribor-charts.asp
Komazec, S., Gligić, A. & Ristic, Z. (2008).
Bankarski menadžment. Univerzitet za
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161
162
DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMICS
CYBER KRIMINAL
CYBER CRIME
Renata Gligorević, dipl. ek.
Stručni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1301011G, UDK 343.53:[004.738.5 005.742
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Cyber kriminal је prisutan od samog početka upotrebe računara i računarske opreme.
Cyber kriminal je oblik kriminalnog ponašanja, kod koga se računarske mreže pojavljuju
kao sredstvo izvršenja kriminalnog djela. Na
početku, takvo kriminalno ponašanje je bilo
beznačajno.
Riječ je o kriminalnom djelu koje, uglavnom,
obavljaju pojedinci, ali, u nekim slučajevima, i same
organizacije. Takvo kriminalno ponašanje ima za
posljedicu neovlašćen pristup povjerljivim informacijama kao i njihovo nedozvoljeno objavljivanje.
Cyber crime is present from the beginning
of the use of computers and computer equipment. Cyber crime is a form of criminal behaviour, in which computer networks appear
as a medium of a criminal act. At the beginnings, such criminal behaviour was insignificant.
It is a criminal act which is mainly done by
individuals, but the organisations also. Such
criminal behaviour has as a result unauthorised access to confidential information and
unauthorized publishing.
Ključne riječi: cyber kriminal, kriminalno
ponašanje, računarske mreže i računarska oprema.
Key words: cyber crime, criminal behaviour,
computer networks and computer equipment.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Ljudska potreba za brojnim pogodnostima
koje pruža upotreba savremene tehnologije,
za kratko vrijeme je dovela do opasne zavisnosti od umreženih sistema. Nacionalna infrastruktura se našla pod kontrolom složenih
kompjuterskih sistema. Vremenom se ova informaciona tehnologija „uvukla“ u svaki segment ljudskog života.
Kompjuteri upravljaju velikim dijelom našeg života. Brz razvoj i upotreba savremene
tehnologije upravljaju našim komunikacijama, vozilima, poslovima, transakcijama, ama
baš svim. Sve to ima i prednosti i mane. Jedan
od glavnih problema sa kojim se susrećemo
pri upotrebi računara jeste upravo kompjuterski kriminal.
Cyber kriminal se odnosi na zloupotrebu računarske tehnologije, a neki od primjera zloupotrebe su utaja, pronevjera, krađa. Podaci
The human need for the numerous benefits
provided by the use of modern technology, in
a short time led to a dangerous dependence on
networked systems. National infrastructure
came under the control of complex computer
systems. Over time, the information technology was dragged into every aspect of human
life.
Computers direct large part of our lives.
The rapid development and use of modern
technology directs our communications, cars,
jobs, transactions, absolutely everything. For
all that there are both advantages and disadvantages. One of the major flaws and problems with which, we are meeting when we
use a computer is just a computer crime.
Cyber crime is in fact related to the abuse of
computer technology, a few examples of the
misuse are fraud, embezzlement, theft. The
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R. Gligorević: CYBER KRIMINAL
koji se dobiju na neovlašćen način, tj. zloupotrebom računara mogu da posluže za pribavljanje brojnih koristi.
data obtained in an unauthorised manner, i.e.
misuse of computers can be used to obtain a
number of benefits.
KOMPJUTERSKI KRIMINAL
COMPUTER CRIME
U današnjem svijetu sve više se koristi pojam „cyber“, a da u stvari i ne znamo šta on
znači. Pojam „cyber“ prvo se pojavio u vojnoj terminologiji, u smislu predviđanja budućih oblika ratovanja. „Cyberwar“ predstavlja
ratovanje znanjem, odnosno informacijama.
Radi se o ratu visoke tehnologije, koji se odnosi na prikupljanje povjerljivih informacija.
Pojam cyber kriminal se može definisati
kao oblik kriminalnog ponašanja za čije izvršenje se koristi računarska oprema. Lica koja
obavljaju takve kriminalne radnje su cyber
kriminalci. Uglavnom su to muškarci između 19 i 30 godina starosti. Postoji veoma mali
broj žena koje se bave ovim nedozvoljenim
radnjama, ali se one uglavnom pojavljuju kao
saučesnici (Mesarović, 2006).
Cyber kriminalom su se mladi hakeri dokazivali u društvu, ali, kako se tehnologija
razvijala, i cyber kriminalci su postajali ozbiljniji i zreliji ljudi, koji su imali motive za
takvo ponašanje.
Cyber kriminalci su vrlo inteligentni i
obrazovani ljudi koji dosljedno prate razvoj savremene tehnologije. Samouvjereni
i sigurni u svoje znanje, teže da još dublje
prodru u virtualni svijet kako bi ostvarili
svoje ciljeve.
Sa većim razvojem savremene tehnologije,
povećava se i broj kriminalnih radnji kao i
broj njihovih izvršilaca. Svakim danom broj
cyber napada je sve veći i sve više negativno
utiče na cijelo društvo. Riječ je o ozbiljnom
problemu, koga većina ljudi nije ni svjesna.
Mnogi cyber kriminalci su dovoljno inteligentni da iskoriste i najmanju grešku računarske mreže. Njihove najvažnije mete su
kreditne kartice, najčešće kreditne kartice
evropskih zemalja i Kanade. (Gleni, 2011,
str. 10). Cyber napade izvode profesionalni
kriminalci, koji kradu milione i koji žele pri-
Today, many people use the term „cyber“,
but they do not know what its meaning. The
term “cyber” first appeared in military vocabulary, in terms of predicting future forms of
warfare. “Cyber war” is a war of knowledge
or information. It is a war of high technology,
which refers to the collection of confidential
information.
The concept of cyber crime can be defined
as a form of criminal behaviour that is performed by the use of computer equipment.
Persons who perform such criminal activities are cyber criminals. They are mostly men
between 19 and 30 years of age. There are
few women involved in these illegal activities, but they mostly appear as accomplices
(Mesarovic, 2006).
Cyber crime used to be a way of young hackers proving themselves in the society but as
development of technology is growing, more
serious and mature people are becoming cyber
criminals with motives for such behavior.
Cyber criminals are very intelligent and educated people who consistently follow the development of modern technology. Confident
and sure of their knowledge, they tend to penetrate deeper into the virtual world in order to
achieve their goals.
By the increasing development of modern technology, number of crimes and number of their
executors increases. Each day the number of cyber attacks is growing as more and more negative
effects are on the whole society. This is a serious
problem, which most people are not aware of .
Many cyber criminals are
intelligent
enough to take advantage of the smallest erron on a computer network. Their main targets
are mostly credit cards, usually credit cards
of European countries and Canada. (Gleni,
2011, p.10). Cyber attacks are performed by
professional criminals who steal millions and
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R. Gligorević: CYBER CRIME
stup računarima, brojevima kreditnih kartica
i slično.
Cyber kriminalci „vrebaju“ iza svojih monitora i teško je dokazati ko je, u stvari, osoba
koja pokreće sav taj haos u virtualnom svijetu. Na mrežama je teško odrediti ko Vam
ne misli dobro. Zakoni koji se odnose na internet, se razlikuju od države do države. Za
kriminalističke službe najveći problem jeste
anonimnost, jer se ne može sa sigurnošću dokazati ko upravlja računarom ili računarskom
opremom. Glavni cilj cyber kriminalca je da
ostane anoniman i da izbriše svaki trag, koji
bi otkrio njegov identitet i lokaciju. Upravo
zbog toga, oni, uglavnom, vrebaju iz lokalnih
internet kafea.
Cyber operacije se mogu podijeliti na: (1)
računarski Mrežni napad - CNA, (2) računarska mrežna odbrana - CND i (3) Računarska
mrežna eksploatacija - CNE (Popić, 2012).
Cyber kriminal je takav oblik kriminalnog
ponašanja kod koga je cyber prostor okruženje u kome se računarska mreža koristi kao
osnovno sredstvo izvršenja krivičnog djela.
Cyber prostor podrazumijeva visoku tehničku
opremeljenost.
Računarske mreže stvorile su mogućnost za
novi oblik kriminala. Organizovanje takvog
kriminala zahtijeva dobro poznavanje kompjuterske tehnologije. Kompjutersku tehnologiju najčešće koriste dvije grupe ljudi koje
se bave ovakvim kriminalom: pravi hakeri i
pravi kriminalci. Radi se o zaista ozbiljnom
organizovanom kriminalu.
Pravi hakeri i pravi kriminalci čine grupe
od kojih jako mali procenat ljudi predstavlja
ozbiljnu prijetnju za virtualni svijet. Ostali su
sitni lopovi koji rade samostalno i tu je riječ o
manjim sumama novca. Njih se ne isplati loviti
s obzirom na oskudne resurse sa kojim raspolažu kriminalističke službe.
Svijet se danas susreće sa sve mlađim osobama, tzv. hakerima, koji dobro poznaju savremenu tehnologiju i koji detaljno prate njen
razvoj. Dok se na jednoj strani nalaze pojedinci sa velikim znanjem o informaciono – komunikacionoj tehnologiji, na drugoj strani se
who want access to computers, numbers of
credit cards and other similar things.
Cyber criminals are lurking behind their
monitors and it is very difficult to prove who
the person who has initiated all this chaos in the
virtual world actually is. It is much more difficult online to determine whose intentions are
bad. Laws relating to the Internet are different
from country to country. For law enforcement
agencies the biggest problem is the anonymity
because you can not prove with certainty who
operates the computer or computer equipment.
The main goal of cyber criminals is to remain
anonymous and to beat every trace that might
discover their identity and location. Because of
this, they usually lurk from local internet cafés.
Cyber operations can be divided into: (1)
Computer Network Attack - CNA. (2) Computer Network Defence -CND. (3) Computer
Network Exploitation - CNE (Popic, 2012).
Cyber crime is such a form of criminal
behaviour where the cyber space is environment in which the computer network is
used as the primary means of committing the
crime. Cyber space involves high technical
equipment.
Computer networks have created the opportunity for new forms of crime. Organising
such a criminal activity requires possession of
a good knowledge of computers. Such techniques are commonly used by two groups of
people who are involved in this crime: the
real hackers and real criminals. This is a really serious organised crime.
The real hackers and the real criminals form the
group from which a very small percentage of people represent a serious threat to the virtual world.
Others are little thieves who work alone and they
are after small sums of money. These players are
not worth the hunt, given the scarce resources
available to the law eforcement services.
Today, the world is faced with younger people called hackers who have very good understanding of modern technology and who closely follow its development. While there are
individuals with extensive knowledge of information - communication technology, on the
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R. Gligorević: CYBER KRIMINAL
nalazi veći broj ljudi, koji o toj tehnologiji ne
zna ništa.
Cyber kriminal svakim danom sve više raste i stvara ogroman problem i pojedincima
i državi. Zemlje u razvoju su posebna meta
hakera ili cyber kriminalaca, koji vrebaju iz
malih nerazvijenih i mnogo siromašnijih zemalja.
Kao što je već rečeno, to su, uglavnom,
mladi ljudi, koji na samom početku bavljenja takvim nelegalnim djelatnostima nisu
ni svjesni da čine ozbiljno kriminalno djelo.
Njihov motiv jeste da se dokažu u društvu
ili da otkriju nešto novo što do sada niko
nije uspio. Vidjevši da iz svega toga mogu
da izvuku i određenu korist, motivisani su
da nastave dalje, nadajući se da ih niko neće
otkriti.
Cyber kriminal je takav oblik kriminalnog
ponašanja kod koga je teško ući u trag izvršiocima, ali sa velikim naporima i zalaganjima i
to je moguće. Ključ uspjeha i opstanka kriminalističkih službi jeste da budu u kontaktu sa
svojim kolegama u drugim zemljama. Upravo
zbog toga što se zakon o cyber kriminalu razlikuje od države do države.
Cyber kriminal danas pravi veću štetu nego
trgovina drogama. Jedan od najvećih problema jeste što nema adekvatnog zakona za ovu
vrstu kriminala, jer internet nema granica.
Lica koja se bave ovim nelegalnim radnjama su, uglavnom, studenti, informatički
stručnjaci, bivši inspektori kriminalističkih
službi i brojni drugi koji dobro poznaju savremenu tehnologiju.
other hand there is a larger number of people
who do not know anything on this technology.
Cyber crime grows more and more every
day and creates enormous problems to the authorities and society in general. Developing
countries are especially a targeted zone for
hackers and cyber criminals who are preying
from undeveloped and poor countries.
It was aforementioned that these are mostly
young people who at the beginning of dealing
with such illegal activities are not even aware
that it is actually a serious cyber crime. Their
motive is to prove themselves in the society or
to discover something new that no one has succeeded in before. Being aware of the possibility
to derive a certain benefit, has certainly given
them an even greater incentive and motivation to
continue , hoping that no one will discover them.
Cyber crime is a form of criminal behaviour in which it is very difficult to trace a
criminal but with a great effort and dedication it is possible. The key to success and
efficiency of law enforcement is to keep in
touch with colleague in other countries. It is
because the law on cyber crime varies from
state to state.
Cyber crime now makes more damage than
drug trafficking. One of the biggest problems is
that there are not laws against this type of criminal
activity, because the Internet has no boundaries.
Persons who are dealing with these illegal
activities are mainly students, IT professionals, former law enforcement inspectors and
many others who have extensive knowledge
of modern technology.
VRSTE I TIPOVI CYBER KRIMINALA
KINDS AND TYPES OF CYBER CRIME
Na svom Desetom kongresu za suzbijanje
kriminala i postupanju prema prestupnicima,
2000. godine, UN su podijelile cyber kriminal
na dvije podkategorije:
1. cyber kriminal u užem smislu, koji podrazumijeva svako nezakonito ponašanje
usmjereno na elektronske operacije sigurnosti kompjuterskih sistema i podataka,
koji se u njima obrađuju;
In 2000 at UN Tenth Congress for Crime
Prevention and the Treatment of Offenders,
cyber crime was divided into two sub-categories:
1. Cyber Crime in the narrow meaning
is any illegal activity directed to electronic operations security of computer
systems and data which are processed
within.
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R. Gligorević: CYBER CRIME
2. cyber kriminal u širem smislu, odnosno
svako nezakonito ponašanje vezano za ili
u odnosu na kompjuterski sistem i mrežu, uključujući i takav kriminal kakvo je
nezakonito posjedovanje, nuđenje i distribuisanje informacija preko kompjuterskih
sistema i mreža (Ugren, 2012, str. 9).
Istim dokumentom su definisani i konkretni
oblici ovog kriminaliteta, u skladu sa Preporukom Savjeta Evrope i listom OECD-a, te u
djela cyber kriminala u užem smislu spadaju:
(1) neautorizovani pristup kompjuterskom sistemu ili mreži, kršenjem mjera sigurnosti;
(2) oštećenje kompjuterskih podataka ili
programa; (3) kompjuterske sabotaže;
(4) neovlašćeno presretanje komunikacija
od i u kompjuterskim sistemima i mrežama;
(5) kompjuterska špijunaža (Ibidem).
Kao oblici cyber kriminala u širem smislu najčešće se pojavljuju: (1) kompjuterski falsifikati;
(2) kompjuterske krađe; (3) tehničke manipulacije uređajima ili elektronskim komponentama
uređaja; (4) zloupotreba sistema plaćanja, kao
što su manipulacije i krađe elektronskih kreditnih kartica ili korišćenje lažnih šifri u nezakonitim finansijskim aktivnostima (Ibidem).
Evropska konvencija o cyber kriminalu previđa četiri grupe djela:
1. djela protiv povjerljivosti, integriteta i
dostupnosti kompjuterskih podataka i sistema – njih čine nezakoniti pristup, presretanje, uplitanje u podatke ili sisteme,
korišćenje uređaja (proizvodnja, prodaja,
uvoz, distribucija), programa, lozinki;
2. djela vezana za kompjutere kod kojih su
falsifikovanje i krađe najtipičniji oblici
napada;
3. djela vezana za sadržaje – dječija pornografija je najčešći sadržaj koji se pojavljuje u ovoj grupi cyber kriminala;
4. djela vezana za kršenje autorskih i srodnih
prava, obuhvataju reprodukovanje i distribuciju neautorizovanih primjeraka djela
kompjuterskim sistemima (Ibidem, str. 10).
U Enciklopediji cyber kriminala navodi se
da FBI i Nacionalni centar za kriminal bijelih kragni SAD (National White Collar Cri-
2. Cyber Crime in a broader meaning is any
unlawful conduct related to or in relation
to a computer system and network including such crimes as the unlawful possession, offering and distribution of information through computer systems and
networks (Ugren, 2012, p. 9).
The same document also defines specific forms of crime in accordance with Council
of Europe recommendations and a list of the
OECD, so that the acts of cyber crime in the narrow meaning include: (1) Unauthorized access
to a computer system or network, or breach of
security measures; (2) Damage to computer data
or programs; (3) Computer sabotage; (4) Unauthorized interception of communications and
computer systems and networks; (5) Computer
espionage (Ibidem).
As the forms of cyber crime in a broader sense,
the most frequently occurring are: (1) Computer
forgeries; (2) Computer theft; (3) Technical manipulation devices and electronic components of
the device; (4) Misuse of payment systems, such
as electronic manipulation and theft of credit
cards or use of fake code in illegal financial activities (Ibidem).
European Convention of Cybercrime
foresees four groups of works:
1. Offenses against the confidentiality, integrity and availability of computer data and systems – made up of illegal access, interception,
interference with data or systems, the use of
the device (production, selling, importing,
distribution) of programmes, a password;
2. Offenses related to computers in which
forgery and theft are the most typical
forms of attack;
3. Offenses related content - child pornography is the most common content that appears in this group of cyber crime;
4. Offenses related to infringement of copyright
and related rights, including reproduction
and distribution of unauthorized copies of a
work by computer systems. (Ibidem, p. 10).
The Encyclopaedia of cyber crime, according
to FBI and the National Center for white-collar
crime the U.S. (National White Collar Crime
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R. Gligorević: CYBER KRIMINAL
me Center) otkrivaju i prate sljedeće oblike:
(1) upade u kompjuterske mreže; (2) industrijsku špijunažu; (3) softversku pirateriju;
(4) dječiju pornografiju; (5) bombardovanje
elektronskom poštom; (6) „njuškanje“ password-a; (7) „prerušavanje“ jednog računara da elektronski „liči“ na drugi, kako bi se
moglo pristupiti sistemu, koji je pod restrikcijom; (8) krađu kreditnih kartica (Ibidem).
U zavisnosti od tipa počinjenog djela, cyber
kriminal može biti:
1. politički, koji čine cyber špijunaža, hakovanje, cyber sabotaža, cyber ratovanje i
cyber terorizam;
2. ekonomski cyber kriminal čine cyber prevare, hakovanje, krađa internet usluga i
vremena, piratstvo softvera, piratstvo mikročipova i baza podataka, cyber industrijska špijunaža, prevare internet aukcije;
3. proizvodnja i distribucija nedozvoljenih i
štetnih sadržaja čine dječija pornografija,
pedofilija, vjerske sekte, širenje rasističkih i nacističkih kao i sličnih ideja i stavova, zloupotreba žena i djece, manipulacija
zabranjenim proizvodima, supstancama i
robom (droga, ljudski organi, oružje);
4. povrede cyber privatnosti čine nadgledanje e-pošte, spam, phiching, prisluškivanje, praćenje e-konferencija, itd (Ibidem,
str. 10-11).
Center) detects and monitors the following
forms: (1) Hacking the computer network;
(2) Industrial espionage; (3) Software piracy;
(4) Child pornography; (5) The bombing of
the electronic mail; (6) “Sniffing” passwords;
(7) “Disguise” of a computer to electronically “look like” the other, in order to be able to
access the system which is under restriction;
(8) The theft of credit cards (Ibidem).
Depending on the type of offense committed, cyber crime can be:
1. Political cyber crime made up of cyber
espionage, hacking, cyber sabotage, cyber
warfare and cyber terrorism.
2. Financial cyber crime made up of cyber
fraud, hacking, theft of Internet services
and time, piracy software, microchips and
databases, cyber industrial espionage, Internet auction fraud.
3. Production and distribution of illegal and
harmful content include child pornography, pedophilia, religious sects, spreading
of racist, Nazi and similar ideas and attitudes, abuse of women and children, manipulation of prohibited goods, substances
and goods (drugs, human organs, arms).
4. Affliction of cyber policy content include:
monitoring of e-mail, spam, phiching,
tapping, following of electronic conferences (Ibidem, p. 10-11)
CYBER BEZBJEDNOST
CYBER SECURITY
Bezbjednost se odnosi na zaštitu vrijedne
imovine od gubitka, odnosno oštećenja. Postoje
mnoge pojave koje mogu da ugroze bezbjednost
informacionih sistema određenih organizacija.
Neke od tih pojava su sankcionisane zakonom
(Krsmanović & Polić, 2012, str. 72).
Tehničke mjere zaštite su: identifikatori
korisnika, lozinke, firewall i slično. Softverska rješenja koja se koriste za bezbjednost
informacionih sistema su: mrežni firewall,
upravljanje ranjivošću, upravljanje mrežnom
bezbjednošću, obezbjeđenje bežične mreže
(wireless) itd. (Ibidem, str. 80).
Security refers to the protection of valuable
assets from loss or damage. There are many
factors that may endanger security of information systems of a company. Some of these
phenomena are sanctioned by law (Krsmanovic & Polic, 2012, p. 72).
Technical protection measures are user IDs,
passwords, firewalls and other. Software solutions that are used to ensure the safety of information systems are network firewall management, vulnerability management, network
security, securing a wireless network (wireless) (Ibidem, p. 80).
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Razvoj savremene tehnologije ima svoje
prednosti i mane. Glavni problem ili poteškoća sa kojom se susreću osobe, koje koriste
savremenu informaciono – komunikacionu
tehnologiju jeste cyber bezbjednost. Informacioni sistemi treba da pruže sigurnost upotrebe ove tehnologije kako bi se steklo povjerenje u njeno korišćenje.
Postoji veliki procenat ljudi koji nisu sigurni
u računarske mreže i ne usuđuju se da ih koriste. Strahuju da će se njihovi lični podaci i
informacije naći na meti cyber kriminalaca.
Gledajući trenutno stanje, može se reći da imaju razlog za strah. Ko može da garantuje da će
njihovi podaci biti zaštićeni od zloupotrebe?
Da bi se steklo povjerenje u cyber okruženje, potrebno je uspostaviti politiku bezbjednosti. Politika bezbjednosti treba da pokaže
da je internet sigurno sredstvo i da nema razloga za brigu. Najmanja greška ili propust za
cyber kriminalca predstavlja pun pogodak da
na lak način zloupotrijebi ili ukrade povjerljive informacije. Riječ je o nemilosrdnom obliku kriminala za koji odgovara jako mali broj
cyber kriminalaca.
Krsmanović i Polić navode neke od tehnika
za sticanje povjerenja u digitalno okruženje:
sertifikovani digitalni potpis i kriptografska zaštita podataka. Kriptografija predstavlja proces
konvertovanja digitalnih informacija u šifrovani tekst sa jednim algoritmom za šifrovanje
(enkripciju) i dešifrovanje (dekripciju). Kriptografija treba da obezbijedi povjerenje, autentičnost, integritet i neporicanje (Ibidem, str. 21).
Šifrovanje (enkripcija) predstavlja element
kriptografije. To je postupak transformacije čitljivog teksta u nečitljiv tekst za onoga
kome taj tekst nije namijenjen (Ibidem).
Dešifrovanje (dekripcija) je takođe element
kriptografije i predstavlja postupak transformacije nečitljivog teksta u čitljiv tekst, za
onoga kome je taj tekst namijenjen (Ibidem).
Internet se susreće sa dva osnovna problema:
sigurnost prenošenja podataka i ostvarivanje
sigurne komunikacije. To su problemi koji se
uvijek pojavljuju i koje je potrebno riješiti kako
bi se steklo povjerenje u digitalno okruženje.
The development of modern technology has
both advantages and disadvantages. The main
problem or difficulty people who use modern
information - communication technology are
faced with is cyber security. Information systems need to provide safe use of such technology in order to keep confidence in its use.
There is a large percentage of people who
do not trust computer networks and do not
dare to use them. They are afraid that their
personal data and information may become
target of cyber criminals. Analysing the current situation, we can say that they have justified cause to fear. Who can guarantee that
their data will be protected from abuse?
In order to gain confidence in the cyber environment, it is necessary to provide security
policy. Security policies need to show that the
Internet is a safe place and that there is no reason to worry. The smallest error or omission
can represent a bingo opportunity for cyber
criminals misuse or steal confidential information. It is a ruthless form of crime which
corresponds to a very small number of cyber
criminals.
Krsmanovic and Polic suggest some of the
techniques for gaining confidence in the digital
environment: certified digital signatures and
cryptographic data protection. Cryptography
is the process of converting digital information
into an encrypted text with an algorithm for encryption and decryption. Cryptography should
provide confidence, authenticity, integrity, and
non-repudiation (Ibidem, p. 21).
Encryption is an element of cryptography. It
is a process of transformation of readable text
into unreadable text to the person whom the
text is not intended for. (Ibidem).
Decryption is also an element of cryptography and represents a process of transformation
of unreadable text into a readable one for the
person whom the text is intended (Ibidem).
The Internet is facing with two main problems: security of data transfer and exercising
of secure communications. These are problems
that always occur and they need to be solved in
order to gain confidence in digital environment.
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R. Gligorević: CYBER KRIMINAL
NAJVEĆI CENTRI
CYBER KRIMINALA
THE BIGGEST CENTRES
OF CYBER CRIME
Norton u svom izvještaju za 2013. godinu
navodi da cyber kriminal nema granica i da se
najveći broj žrtava nalazi u Rusiji (85%), Kini
(77%), Južnoj Africi (73%). Godišnji broj žrtava cyber kriminala, procjenjuje se na 378
miliona (Security affairs, 2013).
Finansijski troškovi zbog cyber kriminala
iznose: SAD (38 milijardi doalra), Evropa (13
milijardi dolara), Kina (37 milijardi dolara),
Brazil (8 milijardi dolara), Indija (4 milijarde
dolara), Meksiko (3 milijarde dolara), Australija, Japan i Rusija (1 milijarda dolara) (Ibidem).
Najčešći oblici cyber kriminala koji se koriste u pomenutim zemljama su: prevare 38%,
krađa podataka 21%, izmjena podataka 24% i
ostali oblici 17% (Ibidem).
Norton (2013) navodi da sve većom upotrebom mobilnih telefona („pametnih telefona“) dolazi do povećanja broja cyber napada.
Jedna polovina korisnika tih uređaja ne koristi osnovne mjere predostrožnosti, zbog čega
postaju žrtve cyber napada (Ibidem).
Interesantan je primjer Austrije gdje je cyber kriminal u značajnom porastu, što pokazuje izvještaj Savezne kriminalističke službe
(BK). Sa nešto više od 10.000 prijavljenih
slučajeva u 2012. godini broj prekršaja ovog
tipa se, u poređenju sa 2011. godinom, gotovo
više nego udvostručio. BK procjenjuje da je
tačan broj cyber krivičnih djela daleko veći
i ukazuje da su „pametni telefoni“ sve češća
meta cyber napada (Vijesti online, 2013).
U 2012. godini je prijavljeno ukupno 10.231
krivično djelo iz oblasti cyber kriminala, što je
više od dvostrukog povećanja u poređenju sa
2011. godinom, kada je podnesena 4.831 prijava. Stopa riješenih slučajeva iznosila je oko 25%,
što je smanjenje za oko 20% u poređenju sa 2011.
godinom, proizilazi iz izvještaja (Ibidem).
BK ističe da su uzroci za smanjenje stope sve veća profesionalizacija kriminalnih
bandi koje su organizovane i međunarodno umrežene, kao i zbog sve učestalije
upotrebe programa koji nanose štetu raču-
Norton (2013) says in his report that cyber
crime has no borders and majority of victims
are located in Russia (85%), China (77%),
South Africa (73%). The annual number of
victims of cyber crime is estimated at 378
million (Security affairs, 2013).
The financial costs arising from cyber
crime are: USA ($ 38 billion), Europe ($
13 billion), China ($ 37 billion), Brazil ($
8 billion), India ($ 4 billion), Mexico (3
billion), Australia, Japan and Russia (1 billion) (Ibidem).
The most common forms of cyber crime
which are used in these countries are 38%
fraud, data theft 21%, exchange of data 24%
and other forms 17% (Ibidem).
Norton (2013) states that by the increasing
use of mobile phones (“smart phones”) there
is an increasing number of cyber attacks. One
half of all users of these devices do not use
basic precautions what makes them become
victims of cyber attacks (Ibidem).
Austria is an interesting example where
cyber crime is significantly increasing as
the Federal Law Enforcement agency (BK)
report says. With over 10,000 reported cases of violation compared to the year 2011
cyber crime has almost more than doubled.
BK estimates that the real number of cyber
offenses is higher and suggests that “smart
phones” are more frequently targeted by cyber attacks (Vijesti online, 2013).
In 2012 it reported a total of 10,231 criminal offenses of cyber crime, almost doubled
compared to 2011 when they filed 4,831 applications. The rate of solved cases has risen
to about 25%, a decrease of about 20% compared with 2011, resulting from the report
(Ibidem).
BK points out that the causes of the reduction of the increasing professionalisation of
criminal gangs that are organised and networked internationally, as well as for more
frequent use of programmes that harm the
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R. Gligorević: CYBER CRIME
narima. Istovremeno je rad policije otežan
zbog novih tehnologija i anonimnosti korisnika (Ibidem).
computers. At the same time the police work
is more difficult due to new technologies and
anonymity of users (Ibidem).
CYBER KRIMINAL U
BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
CYBER CRIME IN
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
U cilju efikasnije borbe protiv cyber - kriminala, Bosna i Hecegovina je definisala Akcioni plan za borbu protiv cyber - kriminala,
koji se provodi, te potpisala i niz međunarodnih konvencija i sporazuma među kojima su i
oni o policijskoj saradnji sa gotovo svim zemljama u regiji, ali i šire (Start, 2012).
Borba protiv cyber - kriminala je sastavni
dio Strategije BiH za prevenciju i borbu protiv
terorizma od 2010. do 2013. u kojoj stoji da
za sada ne postoje pouzdani pokazatelji na koji
način, u kojoj mjeri i obimu je ovaj problem
prisutan u BiH i da, prema raspoloživim podacima, u BiH za sada nije došlo do zloupotrebe interneta u klasične terorističke svrhe ili u
funkciji cyber - terorizma, ali da postoji nekoliko web sajtova, koji prezentovanim sadržajima
podstiču ili pozivaju na netrpeljivost, pa i mržnju i uglavnom se radi o sajtovima koji nisu
registrovani u BiH, nego u pojedinim evropskim zemljama kao što su Austrija, Njemačka,
Norveška i slično (Ibidem).
Tokom prethodne dvije godine nadležnim
tužilaštvima u Bosni i Hercegovini podneseno je više od 50 izvještaja o počinjenim krivičnim djelima iz oblasti kompjuterskog kriminala. Na globalnom nivou, procjenjuje se
da je trenutno na internetu više od milion slika djece koja su izložena seksualnom zlostavljanju i eksploataciji, a njihov broj se godišnje
uvećava za 50.000 (Tuzlanski.ba, 2012).
U Bosni i Hercegovini su u 2012. godini registrovane 64 prijave cyber kriminala. U Derventi, marta 2011. godine. Federalna uprava
policije RS je u računaru jednog korisnika
pronašla 2 miliona fotografija i 7 000 video
snimaka dječije pornografije (Ibidem).
Najveći problem, kada je riječ o cyber kriminalu u Bosni i Hercegovini je nepostojanje
adekvatnih mehanizama koji će ga spriječiti.
In order to effectively combat cyber-crime,
BiH has defined an action plan to combat
cyber-crime which is being carried out and
signed a number of international conventions
and agreements, including those on police
cooperation with almost all countries in the
region and beyond (Start, 2012).
The fight against cyber crime is an integral
part of the Strategy for the Prevention and
Combating of Terrorism between 2010 and
2013 in which countries that currently have
no reliable data on how much and to what extent and scope this problem is present in BiH
and that, according to the available data, so
far there has been no abuse of the Internet
for terrorist purposes or classical operational
cyber-terrorism in BiH, but there are several
websites that present contents that encourage
or call for intolerance and hatred and most of
them are sites that are not registered in BiH
but in other European countries such as Austria, Germany, Norway (Ibidem).
Over the past two years relevant prosecutors in Bosnia and Herzegovina filed more
than 50 reports of crimes committed in the
area of cyber crime. Globally, it is estimated
that on the Internet currently exist more than
a million images of children who are vulnerable to sexual abuse and exploitation and that
their number is increasing by 50,000 per year
(Tuzlanski.ba, 2012).
There are 64 files of cyber crime registered in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2012.
In Derventa in 2011 the Federal Police RS
found 2 million photographs and 7,000 videos of child pornography in one computer
(Ibidem).
The biggest problem when it comes to cyber
crime in Bosnia and Herzegovina is the lack of
adequate mechanisms to prevent it. Centre for
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R. Gligorević: CYBER KRIMINAL
Pri Državnoj agenciji za istrage i zaštitu (SIPA)
trebao je formirati Centar za borbu protiv cyber kriminala. Ministarstvo unutrašnjih poslova Republike Srpske (MUP RS) je učinilo
prve korake te je u tu svrhu formiralo posebnu
jedinicu za borbu protiv cyber kriminala, što je
prvo odjeljenje te vrste u cijeloj Bosni i Hercegovini. Od hakera i cyber kriminala strahuje
cijeli svijet, ali problem u Bosni i Hercegovini
predstavlja nedostatak novca koji će se uložiti
u sigurnosne sisteme (Ibidem).
fighting cyber crime should have been formed
in the State Investigation and Protection Agency
(SIPA). Ministry of Internal Affairs of Republic
of Srpska (MUP RS) has made the first step and
for this purpose formed a special unit to fight
cyber crime which is the first department of this
kind in the whole of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The whole world fears hackers and cyber criminals but the problem in Bosnia and Herzegovina
is the lack of money that should be invested in
security systems (Ibidem).
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Nalazimo se u digitalnom dobu koje polako ulazi u svaki segment ljudskog života.
Upravlja našim komunikacijama, vozilima,
poslovima, kupovinom i prodajom. Svako od
nas je bar jednom obavio važnu poslovnu ili
finansijsku transakciju koristeći računar i računarsku opremu, a da nismo razmišljali da
li možemo vjerovati ovoj savremenoj, digitalnoj mreži. Pogodnosti koje ona mreža pruža
su svakako primamljive, ali treba znati i njene
loše karakteristike.
Informacioni sistemi treba da obezbijede politiku bezbjednosti kako bi se steklo
povjerenje pojedinaca u poslovanje putem
interneta. Međutim, kako postoje kriminalne radnje u realnom tako se one javljaju i
u virtualnom svijetu. Razlika je u tome što
u virtualnom svijetu pravi kriminalac vreba iza svoga računara, i teško ga je otkriti.
Upravo zbog toga, samo mali procenat cyber
kriminalaca odgovara za štetu, koju su počinili. I posle izvršenja svoje kazne, za takvog
pojedinca niko ne može garantovati da neće
ponoviti istu grešku.
Cyber kriminal – kriminal modernog, digitalnog doba.
We are living in the digital age which is
slowly entering into every segment of human
life. It manages our communications, cars,
businesses, buying and selling. Each of us
has at least once completed a major business
or financial transaction using computers and
computer equipment without thinking whether we can trust this modern, digital network
or not. The benefits that the network provides
are certainly tempting but one should know
and bad characteristics too.
Information systems should provide security
policy in order to gain the trust of individuals
in the business dealings via the Internet. However, as there is fraud present in the real world,
so there can also be fraud in the virtual world.
The difference is that in the virtual world real
criminal is lurking behind your computer and
it is very difficult to detect them. This is why
only a very small percentage of cyber criminals are found guilty of the damage that they
have caused. And after serving their sentence
there is no guarantee for such an individual that
they will not make the same offense again.
Cyber Crime - Crime of modern, digital age.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Cross Domain Solutions. (n.d.). Cyber crime.
Preuzeto 18. januara 2014. sa sajta http://
www.crossdomainsolutions.com/cybercrime/
Cross Domain Solutions. (n.d.). Cyber crime.
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www.crossdomainsolutions.com/cybercrime/
172
R. Gligorević: CYBER CRIME
Gleni, M. (2011). Dark Market, Kako su hakeri postali nova mafija. Beograd: Samizdat B92.
Krsmanović, B. & Polić, S. (2012). Digitalna ekonomija. Materijal sa predavanja,
Univerzitet Istočno Sarajevo, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina.
Mesarović, S. (2006). Motiv i profil izvršilaca. U zborniku Ziteh ‘06. Beograd. IT
veštak.
Popić, A. (2012). Cyber kriminal načela i
djelovanje. Preuzeto 16. januara 2014,
sa sajta http://digitalnasigurnost.com/cyber-kriminal-nacela-djelovanje/
Security affairs (2013). 2013 Norton Report,
the impact of cybercrime according Symantec. Preuzeto 17. januara 2014. sa
sajta
http://securityaffairs.co/wordpress/18475/cyber-crime/2013-norton-report.html
Start. (2012). Cyber-kriminalci nisu zaigrani
hakeri. Preuzeto 17. januara 2014. sa sajta
http://www.startbih.info/Novost.aspx?novostid=7325.
Tuzlanski.ba (2012). Kompjuterski kriminal u
BiH: Registrirane 64 prijave, zaplijenjeni
milioni fotografija (VIDEO). Preuzeto 18.
januara 2014. sa sajta : http://tuzlanski.ba/
izdvojeno/89-izdvojeno/3500-kompjuterski-kriminal-u-bih-registrirane-64-prijave-zaplijenjeni-milioni-fotografija-video.
html.
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16. januara 2014. sa sajta http://www.vijesti.me/svijet/sajber-kriminal-austriji-zabrinjavajucem-porastu-clanak-149230
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Univerzitet Singidunum Beograd, Departman za poslediplomske studije. Preuzeto
17.01.2014. sa sajta http://www.singipedia.com/content/3523-Cyber-kriminal
Gleni, M. (2011). Dark Market, as hackers
have become the new mafia. Beograd: Samizdat B92.
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economy. Material from lectures, University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business
and Economics Bijeljina.
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offender profile. In Ziteh ‘06. Beograd. IT
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actions. Rectrived January 16, 2014, from
http://digitalnasigurnost.com/cyber-kriminal-nacela-djelovanje/
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from
http://securityaffairs.co/wordpress/18475/cyber-crime/2013-norton-report.html
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from
http://www.startbih.info/Novost.
aspx?novostid=7325.
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173
174
DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMICS
UTICAJ INFORMACIONE TEHNOLOGIJE NA OBAVLJANJE
EKONOMSKE DJELATNOSTI
THE IMPACT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
ON THE PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
Petra Pantić, dipl. ek.
Stručni članak
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402007P, UDK 340.137:004.738.5
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
U ekonomskoj sferi postaje sve značajnije
prikupljanje i raspolaganje informacijama,
kao jedan od bitnih resursa za obavljanje
ekonomske djelatnosti, posjedovanje i korišćenje informacione tehnologije.
Nove informacione tehnologije uveliko povećavaju ekonomsku efikasnost i omogućavaju mnoštvo novih poslovnih mogućnosti.
Zahvaljujući njima uspostavljene su nove direktne veze između ljudi i preduzeća.
Rast preduzeća, kompleksnost poslova, rastuća brzina kojom treba donositi poslovne
odluke i skraćivanje životnog ciklusa proizvoda utiču na razvoj i značaj informacione tehnologije na obavljanje ekonomske djelatnosti.
In the economic sphere it becomes increasingly important when collecting and disposing information, as one of the key resources
for conducting economic activity, possession
and use of information technology.
New information technologies greatly increase the economic efficiency and enable a
host of new business opportunities. Thanks to
them are established new direct connections
between people and businesses.
Enterprise growth, job complexity, increasing
the speed with which to make business decisions
and shortening product life cycle affect the development and importance of information technology to carry out economic activities.
Ključne riječi: raspolaganje informacijama,
obavljanje ekonomske djelatnosti, nove
informacione tehnologije, ekonomska efikasnost.
Key words: access to information, carry
out economic activities, new information
technology, economic efficiency.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Brz razvoj nauke, razvoj informacione i
telekomunikacione tehnologije stvorio je
veoma dobre uslove za globalizaciju poslovanja. Unapređenje i širenje nove tehnologije ima značajan uticaj skoro u svim
sferama ljudske djelatnosti. Osnovni cilj je
da se, bez obzira na geografsku udaljenost,
što brže i efikasnije povežu klijenti i tokovi informacija, njihovo posjedovanje kao i
raspolaganje njima.
U uslovima vrlo jake konkurencije, naročito u ekonomskoj sferi postaje sve značajnije
prikupljanje i posjedovanje informacija kao
The rapid development of science, development of information and telecommunication
technologies has created very good conditions
for the globalization of business. Promotion
and dissemination of new technologies has a
significant impact in almost all spheres of human activity. The main goal is, regardless of
geographic distance, to quickly and efficiently connect customers and information flows,
making their possession and disposal of them.
In terms of very strong competition, particularly in the economic sphere it is becoming increasingly important the gathering and
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P. Pantić: UTICAJ INFORMACIONE TEHNOLOGIJE NA OBAVLJANJE EKONOMSKE DJELATNOSTI
i umijeće korišćenja novih informacionih
tehnologija.
Veoma značajne promjene u našem društvu
desile su se baš onda kada su se razvile savremene tehnologije kao što su: informaciona
tehnologija, laserska tehnologija, tehnologija novih materijala, nuklearna tehnologija,
tehnologija osvajanja svemira, biotehnologija i genetičko inženjerstvo. Pojava i uvođenje ovih tehnologija dovelo je do promjene
u društvenim odnosima, proizvodnji, životu
ljudi i njihovom obrazovanju.
Informacione tehnologije (IT) zasnovane na znanju čine osnovu gotovo svih drugih tehnologija i kao takve one su uključene
u gotovo sve proizvode i usluge preduzeća,
omogućavajući mu smanjenje troškova, veću
efikasnost i profitabilnost poslovanja, unapređenje svih funkcija preduzeća, modernizacija
administracije, ubrzanje procesa projektovanja i sl.
possession of information as well as the art of
using new information technologies.
Very significant changes in our society have
occurred exactly when modern technologies
developed such as: information technology,
laser technology, technology of new materials, nuclear technology, the technology of
space flight, biotechnology and genetic engineering. The emerge and introduction of these
technologies has led to changes in social relations, production, people’s lives and their
education.
Information technology (IT) based on
knowledge form the basis of almost all other
technologies and as such, they are involved in
almost all of the products and services of the
company, enabling cost reduction, increased
efficiency and profitability, improves all functions of the company, the modernization of
administration, accelerates the process of designing and the alike.
POJAM I RAZVOJ INFORMACIONE
TEHNOLOGIJE
CONCEPT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
Teško je dati tačnu definiciju informacionih tehnologija ali možemo reći da se pod
informacionim tehnologijama (IT) podrazumijevaju različiti elementi i vještine za
kreiranje, čuvanje i prenošenje informacija u
različitim vidovima. Poslovne organizacije ih
koriste u svrhu: (1) poboljšanja kvaliteta proizvoda i usluga, (2) poboljšanja efikasnosti i
efektivnosti, (3) povećanja produktivnosti,
(4) uštedu novca i energije, (5) uštedu vremena i (6) povećanja profita.
Information Technology Association off
Amerika (ITTA) definiše informacione tehnologije kao proučavanje, projektovanje, razvoj,
primjenu, podršku ili upravljanje informacionim sistemima zasnovanim na računarima,
posebno softverskih aplikacija i računarskog
hardvera (Stankić, 2014, str. 2).
Kao osnovne komponente informacionih
tehnologija Hanić i Krsmanović (2001, str. 29)
navode: (1) informaciju kao strategijski resurs
(uključujući znanje); (2) kompijuterski zasno-
It is difficult to give an exact definition of
information technology , but we can say that
the information technology (IT) involves different elements and skills for creating, storing and transmitting information in various
forms. Business organizations use them for
the purpose of: (1) improving the quality of
products and services, (2) improve the efficiency and effectiveness, (3) increase productivity, (4) save money and energy, (5) saving
time and (6) increase profits.
Information Technology Association off
America (ITTA) defines information technology as the study, design, development,
implementation, support or management of
information systems based on computers,
particularly software applications and computer hardware (Stankić, 2014, p. 2).
As a core component of information technology Hanić and Krsmanović (2001, p. 29)
reported: (1) information as a strategic resource
(including knowledge); (2) computer - based
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vane sisteme; (3) arhitekturu informacionih tehnologija usklađenu sa organizacijom; (4) razvoj
i rukovanje kompijuterskim aplikacijama; (5)
menadžment upravljanje.
Hanić i Krsmanović (2001, str. 29) takođe
navode da se kao glavne oblasti primjene informacionih tehnologija ističu: (1) upravljanje
podacima i informacijama; (2) razvoj i upravljanje aplikacijama; (3) upravljanje komunikacijama; (4) kompijutersku podršku operacijama; (5) industrijsku automatizaciju (kontrolu
procesa, sredstava i robotiku); (6) automatizaciju ofisa (kancelarija); (7) razvoj integrisanih
sistema upravljanja (CAD/CAM, CIM, FMS i
dr); (8) podršku odlučivanju i upravljanju poslovnim sistemom.
Razvoj i primjena informacionih tehnologija u mnogome mijenja način privređivanja i
život pojedinca. Razvoj informacionih tehnologija je prouzrokovao pojavu novih aplikacija i mreža ovih tehnologija, koje su značajno
promijenile način poslovanja i življenja. Stankić i Krsmanović (2009, str. 14) takođe navode da postoji trend da se poslovne aktivnosti
zasnovane na ovim tehnologijama premjeste
u zemlje u razvoju ili nerazvijene zemlje (zemlje sa niskim dohotkom). Zemlje sa nižim
dohotkom se uključuju u globalne tokove putem investiranja u informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije. Ovi trendovi su najprisutniji
u zemljama Azije (Indiji, Kini, Tajvanu, Maleziji) i evropskim zemljama u tranziciji.
U svijetu su različito razvijene i zastupljene
informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije i
sektori čije je poslovanje na njima zasnovano.
Stankić i Krsmanović (2009, str. 14) smatraju da je implementacija, difuzija i prisustvo
novih tehnologija u razvijenim privredama
na visokom nivou. Ove zemlje su ekonomski
rast ostvarile pod uticajem razvoja informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija.
Jedna od inovacija razvoja informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija internet se
smatra pokretačem promjena u društvu i privredi, od prikupljanja informacija preko posjedovanja i primjene znanja do rješavanja
pojedinih zadataka i ostvarivanja prednosti,
efikasnosti i boljih rezultata.
systems; (3) architecture of information technologies in corresspondence with the organization; (4) development and operated computing
applications; (5) management control.
Hanić and Krsmanović (2001, p. 29.) Also
noted that as the main field of application of
information technologies stand out: (1) management of data and information; (2) Development and management of applications; (3)
communications management; (4) Computer
support operations; (5) Industrial automation
(control processes, tools and robotics ); (6)
Office automation (office); (7) Development
of integrated management systems (CAD/
CAM, CIM, FMS, etc.); (8) Support decision
making and business management system.
The development and application of information technology in many ways changes business
and the life of an individual. The development of
information technology has caused the emergence
of new applications and the network of these technologies, which have significantly changed the
way of business and living. Stankić and Krsmanović (2009, p. 14.) also suggest that there is a trend
that business activities based on these technologies
are transferred to developing countries or undeveloped countries (with low-income). Countries with
lower income are included in the global flows of
the investment in information and communication
technology. These trends are most prevalent in
Asian countries (India, China, Taiwan, Malaysia)
and the European countries in transition.
In the world there are differently developed and represented information and communication technology
sectors, making them the main core of business establishment. Stankić and Krsmanović (2009, page 14.)
argue that implementation, diffusion, and the presence of new technologies in the developed economies
are at a high level. These countries have achieved
economic growth influenced by the development of
information and communication technologies.
One of the innovations in development of information and communication technologies internet
is considered a driving force for the changes in society and economy, from the point of collecting information through possession and applying knowledge all up to solving certain tasks and achieving
the benefits, efficiency and better results.
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U javnosti se sve više govori o informaciono-tehnološkoj industriji i njenom značaju,
što je rezultat velikog i eksplozivnog rasta
ovog segmenta privrede kako na globalnom
nivou tako i kod nas. Vladan Atanasijević
(2014) navodi da bi najveći generator tražnje
za informaciono-tehnološkom infrastrukturom trebalo da bude država. Uvođenjem
elektronskih servisa, državna administracija
postaje efikasnija, optimalnija i, prije svega,
transparentnija, uz direktan podsticaj IT sektoru.
The public is talking more and more about
the information-technology industry and its
importance, as a result of the large and explosive growth of this segment of the economy both globally and in our region. Vladan
Atanasijević (2014) states that the largest
generator of demand for information- technology infrastructure should just be a state.
With the introducion of electronic services,
public administration becomes more efficient,
more optimal, and above, all transparent, with
a direct incentive to the IT sector.
UTICAJ INFORMACIONE
TEHNOLOGIJE NA POSLOVNO
OKRUŽENJE
IMPACT OF INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY ON BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
U kreiranju novih proizvoda i usluga uloga
novih znanja i informacionih tehnologija je
nezaobilazna.
Hanić i Krsmanović (2001, str. 17) objasnili
su da se uloga informacionih tehnologija sastoji u tome što ona preduzeću omogućava:
visok stepen automatizacije i efikasnosti proizvodnje, decentralizaciju preduzeća, fleksibilan nastup na tržištu, real-time povezanost sa
dobavljačima i kupcima, ubrzanje isporuke i
bitno smanjenje proizvodnih i administrativnih troškova.
Informacije i informaciona tehnologija radikalno mijenjaju tradicionalni način rada, organizaciju i sistem komuniciranja u preduzeću
kao što su: promjene koje su donijele telekomunikacije, učenje i rad na daljinu, bankarska
plaćanja preko kućnog računara, elektronski
novac, elektronska kupovina i prodaja. Takođe je bitno pomenuti i ključni uticaj informacionih tehnologija na procese upravljanja i
odlučivanja, kao što su: DSS (Decision Suport
System) ili ES (Expert System) koji menadžerima svih organizacionih nivoa omogućavaju
donošenje najkvalitetnijih odluka. Stoga sve
poslovne organizacije koje su u svoje procese
uključili informacione tehnologije imaju značajne konkurentske prednosti na tržišu.
Informacija se danas smatra strateškim resursom, potencijalnim izvorom za sticanje
In creating new products and services, the
role of new knowledge and information technology is inevitable.
Hanić and Krsmanović (2001, p. 17) explained that the role of information technology adds to the fact that it allows the company:
a high degree of automation and production
efficiency, decentralization of the company,
a flexible approach to the market, real-time
connectivity with suppliers and customers,
accelerating delivery and significantly reducing production and administrative costs.
Information and information technology dramatically change the traditional way of working,
organization and communication system in the
enterprise, such as: the changes that have adopted telecommunications, learning and teleworking, banking payments on your home computer,
electronic cash, electronic buying and selling. It
is also important to mention the crucial impact of
information technology on management processes and decision-making, such as DSS (Decision
Suport System) or ES (Expert System) which allows managers from all organisations to make the
most qualative decisions. Therefore, all business
organisations which have included information
technology in their process have significant competitive advantages on the market.
Today, information is considered a strategic resource, a potential source for obtaining
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konkurentske prednosti. Efikasno obavljanje
svih ekonomskih djelatnosti sve više zavisi
od efikasne upotrebe raspoloživih podataka i
informacija.
Zoran Ćirić (2010, str. 42) navodi da svaki
organizacioni sistem mora imati informacioni
sistem koji prikuplja, skladišti, čuva, obrađuje
i, u skladu sa zahtjevima njegovih korisnika,
isporučuje potrebne im informacije za obavljanje ekonomske djelatnosti.
Razvoj informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije stvorio je mogućnosti efikasnog poslovanja na globalnom nivou. Stankić i Krsmanović (2001, str. 178) navode da u uslovima
jake konkurencije gdje postaju razlike kao na
primjer kod banaka, brokerskih firmi, finansijske organizacije su pod stalnim pritiskom da
zadrže konkurentsku prednost, smanje troškove, upravljaju rizikom, koriste tehnologiju kao
izvor konkurentske prednosti. Model globalne organizacije i jake konkurencije zahtijeva
novu koncepciju pristupa u obavljanju ekonomske djelatnosti. Jedna od ključnih tehnologija za obavljanje tih djelatnosti je internet.
Internet i njegovi servisi, među kojima se
posebno ističu World Wide Web i elektronska
pošta, široko je otvorio vrata bankarstvu i finansijama, trgovini, državnoj upravi, odbrani
i bezbijednosti zemlje, nauci i obrazovanju,
stvaraocima svih vrsta i svih nivoa, razmjeni
znanja, informisanju, druženju, zabavi i rekreaciji i mnogim drugim, manje složenim i manje
značajnim poslovima, omogućavajući im da
svoje aktivnosti racionalizuju, ubrzaju, poboljšaju, prilagode, uvećaju i prošire. Mogućnosti
su, dakle, tu i samo ih treba koristiti (Petrović,
2012, str. 10). Cilj je da se postigne više uz što
manje utrošenog vremena i radne snage.
Zemlje Evropske unije su još 1999. godine započele projekat e-Europe koji uključuje
dostupnost informacionog društava najvećem
dijelu stanovništva bez obzira na geografske
i socijalne razlike, kao i razvoj savremenog
načina realizacije javnih i zdravstvenih usluga, prilagođavanje obrazovnih sistema potrebama savremenog društva i prilagođavanje
poslovnih sistema savremenim uslovima poslovanja i zahtjevima poslovnog okruženja.
competitive advantages. Efficient performance of all economic activity is increasingly
dependent on efficient use of available data
and information.
Zoran Ćirić (2010, p. 42) states that each organizational system must have an information
system that collects, stores, maintains, processes,
and, in accordance with the requirements of its
users, it delivers the necessary information to carry out their economic activities.
The development of information and communication technologies has created effective business opportunities on a global scale.
Stankić and Krsmanović (2001, p. 178) report that in cases of strong competition where
differences appear, such as banks, brokerage
firms, financial institutions are under constant
pressure to maintain a competitive advantage,
reduce costs, manage risk, use technology as
a source of competitive advantage. Model of
the global organization and strong competition requires a new concept in pursuing economic activities. One of the key technologies
for performing these activities is the internet.
Internet and its services, amongst which
World Wide Web and e-mail mostly stand out,
have widely opened the door for banking and
finance, retail, government, defense and security of a country, science and education, the creators of all kinds and at all levels, exchange of
knowledge, information, socializing, entertainment and recreation, and many other, less complex and less important tasks, allowing them to
rationalize their activities, accelerate, enhance,
adapt, enlarge and expand. The possibilities are
there, therefore, they just need to be used (Petrović, 2012, p.10). The goal is to achieve more
with a lesser amount of time and labor.
The countries of the European union in 1999
had began a project called e-Europe, which includes access to information societies of the biggest area within a population regardless of geographical and social differences, as well as the
development of modern ways when realizing
public and health care favours, adapting educational systems to the needs of modern society and
adapting business systems to modern conditions
and requirements of the business environment.
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P. Pantić: UTICAJ INFORMACIONE TEHNOLOGIJE NA OBAVLJANJE EKONOMSKE DJELATNOSTI
Mnoge nacionalne ekonomije prepoznale
su informacione tehnologije kao glavni faktor
uticaja na ekonomski razvoj i inovativnost.
Sopstvenim ekonomskim strategijama i primjenom informacionih tehnologija u svim
aspektima društva, kao i promjenama koje
su ovom primjenom nastale, ove zemlje su
omogućile razvoj informacionog društva sa
tendencijom njegovog daljeg usmjeravanja i
usavršavanja ka iskorišćavanju potencijala
informacionih tehnologija za povećavanje efikasnosti rada, smanjenje troškova, ekonomski
rast, veću zaposlenost i podizanje kvaliteta života građana.
Danas gotovo nijedna moderna operacija
ne može uspiješno da se izvrši bez upotrebe
informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija.
Internet je postao sastavni dio društvene i
ekonomske strukture svake zemlje.
Sredstva
informaciono-komunikacionih
tehnologija omogućila su zaposlenima da
sami planiraju vrijeme kako bi posao obavili
što kvalitetnije. Zahvaljujući primjeni informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija radnici
mogu da obavljaju poslove i od kuće. Razvojem informacionih tehnologija i njihovom
adekvatnom primjenom dolazi do stvaranja
mnoštva novih poslova ili se iz postojećeg
posla stvara novi, odnosno unaprijeđuje tradicionalni posao.
Preduzeća treba da investiraju u informaciono-komunikacionu opremu kako bi se razvili
efikasniji načini obavljanja poslovnih aktivnosti. Cilj je da se optimalno iskoriste informacione tehnologije da bi se ostvario maksimalan
rezultat uz što manje utoršenog vremena.
Many national economies have recognized
information technology as a major factor of
influence on the economic development and
innovation. With own economic strategies
and the application of information technology
in all aspects of society, as well as the changes
that have occurred with this application, these
countries have enabled the development of
information society with its tendency for further guidance and training to exploit the potential of information technology to increase
efficiency, reduce costs, economic growth,
increase employment and improve the quality
of life for citizens.
Today, almost no modern surgery can successfully be carried out without the use of information and communication technologies.
Internet has become an integral part of the social and economic structure of each country.
The means of information and communication technologies have enabled employees to
plan their time and get the work done more
efficiently. Due to the use of ICT workers can
perform tasks from home. With the development of information technology and applying
them to be carried out through adequate leads
for the formation of many new employment
opportunities or to enhance an existing business in order to create a new one, in fact upgrading the traditional job.
Companies need to invest in information
and communication equipment in order to develop more efficient ways of doing business.
The aim is to make optimal use of information technology, in order to achieve maximum
results with minimum time spent.
UTICAJ INFORMACIONE
TEHNOLOGIJE NA STVARANJE NOVE
EKONOMIJE
IMPACT OF INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY ON THE CREATION OF A
NEW ECONOMY
Danas živimo u vremenu naprednih tehnologija i promjena koje utiču na transformaciju privrede, društva i života. Brz tehnološki
progres u sektoru informacionih tehnologija
pokrenuo je nagli proces stvaranja nove ekonomije. Nova ekonomija je promijenila eko-
Today we live in a time of advanced technology and changes that affect the transformation
of economy, society and life. Rapid technological progress in the information technology sector has launched a rapid process of
creating a new economy. The new economy
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nomski sistem na globalnom nivou. Razvoj i
primjena informacionih tehnologija kreirali
su novu ekonomiju koja predstavlja mnoštvo
kvalitativnih i kvantitativnih promjena koje
su u posljednjih dvadeset godina transformisale strukturu, funkcionalnost i pravila u ekonomiji.
Američka privreda je krajem devedesetih
godina XX vijeka ostvarila značajan privredani rast zahvaljujući primjeni informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija, i od tada je
počeo da se koristi naziv “nova ekonomija”.
Naziva se i digitalnom ekonomijom, informacionom ekonomijom a sve popularnije i internet ekonomijom. Svi nazivi se odnose na uticaj informacionih tehnologija na obavljanje
svih ekonomskih djelatnosti.
Nova ekonomija obezbjeđuje razne mogućnosti preduzećima da unaprijede organizaciju
i strukturu poslovanja. Ona predstavlja osnov
za promjene u ekonomskim djelatnostima,
sa mogućnostima kreiranja novih pravila za
postizanje produktivnosti, zaposlenosti, ekonomskog rasta i inovacija u svim sektorima.
Osim navedenih smanjenja troškova i ostalih mogućnosti, nova ekonomija obezbjeđuje
smanjivanje ili ukidanje geografskih, industrijskih i korporativnih barijera i granica. Potrošači u novoj ekonomiji imaju veliki izbor
pristupa proizvodima i uslugama.
Zbog pozitivnih rezultata, većina preduzeća
povećava investicije u informacione tehnologije, unapređuje organizaciju kako bi smanjila
troškove, povećala efikasnost i fleksibilnost,
efikasnije upotrijebila tehnologije i poboljšala
donošenje poslovnih odluka.
has changed the economic system globally.
The development and application of information technology has created a new economy
that represents a multitude of qualitative and
quantitative changes in the last twenty years
which have transformed the structure, function and rules of the economy.
The U.S. economy in the late nineties of the
twentieth century made significant economic growth through the use of information and
communication technology, and since then has
started to use the term “new economy”. Also
referred to as the digital economy, the information economy and the increasingly popular internet economy. All product names are related
to the impact of information technology and on
the performance of all economic activity.
New economy provides a variety of options
to companies in order to improve the organization and structure of the business. It is the
basis of change in economic activity, with the
possibility of creating new rules for achieving
productivity, employment, economic growth
and innovation in all sectors. In addition to
the above cost reduction and other possibilities, the new economy provides a reduction
or elimination of geographic, industrial and
corporate barriers and borders. Consumers in
the New Economy have access to a wide selection of products and services.
Due to the positive results, most companies
increase investment in information technology, promote the organization to reduce costs,
increased efficiency and flexibility, effectively used the technology and improved business
decision making.
Internet ekonomija
Internet economy
Stankić i Krsmanović (2009, str. 28) smatraju da internet predstavlja uzorak i posljedicu nove ekonomije. On je proizvod tehnoloških i ekonomskih promjena i stvaranja
novih mjera i pravila. Nova ekonomija je
povezana sa mrežnim efektima - što je veći
broj korisnika u mreži, to je vrijednost mreže veća. Internet je danas jedan od najefektivnijih resursa koje preduzeće koristi da bi
Stankić and Krsmanović (2009, p. 28) argue
that the internet is a pattern and effect of the
new economy. It is a product of technological and economic change and the creation of
new bounds and rules. The new economy is
associated with network effects - the higher
the number of users in the network, the greater the value of the network. The Internet is
now one of the most effective resources that
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povećalo efikasnost i efektivnost poslovanja.
Milićević (2002, str. 24) navodi da internet
i nove informacione tehnologije dovode do
restruktuiranja tržišta na globalnom nivou i
pojedinih industrijskih i uslužnih djelatnosti.
Ovo utiče na redefinisanje načina obavljanja
poslovanja i predstavlja izazov za konvencionalno ekonomsko razmišljanje. Internet je
doveo do značajnih promijena u ekonomiji.
Internet tehnologije predstavljaju fundamentalni preokret u sposobnosti prikupljanja,
obradi, čuvanja i transferisanju informacija.
Razmjena informacija putem interneta i intraneta se sada može posmatrati kao izvor kreiranja vrijednosti, za razliku od ranijeg shvatanja
da informacija isključivo predstavlja trošak.
Internet je doveo do promjene obavljanja
ekonomske djelatnosti, kao i balansa moći
između proizvođača, posrednika i potrošača.
Danas kupac postaje “kralj” nove ekonomije.
Rastući dio ekonomske vrijednosti je proizvod informacionih tehnologija. Nova ekonomija zahtijeva brzinu, fleksibilnost i inovativnost. Tradicionalna preduzeća moraju da
promijene svoje poslovne procese da bi ostala
konkurentna u novim uslovima obavljanja
ekonomske djelatnosti.
Đorđević (2012, str. 189) objašnjava da
kako ključni simboli savremene ekonomije,
odnosno okruženja koje postaje opšte mjesto
za realizaciju najrazličitijih aktivnosti i procesa, postaju cyber-prostor, računari, računarske mreže, informacioni tokovi i informacioni
sadržaji u digitalnoj formi, IT su tehnologije
koje su glavni nosioci ekonomskog razvoja i
modernizacije društva. Zato mnoge zemlje,
koje su već napravile značajan napredak u
pravcu razvoja mrežne ekonomije, imaju potrebu, ali i zadatak, da i dalje investiraju u razvoj i implementaciju ICT.
a company uses to increase efficiency and effectiveness of business.
Milićević (2002, p. 24.) states that the internet and new information technologies led
to the restructuring of global markets and individual industrial and service activities. This
has an impact on redefining the way business
is accomplished and is a challenge to conventional economic thinking. The Internet has led
to significant changes in the economy. Internet technologies represent a fundamental shift
in the ability of collecting, processing, storing
and transferring information. The exchange
of information over the Internet and Intranet
can now be seen as a source of value creation,
as opposed to the earlier understanding that
the information represents only an expense.
The Internet has led to changes in the performance of economic activities, as well as the
balance of power between producers , intermediaries and consumers. Today, the buyer becomes the “king” of the new economy.Growing part of the economic value is the product
of information technology. The new economy
requires speed, flexibility and innovation. Traditional companies have to change their business processes in order to remain competitive
in the new conditions of the economic activity.
Đorđević (2012, p. 189) explains that the key
symbols of modern economy, in fact, that the
environment is a common place for implementing various activities and processes, becoming
cyber - space, computers, computer networks,
information flows and information content in
digital form, IT technologies are the main leaders of economic development and modernization of society. Therefore, many countries that
have already made significant progress towards
the development of network economy, have the
need, but also the task to continue to invest in
the development and implementation of ICT.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Informaciono-komunikacione tehnologije,
uključujući fiksne i mobilne telefone, faks,
računare, internet i druga informaciono-komunikaciona oprema transformišu poslovanje
Information and communication technologies, including fixed and mobile phones, fax,
computers, internet and other information and
communication equipment transform business
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i privredu u cjelini, dovode do sniženja troškova, do porasta efikasnosti, donošenju ključnih poslovnih odluka, doprinose povećanju
mogućnosti da se proizvodi i usluge prilagode zahtjevima kupaca i da se ubrza razmjena.
Pored toga, ove tehnologije su omogućile razvoj novih proizvoda i djelatnosti, dok je korišćenje interneta dovelo do nastanka mnogih
novih firmi širom svijeta i do otvaranja novih
radnih mjesta.
Živimo u vremenu naprednih tehnologija
koje su dovele do promjena koje utiču na
transformaciju privrede, društva i života.
Veoma brz tehnološki progres u oblasti informaciono-komunikacionih tehnologija pokrenuo je proces stvaranja nove ekonomije,
novog rasta i razvoja privrede, i značajno
uticao na pozitivno obavljanje ekonomske
djelatnosti.
and the economy as a whole, lead to cost reduction, increase of efficiency, making key business decisions, which contribute to increasing
the possibility of products and services to be
adapted to the requirements of customers and
to accelerate the exchange. In addition, these
technologies have enabled the development of
new products and activities, and the use of Internet has led to the emergence of many new
companies around the world creating new jobs.
We live in a time of advanced technologies
which have led to changes that affect the transformation of the economy, society and life. A
very rapid technological progress in the field
of information and communication technologies has initiated the process of creating the
new economy, new growth and economic development, and significantly impacted on the
positive performance of economic activity.
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PRIKAZ KNJIGE - BOOK REVIEW
Mahmutefendić, T. (2014). Economic Performance in South-East European
Transition Countries after the Fall of Communism. Bloomington: Xlibris
Mahmutefendić, T. (2014). Ekonomske performance u zemljama tranzicije u
Jugoistočnoj Evropi nakon pada komunizma. Bloomington: Xlibris
Mr Vesna Đukić
DOI 10.7251/OIK1402012Dj, UDK 338.124.4:316.334(4-12)
Ekonomske performanse zemalja u tranziciji Jugoistočne Evrope nakon pada komunizma, danas i samo nekoliko godina ranije,
izgledaju prilično različito. I svet u celini, a
pogotovo Evropa, ni iz daleka nisu na ekonomskom kursu i u razvojnom zamahu, u
kome su se nalazili do 2009. Balkan je po
autoru ove interesantne monografije, oduvijek bio najsiromašniji dio Evrope, uz mogući
izuzetak u kratkom periodu tokom šezdesetih
godina, kada su Grčka i Jugoslavija, uspješnim privrednim razvojem dospjele pri dno
liste razvijenih zemalja. Značajan faktor koji
je doprinosio relativnoj zaostalosti Balkana,
smatra autor, bila je njegova fragmentiranost.
Nakon Drugog svjetskog rata fragmentiranost
Balkana bila je četvorostruka; interno politička, eksterno politicka, interno ekonomska
i eksterno ekonomska. Evo kako on o tome
utvrđuje sledeće teze:
1. Grčka i Turska bile su pretežno kapitalističke zemlje sa političkim sistemom
parlamentarne demokratije, koji je u dva
navrata bio prekidan vojnom diktaturom.
Ostale četiri zemlje, Jugoslavija, Albanija, Bugarska i Rumunija bile su komunističke zemlje s jednopartijskim političkim
sistemom.
2. Sa stanovišta spoljne politike Balkanske zemlje su bile još više podijeljene.
Grčka i Turska bile su članice NATO-a.
Bugarska i Rumunija bile su članice
Varšavskog pakta, a Jugoslavija je bila
nesvrstana zemlja. Albanija nije pripadala nijednom političkom savezu. Do
1961. imala je intenzivne političke veze
sa Sovjetskim Savezom, a poslije toga
sa Kinom.
Economic performance of the South-East European transition countries look different today
from several years ago. Also, world in general and
especially Europe are far from a development trajectory in which they were before 2009. According to the author of this interesting monograph the
Balkans have always been the poorest region in
Europe, with possible exception of a short period in 1960’s when a successful economic development placed Greece and Yugoslavia near the
bottom list of developed countries. An important
factor which contributed to a relative backwardness of the region, according to the author, was its
fragmentation. After the WWII a fragmentation
of the Balkans was four-fold. The countries of the
Balkan Peninsula had different internal political
system, external political links and associations,
different economic systems and different patterns
of economic links with the rest of the world. Here
is how he corroborates his theses:
1. Greece and Turkey were mainly capitalist
countries and parliamentary democracies
and with multi-party political systems,
which were on two occasions interrupted
by military dictatorships. The other four
countries, namely Albania, Bulgaria, Romania and Yugoslavia were communist
countries with one-party system.
2. From the point of view of external politics the Balkans were even more divided. Greece and Turkey were members
of NATO. Romania and Bulgaria were
members of the Warsaw Pact. Yugoslavia
was a non-aligned country, whilst Albania
did not belong to any pact or association
of countries. It had intensive links with
the Soviet Union until 1961 and, after this
point with China.
185
3. Grčka i Turska bile su trzišne privrede, uz
značajnu ulogu vlade i javnog sektora u
privrednom životu. Albanija, Bugarska i
Rumunija imale su centralnoplansku privredu. Jugoslavija je imala polutržišnu,
relativno otvorenu ekonomiju, koja je sadržavala elemente oba sistema.
4. Grčka i Turska su bile članice OECD-a i
imale su najintenzivnije ekonomske veze
sa ostalim kapitalističkim zemljama. Bugarska i Rumunija bile su clanice SEV-a
(Saveta za uzajamnu ekonomsku pomoć
socijalističkih sistema u koordinaciji Sovjetskog Saveza) i održavale su najintenzivnije ekonomske veze sa ostalim
komunističkim zemljama, po principima
uzajamnosti, a ne na tržišnim kriterijima.
5. Jugoslavija je bila najotvorenija komunistička
zemlja, ostvarujući intenzivnu ekonomsku saradnju i sa komunističkim i sa kapitalističkim
zemljama, posebno sa Sovjetskim Savezom,
Zapadnom Njemačkom i Italijom. Albanija je
bila zatvorena zemlja sa zanemarljivim nivoom ekonomske saradnje sa ostalim zemljama.
Kolaps komunizma doživljen je od strane
međunarodne zajednice kao zlatna prilika da
se Balkan integriše i pretvori u prosperitetni
dio Evrope. Uvođenje višepartijskog sistema
i parlamentarne demokratije politički je ujedinilo region. Tranzicija od centralnoplanske,
a u slučaju Jugoslavije od polutrzižne ka tržišnoj privredi, imala je, između ostalog i cilj
da se region ekonomski ujedini. Tome su doprinijele i razne inicijative kao sto su Stabilization and Association Pact, te bilateralni trgovinski ugovori između balkanskih zemalja.
Izgled članstva u Evropskoj Uniji i NATO-u
trebalo je da posluži kao dodatni stimulans integraciji balkanskih zemalja. Uz to, međunarodna zajednica pružala je tehničku, ekonomsku i finansijsku pomoć u iznosu od nekoliko
desetina milijardi dolara, tokom prve decenije
XXI vijeka.
Sa današnjeg stanovišta veoma je upitna
uspješnost ovih poduhvata. Slovenija, kao bivši najseverniji i najrezvijeniji deo Jugoslavije,
u analizi se obično isključuje iz ove grupe (balkanskih) zemalja. Mada se dio njenog teritori186
3. Greece and Turkey were market economies with their governments playing
a large role in their economies, Bulgaria and Romania were centrally planned
economies. Yugoslavia was a semi-market economy containing the elements of
both the systems.
4. Greece and Turkey were the members of
OECD and had the most intensive economic links with capitalist countries. Romania and Bulgaria were the members of
COMECON and had the most intensive
economic relations with the other communist countries, according to principles
of mutual co-operation and not according
to market criteria.
5. Yugoslavia was the most open communist country with intensive economic
links with both, capitalist and communist countries, especially the Soviet Union, West Germany and Italy. Albania
was a closed country with a negligible
level of economic relations with the rest
of the world.
The collapse of communism was viewed by the
international community as a golden opportunity
to integrate the region and turn it into a prosperous
part of Europe. The introduction of parliamentary
democracy and multiparty system politically unified the region. Transition from centrally planned
and in the case of Yugoslavia from a semi-market
to a market economy had, amongst the others the
aim of removing the differences in economic systems which existed between the region’s countries.
Various initiatives, such as the Stabilisation and
Association Pact and bilateral trade agreements
were supposed to contribute to this aim. The possibility of European Union and the NATO membership was supposed to be the additional impetus
to the region’s integration. In addition the international community offered technical, economic and
financial aid amounting tens of billions of dollars
during the first decade of the XXI century.
From today’s point of view the success of these
attempts seems to be questionable. Slovenia, as the
most northern and most developed part of Yugoslavia, is usually excluded from the analyses related to the Balkan countries. Although part of her
ja nalazi na Balkanskom poluostrvu istorijski,
kulturno i prema nivou razvijenosti Slovenija
pripada Srednjoj Evropi. U manjoj mjeri to
vazi i za Hrvatsku.
Međutim, Hrvatska ima neke zajedničke karakteristike sa zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope.
Zbog toga se ona nekad klasificira kao Srednjoevropska, a nekad kao zemlja Jugoistocne
Evrope. Autor je, radi korektnosti komparativne alnalize uključio i Hrvatsku u grupu zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope, čiji razvoj prati.
Nakon raspada druge Jugoslavije, koji se
zbijao prilično traumatično, uz oružane sukobe i ogromne ljudske i ekonomske gubitke
tokom 1991-1992, aprila 1992, Srbija i Crna
Gora formirale su novu drzavu, Saveznu Republiku Jugoslaviju. Ona je opstala pod ovim
imenom do 2002, nakon čega je pretvorena
u labavu uniju dvije republike, Državnu zajednicu Srbija i Crna Gora. Razlike u pogledu
ekonomske i druge politike među njima, kulminirale su 1997, da bi Srbija kao novčanu
jedinicu zadžzala prethodno jugoslovenski
(sada srpski) dinar, a Crna Gora unilateralno
uvela euro kao svoju valutu. U 2006. Crna
Gora je, nakon referenduma postala nezavisna država. Zbog toga je, kao analitička kategorija, grupa zemalja u tranziciji u Jugoistočnoj Evropi obuhvatala do 2006. sedam,
a nakon toga osam država: Albaniju, Bosnu
i Hercegovinu, Bugarsku, Crnu Goru, Hrvatsku, Makedoniju, Rumuniju i Srbiju.
U predgovoru knjige autor navodi ogromne
probleme s kojima su se ove zemlje suočile tokom devedesetih godina XX veka, sto
je inače odgodilo reforme za čitavu deceniju. Ovi problem nisu bili prebrođeni okončanjem rata u Hrvatskoj i Bosni i Hercegovini.
Uslijedio je 78-dnevni rat koji je NATO vodio
protiv Srbije u 1999. godini. Ostale tri zemlje
koje nisu iskusile rat, Albanija, Bugarska i
Rumunija doživjele su političke i finansijske
skandale. Po riječima Džona Keneta Galbrajta, bilo je to doba u kome je jedan jak i nesavršen sistem zamijenjen odsustvom bilo kakvog sistema. Nakon porođajnih muka tokom
devedesetih godina, početkom ovog vijeka
zemlje tranzicije u Jugoistocnoj Evropi ko-
territory is situated in the Balkan Peninsula, historically, culturally and according to the level of
development Slovenia belongs to Central Europe.
To a lesser degree this applies to Croatia as well.
However, Croatia shares some characteristics with South-East Europe. This is why Croatia is sometimes classified as Central European
and sometimes as South-East European country. The author has for the sake of correctness
of the comparative analysis included Croatia in
the group of South-East European countries.
After the break-up of the second Yugoslavia,
which occurred traumatically, with arm conflicts and huge human and economic losses
during 1991-1992, in April 1992 Serbia and
Montenegro declared a new state, The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The state remained
under this name until 2002, when it was transformed into a loose union of the two republics
called the state union of Serbia and Montenegro. The differences between economic and
other policies between them culminated in 1997
when Serbia retained previously the Yugoslav
(and now the Serbian) dinar and Montenegro
unilaterally introduced the euro as its currency.
In 2006 Montenegro seceded and became an
independent state after the referendum. This is
why, until 2006 the group of transition countries as analytical category included seven, and
after 2006 eight states: Albania, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania and Serbia.
In the preface of the book the author mentioned
enormous problems which these countries encountered during the 1990’s causing a postponement of reforms for the whole decade. The plight
of the South-East European countries did not
finish with the end of war in Croatia and Bosnia
and Herzegovina in 1995. The wars of Yugoslav
succession had their sequel in 1999 when NATO
waged a 78-day war against Serbia. The other
three countries, which did not experience war,
namely Albania, Bulgaria and Romania, went
through political and financial scandals. In the
words of John Kenneth Galbraith, one strong and
imperfect system was replaced by the absence
of any system. After teething pains during the
1990’s the South-East European transition coun187
načno su pristupile reformama. Ove reforme
prošle su kroz tri faze: „trzišno omogućavajuce” (vreme uspostavljanja tržišta); trzišno
produbljujuće (koje su omogućavale razvoj i
širenje tržišta) i tržišno održavajuće (radi održanja i razvoja tržišta u celini).
Prva grupa reformi je, po autoru, najlakša i
najbrže se sprovodi. Ona uključuje liberalizaciju
cijena, domaće i spoljne trgovine i privatizaciju
malih preduzeca. Druga grupa reformi se sastoji od privatizacije velikih preduzeća i imovine i
uspostavljanje finansijskih tržišta, novih bankarskih i nebankarskih finansijskih poslova kao što
je lizing, institucionalnih reformi osiguranja, kao
i uspostavljanje novih neobaveznih, penzionih i
imovinskih fondova. Treću grupu reformi je najteže sprovesti. Ona uključuje reforme u upravljanju preduzećima, politiku zaštite konkurencije i
infrastrukturne reforme u pet sektora: električna
energija, željeznice, ceste, telekomunikacije i
distribucija vode. Ova grupa takodjer pokriva
sektorske reforme kao što su one u trgovini, carinama, kao i poboljšanje kvaliteta regulatornog
mehanizma, reforma privatnog sektora.
Sa implementacijom prve i druge grupe reformi i uz priliv jednokratne pomoći i zajmova
sa Zapada, a u globalnom okruženju cikličnog
uspona u svjetskoj privredi, zemlje tranzicije u
Jugoistočnoj Evropi ostvarile su snažan i kontinuiran rast u periodu od 2000. do 2008, ali
je on prekinut recesijom 2009. Prema autoru,
pomenute reforme vezane za tranziciju su do
sada proizvele pozitivne i negativne rezultate.
Pozitivni rezultati ogledaju se u sledećem:
1. dinamičniji rast u poređenju sa centralnoevropskim, baltičkim i zemljama Evropske unije. To je omogućilo izvjesno smanjivanje jaza u nivou razvijenosti, mada
ce biti potrebno mnogo decenija uspješnog privrednog razvoja da bi se postigla
puna realna konvergencija;
2. efikasnija monetarna politika, koja je bila uspješna u obuzdavanju endemske inflacije, i njenog
smanjivanja do istorijski najnižih vrijednosti;
3. odgovarajuća politika deviznog kursa,
bilo u formi valutnog odbora, vezivanja
nacionalne valute za evro, unilateralnog
188
tries finally embraced reforms. These reforms
went through three stages: market enabling (the
time of market establishment); market-deepening (which enabled growth and expansion of
markets) and market-maintaining (for the sake of
maintaining and development of markets).
Market-enabling reforms are the easiest
and quickest to implement. They include
price, domestic and foreign trade liberalization and a privatization of small enterprises.
Market-deepening reforms include the privatization of large companies and assets and the
strengthening of banking and non-banking financial institutions such as leasing, pension
and equity funds. Market-sustaining reforms
are the most difficult to carry out. They involve governance and enterprise reforms,
competition policy and infrastructure reform
in five sectors –electricity, railways, roads,
telecommunications, and water (including
waste water). They also cover issues such as
commercialization, tariff reforms, quality of
the regulatory framework and involvement in
the private sector.
With the first and second stages of the reform firmly in place and with the flow of aid
and loans from the West, in a global environment of cyclical upturn in the world economy, the South East European countries experienced a vigorous and sustained growth from
2000 to 2008, before the recession in 2009.
Transition to free market economy has so far
produced positive and negative results.
Positive results are evident in the following:
1. More dynamic growth than in Central European and Baltic States and the European Union. This has enabled some catching-up to take
place, however there is still a huge difference in
the level of development and many decades of
successful economic development are needed
in order to achieve a full real convergence;
2. A prudent monetary policy which was successful in tackling inflation and decreasing
it to historically lowest levels
3. Sound exchange rate policy, whether in the form
of currency board, pegging currency to the euro,
unilateral adoption of the euro or managed float-
usvajanja evra ili upravljanih fleksibilnih
kurseva;
4. uravnotežena fiskalna politika koja je
dovela javne finansije u raspon između
umjerenog deficita i umjerenog suficita.
Na polju javnih finansija zemlje tranzicije
u Jugoistočnoj Evropi stoje bolje od većine ostalih evropskih zemalja.
Negativni rezultati ogledaju se u sledećem:
1. visok deficit platnog bilansa koji povećava ranjivost zemalja tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi i njihovu zavisnost od stranih izvora finansiranja;
2. rastući spoljni dug koji u nekim zemljama dostize nepodnošljive razmjere, u odnosu na BDP;
3. visoka i perzistentna nezaposlenost, koja
u nekim zemljama dostize i 40% ukupno
radno sposobnog stanovnistva;
4. rastući jaz između bogatih i siromašnih građana i brzi porast udela stanovnistva koje se
nalazi u zoni apsolutnog siromastva.
Ove dvije poslednje negativne posljedice tranzicije najviše zabrinjavaju i uzrok su širokog
nezadovoljstva izazvanog ukupnim konsekvencama reformi, kao i prelaza ka trzišnoj privredi.
Mahmutefendićeva knjiga je podijeljena na jedanaest poglavlja. Autor je prvim
poglavljem obuhvatio ekonomske performanse u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope u
periodu od 2001. do 2003. Razlog za to je
što je to bio sam početak tranzicije cijelog
regiona u kome je prevladala dinamika unutrašnjih faktora, tako da su zemlje regiona
samo marginalno osjetile efekat globalnih
ekonomskih promjena. Pri tome je bitno i to
što su podaci iz ovog perioda oskudni i ponekad protivrječni, usled reformi statistike,
ali je taj problem u manjoj mjeri izražen i u
narednim godinama.
Drugo poglavlje tretira makroekonomsku
dinamiku u zemljama tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi u 2004, a treće poglavlje posvećeno je intraregionalnoj trgovini u ovim zemljama. Visoke deficite platnog bilansa zemalja
tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi autor dovodi
u vezu s niskim nivoom intraregionalne trgovine, što je u suprotnosti s tzv. gravity mo-
ing. This policy brought stability and in some
cases the appreciation of the real exchange rate
4. A prudent fiscal policy which brought
government balances into range between
moderate deficits and moderate surpluses. In this respect South- East European
countries fare better than most of the other European countries
Negative results are most evident in the following:
1. Large external imbalances which increase
the vulnerability of South East European
countries and their dependence on foreign
sources of finances,
2. Rising foreign debt which in some countries is approaching unsustainable levels
3. High and persistent unemployment which
in some countries reaches forty percent of
the workforce
4. A widening gap between rich and
poor and a sharp increase in absolute
poverty
It is these last two items which are the
main cause for concern and the main reason for widespread dissatisfaction with the
transition.
Mahmutefendic’s book has eleven chapters.
The first one analyses economic performance in
South - East European countries during the period of 2001-2003. There were two reasons why
this has been treated as a single period Firstly,
this was the beginning of economic transition
for the whole region in which the dynamics of
internal factors prevailed and the transitional
countries of South East Europe were only marginally affected by the external environment.
Secondly, data and sources for this period can
be scarce and sometimes contradictory in nature
(this might, however, be the case for the later
period, albeit to a lesser extent).
The second chapter deals with macroeconomic dynamics in SEE transition countries in 2004,
while the third chapter follows the patterns of intra-regional and inter-regional trade in SEE transition countries. Large deficits of the balance of
payments in the South-East European transition
countries the author explained by a low level of
intra-regional trade, which contradicts so called
189
delom. Nizak nivo međusobne trgovine autor
objašnjava jednim privremenim faktorom,
raspadom Jugoslavije i trajnijim činiocima
kao sto su slaba bilateralna saradnja, necarinske barijere i slab kvalitet infrastrukture.
Poglavlja četiri, pet, šest i sedam analiziraju
neprekinuti prosperitet u zemljama tranzicije
u Jugoistočnoj Evropi. Poglavlja osam i devet
bave se svjetskom recesijom i njenim uticajem
na zemlje tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi.
Deseto poglavlje analizira uticaj tranzicije
na blagostanje i distribuciju dohotka u zemljama tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj Evropi. Istraživanje pokazuje da su obrazovanje i zdravstvo,
dvije najsvjetlije tačke iz nasleđa komunistickog sisitema, postali žrtve tranzicije. Standardi u zdravstvu i obrazovanju su drastično pali,
kako zbog pada ekonomske aktivnosti, koja
se dešavala u poslednjoj deceniji XX vijeka,
tako i zbog smanjenja postotka BDP koji se
izdvaja za ove dvije djelatnosti, a korupcija
je zahvatala svaku od ovih službi, uporedo sa
deregulacijom, privatizacijom i rastućim ekonomskim teškoćama. Prelazak sa komandne
na tržišnu privredu i masovna privatizacija
doveli su do ogromnog društvenog raslojavanja i povećanja socijalnih razlika, tj. stvaranja uskog sloja izuzetno bogatih i drastičnog
povećanja postotka stanovništva koji živi u
apsolutnom siromaštvu. Kao rezultat ovih
procesa, danas je svega 20% stanovnistva zadovoljno rezultatima tranzicije.
Zaključno, jedanaesto poglavlje knjige nosi
naslov “Rezultati tranzicije su razočaravajuci
– da li je komunizam sve u svemu bio loš?”.
U ovom poglavlju učinjen je pokušaj balansiranja pristupa analizi dva (prethodno isključiva) sistema ekonomije i društvenih vrijednosti.
Autor, zbog toga, aposteriori navodi prednosti
jednog i drugog društvenog poretka.
Kao prednosti kapitalizma autor navodi 1.
ekonomsku efikasnost I uravnotezeniji ekonomski rast, 2. demokratiju i političke slobode I 3. pravnu drzavu i vladavinu prava.
Kao prednosti komunizma navode se 1.
ravnomjernija raspodjela dohotka, b. bolja
snabdjevenost bazičnim dobrima i elemen-
190
gravity model. According to the author this is
caused by one temporary factor, the break-up
of the former Yugoslavia, and more permanent
ones such as weak bilateral relations, non-tariff
barriers and poor infrastructure.
The chapters four to seven analyse uninterrupted prosperity in South-East European
transition countries. Chapters eight and nine
deal with the world recession and its impact
on SEE transition countries.
The chapter ten analyses the impact of transition on welfare and distribution of income
in SEE transition countries. Research shows
that education and health system, two the
brightest spots inherited from the communist regime, became the victims of transition.
Standards in health and education systems
significantly fell, partly because of contracted economic activity in the 1990’s and partly
because of lower proportion of GDP directed
towards these two sectors. In addition these
two sectors were plagued with corruption
which followed deregulation, privatisation
and increased economic problems. Transition
from a command economy to a market economy and a large-scale privatisation increased
social polarisation and social differences, i.e.
the creation of a narrow layer of extremely
rich and enormous increase of the proportion
of population living in absolute poverty. As a
result of these processes only 20% of population is satisfied with the results of transition.
Concluding eleventh chapter of the book is
entitled: ‘The Results of Transition are disappointing –Was Communism altogether bad?’ In
this chapter the author attempted to give a more
balanced analysis of two (previously excluding)
systems of economy and social values. Because
of this, the author ex-post lists the advantages
and disadvantages of both the systems.
According to the author the advantages of capitalism are 1. Economic efficiency and a more
balanced growth,2 .Democracy and political
freedoms and 3. A rule of law and a lawful state
The advantages of communism, according to the author, are 1. More equal distribution of income, 2. Better provision of the
tarnim potrebama i 3. sigurnost zaposlenja i
ravnopravnost među polovima.
Autor posebno analizira neke od razloga
nezadovoljstva tranzicijom. Oni uključuju 1.
krizu trećeg puta, 2. nemogućnost razlikovanja pojmova kapitaliste i preduzetnika–mešetara (tajkuna) 3. pogrešna poređenja između
kapitalističkih i komunistickih zemalja, odnosno previđanje činjenice da su potonje uvijek
bile razvijenije i 4. filozofski problem inkompatibilnosti konačnih vrijednosti, tj. koliziju
između sigurnosti i egalitarizma na jednoj, i
slobode na drugoj strani.
Knjiga ima tri dodatka. U prvom je data
kratka uporedna analiza ekonomskog rasta u
Jugoslaviji i njenim zemljama nasljednicama.
Autor koristi četiri kriterija u svojoj analizi:
1. brzinu obnove nakon ratova, 2. apsolutne
stope rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda, 3. relativne stope rasta BDP i 4. mjesto na ljestvici
svjetskog ekonomskog razvoja. Sva četiri kriterija pokazuju znatno veću uspješnost Jugoslavije u odnosu na svoje zemlje nasljednice.
Drugi dodatak naslovljen je “Makroekonomske
performanse u zemljama tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj
Evropi u devedesetim godinama”. Ovaj dodatak
sadrži šest tabela: 1. Rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda, 2. Nezaposlenost kao postotak radno sposobnog stanovnistva, 3. Inflacija, mjerena postotkom
porasta potrosačkih cijena, 4. Budzetski bilans, kao
postotak BDP 5. Platni bilans, kao postotak BDP I
6. Strane direktne investicije u milionima dolara.
Treći dodatak daje indekse realnog brutodomaćeg
proizvoda, u osam zemalja tranzicije u Jugoistočnoj
Evropi, uzimajući kao osnovicu 1989. godinu.
Većina poglavlja podijeljena je na tri ili četiri
dijela. U prvom dijelu data je analiza globalnih
ekonomskih performansi. U drugom dijelu autor
se bavi ekonomskim performansama u Evropskoj Uniji. On navodi značaj Evropske Unije kao
glavnog trgovinskog partnera zemalja tranzicije
u Jugoistočnoj Evropi. Ekonomska ekspanzija
u Evropskoj Uniji dovodi do povećanja tražnje
za proizvodima iz Jugoistočne Evrope. To prouzrokuje povećanje izvoza iz zemalja tranzicije
u Jugoistočnoj Evropi, sto se putem multiplikatora efektuira u natproporcionalnom povećanju
merit goods and 3. Job security and equality
of genders
The author analyses some of the reasons of
disappointment with transition. They include
1. Crisis of the third way, 2. Inability to distinguish between capitalists and entrepreneurs,
3. Wrong comparisons between capitalist and
communist countries, i.e. overlooking the
fact that the former have always been more
developed and 4. Philosophical problem of
the incompatibility of the ultimate values, i.e.
a collision between security and equality on
one hand and freedom on the other.
The book has three appendixes. In the first
one a brief comparative analysis of economic
growth in Yugoslavia and its successor states is
given. The author uses four criteria in his analysis: 1. A speed of recovery after wars, 2. Absolute
growth rates of GDP 3. Relative growth rates of
GDP and 4. A place in world ranking according
to the level of development. All the four criteria
show that Yugoslavia was much more successful compared to its successor states.
The second appendix is entitled:’ Macroeconomic performance in SEE transition
countries in the 1990’s. This appendix contains six tables: 1. A growth of GDP, 2. Unemployment as a percentage of workforce,
3. Inflation, measured in percentage increase
of consumer prices, 4. Government balance
as a percentage of GDP and 6. Foreign direct
investments in million dollars.
The third appendix gives indexes of the real
GDP in eight SEE transition countries, taking
1989 as a basis.
Most of chapters are divided into three or
four parts. The first part contains a global
economic performance. The second part deals
with economic performance in the EU. The
author emphasises the importance of the EU
as a main trading partner of the SEE transition
countries. Economic expansion in the EU increases demand from the SEE transition countries. This leads to a rise in exports from the
SEE transition countries, which through the
multiplier effect causes more than proportionate rise in income and growth rates. The op-
191
dohotka i stopa rasta. Inverzan proces se dešava
kad se zemlje Evropske Unije nalaze u recesiji.
Treći dio poglavlja analizira globalne ekonomske
promjene u zemljama tranzicije u Jugoistocnoj
Evropi, a cetvrti detaljan pregled po zemljama.
Sama ekonomska aktivnost analizirana je
sa strane tražnje i sa strane ponude. U analizi faktora koji su uticali na promjenu tražnje
autor polazi od sljedećeg obrasca agregatne
tražnje:
posite happens when the EU countries are in
recession. The third part is dedicated to global
economic performance in the SEE transition
countries, while the fourth one deals with individual analysis of each and every country.
Economic activity itself was analysed from
the demand and supply side. In the analysis of
factors which influenced changes in demand
the author starts from the following formula
for aggregate demand:
AD = C + I + G + (X – M)
gdje AD predstavlja agregatnu tražnju, C
ličnu potrosnju, I investicije, G javnu potrošnju, X izvoz a M uvoz.
Tokom cijelog perioda ekonomske ekspanzije, od 2000. do 2008. može se primijetiti da
su dvije osnovne poluge snažnog rasta bile
lična potrošnja i investicije. Lična potrošnja
stimulisana je jeftinim kreditima pod povoljnim uslovima, kao i doznakama iz inostranstva. Glavni izvor investicija predstavljala su
strana direktna ulaganja, vezana za lukrativne
ugovore o privatizaciji javne svojine.
Javna potrošnja nije značajnije uticala na ekonomski rast zbog bojazni od bijega kapitala i
finansijske nestabilnosti. Osim toga, bužetski
suficiti koje su ostvarile mnoge zemlje, nadomjestile su nedostatak privatne štednje, sto
je poztivno uticalo na kamatne stope, a koje bi
bez toga bile na višem nivou. Mada je izvoz u
godinama prosperiteta rastao po visokim stopama, njega je nadmašivao rast uvoza, naročito
usled zbog visoke elastičnosti uticaja uvoza na
rast dohotka. I pored toga sto su ogromni deficiti u trgovinskom bilansu ublaživani pozitivnim saldom na računu usluga, kao i doznakama,
ukupan uticaj spoljnotrgovinskih transakcija na
agregatnu tražnju i dohodak bio je negativan.
Na strani faktora ponude upadljiva karakteristika je sve veći uticaj sektora usluga i relativno manji značaj industrije i poljoprivrede,
što je značilo smanjenje udela proizvodnje u
BDP. Dokaz tome je da su nerijetko visoke stope rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda bile
praćene stagnacijom ili čak kontrakcijom primarnog i sekundarnog sektora.
192
Where AD represents aggregate demand, C
consumption, I investment, G government expenditure, X exports and M imports.
During the whole period of economic expansion from 2000 to 2008 two main pillars
of economic prosperity were consumption
and investment. Consumption was boosted
with cheap and easily available credits and
remittances from abroad. The main sources of
investments were foreign direct investments
linked to lucrative deals in the process of privatisation of public property.
Government expenditure did not contribute
significantly to economic growth due to fear
of capital flight and financial instability. Also,
budget surpluses accumulated in many countries offset the lack of private savings, which had
a positive effect on interest rates which would
have been otherwise much higher. Although exports rose at high rates in the years of prosperity
they were exceeded by a rise in imports especially because of high elasticity of imports to
increase in income. In spite of the fact that huge
deficits in trade balance were mitigated with
surpluses in the balance of invisibles and remittances the overall impact of foreign transactions
on aggregate demand was negative.
On supply side a conspicuous characteristic
was a rising importance of service sector and relatively smaller contribution of manufacturing industry and agriculture, which meant that production of goods decreased its proportion in GDP. A
proof for this is that not rarely high growth rates
of GDP were accompanied by stagnation or even
contraction in primary and secondary sector.
Ekonomski prosperitet prekinut je 2009. kad
se svjetska recesija proširila na zemlje Jugoistočne Evrope. Industrijska proizvodnja zabilježila je kontrakciju po dvocifrenim stopama,
a pad izvoza bio je jos drastičniji. Dok je BDP u
2008. porastao za 6,5%, isti je smanjen za 6,2%
u 2009. To znači da je privredna aktivnost smanjena za 12,7% u 2009. u odnosu na prethodnu godinu. I pored toga recesija u Jugoistočnoj
Evropi bila je znatno blaža nego u većini ostalih
zemala tranzicije. To se može objasniti činjenicom da su zemlje Jugoistočne Evrope manje
integrisane u svjetsku privredu od srednjoevropskih i baltičkih zemalja. Najmanje integrisana
zemlja, Albanija, bila je jedina koja je izbjegla
recesiju i zabiljezila rast od 3% u 2009.
Autor čitaocu veoma uverljivo predočava činjenicu da je kratkotrajni ekonomski oporavak koji
je uslijedio u 2010. godini, nakon oštre recesije
bio slab i nepotpun. Polovina zemalja o kojima on
piše, faktički je ostala u recesiji, a one koje su je
prebrodile, zabilježile su veoma niske stopa rasta
bruto domaćeg proizvoda. U preporuci za korišćenje ove knjige, trebalo bi istaći i to da će ona će
svakako biti od interesa bar za tri grupe čitalaca:
1. akademskim i stručnim ekonomistima, a
posebno onim zainteresovanim za privredu i reforme u Jugoistočnoj Evropi;
2. istraživačima Baklana - sociolozima,
politikolozima, pravnicima, novinarima,
zainteresovanim za Balkan, kao i istrazivačima koji se bave regionom;
3. svim drugim licima zainteresovanim za predmetnu temetiku i akademska istrazivanja.
Da bi učinio knjigu pristupačnom drugoj
i trećoj grupi čitalaca autor je dao detaljno objašnjenje mnogih makroekonomskih i
mikroekonomskih pojmova. Vrlo često ova
objašnjenja on potkrepljuje numeričkim primjerima, analizama i slučajevima.
Davno itišavši iz ex Jugoslavije, Tahir Mahmutefendić, kao bivši nastavnik Sarajevskog
univerziteta, je bio i ostao lično, životno, stručno, pa i emotivno zainteresovan za zbivanja na
njenim prostoroma, kao i za ekonomske promene u neposrednom okruženju. Sve što ne ide na
ruku zamljama u reformi danas na ovim prosto-
Economic prosperity was interrupted in
2009 when world recession spread to SEE.
Manufacturing production recorded a double-digit contraction and the fall in exports
was even greater. While GDP increased by
6.5 % in 2008 it fell by 6.2% in 2009. This
means that GDP decreased by 12.7% in 2009
compared to 2009. In spite of this recession
in SEE was much milder than in the other
transition countries. This could be explained
by the fact that SEE countries are much less
integrated in world economy compared to the
Central European and the Baltic States. The
least integrated country Albania was the only
one which avoided recession and recorded a
positive growth of 3% in 2009.
The author emphasises that a short economic recovery in 2010, which followed
a sharp recession, was weak and incomplete. Half of the countries were still in
recession and the rest experienced only
a small increase in GDP. In recommendation for use of this book one should
point out that it will be of interest to three
groups of readers:
1. Academic and professional economists,
especially those interested in economy
and --reforms in SEE
2. Researchers in Balkan studies – sociologists, political scientists, lawyers, journalists interested for the Balkans, as well as
researchers interested in the region
3. All other persons interested in the subject
and academic research
In other to make the book accessible to the
second and the third group of readers the author
gave a detailed explanation of macroeconomic
and microeconomic concepts. Those explanations are very often corroborated by descriptive and numerical examples and analyses.
Leaving the former Yugoslavia a long time
ago Tahir Mahmutefendic, as a former teacher at University of Sarajevo, remained personally, professionally and emotionally interested for the events in the area as well as in
its near surroundings. He is concerned with
everything what goes wrong in the region.
193
rima, njega zabrinjava i podstiče na temeljnu
analizu, kao i preispitivanje prošlosti, a posebno
želja i mogućnosti. Mnogi eksplicitni i implicitni saveti i pouke koje proističu iz monografije
odnose se na tešnju, kvalitetniju i sveobuhvatniju ekonomsku, kulturnu i svaku drugu saradnju
zemala Jugoistočne Evrope, a naročiti republika
u okviru bivše Jugoslavije. Ne treba bolji dokaz
za to od iskustva nakon velikog poplavnog talasa koji je tokom maja 2014. pogodio Srbiju,
BiH i Hrvatsku. U svakom slučaju, svi Mahmutefendićevi nalazi iz ove dragocjene knjige,
veoma su angažovani i dobrodošli, posebno u
vremenima presipitivanja temeljnih načela i vrijednosti ekonomskih i razvojnih modela i iskustava sa tržišnim slobodama i tipskim modelima
razvoja, kako sa stanovišta humaniteta, tako i sa
pozicije efikasnosti.
194
The problems inspire him to conduct a thorough analysis as well as questioning the past
in a connection with wishes and possibilities
in overcoming the problems. Many explicit and implicit advices and teachings in his
monograph are related to a closer, better and
more comprehensive co-operation between
SEE countries and especially republics of the
former Yugoslavia. The best example for this
are the experience of the most recent floods,
which affected Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. In every respect all Mahmutefendic’s findings in this precious book are
very welcome and inspiring especially in a
time of reconsidering fundamental principles
and values of economic and development
models, from the point of view of its humane
as well as efficiency aspect.
UPUTSTVO ZA AUTORE
(TIMES NEW ROMAN, VELIKA SLOVA, BOLD, CENTRALNO PORAVNANЈE)
INSTRUCTIONS FOR AUTHORS
Prof. dr Suzana Simić
Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Ekonomski fakultet u Subotici
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Economics
REZIME
Rezime se nalazi na početku rada i treba
da bude napisan fontom Times New Roman,
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navode se ključne riječi (do 10 ključnih riječi).
Ključne riječi: rezime, dužina rezimea,
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SUMMARY
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INTRODUCTION
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195
FORMAT STRANICE
Stranica je veličine A4. Margine su: vrh
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desna 2,54 cm, odnosno, svaka po 1 inč. Rad
treba da ima dužinu do 20.000 znakova, 10
strana (uključujući apstrakt, jednačine, tabele,
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u dvije kolone (lijeva kolona na srpskom, a
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JEZIK RADA I PISMO
Tekstovi se pišu u Microsoft Word Windows
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na srpskom jeziku dostavljati na latiničnom
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teoriju i analizu koristi APA standarde pisanja
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TABELE
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i redni broj tabele se postavljaju iznad tabele,
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ime tabele ispisujemo početnim velikim
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potrebi ispisuje i na srpskom jeziku.
GRAFIKONI, SLIKE I
JEDNAČINE
Grafikoni i slike se numerišu u kontinuitetu
arapskim brojevima. Naslov i redni broj
figure se unose ispod figure, poravnato
uz lijevu marginu. Sve figure citiramo
početnim velikim slovom. Veličina fonta u
figurama je 10 pt.
196
PAGE FORMAT
Page size is A4. Margins are: top 2.54 cm,
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respectively, each 1 inch. The paper should have
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WRITING
Papers are written in Microsoft Word for
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Theory and Analysis using APA writing
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TABLES
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with writing Capitalized and mention her
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retain only the most necessary. Font size is
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only in English language, and the legend, if
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Equation Editor i pozicionira se na centar,
dok je numeracija arapskim brojevima uz
desnu marginu.
CITIRANJE REFERENCI
U TEKSTU
Osnovni APA princip citiranja u otvorenom
tekstu jeste „jedan autor, jedna riječ“. Uz ime
autora potrebno je navesti samo godište, ali
ne i broj stranice.
Na primjer:
Voker (Walker, 2000). poredio je vrijeme reakcije...
Citiranje imena tri, četiri ili pet autora:
Prvo navođenje: Ilić, Branković, Milijević,
Suzić i Gutović (1999) objasnili su...
Drugo navođenje: Ilić i saradnici (1999)
objasnili su...
Za izvor sa Interneta koji nema označene
stranice, koristite znak para ¶ i broj paragrafa
na stranici na kojoj je objavljen.
Na primjer:
(Srpski jezik) Majers (Myers, 2000, ¶ 5)
POPIS LITERATURE
Svi citirani izvori u tekstu rada treba da
se nalaze u popisu literature. Radovi koji su
korišćeni u literaturi se navode alfabetskim
redom. APA standardi slijede princip „autor –
godište izdanja“. APA stil podrazumijeva da
se lista referenci daje u popisu na kraju rada, a
nikako navođenjem izvora u fusnotama.
Naredni primjeri imaju za cilj da autorima
pruže pregled navođenja u bibliografiji
odgovarajućih modela.
Knjige
Suzić, N. (2006). Poslovna kultura (drugo
izdanje). Banja Luka: XBS
Radovi iz časopisa
Suzić, N. (2008). Kako adolescenti
vrednuju svoje roditelje a kako roditelji
The equation to be written in Equation
Editor, and is positioned at the center, and
the numbering is with Arabic numerals on the
right margin.
CITING REFERENCES
IN THE TEXT
The basic principle of APA citation in
plaintext is “one author, one word.” With the
author’s name should be stated only age, but
not the number.
For example:
Walker (2000). compared reaction times...
Citing the names of three, four or five authors:
First time: Wasserstein, Zappulla, Rosen,
Gertsmann, and Rock (1994) found...
Second time: Wasserstein et al. (1994)
found ...(ibid,p.208)
For an Internet source that does not have a
bookmark, use the ¶ sign pairs and the number
of paragraphs on the page where it published.
For example:
(English) (Myers, 2000, ¶ 5)
REFERENCES
All sources cited in the text should be included
in the reference list. Papers that have been used
in the literature are presented in alphabetical
order. APA standards follow the principle of
“author–year release.” APA style that includes
a list of references given in the list at the end of
the article, not quoting sources in footnotes.
The following examples are intended to
authors provide an overview of citation in the
bibliography of the corresponding models.
Books
Hirsch, Jr.., E. D. (1996). The schools we need and
why we do not have them. New York: Doubleday.
Papers from the magazine
Dennis T. A. Cole, P. M., Wiggins, C. N.,
Cohen, L. H. & Zalewsky, M. (2009). The
197
sami sebe? Naša škola, časopis za teoriju
i praksu odgoja i obrazovanja br. 46/216,
str. 25–34
Rad objavljen u zborniku
functional organization of preschool-age
children’s emotion expressions and actions in
challenging situations. Emotion, 9, 520–530.
Suzić, N. (2009). Kako učenici vrednuju
školu i kako uče. U zborniku Monografija
međunarodnog znanstvenog skupa „Škola po
mjeri“ (str. 221–236). Pula: Sveučilište Jurja
Dobrile.
Rad poznatog autora
preuzet elektronski
Barrett, cp, & Campos, J. J. (1987).
Perspectives on emotional development: II.
A functionalist approach to emotions. In J. D.
Osofsky (Ed.), Handbook of infant development
(2nd ed., Pp. 555–578). Oxford, England: Wiley.
Schwarzer, R. (1989). Statistički softver
za meta analizu [Kompjuterski softverski
vodič]. Preuzeto 23. marta 2001. sa http://
www.yorku.ca/faculty/academic/schwarze/
meta_e.htm
Schwarzer, R. (1989). Statistics software
for meta-analysis [Computer software and
manual]. Retrived March 23, 2001,from http://
www.yorku.ca/faculty/academic/schwarze/
meta_e.htm
Članak koji je objavljen jedino na
Internetu
Fredserickson, B. L. (07.03.2000).
Cultivating positive emotions to optimize
health and wel-being. Prevention & Treatment,
3, Article 0001a. Preuzeto 20.11.2000, sa sajta
http://journals.apa.org/prevention/volume3/
pre0030001a.html
Podaci preuzeti sa sajta vladine ili druge
zvanične organizacije
Department of Health and Human Services,
National Center for Health Statistics. (1991).
National Health Provider Inventory: Home
health agencies and hospices, 1991 [Zvanični
podaci]. Dostupno na veb sajtu Nacionalnog
tehničkog informacionog servisa: http://
www.ntis.gov
198
Paper published in the journal
The work of renowned author
downloaded electronically
An article that was published only on
the Internet
Fredserickson, B. L. (2000, March
7). Cultivating positive emotions to optimize
health and wel-being. Prevention & Treatment,
3, Article 0001A. Retrieved November 20,
2000 from http://journals.apa.org/prevention/
volume3/pre0030001a.html
Data downloaded from the government
or other official organization
Department of Health and Human
Services, National Center for Health
Statistics. (1991). National Health Provider
Inventory: Home health agencies and
hospices, 1991 [Data file]. Available from
National Technical Information Service
Web site, http://ntis.gov
ISSN 2303-5005
9 772303 500006

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