BROJ 1 IZDAVAČ: „OIKOS INSTITUT“ D.O.O. Bijeljina ZA IZDAVAČA, DIREKTOR Doc. dr Zoran Mastilo GLAVNI I ODGOVORNI UREDNIK Prof. dr Petar Đukić, Univerzitet u Beogradu UREDNIK Suzana Simić, master ekonomista, finansije, bankarstvo i osiguranje REDAKCIJA: A. Naučna: Dragoljub dr Stojanov, Đuro dr Medić, Božidar dr Stavrić emeritus, Gojko dr Rikalović, Nenad dr Vunjak, Petar dr Đukić, Gordana dr Kokeza, Šefkija dr Berberović emeritus, Danica dr Berberović, Mira dr Šunjić emeritus, Kadrija dr Hodžić, Branko dr Krsmanović, Pajo dr Panić, Hamid dr Alibašić, Ljubomir dr Trifunović, Nenad dr Suzić, Siniša dr Ostojić, Aleksandar dr Stojanović, Marko dr Šarčević, Goran dr Popović, Lorena dr Škuflić, Miladin dr Jovičić. B. Stručna: Vladan dr Nastić, Milan mr Radović, Zijad mr Krnjić, Dražen mr Cvijanović, Mladen mr Fulurija, Milorad mr Živković Jelena mr Vitomir, Biljana mr Stanivuk TEHNIČKI UREDNIK Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek. GRAFIČKI UREDNIK I DIZAJN Marko Mastilo PREVOD NA ENGLESKI JEZIK Nemanja Jovanović, prevod i lektorisanje za engleski jezik od 5-22; 45-78 strane LEKTOR ZA SRPSKI JEZIK Prof. dr Cvijetin Ristanović ADRESA „OIKOS INSTITUT“ D.O.O., Vuka Karadžića do broja 9, 76300, Bijeljina, Republika Srpska, Bosna i Hercegovina. KONTAKT e-mail: economics.oikos.institut@gmail.com Sajt: http://www.oikosinstitut.org/economics.html Žiro račun: 55500000004916269 Nova Banka, filijala Bijeljina JIB: 4403572460004 Časopis izlazi polugodišnje PRETPLATA PO IZDANJU Za pravna lica 150 KM (12 kom.) Za fizička lica 10KM (1 kom.) ŠTAMPA Grafika GOLE Tiraž: 300 primjeraka KATALOGIZACIJA Štampano izdanje: ISSN 2303-5005 Online izdanje: ISSN 2303-5013 SADRŽAJ - CONTENT UVODNIK - EDITORIAL 1-4 Prof. dr Petar Đukić DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU? HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL? EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY 5 - 22 Prof. dr Marko Šarčević MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI U PREDUZEĆU INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES AND ACTUAL PROFIT OF A COMPANY 23 - 34 Ognjen Zupur, dipl. ek. ISTRAZIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS TEORIJSKA EKONOMIJA - THEORETICAL ECONOMICS 35 - 44 Prof. dr Miladin Jovičić; Dejan Gračanin, dipl. ek. GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING 45 - 62 Doc. dr Vitomir Starčević RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY 63 - 78 Doc. dr Slobodan Subotić MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK 79 - 92 Boriša Stevanović, dipl. ek. METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS 93 - 108 Dr Vladan Nastić “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI - ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU EKONOMIJU I IZVOZNO BRENDIRANJE? “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY - WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL ECONOMY AND EXPORT BRANDING? FISKALNA EKONOMIJA - FISCAL ECONOMY Mr Biljana Stanivuk 109 - 116 UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMY Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek. 117 - 139 POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE UVODNIK - EDITORIAL DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU? HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL? Prof. dr Petar Đukić* *Univerzitet u Beogradu, Tehnološko-Metalurški fakultet Beograd University of Belgrade, Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy Ako bismo se upravljali prema najaktuelnijim privredno-političkim vijestima i činjenicama koje proističu iz stanja svjetske ekonomije, ne bismo lako mogli da sagledamo raison d’etre pokretanja bilo kakvog novog časopisa za teoriju i praksu ekonomije. Izgleda kao da je izgubilo smisao bilo kakvo teoretisanje u situaciji kada se permanentno snižavaju prognozirane stope rasta privrede, kako za tekuću, tako i izgledi za sledeću godinu. Za svijet u cjelini, po svoj prilici (MMF je u tom pogledu veoma odrešit) u 2013. godini stopa rasta globalnog BDP ne može dostići ni prosječnu vrijednost zabilježenu u proteklom tridesetogodišnjem periodu od oko 3%, a prognozirana stopa za 2014. od 3,6%, sudeći po sadašnjim tendencijama, čini se i previše optimističnom. Jer, usporavanja rasta u Rusiji, Kini, Indiji, Meksiku, prelivanje psiholoških i drugih posljedica (svijetu do sada nepojmljive) budžetske blokade u SAD, sve dublja depresivnost EU zone kojoj ove godine slijedi pad BDP od -0,4%, ne daju baš mnogo izgleda za optimizam ili osnova za bilo kakvu veliku retoriku. If we governed ourselves on the basis of the most current economic and political news and facts derived from the status of the world economy, we could not easily perceive raison d’etre for initiating any new journal of economics theory and practice. It appears that any theorizing has lost its sense in the situation where the forecasted economic growth rates are being permanently lowered for both the current and the next year. For the world as a whole, it is very likely that (the IMF has been very clear in that respect) in 2013, the growth rate of global GDP cannot even reach the average value of about 3%, recorded in the previous 30-year period of about. With regards to that the forecasted rate of 3.6% for 2014, according to current trends, appears to be too optimistic. The main reasons being the growth rate decelerations in Russia, China, India and Mexico, overspill of psychological and other consequences of the budget stalemate in the U.S. (which has been inconceivable to the rest of the world until now), increasingly deeper depression of the EU zone, which is about to encounter GDP decline of -0.4 % this year. Such information does not provide any reason for optimism, nor the basis for any significant rhetoric. U vremenu kada nastaje ovaj tekst At the time of writing this text (mid (sredina novembra 2013.) iz Libije pristiže November 2013), news from Libya report that vijest da je samo tokom proteklog dana u during the previous day of the civil conflict in građanskim sukobima u Tripoliju izgubilo Tripoli, nearly 40 people were killed, while život blizu 40 osoba, dok je preko trista ra- more than three hundred were injured, while njeno, a samo dva-tri dana ranije su desetine only two or three days earlier, tens of thouhiljada Filipinaca nastradali u novoj velikoj sands of Filipinos had been killed in the latcunami-katastrofi. Pomoć iz svijeta veoma est tsunami disaster. Aid from the rest of the je oskudna, između ostalog jer su katastro- World is scarce, among other things, because fe velikih razmjera sve češće, a gotovo da of large-scale disasters are becoming more nema zemlje u svijetu koja se ne bavi ur- frequent, with almost no country in the world gentnim pitanjima i problemima sopstvene addressing to the pressing issues and problems egzistencije. regarding its own existence. 1 P. Đukić: DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU? Za to vrijeme u Republici Srpskoj, In the meantime, in the Republic of Srpska, kao i u cijeloj BIH uostalom, svakodnevno as well as throughout the entire Bosnia and Herzerastu potrebe za besplatnim obrocima, za govina, the necessity for free meals, for which barely čije finansiranje preostaje jedva 55% neop- 55% of the necessary funds remain, is growing on a hodnih sredstava. Po riječima generalnog daily basis. In the words of the Secretary General of sekretara Crvenog krsta RS, nema novca the Red Cross of the Republic of Srpska, there are inkako bi obrok bio obezbijeđen svima koji sufficient funds to provide meals to all the people who hranu sebi ne mogu da priušte, tako da u cannot afford to buy the food themselves. Therefore, toku godine kuhinja može normalno da radi soup-kitchens can normally operate for about eight oko osam mjeseci, a preostala četiri mje- months per year, with the remaining four months seca rada “svodi se na snalaženje”. Što se basically coming down to “every man for himself”. donatora tiče, oni traže nova žarišta, jer je As for the donors, they are looking for new hot spots, BiH dosad “trebalo da stane na svoje noge”. since Bosnia and Herzegovina “should have been Prioriteti su, u proteklom periodu bila druga standing on its own feet by now.” The priorities in područja, poput Kosova i Sirije, a sada su the past were other areas, such as Kosovo and Syria, to Filipini. with the Philippines being the priority area today. U regionu Jugoistočne Evrope kome pripadamo, takođe ništa optimistično. Čak i u Hrvatskoj (najnovijem članu EU) za svega deset dana u oktobru, broj nezaposlenih porastao je čak za više od deset hiljada osoba, sa izgledima da se ukupni broj nezaposlenih od oko 350 hiljada, tokom sledeće godine uveća na pola miliona lica. Javni dug zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope za sada je najveći u Srbiji (oko 60% BDP), ali je i onaj u Hrvatskoj sve bliži tom nivou, dok je nivo javnog duga BIH tokom protekle godine procjenjen na 34% BDP, ali sa tendencijom rasta. Najniži nivo javnog duga u regionu ima Makedonija, ali to ni izdaleka ne znači da ima najbolje ekonomske performanse. Dakle, ni tranzicija u zemljama našeg regiona nije donijela kvalitetne strukturne promjene i održivi rast ekonomije, kako se očekivalo. The forecast for the region of Southeast Europe, to which our country belongs, is not optimistic either. Even in Croatia (the newest member of the EU) in just ten days in October, the number of unemployed people has risen by more than ten thousand, with the total number of unemployed people expected to rise from 350 thousand to half a million people over the next year. The public debt of the countries of South East Europe is currently the highest in Serbia (about 60% of GDP), with the one in Croatia getting closer to that level, while the level of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s public debt was estimated to be 34% of GDP in the past year, with the increasing trend. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has the lowest level of public debt in the region, but it is still far from having the best economic performance. Therefore, the transition process in the countries of our region did not bring quality structural change and sustainable economic growth, as expected. Tak samo kao lažna utjeha mogao bi As a false consolation, the data stating da posluži podatak da je nivo javnog duga u that the public debt level in the Euro Zone in Euro zoni već u 2013. dostigao 92,2% BDP, 2013 reached 92.2% of GDP, while in Greece, dok je u Grčkoj, Španiji, Portugalu, Belgi- Spain, Portugal and Belgium it is even highji čak preko 130%. Evropska unija još nije er than 130% . The European Union has not prevazišla ni svoje konstitucionalne proble- yet overcome its constitutional or initial probme, tzv dječije ili one “tinejdžerske” bole- lems such as the organization during the crisis, sti kao što su način organizacije u kriznim management of common resources, particuuslovima, upravljanje zajedničkim posebno larly financial ones; application of sustainable finansijskim resursima, primjena održive fi- fiscal policy and financial discipline. On the skalne politike i finansijske discipline. Sa other hand, the cases of Estonia, whose public 2 P. Đukić: HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL? druge strane, primjeri Estonije čiji javni debt has not risen over 10% of GDP, and Gerdug još nije prešao preko 10% BDP, kao i many, which records almost constant economNjemačke, koja gotovo konstantno bilježi ic growth and much lower unemployment rate ekonomski rast i daleko nižu nezaposlenost than the rest of the EU, demonstrate that the od ostatka EU, pokazuje da se u krizi (i kri- management during the crisis (and of the crizom) može upravljati manje ili više uspješ- sis) can be managed more or less successfully. no. Ako se uporede ova dva zasebna slučaja If these two separate cases are compared to sa stanjem čitave EU, ili Evrope u cjelini, the situation in the entire EU, or to Europe as ili pak za svijet izuzetna i po sebi lakša i a whole, or to the World, or an exquisite and perspektivnija ekonomska situacija zema- by itself less complicated and more promising lja BRIKS-a (Brazil, Rusija, Indija, Kina, economic situation of the BRICS countries Južna Afrika) u odnosu na ostatak svijeta, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is nema dvojbe da se ukazuje sasvim izvjesna compared to the rest of the World, there is no potreba za novom i drugačijom, napredni- doubt that there is a need not only for a new jom i savremenijom ekonomskom teorijom, and different, more advanced and more modpa i čitavom filozofijom razvoja u XXI vi- ern economic theory, but for the whole develjeku. opment philosophy in the XXI century. Redakcija časopisa Oikos Economics, Editorial Board of Oikos Economics čiji je prvi broj pred vama nema pretenzije journal, whose first issue you are holding right da vodi ka nekoj novoj teorijsko-metodo- now, does not intend to lead towards a new loškoj revoluciji (kao što je svojevremeno theoretical and methodological revolution (as bila ona “kejzijanska”) ili potpuno druga- “Keynesian” revolution once was), or a comčijoj razvojnoj filozofiji, ali ima namjeru da pletely different development philosophy, but omogući, naročito mlađim ekonomskim pa is intended to particularly enable young ecoi drugim stručnjacima za društvenu struktu- nomic and other social structure and developru i razvoj, kako praktičarima tako i teoreti- ment experts, both practitioners and theorists, čarima, da postojeće i nove teme i dileme to perceive, in a multidimensional manner, privredne politike i prakse osvijetle sa svog current and new themes and dilemmas of ecostanovišta i da na višedimenzionalan način nomic policy and practice from their own point istražuju mnoge do sada neistražene pojave, of view, and to explore many phenomena, proprocese i činjenice. cesses and facts, unexplored to this day, Naime, mnogo štošta, od onoga što In fact, many occurrences, from what se činilo kao veoma poznato i izvjesno, sada seemed like a very familiar and obvious, look u svjetlu posljedica najnovije krize izgleda very different today, in the light of the results prilično drugačije. Ako stvari ostanu samo of the latest crisis. If things remain on the pracna praktičnoj ravni, a mjere ekonomske po- tical level, with the measures of economic pollitike svedene na preporuke iz dosadašnje icy reduced to recommendations from previous prakse, neće ispasti na dobro. Stari Grci su practice, the outcome will not be favourable. The kroz usta svojih velikih mudraca- filozofa ja- ancient Greeks sent a clear message through the sno poručili: panta rei a onda pojednostavili mouths of their great sages - philosophers: panprimjerom u kome se nikada ne može dva ta rei, accompanied by a simplified example, in puta stati u istu rijeku. Tako je i sa najno- which you could never step twice into the same vijom krizom koja za jedan dio industrijski river. The same applies to the latest crisis, lasting razvijenog svijeta traje već sedam godina, for seven years in the industrial part of the develdakle duže nego velika depresija 1929-1934. oped world, which is longer than the Great DePri tome su istrošeni gotovo cjelokupni ar- pression of 1929-1934. In the process, the entire senali podsticajnih interventno-finansijskih arsenals of financial incentive-corrective measmjera. Čak i u Kini, koja je do sada bila na ures have been nearly depleted. According to 3 P. Đukić: DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU? čelu uzdanica globalnog rasta, prema nalazima Svjetske banke, “stimulativni program je odigrao svoje”, a kreditna ekspanzija se privodi kraju, tako da kreatori finansijske politike u ovoj zemlji sve više moraju da vode računa o obuzdavanju ubrzanog rasta kredita, uz pojačanu superviziju. the World Bank, even in China, which has been at the forefront of global growth, the “stimulus program played its part” with the credit expansion nearing its completion, so that the creators of financial policy in this country are forced to increasingly pay attention to restraining the rapid loan growth, with intensified supervision. Ako bi se današnja teorija i praksa odrIf the present theory and practice of živog rasta i razvoja privrede upodobila onoj sustainable economic growth and developkoja je poslužila kao osnova za prevladavanje ment would suit to the one used as a basis for čuvene, stagflacije 70-tih godina XX vijeka, overcoming the famous stagflation in the 70’s, razumje se da bi učinci bili još skromniji. Da- it is clear that the effects would be even weaker. našnji povratak “reganomici” i “tačerizmu”, Today’s return to “Reganomics” and “Thatchtako efikasnim modelima ekonomske politike erism” , as effective models of economic polod prije svega tri decenije, po svoj prilici ne icy from three decades ago, is presumably out dolazi u obzir, iako su tržišna privreda, glo- of the question, even though the market econbalna sloboda trgovine, pa i vrijednosti opšte omy, the global free trade, and the values of ekonomske liberalizacije neupitne. Svaka global economic liberalization are unquestionod mjera ekonomske politike danas zahtjeva able. Each of the economic policy measures preispitivanje u skladu sa novim sadržajima now requires reconsideration in accordance i faktorima privrednog razvoja, pa i novim with the new features and factors of economic profilom najnovije krize, kojoj, kao da se ne development, as well as with the new profile of nazire skori kraj. the latest crisis, whose end is nowhere in sight. Nije li to dovoljan razlog da se poIs not that the reason sufficient to start krene jedan novi časopis kakav je Oikos a new magazine such as the Oikos Economics, Economics, koji će nadamo se, uz vašu po- which will hopefully, with your assistance, primoć, prije svega kroz kritičku analizu pro- marily through critical analysis of its content čitanog i odgovarajuće korišćenje ponuđe- and through proper use of the offered findings, nih nalaza, kao i vaš kreativni doprinos u as well as through your creative contribution via radovima koji ćete nam slati na recenzije i the papers that you will have submitted to us for publikovanje, postati još u većoj mjeri re- review and publishing, become increasingly rellevantan za ekonomsko-političku teoriju i evant in the socio-political theory and practice. praksu. Uostalom, davno je rečeno: “Nema After all, it was said long ago: “There is nothing bolje prakse od dobre teorije”. U tom smi- so practical as a good theory.” In that respect, slu treba sagledavati i ovaj pokušaj da se this effort should be considered an attempt to lepeza postojeće naučno-stručne periodike expand the portfolio of existing scientific and dopuni jednim novim časopisom, koji je technical periodicals by a new magazine, which pred vama. is right in front of you. 4 U Beogradu Belgrade 17. novembra 2013. 17 November 2013. EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI U PREDUZEĆU INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES AND ACTUAL PROFIT OF A COMPANY Prof. dr Marko Šarčević* *Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Ekonomski fakultet Istočno Sarajevo-Pale University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Economics East Sarajevo-Pale Izvorni naučni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301001S, UDK 65.012123:336.748.12 Original scientific paper REZIME SUMMARY Visok stepen međuzavisnosti stepena korištenja kapaciteta i dobiti preduzeća leži u činjenici postojanja fiksnih troškova uslovljenih instalisanjem kapaciteta i njihovog ponašanja kako u apsolutnom iznosu, tako i po jedinici proizvoda. Ukoliko se kapacitet koristi u projektovanom obimu a, istovremeno, tržište prihvati ostvarenu proizvodnju, koja je prilagođena platežnoj moći potrošača, onda će preduzeće ostvariti pozitivan finansijski rezultat, odnosno dobit. U protivnom, ako se kapacitet ne koristi dovoljno, onda će fiksni troškovi da opterete cijenu koštanja, te preduzeće neće moći da ponudi prodajnu cijenu koja će biti konkurentna, što će voditi daljem smanjenju korišćenja kapaciteta, i preduzeće u sigurnu propast. High level of interdependency between the utilization level of production capacities and the actual profit of a company lies in the existence of fixed costs conditioned by the production capacities and their behaviour both in absolute amount and per unit of a product. If the capacity is utilised in the projected volume and if the market, at the same time, accepts the production achieved, made affordable to the consumers, then the company will accomplish a positive financial result and income. Otherwise, if the capacity is not utilised sufficiently, the fixed cost shall encumber the price, resulting in the company’s inability to offer a competitive selling price, which will lead to further reductions in utilization of capacities, thus leading the company into disaster. Ključne riječi: troškovi, fiksni troškovi, kapacitet, stepen korištenja kapaciteta, dobit. cijena koštanja, prodajna cijena. Keywords: costs, fixed costs, capacities, utilization level of capacities, profit, cost price, selling price. UVOD INTRODUCTION Troškovi su utrošene vrijednosti u reprodukciji. Pod troškovima podrazumijevamo trošenje dobara (sredstava) i usluga u proizvodnom procesu, pri čemu su ta dobra i usluge izražene vrijednosno. Veličina troškova zavisi od obima utrošaka i veličine cijene tog elementa. Troškovi predstavljaju centralni problem u politici preduzeća. Njihova veličina uslovljava uspjeh preduzeća, tako da troškovi predstavljaju kontrolni instrument The costs are the funds spent in the process of reproduction. The costs imply consumption of commodities (assets) and services in the production process, with such commodities and services being specified in value. Cost depends on the volume of consumption and the price of such element. Costs represent the central problem in the policy of a company. Success of a company is dependent on their amount in such manner that the costs represent a control instrument of 5 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... efikasnosti poslovanja. Troškovi elemenata proizvodnje kao oblik ulaganja vrijednosti u proces reprodukcije u ekonomskoj teoriji i praksi klasifikuju se po nekoliko osnovnih kriterijuma, zavisno od ciljeva posmatranja te pojave. Podjela troškova na bazi kriterijuma njihove zavisnosti od veličine kapaciteta i njihovog korišćenja razlikuje dvije osnovne skupine ovog oblika ulaganja u proces reprodukcije: (1) fiksne i (2) varijabilne troškove. business operation efficiency. Costs of elements of production as a form of investment of value in the reproduction process are classified on the basis of several basic criteria in economic theory and practice, depending on the observation objectives of such occurrence. Division of costs based on the criteria of their dependence on the capacity and their use distinguishes two main groups of this investment type in the process of reproduction: (1) fixed and (2) variable costs Pri promjeni stepena korišćenja kapaciteta, troškovi elemenata proizvodnje različito se ponašaju. Changes in the utilisation level of production capacities, costs of production elements behave differently. Pojave koje se javljaju u ponašanju troškova vezano za promjenu stepena korištenja kapaciteta mogu se definisati kao: (1) progresija troškova, (2) degresija troškova i (3) remanentnost troškova. Occurrences in the behaviour of costs related to the change in the utilisation level of production capacities can be defined as: (1) cost progression, (2) cost degression, (3) cost remanence U cilju lakšeg razumijevanja ovako izvršene podjele troškova, neophodno je ukazati na značaj i ulogu uspostavljanja i korišćenja proizvodnog kapaciteta kao i izraza koncentracije kapitala u pripremi proizvodnje. In order to facilitate the understanding of such division of costs, it is necessary to point out the importance of establishing and utilisation of the production capacities as well as the expression of concentration of capital in preparation for the production. POJAM KAPACITETA U PREDUZEĆU PRODUCTION CAPACITIES OF A COMPANY Definisanje i klasifikacija proizvodnih kapaciteta u preduzeću. Definition and classification of production capacities of a company. Kapacitet preduzeća predstavlja njegovu proizvodnu sposobnost tokom određenog perioda, utvrđenu na osnovu organizacije i uslova proizvodnje koji obezbjeđuju maksimalno korišćenje proizvodne opreme. Koncentrisanje ekonomskih vrijednosti u sredstvima za rad predstavlja određeni vid pripreme proizvodnje, koja omogućava efikasnije privređivanje. U tom smislu, privredni subjekti koji se odlikuju višim stepenom tehničke opremljenosti, proizvodno su sposobniji, odnosno, imaju veći proizvodni potencijal. A company’s production capacity represents its productivity over a certain period, determined on the basis of the organization and production conditions that ensure maximum utilization of production equipment. Concentration of economic values in the equipment represents a certain form of production preparation, which allows for more efficient operation. In that sense, companies possess a higher level of technical equipment, are more capable for production, i.e., their production potential is greater. Uspostavljanje proizvodnog kapaciteta podrazumjeva određena ulaganja kapitala u pripremu proizvodnje. Međutim, takva prethodna ulaganja ekonomski su opravdana je- Establishing a production capacity includes certain equity investments in production preparation. However, such pre-investments are economically justified 6 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... dino ako se reprodukuju, odnosno upotrijebe za dobijanje materijalnih dobara, čijom realizacijom se tako uložene vrijednosti vrate, uz njihovo ekonomsko oplođavanje. Otuda i potreba da se uspostavljeni proizvodni kapacitet što je moguće potpunije koristi. U protivnom, akumulirane vrijednosti u sredstvima za rad neracionalno se troše zbog djelovanja zuba vremena i njihovog moralnog rabaćenja, odnosno zastarijevanja. only if they are reproduced, i.e. used for obtaining material commodities, whose realisation ensures the return of such investments, alongside with their economic progression. Hence is the need to utilise the established production capacity to the highest extent possible. Otherwise, the accumulated value in the equipment is irrationally spent due to time progression and their wear & tear. Ukoliko se proizvodni kapacitet uopšte ne koristi, vrijednosti uložene u njega neće se reprodukovati, jer nema proizvoda koji bi omogućili prenošenje takvog ulaganja na potrošače. Stoga će troškovi uslovljeni izgradnjom takvog kapaciteta predstavljati gubitak za preduzeće u kome je takav investicioni promašaj nastao. If the production capacity remains unused, the values invested in it will not reproduce, due to the lack of products that would allow the transfer of such investment assets onto customers. Therefore, the costs caused by installing such capacities would represent a loss for the company in which such investment failure occurred. Ekonomski kapacitet podrazumjeva odnos između učinaka koji dati organizacioni sistem proizvodi i ulaganja uslovljenih uspostavljanjem toga sistema. Ovaj koncept bazira se na finansijskim efektima koji se ostvaruju korišćenjem instalisanog kapaciteta. Economic capacity denotes the relationship between the effects generated by the organizational system and investment caused by the establishment of such system. This concept is based on the financial effects achieved by utilisation of the installed capacity. Razlikujemo tri vrste kapaciteta: (1) minimalni, (2) optimalni, (3) maksimalni. There are three types of capacity: (1) minimum, (2) optimum, (3) maximum. Minimalnim kapacitetom podrazumijeva se stepen iskorišćenosti tehničkog kapaciteta na kome je finansijski dobitak jednak nuli, odnosno na kojem se vrijednost proizvodnje izjednačava sa cijenom koštanja (C=T). Minimum capacity denotes the utilisation level of technical capacity at which the financial gain is zero, or where the production value of is equal to the cost price (C=T). Maksimalni kapacitet podrazumijeva potpunu iskorišćenost tehničkog kapaciteta. To je gornja tačka korišćenja tehničkog kapaciteta, na kojoj se ponovo cijena koštanja izjednačava sa cijenom proizvodnje. Maximum capacity implies full utilization of technical capacities. It is the top most point of the technical capacities utilisation, where the cost price is equalised to the production price. Optimalni kapacitet označava stepen korišćenja proizvodnog potencijala preduzeća pri kome su troškovi po jedinici proizvoda najniži. Optimalni kapacitet je manji od maksimalnog kapaciteta. Optimalni kapacitet predstavlja stepen korištenja maksimalnog kapaciteta. On se najčešće pojavljuje u vidu neke zone, zone optimalnosti koja može da se prostire od 75-90% korišćenja maksimalnog kapaciteta. Optimum capacity denotes the level of utilisation of production potential of a company while keeping the cost per unit of production at the lowest level. Optimum capacity is lower than the maximum capacity. Optimum capacity represents the level of utilization of maximum capacity. It mainly occurs in the form of a zone; the zone of optimality that can range from 75-90% of maximum capacity utilisation. 7 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... MJERENJE KAPACITETA U PREDUZEĆU MEASURING THE CAPACITY OF A COMPANY Kapacitet se može izražavati naturalnim i vrijednosnim pokazateljima. Capacity can be expressed by physical and financial indicators. Naturalni pokazatelji Physical indicators Među naturalne pokazatelje spadaju: (1) fond mašinskih časova rada, (2) broj potrebnih radnika za određeni vremenski period, (3) količina prerađenih sirovina i materijala, (4) instalisana snaga elektromotora i drugih potrošača električne energije, (5) broj određenih korisnih aktivnosti proizvodne opreme. Physical indicators include the following: (1) number of hours used for operation of the machines, (2) number of required workers for a specific period of time, (3) amount of processed raw materials and supplies, (4) installed capacity of electric motors and other consumers of power, (5) number of specific useful activities of production equipment. Naturalni pokazatelji su više Kvalitativnog karaktera i izražavaju se u materijalnom obliku, dok su vrijednosni pokazatelji kvantitativnog karaktera i izražavaju se u jedinicama mjere. The type of physical indicators is mainly qualitative and can be expressed in tangible form, while the type of financial indicators is mainly quantitative nature and can be expressed in units of measure. Vrijednosni pokazatelji Financial indicators Ako rezultat reprodukcije pomnožimo sa pijenom (prodajnom ili nekom drugom) dobijamo rezultat reprodukcije u obliku vrijednosti. Na Ovaj način dobija se i ukupna vrijednost proizvodnje preduzeća. Ona se dobija množenjem količine svih proizvedenih učinaka sa njihovom prodajnom cijenom. Vrijednost ostvarene proizvodnje je u stvari mjera iskorišćenosti dijela proizvodnog kapaciteta preduzeća u određenom periodu. If we multiply the reproduction result with the price, (either sales or other) the result is reproduction of the form of value. This method provides the total value of a company’s production. It is obtained by multiplying the amount of all the produced effects with their selling price. The value of actual production is in fact a measure of utilization of a section of the company’s production capacities within a certain period. Mjerenje kapaciteta može se izražavati: (1) jedinicama učinka - jedinicama proizvoda, (2) jedinicama rada, (3) istrošenim elementima proizvodnje, itd. Measuring the capacities can be expressed by: (1) Performance units – product units, (2) Work (labour) Units, (3) Consumed production elements, etc. Jedinice mjere su fizičke jedinice, npr. tone, komadi, litri, parovi, itd. Units of measurement are physical units, e.g ., tons, pieces, litres, pairs, etc.. Najčešće se kao jedinice rada upotrebljavaju mašinski časovi rada a, u uslužnim djelatnostima to su norma časovi rada radnika. Units most commonly used as work (labour) units are the numbers of machine operation hours and, with regards to services norm working hours of employees. Mjerenje kapaciteta utrošenim elementima proizvodnje primjenjuje se najčešće Measuring the capacity on the basis of consumed production elements is common- 8 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... tamo gdje postoji mogućnost proizvodnje istih proizvoda - količinama sirovina koje se mogu preraditi. ly used in the situations where it is possible to produce the same products – by the quantities of raw materials that can be processed. U nekim slučajevima kapacitet se izražava prostorom koji se koristi za proizvodnju ili uskim grlima proizvodnje itd. In some cases, the capacity is expressed by the space used for production or by production bottlenecks, etc.. STEPEN ISKORIŠTENOSTI KAPACITETA UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES Stepen iskorištenosti kapaciteta se može izražavati na više načina. Koji će se od mogućih načina upotrijebiti zavisi od kategorije kapaciteta koji se uzima u konkretnom slučaju. Imamo sljedeće mogućnosti: odnos stvarno iskorištenog kapaciteta prema maksimalnom kapacitetu, zatim iskorišteni kapacitet prema raspoloživom kapacitetu, optimalnom kapacitetu ili prema planiranom kapacitetu. Utilisation level of production capacities can be expressed in a variety of ways. The category of a capacity taken into consideration in the specific case determines which of the possible methods is to be used. The following options are available: ratio of actual utilized capacity to maximum capacity, ratio of the utilised capacity to available capacity, optimum capacity or to planned capacity. Sve ove kapacitete iskazujemo najrealnije u odgovarajućim naturalnim jedinicama mjere. Tako, npr., procenat iskorištenosti ostvarenog i planiranog kapaciteta dobićemo kao odnose: All the aforementioned capacities are expressed in the most realistic manner by corresponding physical units of measurement. Thus, e.g., utilization percentage of the actual and planned capacity shall be as follows: u odnosu na planiranu proizvodnju. with regards to the planned production. Količina proizvoda može se izraziti u stvarnim ili u uslovnim jedinicama mjere. The amount of products can be expressed in actual units of measurement or in conditional units of measurement. Često korišteni model mjerenja iskorištenosti kapaciteta je odnos ostvarene proizvodnje (Q) i maksimalno moguće proizvodnje (Qmax): Commonly used model for measuring the utilisation of capacities is the ratio of actual production rate (Q) and the maximum possible production rate (Qmax): maksimalno moguća proizvodnja Stepen korišćenja kapaciteta (Skk) na osnovu planiranog n ostvarenog kapaciteta se dobija na sljedeći način: Utilisation level of production capacities (Skk) is obtained on the basis of planned and actual production capacity as follows: 9 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... Stepen iskorištenja proizvodne opreme (SKO) se dobija iz obrasca: Utilisation level of production equipment (SKO) is obtained from the formula: Kapacitet na osnovu planiranih i ostvarenih mašinskih časova rada (SKK) dobijamo: The capacity is obtained on the basis of planned and actual machine operating hours (SKK): Kapacitet na bazi prerađenih sirovina i materijala (SKK): The capacity on the basis of processed raw materials and supplies (SKK): Kapacitet na bazi instalisane snage elektromotora (SKK): The capacity based on the installed capacity of electric motors (SKK): POKAZATELJI ISKORIŠTENOSTI KAPACITETA INDICATORS OF UTILISATION OF CAPACITIES Sve pokazatelje iskorištenosti kapaciteta možemo svrstati u više grupa: (1) pokazatelje ekstenzivnog iskorištavanja kapaciteta sredstava za rad, (2) pokazatelje intenzivnog iskorištenja kapaciteta sredstava za rad, (3) pokazatelje integralnog iskorištavanja kapaciteta sredstava za rad, (4) ostale pokazatelje iskorištavanja kapaciteta. All of the capacity utilization indicators can be divided into several groups: (1) indicators of extensive capacity utilization of equipment, (2) indicators of intensive capacity utilization of equipment, (3) indicators of integrated capacity utilization of equipment, (4) other indicators of capacity utilization. Pokazatelji ekstenzivnog iskorištavanja kapaciteta su: Indicators of extensive capacity utilization are: Koeficijent iskorištenja kapaciteta smjene (koeficijent smjenosti - Kis) Ratio of capacity utilization of one working shift (working shift ratio - Kis ) pri čemu je: Where: Kis - koeficijent smjenosti, Kis – working shift ratio, Es1 - efektivno radila mašina u prvoj smjeni, Es1 – effective operation hours in first shift 10 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... Es2- efektivno radila mašina u drugoj smjeni, Es2- effective operation hours in second shift, Sm - ukupan broj mašnna u preduzeću. Sm – total number of machines in the company. Na bazi koeficijenta smjenosti (Kis) dobijamo koeficjent rada opreme (Kro) na sljedećn način: On the basis of working shift ratio (Kis) the following ratio of operation of equipment (DRC) is obtained: pri čemu je: S – broj smjena. Where: S – number of working shifts. Takođe, možemo dobiti i koeficijent iskorištenosti smjenosti režima rada opreme. On se dobija stavljanjem u odnos koeficijenta smjenosti prema vremenu trajanja jedne smjene: Likewise, it is possible to obtain the utilization ratio of equipment operation mode per shifts. It is obtained by comparing the working shift ratio and the duration of a working shift: pri čemu je: Ts - vrijeme trajanja jedne smjene. where: Ts – duration of a working shift. Ukoliko se koriste samo ekstenzivni pokazatelji, moglo bi se doći do pogrešnog zaključka. Do greške dolazi usljed nepažljive analize koja nije uspjela da otkrije da li oprema proizvodi nekvalitetnu robu ili škart jer, ako se to dešava, znatno je manji doprinos opreme postizanju pozitivnog rezultata preduzeća. Iz tih razloga je neophodno koeficijente ekstenzivnog korišćenja kapaciteta dopuniti koeficijentima intenzivnog korišćenja kapaciteta. If only the extensive indicators are used, one might reach the wrong conclusion. The error occurs due to careless analysis which fails to uncover whether the equipment produces low-quality goods and scrap. If that happens, the contribution of the equipment to achieving positive results is significantly lower. For that reason it is necessary to supplement the ratios of extensive capacity utilisation with the ratios of intensive capacity utilization. Koeficijent intenzivnosti kapaciteta pokazuje faktički ostvarenu proizvodnju određenog kvaliteta i upotrebne vrijednosti u odnosu na predviđenu, planiranu proizvodnju u datom vremenu. Za izračunavanje tog koeficijenta koristi se model: Capacity intensity ratio demonstrate actual production of a certain quality and value in comparison to the intended, planned production within a certain time period. To calculate this ratio the following model is used: pri čemu je: where: Kint – koeficijent intenzivnosti kapaciteta, Kint – capacity intensity ratio EQ – efektivno ostvarena proizvodnja u datom efektivnom vremenu, EQ – effective actual production within a certain time period, PLK – planirana proizvodnja u planiranom vremenu. PLK – planned production within the planned time period. 11 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... Integralno korišćenje kapaciteta obuhvata: (1) iskorišćenje proizvodne mogućnosti (kapaciteta), (2) pokazatelj doprinosa sredstava za rad ostvarenju proizvodnje i (3) pokazatelj ostvarene proizvodnje u odnosu na sredstva za rad. Integrated capacity utilisation includes the following: (1) Utilization of production capacities, (2) contribution indicator of the equipment in the production process and (3) indicator of actual production in relation to equipment. Integralno korišćenje se mjeri pomoću koeficijenta integralnog korišćenja kapaciteta (Kiq). Ovaj koeficijent predstavlja sintezu ekstenzivnosti i intenzivnosti, odnosno dobija se umnoškom koeficijenta intenzivnog i ekstenzivnog korištenja kapaciteta. Integrated use is measured by the ratio of integrated capacity utilization (Kiq). This ratio represents a synthesis of extensiveness and intensity, i.e. it is obtained by multiplying the ratio of intensive and extensive use of capacities. Kao važan pokazatelj iskorištenja kapaciteta koristi se i ostvareni obim proizvodnje po jedinici vrijednosti sredstava za rad. Ovaj pokazatelj se dobija na taj način što se stavi u odnos ostvareni obim proizvodnje i vrijednost sredstava za rad. U vidu formule se izražava na sledeći način: As an important indicator of capacity utilization, actual volume of production per unit of equipment value is used. Such indicator is obtained by placing generated production volume and the value of equipment in a relation. Such relation is expressed as the following formula: ostvareni obim proizodnje po jedinici vrijednosti sredstava za rad=Q/Vsr Actual production volume per unit of value of equipment =Q/Vsr Povećanje udjela proizvodnje u odnosu na vrijednost opreme je, svakako, važno pitanje za svako preduzeće. Faktori koji determinišu ovaj odnos mogu se svrstati u sljedeće cjeline: (1) faktori koji doprinose povećanju produktivnosti opreme, a koji su rezultat provedene rekonstrukcije i modernizacije postojeće opreme kao i uvođenje nove opreme; (2) faktori koji doprinose povećanju broja smjena rada opreme; (3) poboljšanje iskorišćenja radnog vremena opreme; (4) ubrzanje uvođenja (zamjene stare) nove opreme; (5) smanjenje vrijednosti opreme, uvođenjem savremenije i djelotvornije; (6) zamjena ručnog rada mašinskim itd. Increasing the share of production in relation to the equipment value is certainly a very important issue for any company. The factors that determine this relationship can be divided into the following sections: (1) Factors contributing to the increase of equipment productivity - the result of the reconstruction and modernization of the existing equipment as well as the installation of new equipment; (2) Factors contributing to the increase in the number of working shifts of equipment; (3) improvement of equipment work time utilisation; (4) accelerating the introduction of new (replacement of old) equipment; (5) depreciation of the equipment by introducing more modern and more efficient equipment; (6) replacement of manual labour by machinery and so on. Pokazatelj vrijednosti sredstava za rad po jedinici rezultata je, takođe, bitan pokazatelj mjerenja kapaciteta Ovaj koeficijent se dobija iz odnosa vrijednosti sredstava za rad i ostvarene proizvodnje. Indicator of the equipment value per a unit of result is also an important indicator of measuring the capacity. This ratio is calculated from the ratio of the equipment value and actual production. Cilj svakog preduzeća je da prvi pokazatelj bude što veći, odnosno da ima što The goal of any company is to keep the first indicator as high as possible, i.e. to ensure 12 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... veću vrijednost, a da drugi bude što manji. To podrazumijeva da svako preduzeće želi ostvariti što je moguće veću proizvodnju po jedinici vrijednosti sredstava za rad, što je pokazatelj doprinosa (učinka) instalisanih sredstava za rad ostvarenom obimu proizvodnje. that its value is the highest possible, while the other should be as low as possible. This implies that every company tends to achieve the maximum amount of production per unit of value of equipment, which is an indication of the contribution (impact) of installed equipment for the actual production volume. RAZVOJNI TOK TROŠKOVA I ZONE KORIŠĆENJA KAPACITETA DEVELOPMENT OF COSTS AND ZONES OF CAPACITIES UTILISATION Dinamička analiza troškova u funkciji promjena stepena korišćenja kapaciteta pokazuje da se ovaj oblik ulaganja različito ponaša u pojedinim slojevima – zonama – proizvodnje. Pri tome, svaka od komponenti ukupnog iznosa troškova – proporcionalna, fiksna ili relativno fiksna – ima specifično ponašanje uslovljeno različitim slojevima stepena korišćenja kapaciteta. Dynamic analysis of the cost in the function of changes in the capacity utilization level indicates that this form of investment behaves differently in different layers - zones – of production. In addition, each of the components of the total costs - proportional, fixed or relatively fixed - has a specific behaviour caused by different layers of the capacity utilisation level. Pored toga, ova analiza pokazuje specifičnosti ponašanja troškova ne samo u ukupnom iznosu već i po jedinici proizvoda, kako za pojedine komponente tako i u prosjeku. In addition, this analysis shows specific behaviour of costs not only in the total amount but also per unit of production, both for individual components as well as for average value. Osnovni instrument analize dinamike troškova su zone obima proizvodnje, s obzirom na to da je struktura troškova odraz veličine kapaciteta. Ove zone se međusobno razlikuju po tome što uslovljavaju degresiju, progresiju ili optimalnost troškova u odnosu na proizvodnju. Naime pri prelasku iz jedne zone obima u drugu zonu mijenja se struktura troškova i dinamika pojedinačnih vrsta troškova u okviru zone. The main instruments of cost dynamics analysis are the production volume zones, given that the cost structure is a reflection of the capacity size. These zones differ from each other by causing degression, progression or optimality of costs in relation to the production. Namely, the transition from one volume zone to another volume zone changes the cost structure and the dynamics of the individual types of costs within the zone. Zona degresije troškova prostire se od nultog stepena iskorišćenosti kapaciteta do granice degresije troškova, koja se u prosjeku nalazi na više od ¾ kapaciteta. Zona u kojoj ukupni troškovi preduzeća ispodproporcionalno rastu, a prosječni troškovi opadaju, naziva se zona degresije. Na kraju zone degresije ukupni troškovi po jedinici proizvoda su najniži pa je u toj tački i najveća ekonomičnost proizvodnje. Degression zone covers the area from the zero degree of capacity utilization to the extent of cost degression, which is on average on more than ¾ capacities. The zone in which the total costs of a company are rising disproportionally with the drop of average costs, is called the degression zone. At the end of the degression zone the total cost per unit of the product are the lowest, meaning that the cost-effectiveness of the production at that point is the highest. 13 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... Nakon zone degresije prostire se zona optimuma. U ovoj zoni ukupni troškovi rastu jedno vrijeme proporcionalno s povećanjem obima proizvodnje, dok troškovi po jedinici proizvoda ostaju konstantni i imaju karakter proporcionalnih troškova. U ovoj zoni se postižu najniži troškovi po jedinici proizvoda. Zona optimuma obično je veoma uzana a u pojedinim preduzećima ona je samo jedna tačka, odnosno jedan stepen iskorišćenosti kapaciteta. Ova zona leži kod visokih stepena korištenja kapaciteta, odnosno izmedju 80 i 90% iskorišćenosti kapaciteta. Following the degression zone is the optimum zone. Within this zone, for a certain time, the total costs increase proportionally with the increase in production volume, while the cost per unit of the product remain constant and have the character of proportionate costs. This zone provides for the lowest cost per unit of the product. Optimum zone is usually very narrow and in some companies it is only represented by a point or a single level of capacity utilization. This zone is positioned in the high level of capacity utilisation, i.e. between 80 and 90% of capacity utilization. Kada stepen korišćenja kapaciteta prekorači zonu optimalnosti, ukupni troškovi preduzeća progresivno rastu. Ovo uslovljava i porast ukupnih troškova po jedinici proizvoda. Taj nivo zaposlenosti u kojem ukupni troškovi brže rastu od porasta obima proizvodnje predstavlja zonu progresije. U ovoj zoni, fiksni troškovi, koji su već ionako ovdje niski, po jedinici proizvoda opadaju sve manje i manje po proizvodu od stepena do stepena zaposlenosti, dok varijabilni troškovi sve više rastu po jedinici proizvoda. Zona progresije leži iznad optimalne zone. Ona obuhvata najviše stepene korišćenja kapaciteta i prostire se od zone optimalnosti do granice kapaciteta. Ukoliko se stepen korišćenja kapaciteta više udaljava od optimalne zone u pravcu granice kapaciteta, progresija troškova biće jača. When the capacity utilization level exceeds the optimum zone, the total cost of the company grows progressively. This causes an increase in the total cost per unit of the product. Such condition in which the total costs grow faster than the increase in production volume represents the progression zone. Within this zone, the fixed costs, which are already low, continue dropping per unit of the product, while the variable costs continue growing per unit of the product. Progression zone lies above the optimum zone. It includes the highest levels of capacity utilization and extends from the optimum zone to the border zone of capacity. If the level of capacity utilization is shifted away from the optimum zone towards the capacity border zone, the progression of costs will be intensified. Sve karakteristične promjene stepena zaposlenosti po zonama, najčešće su rezultat organizacionih mjera pri korišćenju raspoloživih proizvodnih mogućnosti. All the characteristic changes in the level of engagement per zones, are mainly the result of organizational measures in the use of available production capacities. U razvojnom toku ukupnih troškova i prosječnih troškova po jedinici proizvoda razlikuje se zone: (1) zona degresije, (2) zona optimalnosti, (2) zona progresije. The following zones can be distinguished in the development progress of the total cost and average cost per unit: (1) degression zone, (2) zone of optimality, (3) progression zone Kada mezoekonomski sistem ima uspostavljen određeni kapacitet, čije korišćenje još nije započelo, ukupni troškovi elemenata proizvodnje ipak su veći od nule. Naime, i pri nultom stepenu korišćenja kapaciteta javljaju se fiksni troškovi koji su uslovljeni samim uspostavljanjem proizvodne mogućnosti mezoekonomskog sistema i koji su neotklonjivi pri njenom nekorištenju. When the mesoeconomic system has established a certain capacity, whose utilisation has not yet been initiated, the total cost of production elements is still higher than zero. Namely, even in the zero level of capacity utilization there are fixed costs that are caused thereby establishing production capabilities of mesoeconomic system and are unrecoverable in its non-use. 14 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... Međutim, svaka jedinica proizvoda nastala u okviru datog kapaciteta izaziva određene troškove, povećavajući tako ukupan iznos ovoga oblika ulaganja iznad nivoa koji čine fiksni troškovi. Ovaj prirast troškova izazvan izradom određenog broja jedinica proizvoda obuhvata, uglavnom, troškove osnovnog i pomoćnog materijala, radne snage na poslovima izrade, kao i troškova uslovljenih organizacionom strukturom korištenja kapaciteta. To, drugim riječima, znači da svaka nova količina proizvoda u okviru datog kapaciteta uslovljava pojavu proporcionalnih troškova (Tπ) i relativno fiknih troškova (Tp) ukoliko se uspostavlja priprema novog sloja korištenja kapaciteta.1 However, each of the product unit made within the capacity causes certain expenditures, thus increasing the total amount of this form of investment above the level formed by fixed costs. Such cost increase caused by producing a number of units of the product mainly includes the cost of primary and auxiliary materials, the labour in charge of production, as well as the costs conditioned by the organizational structure of capacity utilization. In other words, it means that every new product quantity within the given capacity influences the development of proportional cost (Tπ) and relatively fixed cost (Tp) if the preparation of a new layer of capacity utilization is established.1 S obzirom na specifičnosti djelovanja svakog od ovih karakterističnih slojeva obima proizvodnje u korištenju uspostavljenog kapaciteta konkretnog mezoekonomsko sistema na ponašanje ukupnih troškova i troškova po jedinici proizvoda, u ekonomskoj teoriji i praksi posebno se tretiraju zona degresije, zona progresije i zona optimalnosti. Given the specific action of each of these characteristic layers of production volume in the utilisation of established capacity of specific mesoeconomic system onto the behaviour of total costs and costs per unit of production, both in economic theory and in practice, the degression zone and optimality zone are treated separately. Zona degresije Degression zone Zona degresije se prostire od nultog stepena zaposlenosti do granice degresije, tj. do zone optimalnosti. U ovoj zoni troškovi imaju degresivni razvojni tok tako da ukupni troškovi rastu ispod proporcionalno a troškovi po jedinici proizvoda opadaju, što je uslovljeno degresijom fiksnih troškova po jedinici, dok proporcionalni troškovi ostaju manje - više isti. U početku ove zone degresija troškova je veoma jaka i opadanje troškova od jednog stepena zaposlenosti do drugog je znatna; kako se kapacitet više upošljava dolazi se do granica degresije i razlika između troškova po stepenima je sve manja. U ovoj zoni je specifično da se mora dovesti u vezu proizvodnja (brže raste ) i troškovi. Zona degresije se proteže do tačke kada se ukupni Degression zone extends from the zero level of engagement to the degression borderline, i.e. the optimality zone. The costs in this zone have degressive pace so that the total costs increase disproportionally with declining cost per unit of production, caused by degression of fixed costs per unit, while the proportional costs remain more or less - the same. At the beginning of this zone the cost degression is very intense, with significant decline in the cost from one engagement degree to another; as the capacity is increasingly engaged, the borderline of degression is reached reducing the difference between the costs per degree. In this zone is characterised by the fact that the (faster growing) production and costs must be brought into correlation. Degression zone extends to the point where the to- 1 Uspostavljanje kapaciteta podrazumijeva globalnu pripremu proizvodnje. Međutim, da bi se započelo sa izradom konkretneog proizvoda, preduzeće mora uspostaviti posebu pripremu u vidu projektovanja, nabavke, istraživanja tržišta i sl. za tu vrstu proizvoda. 1 Establishing capacity involves the preparation of global production. However, in order to begin drafting a specific product, the company must establish a special preparation in the form of design, procurement, market research and the like. for such type of product 15 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... troškovi počinju povećavati proporcionalno sa povećanjem obima proizvodnje. tal costs are beginning to increase in proportion with the increase in production volume. Tq Q Grafikon 1. Razvojni tok troškova po jedinici proizvoda (cijene koštanja ) u funkciji dinamike proizvodnje po karakterističnim zonama korišćenja kapaciteta. Graph 1. Development stream of costs per unit of production (cost) in the function of the production dynamics per characteristic zones of capacity utilisation. Troškovi po jedinici opadaju od tačke kada se izjednačavaju sa varijabilnim troškovima i prelaze u zonu optimalnosti. The cost per unit declines from the point where they are equalised with variable costs and they transit into the zone of optimality. T Q Grafikon 2. Razvojni tok ukupnih troškova u funkciji dinamike proizvodnje po karakterističnim zonama korišćenja kapaciteta. Graph 2. Development stream of the total cost in the function of the production dynamics per characteristic zones of capacity utilisation. Zona optimalnosti Optimality zone Zona optimalnosti – predstavlja sloj (od zone degresije do zone progresije) korišćenja kapaciteta u kome se ukupni troškovi proporcionalno povećavaju sa promjenom Optimality zone - a layer (from degression zone to progression zone) of capacity utilization in which the total costs increase proportionally with the change of production 16 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... obima proizvodnje. Troškovi po jedinici proizvoda stagniraju i dostižu najmanji iznos. Kada se nastavlja povećanje obima proizvodnje, dolazi do povećavanja troškova i prelazi se u zonu progresije. volume. Costs per unit of production are in stagnation and reach the minimum amount. When the increase in the volume of production is continued, there is an increase in the cost, thus transiting into the progression zone. Međutim, u ekonomskoj stvarnosti, razvojni tok troškova ne odvija se sa tako preciznom razlikom između degresije i progresije, nego se između tih karakterističnih slojeva javlja jedan sloj u kome cijena koštanja, odnosno iznos troškova po jedinici proizvoda, stagnira. However, in economic reality, the development stream of costs does not occur with such precise difference between degression and progression. A layer in which the cost price and the costs per unit of production are stagnating, appears between those two typical layers. Taj sloj u kome se ukupni troškovi kreću proporcionalno promjenama obima proizvodnje, a cijena koštanja stagnira, naziva se zona optimalnosti. Pojava zone optimalnosti umjesto jedne tačke, koja označava optimalni obim proizvodnje, rezultat je složenosti organizacione strukture korišćenja uspostavljenog kapaciteta. Ova ekonomska pojava mijenjanja obima proizvodnje u okviru datog kapaciteta ponaša se pod dejstvom mnogobrojnih i različitih faktora, te se na granici između njenog jednog i drugog karakterističnog dijela ne javlja oštar prelaz nego se stvara određeni sloj čija je širina uslovljena kvantitativnom strukturom ukupnih troškova konkretnog mezoekonomskog sistema. Such layer in which the total costs move proportionally to changes in production volume while the cost price is stagnant, is called the zone of optimality. The occurrence of optimality zone instead of a single point, which indicates the optimal production volume, is a result of the complexity of the organizational structure of the established capacity utilisation. This economic phenomenon of changing the volume of production within the given capacity acts under the influence of numerous and various factors, without a sharp transition of the borderlines between the two of its distinctive parts, but rather with a layer whose width is determined by the quantitative structure of the total cost of a specific mesoeconomic system. Kada na određenom stepenu korišćenja kapaciteta prestane degresija troškova, pri daljem povećanju obima proizvodnje ukupni troškovi se povećavaju u srazmjeri sa povećanjem obima proizvodnje, a troškovi po jedinici proizvoda ostaju konstantni. Takva pojava se može kvantitativno izraziti. Do toga dolazi jer se koeficijent promjene troškova (ΔKt ) i koeficijent promjene obima proizvodnje u okviru datog kapaciteta (ΔKij ) međusobno izjednačavaju: When a cost degression ceases at a certain level of capacity utilization, In the case of further increase in the total volume of production there is an increase in total costs in proportion to the increase in production volume, with the costs per unit remaining constant. This phenomenon can be quantified. It occurs because the coefficient of variation of costs (ΔKt) and the coefficient of variation in production volume within a given capacity (ΔKij) are mutually equalised: ΔKt = ΔKg. Granica između zone degresije, zone optimalnosti i zone progresije sklone su pomjeranju unutar mezoekonomskog sistema, u vezi sa promjenom dejstva faktora koji na poslovanje tog sistema djeluju. Tako na The borderline between the zones of degression, optimality and progression are prone to movement within the mesoeconomic system, in connection with the change of the factors acting on the operation of such sys17 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... primjer, promjene na tržištu sirovina i gotovih proizvoda, izmjene ekonomske politike društvene zajednice i sl. usloviće promjenu poslovne politike konkretnog mezoekonomskog sistema. U tom smislu doći će do izbora novih proizvodnih programa, povećanja ili smanjenja broja serija i njihovih veličina, izmjene asortimana proizvoda i sl. Zato je nužno stalno povećanje svih kretanja i na toj osnovi donošenje fleksibilnih planova poslovanja. tem. For example, changes in the market of raw materials and finished products, changes of the economic policy of a community, etc, will cause a change of business policy of the particular mesoeconomic system. In that sense, there will be a selection of new production programs, increase or decrease of the number of series and their quantity, change in the range of products, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously increase all the movements and adopt flexible business plans on that basis. Zona progresije Progression zone Obim proizvodnje, u okviru datog kapaciteta, može da se povećava i preko zone optimalnosti, ali tada dolazi do pojave progresije kako ukupnih troškova tako i cijene koštanja. Taj sloj proizvodnje, od gornje tačke zone optimalnosti do nivoa tehničkog kapaciteta, karakteriše se intenzivnijim rastom troškova od porasta obima proizvodnje, zbog čega se naziva zona progresije. The volume of production, within a given capacity, can also be increased through the zone of optimality. However it causes the occurrence of progression both in the total cost and the cost price. Such production layer, from the top level of the optimality zone to the level of technical capacity, is characterized by intensive growth of the cost from the increase in production volume, which is why it is called the progression zone. Povećanje proizvodnje iznad nivoa zone optimalnosti uslovljava prenaprezanje uslovljene organizacione strukture korišćenja kapaciteta. U takvim uslovima progresivno rastu prosječni troškovi po jedinici proizvoda, odnosno cijena koštanja, što negativno utiče na poslovni uspjeh. The increase in production above the zone of optimality caused overstressing of the conditioned organizational structure of capacity utilisation. In such conditions, the average cost per unit of production, or cost price, is progressively increased, which adversely affects the business success. Da bi preduzeće ostvarilo dobit, mora da ostvari prihod veći od ukupnih troškova. U protivnom, ako su troškovi veći od prihoda, preduzeće ostvaruje gubitak, koji se može pokriti samo smanjenjem imovine preduzeća. Ukoliko se kapacitet preduzeća koristi u planiranim okvirima, onda je realna pretpostavka da će prihod koji se ostvari realizacijom planiranog kapaciteta doprinijeti da prihod bude veći od troškova. Imajući u vidu da troškovi preduzeća imaju svoju strukturu, te se pojedini elementi te strukture različito ponašaju, u skladu sa dinamikom korišćenja kapaciteta For the company to make profit, it must achieve the revenue higher than the total cost. Otherwise, if the costs exceed revenues, the company makes losses, which can be covered only by reducing assets of the company. If the capacity of the company is used as planned, it would be realistic to assume that the revenue derived from the implementation of the planned capacity will contribute to having revenues exceeding the costs. Bearing in mind that the costs of a company have their own structure, and that some elements of the structure behave differently in accordance with the rate of capacity utilization and, Ostvarenje dobiti u preduzeću 18 Profit making of the company M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... a, prije svega, otpornost fiksne komponente da se prilagodi promjenama kapaciteta, mnoga preduzeća može dovesti do gubitka. Uslov za ostvarenje dobiti u preduzeću je korištenje kapaciteta u planiranim okvirima. Dajemo jedan primjer kako neostvarenje planiranih ciljeva dovodi preduzeće u gubitak. above all, the resistance of the fixed components to adapt to changes in capacity may result in causing losses to many companies. The requirement for profit making in the company is the utilization of its capacities as planned. Here is an example of how the failure to realize the planned objectives results in a loss for the company. Tabela 1 Pregled iskorištenja kapaciteta i vrijednosti proizvodnje u periodu 1. januar - 31. decembar 2004. godine. Table 1 Summary of capacity utilization and production value in the period 1st January – 31st December 2004. R. br. [No.] Grupa proiz- Planirano za voda 2005. god. [Product U fizičkim group] jedinicama mjere [Planned for 2005. In physical measurement units] Ostvareno u 2004. god. U fizičkim jedinicama mjere [Actual production in 2004. In physical measurement units] 2 Cijena po jedinici mjere [Price per unit] Vrijednost u KM [Value in KM] 3 2x3 Stepen iskorištenja kapaciteta ostvareno planirano [Utilisation level of capacities actual planned] 1. Proizvod 1 Product 1 52.300 43 713 5,45 238235,85 83,58 2. Proizvod 2 Product 2 30.000 27 104 6,85 185662,40 90,34 3. Proizvod 3 Product 3 25.000 17 881 15,75 281625,75 71,52 4. Proizvod 4 Product 4 12.000 7 794 3,70 28837,80 64,95 5. Proizvod 5 Product 5 150 97 70,70 6875,90 64,66 6. Proizvod 6 Product 6 220 151 130,00 19630,00 68,86 7. Proizvod 7 Product 7 510 411 175,00 71925,00 80,58 8. Proizvod 8 Product 8 170 162 108,00 17469,00 95,29 9. Proizvod 9 Product 9 90 82 360,00 29520,00 91,11 10. Proizvod 10 Product 10 1 1 10,00 10,00 100,00 11. Proizvod 11 Product 11 150 133 40,50 53865,00 88,66 12. Proizvod 12 Product 12 150.000 123.759 5,00 618795,00 82,51 13. UKUPNO TOTAL 1552460,70 19 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... Tabela 2 0stvarenje plana prihoda i rashoda preduzeća AA R. br. No. Naziv Title 1. Prihod od realizacije proizvoda i usluga [Revenue from sales and services] Prihod od usluga i zakupnina [Revenue from services and leasehold] Ostali prihodi [Other revenues] UKUPAN PRIHOD [TOTAL REVENUE] Direktni troškovi [Direct expenditures] Indirektni troškovi [Indirect expenditures] UKUPNI TROŠKOVI [TOTAL EXPENDITURES] 2. 3. 13. 1. 2. 3. Table 2 Realisation of the plan of revenues and expenditures of the company AA Ostvareno u КМ Achieved in BAM 2 Planirano Planned 3 Indeks Index 2x3 1.817.935 18.235.400 9,97 325.200 4.250.100 7,65 412.500 2.850.000 14,47 2.555.635 25.335.500 10,70 16.556.000 24.213.000 68,38 66.126.000 84.280.000 78,46 82.681.000 108.493.000 73,42 Gubitak = ostvareni ukupan prihod – ukupni troškovi = 2.555.635 – 82.681.000 = - 80.125.365 KM. Loss = total realized revenue - total expenditures = 2.555.635 – 82.681.000 = - 80.125.365 BAM. Prema tome, u posmatranom periodu preduzeće je ostvarilo gubitak od 80.125.365 KM. Therefore, in this period the company made a loss of 80.125.365 BAM. Iz navedene tabele se vidi da su svi pokazatelji, izuzev prihoda od usluga, u značajnom padu, što je posljedica slabog korišćenja kapaciteta i slabe naplate za realizovane proizvode od kupaca. This above table shows that all indicators, except for Revenue from services, register a significant decline as a result of low capacity utilization and low collection of payments from the customers for the products. Preduzeće AA je, raskidom kooperantskih odnosa izgubilo značajan dio tržišta. By terminating its cooperation relations, the company AA has lost a significant segment of the market. Iz navedenog primjera preduzeća AA se jasno vidi da je, i uprkos visokom stepenu iskorišćenja kapaciteta (u konkretnom primjeru preko 70%), preduzeće zapalo u gubitak. Gubitak je tim veći što se više koristi kapacitet a proizvodi se ne realizuju. Time se imobilišu obrtna sredstva, a ako tome dodamo i neiskorišćene fiksne troškove, onda je gubitak nenadoknadiv i prestanak preduzeća sa radom je neizbježan. Prema tome, nije samo slabo iskorišćenje kapaciteta odgovorno za gubitak, već može do gubitka dovesti i njegovo pogrešno korišćenje. From the above example of the company AA it is clear that, despite the high degree of capacity utilization (in this case over 70%), the company plunged into loss. The loss is even greater if the capacity is increasingly utilised without the realisation of the products. This immobilizes liquid assets, and if we add the unused fixed costs, such loss is irreparable and the termination of the company’s operations is inevitable. Thus, not only the poor capacity utilization is responsible for the loss, but its misuse can also lead to the loss. 20 M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES... ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Cilj i ekonomski motiv poslovanja preduzeća je da ostvari što veće poslovne rezultate, odnosno da ostvari što veću dobit, kao finalni izraz njegovog ekonomskog rezultata. The objective and economic motive of a company’s business is to achieve the highest business results possible as well as to make the highest profit possible, as the final expression of its economic result. “Dobitak je motiv onog ko raspolaže u slobodnim sredstvima, kapitalom da svoja sredstva i energiju, pamet i radnu snagu uloži u privrednu aktivnost, i da na osnovu uložene energije, pomoću sredstava ostvari dobitak, koji će mu obezbeđivati željeni nivo života, a za preduzeće opstanak i kontinuitet poslovanja, kao i razvoj, odnosno podizanje nivoa poslovanja i kvaliteta ekonomije na viši nivo” (Kostić, Milojević, 2001). “Profit is the motive of the one disposing with the free assets - capital to invest its assets and energy, knowhow and manpower in economic activity, and on the basis of the energy invested, obtains profit utilising the assets, which will provide the desired living quality to him, as well as the survival and continuation of operation and development of the company, i.e. increasing the level of business and the quality of the economy to a higher level” (Kostić, Milojević, 2001). Međutim, ukoliko preduzeće svojim poslovanjem ostvaruje veće ukupne rashode od ukupnih prihoda, kao što je slučaj sa pomenutim preduzećem, da posluje sa gubitkom. Gubitak može biti uslovljen većim brojem faktora: društvenim, organizacionim i sl. However, if the company in the course of its business registers higher total expenditures than the total revenue, as is the case with the aforementioned company, to operate at a loss, such loss can be caused by a number of factors: social, organizational, etc. Cilj rada bio je da se prikaže kako se troškovi i rezultati u odnosu na promjenu stepena korišćenja kapaciteta nalaze u međuzavisnosti. The aim of the paper was to demonstrate how the costs and results in relation to the change in the level of capacity utilization are highly interdependent. U slučaju kad se dešava da je stepen korištenja kapaciteta na znatno nižem nivou, posljedice su povećanje cijene koštanja pod uticajem fiksnih troškova a, samim tim, i smanjenje finansijskih rezultata. Razlog je u tome što se fiksni troškovi ne mijenjaju srazmjerno promjeni obima proizvodnje, a po jedinici proizvoda su manji ukoliko je obim proizvodnje veći, koji opet zavisi od stepena iskorištenosti kapaciteta. In case that the level of capacity utilization is at a considerably lower level, the consequences include the increase in cost under the influence of fixed costs which, consequently, causes the reduction of financial results. The reason is that fixed costs do not change in proportion to changes in production volume and are lower per unit of production if the volume of production is higher, which in turn depends on the level of capacity utilization. Bitno je naglasiti da je u interesu preduzeća da iskorištenje kapaciteta bude na što višem nivou, ali u okviru zone optimalnosti, jer samo tako (bez zanemarivanja drugih faktora, npr. organizacionih uslova) preduzeće obezbjeđuje opstanak na tržištu i postiže zadovoljavajuće rezultate. It is important to note that it is in the interest of the company to maintain the capacity utilization at the highest level possible, but within the optimality zone, since it is the only way (without disregarding other factors, such as organizational conditions) which provides the company with survival at the market, enabling it to achieve satisfactory results. 21 M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI... LITERATURA LITERATURA Anđelković R., Berberović Š., Stavrić B. (1994). Ekonomika preduzeća. Beograd. Anđelković R., Berberović Š., Stavrić B. (1994). Corporate Economics. Beograd. Božić, V. (1988). Mezoekonomika. Beograd: Galaksija. Božić, V. (1988). Mesoeconomics. 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Ekonomski fakultet Banja Luka. 22 EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY ISTRAZIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS Ognjen Zupur, dipl. ek. Pregledni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301003Z, UDK 001.895:005.511 Review paper REZIME SUMMARY Mada su praktično srasli u jednu cjelinu kojom čine skup aktivnosti unutar velikih kompanija, istraživanje (Research) i razvoj (Development) su termini koji opisuju dvije prilično različite aktivnosti. Ukoliko se detaljnije analiziraju troškovi velikih kompanija ustanoviće se da je većina uloženih sredstava utrošena na razvoj, a mnogo manje na istraživanje. Rezultat osnovnih istraživanja jesu nova naučna znanja: teoreme i teorije, koje se predstavljaju naučnim člancima i knjigama. Naspram toga, polazna tačka razvoja već je ustanovljena u vidu kreiranog skupa znanja, dok napori na osnovu rezultata inovativnih aktivnosti imaju za rezultat tehnološke inovacije koje često mogu biti zaštićene patentima. Stoga predmet istraživanja u ovom radu jeste upravo sagledavanje istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti kao okosnice tehnoloških inovacija. Although practically coalesced into a single unit, which consists of a set of activities within large companies, research (Research) and Development (Development) are terms that describe two quite different activities. If a more detailed analysis of the costs of large companies shall be established that most of the investment was spent on development, and much less on research. The result of basic research are new scientific knowledge: theorems and theories, which represent the scientific articles and books. In contrast, the starting point of development is already established in the mind created a set of knowledge, while efforts are based on the results of innovative activities are the result of technological innovations that can often be protected by patents. Therefore, the subject of this paper is just perception research and development activities as well as the backbone of technological innovation. Ključne riječi: istraživanje, tehnologija, inovacije. Keywords: research, technology, innovations. razvoj, development, UVOD INTRODUCTION Sagledavši vrijeme iza nas, može se konstatovati da su pojedinci u svojim profesijama postizali vrhunske rezultate, odnosno otkrivali nepoznanice na osnovu sopstvenih intuicija i talenta. Međutim, proces je bio spor i veoma dug, sa mnogobrojnim promašenim eksperimentima, pri čemu bi na putokaz i kretanje od početka ukazivao upravo neuspjeli eksperiment. U svijetu savremenog poslovanja i neizvjesne sutrašnjice, intuicija je zamijenjena naučnim prilazom u postizanju After having analyzed the time behind us, it can be concluded that individuals in their professions achieved superior results, and discovering unknowns based on their own intuition and talent. However, the process was slow and very long, with many a failed experiment, wherein the at sign and the movement from the beginning indicated just failed experiment. In the world of modern business and an uncertain tomorrow, intuition is replaced by scientific approach to 23 O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA vrhunskih rezultata. Savremeno poslovanje i progresivni svijet su, zahvaljujući nauci, otkrili mnogobrojne nepoznanice i kreirali tehničke, tehnološke i druge novine ne samo u posljednjih pet decenija nego u cijeloj ljudskoj istoriji. achieve superior results. Modern business and the whole world thanks to science discovered many unknowns and create technical, technological and other innovations in the past five decades, but in all of human history. Prenošenjem poslova na mehanizme, čovjek je stvorio uslove da na osnovu istih mehanizama i uz više vremena, ubrza, efektivnije inovira i razvija nauku, kao najefikasniji instrument u upoznavanju nepoznatog. Naročito je bitno upoznavanje prirodnog poretka i primjene zakonitosti na društveni poredak, odnosno na organizacione sisteme. Zbog toga se i inovativne aktivnosti povezuju sa naukom i to sa razvojem fundamentalnih, ali i primijenjenih nauka. Razvojem nauke, bitno je razvijati i „kontrolisanu maštu“ sa traženjem odgovora na postavljena pitanja. Sa druge strane, bez obzira na to da li su u pitanju nauka, stručna znanja ili postupci, tehnologija je ta koja je uključena u svaku aktivnost koja stvara novu vrijednost. Osnovu razvoja tehnologije čine prirodne nauke. Međutim, tehnologija je velikim dijelom bazirana i na matematici, a sve više se veže za psihologiju, sociologiju, medicinu i dr. Svakako da je jedna od najznačajnijih i najjačih poluga savremene ekonomije međusobna povezanost, uslovljenost i zavisnost nauke, razvoja, inovativnih aktivnosti i tehnološkog progresa, što će se i prezentovati u ovom radu. Transferring operations to the mechanisms, man has created conditions for the basis of the same mechanisms and with more time, accelerate, innovate and develop more effective teaching, as the most effective tool in getting to know the unknown. It is especially important to meet the natural order and the application of the principles of the social order, and the organizational systems. This is why the innovative activities associated with science and the development of fundamental, and applied sciences. Development of science, it is essential to develop “controlled imagination” to answer the following questions. On the other hand, regardless of whether it comes to science, expertise or procedures, technology is the one that is involved in any activity that creates new value. Based on the development of technology make natural science. However, the technology is largely based on mathematics, and is increasingly tied to psychology, sociology, medicine, etc. Certainly one of the most important and most powerful lever of modern economic interconnectivity, causality and dependence science, development of innovative activities and technological progress, it will be and presented in this paper. PROCES TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS PROCESS Težak izazov za većinu kompanija je kako riječi pretvoriti u djelo koje donosi praktične rezultate u vidu narastajućih prihoda putem konstantnog toka inovacija, a zarad izgradnje konkurentske prednosti (Skarzinski i Gibson, 2009). Tehnološke inovacije su vrsta inovacija koja može izmijeniti konkurentski položaj preduzeća, ali upravljanje inovativnim aktivnostima je kompleksno, uključujući ljude, organizacione procese i planove. Tehnološke inovacije sačinjene su od tri interfunkcionalne faze u Difficult challenge for most companies is to turn words into action that delivers practical results in terms of increasing revenue through a constant flow of innovation, and for the sake of building a competitive advantage (Skarzinski and Gibson, 2009). Technological innovations are the kind of innovation that can change the competitive position of the company, but the management of innovative activities is complex, including the involvement of people, process and organizational plans. Technological innovations are made up of three stages in the self-de- 24 O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL... samorazvijajućem ciklusu. Prva se odnosi na kreaciju, odsnosno primjenjivu ideju. Druga na praktičnu primjenu, a treća na njeno raspršivanje u društvu. Proces je zaokružen ukoliko dođe do difuzije tehnoloških izuma (Lajović i Vulić, 2010). Proces tehnoloških inovacija, prema istraživanjima u svijetu u ovoj oblasti, može trajati 20 do 30 godina, mada za najveći broj industrijskih proizvoda inovacije traju, od inicijalne ideje do tržišta, 3 do 8 godina. veloped interfunctional cycle. The first relates to the creation, or, according applicable idea. Second on the practical application, and a third on its dispersal in society. The process is completed when there is a diffusion of technological inventions (Lajović and Vulic, 2010). The process of technological innovation, according to research in the world in this area, it may take 20 to 30 years, although the largest number of industrial product innovation are long, from the initial idea to the market 3-8 years. Proces tehnoloških inovacija prema Robertsu (1999) obuhvata šest „dubinskih“ faza i prikazan je na shemi 1. The process of technological innovation by Roberts (1999) includes six “in-depth” phase and is shown in scheme one. Spotting an opportunity Formulisanje ideja Formulating ideas Rješavanje problema Troubleshooting Prototip Prototype Komercijalni razvoj Comercial development T Technology use Shema 1. Proces tehnoloških inovacija Scheme 1. The process of technological innovations Može se konstatovati da su tehnološke inovacije proces sa više faza, sa značajnim varijacijama kako u primarnom zadatku tako i u pitanjima menadžmenta i efektivne menadžerske prakse, ostvarene među tim fazama. U navedenom osnovno jeste da je svaka od faza aktivnosti „opterećena“ traženjem odgovora na različita pitanja. Uzevši navedeno u obzir, ključno pitanje za početnu fazu jeste: Na koji način podstaći interes za tehnološke inovacije, koju grupu ljudi i koje strategije primijeniti u pravcu efektivnog prikupljanja ideja u tom cilju? It can be concluded that the technological innovation process with several stages, with significant variations in both the primary task, as well as issues management and effective management practices, achieved between these stages. Primary in this, primarily, is that each of the phases of activity, “loaded” to answer the various questions. Taking this into consideration, the key question for the initial phase is: How to stimulate interest in technological innovation, which is a group of people and that the strategy applied in the direction of the effective collection of ideas to that end? 25 O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA Za primjenu strategije (fokusiranje na tehnologiju) kompanija naglašava osnovna istraživanja i razvoj novih tehnologija, te primjenu ovih tehnologija u razvoju proizvoda (Cvetković, 2011). Karakteristika faze „prepoznavanje prilika“ jeste što manje kontrole sa što vise ideja, razmatranje različitih metoda, podstrekavanje konflikta, te stimuliranje inputa. U ovoj fazi je bitno ući sa malim finansiranjem istraživačko-razvojne aktivnosti, bez strogo propisanih pravila i procedura. To apply the strategy (focusing on technology) company emphasizes fundamental research and development of new technologies, and the application of these technologies through product development (Cvetkovic, 2011). Characteristic phases “identify opportunities” is less control with as many ideas, consideration of various methods, instigating conflict and stimulating inputs. At this stage it is important to enter the small funding of research and development activities, without strictly prescribed rules and procedures. Nasuprot njoj, u fazi komercijalnog razvoja, na primjer, zadatak uključuje detaljnu specifikaciju i transformaciju već redukovanih ideja u proizvodnju prihvatljivih prototipova. Fokus u ovoj fazi je usmjeren na stvaranje novog proizvoda, tehnički jasno definisanog, spremnog za proizvodnju u velikom obimu, uz prihvatljive konkurentske proizvodne troškove. To uključuje detaljnu tehničku kontrolu, stroge finansijske kriterijume za korišćenje resursa, čvrste formalne procedure vrednovanja, i sl., što je suprotno prvoj fazi. Bitno je istaći da se inovativni proces ostvaruje putem tehničko-tehnoloških napora, vodeći računa o internom organizacionom kontekstu, ali uključujući snažni uticaj eksternog kako tehnološkog tako i tržišnog okruženja. Sve studije efektivnih inovacija ukazuju na značajan doprinos spoljne tehnologije, kao i to da je uspjeh predominantno određen usklađenošću proizvoda sa zahtjevima kupaca, kao i aktivnošću konkurencije. Prema profesoru Hilu (Hill i Jones, 1998), u procesu izgradnje efikasne inovativne aktivnosti bitno je: (1) razvijati istraživačke sposobnosti; (2) uspostavljati adekvatne selektivne procese za projekte; (3) integrisati različite funkcija u preduzeću. Opposite her, in the stage of commercial development, for example, the task involves a detailed specification and transformation, but the idea of reducing the production of acceptable prototypes. The focus at this stage is focused on the production of new products, technical clearly defined, ready for production in a large scale, with acceptable competitive production costs. It includes detailed technical control, strict financial criteria for the use of resources, rigorous formal evaluation procedures, as opposed to the first stage. It is important to note that the innovative process is achieved through technical and technological efforts, taking into account the internal organizational context, but with a strong external impact, both technological, and market environment. All studies of effective innovations indicate a significant contribution of foreign technology, and that success is predominantly determined by the compliance of the product with the requirements of customers, as well as the activity of the competition. According to Professor Hil (Hill and Jones, 1998), in the process of building an effective innovation activities is essential: (1) develop research skills; (2) establish adequate selective processes for projects; (3) integrate various functions in company. RAZVOJ ISTRAŽIVAČKE SPOSOBNOSTI RESEARCH ABILITIES DEVELOPMENT Razvojna istraživanja obuhvataju aktivnosti usmjerene na pomjeranje granica naučnih saznanja. Ta nova saznanja koja, u krajnjem slučaju, treba da rezultuju inovacijama, posmatrana sa aspekta konkretnog preduzeća, odnose se na područje njenih postojećih ili Development research, as is well known, include activities aimed at move boundaries of scientific knowledge. These new findings, which, in extreme cases should result in innovation, seen as a key for a company related to the area of its existing or po- 26 O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL... potencijalnih interesa. Inovacije se pojavljuju kao generatori promjena, ali u povratnoj sprezi razvijena društva stvaraju povoljnije uslove za razvoj inovacija, što promjene čine sve dramatičnijim (Mirosavljević, 2008). Otuda je i logična zainteresovanost preduzeća za istraživanja, koja se mogu ostvarivati samostalno, ili u saradnji sa drugim privrednim ili naučno - istraživačkim organizacijama. Opredjeljenje preduzeća da započne i razvija fundamentalna istraživanja samostalno, ili sa drugim organizacijama, podrazumijeva, prije svega, adekvatan organizacioni ambijent koji pospješuje kreativnost. tential interest. Innovation is seen as generators of change, but the Feedback developed societies create favorable conditions for the development of innovation, which are increasingly dramatic changes (Mirosavljević, 2008). Hence the logical interest of companies for research, which can be exercised independently or in cooperation with other economic or scientific research organizations. Commitment of companies to start and develop basic research independently or with other organizations, primarily entails adequate organizational environment that promotes creativity. To podrazumijeva visoku samostalnost istraživača, koji će raditi na istraživačkim projektima u izdvojenom ambijentu, različitom po radnom vremenu, metodu nagrađivanja, mjerljivosti rada, modelu kontrole i sl., u odnosu na osnovnu proizvodnu, odnosno uslužnu djelatnost preduzeća. Istraživanje, u odnosu na primijenjeno istraživanje se karakteriše još i (Šehić, 2002): This implies a high autonomy of researchers, who will work on research projects in the sandbox environment, different in-time, the method of remuneration of measurability, model control, in relation to primary production and service sector companies. The study, in relation to the applied research is characterized by more and the next (Sehic, 2002): 1. istraživačko područje, u pogledu svoje interdisciplinarnosti, je uže u odnosu na preostale faze istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti; 1. research area, in terms of its interdisciplinarity, is narrower than in other phases of research and development activities; 2. broj istraživača, koji radi na fundamentalnom istraživanju u okviru jednog ili više povezanih preduzeća je najčešće mali; 2. number of researchers working on fundamental research within one or more associated enterprises, is usually small; 3. kako se nova saznanja (naučna otkrića) ne mogu planirati, ni normirati, otuda je ovdje nepotrebna, ili, još preciznije, štetna, normiranost u bilo kom pogledu - vrijeme, rezultati i s1.; 3. how new knowledge (scientific discovery) can not be planned, nor standardized, hence here is unnecessary, or even harmful accurate, standards in any way - the weather, the results, and s1.; 4. u skladu sa prethodnim, nužna je tzv. “teorijska” naklonost istraživača, odnosno otvoreni intelektualni interes za novim saznanjima itd. 4. in accordance with the foregoing, it is necessary so. “theoretical” liking researchers and open intellectual interest in new ideas, etc. S obzirom na nabrojane karakteristike bazičnog istraživanja, proizilazi da istraživačima u ovoj oblasti organičenim konceptom treba obezbijediti dosta samostalnosti, horizontalne komunikacije, što manje formalizma u međusobnim odnosima itd. Primijenjena istraživanja su usmjerena na rješavanje praktičnih problema. Ova istraživanja baziraju se na rezultatima fundamentalnih istraživanja, Given those characteristics, basic research, shows that researchers in this field limited concept should provide a lot of independence, horizontal communication, the less formalism in interpersonal relationships. Applied research focused on solving practical problems. This research is based on the results of fundamental research, which have been reached anywhere, either 27 O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA do kojih se došlo bilo gdje, ili u samom preduzeću, ili na drugom mjestu. Shodno ovome, primijenjena istraživanja se tretiraju kao druga faza istraživačko-razvojnog ciklusa. in the company or elsewhere. Consequently, the applied research is treated as the second phase of the research and development cycle. Razvojna istraživanja, u skladu sa svojom suštinom, u praksi su često neodvojiva od primijenjenih istraživanja, te se, kao takva, posmatraju kao jedna cjelina za koju treba naći jedinstveno organizaciono rješenje. Glavna obilježja razvojnog istraživanja su (Šehić, 1990): Development research, in accordance with its substance, in practice they are often inseparable from applied research, and, as such, are viewed as a whole that needs to find a unique organizational solution. The main features of the development research (Sehic, 1990): 1. istraživačko područje, u pogledu svoje interdisciplinarnosti, se siri kako se istraživačka aktivnost udaljava od fundamentalnog, a približava prelazu u razvojna istraživanja; 1. research area, in terms of its interdisciplinarity, is spreading to the research activity away from the fundamental and the approaching transition to development research; 2. u skladu sa prethodnim obilježjem, povećava se i broj istraživača; 2. in accordance with the preceding element, increasing the number of researchers; 3. povezanost među istraživačima i konkretnim zadacima putem operativnih linija je daleko preciznija i intenzivnija u odnosu na bazična istraživanja, te se kao posljedica toga sužavaju granice samostalnosti istraživača; 3. relationship between researchers and the specific tasks by the operating line is far more precise and intense compared to basic research, and as a consequence the narrow limits of the independence of researchers; 4. kako istraživačka djelatnost prelazi u vise faze istraživačko-razvojnog ciklusa, raste i mogućnost kontrole, odnosno mjerljivosti rezultata rada, preciznije su vremenske obaveze i s1. 4. to research activity becomes more phases of research and development cycles, and increasing the ability to control and measurability of results, precisely the time commitments. Međufunkcionalna integracija istraživanja i razvoja, kao i proizvodnje i marketinga, izuzetno je značajna, a njome se ostvaruje (Hill and Jones, 2000): (1) razvoj projekta-proizvoda čije karakteristike su usklađene sa potrebama kupaca; (2) dizajn novih proizvoda, kojim se pojednostavljuje njihova proizvodnja; (3) kontrola troškova razvoja; (4) minimalno vrijeme pojavljivanja na tržištu. Cross functional integration of research and development as well as production and marketing, it is extremely important, and it is achieved (Hill and Jones, 2000): (1) development project-products whose characteristics are consistent with the needs of customers; (2) design new products to simplify their production; (3) control development costs; (4) minimum time appearing on the market. ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA I MARKETING RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTION AND MARKETING Istraživačko-razvojni napori, kao i sami tehničko-tehnološki rezultati tih napora, bez njihove tržišne verifikacije, nisu garancija uspješnosti inovativne aktivnosti u preduzeću. Elementaran izraz uspješnosti ove funkcije Research and development efforts, as well as your own technical and technological results of these efforts, no verification of their market are not a guarantee of success of innovative activities in the company. Elemental 28 O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL... jeste tržišna provjera njenih rezultata - novih ili poboljšanih postojećih proizvoda, odnosno tehnoloških rješenja. Činjenica je da kompanije pokreće profit, odnosno postizanje profitabilnosti, ali je kompanijama potreban imidž da bi bile uspješne. U tom smislu vještina marketinga podrazumijeva „zavođenje“ ljudi i uticaj na njih sa ciljem da kupe proizvode ili usluge. Sama tehnologija nije više garant uspjeha i pobjede (Olins, 2008). Nijedan laboratorijski posao ne može biti opravdan bez visoke vjerovatnoće za komercijalni uspjeh. Istraživačko-razvojni napori imaju svog smisla samo ako rezultate tih napora tržište prihvata. Otuda već u samoj fazi razmišljanja o novim tehnološkim rješenjima ili proizvodima, odnosno poboljšanjima postojećih, treba polaziti od zahtjeva i potreba onih kojima je to i namijenjeno. Povezanost istraživačko-razvojne aktivnosti i marketinga je upravo u toj funkciji. term performance of this function is to market its test results - new or improved existing products and technology solutions. The fact is that the company runs a profit or achieve profitability, but companies need the image in order to be successful. In this sense, marketing skills means “seduction” of people and influence them in order to purchase products or services. The technology itself is no longer a guarantee of success and victory (Olins, 2008). No laboratory work can not be justified without a high probability of commercial success. Research and development efforts have their sense only if the results of this effort, the market acceptance. Thus already in the stage of thinking about new technological solutions or products, or improve existing, should be based on the demands and needs those for whom it is intended. Connection between research and development activities and marketing is just such a function. Marketing obuhvata: planiranje, koordinaciju i kontrolu svih aktivnosti preduzeća, usmjerenih na aktuelno i potencijalno tržište, u cilju dugoročnog zadovoljavanja potreba i zahtjeva kupaca. Razvoj i uvođenje novih konvergentnih tehnologija treba da potakne razvoj novog marketinga koji može efikasno povezati ponudu i tražnju visokokvalitetnih usluga (Hatunić, 2007). Istraživačko-razvojna aktivnost, posmatrana u tom kontekstu, nema neke posebne, izdvojene ciljeve, te kao takva mora biti integrisana sa ostalim funkcijama u preduzeću. U suprotnom, ona će se razvijati daleko od uticaja tržišta i postavljati sebi sopstvene ciljeve u smjeru “idealne tehnologije”. Otuda, već u samoj fazi formiranja strategije istraživanja i razvoja, treba uvažavati ovu činjenicu (Šehić, 1990). Neposredna i čvrsta povezanost između marketinga i istraživačko-razvojne funkcije treba da omogući frekventnu međusobnu komunikaciju. Marketing includes, as is well known, planning, coordination and control of all activities of the company, focused on the current and potential market, in order to meet longterm needs and requirements of customers. The development and introduction of new convergent technologies should encourage the development of new marketing that can efficiently connect supply and demand of high-quality services (Hatunic, 2007). Research and development activities, considered in this context, there is a special, separate goals, and as such must be integrated with other functions in the company. Otherwise, it will evolve away from the influence of the market and set themselves their own goals in the “ideal technology.” Hence, already at the stage of forming the strategy of research and development, should respect this fact (Sehic, 1990). Immediate and consistent relationship between marketing and R&D functions should allow frequent interpersonal communication. Koordinacija između istraživača i kadrova u marketingu potrebna je već od formiranja ideja o inovativnom rješenju, kao invenciji, pa sve do njihove komercijalizacije, kao inovacije. Nezavisno od mjesta nastan- Coordination between researchers and staff in marketing is needed, but at the time of the formation of ideas about innovative solutions, such invention, to the commercialization of such innovations. Ir29 O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA ka inovativne ideje, sve one treba da prođu provjeru njihove tržišne vrijednosti. Tek pozitivno vrednovane ideje, koje će putem inovacionih rješenja doživjeti prvo komercijalni, a potom i ekonomski uspjeh, stavljaju se u inovacioni proces. Potreba provjere tržišne valjanosti inovacije je isto tako potrebna i u kasnijim fazama inovacionog ciklusa. Poznata opasnost da istraživači u preduzeću, u uslovima nužne samostalnosti u svom radu, istraživačke ciljeve stave iznad i izvan ciljeva preduzeća, u postignutoj tijesnoj povezanosti istraživačko-razvojne funkcije i marketinga, se smanjuje. Ovo se postiže direktnom horizontalnom, međufunkcijskom povezanošću, putem formiranja zajedničkih istraživačkih timova, prostornim razmještanjem, kojim se omogućava neposredna veza, zatim neformalnim kontaktima, slobodnim razgovorima, druženjima i sl. respective of the place of origin of innovative ideas, they all have to go through the verification of their market value. Only positively evaluated ideas that will through innovation solutions to experience first commercial, then economic success, are placed in innovation process. Checking the validity of market needs innovation is also needed in the later stages of the innovation cycle. Known risk, the researchers in the company, in terms of the necessary autonomy in their work, research goals put above and beyond the goals of the company, achieved in close association research and development and marketing functions, is reduced. This is achieved by direct horizontal, cross-functional connections, through the formation of joint research teams, deploying space, which allows direct connection, then informal contacts, free to socialize. ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA I PROIZVODNJA RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS Proizvodnja je glavni korisnik istraživačkih i razvojnih dostignuća. Naučna istraživanja mogu se sprovoditi i u proizvodnji, odnosno institutima ili nekim drugim organizacionim oblicima, koji su u sistemu proizvodnih kompanija (Žugaj, Šehanović i Cingula, 2004). Inovacioni ciklus, pored istraživanja i razvoja, kao i marketinga, obuhvata još i proizvodnju, kao tipične i nužne dijelove inovacionog procesa. Marketing i proizvodnja jesu neraskidive karike inovacionog ciklusa, koje svojom organizovanošću i kapacitetom uspostavljaju kvalitet i propusnu moć cjelokupne inovacione djelatnosti. To praktično znači da, recimo, neefikasnost proizvodnog sektora najneposrednije uslovljava u istoj mjeri i neefikasnost istraživačko razvojne aktivnosti, odnosno inovativne djelatnosti u cjelini. Ako novi proizvod nije dizajniran u skladu sa proizvodnim mogućnostima sa kojima raspolaže kompanija, ponekad se sama dogradnja tehnoloških mogućnosti može pokazati tako teškom da je potrebno proizvod redizajnirati. Shodno iznesenom, sasvim je jasna potreba Manufacturing is the main beneficiary of research and development achievements. Scientific research can be carried out in the production or institutes or other organizational forms, which are in the system of production companies (Zugaj, Sehanović and Cingula, 2004). Innovation cycle, in addition to research and development, and marketing and includes more production as typical and necessary parts of the innovation process. Marketing and production are links innovation chain, to the organization and that its capacity significantly determine the quality and throughput of the overall innovation activity. This means that, say, the inefficiency of the manufacturing sector most directly conditioned to the same extent and inefficiency of R&D activities and innovative activities as a whole. If a new product is designed in accordance with the manufacturing capabilities possessed by the company, sometimes alone upgrade technological capabilities may prove so difficult that it is necessary to redesign the product. Accordingly, the undersigned, it is a clear need for connectedness research and de- 30 O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL... za povezanošću istraživačko razvojne funkcije i proizvodnje već u fazi prikupljanja ideja za inovacije, a, naročito, onih koji se odnose na tehnološke postupke. Naime, sistematično prikupljanje prijedloga za nova, ili za poboljšanja postojećih tehnoloških rješenja, podrazumijeva uključivanje svih radnika, u prvom redu onih koji, u skladu sa svojim svakodnevnim poslovima, poznaju probleme i potrebe proizvodnje. Prirodno je da se to odnosi na sve radnike u proizvodnji, a pogotovo na one najstručnije, koji imaju najviše znanja i sposobnosti za inventivni i inovacioni rad. Na ovaj način se stvaraju uslovi za široku inventivnu aktivnost (Šehić, 1990). Sve prikupljene ideje, nezavisno odakle dolaze, treba vrednovati, pored tržišnog, i sa aspekta tehničko-tehnološke izvodljivosti, raspoloživosti tehničkim i kadrovskim potencijalom, zatim sa stanovišta troškova i vremena njihove transformacije u inovaciju. Samo ideje koje su zadovoljile oba stanovišta - tržišni i tehnološki, mogu se naći u inovacionom procesu. Otuda u cjelokupnom inovacionom lancu, počevši od njegovih prvih faza–prikupljanja i ocjene ideja, preko prevođenja invencije u inovaciju, pa sve do kasnije redovne proizvodnje, potrebno je da bude uključen jedan dio istraživačkog tima. Isprekidanost inovacionog lanca, česti prekidi u toku probnih ispitivanja, kao i zastoji u toku redovne proizvodnje, su najčešće posljedica nepostojanja barem jednog dijela istraživačkog tima u svim fazama inovacione djelatnosti. Bez obzira koju formu organizacione strukture kompanija ima, nagomilavanje različitih problema, nastojanje da se udovolji zahtjevima tržišta i stalne promjene zahtjeva okruženja, nameću potrebu za brzom, kompetentnom reakcijom organizacije, na bazi interdisciplinarnih znanja, a to se može obezbjediti samo timskim radom (Suša, 2009). Zadatak ovog stalnog dijela istraživačkog tima jeste da prati složen proces transformacije invencije u inovaciju i da usputno otklanja probleme. Pri svemu ovome, pored ostalog, bitno je istraživačko iskustvo, koje naročito dolazi do izražaja u kasnijim fazama inovacionog procesa. Istraživački timovi u proizvodnom velopment functions of production, but in the process of collecting ideas for innovation, especially those relating to technological processes. Specifically, the systematic collection of proposals for new or improving existing technology solutions, implies the inclusion of all workers, primarily those who, according to their daily needs, know the problems and needs of production. Naturally, this applies to all workers in manufacturing, especially to those most competent, who have the most knowledge and ability for innovation and inventive work. In this way, creating conditions for a broad inventive activity (Sehic, 1990). All collected ideas, regardless where they come from, should be evaluated, in addition to the market, and in terms of technical and technological feasibility, availability of technical and human potential, then in terms of cost and time of their transformation into innovation. Only ideas that meet both point - the market and technology, can be found in the innovation process. Hence the overall and innovation chain, starting from its first phase-collection and evaluation of ideas, through translating invention into innovation, to the later regular production, it is necessary to be on one part of the research team. Abruptness innovation chain, frequent interruptions during the test trials, as well as delays in the course of regular production, are usually the result of the absence of at least one part of the research team through all stages of the innovation activities. No matter what form the organizational structure of the organization has, accumulation of different problems, the effort to meet market demands and constant changes in demand environment, impose the need for fast, competent response organizations, on the basis of interdisciplinary knowledge, and this can be provided only through teamwork (Susa, 2009). The task of the permanent part of the research team is to follow the complex process of transforming inventions into innovation and casually eliminates problems. In all of this, among other things, it is important to research and experience, which is particularly evident in the later stages of the innovation process. Research teams in the manufacturing 31 O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA sektoru pokazali su najviši stepen efikasnosti kada su bili sastavljeni od kadrova sa određenim istraživačkim iskustvom. Na kraju, kada je riječ o inovativnosti, kao trećem bloku u izgradnji konkurentske prednosti preduzeća, može se konstatovati da se razlikuju uloge pojedinih funkcija u postizanju uspješne inovativne aktivnosti. sector showed the highest degree of efficiency when they were composed of personnel with specific research experience. Finally, when it comes to innovation, as the third block in the construction of competitive advantage, it can be concluded that the different roles of different functions to achieve successful innovative activities. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Sve veća borba na tržištu i ukrupnjavanje kapitala u savremenom poslovanju nameću svakoj kompaniji imperativ pravilnog postavljanja razvojne politike. Kreiranje razvojne politike kompanije jeste vrlo važna i složena aktivnost, te cilj kojem kompanije poklanjaju punu pažnju, Savremeno orijentisana kompanija mora pratiti sve promjene na tržištu, a najviše u pogledu razvoja tehnoloških dostignuća da bi se mogla prilagođavati tržišnim i tehnološkim zahtjevima i novinama. Funkcija istraživanja i razvoja u kompaniji je jezgro i „mozak“ kompanije. Izlazni rezultati u okviru ove funkcije moraju biti osnova za sagledavanje i analizu ciljeva kompanije, usavršavanje tehnologije kompanije i predstavljanje novih rješenja i programa, a u skladu sa savremenim dostignućima. Od vrste, veličine i moći kompanije zavisi i organizacija navedene funkcije, te je u okviru nje potrebno zaposliti najkvalitetniju radnu snagu i najsavremeniju opremu i tehnologiju jer to mora biti najkreativniji dio kompanije. Većina kompanija u okviru ove funkcije organizuje razvojno-istraživačke poslove vezane za istraživanje tržišta, marketing, nove organizacione metode. Uspješnost, efikasnost i inovativnost istraživačko-razvojne funkcije kompanije garant je dugoročnosti, opstanka i odgovarajuće tržišne pozicije kompanije. Rezultat ove funkcije jesu tehnološke inovacije koje itekako mogu uticati na izgradnju konkurentnosti kompanije, međutim upravljanje inovativnom aktivnošću je vrlo kompleksno. I izgradnja efikasne inovativnosti mora da se temelji na bazičnim i aplikativnim istraživanjima, adekvatnim procesima za selekciju Increasing struggle to market and enlargement of capital in modern business impose any company imperative proper positioning of the development policy. Creating a development policy of the company is very important and complex task, and the goal to which companies devote full attention, Contemporary oriented company must keep track of all the changes in the market, especially in terms of the development of technological advances that could adapt to the market and technological requirements and innovations. Research and development functions of the company’s core and the “brain” of the company. Outputs within this function must be the basis for understanding and analyzing the company’s goals, development of technology companies and introduce new solutions and programs, in line with modern developments. The type, size and power companies and organizations depend on these functions, and within it is necessary to employ the highest quality workforce and state of the art equipment and technology, because it has to be the most creative part of the company. Most companies within this function organized development - research activities related to market research, marketing, new organizational methods. The effectiveness, efficiency and innovation research - development tool companies guarantee a long life, survival and proper market position the company. The result of this function are technological innovations that can certainly affect the competitiveness of the construction company, but the management of innovative activity is very complex. I build an effective innovation must be based on basic and applied research, adequate processes 32 O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL... projekata, uspostavljanje visoke integracije među različitim funkcijama u kompaniji. Od izuzetnog značaja je usredsrijediti se na vezu istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti sa drugim funkcijama u kompaniji, a, prije svega, sa marketingom i proizvodnjom koje predstavljaju nedjeljive karike inovacionog lanca. Dobrom organizacijom i kapacitetom navedena simbioza bitno određuju kvalitet i moć cjelokupne inovativne aktivnosti, te, kao takva, daje kompaniji konkurentsku prednost na način koji je različit od načina konkurenata. for the selection of projects, the establishment of high integration between different functions in the company. Of great importance is usredsrijediti to link research and development activities with other functions in the company, primarily with marketing and manufacturing, which are indivisible links innovation chain. Good organization and capacity listed symbiosis significantly determine the quality and power of all innovative activities, and as such gives the company a competitive advantage in a way that is different from its competitors. LITERATURA REFERENCES Cvetković, D. (2011). Dizajn i razvoj proizvoda. Beograd: Univerzitet Singidunum, Departman za inženjerski menadžment. Cvetković, D. (2011). Design and development of product. 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Organisation: Varaždin: Tiva - Tiskara. 34 TEORIJSKA EKONOMIJA - THEORETICAL ECONOMICS GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION Prof. dr Miladin Jovičić*; Dejan Gračanin, dipl. ek. *Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina Pregledni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301002J, UDK 316.32:338.124.4 Review paper REZIME SUMMARY Cilj autora ovog rada jeste da dâ kritički pogled na fenomen globalizacije, tačnije, osvrt na njegove granice i prepreke koje nije uspio zaobići ni savladati. Obično se on koristi kao uzrok svih pojava današnjice kako ekonomskih tako i brojnih drugih, pa će utoliko ovaj sadržaj biti interesantniji, jer ćemo vidjeti i jednu drugu stranu u kojoj ovaj fenomen ne vodi glavnu riječ, a što na direktan način utiče na polje ekonomije. The objective of the author of this paper is to provide a critical overview on globalization as a phenomenon, or to be more precise, to review its limits and obstacles that it has not achieved to bypass nor overcome. Usually, it is referred as the cause for all the modern day phenomena, of economic kind as well as of many other kinds, which will inasmuch make this paper more interesting because we are going to see also the other side in which this phenomenon is not taking the main word and which directly influences the field of economy. Ključne riječi: globalizacija, fenomen, proces, faktori. Keywords: globalization, phenomenon, process, factors. UVOD INTRODUCTION Gotovo da ne postoji oblast ljudskog djelovanja u kojoj se kao osnovni uzrok promjena ne navodi fenomen globalizacije. Utoliko je definisanje ovog procesa potrebnije i neophodnije, jer ćemo upravo kroz taj dio, i kroz dio koji se odnosi na analizu faktora koji stoje kao prepreke na putu ovog procesa vidjeti njegovu stvarnu snagu, jačinu i moć. Da li globalizacija ruši sve pred sobom? Koje su to granice ovog procesa, i da li on uopšte ima granice? Da li je moguće oko sedam milijardi stanovnika na sedam kontinenata staviti u jedan obrazac ponašanja i djelovanja? Pitanja su brojna, odgovori različiti, često potpuno suprotni. Zato je bavljenje ovim pitanjem vrlo izazovno i podrazumijeva multidisciplinarnost, tačnije, poznavanje There is almost no sphere of human activity in which the phenomenon of globalization is not mentioned as a main cause of change. Making definition of this process is inasmuch more needed and necessary because we will exactly through this part and the one related to the analysis of the factors that stand as obstacles on the way of this process, realize its true strength, might and power. Is globalization demolishing everything ahead of itself? Where are the boundaries of this process and does it have them at all? Is it possible to fit seven billion inhabitants from seven continents into a single pattern of behaving and operating? The questions are numerous, the answers different, often completely opposite. Therefore, dealing with this issue is very challenging and requires multidisciplinary approach, more precisely, it requires 35 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE brojnih oblasti gdje će se sinhronizovanjem i konvergacijom saznanja doći do adekvatnih odgovora. the knowledge of numerous fields in which we will through synchronization and convergence of knowledge reach adequate answers. Izlaganje se sastoji iz dva dijela. Prvi dio govori o razvoju ovog fenomena kroz istoriju i njegovom evolutivnom putu, nakon čega se osvrćemo na definiciju i ključne oblasti koje su njime zahvaćene. U okviru teorijskih koncepata vidjećemo da postoje potpuno oprečna mišljenja o ovoj temi. Drugi dio je namijenjen kritičkom osvrtu, tačnije, faktorima koji govore u prilog činjenici da i ovaj proces ima svoje granice koje su često zanemarene i stavljene u drugi plan. U vidu tri stuba na kojima počiva ljudska stvarnost, i to prirodnom, društvenom i kulturnom predstavljene su najveće prepreke koje ovaj proces nije uspio prevazići. The presentation consists of two parts. The first part is about the historical development of this phenomenon and its evolutionary way after which we turn to the definition and key fields comprehended by it. We will see that the conflicting opinions related to this subject coexist within theoretical concepts. The second part is designed for the critical review, for the factors that speak for the fact that even this process has its limitations which are very often ignored and given less attention. The greatest obstacles that this process has not managed to overcome are presented as three pillars that the human reality rests on - natural, social and cultural. ŠTA JE TO GLOBALIZACIJA? WHAT IS GLOBALISATION? Istorija fenomena globalizacije History of phenomenon of globalization Globalizacija kao fenomen koji je dominantan i koji je nastao u decenijama koje su za nama ima svoj evolutivni i razvojni put. Činjenica da sve ima svoju istoriju, nameće potrebu da prije definisanja samog fenomena globalizacije kažemo nešto više i o procesu njegovog nastanka. Završetkom Drugog svjetskog rata stvara se bipolarni model svjetske privrede u kojem sa jedne strane imamo kapitalistički model i liberalno tržište, a sa druge strane komunistički (socijalistički) model sa centralno-planskom privredom. U toj utakmici kapitalistički sistem pobjeđuje, što je potvrđeno raspadom centralno-planskih privreda sa kraja osamdesetih i početka devedesetih godina. Upravo u tim godinama dolazi do stvaranja formalno jedinstvenih (unificiranih) pravila koja označavaju početak procesa globalizacije. Dakle, on počiva na liberalnom tržištu, slobodi kretanja ljudi, roba, usluga i kapitala, privatnoj svojini i demokratskim sistemima. Globalization as a dominant phenomenon which was created in decades that are behind us has its own evolutionary and developmental path. The fact that everything has its own history, imposes on us a need that before we define the phenomenon of globalization itself, we say something about the process of its creation. With the end of the World War ll the bipolar model of world economy occurs within which on one side we have capitalist model and liberal market and on the other there is a communist (socialist) model with centrally planned economy. The capitalist system has won in this game which is confirmed with the collapse of the centrally planned economies in the late eighties and early nineties. Exactly in those years, the formally unique (unified) rules were created which altogether mark the beginning of the process of globalization. Therefore, it rests on the liberal market, freedom of movement of people, goods, services and capital, private ownership and democratic systems. 36 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION Definicija globalizacije Definition of globalization Jedan od kreatora termina globalizacije jeste američki ekonomista i profesor sa Harvarda Teodor Levit. Veoma je značajan njegov rad na popularizaciji ovog termina, a prvu njegovu definiciju dao je u članku objavljenom 1983. godine o temi „Globalizacija tržišta“. Levit (1983) globalizaciju definiše kao posljedicu transferbilnosti tehnologije, a naročito informacija, tj. njihove proletarizacije. Bitno je istaći da danas ne postoji jedinstvena definicija ovog fenomena. Mnoge od tih definicija razlikuju se u formalnom smislu, ali sadržaj i suština ipak ostaju približni. Ovaj set promjena odnosi se na tri osnovne kategorije, ekonomsku, političku i kulturnu. One of the creators of the term globalization is American economist and Harvard professor Theodore Levitt. His work on popularization of this term is of great importance while its first definition he gave in the article published in 1983 about the subject matter entitled “Globalization of Markets”. Levitt (1983). defines globalization as the consequence of the transferability of technology, especially of information and their proletarianization. It is important to emphasize that there is not a unique definition of this phenomenon. Many of those definitions formally differ but the content and the essence remain approximate. This set of changes refers to three main categories: economic, political and cultural. Ekonomska globalizacija ogleda se u stvaranju jedinstvenog svjetskog tržišta. Žargonski rečeno, stvaranje globalnog sela u kojem je sve dostupno svima, i to po jednakim pravilima, najbolje opisuje činjeničnu situaciju. Protivnici ovog procesa, sa druge strane, tvrde da su ta pravila nametnuta od moćnih multinacionalnih kompanija kako bi postojećim kapitalom onemogućile rađanje konkurenata a, samim tim, i podjelu tržišta. Brojne međunarodne ekonomske, a prije svega finansijske organizacije pospješile su ovaj proces. Navodimo neke od njih: (1) Svjetska trgovinska organizacija - WTO, (2) Organizacija za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj - OECD, (3) Međunarodni monetarni fond - MMF (IMF), (4) Međunarodna banka za obnovu i razvoj - IBDR, (5) Međunarodno udruženje za razvoj - IDA, (6) Međunarodna finansijska korporacija - IFC, (7) Multilateralna agencija za garantovanje investicija - MIGA, (8) Regionalne banke za razvoj Interamerička banka - IADB, Afrička banka - AfDB i Azijska banka - AsDB, (9) Banka za međunarodne obračune - BIS, (10) Međunarodna banka za ekonomsku saradnju - MBES, (11) Međunarodna investiciona banka MIB, (12) Afrička finansijska zajednica - CFA, (13) Evropska investiciona banka EIB, (14) Evropska banka za obnovu i razvoj - EBRD. The economic globalization is reflected in the creation of a single world market. Simply speaking, the creation of the global village in which everything is accessible by the same rules to everybody describes the factual situation in the best way. On the other hand, the opponents to this process claim that those rules were imposed by the powerful multinational companies so that they could prevent the occurrence of the competition and hence, the division of the market. Numerous international economic and above all financial organizations improved this process. Here is the list of some of them: (1) World Trade Organization - WTO, (2) Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development - OECD, (3) International Monetary Fund - IMF, (4) International Bank for Reconstruction and Developmennt - IBRD, (5) International Development Association - IDA, (6) International Financial Corporation - IFC, (7) Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MIGA, (8) Regional development banks - Inter - American Development Bank - IADB, African Development Bank - AfDB and Asian Development Bank - AsDB, (9) Bank for International Settlements - BIS, (10) International Bank for Economic Cooperation - MBES, (11) International Investment Bank - MIB, (12) Communaute financiere africane - CFA, (13) Europen Investment Bank - EIB, (14) Europen Bank for Reconstruction and Development - EBRD. 37 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE Politička globalizacija je usko povezana sa ekonomskom globalizacijom. Prisutan je trend sve manjih mogućnosti država da samostalno odlučuju o bitnim pitanjima. Brojne nadnacionalne (naddržavne) organizacije govore u prilog tome. Najbolje to možemo vidjeti na vlastitom primjeru. Evropska unija kao najveća svjetska integracija kreira pravila koja se moraju poštovati. Sve države, a naročito one manje i potpuno zavisne, su faktički nemoćne da o bilo čemu odlučuju samostalno i u okviru svojih granica. I političku globalizaciju su pospješile brojne organizacije nadnacionalnog karaktera, i to: (1) Organizacija ujedinjenih nacija - OUN, (2) Sjeverno-atlanski sporazumni savez NATO pakt (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), (3) brojne regionalne organizacije od kojih je najvažnija Evropska unija, kao i mnoge druge. The political globalization is tightly connected to the economic globalization. There is a trend of reduced possibilities for states to decide on important matters on their own. Numeroustransnational organizations speak in favor to this. It is best to showcase it through our own example. The European Union as the largest world integration creates rules that have to be obeyed. All countries, especially those smaller and absolutely dependent ones, are factually powerless to decide independently on anything and within their borders. Also, the political globalization was improved by the number of transnational organizations, such as: (1) United Nations - UN, (2) North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - NATO, (3) Numerous regional organizations among which the European Union is the most important one, as well as many others. Kulturna globalizacija ogleda se u tome što se usljed kreiranja jedinstvenih pravila na ekonomskom i političkom planu pretpostavlja i ujednačavanje kulturnih obrazaca. Međutim, ovo je vrlo osjetljivo pitanje koje ćemo posebno obraditi u dijelu koji se odnosi na fakotre koji stoje na putu procesa globalizacije. Mnogi ovaj proces smatraju pokušajem amerikanizacije, evropeizacije ili, jednostavno, vesternizacije. The cultural globalization is reflected in a fact that it is assumed that parallel to the unique rules being created for the economic and political spheres, the cultural patterns would also be harmonized. However, this is a very sensitive issue that we will in particular treat in the part that refers to the factors standing on the way to globalization. It is considered by many that this process is an attempt of Americanization, Europeanization, or simply, westernization. Na kraju ovog dijela neophodno je parafrazirati da je globalizacija proces dinamičnih, tj. neopisivo brzih promjena na svim poljima ljudskog djelovanja, a tome su najviše doprinijele nove tehnologije i informacije koje struje brzinom svjetlosti tokom cijela 24 časa. At the end of this part it is necessary to paraphrase that globalization is a process of dynamic, so to speak, indescribably quick changes that take place in all fields of human actions which is mostly contributed by the new technologies and information that travel day and night with the speed of light. Teorijski koncepti procesa globalizacije Theoretical concepts of the globalization process Kada su u pitanju teorijski koncepti, uočljivo je da su oni dijametralno suprotni, preciznije, postoje hiperglobalisti, tj. zagovornici ovog procesa koji samo u njemu vide budućnost, dok, sa druge strane, postoje radikalni protivnici koji ovaj In terms of the theoretical concepts, it is obvious that they are diametrically opposite, or to be more precise, there are hyper globalists or advocates of this process that is the only process they see the future in, while on the other side, there are radical opponents who see this process 38 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION proces smatraju prevarom i obmanom nametnutom od strane moćnih krugova. Slična situacija je i u pitanju nastanka ovog fenomena, gdje sa jedne strane imamo one koji dijele mišljenje da se radi o spontanom procesu, dok sa druge imamo stavove da se radi o projektu koji je nametnut. Dakle, mišljenja su oprečna i podijeljena. Pitanja na koje je potrebno dati odgovor glasila bi: Da li je globalizacija pozitivan ili negativan fenomen, tj. da li je globalizacija spontan proces ili isplaniran projekat? Odgovoriti ne možemo sa DA ili NE! To je i kreiran, ali, velikim dijelom, i spontan proces, koji ima svoje pozitivne, ali, sa druge strane, i negativne efekte. Ono oko čega se svi slažu jesu dinamika i brzina promjena, kao i činjenica da niko nije potpuno imun na ove promjene. Digitalizacija i dostupnost informacija, društvene mreže i praktično nepostojanje neupućenih jesu fakti koji govore u prilog tome. as a fraud and deception imposed by the powerful circles. The situation is similar when it comes to the emergence of this phenomenon because on one side we have those who hold the opinion that the process in question is spontaneous, while on the other side we face the attitudes that it is an imposed project. Therefore, the opinions are contradicted and divided. The questions that need to be answered would be: Is globalization positive or negative phenomenon, that is, whether the globalization is a spontaneous or planned project. We cannot provide answers simply by saying YES or NO! It is a designed process but it is also largely spontaneous which means that it has its positive, but also on the other side, its negative effects. The things that everybody agrees on are the dynamics and the speed of changes as well as the fact that nobody is completely immune to these changes. Digitalization and the accessibility of information, social networks and virtually nonexistence of the uninformed are the facts that speak in favor of this assertion. FAKTORI KOJI OGRANIČAVAJU PROCES GLOBALIZACIJE FACTORS LIMITING THE PROCESS OF GLOBALIZATION Prvim dijelom izlaganja željeli smo da u kratkim crtama opišemo proces globalizacije kroz istoriju, da dotaknemo oblasti u kojima su promjene bile najdominantnije i najupečatljivije, kao i da prikažemo različite stavove u vezi sa ovim promjenama. To je bio dio sadržaja koji je zastupljen u brojnim radovima, međutim, drugi dio, koji će biti predstavljen u nastavku, crpi ključno pitanje koje se odnosi na temu ovog rada. Kritički osvrt na poglede koji sve procese stavljaju pod zvono globalizacije, i samo u njoj vide nepremostivu prepreku, jeste osnovna razlika u pristupu. Vođeni maksimom da svi ovozemaljski procesi imaju početak i kraj, nameće nam se kao nužan zaključak da i globalizacija ima svoje granice. Upravo u nastavku želimo ukazati na neke od tih granica, koje, bez obzira na jačinu i moć fenomena globalizacije, stoje kao tri nepomična stuba, a to su prirodni svijet, društveni život i kulturno bivstvo- In the first part of this paper, our objective was to describe briefly the process of globalization through history, to refer to the fields in which the changes were the most dominant and impressive, as well as to present different attitudes related to these changes. It is a part of the content that is presented through the topics of many writings, however, while the second part that is going to be presented from now on, derives from the key question that paper addresses. The critical review on opinions that put all the processes under the umbrella of globalization and only in it they see the unbridgeable impediment, is the main difference in approach. Guided by the maxima that all the earthly processes have their beginning and end, the conclusion that even globalization has its limits imposes itself on us. In the follow-up, we intend to designate some of these limitations which, regardless of the strength and powers of the globalization phenomenon, stand as three unmovable pillars and they are: natural world, social 39 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE vanje. Šarolikost održava ovaj svijet i čini ga interesantnim, tako da bilo koji pokušaj potpune unifikacije ima svoje granice koje su mnogo ispod tri prethodno nabrojana stuba na kojima počiva stvarnost. Ovo nisu strogo ekonomska pitanja, ali, imajući u vidu da stoje na putu kako drugih tako i ekonomskih promjena, nužno ih je poznavati i razumijevati. life and cultural existence. Diversity maintains this world and makes it interesting so that any attempt of absolute unification would have its limits much beyond the three aforementioned pillars the reality rests on. These are not strictly economic matters but having in mind that they stand in the way of economic changes as well as of others, it is essential to get to know them and apprehend them. Prirodno okruženje kao prepreka procesa globalizacije Natural environment as the obstacle to the process of globalization Pod pretpostavkom da globalizacija predstavlja stvaranje jedinstvenih obrazaca ponašanja usljed poroznosti tehnologije i brzog prenosa informacija razmotrićemo prirodu kao faktor koji stoji na putu ovom procesu. Šarolikost prirode koja utiče na oblikovanje i stvaranje ličnosti i društva u cjelini, a koju kao faktor ne možemo izbjeći jer jednostavno veliki i značajan dio vremena nismo u mogućnosti da biramo tlo pod nogama, utiče i na šarolikost populacije. Najizraženije razlike biće ako napravimo komparaciju južne i sjeverne polulopte (odnos topli morski - hladni planinski krajevi). Razlika nije samo klimatska, ali njenim djelovanjem, razlike u psihološkim tipovima pojedinaca i grupa bivaju još veće, često nepremostive. Da li je onda moguće govoriti o globalnom obrazcu, po kojem će preferencije biti iste? Da li je moguće vladati čitavom zemaljskom kuglom putem jedinstvenih pravila? Da li je moguće ugasiti razlike koje proizilaze iz prirodnog faktora? Svi dosadašnji pokušaji globalnog osvajanja bili su neuspješni, pa tako i ovaj proces ima svoje granice u tački koja je daleko ispod zone minimalnog uslova prirodne šarolikosti. Primjer Evropske unije kao najveće svjetske integracije takođe ima izražene slične elemente usljed prirodne šarolikosti. Topli romanski i hladni germanski narodi imaju nepremostive razlike koje su najvećim dijelom nastale upravo kao proizvod prirodnog faktora. Razlike usljed prirodnih uslova su velike i na nivou pojedinih država, čak i manjih oblasti i regija. Under the assumption that globalization represents the creation of the unique patterns of behavior due to the porosity of technology and the fast transfer of information, we will consider nature as the factor that stands in the way to this process. The diversity of nature that affects the modeling and creation of personality and the society as a whole, which as a factor cannot be escaped simply because most of the time we are not in a position to choose the soil under our feet, also influences the diversity of population. We will make the most obvious differences if we compare the south and north hemisphere (relation between warm coastal and cold mountain areas). The difference is not only climatic but through its acting, the differences in the psychological types of individuals and groups become even bigger and often unbridgeable. Is it then possible to talk about the global pattern based on which the preferences would be the same? Is it possible to rule the whole planet by the unique rules? Is it possible to abolish the differences that stem from the natural factor? All the former attempts of the global conquest were unsuccessful; thus even this process has its limits within the spot which is way under the zone of minimal precondition of natural diversity. Example of the European Union as the world’s largest integration has also expressed similar elements as a result of natural diversity. Warm Roman and cold German peoples have their unbridgeable differences which occurred exactly as a product of a natural factor. The differences which appeared due to the natural conditions are immense even at the level of some countries, as well as at the level of miner areas and regions. 40 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION Društveno uređenje kao prepreka procesa globalizacije Social order as an obstacle to the process of globalization Kao i u slučaju prirodnog okruženja, ni društvene norme nismo uvijek u mogućnosti birati i mijenjati. Za razliku od prirodnih zakona na čije se polje djelovanja može minimalno uticati, društvene norme je kreirao čovjek. Bez obzira na tu činjenicu, mi danas imamo razlike među grupama koje su vrlo velike. Upravo te razlike onemogućavaju potpunu standardizaciju i identifikaciju sa tipom željene jedinke. Ako uzmemo kao primjer evropski kontinent, za kojeg možemo reći da je na najvišem nivou svijesti i razvoja, uočićemo da su i tu razlike vrlo upečatljive. Primjer Engleske, gdje je gotovo sve što je vezano za društveni život potpuno drugačije od susjednih zemalja, najbolje ilustruje situaciju. Englezi voze desnom stranom, piju čaj a ne kafu, imaju drugačije TV frekvencije, uživaju u konjskim trkama itd. Uporedimo li ove i slične primjere, recimo, sa Frnacuskom, vidjećemo koliko su te razlike velike. Primjeri su životni i obični, ali upravo na njima možemo vidjeti kolika je šarolikost i među grupama koje smatramo sličnim, a kamoli ako u obzir uzememo neke potpuno suprotne krajeve svijeta. Ekonomija kao oblast koja nema granice, u ovom slučaju mora uvažiti društvene norme i prilagođavati se njima. Just like with the case of natural environment, neither we are always in a position to choose and change the social norms. Unlike the natural laws whose field of activity a man can minimally change, social norms were created by him. Regardless of that fact, nowadays we have differences among groups that are substantially big. It is exactly those differences that disable absolute standardization and identification with the type of the desired unit. If we take the European continent for example, for which we can say that it is at the highest level of consciousness and development, we will notice that the differences are even here severely striking. The example of England, in which almost everything related to the social life is absolutely different from what it is in the neighboring countries, best illustrates the situation. The English drive on the right side of road, they drink tea not coffee, have different TV frequencies, enjoy horse races, etc. If we compare these and similar examples with, let us say, France, we will see how great those differences are. The examples are simple and related to life, but exactly on them, we can see how big this diversity is even among the groups which we consider alike, not to mention how different they would be if we considered some completely opposite parts of the world. The economy, being a field with no borders, in this case has to appreciate the social norms and adjust itself to them. Kultura kao prepreka procesa globalizacije Culture as an obstacle to the process of globalization Treći faktor kojeg ćemo analizirati jeste kulturni. To što je posljednji ne znači i da je najmanje bitan, nasuprot, to je faktor koji predstavlja najveću prepreku. Brojni kulturni obrasci i velike razlike među njima daju jednu posebnu notu ili dimenziju šarolikostima o kojima smo već govorili. O primjeru kulturne različitosti najbolje svjedoči religija. Najveće religijske grupe (hrišćanstvo, islam, budizam) toliko su različite da je jedino zajedničko među njima vjera koja The third factor that we are going to analyze is the cultural one. Last but not least. On the contrary, it is the factor that represents the greatest obstacle. Numerous cultural models and great differences among them give one special note or dimension to the diversity we discussed before. Religions are the best example of the cultural diversity. The largest religious groups (Christianity, Islam, Buddhism) are so different so that the only thing they have in common is faith which is the essence of everything. However, the dif41 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE je i osnova svega. Međutim, razlike su isto tako upečatljive u okviru pojedinih grupa, pa je unutar hrišćanstva nastala podjela na pravoslavce, katolike i protestante. Pošto je tema rada ekonomska, nećemo se dalje i dublje upuštati u podjele kojih ima na stotine, samo želimo istaći koje su to prepreke, koje čak i jednom od najvećih svjetskih brendova Koka-koli1 ne omogućavaju da bude podjednako zastupljena u svim državama. Primjer većine arapskih zemalja koje zbog određenih animoziteta izbjegavaju konzumirati ovaj proizvod najbolje oslikava uticaj kulturnog faktora. Ono što je još bitnije jeste to što je u pitanju zastupanje određene ideje. Primjer vjernika koji će prije ostati bez svijesti, nego što će popiti čašu vode kako ne bi prekršio moralne norme u sebi, je nešto što globalizacija još uvijek ne uspijeva srušiti. ferences within a specific group are in the same way that much striking, so that we differentiate the Orthodox, Catholics and Protestants within Christianity. Since the subject of this paper is of economic type, we would not deal with and go further into the hundreds of subdivisions, but rather emphasize what are the obstacles that do not enable Coca Cola1, one of the greatest world brands, to be equally present in all countries. The example of most of the Arab countries which due to certain animosity avoid the consumption of this beverage depicts the influence of cultural factor in the best way. What matters even more is that representation of a certain idea is an issue. The example of a believer who would rather lose their consciousness than have a glass of water so as not to violate moral norms in themselves, is something what globalization has not managed to overthrow. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Kao što je u uvodu istaknuto, osnovni motiv za pisanje ovog rada bio je pogled na globalizaciju kao fenomen iz jednog drugog, kritičkog ugla. To da je globalizacija izmijenila uslove i poglede na svijet jeste činjenica koja je nepobitna. Posljednjih decenija mnogo toga je izmijenjeno iz korijena, i tu polemike ne postoje. Kao ekonomiste nas interesuje ekonomska dimenzija, ona koja ne bi trebalo da ima prepreke u bilo čemu. Međutim, postoji niz drugih životnih oblasti koje još uvijek ne dozvoljavaju, čak ni ekonomiji, da utiče na oblikovanje i usmjeravanje stvarnosti u željenom smjeru. Upravo je to bila vodilja tokom rada kako bi smo vidjeli da i u svojoj najvećoj ekspanziji globalizacija nije uspjela (bar ne do sada) stopiti sve granice i razlike. Ne ulazeći u to da li je ovo montiran ili spontan proces, pozitivan ili negativan, jer sigurno jeste i jedno i drugo, globalizacija ipak ima svoje granice. Prelaskom na kapitalistički model sa kraja osamdesetih i početka devedetih As it was emphasized in the Introduction, the main motif for writing this paper was the view of globalization as a phenomenon from a different, critical angle. That globalization has altered the preconditions and views of the world, is an irrefutable fact. In last decades, many things have been altered significantly and there is no dilemma about it. Being economists, we are interested in economic dimension, the one that should not have any obstacles in anything. However, there is a set of other fields of life that do not allow even the economy to influence the shaping and directing of reality into the desired course. Precisely that was the guideline of this paper which enabled us to see that even in its expansion, the globalization did not manage (at least not until now) to merge all borders and differences. Without analyzing whether this is a spontaneous or constructed process, positive or negative, because it is for sure both of it, globalization still has its limits. With the shift onto the capitalist model in late eighties and early nineties, many thought that the differences would disappear. But unlike the previous bipolar divi- 1 Coca-Cola bezalkoholno gazirano piće i istoimena multinacionalna kompanija sa sjedištem u Atlanti osnovana 1892. godine, jedan je od najpoznatijih svjetskih brendova. 1 Coca Cola, a non-alcoholic beverage and the company with headquarters in Atlanta, established in 1892, is one of the best known world brands. 42 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION godina mnogi su smatrali da će nestati razlike, međutim, za razliku od prijašnjeg bipolarnog danas imamo sistem u kojem se nadmeće više polova. Iako još uvijek dominantne SAD (Sjedinjene Američke Države) imaju velike i jake rivale u zemljama dalekog istoka, Japanu, sve jačoj Kini i Indiji, uloga Rusije u poslednjim godinama takođe je značajna, Evropska unija, iako prolazi kroz krizne etape, nikada veća i jača, Brazil kao predvodnik Južne Amerike takođe nije zanemarljiv, iako još daleko ispod pozicije koja ugrožava poredak. Dakle, postavlja se pitanje da li je globalizacija ujedinila i anulirala šarolikosti, ili su one danas još veće i izraženije nego ranih osamdesetih godina? Suština rada jeste da razlike u vidu tri faktora koja smo izložili još uvijek stoje kao tri stuba, koja će i u budućem vremenu biti glavna prepreka svima onima koji žele da prave jedinstvene obrasce, pa makar to pokušavali učiniti i ekonomskim, a ne vojnim putem. Naime, sadržaj rada, iako obuhvata šire polje djelovanja, konačno ima za cilj osvrt na ekonomiju. Naravno, da bi čitalac u potpunosti shvatio suštinu, potrebno je razumijevanje i nekih drugih oblasti, pa je upravo iz tog razloga istaknuto da je potrebna multidisciplinarnost kako bi cjelokupan mozaik bio bistriji i jasniji. Korišteni primjeri su odraz banalnih situacija, s ciljem da čitaocu približe činjenično stanje i to upravo djelovanjem ekonomije. sion, today we have system in which many poles compete with each other. Although still very dominant, the USA (United States of America) has big and powerful rivals in the Far East countries such as Japan, stronger and stronger China and India, the role of Russia was likewise significant in past years, the European Union, even though it goes through critical periods, has never been bigger and stronger, Brazil, being the leader of the South America is not negligible as well, though still far beyond the position that would jeopardize the system. Therefore, the question arises whether globalization has united and annulled diversities or they are even bigger and more significant today that they were in the early eighties. The point of this paper is to say that the differences existing in the shape of three factors which we explained here stand as three pillars that would in the future time be main obstacle to all those who would wish to create unique models even if they would try to achieve it with economic not military means. Namely, even though it comprehends much wider field of work, the content of this paper has the objective to make a review on economy. Certainly, in order to make a reader absolutely comprehend the essence of this paper, the comprehension of some other areas as well is needed so due to this argument, it is emphasized that the multidisciplinary approach is requested so as to make the overall mosaic clearer and more comprehensive. The examples used here are the reflection of banal situations; their purpose is to explain the factual situation to the reader through economy at work. LITERATURA LITERATURE Bauman, Z. (1998). Globalization: The human Consequences. New York: Columbia University Press. Bauman, Z. (1998). Globalization: The human Consequences. New York: Columbia University Press. Beck, U. (2000). What is Globalization?. Cambridge: Polity Press. Beck, U. (2000). What is Globalization?. Cambridge: Polity Press. Jovanović Gavrilović, P. (2004). Međunarodno poslovno finansiranje (deseto izdanje). Beograd: Čugura print. Jovanović Gavrilović, P. (2004). International business finance (tenth edition). Beograd: Čugura print. 43 M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE Kancir, R. (2013). Međunarodni marketing (prvo izdanje). Beograd: Štamparija nauka i društvo. Kancir, R. (2013). International Marketing (first edition). Beograd: Štamparija nauka i društvo. Levitt, T. (1983, May-June). The Globalization of Markets. Harvard Business Review, No. 3., 92-102. Levitt, T. (1983, May-June). The Globalization of Markets. Harvard Business Review, No. 3., 92-102. Pelević, B. (2001). Uvod u međunarodnu ekonomiju. Beograd: Program štampa. Pelević, B. (2001). Introduction to International Economics. Beograd: Program štampa. Šušnjić, Đ. (2007). Metodologija (četvrto izdanje). Beograd: Čigoja štampa. Šušnjić, Đ. (2007). Methodology (fourth edition). Beograd: Čigoja štampa. 44 POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY Doc. dr Vitomir Starčević* *Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet Poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina Pregledni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301005S, UDK 336.71: [005.52:65.012.123 Review paper REZIME SUMMARY Kreditni bonitet preduzeća u fokusu je stalnog interesovanja poverilaca. Posedovanjem kreditnog boniteta preduzeće stiče poverenje poverilaca da će svoje obaveze platiti o roku. Takođe, preduzeće poseduje sigurnost i likvidnost i u stanju je da se štiti od prezaduženosti. Preduzeće bez minimuma kreditnog boniteta ne poseduje te osobenosti, a permanentno je izloženo visokim rizicima u poslovanju. Naime, takvim preduzećima u principu je ugrožen opstanak jer teško se mogu održati na tržištu. Svrha istraživanja u ovom radu i jeste otkrivanje faktora koji izazivaju kreditni rizik i rizik ostvarenja finansijskog rezultata, koji bitno utiču na kreditni bonitet preduzeća i njegovu finansijsku stabilnost. Credit worthiness of a company is in the focus of continuing interests of creditors. Credit worthiness of a company ensures the creditors that the company shall repay its liabilities on time. In addition, it provides the company with security and liquidity, enabling it to protect itself against over-indebtedness. The company with no minimum credit worthiness does not possess such characteristics, and is constantly exposed to high business risks. In fact, the existence of such companies is generally threatened, since it is very difficult for them to sustain in the market. The purpose of this study is to detect the factors that generate credit risk and risk of achieving the financial result, which significantly affect the credit worthiness of a company and its financial stability. Ključne reči: kreditni bonitet, preduzeće, kapital, likvidnost, rizici. Keywords: credit worthiness, company, capital, liquidity, risks. UVOD INTRODUCTION Koncept tržišne privrede podrazumeva slobodno delovanje ekonomskih zakona u domenu ponude i tražnje roba, usluga, radne snage, novca i novčanih hartija od vrednosti u okviru jedne domicilne privrede. U savremenim tržišnim privredama razvijenih zemalja isti tržišni mehanizam deluje i kada je u pitanju ponuda i tražnja radne snage, novca ili hartija od vrednosti, respektujući pri tom specifične propise pojedinih zemalja. U takvim uslovima niko nema stopostotnu sigurnost da će uspeti prodati svu svoju proizvedenu The concept of market economy implies the free operation of economic laws in the domain of supply and demand of commodities, services, labour, money and securities within a national economy. In modern market economies of developed countries, the very same market mechanism is applicable when it comes to the supply and demand of labour, money or securities, thereby respecting the specific requirements of individual countries. In such circumstances, not a single company is one hundred per cent certain that it should be 45 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA količinu proizvoda, ili prodati odgovarajuću raspoloživu ‘’količinu’’ usluga, po odgovarajućim povoljnim cenama. Dakle, sam čin proizvodnje i prodaje roba i usluga nepoznatom kupcu u tržišnoj privredi uvek nosi sa sobom određeni stepen poslovnog rizika. able to sell all of its produced quantities or a particular available quantity of services, at the appropriate affordable prices. Thus, the alone act of producing and selling goods and services to an unknown buyer in a market economy always brings a certain level of business risk. Svakako, da se, kao neminovnost, postojanje rizika u poslovanju preduzeća odražava na njegov kreditni bonitet. Kada je reč o rizicima koji bitno utiču na kreditni bonitet preduzeća i njegovu finansijsku stabilnost, treba istaći sledeća dva - kreditni rizik i rizik ostvarenja finansijskog rezultata. Certainly, the existence of risk in a company’s business is reflected onto its credit worthiness. When referring to the risks that significantly affect the credit worthiness of a company and its financial stability, the following two risks should be particularly noted - credit risk and risk of achieving the financial result. KREDITNI RIZIK CREDIT RISK Kreditni rizik se definiše kao rizik neizvršenja obaveza po osnovu nastalog duga, tj. neplaćanja glavnice i kamate od strane dužnika (Đukić, Bjelica, Ristić, 2004). On izražava trajnu (usled stečaja) ili privremenu nemogućnost dužnika (usled nelikvidnosti) da u ugovorenom roku ispuni obavezu ili je u tom roku samo delimično ispuni. Credit risk is defined as the risk of default on the debt incurred, that is, payment of principal and interest by the debtor (Đukić, Bjelica, Ristić, 2004). It expresses a permanent inability (due to bankruptcy) or a temporary inability of the debtor (due to insolvency) to perform his obligation towards the bank within the contracted period or within that period only partially fulfilled. Kreditni rizik je oblik rizika koji je više od svih uslovljen neizvesnim okolnostima vezanim za poslovanje preduzeća i zbog toga ima za posledicu kontrole velikog broja parametara kako kod preduzeća (potencijalnog dužnika) tako i u banci. Mada neće posebno analizirati rizike sa kojima se susreću dužnici, banka mora imati predstavu rizika sa kojima se dužnik redovno susreće u svom poslovanju, pri tome imajući u vidu karakter njegovog poslovanja, kao i ekonomsko okruženje u kome posluje. Kreditni rizik se može odnositi kako na zajmove tako i na druge kreditne istrumente (hartije od vrednosti). Rizičnost pojedinih finansijskih operacija zavisi od razvijenosti finansijskog tržišta zemlje, broja i strukture finansijskih posrednika kao i od zakonske regulative. Credit risk is a form of risk that is, more than any other, determined by uncertain circumstances related to the company’s operations and therefore results in controlling a large number of parameters both in companies (potential debtors) and in the bank. Although the bank will not particularly analyse the risks faced by the debtors, it shall form an opinion on the risks the borrower encounters regularly in its business, while bearing in mind the nature of its business and the economic environment in which it operates. Credit risk can be related both to loans and to other credit instruments (securities). Risk level of certain financial operations depends on the level of development of the country’s financial market, the number and structure of financial intermediaries as well as the legislation. Osnovni razlog za izradu kreditne analize poslovanja zajmotražioca je merenje rizika ili neplaćanja, odnosno nevraćanja kre- The main reason for making a credit analysis of the debtor’s business is the measurement of risk or non-payment, i.e. failure 46 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY dita koji treba da mu se odobri. Mnogi faktori mogu uticati da poslovanje zajmotražioca u budućnosti bude nedovoljno rentabilno ili čak nerentabilno i da zajmotražilac ostvari gubitak. Analiza kreditnog boniteta prvenstveno ima za cilj utvrđivanje spremnosti i sposobnosti zajmotražioca da vrati kredit pod ugovorenim uslovima. Sposobnost se shvata kao objektivno svojstvo preduzeća (zajmotražioca), dok se spremnost isključivo vezuje za subjektivno svojstvo njegove uprave. Oba svojstva proizilaze iz njegovog kreditnog boniteta. to repay the loan which is to be approved to the debtor. Many factors could affect the future operations of the debtor and cause it to be insufficiently profitable or even unprofitable, thus causing loss to the debtor. Analysis of credit rating is primarily aimed at determining the willingness and ability of the debtor to repay the loan under the terms of the contract. The ability is perceived as a realistic capacity of a company (debtor), while the willingness is exclusively related to the subjective status of its administration. Both properties are derived from its credit worthiness. Koncepcija same analize kreditnog boniteta preduzeća poznata je u literaturi kao pravilo ”5C” (five Cs of credit). Suština ove analize svodi se na dobijanje što preciznijih odgovora na pitanja: (1) Da li zajmotražilac može na vreme isplaćivati dospele obaveze? (2) Da li su realna i likvidna njegova potraživanja i zalihe? (3) Da li zajmotražilac ostvaruje realnu stopu prinosa? (4) Do koje granice se može smanjivati profitna stopa zajmotražioca, a da to ne dovede u pitanje njegovu mogućnost isplate kamata, renti, glavnice kredita i slično? (5) Koliko će se smanjiti vrednost njegove aktive u trenutku bankrotstva u odnosu na bilansiranu vrednost u trenutku kada kreditori počnu snositi gubitak po osnovu datog kredita? (6) Da li je finansijsko stanje zajmotražioca stabilno, nestabilno ili nešto između? The concept of the analysis of a company’s credit worthiness is known in the literature as the rule of “5C” (five Cs of credit). The essence of this analysis is to obtain as precise answers as possible to the following questions: (1) Whether the debtor can repay its obligations in due time? (2) Are its assets and supplies realistic and liquid? (3) Whether the debtor manages to achieve a real rate of return? (4) To what extent can the debtor’s rate of profit be reduced, without affecting or questioning its ability to repay the interests, rents, principals of loans and the like? (5) To what extent will the value of its assets at the time of bankruptcy be reduced, with respect to balanced value at the time when the creditors begin to bear losses on loans given? (6) Whether the financial status of the debtor is stable, unstable, or somewhere in between? U datu kreditnu analizu nužno je uneti i vremensku komponentu, u zavisnosti od toga da li se radi o kratkoročnom, srednjoročnom ili dugoročnom kreditu. The provided credit analysis shall include a time component, depending on whether it is a short, medium or a long-term loan. Već je napomenuto da se pri donošenju odluke o davanju kredita, za potrebe kreditne analize, koriste faktori poznati pod nazivom “5C”. To su: (1) karakteristike zajmotražioca (character), (2) kapital zajmotražioca (capital), (3) kapacitet zajmotražioca (capacity), (4) uslovi obezbeđenja kapitala (collateral), (5) uslovi poslovanja zajmotražioca (conditions), a kako je prikazano na shemi 1. It has already been mentioned that in the process of making a decision on granting loans, the factors known as “5C” are used for credit analysis. Those factors are as follows: (1) characteristics of the debtor (character), (2) debtor’s equity (capital), (3) capacity of the debtor (capacity), (4) conditions of securing the equity (collateral), (5) operating conditions of the debtor (conditions), as illustrated in Scheme 1. 47 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA Kapacitet Capacity Karakter Character Kreditni rizik Credit risk Kapital Capital Zaloga Collateral Kondicija Conditions Shema 1. Faktori kreditnog rizika Scheme 1. Credit risk factors Kapacitet (capacity) izražava subjektivnu procenu proizvodne i prodajne sposobnosti zajmotražioca. To je polazni i najvažniji faktor, jer determiniše sposobnost preduzeća (koje se zadužuje) da otplati dug u ugovorenom roku. Capacity denotes subjective assessment of production and sales ability of the debtor. It is the basic and most important factor, because it determines the ability of the company (applying for a loan) to repay the debt within the agreed timeframe. On predstavlja izraz poslovne efikasnosti, a analiza ovog faktora kreditnog rizika polazi od procene likvidnosti i solventnosti dužnika u budućem periodu. It is an expression of business efficiency, and the analysis of this credit risk factor is based on the assessment of liquidity and solvency of the debtor in the future period. Karakter (character) izražava verovatnoću da će zajmotražilac u budućnosti odgovoriti preuzetoj obavezi, odnosno spremnost menadžmenta preduzeća da o roku otplaćuje dug. Sud o karakteru donosi se na osnovu njegove likvidnosti, rentabilnosti i akumulativnosti. Valjanost ovog faktora je početni uslov za preduzeće da dobije kredit od poverioca. Character (character) denotes the probability that the debtor is to repay its obligations in the future or willingness of the company’s management to settle the debt in due time. The character is evaluated on the basis of its liquidity, profitability and accumulation. The validity of this factor is the initial requirement for approving a loan to a company by the creditor. Kapital (capital) je, u stvari, neto imovina vlasnika (preduzeća) i kao garantni kapital predstavlja rezervu solventnosti, gornju granicu visine kredita i oslonac sigurnosti vraćanja kredita. On je odraz opšteg finansijskog stanja zajmotražioca koje se meri brojnim koeficijentima. Kapital predstavlja njegova raspoloživa sredstva i on je najpoželjniji uslov za odobravanje kredita. Capital (capital) denotes, in fact, the net assets of the owner (company) and as a guarantee capital it represents a solvency reserve, upper limit of the loan and the basis of security to repay the loan. It is a reflection of general financial condition of the debtor, which is measured by a number of coefficients. The capital represents its available resources, and is the most desirable condition for the loan approval. Pokriće (collateral) predstavlja sredstva obezbeđenja koja su zaloga za vraćanje kredita. To je, u stvari, raspolaganje realnom imovinom koja je uslov za dobijanje kredita i čini njegovo pokriće sve do otplate kredi- Collateral represents forms of security that are the guarantee for the loan repayment. It is a pledge of an asset to the debtor as a condition for granting the loan and is the guarantee against the debtors’ default until the loan 48 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY ta. Svrha kolaterala je pokriće slabih tačaka preduzeća sa minimumom kreditnog boniteta ili preduzeća koja nisu dovoljno poznata poveriocima. has been repaid. The purpose of collateral is covering the weak points of companies with minimal credit worthiness or companies that are not well known to the creditors. Kondicija (conditions) predstavlja opšte uslove poslovanja kao što su uticaj konjukturnih kretanja i ostalih ekonomskih trendova na privredni subjekt da odgovori svojim obavezama. Ovo se prvenstveno odnosi na makroekonomske i institucionalne promene koje bitnije utiču na poslovnu efikasnost i efikasnost preduzeća i sposobnost otplate kredita. Poznavanje tih uslova pruža izvesnost suzbijanja previsokih margina nastupanja kreditnih rizika. Ovaj faktor kreditnog rizika je uglavnom stabilan u stabilnim privredama. Međutim, u privredama u tranziciji, značaj ovog faktora je veoma izražen. Conditions denote general business terms such as the impact of conjuncture trends and other economic trends onto the economic entity to meet its obligations. This is primarily related to macroeconomic and institutional changes that significantly affect business efficiency, company’s effectiveness and loan repayment ability. Understanding such conditions provides certainty of suppressing the occurrence of excessive margins of credit risks. This factor of credit risk is generally stable in stable economies. However, in transition economies, this factor is of extreme importance. Smatra se da su najbitnija prva tri faktora, dok preostala dva samo upotpunjuju i proširuju analizu ekonomskog ambijenta zajmotražioca i ukazuju na mogućnost osiguranja datog kredita. Treba napomenuti da je ova analiza nekada obuhvatala samo prva tri “C”, a danas se proširuje sa šestim “C” koje predstavlja faktor rizika zemlje (contury). It is believed that the first three factors are the most important ones, while the other two simply complement and extend the analysis of economic environment of the debtor and indicate the insurance possibility of the given loan. It should be noted that this analysis used to include only the first three ”C”s. Today it is extended with the sixth ‘’C’’ which is a risk factor for the country. RIZIK OSTVARENJA FINANSIJSKOG REZULTATA RISK OF ACHIEVING THE FINANCIAL RESULT Poznato je da koncept tržišne privrede podrazumeva slobodno delovanje ekonomskih zakona u domenu ponude i tražnje roba u okviru jedne nacionalne privrede. U savremenim tržišnim privredama tržišni mehanizam isto deluje kada je u pitanju ponuda i tražnja radne snage, novca ili hartija od vrednosti. Naime, sam čin proizvodnje i prodaje roba i usluga nepoznatom kupcu u tržišnoj privredi uvek nosi sa sobom određeni stepen poslovnog rizika. Poslovni rizik odražava stalno prisutnu neizvesnost u pogledu očekivanog poslovnog dobitka, kao prinosa na ukupna poslovna sredstva. Okosnicu dejstva tog rizika čine fiksni troškovi poslovanja koji su neelastični na kratkoročne oscilacije u obimu aktivnosti. It is well known that the concept of market economy implies the free operation of economic laws in the domain of supply and demand of commodities within a national economy. In modern market economies, market mechanism operates in the same manner when it comes to the supply and demand of labour, money or securities. Namely, the act of producing and selling commodities and services to the unknown buyer in a market economy always involves a certain level of business risk. Business risk reflects the constant uncertainty regarding the expected trading profit, as the return on total business assets. Basic effects of such risk are fixed business expenses that are inelastic to short-term fluctuations in the scope of activities. 49 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA Finansijski rizik je determinisan neizvesnošću ostvarenja budućeg neto dobitka, kao prinosa na sopstvena poslovna sredstva. Njegovo dejstvo opredeljeno je prisustvom fiksnih rashoda finansiranja koji se ne mogu prilagoditi kratkoročnim fluktuacijama poslovnog dobitka. Financial risk is determined by the uncertainty of realization of the future net profit as return on own business assets. Its effect is allocated by the presence of fixed financing expenses that cannot be adapted to short-term fluctuations in trading profit. Ukoliko su u preduzeću zastupljeni i poslovni i finansijski rashodi, tada je ono izloženo dejstvu dvostrukog rizika, poslovnog i finansijskog, odnosno složenom (totalnom) riziku. Taj složeni rizik ispoljava se kroz neizvesnost očekivanog neto dobitka zbog mogućih fluktuacija nivoa aktivnosti, odnosno obima i prihoda od prodaje proizvoda i usluga. Ovome treba dodati i to da ovi rizici, samim tim što utiču na ostvarenje finansijskog rezultata preduzeća, imaju i direktan uticaj na njegov kreditni bonitet. If both business and financial expenses are present in the company, then such company is exposed to double risk (leverage), both business and finance risk, i.e. compound (total) risk. Such compound risk arises from the uncertainty of the expected net profit due to possible fluctuations in the activity level, or volume and revenue from sales of products and services. It should be added that such risks, by affecting the financial performance of a company, have a direct impact on its creditworthiness. Poslovni rizik (leverage) Business risk (leverage) Poslovni rizik se definiše kao neizvesnost ostvarenja poslovnog dobitka kao prinosa na uložena sredstva (kapital). Faktori od kojih ta neizvesnost može zavisiti su: (1) varijabilnost tražnje (količinski izražene), (2) varijabilnost prodajnih cena, (3) varijabilnost nabavnih cena, (4) sposobnosti prilagođavanja prodajnih cena promenama u nabavnim cenama, (5) učešće fiksnih troškova u ukupnim troškovima poslovanja. Business risk is defined as the uncertainty of achieving trading profit as a return on invested funds (capital). Such uncertainty may depend on the following factors: (1) Demand variability (expressed in quantity), (2) Variability in sales prices, (3) Variability of supply prices, (4) Ability to adapt selling prices to changes in the purchase prices, (5) Share of fixed costs in total business costs. Prvo, ako je prodaja preduzeća stabilnija uz ostale nepromenjene uslove, onda je i poslovni rizik manji. Drugo, preduzeća čiji se proizvodi na tržištu prodaju sa znatnim stepenom nestabilnosti su izloženija većem poslovnom riziku od onih preduzeća kod kojih su prodajne cene relativno stabilne. Treće, visok stepen neizvesnosti nivoa nabavnih cena takođe deluje na povećanje stepena poslovnog rizika. Četvrto, što je sposobnost prilagođavanja prodajnih cena promenama u nabavnim cenama veća, preduzeće je manje izloženo poslovnom riziku i, obrnuto, s tim što je ova sposobnost od posebne važnosti u uslovima inflacije. I najzad, peto, što je učešće fiksnih troškova koji se ne smanjuju sa opadanjem tražnje veće, u tom slučaju preduzeće je izloženo većem stepenu poslovnog rizika. Firstly, if the company’s sale is stable with other conditions unchanged, it means that the business risk is lower. Secondly, the companies whose products are sold with a significant degree of instability in the market are exposed to greater business risk than those companies whose selling prices are relatively stable. Thirdly, high level of uncertainty of purchase prices also affects the increase of the business risk level. Apart from that, the higher the ability to adapt the sales prices to changes in the purchase prices, the company is less exposed to business risk, and vice versa, provided that this ability is of great importance during inflation. Finally, the higher is the share of fixed costs which do not decrease with the decrease of demand, the higher is the level of business risk the company is exposed to. 50 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY Poslovni dobitak (poslovni rezultat) kao prinos na uložena sredstva predstavlja razliku između marže pokrića i rashoda perioda, ali bez kamata. Trading profit (business result) as a return on invested assets represents the difference between the coverage margins and costs incurred in the period, but without interest. Poslovni dobitak čine: (1) rashodi finansiranja (kamate), (2) porezi iz bruto dobitka, (3) neto dobitak. Trading profit consists of: (1) Financing costs (interest), (2) taxes from gross income, (3) net gain. Princip rentabilnosti koji proizilazi iz cilja preduzeća ukazuje da ukupno uloženi kapital treba da produkuje neki poslovni dobitak u preduzeću. Maksimiziranje prinosa na ukupno uloženi kapital, odnosno maksimiziranje poslovnog dobitka je osnovni zadatak i želja svakog ulagača kapitala. The principle of cost-effectiveness derived from the company’s objective indicates that total invested capital should result in an trading profit of the company. Maximizing the return on total invested capital, i.e. maximizing the business profit is the primary task and desire of every investor of capital. Međutim, ulaganje kapitala sa sobom nosi i određeni procenat rizika ostvarenja poslovnog dobitka, jer nastaju fiksni troškovi, bez obzira da li je uloženi kapital aktiviran ili ne i sa kojim intenzitetom će se koristiti. Ta vrsta troškova se naziva rashodima perioda, a to su amortizacija i fiksni troškovi koji su vezani za organizaciju preduzeća. To znači da su troškovi amortizacije i troškovi organizacije fiksnog karaktera, i oni se moraju pokriti kako bi se izbegle posledice stvaranja poslovnog gubitka koji bi predstavljao negativnu razliku između marže pokrića i fiksnih i pretežno fiksnih rashoda. However, capital investment implies a certain percentage of risk of achieving business profit due to incurred fixed costs, regardless of whether the equity has been activated or not, and regardless of the intensity of its use. Such type of cost is called the expenditure of the period, more specifically, amortization and fixed costs related to the organization of the company. This means that the costs of amortization and the organisation costs are of a fixed type, and they must be covered in order to avoid the consequences of creating an operating loss that would represent a negative difference between the coverage margin, fixed and largely fixed expenditures. Preduzeća koja za svoje finansiranje koriste sopstveni i pozajmljeni kapital kako bi održala prostu reprodukciju, moraju supstituisati pozajmljeni kapital sopstvenim kapitalom, a to je jedino moguće ukoliko se sopstveni kapital uvećava iz finansijskog rezultata. U toku vremena, kada preduzeće otplaćuje pozajmljeni kapital, supstitucija mora da bude najmanje u visini razlike između dospele glavnice za otplatu pozajmljenog kapitala i amortizacije. Tako bi preduzeće obezbedilo opstanak, jer prostu reprodukciju finansira iz sopstvenog kapitala. Ako bi preduzeće za finansiranje proste reprodukcije koristilo pozajmljeni kapital, to bi značilo novo zaduživanje, a, istovremeno, bi izazvalo nepoverenje kod poverilaca u rentabilnost preduzeća, zbog toga što preduzeće nije u Companies which use their own and borrowed capital to maintain simple reproduction, must substitute the borrowed assets with their own assets, which is possible only if the equity is increased from the financial result. During the period of time while the company is repaying borrowed assets, the substitution shall be at least equal to the difference between the principal due for repayment of debt and amortization. This would ensure the company’s survival, since the simple reproduction is financed by its own assets. If the company would use borrowed assets for financing simple reproduction, it would mean new indebtedness, while causing mistrust in the company’s profitability among the creditors at the same time, since the company is unable to finance simple re51 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA stanju da prostu reprodukciju finansira sopstvenim kapitalom. Cilj svakog preduzeća, osim finansiranja proste reprodukcije sopstvenim kapitalom, je i finansiranje makar jednog dela proširene reprodukcije iz sopstvenog kapitala za što je neophodan preduslov i to da prirast sopstvenog kapitala iz finansijskog rezultata mora biti veći od nivoa supstitucije pozajmljenog kapitala. Dakle, finansiranjem jednog dela proširene reprodukcije iz sopstvenog kapitala za preduzeće je značajno, jer obezbeđuje svoj rast, a time se jača i položaj preduzeća na tržištu kao i njegova konkurentnost. production utilising its own assets. The goal of every company, other than financing simple reproduction by their own capital, is financing of at least one segment of expanded reproduction utilising their own capital. A necessary prerequisite for such action is that the growth of a company’s own equity is higher than the substitution level of borrowed equity. Therefore, funding a portion of expanded reproduction from the company’s own equity is important because it ensures the company’s growth, thus reinforcing the position of the company in the market and its competitiveness. Prema tome, preduzeće ne samo da mora pokrivati rashode perioda već se mora usmeriti i na maksimiranje poslovnog dobitka. Ukoliko preduzeće ne želi da njegovi rezultati budu loši, ono mora voditi računa o tome kakav je odnos između sopstvenog i pozajmljenog kapitala, jer će od toga, u velikoj meri, zavisiti i rizik i prinos koji će preduzeće ostvariti. Therefore, the company’s task is not only to cover the expenses for the period but it must focus on maximizing trading profit. If the company requires favourable results, it must consider the ratio between its own and borrowed equity, since it greatly determines the risk and income that the company will accomplish. Međutim, izloženost preduzeća poslovnom riziku zahteva neophodnost pronalaženja adekvatnih metoda za njegovo merenje i kvantitativno izražavanje. Jedna od tih metoda je svakako i finansijski leverage koji procenjuje efekte privređivanja u odnosu na fiksne troškove poslovanja. Za preduzeće se kaže da ima visok stepen poslovnog leverage-a ako je veći deo od ukupnih troškova preduzeća fiksnog karaktera. Naime, u poslovnoj terminologiji visok stepen poslovnog leverage-a znači da relativno male promene u prodaji mogu rezultirati značajnim promenama u poslovnom dobitku, a time i u stopi prinosa na uložena sredstva. However, the company’s exposure to business risk requires the necessity of identifying appropriate methods for its measurement and quantitative definition. One of these methods is certainly the financial leverage which evaluates the economic effects in relation to fixed operating costs. A company is said to have a high level of business leverage if a larger share of total costs is of a fixed type. Namely, in business terminology, a high level of business leverage implies that a relatively small change in sales can result in significant changes in trading profit and hence in the rate of return on invested funds. Mehanizam poslovnog leverage-a da se najlakše objasniti i shvatiti u kontekstu grafikona rentabiliteta koji odražava efekat date kombinacije obima prodaje, asortimana proizvoda, prodajnih cena, varijabilnih i fiksnih troškova, na poslovni dobitak koji preduzeće ostvaruje iz svoje redovne aktivnosti. Za pretpostavljenu kombinaciju ovih faktora, grafikon rentabiliteta bi se mogao konstruisati na sledeći način (Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000): A business leverage mechanism is easily explained and understood in the context of the profitability graph that reflects the effect of a given combination of sales volume, product range, sales prices, variable and fixed costs, onto trading profit that a company makes from its regular activities. For the assumed combination of these factors, a profitability chart could be drawn as follows (Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000): 52 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY 1000 zona dobitka Troškovi i prihodi (u 000 jed.) Costs and revenues (in 000 units) 900 800 700 600 donja granica rentabilnosti zona gubitka loss zone oškovi ukupni tr enses total exp 500 400 varijabilni troškovi variable expenses cije iza e l a re om 200 od n inc d o o ti ih 100 pr ealisa r 300 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Obim realizacije (u 000 jed.) Realisation volume (in 000 units) 80 90 100 Grafikon 1. Grafikon rentabilnosti Graph 1. Profitability chart Dakle, iz grafičkog prikaza sledi da se pozitivna razlika između prihoda i troškova sve više sužava kako obim prodaje pada da bi na kraju bila negativna, što pokazuje prerastanje dobitka u poslovni gubitak, ali sve to uz pretpostavku da se dejstvo ostalih faktora učini konstantnim. Treba zapaziti da bi preduzeće prodajom 53.333 jedinice proizvoda po prodajnoj ceni od $100, varijabilnim troškovima po jedinici od $39,999625 i ukupnim fiksnim troškovima za posmatrani period od $3.200.000 ostvarilo donju granicu rentabilnosti na kojoj bi se ukupni troškovi izjednačili sa prihodima od prodaje, a, u tom slučaju, preduzeće ne bi ostvarilo poslovni dobitak, jer bi on bio jednak nuli. Tu konstataciju, potvrđuje i obračun poslovnog dobitka prezentiran u tabeli 1. Thus, the chart shows that the positive difference between revenues and costs is narrowed as the sales volume drops, ultimately ending as negative, indicating the transformation of profit into operational loss, but also with the assumption that the effect of other factors remains constant. It should be noted that simply by selling 53,333 units of a product at the sale price of $100, with variable costs per unit of $39.999625 and total fixed costs of $3.2 million for the concerned period, a company would reach a profitability threshold at which the total cost would be equated with the sales income, and, in that case, the company would not achieve trading profit, since it would be equal to zero. Such finding is confirmed by the calculation of trading profit presented in Table 1. 53 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA Tabela 1 Obračun poslovnog dobitka Table 1 Calculation of trading profit Obračun poslovnog dobitka Calculation of trading profit Redni broj No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Elementi Elements Prihodi od prodaje (53.333 x 100) Sales income (53.333 x 100) Varijabilni troškovi (53.333 x 39,999625) Variable cost (53.333 x 39,999625) Marginal benefit Marginal benefit Fiksni troškovi Fixed cost Poslovni dobitak Trading profit Iznos ($) Amount ($) % 5.333.300 100 2.133.300 40 3.200.000 60 3.200.000 60 0 Zaključujemo da što su obim i prihodi od prodaje veći, opterećenost fiksnim troškovima je manja, a poslovni dobitak je veći i obrnuto. It can be concluded that if the higher the sales volume and income are, the lower is the burden of fixed costs, with higher trading profit and vice versa. Takođe, treba konstatovati da za bilo koji obim prodaje teorijski je moguće utvrditi stepen dejstva poslovnog leverage-a pomoću faktora poslovnog leverage-a, koji se može izračunati stavljanjem u odnos marže pokrića i poslovnog dobitka. Mada, poznavanje dejstva finansijskog leverage-a je veoma bitno sa stanovišta komponovanja ciljne strukture kapitala svakog konkretnog preduzeća. Komponovanje strukture kapitala neposredno je uslovljeno intenzitetom dejstva poslovnog leverage-a kao i pozicijom donje granice rentabilnosti. Zbog toga se i smatra da je poslovni rizik najznačajniji faktor strukture kapitala, i, što god je veći poslovni rizik preduzeća, to se optimalna struktura kapitala sve više pomera ka sopstvenom kapitalu, a manje prema pozajmljenom kapitalu i obrnuto. Likewise, it should also be noted that for any sales volume it is theoretically possible to determine the magnitude of business leverage by a business leverage factor, which can be calculated by comparing coverage margin and trading profit. Although, being familiar with the effects of financial leverage is very important from the point of view of composing the target capital structure of each specific company. Composing capital structure is directly conditioned by the intensity of effects of business leverage as well as by the position of profitability threshold. That is why business risk is regarded as the most important factor of capital structure, and, as the business risk of the company is increased, the optimal capital structure is shifted towards own capital and less towards debt capital and vice versa. Finansijski rizik (leverage) Financial risk (leverage) Finansijski rizik (leverage) predstavlja rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka u preduzeću. Bruto dobitak predstavlja razliku između poslovnog dobitka i neto rashoda finansiranja (kamata) (Vunjak, 2005). Slično fiksnim troškovima poslovanja koji determinišu stepen po- Financial risk (leverage) represents a risk of achieving gross profit in the company. Gross profit is the difference between trading profit and net financing cost (interest) (Vunjak, 2005). Similar to fixed operating costs that determine the degree of business risk and 54 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY slovnog rizika i dovode do dejstva poslovnog leverage-a, fiksni finansijski rashodi prouzrokuju finansijski rizik i aktiviraju dejstvo finansijskog leverage-a. Naime, ukoliko se poslovna sredstva finansiraju delimično iz dugova, koji imaju limitirani prinos (ugovorenu cenu), tada se stopa prinosa na vlastita sredstva mora razlikovati od stope prinosa na ukupna sredstva. lead to the effects of business leverage, fixed financial costs cause the financial risk and activate the effect of financial leverage. Namely, if the business assets are financed partly from the debts which have limited income (contract price), then the rate of return on own funds must differ from the rate of return on total assets. Razlog tome je nastojanje da stopa prinosa na ukupna poslovna sredstva bude veća od cene pozajmljenih sredstava (prosečne kamatne stope), koju preduzeće treba da plati za korištenje pozajmljenih izvora finansiranja. Stopa prinosa na vlastita sredstva će zavisiti kako od rentabilnosti ukupnih poslovnih ulaganja tako i od razlike prosečne cene duga i stope prinosa na ukupna sredstva koja bi trebalo da budu pozitivna. Međutim, dešava se da ova stopa bude i negativna. Prema tome, intenzitet dejstva finansijskog leverage-a zavisi od stepena kojim su fiksni rashodi na ime kamate pokriveni iz poslovnog dobitka, tj. dobitka pre kamate i oporezivanja. The main reason is the tendency to ensure that the rate of return on total business assets is higher than the cost of borrowed funds (average interest rate), that the company should repay for the use of borrowed funds. The rate of return on own funds will depend both on the profitability of the total business investment and the difference between the average debt cost and the rate of return on total assets, which should be positive. However, such rate is occasionally negative. Thus, the intensity of financial leverage effects is dependant on the extent to which the fixed expenses are covered by trading profit, i.e. Profit prior to applying interest and taxation. Za finansijske rashode u preduzeću karakteristično je da utiču na finansijski rizik i izazivaju finansijski leverage. Dakle, smanjenjem finansijskih sredstava u preduzeću, smanjuje se finansijski leverage. Obim troškova po osnovu kamate (rashodi finansiranja) direktno zavisi od (Vunjak, 2005): (1) strukture kapitala (dominantan tuđi kapital povlači za sobom i veće troškove finansiranja); (2) obima autonomnih izvora (veći izvori povlače za sobom manje troškove finansiranja); (3) racionalnog upravljanja osnovnim i obrtnim sredstvima (smanjeno ulaganje u osnovna sredstva povlači za sobom smanjene dane vezivanja obrtnih sredstava kao i manje troškove finansiranja); (4) visine i vrste kamatnih stopa (manja kamatna stopa povlači za sobom manje troškove finansiranja) i sl. Financial expenses of a company affect the financial risk, thus causing financial leverage. Therefore, the reduction of financial assets in the company reduces financial leverage. Costs arising from the interest (cost of financing) are directly dependent on (Vunjak, 2005): (1) equity structure (dominant loan capital entails higher costs of financing); (2) scope of autonomous sources (greater sources entail a lower cost of financing); (3) rational management of primary and working assets (reduced investment in primary assets implies a reduced cash conversion cycle of working assets as well as lower financing cost); (4) level and type of interest rate (lower interest rate implies lower financing cost) etc. Rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka može se kvantitativno iskazati faktorom finansijskog leverage-a. On predstavlja količnik između poslovnog dobitka i bruto dobitka. Risk of achieving gross profit can be quantitatively expressed by a financial leverage factor. It represents the ratio between trading profit and gross profit. Svako preduzeće treba da nastoji eliminisati dejstvo finansijskog rizika na ostvarenje bruto dobitka. Ono to može ostvariti Every company should strive to eliminate the effect of financial risk onto the achievement of gross profit. It can only be ac55 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA samo pod uslovom da se finansira iz sopstvenog kapitala, kao i iz autonomnih izvora. Jer, samo angažovanjem sopstvenog kapitala u poslovnom procesu i izmirivanjem obaveza o roku dospeća, preduzeće će ostvariti takve troškove finansiranja, pri čemu će njegov bruto dobitak biti jednak poslovnom dobitku (marža pokrića minus rashodi perioda bez kamata). complished if it is financed from a company’s own equity, as well as from the autonomous sources. Only by engaging its own equity in the business process and the payment of liabilities in due time, the company shall achieve such financing costs, while its gross profit will be equal to the trading profit (coverage margin minus the expenses of the periods without the interests). Mehanizam dejstva finansijskog leverage-a prezentiran je u tabeli 2. Iz navedenog primera se vidi da u preduzeću nema finansijskog rizika, zato što je poslovni dobitak jednak bruto dobitku ( 500.000 $). To dalje znači da menadžment posmatranog preduzeća neto rashode finansiranja svodi na nulu, odnosno sa ostvarenom kamatom iz potraživanja u celini pokriva nastale kamate po obavezama za pozajmljena sredstva (aktivne kamate jednake su pasivnim kamatama). The mechanism of financial leverage effect is presented in Table 2. The following example shows the absence of a financial risk in the company, because the trading profit is equal to gross profit ($500,000). This also implies that the management of the company observed reduces net financing expenses to zero, i.e. the interest earned from the claims completely covers the interest incurred on obligations for borrowed funds (active interests are equal to passive interest). Tabela 2 Utvrđivanje finansijskog leverage-a (Vunjak, 2005) Table 2 Determining financial leverage (Vunjak, 2005) Utvrđivanje finansijskog leverage-a Determining financial leverage Redni broj No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 56 Elementi Elements Prihodi od prodaje Sales income Varijabilni rashodi Variable expenses Marža pokrića (1-2) Coverage margin (1-2) Rashodi perioda (Am+Ft) bez kamata Expenses for the periods without interests Neto rashodi finansiranja (kamate) Net financing expenses (interests) Porezi na dobit preduzeća Income taxes of a company Poslovni dobitak (3-4) Trading profit (3-4) Bruto dobitak ( 7-5) Gross profit ( 7-5) Neto dobitak (8-6) Net profit (8-6) Finansijski leverage (7:8) Financial leverage (7:8) Iznos u 000 $ Amount in 000 $ 4.000 2.500 1.500 1.000 0 200 500 500 300 1 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY U praksi je izuzetno teško izbeći neto rashode finansiranja, pa je stoga težnja svakog menadžmenta u preduzeću da ih svede na minimum i time umanji faktor finansijskog rizika (leverage-a). Povećanjem poslovnog dobitka, smanjuje se rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka, a, da bi preduzeće povećalo svoj poslovni dobitak, neophodno je povećati maržu pokrića, uz smanjenje rashoda perioda bez kamate. Dakle, preduzeće treba da, s jedne strane, utiče na povećanje prihoda od prodaje, uz smanjenje varijabilnih rashoda, a, sa druge strane, da utiče na smanjenje fiksnih troškova, relativno fiksnih troškova koji su sadržani u prodatim proizvodima, kao i samih troškova prodaje. In practice, it is extremely difficult to avoid net financing expenses. Therefore, the aspiration of a company’s management is to minimize them, thus reducing financial risk factor (leverage). Increasing business profits reduces the risk of achieving gross profit, and increase the company’s trading profit, it is necessary to increase the coverage margin, while reducing expenses of the periods with no interest. Therefore, the company should, on increase sales profit while reducing variable expenses, and, on the other hand, reduce fixed costs, relatively fixed costs that are included in products sold, as well as the sheer cost of sales. Na kraju se može zaključiti da, ukoliko je struktura sredstava preduzeća takva da dominiraju osnovna sredstva, tada su u njemu prisutni visoki fiksni rashodi (rashodi perioda bez kamate); zbog visoke amortizacije, ostvaren je nizak poslovni dobitak i izražen finansijski rizik. Finansijski rizik (leverage) je u tom slučaju moguće umanjiti samo pomeranjem strukture kapitala u korist sopstvenog, čime bi se smanjila kamata na pozajmljeni kapital, odnosno troškovi finansiranja, a, samim tim, bi se približio nivo bruto dobitka poslovnom dobitku. Finally, it can be concluded that if the structure of company’s assets is such that the fixed assets are dominant, then high fixed costs (expenses for the periods without interest) are present within such company; due to high amortization, there has been a low trading profit and severe financial risk. In such case, financial risk (leverage) can be reduced only by changing the structure of the capital in favour of a company’s own capital, which would reduce the interest on borrowed capital and the cost of funding, thus bringing the level of gross profit closer to trading profit. Složeni rizik (leverage) Compound risk (leverage) Na osnovu prethodno izloženog, da se zaključiti da poslovni i finansijski leverage imaju isti pravac delovanja. Dok poslovni leverage determiniše odnos procentualnog povećanja poslovnog dobitka prema procentualnom povećanju obima prodaje, to finansijski leverage opredeljuje odnos procentualnog povećanja neto dobitka prema procentualnom povećanju poslovnog dobitka, ‘’očigledno je da se dejstvo jednog i drugog reflektuje, u krajnjoj instanci, na stopu prinosa na sopstvena sredstva s obzirom da ona rezultira iz relativnog odnosa neto dobitka prema sopstvenom kapitalu’’(Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000). On the basis of the above, it can be concluded that the business and financial leverage have the same course of action. While business leverage determines the ratio of the percentage increase in trading profit to the percentage of increase in sales volume, the financial leverage determines the ratio between the percentage increase in net income and the percentage of increase in trading profit. ‘’It is obvious that the effect of both is ultimately reflected, onto the rate of return on own assets since such rate results from the relative ratio of net income to own equity’’ (Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000). S obzirom na to da se dejstvo ova dva leverage-a kumulira, dobija se složeni ili kom- Since the effect of these two leverages is accumulated, it results in a compound or 57 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA binovani leverage koji odražava izloženost preduzeća ukupnom ili totalnom riziku, čime se neizvesnost ostvarenja budućih neto dobitaka i prinosa na sopstvena sredstva dovodi u direktnu međuzavisnost sa mogućim variranjem obima i prihoda od prodaje. Svakako treba istaći da se dejstvo složenog leverage-a treba posmatrati i analizirati u granicama očekivanih oscilacija prema donjoj granici rentabiliteta. To, pogotovo, kod preduzeća koja imaju izraženo visoko učešće fiksnih troškova u ukupnim troškovima poslovanja i u kojima visok faktor poslovnog leverage-a obezbeđuje srazmerno velike promene poslovnog dobitka na bazi relativno malih oscilacija u obimu prodaje. combined leverage that reflects the company’s exposure to overall or total risk, which puts the uncertainty of future net profits’ realization and return on own equity in a direct correlation with possible variation of both sales volume and sales income. It should be pointed out that the effect of compound leverage should be viewed and analysed within the expected fluctuations towards the profitability threshold, particularly in companies that have a high proportion of fixed costs in the total cost of business operations and in which a high factor of business leverage provides for proportionally large changes in trading profit based on a relatively small fluctuations in the sales volume. Uslovi povećane dinamike poslovnog rezultata, stimuliraju preduzeća da daljim povećanjem obima utiču na nesrazmerno povećanje poslovnog dobitka, da pri tome ne zaziru od daljeg pozajmljivanja sredstava, usled nedostatka sopstvenih, čime intenziviraju finansijski rizik i dejstvo finansijskog leverage-a na neto dobitak i stopu prinosa na sopstvena sredstva. Zbog toga je neophodno rešiti problem maksimiranja rentabilnosti, sa jedne strane, a da pri tome preduzeće ostane u granicama zdrave likvidnosti i solventnosti, sa druge strane. Increased dynamics’ conditions of the business results, stimulate companies to further increase the volume, thus influencing the disproportionate increase in trading profit, while not hesitating from further borrowing of funds due to lack of their own, thereby intensifying the financial risk and the effect of financial leverage onto net profit and return rate on their own funds. Therefore, it is necessary to resolve the problem of maximizing the profitability while at the same time keeping the company within the limits of healthy liquidity and solvency. Rizik od insolventnosti nalaže veliku opreznost i veštinu prilikom kombinovanja dejstva poslovnog i finansijskog leverage-a. Jer, ukoliko je donja granica rentabilnosti locirana visoko i bliža gornjoj granici fizičkog kapaciteta preduzeća, a pri tome je područje poslovnog dobitka relativno usko, dok obim poslovne aktivnosti ispoljava osetne znake nestabilnosti, iz različitih razloga, tada nije baš preporučljivo pri visokom faktoru poslovnog leverage-a igrati na visok faktor finansijskog leverage-a. The insolvency risk requires great care and skill in combining the effects of business and financial leverage. Because, if the profitability threshold is located higher and closer to the upper limit of the physical capacity of the company, with the area of business profit relatively narrow, while the volume of business activity manifests considerable signs of instability, for various reasons, it is not recommended to rely at a high level of financial leverage at a high level of business leverage. Kako složeni rizik (leverage) predstavlja neizvesnost pri ostvarivanju bruto dobitka, neto dobitka, kao i prinosa na sopstveni kapital, za izračunavanje faktora složenog leverage-a neophodno je imati podatke o visini marže pokrića, poslovnog dobitka, bruto dobitka, faktora poslovnog leverage-a i faktora finansijskog leverage-a. Since compound risk (leverage) represents the uncertainty in the realization of gross profit, net profit and return on own equity, it is necessary to have the information on the level of coverage margin, trading profit, gross profit, business leverage factors and financial leverage factors in order to calculate the compound leverage factor. 58 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY Da bismo izračunali faktor finansijskog leverage-a, potrebno je, primera radi, posmatrati dva preduzeća “X” i “Y”, sa različitim planskim bilansima uspeha, a kao što se vidi u tabeli 3. To calculate the financial leverage factor, for example, it is possible to observe two companies “X” and “Y”, with various income statements, as shown in Table 3 Tabela 3 Utvrđivanje složenog leverage-a (Vunjak, 2005) Table 3 Determining compound leverage (Vunjak, 2005) Utvrđivanje složenog leverage-a Determining compound leverage Redni broj No. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Preduzeće ( u 000 $) Company (in $ 000) “X” “Y” Elementi Marža pokrića (prihodi od prodaje minus varijabilni rashodi, ili Pp-Vr) Coverage margin (sales income minus variable expenses) Poslovni dobitak (marža pokrića minus rashodi perioda bez kamata, ili Mp-Rpk) Trading profit (coverage margin minus Expenses for the periods without interests) Bruto dobitak (poslovni dobitak minus neto rashodi finansiranja, ili Pdb-Nrf) Gross profit (trading profit minus net financing expenses) Faktor poslovnog leverage-a (1/2 ili Mp/Pdb) Business leverage factor (1/2) Faktor finansijskog leverage-a ( 2/3 ili Pdb/Bdp) Financial leverage factor (2/3) Faktor složenog leverage-a (1/3 ili Pl x Fl) (4x5) Compound leverage factor (1/3) (4x5) 480 600 240 150 80 100 2,0 4,0 3,0 1,5 6,0 6,0 Iz prezentiranog primera se vidi da prvo preduzeće “X” ima nizak faktor poslovnog leverage-a, jer mu je struktura sredstava pomerena ka obrtnim sredstvima, a što je uzrokovalo nisku amortizaciju, niske rashode perioda, kao i mogućnost pomeranja strukture kapitala ka pozajmljenim izvorima i prisustva u većem stepenu faktora finansijskog leverage-a. The aforementioned examples demonstrate that the first company ‘’X’’ has a low factor of business leverage, because the structure of its assets is shifted towards working capital, which caused low level amortization, low expenses for the periods, as well as the ability to shift the capital structure towards the borrowed sources and the greater presence of the financial leverage factor. Preduzeće “Y” ima izražen faktor poslovnog leverage-a, jer mu u strukturi sredstava dominiraju osnovna sredstva praćena visokom amortizacijom, kao i rashodima perioda. Ovo preduzeće bi trebalo smanjiti rashode finansiranja pomeranjem strukture kapitala u korist sopstvenog kapitala. Nizak nivo finansijskog leverage-a, kod ovog preduzeća, kompenzira visok nivo poslovnog leverage-a. The company “Y” is characterised by a distinguished business leverage factor, since its structure of assets is dominated by primary assets associated with high amortization as well as with expenses for the periods. This company should reduce financing expenses by shifting the capital structure in favour of its own equity. Low level of financial leverage with this company is compensated by a high level of business leverage. Menadžment preduzeća često pravi greške kada strategiju finansiranja postavlja na temeljima privremenog povećanja prihoda Management of companies often make mistakes when basing their financing strategy on the basis of temporary increase in sales prof59 V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA od prodaje u uslovima nepromenjenih pariteta između prodajnih i nabavnih cena. Povećanje prihoda od prodaje značajno povećava bruto dobit preduzeća, stopu prinosa na sopstveni kapital i stimuliše preduzeća da pomera strukturu kapitala ka tuđem kapitalu. Dovoljno je da se u relativno malom procentu smanje prihodi od prodaje pa da preduzeće uđe u zonu gubitka, uz nemogućnost brzog supstituisanja tuđeg (pozajmljenog) u sopstveni kapital. it in terms of unchanged parities between sales and purchase prices. Increase of sales profit significantly increases gross profit of a company, the rate of return on its own equity and encourages companies to shift the structure of capital towards external capital. A relatively small percentage reduction of sales income is sufficient for the company to enter the loss zone, with the inability of rapidly substituting someone else’s (borrowed) equity into its own equity. Umanjenjem kreditnog boniteta preduzeće gubi dosadašnje poverioce (koji teže naplatiti svoje potraživanje), preduzeće veoma teško pozajmljuje novi tuđi kapital radi saniranja stanja nelikvidnosti. Napred izneti argumenti ukazuju da je za menadžment preduzeća najbolje da teži zadržati faktor složenog leverage-a na što nižem nivou (Vunjak, 2005). Reducing the credit rating of a company causes the company to lose its current creditors (which tend to collect their claims) and it is very difficult for such company to borrow a new loan capital in order to repair the conditions of insolvency. The aforementioned arguments suggest that the best option for the management of a company is to strive to maintain the compound leverage factor on the lowest level possible (Vunjak, 2005). ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Spoznaja o kreditnom bonitetu preduzeća interesovanje je poslovne prakse, jer tržišna ekonomija ima za imenantnost favorizovanje preduzeća sa dobrim kreditnim bonitetom. Posebno se daje značaj oceni kreditne sposobnosti preduzeća, odnosno oceni njegove sposobnosti i spremnosti da vrati kredit pod uslovima utvrđenim u ugovoru sa bankom. Oba navedena svojstva upravo i proističu iz njegovog kreditnog boniteta. Zbog toga, svrha ocene kreditne sposobnosti preduzeća jeste otkrivanje faktora kreditnog rizika, merenje rizika ili neplaćanja, odnosno nevraćanja kredita koji treba da mu se odobri. U tu svrhu najčešće se koristi tzv. metoda 5C koja je obrađena u radu, a ona uključuje analizu pet ključnih faktora kreditnog rizika (kapacitet, karakter, kapital, zalogu, kondiciju) koji mogu značajno uticati da poslovanje preduzeća u budućnosti bude nedovoljno rentabilno ili nerentabilno. Knowledge of the credit worthiness of a company’s represents the interest of a business practice, since the market economy favours companies with solid credit worthiness. Particular importance is given to assessing the credit worthiness of a company and assessing their ability and willingness to repay the loan under the conditions specified in the contract with the bank. Both of these properties exactly arise from the company’s credit worthiness. Therefore, the purpose of credit scoring of companies is to determine the credit risk factors, measure such risk or default, i.e. non-repayment of the loan which has to be approved. For that purpose, the most commonly used method is so-called 5C method, already covered in this paper, and which includes the analysis of five key credit risk factors (capacity, character, capital, collateral, conditions) which may significantly affect the operations of a company in the future, making it unprofitable or not profitable enough. Takođe, ocena kreditnog boniteta često se kombinuje sa različitim tehnikama i modelima predviđanja radi utvrđivanja finan- Likewise, credit worthiness score is often combined with a variety of techniques and prediction models to determine financial diffi- 60 V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY sijskih teškoća preduzeća, razmere kreditnog rizika i identifikacije rizika koji imaju direktan uticaj na kreditni bonitet preduzeća. culties of a company, the extent of credit risk and the identification of risks that have a direct impact on the credit worthiness of a company. LITERATURA LITERATURE Ćurčić, N. U. (2002). Bankarski portfolio menadžment. Novi Sad: Feljton. Ćurčić, N. U. (2002). Banking Portfolio Management. Novi Sad: Feljton. Đukić, Đ., Bjelica, V., Ristić, Ž. (2004). Bankarstvo. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet. Đukić, Đ., Bjelica, V., Ristić, Ž. (2004). Banking. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet. Krasulja, D., Ivanišević, M. (2000). Poslovne finansije. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet Beograd. Krasulja, D., Ivanišević, M. (2000). Business Finance. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet Beograd. Krstić, Ž. B. (2004). Bankarski menadžment. Niš: Ekonomski fakultet. Krstić, Ž. B. (2004). Banking Management. Niš: Ekonomski fakultet. Malešević, N. Đ., Starčević, B. V. (2010). Poslovna analiza - (Business analysis). Bijeljina: Fakultet poslovne ekonomije. Malešević, N. Đ., Starčević, B. V. (2010). Poslovna analiza - (Business analysis). Bijeljina: Fakultet poslovne ekonomije. Saunders, A., Allen, L. (2002). Credit Risk Measurement. New York. Saunders, A., Allen, L. (2002). Credit Risk Measurement. New York. Starčević, V. (2009). Kreditni bonitet kao uslov uspostavljanja finansijske stabilnosti preduzeća u tranziciji. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Starčević, V. (2009). Creditworthiness as a Condition of Establishing Financial Stability of Companies in Transition. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Vunjak, N. (2005). Finansijski menadžment - Poslovne finansije. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Vunjak, N. (2005). Financial management - Business Finance. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. 61 62 POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK Doc. dr Slobodan Subotić* *Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Saobraćajni fakultet Doboj University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Doboj Pregledni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301006S, UDK 336.71: [005.52:005.334 Review paper REZIME SUMMARY Razlozi lošeg poslovanja neke banke mogu biti mnogobrojni. Ključni razlog ozbiljnih problema nalazi se u loše postavljenim kreditnim standardima pri ocjeni kreditne sposobnosti budućih dužnika, lošem upravljanju kreditnim portfolijom, kao i drugim okolnostima koje dovode do pogoršanja kreditnog rejtinga komitenta. Dakle, ključni razlog lošeg poslovanja banke jeste loše upravljanje kreditnim rizikom. Cilj upravljanja kreditnim rizikom jeste maksimiziranje rizikom korigovane stope prinosa na kapital, a da pri tome izloženost kreditnom riziku ostane u prihvatljivim granicama. Sredinom 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka komercijalne i investicione banke počinju primjenjivati VaR metodologiju za mjerenje kreditnog rizika. U radu su u kratkim crtama objašnjeni VaR koncept i VaR modeli koji se primjenjuju pri mjerenju (kvantifikovanju) rizika kreditnog portfolija. Posebna pažnja je posvećena CreditMetrics modelu, ukazano je na njegove osnovne karakteristike, te na konkretnom primjeru prezentiran i objašnjen način vrednovanja kreditnog portfolija primjenom ovog modela. The reasons for a bank’s poor performance may be various. The key reason of serious problems lies in poorly set credit standards related to the assessment of future debtors’ credit rating, poor loan portfolio management, as well as other circumstances leading to the deterioration of the customer’s credit rating. Therefore, the key reason for poor performance of a bank is its poor risk management. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize risk-adjusted return on capital, while simultaneously maintaining the exposure to credit risk within acceptable limits. In the mid 90s of the 20th century, commercial and investment banks began to implement VaR methodology in order to measure credit risk. This paper briefly explains the VaR concept and VaR models applied in the measurement (quantification) of loan portfolio risk. Special attention was paid to CreditMetrics model, indicating its main features, while presenting and explaining the evaluation of a loan portfolio by applying this model on a specific example. Ključne riječi: rizik kreditnog portfolija, VaR koncept, CaR koncept, CreditMetrics model, tranziciona matrica. Keywords: Loan portfolio risk, VaR concept, CaR concept, CreditMetrics model, Transition matrix. UVOD INTRODUCTION Upravljanje bankarskim rizicima ima za cilj optimiziranje odnosa rizika i prinosa. U fokusu bankarskih rizika jeste upravljanje kreditnim i tržišnim rizicima. Ovi rizici presudno utiču na solventnost bankarskih institucija, po- Management of bank risks aims to optimize risk and income. The focus of the bank risk is to manage credit risks and market risks. These risks have a crucial impact on the solvency of banking institutions, particularly 63 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA sebno u uslovima pojačane konkurencije kako na novčanom tržištu tako i na tržištu kapitala. “Kreditni rizik nastaje u uslovima kada potraživanja ne mogu biti relizovana na dan njihovog dospijeća, po punoj knjigovodstvenoj vrijednosti. Kreditni rizik pokazuje trajnu ili trenutnu nelikvidnost dužnika i njegovu nesposobnost da u dogovorenom roku izmiri obaveze. Kreditni rizik kao oblik rizika uslovljen je, u prvom redu, neizvjesnim okolnostima vezanim za poslovanje klijenta banke. Kreditni rizik predstavlja osnovni bankarski rizik i odnosi se na kreditne transakcije ili investicije u obveznice koje neće biti isplaćene o roku njihovog dospijeća” (Vunjak, 2006). U širem smislu, kreditni rizik se odnosi i na rizik pada kreditnog rejtinga dužnika, što sa sobom nosi pad tržišne vrijednosti potraživanja i, po tom osnovu, gubitak za kreditora. Za veliki broj banaka krediti su najveći i najznačajni vid plasmana sredstava a, samim tim, i veliki izvor rizičnog poslovanja. in terms of increased competition, both in the money market and the capital market. “Credit risk appears when the claims cannot be collected in their full value, on their due date. Credit risk demonstrates the ongoing or current insolvency of the debtor and its inability to repay its liabilities within the agreed time. In the first place, credit risk was established as one of the risk forms, by uncertain circumstances with regards to the bank’s client and its business. Credit risk is the basic banking risk, and it is related to credit transactions or investments into bonds that will not be paid on their due date’’ (Vunjak , 2006). In a broader sense, credit risk refers to the risk of debtor’s credit rating decrease, which entails lower market value of claims, thus resulting in loss to the creditor. For many banks, loans are the largest and most important form of placement of funds, and therefore represent a vast source of risk assets. Upravljanje kreditnim rizikom zahtijeva nezavisnu i neprekidnu provjeru procedura i politike, te identifikaciju, mjerenje, praćenje i kontrolu rizika. Mjerenje kreditnog rizika je izračunavanje visine gubitka koji nastaje djelovanjem neizvjesnih i nepovoljnih budućih događaja. Praćenje kreditnog rizika obuhvata aktivnosti kojima se nadzire kretanje visine rizika, dok se kontrolom provjerava usaglašavanje poslovne prakse sa usvojenom politikom, strategijom i definisanim limitima za preuzimanje rizika. Mjerenjem kreditnog rizika, kao jednom od funkcija upravljanja, određuje se kvalitet svake pojedinačne transakcije, kao i cjelokupnog kreditnog portfolija banke, te vjerovatnoća i iznos gubitaka koji mogu nastati zbog neizvršenja obaveza dužnika. Credit risk management requires constant and independent verification of procedures and policies, as well as identification, measurement, monitoring and control of risks. Credit risk measurement represents calculating the amount of loss caused by adverse and uncertain future events. Credit risk monitoring includes activities used for monitoring movement of risk level, whereas the control is used to check the alignment of business practice with the adopted policy, strategy and defined limits for risk taking. Credit risk measurement, as one of the management functions, determines not only the quality of each individual transaction, but of the entire loan portfolio of a bank, as well as the probability and the amount of loss that may arise due to failure of the debtor to perform its duties. Najveća opasnost po banke leži u gubicima koji nastaju u slučaju difolta (eng. default), odnosno neizvršenja kreditnih obaveza dužnika. Maksimalni iznos gubitka za banku, determinišu tri faktora: (1) visina izloženosti, (2) vrijednost standardne devijacije, (3) izabrani nivo tolerancije. Mjerenje kreditnog rizika može biti kvalitativno i kvantitativno. Kvantitativno sagledavanje kredit- The greatest danger to the banks lies in the losses incurring in the event of default, or failure of the debtor to repay its liabilities. The maximum amount of loss to the bank is determined by the following three factors: (1) level of loss exposure, (2) value of standard deviation, (3) selected tolerance level. Credit risk measurement can be performed both in qualitative and quantitative terms. 64 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK nih rizika ima sve veću primjenu, a sastoji se u izračunavanju prosječnog iznosa gubitka i stope disperzije gubitka oko srednje vrijednosti. Osnovno statističko mjerilo disperzije oko srednje vrijednosti jeste standardna devijacija1 kao mjerilo volatilnosti2. Quantitative measurement of credit risk has been increasingly used and consists of calculating the average amount of loss and the rate of loss dispersion around the mean. The basic statistical measure of dispersion around the mean is the standard deviation1 used as a measure of volatility2. VaR MODELI KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA VaR MODEL OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO Pod pojmom kreditnog portfolija banke treba podrazumijevati grupu kredita ili sve kredite u aktivi banke koje je menadžment banke klasifikovao (struktuirao). Primjera radi, krediti mogu biti: komercijalni, investicioni, hipotekarni, agrarni, stambeni, potrošački, exportno-importni i sl. Kreditni portfolio banke se može posmatrati i sa šireg aspekta (kompleksni portfolio), pri čemu on obuhvata ne samo kredite već i ostale izvore sredstava u pasivi bilansa stanja banke. Na ovaj način se uspostavlja ravnoteža između kredita (plasmana) i izvora sredstava banke. Ključni ciljevi kreditnog portfolija odnose se na: (1) obim portfolija, (2) strukturu portfolija, (3) kreditne usluge, (4) naplatu kredita, (5) cijenu kredita, (6) ostvareni profit (dobit) (Vunjak, 2008). The term bank loan portfolio includes a group of loans or all the loans in bank assets that the bank’s management has classified (structured). For example, the type of loans may vary: commercial, investment, mortgage, agricultural, residential, consumer, export-import, etc. Bank’s loan portfolio can be viewed from a broader point of view (complex portfolio), in which case it includes not only loans, but also other sources of funding in the liabilities of a bank’s balance sheet. That way, a balance between loans (investments) and sources of bank funds is established. The key objectives of the loan portfolio are as follows: (1) scope of the portfolio, (2) structure of the portfolio, (3) credit services, (4) loan payment, (5) loan cost, (6) earned profit (gain) (Vunjak, 2008). Sredinom 80-ih godina prošlog vijeka razvijaju se modeli zasnovani na konceptu raspodjele vjerovatnoće gubitka, odnosno promjene vrijednosti portfolija. Iako su prvenstveno razvijeni za potrebe mjerenja tržišnog rizika, ovi modeli su se počeli sredinom 90-ih godina koristiti za mjerenje kreditnog rizika. Razvijen je VaR (eng. Value at Risk) koncept kao opšta mjera ekonomoskog gubitka koji može odgovarati riziku pojedinačnih pozicija i ukupnom riziku portfolija. Ovaj koncept, kao takav, i danas dominira u oblasti mjerenja svih vrsta rizika velikih svjetskih banaka. Mjerenje rizika primjenom VaR metodologije koriste najčešće komercijalne i investicione banke Models based on the concept of probability distribution of the loss or the change of the portfolio value appeared in the mid-80s of the 20th century. Although primarily developed for measuring market risk, these models began to be used for credit risk measurement in the mid 90’s. VaR (Value at Risk) concept was developed as a general measure of economic loss that may correspond to the risk of individual positions and overall portfolio risk. This concept, as such, continues to dominate the field of all-risk measurement of large global banks. Measuring risk using VaR methodology is most used by commercial and invest- 1 Srednja vrijednsot neke stohastičke varijable (х) se izračunava po formuli: Е(х)=( хi)/n , pri čemu je Е(х) očekivana (srednja) vrijednost stohastičke varijable.Varijansa ( ²) za seriju vrijednosti (x) dobija se po formuli: ²=[ хi–Е(х)]²/n, dok je standardna devijacija jednaka kvadratnom korijenu varijanse: = ². 2 Volatilnost se može definisati kao kolebljivost cijena kredita i hartija od vrijednosti. 1 Mean value between a stochastic variable (x) is calculated by the formula: Е(х)=( хi)/n, where E(x) is the expected (mean) value of the stochastic variable. Variance ( ²) for a series of values (x) is obtained by the formula: ²=[ хi–Е(х)]²/n, while the standard deviation equals the square root of the variance: = ². 2 Volatility can be defined as: the volatility (hesitance) of the loans cost and securities. 65 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA kako zbog konceptualne jednostavnosti tako i činjenice da VaR sintetiše u jednoj vrijednosti moguće gubitke koji se mogu dogoditi sa definisanom vjerovatnoćom. VaR se može definisati kao “maksimalni očekivani gubitak, tokom datog vremenskog perioda posmatranja, pod normalnim tržišnim uslovima, uz definisani nivo pouzdanosti” (Vujnović, 2007). ment banks, mainly owing to the conceptual simplicity, and the fact that VaR synthesizes potential losses that can occur with a defined probability in a single value. VaR can be defined as: “the maximum expected loss over a given period of observation, under normal market conditions, with a defined level of reliability”. (Vujnović, 2007) Vrijednost pod rizikom (VaR) bismo mogli definisati i kao maksimalni mogući gubitak pri datom nivou tolerancije.3 Ovako izračunata vrijednost VaR-a podrazumijeva da bi, u slučaju nivoa tolerancije od 2%, izračunata vrijednost pod rizikom važila u 98% slučajeva, dok bi u 2% slučajeva, po računu vjerovatnoće, ta vrijednost bila probijena. Banka bi u principu trebalo da sama odluči da li želi da upravlja rizicima na bazi određenog praga tolerancije, čija vrijednost može varirati. Međutim, nivo tolerancije je regulisan od strane regulatornih vlasti u skladu sa prudencionom kontrolom i supervizijom internacionalizacije poslovanja finansijskih institucija.4 Value at risk (VaR) can be defined as the maximum possible loss at a certain tolerance level.3 Such calculated value of VaR implies that in case of a 2% tolerance level, the calculated value at risk would be valid in 98% of the cases, while in 2% of the cases, on the basis of probability calculation, that value would be exceeded. The bank should, in principle, decide for itself whether it wishes to manage risks based on a certain threshold of tolerance, which may vary. However, the level of tolerance is regulated by the regulatory authorities in accordance with the prudential control and supervision of internationalization of financial institutions business.4 Smisao kvantitativnog određenja VaR (eng.Value at Risk) jeste da se obezbijedi adekvatan kvantitativni nivo trajnog kapitala banke, odnosno kapitala pod rizikom CaR (eng. Capital at Rsik). Kako se CaR tretira kao krajnja zaštita banke od nesolventnosti, suština upravljanja bankarskim rizicima svodi se na izračunavanje visine VaR-a da bi se na toj osnovi odredila adekvatna visina CaR-a. Banka ipak može biti dovedena u stanje nesolventnosti ukoliko se dogodi katastrofalni ili stresni gubitak koji CaR ne može pokriti, jer je došlo do probijanja nivoa tolerancije. S obzirom na to da kapital pod rizikom (CaR) obuhvata sve tipove rizika banke, treba ga kvantifikovati i posmatrati na nivou banke kao cjeline, odnosno na portfolio nivou. The purpose of quantitative determination of VaR (Value at Risk) is to provide adequate quantitative level of a bank’s permanent capital, or Capital at Risk (CaR). As the CaR is treated as the ultimate protection of a bank from insolvency, the essence of bank risk management is reduced onto calculating the amount of VaR, which is later to be used for determining the appropriate CaR level. The bank may still become insolvent, in the case of a catastrophic or a stressful loss, which CaR cannot cover since the tolerance level has been breached. Given that Capital at Risk (CaR) includes all types of bank risk, it should be quantified and considered at the level of a bank as a whole, or on a portfolio 3 Pod nivoom tolerancije se podrazumijeva vjerovatnoća da gubici probijaju matematički projektovanu granicu. 4 Bazelski komitet je 1988. propisao Bazel I sporazumom da je visina adekvatnog nivoa kapitala 8% za riziko ponderisanu aktivu. Kasnijim revidiranjem ovog sporazuma 2004. godine plasiran je Novi sporazum, odnosno Bazel II sporazum, kojim je propisano da visina obaveznog kapitala bude u skladu sa rizikom dužnika na mikro nivou.Tako su dužnici svrstani u odgovarajuće kategorije rizika po rejting skali (rejting klase) na bazi pondera rizika.Visina kreditnog rizika se dobije množenjem kreditne izloženosti (nominalni iznos zajma) sa ponderima rizika. 3 Tolerance level implies the probability that the losses exceed the projected mathematical limit. 4 In 1988, Basel Committee defined Basel I Agreement stating that the adequate level of equity is 8% for risk-weighted assets. Subsequent revision of th Agreement in 2004, resulted in the launch of a new, Basel II Agreement, which stipulates that the amount of regulatory capital shall be in line with the debtor risk at a micro level. That way, the debtors have been classified in the appropriate risk categories on the basis of a rating scale (rating class), based on the risk weight. Credit risk level is obtained by multiplying the credit exposure (nominal amount of the loan) with the risk weights. 66 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK Da bi banka mogla nesmetano funkcinisati, neophodno je međusobno uskladiti vrijednosti VaR-a i CaR-a. Odnosno, ukoliko dođe do povećanja rizika (VaR), neophodno je i povećanje kapitala pod rizikom (CaR) i obrnuto. basis. In order for the bank to operate safely it is necessary to mutually adjust the value of both VaR and CaR. That is, if there is an increase in risk (VaR), it is necessary to increase capital at risk (CaR) and vice versa. Modeli kreditnog rizika koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u cilju procjene parametara gubitaka na osnovu male količine posmatranih podataka. Pristupi koji se koriste kao baza svih praktičnih modela kreditnog rizika su: model kovarijanse, model zasnovan na aktuarskom pristupu i modeli zasnovani na simulaciji. Osnovna razlika između ovih modela je pristup karakterizaciji korelacija. Svaki od ovih modela je integrisan u softverski paket kreiran u različitim kompanijama (Vujnović, 2007). Iako se po pristupu razlikuju, VaR modeli imaju određeni broj istih prednosti i ograničenja. Svaki pristup uzima u obzir širok spektar faktora rizika (kamatne stope, devizni kursevi, terminske cijene i dr.). Nedostatak svakog od pristupa je u tome što pretpostavlja da će istorijski odnosi između faktora rizika biti ponovljeni u budućnosti. Zajedničko za sve modele kreditnog rizika jeste da koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u cilju procjene parametara gubitaka na osnovu male količine raspoloživih podataka. VaR modeli kreditnog portfolija primjenjivi u praksi su: (1) Model kovarijansi, (2) CreditMetrics model, (3) McKinsey model, (4) CreditRisk metodologija. Credit risk models utilize assumptions and financial theories in order to estimate the parameters of losses based on a minor amount of observed data. The approaches used as the base for all practical models of credit risk are as follows: covariance model, actuarial approach based model and simulation-based model. The main difference between these models is the approach to the characterization of correlations. Each of these models has been integrated into a software package created in different companies (Vujnović, 2007). Although different in their approach, VaR models share a certain number of advantages and limitations. Each approach takes into account a wide range of risk factors (interest rates, foreign exchange rates, forward prices, etc.). The lack of each of the approaches is that they assume that the historical relationship between the risk factors shall be repeated in the future. Typical to all models of credit risk is to use assumptions and financial theories in order to estimate the loss parameters based on a limited amount of data available. VaR Credit portfolio models applicable in practice are as follows: (1) Covariance model, (2) CreditMetrics model, (3) McKinsey model, (4) CreditRisk methodology. Model kovarijansi, poznat i kao “Markovitz” model, je model kod koga su korelacije definisane kao korelacije neizvršenja obaveza. S obzirom na to da se primjenjuje pri izračunavanju visine kreditnog rizika, potrebno je izračunati i rezultate srednje vrijednosti. Koristi se za sve vrste kreditne izloženosti i formuliše se u četiri koraka: (1) definisanje očekivanog gubitka (EL) i neočekivanog gubitka (UL) portfolija, (2) procjena korelacije neizvršenja obaveza, (3) procjena sveobuhvatne distribucije vjerovatnoća portfolija na osnovu definisanih vrijednosti (EL) i (UL), (4) alokacija kapitala cjelokupnog portfolija na individualne kredite koristeći koncept doprinosa neočekivanih gubitaka (UL). Covariance model, also known as “Markowitz’’ model, is a model in which the correlations are defined as default correlations. Since it is applied in the calculation of the amount of credit risk, the results of the mean value should be calculated as well. It is used for all types of credit exposure and is formulated with four steps: (1) Defining the expected loss (EL) and unexpected loss (UL) of portfolio, (2) Evaluation of the default correlation, (3) Evaluation of a comprehensive probability distribution of portfolio based on defined values (EL) and (UL), (4) Allocation of the overall portfolio capital onto individual loans using the concept of unexpected losses (UL) contribution. 67 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA CreditMetrics model je prvi put publikovan aprila 1997. godine kao model na osnovu kojeg se može mjeriti kreditni rizik širokog niza finansijskih instrumenata i njihovih portfolija, polazeći pri tome od portfolio teorije i VaR metodologije. Ovaj model je publikovala banka J.P. Morgan, a u saradnji sa Bank of America, BZW, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Swiss bank Corporation, Union bank of Switzerland i KMW Corporation. Iako se zasniva na modelu koji je J.P. Morgan razvio za mjerenje, upravljanje i kontrolu tržišnog rizika, CreditMetrics model se znatno razlikuje od ovog modela. Naime, ovaj model predstavlja dobru metodologiju za mjerenje rizika neizvršenja obaveza. Za razliku od tržišnih rizika, koji na osnovu podataka o dnevnim cijenama omogućavaju neposrednu kalkulaciju VaR-a, ova metodologija konstruiše hipotetičku tržišnu vrijednost i volatilnost vrijednosti na osnovu promjene kreditnog rejtinga koji se ne mogu direktno posmatrati. Treba istaći, da su modeli za kvantitativno mjerenje tržišnih vrijednosti bankarskih kredita nastali znatno kasnije od modela za mjerenje vrijednosti tržišnih finansijskih instrumenata (npr. obveznica). Razlog ovome je što bankarski krediti ne predstavljaju tržišne instrumente, osim u izuzetnim slučajevima. Ovaj problem je rješen na način da su bankarski krediti graduirani na skali kreditnih rejtinga od strane poznatih rejting agencija. U pitanju su rejtinzi kompanija, uključujući promjene kreditnih rejtinga bilo po osnovu emitovanih obveznica, ili kredita koje su kompanije dobile od banaka. CreditMetrics model was first published in April in 1997, as a model which can be used for measurement of the credit risk of a wide range of financial instruments and their portfolios, thereby starting with portfolio theory and VaR methodology. This model was published by the J.P. Morgan bank, in collaboration with Bank of America, BZW, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Swiss Bank Corporation, Union Bank of Switzerland and KMW Corporation. Although based on a model which J.P. Morgan developed to measure, manage and control the market risk, CreditMetrics model differs significantly from such model. In fact, this model represents a good methodology for measuring the risk of default. Contrary to market risks, which allow direct calculation of VaR on the basis of the data on daily prices, this methodology constructs a hypothetical market value and volatility of value based on changes in credit ratings that cannot be directly observed. It should be noted that the models for quantitative measurement of the bank loans’ market value incurred much later than the models for measuring the market value of financial instruments (e.g. bonds). The main reason is that bank loans are not market-based instruments, apart from exceptional cases. Such problem was solved by grading bank loans on a credit rating scale by wellknown rating agencies, with regards to ratings of companies, including credit ratings changes, either on the basis of issued bonds or loans that companies received from banks. McKinsey model je komplementaran sa CreditMetrics metodologijom, a osnovni koncept je tranziciona matrica za pojedinu zemlju. Ovaj model je multifaktorski, a koristi se za simulaciju zajedničke uslovne distribucije neizvršenja obaveza i vjerovatnoće migracije za različite rejting klase kako u različitim privrednim granama tako i za svaku zemlju. Pri tome se uzima u obzir vrijednost makroekonomskih faktora. S obzirom na to da je ekonomija pod velikim uticajem makroekonomskih faktora, McKinsey model je sredstvo za povezivanje svih makroekonomskih faktora sa neizvršenjem obaveza i promjenjivim vjerovatnoćama. McKinsey model is complementary to the CreditMetrics methodology, with the basic concept being the transition matrix for a country. This model is multifactorial and is used to simulate joint conditional distribution of default and migration probability for different rating classes, both in a variety of industries and for each country. At the same time, the value of macroeconomic factors is taken into account. Given that the economy is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors, McKinsey model is an instrument to connect all the macroeconomic factors with default and variable probabilities. During operation- 68 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK Prilikom operacionalizacije, ovaj model koristi makroekonomske pokazatelje kao što su: stopa nezaposlenosti, stopa rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda, nivo dugoročnih kamatnih stopa, devizni kursevi, visina kamatnih stopa na štednju i sl. Ukoliko se raspolaže navedenim podacima, ovaj model se može, bez izuzetka, primijeniti na svaku zemlju, sektor ili klasu dužnika, koji reaguju različito kroz poslovne cikluse. alization, this model uses macro-economic indicators such as: unemployment rate, gross domestic product growth rate, level of longterm interest rates, foreign exchange rates, level of interest rates on savings accounts, etc. If such data is available, the model can be applied without exception to any country, sector or class of debtors, who respond differently throughout business cycles. CreditRisk metodologija operiše samo sa rizikom neizvršenja obaveza, dok zanemaruje rizik promjene kreditnog rejtinga. Model polazi od pretpostavke da je vjerovatnoća neizvršenja obaveza (PD) u posmatranom periodu ista kao u svakom drugom periodu, te da je (PD) po jednom dužniku mala, a broj neizvršenja obaveza u jednom periodu nije u bilo kakvoj vezi sa brojem neizvršenja obaveza u drugom periodu. Takođe, ne pravi pretpostavke oko razloga neizvršenja obaveza. CreditRisk methodology operates only with the risk of default, while neglecting the credit rating change risk. The Model assumes that the Probability of Default (PD) in a certain period is the same as in any other period, and that (PD) by a debtor is low, with the number of defaults in one period not being in any way related to the number of defaults in the other period. Likewise, it does not make assumptions about the causes of default. INDIKATOR VJEROVATNOĆE PROMJENE KREDITNOG REJTINGA (TRANZICIONA MATRICA) PROBABILITY INDICATOR OF CREDIT RATING CHANGE (TRANSITION MATRIX) VaR koncept je u svojoj prvobitnoj namjeni služio za mjerenje tržišnog rizika, dok se sredinom 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka počeo primjenjivati pri mjerenju kreditnog rizika. Osnovna razlika VaR koncepta za mjerenje kreditnog rizika u odnosu na mjerenje tržišnog rizika jeste u izboru egzogenih varijabli koje utiču na vrijednost portfolija. Kod tržišnih rizika kao egzogene varijable uzimaju se: (1) tržišne cijene akcija, (2) tržišne cijene roba, (3) kamatne stope i (4) devizni kursevi. Dok se pri mjerenju kreditnog rizika, kao egzogene varijable, pojavljuju: (1) kreditni rejting dužnika5, (2) tranziciona matrica kreditnog rejtinga i (3) korelacija kretanja kreditnog rejtinga dužnika. Interni (kreditni) rejting je zapravo ocjena kreditne sposobnosti dužnika izražena putem određene rejting skale. Promjene vri- VaR concept initially served its intended purpose of measuring the market risk, while in the mid-90s of the 20th century it began to be applied in credit risk measurement. The main difference between the use of VaR concept for credit risk measurement in relation to the measurement of market risk is the selection of exogenous variables that affect the portfolio value. With the market risk, the following items are used as exogenous variables: (1) market price of shares, (2) market price of commodities, (3) interest rates and (4) foreign currency exchange rates. On the other hand, the following items occur as exogenous variables in the process of measuring credit risk: (1) credit rating of the debtor5, (2) credit rating transition matrix, and (3) the correlation of debtor’s credit rating movement. Internal (credit) rating is actually a credit score of the debtor expressed through a specific rating scale. Value 5 Kreditni rejting se definiše kao ocjena kreditne sposobnosti komitenta izražena određenom ordinalnom skalom. Rejtinzi se obično obilježavaju slovnim oznakama koje određuju rang kvaliteta neke firme ili hartije od vrijednosti. 5 Credit rating is defined as client’s credit standing score expressed using a specific ordinal scale. Ratings are often marked by letters determining the ranking quality of a company or securities. 69 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA jednosti kreditnog portfolija banke se dešavaju kao posljedica promjene internog rejtinga dužnika koji se nalaze u portfoliju. change of a bank’s loan portfolio occurs as a result of changes in the internal rating of the debtors within the portfolio. Treba istaći da se rejtinzi svake kompanije mijenjaju tokom vremena i, samim tim, utiču na vrijednost portfolija banke. Pri mjerenju kreditnog rizika primjenom VaR metodologije, najbitnija je izrada tranzicione matrice kao najefikasnijeg načina za prikazivanje vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga. Tranziciona matrica ukazuje na vjerovatnoću promjene rejtinga u određenom vremenskom periodu, koji se najčešće odnosi na jednu godinu dana. Jednogodišnji period se uzima zato što se svi finansijski i drugi izvještaji o poslovanju kompanija objavljuju jednom godišnje. It should be noted that the ratings of each company vary over time, therefore affecting the value of the bank’s portfolio. In the process of Credit risk measurement using VaR methodology the most important aspect is the preparation of transition matrix as the most effective method to demonstrate the change probability in credit ratings. The transition matrix indicates the probability of a rating change within a certain period, which is usually one year. One year period is used mainly because all the financial and other reports of the companies are published annually. Tabela 1 Tranziciona matrica (Standard&Poor’s, 1996) Table 1 Credit rating change Matrix (Standard&Poor’s, 1996) Inicijalni rejting Initial rating AAA AA A BBB BB B C AAA 90,81 0,70 0,09 0,02 0,03 0,00 0,22 AA 8,33 90,65 2,27 0,33 0,14 0,11 0,00 Rejting na kraju godine (%) Year-end rating (%) A BBB BB B 0,68 0,06 0,12 0,00 7,79 0,54 0,06 0,14 90,05 5,52 0,74 0,26 5,95 86,93 5,30 1,17 0,67 7,73 80,53 8,84 0,24 0,43 6,48 83,46 0,22 1,30 2,38 11,24 Tabela 1 prikazuje izgled jedne tranzicione matrice. Zbir svih vjerovatnoća u tranzicionoj matrici mora biti 100 u svakom od redova, dok svaki red polazi od inicijalnog rejtinga. Ukoliko se želi provjeriti vjerovatnoća kompanije koja danas rangira AA, a na kraju godine BBB, iz tranzicione matrice se vidi da je njena vrijednost 0,54. Takođe se može primijetiti da su najveće vjerovatnoće po dijagonali tranzicione matrice, što ukazuje na činjenicu da većina kompanija ne mijenja rejting u toku godine. Pojedine vjerovatnoće u tranzicionoj matrici su jednake nuli (B, C, D), a što navodi na zaključak da je vjerovatnoća ravna nuli da neka kompanija iz ranga AAA bankrotira. 70 C 0,00 0,02 0,01 0,12 1,00 4,07 64,86 D 0,00 0,00 0,06 0,18 1,06 5,20 19,79 Table 1 demonstrates the appearance of a transition matrix. The sum of all probabilities within a transitional matrix must be 100 in each row, with each row starting with the initial rating. If the purpose is to check the credit rating change probability of a company that is currently ranked as AA, while having the rating of BBB at the end of the year, the transition matrix shows that its value is 0.54. It may also be noted that the highest probability levels are set on the transition matrix diagonal, which indicates that most companies do not change their rating within a year. Some of the probabilities within the transitional matrix are equal to zero (B, C, D), which suggests that the probability of AAA ranked company going bankrupt equals zero. S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK Tranzicione matrice se izrađuju na osnovu istorijskih podataka o kretanju rejtinga svih dužnika koji čine portfolio. Pomoću tranzicionih matrica i metoda istorijske tabulacije6 promjena kreditnog rejtinga svih dužnika iz kreditnog portfolija, tokom određenog broja godina, moguće je utvrditi vjerovatnoću promjene kreditnog rejtinga svakog dužnika. Gotove tranzicione matrice se mogu preuzeti od više eksternih rejting agencija. Pojedine banke i same izrađuju tranzicione matrice na osnovu sopstvenih vremenskih serija promjena kreditnog rejtinga svojih komitenata. Transition matrices are made on the basis of historical data on the rating movement of all the debtors forming a portfolio. Using the transition matrices and the method of historical tabulation6 of credit ratings changes of debtors in the loan portfolio over a certain period of years, it is possible to determine the probability of credit rating change of each debtor. Completed transition matrices can be obtained from several external rating agencies. Some banks prepare the transition matrices themselves, based on their own time series of its customers’ credit rating changes. Prilikom izrade tranzicione matrice treba voditi računa o četiri osnovna pravila vezana za vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga: (1) bolji kreditni rejtinzi nikad ne smiju imati veću vjerovatnoću difolta od lošijih; (2) vjerovatnoća promjene rejtinga je manja što je rejting kategorija više udaljena; (3) vjerovatnoća promjene rejtinga u određenu rejting kategoriju treba da bude veća za rejting kategorije koje su bliže datoj rejting kategoriji; (4) vjerovatnoća difolta je veća što je duži vremenski period posmatranja In the process of making the transition matrix, four basic rules regarding the probability of changes in credit ratings should be taken into account: (1) A superior credit rating should never have a higher default probability than the inferior one; (2) The further the rating category is, the lower is the probability of a rating change; (3) Probability of a rating change into a particular rating category should be higher for rating categories closer to the given rating category; (4) The probability of default is higher the longer the period of observation is. Da bi se shvatila suština navedenog, ova pravila je potrebno pojasniti. Prvo, što je veći kreditni rejting nekog dužnika, to je manja vjerovatnoća njegovog bankrota. Tako je manja vjerovatnoća da neki dužnik iz kategorije AA bankrotira, od vjerovatnoće za dužnika iz kategorije BBB. Drugo, manja je vjerovatnoća da se promijeni rejting za dvije ili tri katagorije, nego za jednu (BB u A, nego BBB). Treće, veća je vjerovatnoća da neka kompanija pređe u određenu rejting kategoriju ukoliko je njen rejting bliži toj kategoriji. Odnosno, veća je vjerovatnoća da neko iz kategorije BB pređe u A, nego iz kategorije C. Četvrto, postoji veća vjerovatnoća da kompanija bankrotira u dužem vremenskom periodu, nego u kraćem vremenskom periodu. To znači da kumulativne vjerovatnoće difolta moraju biti veće od vjerovatnoće difolta za godinu dana. In order to understand the essence of the above, these rules need clarification. Firstly, the higher the credit rating of a debtor, the lower the probability of its bankruptcy is. Thus, the probability that a debtor from the AA category goes bankrupt is lower than the probability that a debtor from the BBB category goes bankrupt. Secondly, the possibility of a rating change for two or even three categories is lower than for just one (more likely for BB to directly go into BBB than into A). Thirdly, the probability that a company moves to a particular rating category is higher if its rating is closer to that category. That is, it is more likely that a company from the BB category moves to A category, than a company from the C category. Finally, there is a greater probability that a company goes bankrupt in the long run, than in the short period of time. That implies that the cumulative probability of default must be higher than the annual probability of default. 6 Metod istorijske tabulacije pretpostavlja da je za sve dužnike kreditni rejting određen pravilno i korektno. Odnosno, da su svi dužnici obilježeni istim slovima za rejting istog kvaliteta. 6 Historical tabulation method assumes that the credit rating for all of the debtors has been determined properly and fairly. That is, that all the debtors have been marked with the same letter for the same quality rating. 71 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA Tabela 2 Matrica promjene kreditnog rejtinga (Stojanovski, 2006) Inicijalni rejting Initial rating AAA AA A BBB BB B C Total Table 2 Credit rating change Matrix (Stojanovski, 2006) Rejting na kraju godine (%) Year-end rating (%) AAA AA A BBB BB B C D 1800 35 140 5 3 1 1 1.985 170 4.500 340 75 12 5 0 5.102 15 390 13.640 1.500 70 10 2 15.627 12 30 740 21.750 775 20 16 23.343 3 20 80 1.300 8.120 185 22 9.730 0 15 30 275 882 2.140 77 3.419 0 10 25 85 125 124 357 726 0 0 5 10 13 15 25 68 Ukupno Total 2.000 5.000 15.000 25.000 10.000 2.500 500 60.000 Ukoliko bismo htjeli izraditi tranzicionu matricu primjenom metoda istorijske tabulacije, potrebno je najmanje pet godina pratiti kretanje kreditnog rejtinga (npr. hiljadu kompanija) koje čine portfolio. Tako bi se dobila baza podataka od 60 hiljada kompanija-mjeseci (1000x5x12), koja predstavlja matricu promjene kreditnog rejtinga prikazanu u tabeli 2. Dobijena matrica promjene kreditnog rejtinga se prevodi u tranzicionu matricu tako što se računaju vjerovatnoće promjene. Primjera radi, da kompanija iz kategorije A na kraju godine završi u kategoriji BBB, vjerovatnoća promjene kreditnog rejtinga se izračunava kao količnik 740/15000=0,0493 ili 4,93%. Vjerovatnoća da kompanija iz BBB ostane u BBB se izračunava kao količnik 21750/25000=0,87, ili 87%. Na ovaj način se formira tranziciona matrica za vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga koja je slična tranzicionoj matrici prikazanoj u tabeli 1. In order to prepare a transition matrix using methods of historical tabulations, at least five years period is required to track the movement of credit rating (e.g. of a thousand companies) comprising the portfolio. Thus, a database of 60 thousands companies-months would be generated (1000x5x12), which represents a Credit rating change matrix shown in Table 2. The resulting Credit rating change matrix is converted into transition matrix by calculating the probability of change. For example, for a company from the category A to move into the category BBB, the probability of the credit rating change is calculated as the quotient of 740/15000=0.0493 or 4.93%. The probability that a company from BBB remains in BBB is calculated as the ratio of 21750/25000=0.87 or 87%. That way, a transition matrix for the possibility of credit rating change is formed, which is similar to the transition matrix shown in Table 1. VREDNOVANJE KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA EVALUATION OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO Moguće promjene kvaliteta kredita u portfoliju kredita banke moguće je ilustrovati primjenom CreditMetrics modela. CreditMetrics model procjenjuje individualne i portfolio vrijednosti pod rizikom (VaR), a da pri tome najprije određuje profil izloženosti riziku svake od pozicija u kreditnom portfoliju. Nakon toga Possible credit quality changes in the loan portfolio of banks can be illustrated using the CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model assesses individual and portfolio values at risk (VaR), while first determining the risk exposure profile of each of the positions in the portfolio, followed by the calculation of vol- 72 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK se izračunava volatilnost svake pozicije nastale povećanjem ili smanjenjem kreditnog rejtinga kompanija, odnosno neotplaćenih kredita. Svaka promjena rejtinga se konvertuje u promjenu tržišne vrijednosti kredita kompanija, dok se agregiranjem volatilnosti individualnih kredita dobija volatilnost portfolija. atility of each position resulting from an increase or decrease in the credit rating of companies, or unpaid loans. Each rating change is converted into the market value change of the companies’ loans, while aggregation of the individual loans’ volatility results in portfolio volatility. Suština CreditMetrics modela je u tome da daje kvantitativni okvir za sagledavanje promjene kreditnih rejtinga i neplaćanje kreditnih obaveza, odnosno difolta (default). Nasuprot tradicionalnim modelima (kao što je npr. Z-score model), koji izračunavaju samo vjerovatnoću izvršenja i neizvršenja kreditnih obaveza dužnika, CreditMetrics model kao ulazni podatak uzima bilo koju procjenu vjerovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza (Probability of Default-PD)7, te procjenjuje rizik portfolija usljed promjene u vrijednosti duga, koje su izazvane promjenama u kreditnom kvalitetu dužnika. Važno je naglasiti da ovaj model procjenjuje rizike u okviru cjelokupnog portfolija, pri čemu uzima u obzir korelaciju među dužnicima. The essence of the CreditMetrics model is that it provides a quantitative framework for understanding the credit rating changes and loan liabilities or default. In contrast to traditional models, such as Z-score model that calculates only a probability of enforcement and non-enforcement of loan liabilities of the debtor, CreditMetrics model uses any assessment of the Probability of Default (PD)7, and estimates the portfolio risk due to changes in the debt value, caused by the changes in the debtor’s credit quality. It is important to emphasize that this model predicts the risks within the entire portfolio, simultaneously taking into account the correlation among the debtors. Na sljedećem primjeru je ilustrovana primjena CreditMetrics modela u izračunavanju vrijednosti kreditnog portfolija. The following example illustrates the application of CreditMetrics model in calculating the loan portfolio value. Tabela 3 Moguće promjene kvaliteta kredita u portfoliju (Marcia, M. C., Antony, S., 1999) Table 3 Possible changes in credit quality within a portfolio (Marcia, M. C., Antony, S., 1999) Budući kreditni rejting Vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga (%) Buduća vrijednost zajma (u 000 $) Future credit rating Probability of credit rating change (%) Future loan value (in 000 $) AAA 0,02 4.375 AA 0,33 4.368 A 5,95 4.364 BBB 86,93 4.300 BB 5,30 4.081 B 1,17 3.924 CCC 0,12 3.346 Default 0,18 2.125 7 Banke koje, prema Bazel II sporazumu koriste osnovni ili napredni IRB pristup pri određivanju kreditne sposobnosti dužnika, primjenjuju IRB metodologiju koja obuhvata četiri bazične komponente rizika: (1) vjerovatnoću neizvršenja dužničkih obaveza PD (Probability of Default), (2) veličinu mogućeg gubitka LGD (Loss Given Default), (3) visinu izloženosti u momentu neizvršenja obaveza EAD (Exposure At Default), (4) ročnost M (Maturity). 7 Banks which, according to Basel II, use basic or advanced IRB approach in determining creditworthiness, utilise the IRB methodology which includes four basic components of risk: (1) Probability of Default of debt liabilities (PD), (2) Amount of a potential loss (Loss Given Default - LGD), (3) Amount of exposure at the time of default (Exposure at Default - EAD), (4) Maturity (M). 73 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA Pretpostavka je da kreditni portfolio ima kreditni rejting BBB i tržišnu vrijednost od 4,300.000,00$. U tabeli 3 je vidljivo da će portfolio zadržati postojeći kreditni rejting BBB, sa vjerovatnoćom 86,93%, čime bi njegova tržišna vrijednost ostala nepromijenjena. Ukoliko se uzme u obzir da ponderisana buduća vrijednost ovog portfolija, poslije godinu dana, ima srednju vrijednost od 4,281.911,00 $8, dok vrijednost standardne devijacije ( ) iznosi 116.698,00$9. Tada, apsolutna vrijednost standardne devijacije iznosi +116.698,00$ u odnosu na srednju vrijednost portfolija od 4,281.911,00 $. S obzirom na to da pri normalnoj distribuciji rizika postoji vjerovatnoća od 1% (nivo tolerancije) da će portfolio vrijednost pasti za 2,33 10, mogući gubitak banke bi u tom slučaju iznosio 271.906,00$ (2,33x116.698$). Time bi vrijednost portfolija pala na 4,010.005,00 $ (4,281.911$ - 271.906$). To znači, da uz nivo tolerancije od 1%, izračunata vrijednost pod rizikom važi u 99% slučajeva, dok u 1% slučajeva može biti probijena. Ukoliko bi se desilo da kreditni rejting portfolija padne sa BBB na B, uz moguću vjerovatnoću od svega 1,17% (vrijednost iz tabele br. 3.), banka bi tada imala gubitak od 357.911,00$, dok bi vrijednost portfolija iznosila 3,924.000,00$ (4,281.911$ - 357.911$) (Millon, Saunders, 1999). The initial assumption is that the credit portfolio has a credit rating of BBB and a market value of $4,300.000,00. The table no.3 clearly specifies that the portfolio is likely to retain the existing credit rating BBB, with the probability of 86.93%, which would leave its market value unchanged. If we take into account that the weighted future value of the portfolio, after one year, has a mean value of $4.281.911,008 while the standard deviation ( ) is $116,698.009. Then, the absolute value of standard deviation is $116,698.00 compared to the portfolio mean value of $4,281.911,00. Given that with the normal distribution of risk, there is a 1% probability (tolerance level) that the portfolio value will drop by 2.33 10, potential bank loss in that case would amount to $271,906.00 (2.33x$116,698). This would reduce the portfolio value to $4,010.005,00 ($4,281.911 - $271,906). It means that with the tolerance level of 1%, the calculated value at risk is applicable in 99% of cases, while in 1% of the cases it can be exceeded. If the portfolio credit rating would drop from BBB to B, of which the probability is only 1.17% (the value from the Table 3.), The bank would suffer a loss of $357,911.00, while the value of the portfolio would amount to $3,924.000,00 ($4,281.911 $357,911) (Millon, Saunders, 1999). Ukoliko kreditni rejting neke kompanije, koja je dobila bankarski zajam, bude snižen, onda bi ta kompanija trebalo da plati povećanu kamatnu stopu (tzv. spred) zbog toga što je ušla u klasu povećanog rizika. Međutim, kako je kompanija već dobila bankarski zajam po fiksnoj kamatnoj stopi, onda bi tekući prinos (yield) trebalo da se reflektuje u višoj diskontnoj stopi koja se primjenjuje na novčane tokove dok zajam ne bude vraćen. Kada se na nominalne novčane tokove zajma primijeni viša diskontna stopa, dobija se smanjena tržišna vrijednost zajma u sadašnjem momentu. I If the credit rating of a company, which received a bank loan, is reduced, then the company should pay an increased interest rate (the spread) because it has entered a higher risk category. However, since the company has already obtained a bank loan at a fixed interest rate, then the current yield should be reflected in a higher discount rate applied to the cash flows until the loan is repaid. Applying a higher discount rate onto nominal cash flows of the loan, results in a reduced market value of the loan at the present time. Likewise, if a company is awarded 8 Vrijednost dobijena po formuli: Е(х)= pixi, gdje su (p) vrijednosti, a (x) vjerovatnoće. 9 Vrijednost dobijena po formuli: = ², gdje je standardna devijacija jednaka kvadratnom korijenu varijanse. Navedene vrijednosti su dobijene složenim računskim operacijama koje su ovdje izostavljene. 10 Standardna vrijednost za 1. percentil normalne raspodjele je 2,33 8 The value obtained using the following formula: Е(х)= pixi where (p) is the value, and (x) is the probability. 9 The value obtained by the formula: = ², with standard deviation equal to the square root of the variance. Values specified are obtained by complex calculations not specified in the paper. 10 The default value of 1 percentile of the normal distribution is 2.33. 74 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK obrnuto, ako kompanija dobije poboljšan kreditni rejting, tržišna vrijednost njenog zajma se u ovom trenutku povećava (Ćirović, 2006). an improved credit rating, the market value of its loan is increased at the current moment (Ćirović, 2006). CreditMetrics model može se primijeniti, na prezentirani način, za izračunavanje vrijednosti portfolija kredita samo pod uslovom da kompanije koje koriste kredite imaju verifikovane kreditne rejtinge od strane priznatih rejting agencija. Tabela 4 prikazuje uporedni pregled rejting sistema poznatih svjetskih rejting agencija. CreditMetrics model can be applied to the above presented method for calculating the value of the credit portfolio only under the condition that the companies using the loans have their credit ratings verified by a recognized rating agency. Table 4 shows the comparison of the rating system by renowned international rating agencies. Tabela 4 Uporedni pregled rejting sistema (Bjelica, 2001) Table 4 Comparison of rating scale (Bjelica, 2001) Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Bank Watch Aaa AAA A Aa AA A/B A A B Baa BBB B/C Ba BB C B B C/D Caa CCC D Ca CC D/E C C E D Ukoliko dotične kompanije imaju i emitovane obveznice na finansijskom tržištu, tada je moguće uporediti tržišne cijene obveznica sa rejtinzima priznatih agencija. Problem nastaje kod bankarskih zajmova koji nemaju ni tržišne cijene obveznice, ni rejting profesionalnih rejting institucija. Prema odredbama Bazel II sporazuma, banke mogu koristiti dva pristupa određivanju kreditne sposobnosti dužnika: standardizovani pristup i pristup internog rej- Kvalitet Quality Najveći Highest grade Visok High grade Viši srednji Upper medium grade Srednji Medium grade Niži srednji Lower medium grade Špekulativni Highly Speculative Loš Substantial risks Visoko špek. Extremely speculative Vrlo loš Very poor Rizičan In default If the concerned companies have issued bonds in the financial markets, it is possible to compare the market prices of the bonds with the ratings of recognized agencies. The problem arises with bank loans that have neither a market price of a bond, nor a rating established by professional rating institutions. Under the provisions of Basel II, banks can use two approaches to determine creditworthiness: the standardized approach 75 S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA tinga (IRB-Internal Ratings Based Approach). Ukoliko banka koristi standardizovani pristup, tada na svaku klasu rizika mora primijeniti pondere rizika, koje određuje supervizorska institucija, na bazi procjene kreditnih rizika od strane neke priznate rejting agencije. Međutim, pri primjeni IRB pristupa, sofisticirane banke koriste svoje interne metodologije, pod uslovom da su verifikovane od strane odgovarajuće supervizorske institucije. and Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRB). If a bank uses the standardized approach, the risk weights must be applied to each of the risk classes, as determined by a supervisory institution, based on the credit risk assessment by a recognized rating agency. However, when applying the IRB approach, sophisticated banks utilise their own methodology, provided that they have been certified by the appropriate supervisory institutions. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Sredinom 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka razvijen je VaR (Value at Risk) koncept koji je danas dominantan u oblasti mjerenja svih vrsta rizika u velikim svjetskim bankama. Finansijske institucije su razvile VaR koncept kao opštu mjeru ekonomoskog gubitka, koji može odgovarati riziku pojedinačnih pozicija i ukupnom riziku portfolija. Zajedničko za sve VaR modele kreditnog portfolija jeste da koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u cilju procjene parametara gubitaka na osnovu male količine raspoloživih podataka. Najbitnija stvar kod mjerenja kreditnog rizika VaR modelima jeste izrada tranzicione matrice, kao pokazatelja vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga kompanije u određenom vremenskom periodu. Jedan od VaR modela vrednovanja kreditnog portfolija jeste CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model, prvi put publikovan 1997. godine, je model na osnovu kojeg se može mjeriti kreditni rizik širokog niza instrumenata i njihovih portfolija, pri tome polazeći od portfolio teorije i VaR metodologije. Nasuprot tradicionalnim modelima, koji izračunavaju samo vjerovatnoću izvršenja i neizvršenja kreditnih obaveza dužnika, CreditMetrics model kao ulazni podatak uzima bilo koju procjenu vjerovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza (PD), te procjenjuje rizik portfolija usljed promjene u vrijednosti duga, koje su izazvane promjenama u kreditnom kvalitetu dužnika. Takođe, procjenjuje rizike u okviru cjelokupnog portfolija, pri čemu uzima u obzir korelaciju među dužnicima. CreditMetrics model može se primijeniti za izračunavanje vrijednosti portfolija kredita In the mid-90s of the 20th century, the VaR (Value at Risk) concept was developed. The concept is now dominant in the field of measurement of all types of risk in large global banks. Financial institutions have developed the VaR concept as a general measure of an economic loss, which may correspond to individual positions risk and overall portfolio risk. Common to all of the VaR credit portfolio models is to use assumptions and financial theories in order to estimate the parameters of losses based on a little amount of data available. The most important aspect in measuring credit risk by VaR model is preparing the transition matrix as an indicator of the probability of a company’s credit rating change over a certain period of time. One of the VaR models for evaluating the loan portfolio is CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model, first published in 1997, is a model on the basis of which a credit risk of a wide range of instruments and their portfolios can be measured, while starting from portfolio theory and VaR methodology. In contrast to the traditional models, which calculate only the probability of enforcement and non-enforcement of loan liabilities of the debtor, CreditMetrics model uses any assessment of the Probability of Default (PD) as input, and it estimates the risk of the portfolio due to changes in the value of debt, caused by the changes in the debtor’s creditworthiness. Likewise, it estimates the risks in the overall portfolio, taking into account the correlation among the debtors. CreditMetrics model can be applied to calcu- 76 S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK samo pod uslovom da kompanije imaju verifikovane kreditne rejtinge od strane priznatih rejting agencija ili banaka. late the value of the loan portfolio only if the companies have had their credit ratings verified by recognized rating agencies or banks. LITERATURA LITERATURA Bazelski odbor za nadzor banaka. (2004). Međunarodni sporazum o mjerenju kapitala i standardima kapitala. Zagreb: Potekon. 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Vunjak, N. (2008). Korporativno i investiciono bankarstvo. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Bečej: Proleter a.d. Banja Luka: BLC Colege. Vunjak, N. (2008). Corporate and Investment Banking. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Bečej: Proleter a.d. Banja Luka: BLC Colege. 77 78 POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS Boriša Stevanović, dipl. ek. Stručni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301007S, UDK 336.71:[005.52:005.334 Professional paper REZIME SUMMARY Predmet analize u radu je problematika mjerenja izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku. Imajući u vidu da je kamatni rizik izloženost finansijskog položaja banke promjenjivim kretanjima kamatnih stopa, prihvatanje tog rizika je uobičajen dio bankarskog poslovanja i može biti važan izvor profitabilnosti i vrijednosti preduzeća za dioničare. Međutim, prekomjeran kamatni rizik može predstavljati značajniju prijetnju zaradi i kapitalnoj osnovi banke. Na raspolaganju su raznovrsni modeli i metode mjerenja izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku, na osnovu kojih se može identifikovati nivo izloženosti kamatnom riziku određene banke, što u krajnjem služi za kvalitetno upravljanje kamatnim rizikom u banci. Subject of this text is the measurement of a bank’s exposure to interest rate risk. Bearing in mind that the interest rate risk exposure of the financial position of the bank variable interest rate, acceptance that risk is a normal part of banking and can be an important source of profitability and company value for shareholders. However, excessive interest rate risk can pose a significant threat to earnings and capital base of the bank. There are various models and methods of measuring a bank’s exposure to interest rate risk on the basis of which one can identify the level of interest rate risk exposure of a certain bank, which ultimately serves for the good management of interest rate risk in the bank. Ključne riječi: kamatni rizik, banka, kamatnoosjetljiva aktiva, kamatno-osijetljiva pasiva. Keywords: interest rate risk, the bank, interestsensitive assets, interest-sensitive liabilities. UVOD INTRODUCTION Postoje različiti izvori finansijskih rizika, a kamatna stopa je važan sastavni dio. Kamatni rizik predstavlja jedan od ključnih finansijskih (tržišnih) rizika za banku. Kako se banka ne može izolovati od uticaja kretanja kamatne stope, uprava mora spoznati izvore i oblike kamatnog rizika. Spoznajom oblika kamatnog rizika u bankarstvu, banke mogu preduzeti određene mehanizme zaštite. Uticaj kamatnog rizika na finansijsko stanje banke posmatra se putem uticaja na ekonomsku vrijednost i tržišnu vrijednost banke. Obavljajući svoje dvije osnovne funkcije, banka prikuplja depozite, izvore sredstava te ih usmjerava u kreditne plasmane, vrijednosne papire (investicije) i druge oblike pozajmica, There are different sources of financial risk and the interest rate is an important component. Interest rate risk is a key financial (market) risk for the bank. As the bank can not be isolated from the impact of interest rate movements, the administration must recognize the sources and forms of interest rate risk. Cognition of the form of interest rate risk in the banking system, banks can take certain safeguards. The impact of interest rate risk on the financial condition of the bank is viewed through the impact on the economic value and the market value of the bank. In performing its two main functions, the bank collects deposits, sources of funds and directs them to a credit lending, securities (investment) and 79 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA čime se suočava s jednim od osnovnih rizika bankarskog poslovanja, rizikom kamatne stope. Za banku je kamatni rizik jedan od najznačajnijih oblika tržišnog rizika kojem se banka izlaže zahvaljujući funkciji finansijskog posrednika. Poslovanje banke stalno je izloženo kamatnom riziku, stoga je nemoguće banku izolovati od uticaja promjena kamatnih stopa. Kada kamatne stope rastu, prihodi banke mogu padati kada ona svoje obaveze otplaćuje po višim kamatnim stopama nego što su one koje naplaćuje na svoju aktivu. Za upravu banke je bitno razumijevanje uzročno-posljedične veze između kamatnog rizika i drugih rizika koji se pojavljuju u poslovanju banaka. other forms of borrowing, which is facing one of the main risks of the banking business, the interest-rate risk. For the bank’s interest rate risk is one of the most important forms of market risk to which the bank is exposed thanks to the financial intermediary. Business Bank is constantly exposed to interest rate risk, so it is impossible to isolate the impact of bank interest rates. When interest rates rise, the revenue banks can fall when it repays its obligations at higher interest rates than those charged to their assets. Management of the Bank is substantially the understanding of cause-and-effect relationship between the interest rate and other risks that arise in the banking business. ZNAČAJ MJERENЈA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA SIGNIFICANCE OF MEASURING THE INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS Rizik kamatne stope u banci se definiše kao mogućnost promjene kamatne stope u budućnosti, koja će prouzrokovati ostvarenje ekonomskog gubitka, koji banka nije očekivala. Veoma je važno da se naglasi da rizik nastaje zbog mogućnosti da se kamatne stope mogu kretati različito od onoga što menadžment banke očekuje, što rezultira u manjem kamatnom prihodu ili većim kamatnim troškovima od anticipiranih. Rezultirajući gubitak se reflektuje na nižu kamatnu maržu, manju vrijednost aktive, ili na oboje. Dakle, rizik kamatne stope se manifestuju kao smanjenje prihoda banke usljed promjena nivoa kamatnih stopa. Nijedan bankar ne može usljed potpunosti izbjeći jedan od najneugodnijih oblika rizika s kojim se banka mora suočiti – rizik kamatne stope. Rouz (Rose, 2003) ukazuje na to da, kada se kamatne stope na finansijskom tržištu promjene, promjene utiču na najvažniji izvor prihoda banke – prihod od kamata po kreditima i vrijednosnim papirima – i najvažniji izvor troškova – trošak kamata na depozite i ostala sredstva koja je banka posudila. Promjena kamatne stope takođe mijenja tržišnu vrijednost aktive i pasive banke mijenjajući tako i neto vrijednost banke, tj. vrijednost vlasničkih uloga u banku. Interest rate risk in the bank is defined as the ability to change interest rates in the future, which will result in the achievement of economic loss, which the bank is not expected. It is important to emphasize that the risk is the possibility that interest rates may move differently than what the bank’s management is expected, resulting in lower interest income and higher interest costs than anticipated. The resulting loss is reflected in a lower interest margin, lower asset value, or both. Thus, the interest rate risk is manifested as a reduction of earnings due to changes in the level of interest rates. No banker can not completely avoid one of the most awkward of the risk to which the bank has to face - the interest rate risk. Rose (2003) indicates that when the interest rates on the financial market changes, changes affecting the most important source of income for banks - interest income on loans and securities - the most important source of costs - interest expense on deposits and other assets that the bank lent. Changing interest rates also changes the market value of the assets and liabilities of the bank and make the net worth of the bank, that is. value of equity in the banks. Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (The Basel Committee on Banking Su- The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004) states that it is important for 80 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS pervision, 2004) navodi da je vrlo važno da banke imaju sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se obuhvataju svi značajni izvori kamatnog rizika i procjenjuju učinci promjena kamatnih stopa na profitabilnost banke. Uprava banke i osobe odgovorne za upravljanje rizicima moraju dobro razumjeti pretpostavke na kojima se temelji određeni sistem. Uopšteno, nevezano za složenost i opseg aktivnosti pojedine banke, banke moraju imati sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se procjenjuju učinci promjena kamatnih stopa na zaradu i na ekonomsku vrijednost. Ti sistemi treba da pruže razumljive pokazatelje trenutnog nivoa izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku i moraju biti sposobni identifikovati svaku eventualnu prekomjernu izloženost. Sistemi za mjerenje moraju: (1) procijeniti sve značajne kamatne rizike povezane sa imovinom, obavezama i vanbilansnim pozicijama banke, (2) koristiti se opšte prihvaćenim finansijskim pojmovima i tehnikama mjerenja rizika, i imati dobro dokumentovane pretpostavke i parametre. banks to have systems in place to measure the interest rate risk, which include all significant sources of interest rate risk and assess the effects of changes in interest rates on the bank’s profitability. The bank’s management and those responsible for risk management must be able to understand the assumptions underlying the particular system. In general, not related to the complexity and scope of the activities of individual banks, banks must have a system for measuring interest rate risk, which estimates the effects of interest rate changes on earnings and economic value. These systems should provide comprehensible indicators of the current level of the bank’s exposure to interest rate risk and must be able to identify any possible over-exposure. Measurement systems must: (1) assess any significant interest rate risk associated with the assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet positions of banks, (2) use the generally accepted financial concepts and risk measurement techniques, and have a well-documented assumptions and parameters. Kao opšte pravilo, poželjno je da svaki sistem za mjerenje uključuje izloženosti kamatnom riziku koje proizilaze iz punog opsega aktivnosti banke, uključujući izvore iz aktivnosti trgovanja i aktivnosti koje nisu aktivnosti trgovanja. To ne znači da se za pojedine aktivnosti ne mogu koristiti drugi sistemi za mjerenje i pristupi upravljanju rizicima, međutim, rukovodstvo mora imati integrisani pregled nad kamatnim rizikom svih proizvoda i poslovnih linija. Sistem za mjerenje kamatnog rizika treba uzeti u obzir sve značajne izvore kamatnog rizika uključujući rizik ročne neusklađenosti, rizik krive prinosa, rizik osnovice i rizik opcije. U mnogo slučajeva karakteristike kamatnih stopa najvećih udjela banke definisaće njen ukupan profil rizičnosti. Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2004) sugeriše da sistemi za mjerenje kamatnog rizika treba da osiguraju posebno strog tretman onih instrumenata koji bi mogli značajno uticati na ukupnu poziciju banke, čak i ako oni ne predstavljaju veliku koncentraciju. Posebnu pažnju As a general rule, it is desirable that each system includes measurement of interest rate risk arising from a full range of banking activities, including sources from trading activities and activities that are not trading activities. This does not mean that the individual events can not be used by other measuring systems and approaches to risk management, but management should have an integrated view of the interest rate risk of the product and business lines. The system for measuring interest rate risk should take into account all significant sources of interest rate risk, including the risk of maturity mismatch risk, yield curve risk, basis risk, and options. In many cases, the interest rate characteristics of the major share of the bank will define its overall risk profile. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004) suggests that systems for measuring interest rate risk should also provide particularly harsh treatment of those instruments that could significantly affect the overall position of the bank, even if they are not a large concentration. Particular attention 81 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA treba posvetiti instrumentima sa značajnim ugrađenim ili eksplicitnim svojstvima opcija. should be paid to instruments with significant embedded or explicit option characteristics. METODE MJERENЈA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA METHODS OF MEASUREMENT OF INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS Postoji određeni broj tehnika za mjerenje izloženosti kamatnom riziku zarade i ekonomske vrijednosti. Nivo njihove složenosti kreće se od jednostavnih kalkulacija do statičkih simulacija na temelju trenutnih udjela, te naprednih tehnika dinamičkog modeliranja koje odražavaju potencijalne buduće poslovne aktivnosti. Osnovna metodologija mjerenja rizika kamatnih stopa polazi od redefinisanja i pregrupisavanja aktive u blokove sa fiksnim i promjenljivim kamatnim stopama i rokovima dospijeća i reugovaranja ili automatske promjene kamatne stope. Naravno, u uslovima nestabilnih kamatnih stopa, banka će nastojati da ima relativno veći udio pozicija sa promjenljivim kamatnim stopama i kraćim rokovim dospijeća pozicija u pogledu promjena kamatnih stopa. Ćurčić i Barjaktarović (2010) konstatuju da osjetljivost zarade banke na promjene kamatnih stopa zavisi od strukure dospijeća u bilansu banke. Pri tome treba imati u vidu da banka uvijek ima kontrolu nad bilansom, ali skoro da nema kontrole nad kamatnim stopama. There are a number of techniques for the measurement of interest rate risk earnings and economic value. Their level of complexity ranges from simple calculations to static simulations based on current investments and advanced techniques of dynamic modeling to reflect potential future business. The basic methodology for measuring interest rate risk starts to redefining and regrouping of assets into blocks with fixed and variable interest rates and maturities and automatic changes in interest rates. Of course, in terms of volatile interest rates, the bank will try to have a relatively higher proportion of positions with varying interest rates and shorter maturities position in terms of interest rates. Curcic and Barjaktarovic (2010) note that the sensitivity of bank profits to changes in interest rates depends on the maturity structures of the bank’s balance sheet. It should be borne in mind that the bank still has control over the balance, but there is almost no control over interest rates. Kompjuterski modeli simulacije Computer simulation models Kompjuterski modeli simulacije su napredniji sistemi za mjerenje kamatnog rizika, koje obično upotrebljavaju banke koje se koriste kompleksnim finansijskim instrumentima ili koje imaju složene profile rizičnosti. Ove tehnike simulacije obično uključuju detaljne procjene mogućih učinaka promjena kamatnih stopa na zaradu i ekonomsku vrijednost simulacijom budućeg kretanja kamatnih stopa i njihovog učinka na novčane tokove. U statičnim simulacijama se procjenjuju novčani tokovi koji proizilaze isključivo iz bilansnih i vanbilansnih pozicija banke. U pristupu dinamičnih simulacija, simulacija se temelji na detaljnim pretpostavkama o budućem toku kamatnih stopa i očekivanim promjenama u poslovnoj aktivnosti banke tokom tog vreme- Computer simulation models have advanced systems for the measurement of interest rate risk, which is usually used by banks, which used complex financial instruments, or with complex risk profiles. These simulation techniques typically involve detailed assessment of the possible effects of interest rate changes on earnings and economic value simulation of future interest rate movements and their impact on cash flows. In static simulations to estimate cash flows arising solely from the balance sheet and off-balance sheet position of banks. In the dynamic simulation approach, the simulation is based on detailed assumptions about the future course of interest rates and expected changes in the business activities of the bank during this time. These 82 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS na. Te naprednije tehnike omogućavaju dinamičnu interakciju platnih tokova i kamatnih stopa i bolje obuhvaćaju učinak ugrađenih ili eksplicitnih opcija. advanced techniques allow dynamic interaction of payments streams and interest rates and better include the effect of embedded or explicit options. Kompjuterski simulacioni modeli prognoziraju buduće prihode banke na bazi izvjesnosti pretpostavki o budućnosti ekonomskog okruženja i specifičnosti implementiranih odluka o sredstvima i obavezama banke. Neki bankarski modeli zahtijevaju prognozu optimalne veličine i kompozicije bilansa banke. Osjetljivost bilansa banke na promjenu kamatne stope može biti redukovana, možda čak i eliminisana, uspostavljanjem ravnoteže dospijeća na suprotnim stranama bilansa banke. Međutim, ako su očekivanja uvjerljiva da će se kamatna stopa kretati u određenom posebnom pravcu, banka može loše usmjeriti svoj bilans u namjeri da ostvari profit iz takvog razvoja situacije. Zbog toga je projektovanje kamatne stope centralna važnost upravljanja odnosom aktiva - pasiva. Computer simulation models predict future revenues based Bank of certainty assumptions about future economic environment and the specifics of implemented decisions on assets and liabilities of the bank. Some models require the bank forecast the optimal size and composition of its balance sheet. Sensitivity of the bank’s balance sheet to interest rate can be reduced, if not eliminated, by establishing a balance of maturity on opposite sides of bank balance sheets. However, if the expectations are convincing, that the interest rate will be specified in a particular direction, poor grandma can direct your balance in order to make a profit from this development. Therefore, the design of the interest rate the central importance of managing the assets-liabilities ratio. Kompjuterska simulacija i sofisticirana analiza sa matricom odlučivanja omogućavaju razumijevanje menadžment politike rizika kamatne stope. Pri tome treba imati u vidu da simulaciona kompjuterska tehnika nije bez troškova (investicije u hardver, zatim u softver i navike odgovornih lica na novu tehnologiju). Međutim, kad se u banci shvati korist od kompjuterske simulacije, nema banke koja će se vratiti na ranije korišćene ekstenzivne metode. Computer simulation and sophisticated analysis of the decision matrix enables understanding of the management of interest rate policy. However, it should be borne in mind that a computer simulation technique is not without costs (investments in hardware, software, and then the habits of responsible persons to the new technology). However, when the bank realizes the benefits of computer simulations, no bank will return to the previously used extensive methods. GAP analiza osjetljivosti banke na kamatni rizik GAP analysis of the bank’s sensitivity to interest rate risk Vunjak (2006) navodi da, ukoliko ne postoji ravnoteža između kamatno osjetljive aktive i pasive koja je podložna promjenama kamatne stope, kao rezultanta se pojavljuje jaz osjetljiv na kamatnu stopu. Jaz je dio bilansa koji je pogođen kamatnim rizikom. GAP analiza je tradicionalno sredstvo upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope. Upravljanje GAP pozicijom banke podrazumijeva upravljanje kamatno osjetljivom aktivom i kamatno osjetljivom pa- Vunjak (2006) according to if there is a balance between interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities that are subject to interest rate changes, as well as the resultant gap appears sensitive to the interest rate. The gap is part of the balance that is affected by interest rate risk. GAP Analysis is a traditional means of managing interest rate risk. GAP management position of a bank means of interest rate sensitive assets and interest-bearing liabilities 83 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA sivom u cilju ostvarivanja zadovoljavajućeg neto kamatnog prihoda. Neto kamatni prihod i neto kamatna margina su simptomi za upravljanje odnosima aktiva - pasiva. Važno je saznati šta stoji iza tih simptoma koji prouzrokuju „dobre“ i “loše“ performanse. Kamatne stope predstavljaju ključne determinante neto kamatnog prihoda i neto kamatne margine. Menadžment „tim“ banke ima obavezu da vrši kontrolu „GAP“-a bilansa banke, kao odnosa između njene kamatno osjetljive aktive i njene kamatno osjetljive pasive. in order to achieve a satisfactory net interest income. Net interest income and net interest margin are the symptoms of relationship management assets - liabilities. It is important to find out what’s behind these symptoms that cause “good” and “bad” performance. Interest rates are key determinants of net interest income and net interest margin. Management “team” of the bank is required to control the “GAP” a bank’s balance sheet, as well as the relationship between its interest-sensitive assets and its interest-sensitive liabilities. GAP sredstava u bilansu banke se mjere pomoću sljedeće jednačine: GAP assets in the bank’s balance sheet are measured by the following equation: GAP=ISA–ISL pri čemu su: GAP - gep, razmak, jaz, raskorak; ISA - kamatno osjetljiva ili senzitivna aktiva („interest-sensitive assets“); ISL - kamatno osjetljiva ili senzitivna pasiva („interest - sensitive liabilities“). where: GAP gap, gap, gap, gap; ISA interest-sensitive or sensitive assets (“interest-sensitive assets”); ISL - sensitive or interest - sensitive liabilities (“interest - sensitive liabilities”). Kada se banka nalazi u nultoj GAP poziciji, nema opasnosti da će banka biti izložena riziku promjene kamatne stope. Međutim, ova pozicija je više teorijskog karaktera, pošto se u praksi teško može ostvariti. Zato su, sa aspekta bankarske prakse, važnije pozitivna i negativna GAP pozicija. GAP osjetljivost banke na promjenu kamatne stope predstavlja razliku između vrijednosti kamatno osjetljive aktive i kamatno osjetljive pasive banke. When a bank is in position zero GAP, there is no risk that the bank will be exposed to changes in interest rates. However, this position is more theoretical, since in practice it is difficult to achieve. Therefore, from the aspect of banking practice important positive and negative GAP position. GAP of the Bank’s interest rate is the difference between the value of interest-sensitive assets and interest sensitive liabilities. Ako u svakom planiranom periodu (dnevno, sedmično, mjesečno, kvartalno itd.) iznos aktive osjetljive na kamatu premašuje iznos pasive osjetljive na kamatu, a koja podliježe ponovnom formiranju cijene, smatra se da takva institucija ima pozitivan jaz i da je osjetljiva na aktivu. Ukoliko dođe do porasta kamatnih stopa, neto kamatna marža (net - interest margin) banke će se povećati zbog toga što će se prihodi od kamata koje je generisala aktiva banke povećati više nego što će se povećati troškovi posuđenih sredstava. Ako su sve ostale stavke jednake, banka će doživjeti povećanje svog neto prihoda od kamata. S druge strane, ako kamatne stope padnu u periodu kada je banka osjetljiva na aktivu, tada If each planning period (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc.)., The amount of interest rate sensitive assets exceeds the amount of liabilities sensitive to interest rate, which is subject to re-pricing, it is considered that such an institution has a positive gap and is sensitive to the assets . If there is a rise in interest rates, the net interest margin (net interest margin) of the bank will increase because there will be interest income generated by the assets of the bank increased more than it will increase the cost of borrowed funds. If all other items being equal, the bank will experience increasing its net interest income. On the other hand, if interest rates fall at a time when the bank is sensitive to the assets, then 84 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS će se neto kamatna marža banke smanjiti jer prihodi od kamata na aktivu padaju više nego što padaju troškovi vezani uz pasivu. Obrnuto, ako u svakom planiranom periodu (dnevno, sedmično, mjesečno, kvartalno itd.), iznos pasive osjetljive na kamatu premašuje iznos aktive osjetljive na kamatu koja podliježe ponovnom formiranju cijene, smatra se da takva institucija ima negativan jaz i da je osjetljiva na pasivu. Drugim riječima, GAP je negativan ako promjene kamatnih stopa u većoj mjeri utiču na pasivu, što se odražava u većoj mjeri na obaveze nego na plasmane i manifestuje se kao rizik u slučaju rasta kamatne stope. the net interest margin for banks to reduce interest income on assets fall more than falling costs related liabilities. Conversely, if in each planning period (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc.), the amount of liabilities sensitive to interest rate sensitive assets exceeds the amount of interest that is subject to re-pricing, it is considered that such an institution has a negative gap and is vulnerable to passive. In other words, the GAP is negative if the interest rate to a greater extent affect the liabilities, as reflected by a greater extent than the obligations on loans and manifests itself as a risk in the event of a rise in interest rates. Negativan jaz implicira sljedeću situaciju: rastuće kamatne stope će smanjiti neto kamatnu maržu banke zato što će rast troškova koji se odnose na pasivu osjetljivu na kamatu biti veći od rasta prihoda od kamate koji se odnose na aktivu osjetljivu na kamatu. Opadanje kamatnih stopa će dovesti do povećanja neto kamatne marže i prihoda zato što će se troškovi zaduživanja smanjiti više nego prihodi od kamata. U poziciji kada je GAP jednak nuli, odnosno kada ga nema u bilansu, banka nije izložena riziku kamatne stope. Ipak, to je više teorijski moguće, nego što je u praksi zastupljeno. Moguće je utvrditi i koeficijent relativnog IS GAP-a: A negative gap implies the following situation: rising interest rates will reduce the bank’s net interest margin, because the increase in costs related to interest-sensitive liabilities exceed the rate of interest income related to interest-sensitive assets. The decline in interest rates will lead to an increase in net interest margin and income, because it will reduce the cost of borrowing more than interest income. The position where the GAP is zero, ie when it is not in balance, the bank is not exposed to interest rate risk. However, it is more theoretically possible, but which in practice is represented. It is possible to determine the coefficient of relative IS GAP: Relativni IS GAP = IS GAP / ukupna veličina banke Relative GAP IS = IS GAP / total size of banks pri čemu se veličina banke mjeri iznosom ukupne aktive. Relativni IS GAP veći od nule znači da je institucija osjetljiva na aktivu, dok negativni relativni IS GAP ukazuje na osjetljivost finansijske institucije na pasivu. Ukoliko su nam dostupni podaci o ukupnom iznosu kamatno osjetljive aktive i podaci o veličini pasive osjetljive na kamatu, možemo izračunati i pokazatelj kamatne osjetljivosti (koeficijent rizika kamatne stope). Stoga, GAP se može izraziti i koeficijentom rizika kamatne stope, koji se izračunava pomoću sljedeće jednačine: with the size of the bank measured the amount of total assets. Relative GAP IS greater than zero means that the institution is sensitive assets, while negative relative GAP IS indicates the sensitivity of the liabilities of financial institutions. If we have data available on the total amount of interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities of the data on the size of the interest-sensitive, we can calculate an indicator of the interest sensitivity (ratio of interest rate risk). Therefore, the GAP can be expressed and the coefficient of interest rate risk, which is calculated by the following equation: 85 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA gdje je: i = koeficijent rizika kamatne stope, RSL = kamatno osjetljiva aktiva, RSL = kamatno osjetljiva pasiva. U slučaju da je “i” manji od 1, radi se o finansijskoj instituciji osjetljivoj na pasivu, dok “i” veći od 1, označava finansijsku instituciju osjetljivu na aktivu. where: i = coefficient of interest rate risk, RSL = interest-bearing assets, RSL = interest-bearing liabilities. If the “and” is less than 1 it is a financial institution sensitive to the liabilities, while “and” greater than 1 indicates a financial institution-sensitive assets. U praksi, nulti jaz ne otklanja cjelokupni kamatni rizik, budući da kamatne stope koje se odnose na aktivu i pasivu, u realnim okolnostima, nisu u savršenoj korelaciji. Na primjer, kamatne stope na kredite imaju tendenciju zaostajanja za kamatnim stopama koje su zaračunate na izvore sredstava. Tako prihodi banke koje produkuju kamatne stope opadaju brže od troškova tokom ekonomske ekspanzije, dok se kamatni troškovi brže smanjuju od prihoda tokom ekonomskih kretanja prema nižim nivoima cijena. Metode određivanja jaza zahtijevaju od uprave banke donošenje važnih odluka: (1) izbor perioda tokom kojeg će se upravljati neto kamatnom maržom banke i određivanje subperioda na koje se planirani period treba podijeliti, (2) odabir ciljnog nivoa za neto kamatne marže, što znači da li treba zamrznuti maržu na nivou na kojem se trenutno nalazi ili je želi uvećati, (3) ukoliko želi uvećati postojeći nivo neto kamatne marže, mora precizno predvidjeti kretanje kamatnih stopa, ili pronaći način za ponovnu alokaciju prihodonosne aktive i pasive da bi se povećala razlika između prihoda od kamata i kamatnih troškova, (4) mora utvrditi novčani volumen aktive osjetljive na kamatu i pasive osjetljive na kamatu. In practice, the zero gap does not eliminate the overall interest rate risk, as the interest rates that apply to assets and liabilities, in the real world, are not perfectly correlated. For example, interest rates on loans tend to lag behind the interest rates which are invoiced to the sources of funds. Thus, income-producing bank interest rates are falling faster than costs during the economic boom, while interest expenses decreased faster than revenues during the economic trends to lower price levels. Methods for determination of the demand gap of the bank making important decisions: (1) the choice of time during which the managed net interest margin and bank subperioda determination that the planned period should be divided, (2) selecting the target level of net interest margin, which means whether to freeze the margin at a level that is currently or wishes to increase, and (3) if it is to increase the current level of net interest margin, must accurately predict the movement of interest rates, or find a way to re-allocation of assets and liabilities, income-to increase the difference between interest income and interest expense, (4) must determine the volume of cash in interest-sensitive assets and liabilities sensitive to interest. Ukoliko želimo odrediti ukupnu izloženost banke riziku kamatne stope, kao korisnu mjeru primjenjujemo kumulativni jaz. Kumulativni jaz je ukupna razlika u novčanim iznosima između aktive i pasive banke kojima se tokom određenog perioda može promijeniti cijena. If we want to determine the total bank exposure to interest rate risk as a useful measure apply the cumulative gap. Cumulative gap is the total difference in the amount between the assets and liabilities of the bank which over a period of time can change the price. Koncept kumulativnog jaza omogućava da, uz bilo koju promjenu tržišnih kamatnih stopa, možemo izračunati približno na koji način će ta promjena uticati na neto prihod banke od kamata. Odnos se izračunava na sljedeći način: The concept of cumulative gap to obtain, with any changes in market interest rates, we can calculate approximately how the change will affect the net interest income of the bank. The ratio is calculated as follows: 86 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS Promjena neto prihoda banke od kamata = Ukupna promjena kamatnih stopa u postotnim bodovima / Veličina kumulativnog jaza u novčanim jedinicama. Change in net interest income of the bank = Total change in interest rates in percentage points / cumulative size of the gap in monetary units Da bi se zaštitila od porasta kamatnih stopa i eliminisala prijeteći gubitak u prihodima, banka vrši razmješta dio aktive i dio pasive kako bi se smanjila veličina kumulativnog jaza, ili koristi instrumente za hedžiranje. Banke koje imaju negativan kumulativni jaz, koristiće opadanje kamatnih stopa, što će opet rezultirati smanjivanjem neto prihoda od kamata kada kamate porastu. Banke sa pozitivnim kumulativnim jazom iskoristiće rast kamatnih stopa, ali njihov se neto prihod smanjuje ako su podložne padu kamatnih stopa. Neke banke svjesno manipulišu svojim kamatno osjetljivim jazom, tako da su ili osjetljive na aktivu ili pasivu, što zavisi od stepena povjerenja u sopstvena predviđanja kretanja kamatnih stopa. Takvo djelovanje se često naziva agresivno upravljanje jazom. In order to protect against rising interest rates and eliminate the threatening loss of income, the bank carries out the deployment share of assets and some liabilities to reduce the size of the cumulative gap, or instruments used for hedging. Banks with a negative cumulative gap will use decline in interest rates which in turn will result in a reduction in net interest income when interest rates rise. Banks with positive cumulative gap will use higher interest rates, but their net income is reduced if they are subject to lower interest rates. Some banks deliberately manipulate their interest sensitive gap, so that they are either sensitive to the assets or liabilities, depending on the degree of confidence in their own predictions of interest rates. Such action is often called aggressive management gap. Duration model mjerenja kamatnog rizika Duration model for measuring interest rate risk Prethodno se govorilo o jazu osjetljivom na kamatu koji izlaže banke mogućnosti gubitka u odnosu na maržu neto kamate banke, kao i mogućnosti smanjenja marže uslijed promjena u tržišnim kamatnim stopama. Promjenljive kamatne stope takođe mogu ugroziti još jedan aspekt poslovanja banke – njenu neto vrijednost, vrijednost investicija vlasnika kapitala banke. Kada je marža neto kamate zaštićena od kamatnog rizika, to ne znači da je i neto vrijednost banke zaštićena od gubitka. Da bi se i to postiglo, treba primijeniti još jedan metod upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope – upravljanje jazom trajanja. Trajanje je vrijednosna i vremenska mjera dospijeća koja podrazumijeva vremenski aspekt svih priliva gotovine od prihodovne aktive, kao i svih odliva gotovine vezanih za pasivu. Trajanje je i mjera prosjeka dospijeća očekivanih budućih gotovinskih plaćanja. Ćurčić (2010) definiše trajanje kao mjeru prosječnog vremena koje je potrebno za naplatu sredstava uloženih u jednu investiciju. Previously discussed were sensitive to interest rate gap that exposes the bank possibilities of loss to the bank net interest margins, as well as opportunities to reduce margins due to changes in market interest rates. Variable interest rates may also undermine another aspect of the bank – its net worth, the value of shareholders investment bank. When the net interest margin is being protected from interest rate risk does not mean that the net value of the bank is protected from loss. In order to achieve this and, should apply another method of managing interest rate risk - management gap duration. Duration is a value measure of maturity and time that includes the time aspect of the cash inflows from revenue assets, as well as all cash outflows related liabilities. Duration is a measure of the average maturity of the expected future cash payments. Curcic (2010) defined as the measure of the average length of time required for the collection of funds invested in a single investment. Life cy87 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA Model životnog vijeka bilansnih pozicija ili duration model se zasniva na analizi ponderisanih prosječnih rokova dospijeća plasmana i obaveza banke. Pri tome je važno istaći da je za analizu rizika kamatne stope najvažnije to što životni vijek ima inverznu linearnu vezu sa osjetljivošću cijena na promjene kamatne stope. To nije slučaj sa rokom dospijeća. Vunjak (2006) konstatuje da duži životni vijek znači veću osjetljivost cijene plasmana na promjene kamatne stope i obrnuto, kraći životni vijek znači da promjene kamatne stope u manjoj mjeri utiču na cijenu plasmana. cle model of balance sheet items or duration model is based on an analysis of weighted average maturities of assets and liabilities of the bank. It is important to emphasize that the analysis of interest rate risk important, the life expectancy has an inverse linear relationship with price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. Not so with maturity. Vunjak (2006) notes that longer life expectancy means greater sensitivity of loans to changes in interest rates and, conversely, a shorter life expectancy means that the interest rate changes to a lesser extent, affect the price of loans. Analiza životnog vijeka koristi se za mjerenje izloženosti banke riziku kamatne stope. Postupak se svodi na to da se izračunava životni vijek svih bilansnih pozicija u aktivi i pasivi banke da bi se sagledao uticaj promjena kamatne stope na njihove vrijednosti. Pri tome treba imati u vidu da je vrijednost bilansnih pozicija banke obrnuto proporcionalna njihovom životnom vijeku i promjenama kamatnih stopa i da je za sve bilansne pozicije banke koje karakteriše veći broj plaćanja životni vijek kraći od roka dospjeća. Vunjak (2006) objašnjava da GAP osjetljivost banke na promjene kamatne stope se dobija kao razlika „životnog vijeka“ aktive i „životnog vijeka“ pasive banke. I kod ovog modela GAP može biti pozitivan (aktiva banke ima duži životni vijek od pasive banke), tj. kada je aktiva banke osjetljivija od pasive na promjene kamatne stope. U obrnutom slučaju, negativan GAP će imati banka sa dužim „životnim vijekom“ pasive. Up2 slučaju da je „životni vijek“ aktive i pasive banke jednak, GAP je jednak nuli. Standardna formula za izračunavanje trajanja pojedinačnog finansijskog instrumenta, kao što su depozit, kredit, vrijednosni papir ili nedepozitna zaduživanja glasi: Life cycle analysis is used to measure the bank’s exposure to interest rate risk. The procedure is tantamount to calculating the lifetime of balance sheet positions in assets and liabilities grandmother, to gauge the impact of changes in interest rates on their values. It should be noted that the value of the balance sheet position of banks is inversely proportional to their lifetime and interest rate and the balance sheet positions of all the banks that are characterized by a number of payment service life is shorter than maturity. Vunjak (2006) explains that GAP of the Bank’s interest rate is obtained as the difference between “life” of assets and “life” liabilities. And in this model, GAP can be positive (the bank’s assets have a longer life expectancy of the liabilities of the bank), ie. when the bank’s assets than liabilities sensitive to interest rate changes. Conversely, a negative GAP will have a bank with a longer “life span” of liabilities. In the event that the “lifetime” of assets and liabilities of the bank equal, GAP is equal to zero. The standard formula for calculating the duration of a single financial instrument, such as deposits, loans, securities or non-deposit borrowings as follows: gdje „D“ predstavlja trajanje određenog instrumenta po godinama, „t“ predstavlja vremenski period u kojem treba ostvariti tok gotovine po where “D” is the length of an instrument for years, “t” represents the time period in which to achieve cash flow for a financial 88 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS nekom finansijskom instrumentu, „E(CFt)“ predstavlja obim svake očekivane gotovine u svakom vremenskom periodu (t), a „YTM“ je tekući prinos do dospijeća određenog instrumenta. Ova formula se može pojednostaviti: instrument, “E(CFt)” represents the volume of each expected cash each time period (t), and “YTM “the current yield to maturity of an instrument. This formula can be simplified: gdje je: TCt - tekuća tržišna cijena. Poznato je da vrijedi K=A–L , tj. da neto vrijednost nekog preduzeća označava razliku njegove aktive i pasive. Sa promjenom tržišnih kamatnih stopa dolazi do promjene aktive i pasive banaka, što dovodi do promjena neto vrijednosti ∆K=∆A-∆L. Portfolio teorija u finansijama znači: where: TCt-current market price. It is known that k=A-L, ie. the net value of a company means the difference of its assets and liabilities. With the change in market interest rates, a change of assets and liabilities of banks, leading to changes in the net value ΔK=Aa-ΔL. Portfolio theory in finance means: 1. porast tržišnih kamatnih stopa uzrokuje opadanje tržišne vrijednosti aktive i pasive koje imaju fiksnu stopu, 1. an increase in market interest rates caused the decline of the market value of assets and liabilities that have a fixed rate, 2. što je dalje dospijeće aktive i pasive banke, veća je mogućnost opadanja tržišne vrijednosti aktive i pasive sa rastom tržišnih kamatnih stopa. 2. as far as the maturity of assets and liabilities of the bank, the greater the possibility of decreasing the market value of assets and liabilities, with the rise in market interest rates. Promjena u neto vrijednosti će uslijed promjenljivih kamatnih stopa varirati u zavisnosti od odgovarajućih dospijeća aktive i pasive banke. Analiza trajanja može se koristiti radi stabilizovanja, imunizacije tržišne vrijednosti neto vrijednosti banke (K). Change in net worth due to changing interest rates vary depending on the respective maturities of assets and liabilities of the bank. Analysis of duration may be used to stabilize, immunization market value of the net value of the bank (K). ARBL model mjerenja kamatnog rizika ARBL model for measuring interest rate risk ARBL od „asset repriced before liabilities“ je model mjerenja kamatnog rizika kod kojeg je ključni elemenat kategorizacija svih bilansnih pozicija banke prema vremenu do određivanja novih kamatnih stopa, što se uvijek ne podudara sa rokom dospijeća pojedinih blokova aktive i pasive. Izuzetak su samo bilansne pozicije sa ugovorenim (fiksnim) kamatnim stopama. Za svaku kategoriju u bilansu se izračunava neto bilans, kao razlika između plasmana i obaveza. Ovi neto bilansi mogu biti pozitivni, negativni i jednaki nuli. Pozitivan GAP je kad je razlika u korist aktive, ARBL of “asset repriced before liabilities” is the interest rate risk measurement model in which a key element of the categorization of all balance sheet position of banks on time to determine the new interest rate, which does not always coincide with the maturity of individual blocks of assets and liabilities. The only exception are the balance sheet to the contractual position (fixed) interest rates. For each category in the statement of net income is calculated as the difference between assets and liabilities. These net balances can be positive, negative and zero. GAP is positive when the difference in favor of assets, 89 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA negativan kad su razlike u korist pasive i nulti kad razlike nema. negative when the difference in the liabilities and zero when there is no difference. Vunjak (2006) navodi da je model korisna analitička kategorija, ali ima i svoje nedostatke. Polazi od pretpostavke da se aktivne i pasivne kamatne stope kreću ravnomjerno, što nije realno, a i ne daje bilansno sintetičku ocjenu izloženosti banke riziku kamatne stope. Radi jasnoće, predstavićemo primjer primjene ARBL modela na jednom hipotetičnom bilansu banke, koji je podijeljen na 10 kategorija (korpi) sredstava. Broj kategorija, odnosno korpi određuje menadžment tim banke rukovodeći se prioritetima planskog horizonta. Pri tome su najvažniji periodi do godinu dana, za koje je moguće dati realnije i preciznije projekcije kretanja visine kamatnih stopa. Menadžment tim banke je bilans banke podijelio na 10 kategorija sredstava i izvora sredstava: od 1 mjesec, od 2 mjeseca, od 3 mjeseca, od 4 do 6 mjeseci, od 7 do 12 mjeseci, od 18 mjeseci, od 2 godine, od 3 godine, od 5 godina i preko 10 godina. Banka ima negativan neto bilans u: četvrtoj, petoj, sedmoj, osmoj, devetoj i desetoj kategoriji. U tim kategorijama kamatne stope će se mijenjati za veći dio pasive nego aktive. S obzirom na to da se radi o dužim rokovima dospijeća (od 4 do 6 mj., od 7 do 12 mj., od 2 god.,od 3 god., od 5 god., preko 10 god.), banci bi odgovarao rast kamatnih stopa. Razlog tome je u činjenici da će se sredstva (zbog kraćih rokova dospijeća) brže replasirati po višim kamatnim stopama, dok će se obaveze (u kojima dominiraju duži rokovi mijenjanja kamatnih stopa) sporije obnavljati po višim kamatnim stopama. Vunjak (2006) according to the model is a useful analytical category, but it has its drawbacks. Based on the assumption that active and passive interest rates moving uniformly, which is not realistic, and not giving a synthetic evaluation of on-balance sheet exposures to interest rate risk. For clarity, prestavićemo ARBL model example of the application of a hypothetical bank’s balance sheet, which is divided into 10 categories (bins) funds. The number of categories, or bins determines the management team of the Bank is guided by the priorities of the planning horizon. At the same time the most important periods of the year, for which it is possible to give a more realistic and accurate projections of interest rates. The management team of the bank is the bank balance of 10 categories divided the assets and resources: 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, 4 to 6 months 7 to 12 months, 18 months, 2 years, 3 years , 5 years, and over 10 years. The bank has a negative net income in the fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth category. In those categories, the interest rate will be changed for the better part of liabilities than assets. Since this is a longer maturities (from 4 to 6 months., From 7 to 12 months., 2 yrs., From 3 years., Of 5 years., Over 10 yrs.), Bank to match the growth of interest rate. The reason for this is the fact that the funds (due to shorter maturities) replasirati faster at higher interest rates, while the liabilities (dominated by longer periods altering interest rates) slowly renewed at higher interest rates. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Banke moraju imati sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se obuhvataju svi značajni izvori kamatnog rizika i procjenjuju učinci promjena kamatnih stopa u skladu s obimom aktivnosti banaka. Ti sistemi treba da pruže razumljive poka- Banks should have a system for measuring interest rate risk which include all significant sources of interest rate risk and assess the effects of changes in interest rates in line with the scope of banks’ activities. These systems should provide com- 90 B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS zatelje trenutnog nivoa izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku i moraju biti sposobni da identifikuju svaku eventualnu prekomjernu izloženost. U radu su objašnjena nekoliko modela mjerenja izloženosti kamatnom riziku: kompjuterske simulacije, analiza GAP-a, analiza jaza vijeka trajanja i ARBL model. Kompjuterski modeli simulacije su napredniji modeli za mjerenje kamatnog rizika i budućnost mjerenja kamatnog rizika. Koristi od njih što se politika banke može bazirati na prihvatljivoj varijanti nivoa rizika kamatne stope i što alternativne solucije problema rizika kamatne stope mogu biti evaluirane korišćenjem modela matrice za donošenje odluke o izboru strategije upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope. Osnovni destimulišući faktor koji odbija banke od primjene ovog modela su visoki troškovi i ulaganja u hardver, softver i navike odgovornih lica na novu tehnologiju. Model GAP osjetljivosti banke na kamatni rizik je jednostavan metod mjerenja kamatnog rizika jer se njime izražava razlika između visine kamatno osjetljive aktive i kamatno osjetljive pasive za jedan određeni vremenski period, koji se fokusira na uticaj tog jaza na neto kamatnu maržu banke bez detaljnijih analiza implikacija na neto vrijednost banke. Da bi se nadomjestio taj nedostatak, primjenjuje se duration model mjerenja kamatnog rizika, koji se zasniva na analizi ponderisanih prosječnih rokova dospijeća plasmana i obaveza banke. Postupak se svodi na to da se izračunava životni vijek svih bilansnih pozicija u aktivi i pasivi banke da bi se sagledao uticaj promjena kamatne stope na njihove vrijednosti. ARBL model mjerenja kamatnog rizika je jedna vrsta mjerenja GAP osjetljivosti na kamatni rizik i predstavlja kategorizaciju svih bilansnih pozicija banke prema vremenu do određivanja novih kamatnih stopa. Nedostatak mu je što polazi od pretpostavke da se aktivne i pasivne kamatne stope kreću ravnomjerno, što je nerealno, a i ne daje bilansno sintetičku ocjenu izloženosti banke riziku kamatne stope. prehensible indicators of the current level of the bank’s exposure to interest rate risk and must be able to identify any possible over-exposure. The paper presents several models of measurement of interest rate risk: computer simulation analysis of GAP, gap analysis and life ARBL model. Computer simulation models are more advanced models for the measurement of interest rate risk and future measurement of interest rate risk. Use of them as the bank’s policy to be based on an acceptable version levels of interest rate risk and the alternative solutions the problem of interest rate risk can be evaluated using the model matrix for deciding on the strategy for managing interest rate risk. The main deterrent factor that the bank refuses the application of this model is the high cost and investment in hardware, software, and habits of responsible persons to the new technology. GAP model of the Bank’s interest rate risk is a simple method of measuring interest rate risk because it expresses the difference between the amount of interest rate sensitive assets and interest sensitive liabilities for a specified period of time, focusing on the impact of this gap on the net interest margin banks without detailed analysis of the implications of net value of the bank. To compensate for the lack of applicable duration model for measuring interest rate risk, which is based on an analysis of weighted average maturities of assets and liabilities of the bank. The procedure is tantamount to calculating the lifetime of balance sheet positions in assets and liabilities grandmother, to gauge the impact of changes in interest rates on their values. ARBL model for measuring interest rate risk is a type of measurement GAP sensitivity to interest rate risk and the categorization of all balance sheet position of banks on time to determine the new interest rate. The lack of it is that based on the assumption that active and passive interest rates moving steadily, which is unrealistic, and not giving a synthetic evaluation of on-balance sheet exposures to interest rate risk. 91 B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA LITERATURA LITERATURE Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (2004). Načela za upravljanje i nadzor nad kamatnim rizikom. Bazel: Banka za međunarodna poravnanja. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004). Principles for the management and supervision of interest rate risk. Basel: Bank for International Settlements Ćurčić, U. (2010). Upravljanje aktivom i pasivom banaka. Sarajevo: Ekonomski fakultet. Ćurčić, U. (2010). Asset and liability management of banks. Sarajevo: Ekonomski fakultet. Ćurčić, U. (2010). Upravljanje sredstvima i obavezama banke. Sarajevo: Ekonomski fakultet Curcic, U. (2010). Asset and liability management of banks. Sarajevo: Ekonomski fakultet. Ćurčić, U. (2002). Bankarski portfolio menadžment (drugo prošireno i prerađeno izdanje). Novi Sad: Feljton. Ćurčić, U. (2002). The banking portfolio management (expanded and revised second edition). Novi Sad: Feljton. Jović, S. (1990). Bankarstvo. Beograd: Naučna knjiga. Jović, S. (1990). Banking. Belgrade: Beograd: Naučna knjiga. Krstić, B. (2003). Bankarstvo. Niš: Ekonomski fakultet. Krstić, B. (2003). Banking. Niš: Ekonomski fakultet. Rose, S. P. (2005). Menadžment komercijalnih banaka. Zagreb: Mate. Rose, S., P. (2005). Management of Commercial Banks. Zagreb: Mate Rodić, J. (1991). Poslovne finansije. Beograd: Ekonomika. Rodić, J. (1991). Business Finance. Beograd: Ekonomika. Vasiljević, B. (1990). Rizici u bankarstvu. Beograd: Fokus. Vasiljević, B. (1990) Risks in the banking industry. Beograd: Fokus. Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2006). Bankarstvo - Bankarski menađžment. Subotica. Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2006). Bankarstvo - Bankarski menađžment Subotica Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2009). Finansijska tržišta i berze. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2009). Financial markets and stock exchanges. Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet. 92 MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI - ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU EKONOMIJU I IZVOZNO BRENDIRANJE? “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY - WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL ECONOMY AND EXPORT BRANDING? Dr Vladan Nastić* Alumil Alpro Vlasenica Izvorni naučni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301008N, UDK 339.564:[659.127.8:336.71 Original scientific paper REZIME SUMMARY Proces globalizacije je otvorio čitav niz pitanja u modernoj ekonomskoj nauci i praksi. Otvorena pitanja zahtijevaju jasne odgovore i odgovarajuće akcije kako bi se mogli prilagoditi novom okruženju koje je određeno globalizacijom. Cilj ovog rada je da da odgovore na pitanja: Koliko ima smisla nacionalno brendiranje u uslovima globalizacije i međunarodne vertikalne proizvodne integracije? Na osnovu istraživanja nameće se potreba za pažljivijim vođenjem spoljnotrgovinske politike od strane vlade, a, posebno, u kreiranju nacionalnih brendova i podršci pri izvoznom brendiranju. Novo okruženje zahtijeva novi pristup u upravljanju nacionalnim brendovima. Pažljivom kombinacijom dva koncepta (“Made in” i “Made by”) obezbjeđuje se dovoljno prostora za izvozno brendiranje. Glavni problem je kako podržati sektor prerađivačke industrije i kako kombinovati privatne i nacionalne brendove? Process of globalization opened a large number of issues in modern economic science and practice. Opened questions require clear answers and appropriate response in order to be able to adapt to the new environment defined by globalization. The aim of this paper is to provide an answer to the question: How much is the national branding meaningful in terms of globalization and international vertical integration of production? From the results of research performed is a need for careful management of foreign trade policy of the government, and especially in creating and supporting of national export branding. New environment requires a new approach to managing national brands. Careful combination of two concepts (“Made in” and “Made by”) provides enough space for export branding. Main problem is how to support manufacturing sector, how to combine private and national brands? Ključne riječi: nacionalni brendovi, izvozno brendiranje, globalizacija, trgovinska politika. Keywords: national brands, export branding, globalization, trade policy UVOD INTRODUCTION Koliko putа smo kupili proizvod o kome smo imаli nedovoljno informаcijа sаmo zbog oznаke made in, ili koliko putа smo odustаli od kupovine zbog pomenutih oznаkа, а sve nа bаzi nаšeg subjektivnog stаvа o zemlji porijeklа proizvodа. Situacija je slična i kod privatnih brendova, a, naročito, kod proizvoda koje kupujemo prvi put. U How many times have we bought a product that we do not have enough information about only on basis label “Made in”, or how many times we gave up buying because of these labels, all based on our subjective view on the country of origin of the product. The situation is similar for private labels, especially for products that we buy 93 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... većini slučajeva ćemo se opredijeliti za proizvode sa brendom za koji imamo formiran stav ne ulazeći u pažljviju analizu ponude. Kombinovanjem privatnog i nacionalnog brenda naše opredjeljenje za određeni proizvod postaje jače. Odlukа o kupovini nije donijetа nа osnovu nаše objektivne spoznаje o bitnim kаrаkteristikаmа proizvodа, već nа osnovu nаšeg subjektivnog stаvа premа zemlji porijeklа ili pak stava o privatnom brendu. Naravno, naše opredjeljenje za određeni brend može biti zasnovano i na prethodnom pozitivnom ili negativnom iskustvu sa proizvodima. U daljoj analizi problema fokus ćemo primarno zadržati na nacionalnim brendovima. for the first time. In most cases, we will opt for products with the brand for which we have a position on the issue without going to analyze offer carefully. By combining private and national brands our commitment for specific product gets stronger. The decision to buy is made on the basis of our objective knowledge of the essential characteristics of the product, but based on our subjective attitude towards the country of origin or the attitude of the private brand. Of course, our commitment to a brand can be based on the previous positive or negative experience with the products. For further analysis of the problem we will primarily keep focus on the national brands. Kako bismo ilustrovali suštinu problema, poslužićemo se sa nekoliko hipotetičkih primjera: To illustrate the essence of the problem we will use a few hypothetical examples: 1. Odlučili smo se za kupovinu feta sira. Pošto se radi o proizvodu sa zaštićemnim geografskim porijeklom, mogli smo da kupimo feta sir nekog grčkog proizvođača, ili njegovu kopiju od proizvođača iz drugih zemalja pod drugim nazivom, ali naše opredjeljenje je da kupimo fetu. Da li je ta feta grčka? Evidentno je da je proizvedena u Grčkoj, pošto se radi o zaštićenom geografskom porijeklu. U kontekstu globalne ekonomije, moguće je da je sir proizveden od mlijeka u prahu koje je uvezeno iz Danske. Ako tome dodamo i činjenicu da je navedeni sir proizveden u pogonima multinacionalne kompanije „MEGGLE“, onda se postavlja pitanje u kojoj mjeri taj sir može nositi oznaku „made in Greece“? Možemo zaključiti da je taj sir grčki samo onim dijelom kolika je proporcionalna vrijendost angažovanog grčkog rada u vrijednosti finalnog proizvoda. Najrealnije bi bilo da kupljena feta može da nosi oznaku „made by Meggle“ ili „made by x capital“. Ko ima najveću korist od upotrebe brenda feta? 1. We decided to buy Feta cheese. Since it is a product with protected geographical origin we could buy Feta cheese from Greek producers, or copy of the manufacturers of other countries under different name, but our commitment is to buy Feta. Is Feta Greek? There is evident that it is produced in Greece, as protected geographical origin. In the context of the global economy, it is possible that cheese is made from milk powder that was imported from Denmark. If we add the fact that the aforementioned cheese is produced in the plants of multinational companies “MEGGLE,” then the question is to what extent the cheese can be labeled “made in Greece”? We can conclude it is Greek cheese only in level of value engaged work in final product. The most realistic would be Feta cheese can be labeled “made by Meggle” or “made by x capital”. Who has the greatest benefit from the use of brand Feta? 2. Kupujemo deterdžent za pranje rublja i naša odluka je Henkelov „Persil“. Takvu odluku smo donijeli na osnovu našeg uvjerenja da Henkel obezbjeđuje vrhunski kvalitet. Oznaka zemlje porijekla, 2. We bought laundry detergent and our decision was Henkel “Persil”. We made such decision based on our belief that Henkel provides superior quality. Label the country of 94 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... tj. „made in Serbia“ nam nije bila ni od kakve važnosti pošto je naše povjerenje u Henkel potpuno. U ovom primjeru imamo da je privatni brend, tj. „Henkel“ mnogo jači od nacionalnog označavanja, tj. u ovakvom slučaju nacionalno označavanje nema nikakav smisao u kontekstu podrške privatnom brendu. „Persil“ je proizveden u Srbiji uz upotrebu sirovina iz Henkelovih postrojenja širom svijeta. Takođe, znanje ugrađeno u „Persil“ nije rezultat srpskog razvoja, nego njemačkog. Najzačajniji proizvodni faktor kapital nije srpskog porijekla. Sumirajući ove činjenice, ne možemo reći da je „Persil“ proizveden u Henkelovim pogonima u Srbiji, srpski proizvod. „Persil“ je „made by Henkel“. origin ie. “Made in Serbia” has not been of no importance because our confidence in the Henkel brand. In this example, we have a brand that is private. The national mark has no any importance in the context of supporting the private brand. “Persil” is made in Serbia, with the use of raw materials from Henkel plants worldwide. Also, the knowledge embedded in the “Persil” is not the result of Serbian development, but German. The most significant factor of production is capital that is not Serbian. Summarizing these facts, we cannot say that “Persil” is produced by Henkel in Serbia, Serbian product. “Persil” is “made by Henkel.” 3. Donijeli smo odluku da kupimo računar IBM kupujući američki kvalitet i prestižnu tehnologiju, a ne računar sa brendom kineske kompanije, mada drugi ima značajno nižu cijenu i raspolaže sa boljim performansama. Međutim, i jedan i drugi računar nose oznaku „made in China“. Ako detaljnije analiziramo ovu situaciju, onda ćemo uvidjeti da su oba računara razvijena u silikonskoj dolini u USA, sklapaju se u istim proizvodnim postrojenjima u Kini, uz korištenje uvoznih komponenti od istih proizvođača iz Japana, Južne Koreje i Tajvana. Razlika između ova dva računara je u tržišnoj vrijednosti privatnog Brenda, a što se reflektuje na maloprodajnu cijenu. Koji je od ova dva računara više kineski ili više američki? 3. We made decision to buy IBM PC buying American quality and prestigious technology and not a computer brand with Chinese companies, while the other has much lower price and has better performance. However, both computers are labeled “made in China”. If we analyze further this situation, we will see that both computers were developed in Silicon Valley in the USA, assembled in the same manufacturing facilities in China, with use of imported components from the same manufacturer from Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The difference between two computers in the market is value of pri-vate brands, and that is reflected in the retail price. Which of these two com-puters are more Chinese or more American? 4. Opredijelili smo se za ljetovanje u Turskoj u hotelu sa vrhunskom uslugom. Naravno, hotel je lociran u Turskoj na truskim plažama, ali je vlasnik hotela francuska kompanija. U hotelu se služe hrana i piće čije je porijeklo iz evropskih država i to primarno iz zemalja EU. Njaveći dio opreme u hotelu je evropskog porijekla. Kupili smo tursku destinaciju za odmor, ali smo u maloj mjeri dobili tursku uslugu. 4. We are committed to holidays in Turkey at the hotel with top service. Of course, the hotel is located at Turkey beaches, but the owner of the hotel is French company. The hotel serves food and drink, which originate from European countries and particularly from the EU. Most of the equipment in hotel is European origin. We bought Turkish holiday destination, but we got small degree of Turkish service. 95 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... Ovakvih kontroverznih primjera bismo mogli navesti još monogo, ali je cilj bio da se ilustruje kompleksnost problema sa kojim se suočavamo u nacionalnom brendiranju. Nacionalni brend je višedimenzionalna kategorija koja se ne ograničava samo na izvoz proizvoda i usluga. Poznato je da se on kreira i koristi u svrhu promovisanja zemlje kao investicione destinacije, ali i za promovisanje nacionalne kulture. Vrlo često se kreiraju privatni brendovi koji svojim semantičkim izrazom ukazuju na zemlju porijekla, stvarajući logičku vezu između proizvoda i imidža zemlje. Zabilježeni su slučajevi da su kompanije van Italije koristile italijanske nazive kako bi kupca asocirali na prestižan italijanski dizajn, mada u suštini nemaju nikakvu vezu sa Italijom. Takođe, postoje slučajevi asociranja na Japan (savremena elektronska tehnologija), na Njemačku (visok nivo kvaliteta), itd. Prije nego što pristupimo daljnoj analizi, dajemo nekoliko osnovnih napomena o brendu, nacionalnom brendu i nacionalnom imidžu. Domen našeg razmatranja je nacionalno brendiranje u kontekstu promocije izvoza proizvoda i usluga. U prethodnim hipotetičkim primjerima poistovjećeno je nacionalno označavanje sa nacionalnim brendiranjem, a ovakav pristup je zadržan i u daljem tekstu. Razlog positovjećivanja je u tome što nacionalno brendiranje razmatramo u kontekstu promovisanja izvoza. Nacionalno označavanje je dobrovoljna aktivnost i ono nam daje jasnu informaciju o porijeklu robe. Označavanjem se jasno ukazuje na nacionalno porijeklo robe, a, istovremeno, se uspostavlja veza sa nacionalnim brendom ili brendovima. Such controversial examples might indicate there is still much, but the goal was to illustrate the complexity of the problems we face in the national branding. National brand is multidimensional category, which is not limited to the export of products and services. It is known that it is created and used for the purpose of promoting the country as an investment destination, but also for the promotion of national culture. Very often we meet with created private brands whose semantic expression indicates the country of origin, creating a logical connection between the product and the image of the country. There have been cases of companies outside Italy using Italian names for customers associated to the prestigious Italian design, but in fact, they have nothing to do with Italy. There are also cases of association of Japan (modern electronic technology), of Germany (high quality), and so on. Before we move on further analysis we give some basic note of the brand, a national brand and national image. Domain of our consideration is a national branding in the context of the promotion of exports of goods and services. In the previous hypothetical examples we identified the national labeling with national branding, and this approach has been retained in the text below. Reason for identification is that national branding discussed in the context of promoting exports. The national designation is a voluntary activity, and it gives us a clear statement of origin. The labeling clearly indicates the national origin of goods, while simultaneously establishes the connection with national brand or brands. NACIONALNI IMIDŽ I NACIONALNI BREND NATIONAL IMAGE AND NATIONAL BRAND Imidž zemlje je kompleksnа kаtegorijа čijа аdekvаtnа izgrаdnjа zаhtijevа dobro plаnirаne, osmišljene i koordinisаne аktivnosti. Problem mjerenja imidža zemlje se rješava rangiranjem, tako da danas imamo nekoliko ranglisti koje daju različite rezultate u rejtingu zemlje. Pomenućemo dvije rangliste: Image of the country is a complex category with adequate building requires well planned, designed and coordinated activities. The problem of measurement of national image is solved by country ranking, so now we have several rankings which give different results in the rating of the country. We shall 96 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... Anholtov National Brand Index (NBI) i EastWest Golbal Index 200. Ovа dvа indeksа su rаzličito struktuirаnа i koriste rаzličite ulаzne informаcije tаko dа dаju i rаzličite rezultаte u rаngirаnju zemаljа. mention two rankings: Anholtov National Brand Index (NBI) and the East-West Golbal Index 200. These two indices are structured differently and use different inputs which give different results in ranking of countries. Mаrtin i Eroglu (1993) pod imidžom zemlje smаtrаju skup svih opisnih i informаcionih vjerovаnjа koje pojedinаc imа o određenoj zemlji. Thаkor i Kаtsаnis (1997) imidž zemlje definišu kаo skup znаnjа o аsocijаcijаmа rаzličite kompleksnosti i snаge o određenoj zemlji. Ove аsocijаcije podrаzumijevаju i izgrаđene stereotipe o zemlji koji su sveobuhvаtni i doprinose širenju određenih vjerovаnjа i stаvovа o zemlji. Nаcionаlni imidž obuhvаtа: vrijednost zemlje i nemаterijаlnu imovinu vezаnu zа zemlju. Vrijednost zemlje predstаvljа udio potrošаčeve sklonosti kа brendu ili proizvodu koji je izveden iz grupe proizvodа vezаnih zа određenu zemlju. Nemаterijаlnа imovinа podrаzumijevа аsocijаciju nа zemlju kojа odrаžаvа sud o dimenzijаmа kvаlitetа koje zemljа verifikuje putem izvoza. Nаime, nemаterijаlnа imovinа nаcionаlnog imidžа je ekvivаlentnа stаvu potrošаčа o rаzlici u vrijednosti koju dobijа opredjeljenjem zа određeni nаcionаlni brend. Dvа su osnovnа efektа imidžа zemlje: „Hаlo“ efekаt i sumаrni efekаt. „Hаlo“ efekаt je prisutаn kаdа potrošаč formirа svoj stаv o proizvodu prije njegove kupovine. Sumаrni efekаt predstаvljа shvаtаnje zemlje nа bаzi аkomulirаnih iskustаvа sа proizvodimа i brendovimа iz određene zemlje. Ovа dvа efektа nаcionаlnog imidžа su u interаkciji i doprinose boljem prihvаtаnju proizvodа sа nаcionаlnim predznаkom. Nаcionаlni imidž je dinаmičnа kаtegorijа kojа je podložnа stаlnim nаmjernim i nenаmjernim promjenаmа. U izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog imidžа učestvuje čitаv skup nаcionаlnih institucijа, bаveći se imidžom zemlje svаkа iz svog аpsektа. Martin and Eroglu (1993), under the image of the country consider the set of all descriptive information and belief that an individual has about a particular country. Thakor and Katsanis (1997) define the country’s image as a collection of knowledge on associations of varying complexity and strength of a country. These associations imply constructed stereotypes of the country that are comprehensive and contribute to the spread of certain beliefs and attitudes about the country. National image includes: value of country and intangible assets related to the country. The value of country’s share of the consumer’s preference for brand or product that is derived from a group of products related to a specific country. Intangible asset entail the association of a country that reflects the judgment of the level of quality that verifies the country through exports. The intangible asset of the national image is equivalent to the attitude of consumers in the difference between values received by the commitment to a national brand. There are two main effects of the country’s image, “halo” effect and the summary effect. “Halo” effect is present when consumers form their opinion about the product before they buy it. The summary effect is the comprehension of country based on accu-mulated experiences with products and brands in a specific country. These two effects of national image interact and contribute to better acceptance of the product with a national prefix. National image is a dynamic category that is subject to constant intentional and unintentional changes. The building of national image involves a group of national institutions dealing with the image of the country, each with its aspects. Ishodište аktivnosti nа promovisаnju zemlje i izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog imidžа je izgrаdnjа nаcionаlnog brendа. U literаturi postoje rаzličite definicije brendа tаko dа se brend (mаrkа) definiše kаo holističkа sumа svih podаtаkа o proizvodimа ili grupаmа Goal of activities in promotion of the country and building a national image is building a national brand. In the literature there are different definitions of the brand so that the brand is defined as the sum of holistic information about the products or product groups 97 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... proizvodа rаdi poboljšаnjа vjerodostojnosti i rejtingа orgаnizаcije, ili brend predstаvljа prepoznаtljivu oznаku ili ime određenog proizvodа, stvаrаjući snаžаn i trаjаn identitet proizvodа ili usluge i predstаvljа posebnost kompаnije i podstiče osjećаje povjerenjа, korisnosti i sigurnosti. Bitnа kаrаkteristikа je što on diferencirа proizvod, uslugu ili kompаniju od ostаlih konkurenаtа nа tržištu. Funkcijа brendа je dа svojim identitetom prenese određenu poruku potrošаčimа i dа stvori određenu sliku u potrošаčevom doživljаvаnju brendа. Ističemo dvа vаžnа аspektа brendа: (1) iskustveni, koji predstаvljа skup svih dodirnih tаčаkа sа brendom; (2) psihološki, simboličkа konstrukcijа kreirаnа u mišljenju ljudi i sаdrži sve informаcije i očekivаnjа kojа аsocirаju nа proizvod ili uslugu. in order to improve the credibility and rating organization, or a recognizable brand name or label of a product, creating a strong and lasting identity of the product or service and a special company and encourages feelings of trust, usefulness and safety. An important feature is that it differentiates the product, service or company from other competitors in the market. The function of a brand is to communicate its identity through a certain message to consumers and to create a specific image in the consumer’s perception of the brand. We point out two important aspects of the brand: (1) Experiential aspect, which is the set of all points of contact with the brand. (2) Psychological aspect, which is symbolic structures created in the opinion of the people and contains all the information and expectations associated with a product or service. Ne ulаzeći u detаljniju klаsifikаciju brendovа, mi ćemo nаvesti dvije osnovne grupe brendovа: krovni ili grupni brendovi i pojedinаčni brendovi. Krovni brendovi se odnose nа grupu proizvodа ili nа čitаvu kompаniju ili određenu privrednu grаnu ili pаk nа određeni geogrаfski prostor. Nаcionаlni brend svrstаvаmo u ovu grupu. Pojedinаčni brendovi se vezuju sа po-jedinаčnim proizvodimа ili sа pojedinаčnim kompаnijаmа prisutnim u jednoj uskoj privrednoj grаni. Imidž zemlje je u jаkoj interаkciji sа nаcionаlnim brendom tаko dа postoji njihovа velikа međuzаvisnost, povezаnost i međusobno djelovаnje. Postoji velikа rаzlikа u izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog brendа i pojedinаčnog brendа. Nаime, specifičnost izgrаdnje nаcionаlnog brendа je sаdržаnа u sljedećem: Without going into a detailed classification of the brands we listed two main groups of brands: roof or group brands and individual brands. Group brand is related with a group of products or the entire company or a specific economic sector or a particular geographic area. National brand is classified in this group. Individual brands are associated with individual products or individual companies present in a particular sector. Image of the country is in a strong interaction with national brand, so there is their big interdependence, connectivity and interoperability. There is a big difference between building a national brand and individual brand, the specificity construction of the national brand is contained in the following: 1. Pri kreirаnju pojedinаčnih brendovа, moguće je sprovesti bilo koju аktivnost kojа podrаzumijevа i povlаčenje proizvodа sа tržištа, unаprijediti i modifikovаti brend, ukinuti postojeći i uvesti novi brend. Sve ove аktivnosti nije moguće sprovesti pri kreirаnju nаcionаlnog brendа. 1. When creating individual brands, it is possible to carry out any activity that involves withdrawal from the market, enhance and modify the brand, to abolish existing and introduce new brand. All of these activities cannot be performed when creating a national brand. 2. Kod nаcionаlnih brendovа postoji problem mjerenjа efikаsnosti. Zbog rаzličitih interesа, pojedini аspekti brendа nemаju istu relаtivnu vrijednost zа 2. For national brands there is a problem of measuring efficiency. Due to different interests, aspects of the brand have not the same relative value for different 98 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... rаzličite institucije, tаko dа postoji problem u definisаnju kriterijumа zа ocjenu efikаsnosti. institutions so that there is a problem in defining the criteria for assessing the effectiveness. 3. Nаcionаlno brendirаnje podrаzumijevа superviziju i koordinаciju jedne institu-cije tаko dа onа direktno diktirа аkti-vnosti učesnikа procesа. 3. National branding asked supervision and coordination from the one institu-tion so that it directly dictates the activ-ities of institutions involved in the process. 4. Mаrketаri imаju mаnju mogućnost kontrolisаnjа nаcionаlnog brendа u odnosu nа pojedinаčni brend. Nаcionаlni brend ima problem nekontrolisаnih informаcijа o brendu, što nije slučаj kod pojedinаčnog brendа. 4. Marketers have less ability to control the national brand in relation to a particular brand. As the national brand is a problem of uncontrolled information on the brand, which is not the case of single brand. Dаnаs se kаo lideri u sistemаtskom i plаnskom uspostаvljаnju i vođenju nаcionаlnog brendа ističu: Novi Zelаnd, Singаpur i Jаpаn. U primjeru Novog Zelаndа nosilаc аktivnosti nа izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog brendа je Odbor zа rаzvoj trgovine. Slogаn novozelаndskog nаcionаlnog brendа je The New Zealand Way NZW. Nаcionаlni brend kаo krovni brend doprinosi smаnjenju rizikа pri uvođenju novih proizvodа nа tržište i poboljšаvа stаv o kvаlitetu i kаrаkteristikаmа novih proizvodа. Krovni brend prenosi svoje kаrаkteristike nа sve proizvode koji se nаlаze pod njegovim okriljem, pojаčаvа pojedinаčne brendove mаnje vrijednosti, а, s druge strаne, i pojedinаčni brendovi imаju uticаj nа poboljšаnje nаcionаlnog brendа. Today, as leaders in a systematic and planned establishment and management of national brand stand out: New Zealand, Singapore and Japan. In the case of New Zealand, the Board of Trade Development is responsible for activities to build national brand. The slogan of the New Zealand national brand is: “The New Zealand Way”, NZW. National brand as an umbrella brand helps to reduce the risk of introducing new products to market and improve the position of the qualities and characteristics of new products. Umbrella brand conveys its own characteristics on all products that are found on its auspices, enhances individual brands inferiority; on the other hand, individual brands have an impact on the improvement of the national brand. Doprinos teorijskim i praktičnim osnovama nacionalnog brendiranja dali su Simon Anholt, Wally Olins, Philip Kothler i drugi. Contribution to the theoretical and practical basis of national branding gave Simon Anholt, Wally Olins, Philip Kothler and others. PROMJENA U OKRUŽENJU ZA NACIONALNO BRENDIRANJE CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT FOR NATIONAL BRANDING U posljednje dvije decenije proces ekonomske globalizacije je poprimio neslućene razmjere, a rezultat je velika povezanost i međuzavisnost nacionalnih ekonomija. Opšte smanjenje barijera za kretanje roba i kapitala dovelo je do veoma pogodnog okruženja za ekspanziju multi-nacionalnih kompanija. Veliki rast svjetske trgovine nije rezultat samo rasta In the last two decades, economic globalization has assumed great dimension, the result is a connection and interdependence of national economies. General reduction of barriers to the movement of goods and capital, has led to a very favorable environment for the expansion of multinational companies. A large increase in world trade is not only the 99 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... finalne potrošnje, već je to u značajnoj mjeri rezultat rasta trgovine intermedijarnim proizvodima, a što je posljedica kretanja kapitala koje je iniciralo rast intrakompanijske razmjene. U nastojanju kompanija da minimiziraju troškove poslovanja i maksimiziraju profit, investicije su se kretale ka destinacijama koje obezbjeđuju niže troškove poslovanja (radna snaga, transport, porezi,…). Takođe, kompanije neprestano tragaju za jeftinijim izvorima intermedijarnih proizvoda i usluga. Sve ovo za rezultat ima smanjenje nivoa nacionalnog sadržaja u finalnim proizvodima i uslugama. Imajući u vidu prethodnu činjenicu, suočavamo se sa pitanjem koliko ostvareni izvoz realno doprinosi rastu BDP? Rast nacionalnog izvoza ne znači i rast neto izvoza (ukupan izvoz - uvozne komponente i usluge sadržane u izvezenim proizvodima i uslugama). Ako nacionalno brendiranje prihvatimo kao instrument za podršku izvozu, uz značajnu finansijsku podršku države, onda se otvara pitanje: Čiji izvoz podržavamo novcem poreskih obveznika? result of final consumption, but this is largely a result of the growth of trade intermediate products, and as a result of capital movements which initiated the growth intra company trade. The company’s efforts to minimize costs and maximize profits, and investments were moving towards destinations that provide lower operating costs (labor, transportation, taxes, etc.). Also, the company is constantly looking for cheaper sources of intermediate goods and services. All these trends re-sulted in reduction of level of national content in export products and services. Bearing in mind the fact we are faced with the question of how export performance contributes to the growth of real GDP? National export growth does not mean the growth of net exports (total exports - imports components and services embodied in exported goods and services). If you accept national branding as a tool to support exports, with substantial financial support from the government, then the question arises: Whose export is supported by taxpayers’ money? Najnovija istraživanja ukazuju na problem međunarodne vertikalne integracije proizvodnje, što za rezultat ima smanjenje domaćeg sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima. Takav proizvod (usluga) gubi na svom nacionalnom identitetu. Prema istraživanju R.Cappariello (2012), u izvozu italijanske prerađivačke industrije strani sadržaj je u periodu 2000-2007. porastao sa 32,5% na 38,3%. Za Francusku i Njemačku podaci su slični, tako da za Francusku imamo da je strani sadržaj porastao sa 33,6% na 36%, a kod Njemačke je sa 29,9% na 34,5%. U italijanskoj prerađivačkoj industriji, domaći sadržaj je najniži kod rafinisanih proizvoda nafte i nuklearnog goriva 22,4%, kancelarijskih mašina i računara 39,8%, hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda 47%, najveći kod duvanskih proizvoda 93,8%, štampanih izdanja i drugih medija 76,3%, hrane i pića 74,8%, proizvoda od drveta 69,8% itd. Slično istraživanje je rađeno i za Kinu. Na bazi input-output analize R. Koopman, Z. Wang i S. Wei (2008.) su došli do sljedećih rezultata: domaći sadržaj u izvoznim proizvodima kineske prerađivačke industrije je u periodu 1997-2007 pao sa 82,4% na 71,3%. Recent research suggests the problem of international vertical integration of production results in reduction of domestic content in exports. Such product (service) loosed its national identity. According to research of R.Cappariello (2012), the export of Italian manufacturing sector foreign content in the period of 2000-2007, increased from 32.5% to 38.3%. In France and Germany data are similar, so in France we have increase of foreign content from 33.6% to 36%, while in Germany it rose from 29.9% to 34.5%. In Italian manufacturing industry, local content is the lowest in refined petroleum products and nuclear fuels 22.4%, office machinery and computers 39.8%, chemicals and chemical products 47%, the highest in tobacco products 93.8%, and other printed publications media 76.3%, food and beverages 74.8%, wood products 69.8%, etc.. Similar research has been done for China. On the basis of the input-output analysis of R.Koopman, Z.Wang and S.Wei (2008), found following: Domestic content in exports of Chinese manufacturing industry in the period of 1997-2007 fell from 82.4% to 71.3%. In 2007, the minimum local content value was recorded 100 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... U 2007. godini najniži sadržaj domaće vrijednosti imale su elektornske komponente 32,3%, audiovizeulni aparati 32,6%, računari 33,9%, a najveći cementi, obloge i malteri 88,4%, vatrostalni materijali 84,7%, tkanine 83,9%. as 32.3% approaches electronic components, audio and video equipment 32.6%, 33.9% for computers, and most cements, coatings and plasters 88.4%, 84.7% refractory materials, fabrics 83.9%. Šta se dešava u svijetu? Kakva je pozicija zemalja u razvoju? Prema podacima UNCTAD, u 2010. godini, svjetski prosjek za strani sadržaj u izvoznim proizvodima je 28%. Za razvijene zemlje prosjek stranog sadržaja je 31%, s tim što je za EU strani sadržaj 39%, a za SAD 11%. Kod zemalja u razvoju strani sadržaj je 25%, i to kod azijskih zemalja 27%, kod zemalja Latinske Amerike 21%, a kod tranzicionih zemalja 13%. OECD i WTO su formirali bazu podataka TiVA (Trade in Value Added) koja prati kretanje svjetske trgovine sa aspekta izvora dodatne vrijednosti sadržane u proizvodima. Trenutno baza podataka pokriva zemlje članice OECD, Rusiju, Brazil, Kinu, Indiju, Indoneziju i Južnu Afriku. Za 2009. godinu imamo podatke da je u izvozu Mađarske strani sadržaj iznosio 40,75%, Turske 21,07%, Slovenije 30,56%, Danske 30,5%, a u zemaljama koje nisu obuhvaćene TiVA 32,05%. Trend povećanja stranog sadržaja u izvozu je evidentan, tako da je potrebno pažljivije kreirati program državne podrške u kreiranju nacionalnih brendova. What is going on in the world? What is the position of the developing countries? According to the UNCTAD, during 2010, the world average for the foreign content of exports is 28%. For developed countries the average of foreign content is 31%, in the EU foreign content is 39% and 11% is for the USA. In developing countries foreign content is 25%, in Asian countries 27%, the countries of Latin America 21%, in transition countries 13%. OECD and WTO have formed a database TiVA (Trade in Value Added), which follow the movement of world trade in terms of sources of value added contained in products. Currently the database covers OECD countries, Russia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and South Africa. For 2009 we have data that foreign content in export from Hungary was 40.75%, 21.07% in Turkey, 30.56% in Slovenia, in Denmark 30.5%, and in countries that are not included in TiVA 32.05%. The trend of increasing foreign content in exports is evident, so there is need to carefully develop a program of state support in creation of national brands. Sljedeći problem proističe iz hipotetičkog primjera 1. Proizvod dominantno sadrži domaće intermedijarne proizvode, ali je proizveden upotrebom stranih faktora proizvodnje (strani kapital). Čuvena automobilska marka „Mini“ je u vlasništvu njemačke korporacije BMW. Bez obzira na to što je postojala jaka asocijacija brenda „Mini“ sa britanskom tehnologijom, dizajnom i kvalitetom, to je danas njemački brend. Po preuzimanju brenda „Mini“ od strane BMW, u te automobile je ugrađena BMW tehnologija, tako da ne možemo govoriti o britanskom brendu. Kod automobila „Mini“ imamo i značajno korištenje njemačkog znanja koje je opredmećeno u naprednoj tehnologiji ugrađenoj u automobil. Državna podrška u kreiranju brendova pod kontrolom stranog kapitala je problematična, pošto takva situacija omogućuje da se upotrebom novca The next problem is derived from hypothetical examples 1. The product contains predominantly domestic intermediate goods, but is manufactured using foreign factors of production (foreign capital). The famous car brand “Mini” is owned by German corporation BMW. Regardless of the fact that there was a strong association of the brand “Mini” with British technology, design and quality, it is German brand. After taking over the brand “Mini” by BMW, the car is built by BMW technology, so we cannot talk about British brand. We have significant use of German knowledge in “Mini” cars that is materialized in the advanced technology built into the car. State support in brand creation un101 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... poreskih obveznika na indirektan način povećava prinos na strani kapital. Mehanizmom transfernih cijena lako se obezbjeđuje lociranje profita u skladu sa interesima vlasnika kapitala. Podrška ovakvim brendovima (njihovo stavljanje u nacionalni kontekst) ne mora da ima pozitivan efekat na BDP, a pogotovo ne na BNP. Proces globalizacije je omogućio olakšan protok kapitala, a što za rezultat ima viši nivo stranog kapitala u domaćoj ekonomiji i izvozu. der the control of foreign capital is problematic, as the situation allows the use of taxpayer money to indirectly increase the return on foreign capital. Transfer pricing mechanism ensures easy locating profits in accordance with the interests of shareholders. Support for these brands (putting them in the national context) does not have a positive effect on GDP, and certainly not to the BNP. Kvalitetnije domaće kompanije teže ka internacionalizaciji poslovanja, a, posebno, one čija su domicilna tržišta mala i ne obezbjeđuju dovoljno prostora za rast. Prethodno smo naveli da je globalizacija olakšala kretanje kapitala, tako da domaće kompanije u izboru strategija internacionalizacije mogu da se opredijele za varijantu uspostavljanja proizvodnje u inostranstvu. Proizvodnjom u insotranstvu pozitivno se utiče na BNP, ali i na BDP, jer će se, vjerovatno, koristiti domaći intermedijarni proizvodi, koji se inače korsite u domicilnoj zemlji. Proizvodi proizvedeni u inostranstvu na ovaj način nemaju više odrednicu „Made in USA, Russia, Germany“, ali imaju odrednicu „Made by USA, Russian, German capital or knowelge“. Domestic companies with higher quality of business operations tend towards in-ternationalization, especially those that operate on the small domestic markets that do not provide enough space for growth. Previously, we have stated that globalization facilitates movement of capital, because of that local companies in the selection of strategy of internationalization can pursue variant of establishing production abroad. Production abroad by national capital had a positive impact on GNP, and on GDP in case that the company abroad use domestic intermediate products that usually use in the home country. The products manufac-tured abroad in this way no longer categorized as “Made in the USA, Russia, Germany,” but have the designation of “Made by USA, Russian, German or knowledge capital.” U cilju preovladavanja problema nivoa nacionalnog sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima, pokrenuta je inicijativa za nadnacionalno označavanje “Made in World”, koja treba da pospješi međunarodnu trgovinu. Ovakvom inicijativom se prevazilazi značaj nacionalnog označavanja i nacionalnog brendiranja i onemogućuje se diferenciranje proizvoda na osnovu nacionalnog brendiranja. For prevalence of the problem of the level of national content in export products there established initiative for a supranational mark “Made in World”. Such initiatives are beyond the importance of national identification and national branding, and make impossible to differentiate products on the basis of national branding. KOJA JE RAZLIKA IZMEĐU “MADE IN” I “MADE BY”? WHAT IS DIFERENCE BETWEEN “MADE IN” AND “MADE BY”? “Made in” označava proizvode koji imaju nacionalni identitet, tj. proizvedeni su prevolađujućom upotrebom nacionalnih inputa u naznačenoj zemlji (Shema 1). Nacionalna oznaka je u tijesnoj vezi sa nacionalnim brendom ili brendovima, nacionalna oznaka uspostavlja jasnu i nedvosmislenu vezu sa nacionalnim brendom. “Made in” means products that have national identity, it means that they produced by mainly usage of domestic inputs in specified country (Scheme 1). National label is closely related to the national brand, national labeling establishes clear and unambiguous link with national brand. 102 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... A Nacionalna teritorija National territory B C E Proizvodnja sa upotrebom nacionalnih inputa Production with national inputs C Proizvodnja sa upotrebom stranog kapitala Production with foreign capital D E D Production with mainly foreign inputs Production with mainly national inputs Shema 1. “Made in” Scheme 1. “Made in” S druge strane, “Made by” ćemo definisati kao označavanje koje implicira na proizvode koji su proizvedeni upotrebom nacionalnog kapitala i znanja, a, djelimično, i nacionalnih inputa (Shema 2). Takav proizvod nije nužno proizveden u zemlji, ali možemo reći da je proizveden pod kontrolom nacionalnih faktora. On the other hand, “Made by” will be defined as labeling implies that products are manufactured using national capital and knowledge, and partly national inputs (Scheme 2). Such product is not necessarily produced in the country, but we can say that it is produced under the control of national production factors. A Nacionalna teritorija i inostranstvo National territory and abroad B C E D Proizvodnja sa upotrebom nacionalnih inputa Production with national inputs C Proizvodnja sa upotrebom stranog kapitala Production with foreign capital D E Production with mainly foreign inputs Production with mainly national inputs Shema 2. “Made by” Scheme 2. “Made by” Suštinska razlika između ova dva koncepta je u tome što se kod prvog težište stavlja na proizvodnju u zemlji, upotrebom nacionalnih inputa, dok se kod drugog težište stavlja na upotrebu nacionalnih faktora, bez obzira na lokaciju proizvodnje. Drugi koncept uvažava globalno okruženje i korištenje prednosti koje takvo okruženje donosi. Istovremeno, promoviše se efikasna upotreba nacio- The essential difference between two concepts is that the first focuses on the production inside of the country, the use of national inputs, while the second focuses on the use of national factors, regardless of the location of production. The second concept takes into account the global environment and taking advantage that such an environment brings. At the same time, concept “Made by” promotes 103 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... nalnih faktora i korištenje efekata ekonomije obima, kao i potreba za kompleksnijim oblicima internacionalizacije poslovanja kompanija. Koncept “Made by” je kompatibilan sa industrijama zasnovanim na znanju, mada se može primijeniti i na druge industrije. “Made by” obezbjeđuje veću mogućnost za interakciju i sinergetske efekte između privatnih i nacionalnih brendova. Dok “Made in” na indirektan način promoviše reindustrijalizaciju nacionalne ekonomije, “Made by” to nema u svom primarnom cilju. “Made in” je koncept koji je u skladu sa obračunom BDP-a, a “Made by” je u skladu sa obračunom BNP-a. I jedan i drugi omogućavaju diferencijaciju na osnovu nacionalnog identifikovanja, ali sa drugačijim pristupom u identifikaciji nacionalne pripadnosti. the efficient use of national factors and the use of the effects of economies of scale and need for more complex forms of internationalization of companies. The concept “Made by” is compatible with knowledge-based industries, although it can be applied to other industries. “Made by” provide greater op-portunity for interaction and synergy effects between private and national brands. While “Made in” indirectly promotes the reindustrialization of the national economy, “Made by” is not in its primary goal. “Made in” is a concept that is consistent with the calculation of GDP, and “Made by” is consistent with the calculation of GDP. Both allow differentiation on the basis of national identification, but with a different approach to the identification of national frame. ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA KREIRANJE I PODRŠKU NACIONALNIM BRENDOVIMA? WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR CREATING AND SUPPORTING NATIONAL BRANDS? Na osnovu prethodno izloženih činjenica, jasno je da se nacionalnom brendiranju treba pristupiti sa velikom pažnjom uz prethodno jasno definisan stav države o nacionalnom brendiranju. Spoljnotrgovinskom politikom, u segmentu podsticaja izvoza, država treba da definiše stav prema konceptima “Made in” i “Made by”. Problem je komplikovaniji u malim ekonomijama koje imaju visok stepen otvorenosti ili teže ka višem nivou međunarodnog ekonomskog povezivanja. Takođe, nerazvijene ekonomije i ekonomije u razvoju imaju problem nižeg nivoa razvoja pratećih sektora koji proizvode intermedijarne proizvode. Rezultat je nedostupnost određenih intermedijarnih proizvoda dobijenih u zemlji, ili njihova visoka cijena, ili niži nivo kvaliteta, ili njihova tehnička neusaglašenost. Based on the facts set forth above, it is clear that national branding should be ap-proached with great care with previously clearly defined position of the state in national branding. By foreign trade policy in the area of export incentives, the state should define attitude towards the concepts of “Made in” and “Made by”. The problem is complicated for small economies that have high level of openness or aspire to higher level of international economic links. Also, underdeveloped economies and developing economies have the problem with low levels of development related sectors producing intermediate goods. The result is the unavailability of certain intermediate products obtained in the country, or their high price, or a lower level of quality or a technical noncompliance. Imajući u vidu trendove u međunarodnoj vertikalnoj integraciji proizvodnje, očekuje se da će doći do daljeg smanjenja nacionalnog sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima. Takođe, postoji razlika u nivou nacionalnog sadržaja u različitim sektorima. Sektori kao što su pre- Given trends in international vertical integration of production expect that there will be further reduction of national content in the export product. Also, there is a difference in the level of national content in different sectors. Sectors such as the food industry 104 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... hrambena industrija i industrije zasnovane na preradi sirovina lokalno raspoloživih, imaju veoma visok nivo domaćeg sadržaja, dok sektori sa naprednijim tehnologijama i višim nivoima prerade, imaju značajno niži udio domaćeg sadržaja. Globalno okruženje nameće potrebu za preispitivanjem državne spoljnotrgovinske politike u obalsti podsticaja izvoza (nacionalno brendiranje). Isključivo opredjeljenje za koncept “Made in” otvara problem prihvatljivog minimalnog nivoa domaćeg sadržaja. Kod ostalih programa podsticaja izvoza (podrška u finansiranju izvoznih poslova) uobičajeno je da minimalni nivo domaćeg sadržaja iznosi 51% i da se pruža podrška shodno utvrđenom nivou domaćeg sadržaja. Nacionalno brendiranje nije moguće dijeliti proporcionalno domaćem sadržaju, tako da je neophodno donijeti odluku koji je nivo domaćeg sadržaja prihvatljiv za nacionalno brendiranje. Koncept “Made in” otvara pitanje nacionalnog brendiranja proizvoda proizvedenih u kompanijama koje su u većinskom stranom vlasništvu. Koliko je opravdano novcem poreskih obveznika podržavati strani Kapital? S druge strane, koncept “Made by” kako smo ga prethodno definisali, otvara pitanje zašto podržavati komapnije koje su izvezle Kapital u druge zemlje i na taj način doprinose razvoju drugih ekonomija. Ne treba ispustiti iz vida značaj nacionalnog brendiranja na domaćem tržištu, posebno u velikim ekonomijama sa znatnim potrošačkim potencijalom domaćeg tržišta. and processing industries based on locally available raw materials, have very high level of domestic content, while those with more advanced technologies and higher levels of processing, have significantly lower share of domestic content. Global environment imposes the need for revision of the state of foreign trade policy in export incentives (national branding). Only commitment to the concept of “Made in” raises the issue of an acceptable minimum level of domestic content. In other programs, export incentives (support in export financing) common minimum level of domestic content is 51%, and provides support in accordance with the established level of domestic content. National branding can not be shared in proportion to the domestic content, so it is necessary to decide which level of domestic content acceptable for national branding. The concept of “Made in” raises the question of national branding of products manufactured by companies that are majority foreignowned. How valid is the taxpayers’ money spent to support foreign capital? On the other hand, the concept of “made by” as we have defined it, raises the question of why should we support companies that exported capital to other countries, thus contributing to the development of other economies. We should not loose sight of the importance of national branding on the domestic market, especially in large economies with potential of domestic market. Kanda je preduzela određene aktivnosti u nacionalnom označavanju kako bi odgovorila na promijenjene uslove globalne ekonomije. Kanadski biro za konkurentnost je 2009. godine izdao vodič za označavanje proizvoda sa „Made in Canada“ i „Product of Canada“, koji je zamijenio uputstvo koje je bilo na snazi od početka 2002. godine. Do 2009. godine u Kanadi je egzistirala samo oznaka „Made in Canada“, a novom regulativom je definisana oznaka „Product of Canada“. U skladu sa novom regulativom, sa „Made in Canada“ mogu se označavati samo oni proizvodi koji imaju najmanje 51% kanadskog sadržaja (rad + materijali), a proizvedeni su u Kanadi. Sa oznakom „Product Canada has taken specific actions in the national labeling, in order to respond to the changed conditions of global economy. The Canadian Competition Bureau’s 2009 issued a guide for marking products with “Made in Canada” and “Product of Canada”, which replaced the manual that has been in effect since early 2002. Until 2009, in Canada there was only the label “Made in Canada”, new regulation defined new label “Product of Canada”. In accordance with the new legislation, the “Made in Canada” can mean only those products that have at least 51% Canadian content (materials + labor) and are manufactured in Can-ada. La105 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU... of Canada“ se označavaju proizvodi koji imaju najmanje 98% kanadskog sadržaja, a proizvedeni su u Kanadi. I kod jednog i kod drugog označavanja obavezan uslov je da su materijali i komponente uvoznog porijekla promijenile svoj oblik, i mogu se smatrati potpuno drugim proizvodom. Kanada se opredijelila za koncept koji promoviše proizvodnju u Kanadi, a koja primarno koristi kanadske inpute. Zakonska regulativa Kanade strogo zabranjuje upotrebu bilo koje oznake (slika, kombinacija slova ili riječi, kombinacija znakova, slika i slova) koja upućuje na kanadsko porijeklo, a da nisu ispunjeni uslovi za nacionalno označavanje. Iz ovakvog regulisanja nacionalnog označavanja u Kanadi, jasno je da država nastoji da zaštiti izgrađeni nacionalni brend. beled “Product of Canada” denotes products that have at least 98% Canadian content, and are manufactured in Canada. In both cases the mandatory labeling requirement is that the materials and components imported origin changed its shape, and can be considered as completely different product. Canada is committed to the concept that promotes the production in Canada, which primarily benefit the Canadian inputs. Legislation of Canada strictly prohibits the use of any label (picture, letter combinations or words, combination of signs, pictures and letters) that refers to the Canadian origin, and that the conditions for national labeling did not full filed. There is clear that Canada try to protect built national brand. Uz slične principe, ali sa komplikovanijim pravilima, SAD su regulisale nacionalno označavanje. U SAD nacionalno označavanje ima veliku važnost na domaćem tržištu, zbog jake konkurencije roba iz drugih zemalja. Američka automobilska industrija, nekada nacionalni ponos, doživjela je potpuni kolaps u nadmetanju sa japanskom, korejskom i evropskom konkurencijom. Nacionalno označavanje u SAD ima sasvim drugačiju dimenziju u odnosu na ostale zemlje. With similar principles, but with more complicated rules, the USA regulated national labeling. In the USA national labeling has great importance on the domestic market due to strong competition from goods of other countries. The USA auto industry, once a national pride, has experienced a complete collapse in competition with the Japanese, Korean and European competition. National designation in the USA has completely different dimension compared to other countries. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Ovdje dajemo moguće rješenje za koji koncept treba da se opredijeli država kod nacionalnog brendiranja. Opredjeljenje države treba da bude kombinacija podrške privatnim i nacionalnim brendovima i brendiranju, uz izbalansirano prihvatanje i koncepata „Made in“ i „Made by“. Sektorska analiza, kao i nacionalne razvojne strategije, treba da daju odgovor o dostignutom nivou razvoja sektora kao i ciljanom nivou razvoja pojedinačnih sektora. Prema tome, treba da bude koncipirana strategija razvoja privatnih i nacionalnih brendova. Sektori kod kojih postoji resursna osnova i mogućnost vertikalne proizvodne integracije i diverzifikacije, su obavezno predmet podrške u nacionalnom brendiranju. Ovakvi sektori In conclusion we give a possible solution to the concept that should be dedicated to the state in national branding. Policy of the state should be a combination of support to private and national brands and branding, with a balanced acceptance concepts “Made in” and “Made by”. Sector analysis, as well as the national development strategy should give an answer to the progress in the development of the sector as well as the targeted level of development of individual sectors. Therefore, there should be designed strategy of development of private and national brands. The sectors which have a resource base and the possibility of vertical integration and diversification are subject to mandatory support through national branding. These sectors with high level of domestic 106 V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL... Nacionalna teritorija National territory content, in addition to support through national branding should be supported, supporting the development of private brands, but only those that are under the control of domestic (national) capital. The development of private brands achieved a positive effect on the national brand. In sectors with higher technologies we have fact that is lower level of domestic content in products. If we adhere to the concept of “Made in” these sectors would not be suitable to support branding and national branding, which would be eliminated in sectors that provide significant development of the national economy. The solution takes into account the interests of the national economy are given in the form of a matrix (Scheme 3). Grayed fields are marked variations suitable for public support in branding. Inostranstvo Abroad nacionalni kapital national capital strani kapital foreign capital nacionalni kapital national capital strani kapital foreign capital privatni brend private brands nacionalni brend national brands Proizvodnja sa Production with zbog visokog nivoa domaćeg sadržaja, uz podršku kroz nacionalno brendiranje, treba da budu podržani i kroz podršku razvoju privatnih brendova ali samo onih koji su pod kontrolom domaćeg (nacionalnog) kapitala. Razvojem privatnih brendova ostvaruje se pozitivan efekat i na nacionalni brend. U sektoru sa višim tehnologijama manji je nivo domaćeg sadržaja u proizvodima. Ako bismo se pridržavali koncepta „Made in“, ovi sektori ne bi bili podesni za podršku u brendiranju i nacionalnom brendiranju, čime bi bili eliminisani sektori koji omogućuju značajniji razvoj nacionalne ekonomije. Rješenje koje uvažava interese nacionalne ekonomije dajemo u obliku matrice (Shema 3). Potamnjenim poljima su označene varijante podesne za državnu podršku u brendiranju. strani inputi strani inputi domaci inputi domaci inputi domestic inputs foreign inputs domestic inputs foreign inputs Shema 3. Solucije za podršku izvoza brenda LITERATURA Scheme 3. Solution for support of export branding LITERATURE Cappariello, R. (2012). Domestic ValueAdded Content of Exports: A CrossCountry Comparison for the Major European Economies. Frankfurt an Main: NCB Experts Meeting “Assessing Competitiveness“ at ECB. Cappariello, R. 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New York – Geneva. 108 FISKALNA EKONOMIJA - FISCAL ECONOMY UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Mr Biljana Stanivuk* *Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet Poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina Stručni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301009S, UDK 338.23:336.22+336.127(497.6) Professional paper REZIME SUMMARY Poreska struktura pojedinih država se može posmatrati putem uticaja pojedinih oblika poreza u ukupnim javnim prihodima. Fiskalni sistem modernih država čini kombinacija većeg broja poreza koji su koncipirani tako da pogoduju datim ekonomskim i socijalnim ciljevima, odnosno predstavljaju ostvarivanje ciljeva fiskalne politike zemlje. Poreski sistemi су drugačiji prvenstveno zbog toga što države imaju različitu potrebu za sredstvima kojima finansiraju javne rashode. Jedan od najznačajnijih pokazatelja koji se pripisuje javnom sektoru je visina poreskog opterećenja pojedinih poreskih prihoda u ukupnom bruto društvenom proizvodu. The tax structure of individual countries can be seen in the influence of certain forms of taxes in total government revenues. The fiscal system of modern states is a combination of a number of taxes that are designed to favor the given economic and social objectives, and represent the objectives of the fiscal policy of the country. Tax systems are different primarily because countries have different requirements for funds which finance public expenditure. One of the most important indicators that the public sector is attributed to the amount of the tax burden of certain tax revenues to gross domestic product. Ključne riječi: Fiskalna politika, poreska struktura, ekonomski ciljevi, direkni porezi, indirektni porezi, BDP. Keywords: fiscal policy, tax structure, economic objectives, Direct taxes, indirect taxes, GDP UVOD INTRODUCTION Primjenjujući fiskalnu politiku, država pomaže izvršavanju svojih ekonomskih ciljeva. Fiskalna politika predstavlja moćan instrument kojim se mogu usmjeravati privredni tokovi i privredne aktivnosti. Osnovna funkcija poreza je prikupljanje javnih prihoda. Međutim, porezi imaju i dodatne funkcije koje se ogledaju u alokaciji društvenih sredstava, preraspodjeli nacionalnog dohotka, stabilizaciji privrednih kretanja i slično. Kreiranjem odgovarajuće poreske strukture i izborom poreskih stopa, država može da utiče na uravnoteženje cijena, investicije, zaposlenost, štednju, trgovinske tokove, povećanje izvoza, smanjenje uvoza, socijalne probleme. The government helps the performance of their economic goals applying the fiscal policy. The fiscal policy is a powerful tool for economic flows and economic activity . The main function of the tax is revenue collection. However, taxes additional features are reflected in the allocation of social resources, redistribution of national income, the stabilization of economic trends and the like. The government can influence the balance of price, investment, employment, savings, trade flows, increase exports, reduce imports and social problems by creating an appropriate tax structure and the choice of tax rates. 109 B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI FISKALNA POLITIKA I EKONOMSKI TOKOVI FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC TRENDS Ristić (2010) navodi da se problematika fiskalnog djelovanja na privredni razvoj ogleda u mobilizaciji akumulacionog potencijala, sektorskoj orijentaciji investicija, u stimulisanju tehničko-tehnološkog progresa, primjeni rezultata naučnoistraživačkog rada, u formiranju kadrova i znanja, u izgradnji objekata ekonomske infrastrukture, u promovisanju privrednog rasta i to posredstvom diferencijalnog ili diferenciranog oporezivanja, fiskalnih dedukcija i beneficija, poreskih oslobađanja i olakšica, ubrzane amortizacije i niza drugih instrumenata fiskalne politike. Ristić (2010) found that the issue of fiscal actions on economic development is to mobilize the potential of the reservoir, the sectoral orientation of investment stimulating technological progress, the formation of human resources and knowledge, building the economic infrastructure, promoting economic growth and through differential or differentiated taxation, fiscal deductions and benefits, tax exemptions and incentives, accelerated depreciation and a number of other instruments of fiscal policy. Selektivno usmjeravanje pojedinih fiskalnih instrumenata dovodi do harmonizacije rasta na makroekonomskom planu, odnosno, ima za cilj povećanje produktivnosti rada, tehnički progres, racionalno korišćenje kapaciteta, optimalnu alokaciju investicionih resursa, veću mobilnost resursa, supstituciju proizvodnih faktora i povećanje zaposlenosti na mikroplanu. Na primjer, porez na dodatu vrijednost favorizuje izvoz više nego druge vrste poreza i smatra se da je upravo ovaj poreski oblik zaslužan za popravljanje platnog bilansa sa inostranstvom. Isto tako, porez na dodatu vrijednost stimuliše investicije obezbjeđujući refundaciju plaćenog poreza na ime investicionih troškova i nabavke kapitalne opreme i na taj način investiranje postaje jeftinije i privlačnije, povećavaju se zaposlenost i ukupan razvoj. O uticaju poreza na dodatu vrijednost na ove i ostale ekonomske kategorije biće više riječi u nastavku rada. It should be added that very selectively targeting specific fiscal instruments lead to the harmonization of macro-economic growth, aims to increase labor productivit, technical progress, the rational utilization of capacity, the optimal allocation of investment resources, greater mobility of resources, substitution of factors of production and increase employment in micro level. For example, the value added tax favors export more than other types of taxes, and considered that it was this form of tax credit for improving the balance of payments with foreign countries. Similarly, the value added tax encourages investment by providing a refund of tax paid on behalf of the investment cost and the procurement of capital equipment and thus investment becomes cheaper and more attractive, increasing employment and overall development. Značajno je da, pored fiskalnih efekata, izbor odgovarajuće poreske strukture ima i nefiskalne efetke koji su izuzetno važni za ekonomske tokove. Primjena poreske politike ogleda se u: (1) alokativnim efektima, (2) redistributivnim efektima i (3) stabilizacionim efektima. The choice of the appropriate tax structure has a non-fiscal effect which are extremely important for the economy. The application of tax policy is reflected through: (1) allocative effects, (2) redistributive effects and (3) stabilizing effects. Alokativni efekti ogledaju se u optimalnoj alokaciji resursa u cilju unapređivanja ekonomskih aktivnosti, povećanju domaće proizvodnje, usmjeravanju kapitala i slično. U ovom slučaju, postavlja se pitanje poreske neutralnosti, odnosno da li država ima pravo da stimuliše/ destimuliše pojedine privredne aktivnosti. Allocative effects are reflected in the optimal allocation of resources in order to promote economic activity , increased domestic production, directing capital and the like. In this case, the question of tax neutrality, whether the state has the right to encourage/discourage certain economic activities. 110 B. Stanivuk: FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Uloga države u usmjeravanju privrednih kretanja trebalo bi da bude takva da ne utiče na smanjivanje inicijative, motivisanosti za proizvodnju i privredni razvoj ekonomskih subjekata. Proizvodi i usluge koji se pojavljuju kao dobra od opšteg društvenog značaja neminovno zahtijevaju intervenciju države, zbog čega se ne mogu prepustiti tržišnom mehanizmu. Aktivnosti koje doprinose opštem društvenom razvoju, kao, na primjer, obrazovanje, kultura i nauka, djeluju na privredni rast i, samim tim, su oslobođeni oporezivanja. The role of the state in directing economic trends should not affect the reduction initiative, motivation for production and economic development of economic agents. Products and services that appear as good of general public importance will inevitably require the intervention of the state, which can not be left to the market mechanism. Activities that contribute to the overall social development, such as education, culture and science, work on economic growth and therefore are exempt from taxation. Uvođenje poreza na dodatu vrijednost i određivanje njegovih osnovnih karakteristika (izbor stope, osnovice, obveznika, oslobađanja) izuzetno utiče na alokaciju pojedinih privrednih aktivnosti. Već je navedeno da ovaj poreski oblik podstiče izvoz, investicije, a, samim tim, alocira privrednu aktivnost u cilju povećanja produktivnosti, rasta zaposlenosti, ravnotežnog platnog bilansa i slično. The introduction of value added tax and determine its basic characteristics (selection rate base, the taxpayers of release) highly affects the allocation of certain economic activities. It has already been stated that this form of taxation encourages exports, investment, and thus allocate economic activity in order to increase productivity, employment growth, balance of payments deficit and the like. Stabilizacioni efekti fiskalane politike imaju za cilj razvoj i stabilnost privredne aktivnosti. Održavanje agregatne ponude i tražnje na određenom nivou moguće je primjenom instrumenata fiskalne politike, odnosno odgovarajućom fiskalnom strategijom. Ukoliko bi se porezima uticalo na povećanje cijena, to bi izazvalo povećanje troškova života, a, samim tim, i veće plate i tako bi se inflatorna spirala širila u nedogled. Postavlja se pitanje koja to visina i struktura poreza omogućava stabilnost privrede. Izuzetno je izražen skepticizam kada je u pitanju uvođenje poreza na dodatu vrijednost i njegov uticaj na porast cijena. Stabilization effects of fiscal policy aimed at the development and stability of economic activity. Maintenance of aggregate supply and demand at a certain level it is possible using the instruments of fiscal policy and appropriate fiscal strategy. If the tax effect of the price increase, it would have caused an increase in the cost of living, and therefore higher wages and thus to an inflationary spiral spread indefinitely. The question is what is the amount and structure of taxes to economic stability. It is expressed skepticism when it comes to the introduction of value added tax and its impact on the price increase. Značajno je navesti da, prema mišljenju istaknutog ekonomiste iz oblasti poreza, a naročito poreza na dodatu vrijednost, Alana Tait-a, porez na dodatu vrijednost ne izaziva porast opšteg nivoa cijena, kao ni inflaciju. To se ne može reći za male i nestabilne privrede koje već imaju inflaciju i koje u uslovima opšte nestabilnosti navode ovaj poreski oblik kao jedan od osnovnih razloga porasta inflatornih efekata. It is important to mention that, according to prominent economists in the field of taxation, particularly value added tax, Alan Tait, the value added tax does not cause a rise in the general price level, or inflation. It can not be said for the small and vulnerable economies that already have inflation and that in terms of the general instability of the state tax form as one of the main reasons for the increased inflationary effects. 111 B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI Redistributivni efekti poreza na dodatu vrijednost imaju izuzetan uticaj prilikom uvođenja ovog poreskog oblika. Iako je osnovni cilj poreza na dodatu vrijednost oporezivanje dodate vrijednosti prilikom prodaje roba i usluga, bitno je naglasiti da ovaj porez ne identifikuje potrošače po njihovoj ekonomskoj snazi, već jednako pogađa i siromašne i bogate slojeve stanovništva. U principu to znači da više tereti siromašne slojeve, jer je njihova potrošnja u odnosu na dohodak mnogo veća od potrošnje bogatih slojeva. S obzirom da to su prehrambeni proizvodi nužni i da imaju neelastičnu tražnju (njihovo učešće u dohotku se smanjuje porastom dohotka), primjena ovog kriterijuma dovela bi do toga da su siromašni slojevi više pogođeni porezom. Redistributive effects of taxes on added value of having a great influence in the introduction of this tax. Although the main purpose of value added tax on sale of goods and services, it is important to note that this tax does not identify consumers by their economic power, but equally affects both rich and poor segments of the population. In principle, this means that more charges the poor, because their consumption relative to income is much higher than the consumption of the rich layers. Becouse food products are necessary and have inelastic demand ( their share in income reduces income increases ), the application of this criterion would lead to the fact that the poor are more affected by the tax. Poreska struktura sastoji se od niza drugih poreskih oblika koji imaju za cilj da kao cjelina, omoguće što efikasnije rezultate. Pored efekata poreske politke, smatra se da je učešće javnih prihoda u bruto društvenom proizvodu (BDP) osnovni pokazatelj za uspješno koncipiranu fiskalnu politiku, odnosno za uspješno vođenje fiskalne politike. Povećanje BDP je pretpostavka za povećanje javnih prihoda i rashoda, kao i za poboljšanje društvenog standarda. Mjerama ekonomske politike nastoji se ostvariti optimalna stopa rasta, a to je slučaj kada se korišćenjem faktora proizvodnje vodi računa i o drugim ciljevima. Ekonomski rast se može podstaći mjerama poreske politike putem olakšica, oslobađanja, boljeg korišćenja svih resursa i povećanja produktivnosti rada. Poželjno je da je visina udjela javnog sektora preko 40% BDP. S obzirom na to da država svojom fiskalnom politikom utiče na privredne tokove i ima za cilj stabilan privredni sistem bez velikih oscilacija, neophodno je da upravlja agregatnom ponudom i tražnjom, odnosno da vodi anticikličnu fiskalnu politiku. The tax structure consists also of a number of other tax forms that are intended to provide the most efficient results. In addition to the effects of tax policy, it is considered that the share of public revenues to gross domestic product (GDP ) is indicators of successful conceived fiscal policy and the successful conduct of fiscal policy. GDP growth is a prerequisite for increasing public revenues and expenditures, as well as for the improvement of social standards. Measures of economic policy aims to achieve optimal growth, which is the case when using the factors of production takes into account the other goals. Economic growth can be encouraged through tax policy measures, incentives, exemptions, better use of resources and increase productivity. It is desirable that the amount of the share of the public sector is over 40% of GDP. The state applying the fiscal policy and affects economic trends toward to stable economic system without large fluctuations. It is necessary to manage aggregate demand and supply and to lead anti-cyclical fiscal policy. Marić (2007) navodi da se promjene u vrsti i visini javnih prihoda provode, po pravilu, primjenom: (1) automatski ugrađenog stabilizatora, (2) formule elastičnosti i (3) diskrecionih mjera. Marić (2007) found that changes in the type and amount of public revenue shall be carried out, as a rule, the application: (1) built-in automatic stabilizers, (2) formula of elasticity and (3) discretionary measures. Status automatskih stabilizatora imaju oni porezi koji, bez državne intervencije, samo- Status of automatic stabilizers have those taxes without state intervention , inde- 112 B. Stanivuk: FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA stalno reaguju na ciklične oscilacije privrednih aktivnosti i povećavaju ili smanjuju agregatnu tražnju. Smatra se da je najznačajniji regulator porez na dohodak sa progresivnim stopama. U situacijama rasta privrednih aktivnosti, raste dohodak, raste tražnja, pa se progresivnim oporezivanjem dohotka zahvata veći iznos javnih prihoda. Na taj način smanjuje se privredna aktivnost ekonomskih subjekata i sprečava prevelika količina novca u opticaju koja bi vodila inflaciji. U slučajevima recesivnih privrednih aktivnosti, država može da finansira svoje potrebe sredstvima koja je prikupila u uzlaznoj fazi privredne aktivnosti. Na taj način se utiče na porast tražnje (jer privredni subjekti dolaze do sredstava). Automatski stabilizator, dakle, omogućava da se održi ravnoteža privrednih tokova, reguliše količina novca u opticaju i omogućava nesmetano funkcionisanje privrede. pendently respond to cyclical fluctuations in economic activity and the increase or decrease aggregate demand. The most important regulator of the income tax is progressive rates. If the economic activity growth it will rising incomes, increasing demand, and progressive taxation of income covers a larger amount of public revenue. This contributes to the reduction of economic activity of economic entities and prevents excessive amount of money that leads to inflation. In cases of recessive economic activities, the government can finance its needs funds collected by the upswing in economic activity. Thus affecting the growth of demand (for commercial entities come up with the funds ). Automatic stabilizers, therefore, maintain the balance of economic processes, regulates the money supply and allows the smooth functioning of the economy . Formula elastičnosti, takođe, ima za cilj da reguliše privredne aktivnosti, odnosno da otkloni negativne efekte privrednih oscilacija. U ovom slučaju se unaprijed utvrđuju propisi koji će se primjenjivati shodno promjenama u ekonomskim tokovima. Pri utvrđivanju formule elastičnosti mogu se primijeniti dva pristupa: Elasticity formula also aims to regulate economic activity and remove the negative effects of economic fluctuations. In this case, the pre - established rules that will be applied in line with changes in the economy. In determining the elasticity formula can be applied two approaches: 1. prvi, u slučaju da u privredi dođe do negativnih promjena, preduzimaju se mjere koje su naprijed propisane i 1. First, if the economy comes to negative changes, measures are being taken forward by the prescribed and 2. drugi, tek nakon utvrđivanja postojanja negativnih trendova u privredi, nadležna tijela moraju propisati mjere koje treba preduzeti u pravcu usporavanja i zaustavljanja tih kretanja. 2. Second, after determining the existence of negative trends in the economy, the competent authority shall prescribe the measures to be taken in the direction of slowing and stopping the movement. Diskrecione mjere smatraju se najznačajnijim mjerama za ostvarivanje stabilizacione politike. Međutim, ove mjere se primjenjuju ad hoc, što znači da u momentu kada se neka promjena desi, nadležna tijela donose odluku o primjeni odgovarajućih mjera za uravnoteženje negativnih efekata. Ovo, naravno, nije dobro, jer se u ovom slučaju negativna aktivnost desila i ne postoji konstantna politika koja će stihijski dovesti do uravnoteženja, nego se primjenom trenutnih i naglih mjera situacija još više može pogoršati. Suština je da se poreskim mjerama svakako može doprinijeti unapređe- Discretionary measures are considered to be the most important measure for achieving stabilization policy . However, these measures are implemented ad hoc, which means that at the moment when a change occurs, the competent authorities shall take their decision on the implementation of appropriate measures to balance the negative effects . This, of course, is not good, because in this case the negative activity occurred and there is a constant policy that will lead to a spontaneous equilibrium, but the application of current, severe measures can further aggravate the situation . The bottom line is that 113 B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI nju ekonomske efikasnosti, jer raznim podsticajima, oslobađanjima i finansiranjima država može doprinijeti tehnološkom napretku, povećanju zaposlenosti, novim investicijama, povećanju produktivnosti i slično. the tax measures can certainly help improve the economic efficiency because various incentives, exemptions and financing, the state can contribute to technological progress, increased employment, new investment, increased productivity. Poreske reforme koje su izvršene u našoj zemlji objašnjene su već u prethodnom dijelu rada. Sada je značajno da vidimo ekonomske efekte tih poreskih reformi da bismo znali da li je naša fiskalna politika donijela očekivane rezultate. Ekonomski efekti poreskih reformi (direktnih i indirektnih poreza) imaju svoje učešće u BDP. Da bismo sagledali uticaj poreza na dodatu vrijednost na ekonomske tokove u Bosni i Hercegovini, neophodno je da analiziramo učešće ove vrste poreza u BDP. Tax reforms applied in our country have already explained in the previous paragraphs. It is important to see the economic effects of the tax reform in order to know whether our fiscal policy to deliver the expected results. Economic effects of tax reforms (direct and indirect taxes) have their share in GDP. In order to study the impact of value added tax on economic developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is necessary to analyze the percentage of this type of tax to GDP ratio. Učešće javnih prihoda u BDP-u je između 37% i 43%. To ujedno ukazuje na ogroman značaj koji fiskalna politika ima u privrednom životu naše zemlje. Ukoliko imamo u vidu da najveći iznos javnih prihoda čini porez na dodatu vrijednost (između 63% i 70% ukupnih indirektnih poreza i preko 40% svih javnih prihoda), jasno se može izvesti zaključak da je ovaj poreski oblik dominantan u BDP-u. Centralna banka Bosne i Hercegovine i Direkcija za ekonomsko planiranje u okviru Vijeća ministara izveli su odgovarajuće zaključke vezane za učešće i strukturu poreskih prihoda u BDP-u u odnosu na EU. The share of public revenues in GDP is between 37% and 43 % . It also indicates the tremendous importance of fiscal policy is the economic situation of our country. If we consider that the greatest amount of public revenue have the value added tax ( between 63 % and 70 % of total indirect taxes and over 40 % of all revenues ), it can be inferred that the dominant form of taxation to GDP . Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Economic Planning in the Council of Ministers took the appropriate conclusions for the participation and the structure of tax revenues to GDP than the EU. 14 12 10 8 6 EU-27 4 2 PDV VAT Akcize Taxes on product Grafikon 1. Struktura i učešće poreskih prihoda u BDP 114 Graph 1. The structure and share of tax revenue in GDP B. Stanivuk: FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Iz grafikona 1 jasno se vidi da učešće indirektnih poreza (samim tim i poreza na dodatu vrijednost) u našoj zemlji prevazilazi tu kategoriju u zemljama Evropske unije. Razlog je to što smo zemlja u razvoju i potrošnja predstavlja dominantno ekonomsko ponašanje privrednih subjekata. Razvijene zemlje Evropske unije imaju većinsko učešće direktnih poreza u BDP. Kalkulacija učešća pojedinih poreskih prihoda u BDP omogućava upoređivanje fiskalnog opterećenja i strukure oporezivanja. Indirektni porezi su harmonizovani na nivou države tek 2006. godine, pa se tek od tog perioda može mjeriti njihov uticaj. It is clear that the share of indirect taxes (and hence value added tax ) in our country exceeds the same category in the European Union. The reason is that we are a developing country and spending a dominant economic behavior of economic entities. The developed countries of the European Union have the majority share of direct taxes in GDP . Calculation share of certain tax revenues to GDP to compare the fiscal burden and structures of taxation. Indirect taxes are harmonized at the national level in 2006. years , and only in that period can measure their impact. Grafikon 2. Poreski prihodi EU27 i BiH % BDP) (u Graph 2. Tax revenues EU27 and Bosnia and Herzegovina (% of GDP ) Treba istaći da je naša zemlja reformom direktnih poreza napravila značajan korak ka širenju tržišta rada i povećanju najnižih neto dohodaka, čime se stvaraju preduslovi za rast doprinosa. Isto tako, rast direktnih poreza može se očekivati samo povećanjem privrednih aktivnosti. It should be noted that our country reform of direct taxes has made a significant step towards the expansion of the labor market and the increase of the lowest net income , thus creating the conditions for growth contributions. Similarly, the increase in direct taxes can be expected only by increasing economic activity. ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Značaj navedene strukture javnih prihoda u BDP nesumnjivo dovodi do zaključka da poreska politika predstavlja izuzetno moćan instrument. Sve poreske mjere, sistemom The importance of these structures in public revenues in GDP undoubtedly leads to the conclusion that tax policy is a very powerful tool . All tax measures , the system of 115 B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI poreskog zahvatanja ili oslobađanja, dovode do izmjena privredne strukture i ponašanja ukupne privredne dinamike. Međutim, kada je u pitanju naša zemlja, ne treba zaboraviti efekte prevaljivanja, koji su u stanju da, putem razvijenih oblika indirektnih poreza, dovedu do veće poreske presije, čiji teret snose krajnji potrošači. Možemo izvesti zaključak da je fiskalna politika zapravo jedini instrument u rukama vlade kojim se direktno utiče na ekonomska kretanja u kratkom roku, obzirom na to da automatizam „currency board-a“ skoro u potpunosti upravlja monetarnom politikom. Zapravo, fiskalna održivost, takođe, predstavlja jedan od preduslova za održivost samog „currency board-a“ u BiH. Konačno, fiskalna održivost predstavlja osnovni preduslov implementacije infrastrukturnih i drugih razvojnih programa zemlje. tax exemptions or abstractions , leading to changes in economic structure and behavior of the overall economic dynamics. However , when it comes to our country , we should not forget the effect of shifting , which are able to , the developed forms of indirect taxes lead to greater repression whose tax burden borne by the final consumers. We conclude that fiscal policy is actually the only tool in the hands of the government which directly affects the economic trends in the near term, given that automatism “ currency board “ almost entirely by monetary policy. In fact , fiscal sustainability is also represents a prerequisite for the sustainability of the “ currency board “ in Bosnia. Finally , fiscal sustainability is a fundamental prerequisite for the implementation of infrastructure and other development programs of the country. LITERATURA LITERATURE Marić, Lj. (2007). Utjecaj poreske politike na ekonomski rast (str. 72). Neum: VIII međunarodni simpozij, Reforme BIH put ka EU integracijama. Marić, Lj. (2007). The impact of tax policy on economic growth (p. 72). Neum: VIII međunarodni simpozij, Reforme BIH put ka EU integracijama. Ristić, Ž. (2010). Fiskalna strategija, strategijski menadžment javnih finansija. Beograd. Ristić, Ž. (2010) Fiscal strategy, strategic management of public finance (p. 278). Beograd. Vjeće ministara (2011). Ekonomski trendovi 2011. Dostupno na: http://www.dep. gov.ba/dep_publikacije/ekonomski_ trendovi/Archive.aspx?langTag=bsBA&template_id=140&pageIndex=1 Vjeće ministara (2011). Economic trends 2011. Available at: http://www.dep. gov.ba/dep_publikacije/ekonomski_ trendovi/Archive.aspx?langTag=bsBA&template_id=140&pageIndex=1 Odjeljenje za makroekonomsku analizu. OMA bilteni. Dostupno na: http:// www.oma.uino.gov.ba/04_oma_ bilten.asp?l=h Odjeljenje za makroekonomsku analizu. OMA biltens. Available at: http:// www.oma.uino.gov.ba/04_oma_ bilten.asp?l=h 116 DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMY POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek. Stručni članak doi 10.7251/OIK1301010M, UDK 007:005.51]:004 Professional paper REZIME SUMMARY Poslovna inteligencija obuhvata procese, tehnologije i alate koji nam pomažu pri transformaciji podatka u informacije, informacija u znanje i znanja u planove za vođenje organizacije. Business intelligence includes the processes, technologies and tools that help in transforming data into informations, informations into knowledge and knowledge into plans for management of the organization. BI (Business Intelligence) sistemi pomažu pri ispitivanju i analizama (ad hoc izvještavanje, alati za analizu), izvještavanju (kontrolne table, analiza trenda), planu, budžetu i prognozama (plan – ostvareno); menadžmentu učinaka (pokazatelji). Ovi sistemi omogućavaju jedinstven pristup informacijama, blagovremeni odgovor na poslovna pitanja i korišćenje BI sistema u svim dijelovima organizacije. Business Intelligence (BI) systems help t: testing and analysis (ad-hoc reporting, analysis tools), reporting (dashboards, trend analysis) to plan, budget and forecast (plan achieved) performance management (indicators). These systems provide a unique access to informations, response to business issues, and the use of BI systems throughout the organization. Osnovna ograničenja BI softvera su visoka cijena i dug vremenski period implementacije ovakvog sistema. The main limitations of BI software are high cost and long period of implementation of such a system. Bitan pojam vezan za primjenu ovih softvera poslovne inteligencije je Data Mininga (rudarenje). Rudarenje podataka (eng. data mining) možemo definisati kao pronalaženje zakonitosti u podacima. Područja u kojima se rudarenje podataka može uspješno primjenjivati su raznolika, na primjer, poslovanje preduzeća, ekonomija, mehanika, medicina, genetika itd. An important concept related to the application of the business intelligence software is a Data Mining (mining). Data mining (Eng. Data Mining) can be defined as finding regularities in data. The areas in which Data Mining can be successfully applied are varied, for example, the company’s operations, economics, mechanics, medicine, and genetics and so on. Ključne riječi: poslovna inteligencija, BI, OLAP, data mining. Keywords: business intelligence, BI, OLAP, Data Mining. UVOD INTRODUCTION Svaka organizacija koja se bavi proizvodnom funkcijom, i profitom kao krajnjim ciljem, predstavlja zapravo jedan dinamički sistem, koji karakteriše njegovo trenutno stanje kao i stanja u koja sistem može da pređe Any organization that deals with the production function, and profit as the ultimate goal, is actually a dynamic system, which is characterized by its current state and the state in which the system can move 117 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA u budućnosti. Ova stanja predstavljena su pomoću mnoštva podataka, koji se bilježe u različitim vrstama informacionih sistema, dokumentima i nekim drugim nosiocima informacija. Obrada ovih podataka, pronalaženje uzročno–posledičnih veza (korelacija) između njih i njihova transformacija u informacije predstavlja značajan razvojni potencijal. Informacije su ključni faktor za donošenje odluka na bilo kom nivou od operativnog, preko srednjeg do strateškog nivoa odlučivanja. Stoga njihovo adekvatno generisanje i interpretacija u značajnoj mjeri utiču na izbor modela upravljačkih akcija, koje će menadžment preduzeća koristiti. Elektronski način poslovanja postaje nezaobilazan i dominantan u odnosu na dosadašnje metode poslovanja (dosta sporije i manje efikasne), a osnovni pokazatelji uspješnosti poslovanja (efikasnost, efektivnost, produktivnost i rentabilnost) u direktnoj su vezi sa kvalitetom i stepenom implementacije informacionih tehnologija koje se koriste u te svrhe. to the future. These states are represented by a large amount of data, which is recorded in various types of information systems, document and other sources of information. The processing of these data, find the causal relationship (correlation) between them and their transformation into information is a significant potential for growth. Information is a key factor in decision-making at any level of operating through the middle to the strategic level of decision making. Therefore, their proper interpretation and generate significantly influence the choice of model management actions, which will use the company’s management. Electronic mode of operation becomes inevitable and dominant compared to current methods of doing business (slower and less efficient), and the main performance indicators (efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, and profitability), are directly related to the quality and degree of implementation of information technologies used for this purpose. Informacione tehnologije čine infrastrukturnu osnovu za odvijanje procesa u jednom savremenom poslovnom sistemu. Poslovna inteligencija (Business Intelligence) je dio informacionog sistema organizacije koji je namjenski razvijen da omogući upravljanje performansama organizacije. Poslovna inteligencija je oblast u okviru informacionih tehnologija, čiji je cilj da ukupne informacione potencijale preduzeća stavi u funkciju donošenja najkvalitetnijih odluka kako bi se ostvarili utvrđeni strateški ciljevi preduzeća. To je vrlo kompleksna oblast koja uključuje razne vrste tehnologija i pristupa iz oblasti informacionih tehnologija, menadžmenta, statistike i matematike. Osnovno pitanje koje se nameće kada se govori o ovim još uvijek inovativnim softverskim rješenjima u svijetu modernog biznisa jeste „Da li koristiti sistem poslovne inteligencije ili ne?“ –”To BI or not to BI?” Information technology infrastructure are the basis for the process in a modern business system. Business Intelligence Business Intelligence (BI) is part of the information system of organization that is dedicated developed to enable performance management organization. Business intelligence is an area in the field of information technology, which aims to overall enterprise information resources put to use making the best decisions to achieve the strategic goals established companies. It is a very complex area that includes various types of technologies and approaches in the field of information technology, management, statistics and mathematics. The basic question that comes to mind when talking about this yet innovative software solutions in the world of modern business is”Do you use a business intelligence system or not?”-”To BI or not to BI?” ŠTA JE POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA? WHAT IS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE? Da bismo znali što je u stvari, poslovna inteligencija, ili Business Intelligence, po- In order to know what is actually a business intelligence or business intelligence, 118 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE trebno je prvo definisati pojam kako bismo znali na koji način, u kojim slučajevima upotrebljavati termin i što se zapravo misli kada se kaže Business Intelligence. Poslovna inteligencija kao disciplina osmišljena je sedamdesetih godina dvadesetog vijeka, a jedna od mnogobrojnih definicija glasi: first we must define the term in order to know in what way, in which case use the term and what is actually meant by Business Intelligence. Business Intelligence as a discipline designed in the seventies of the twentieth century, and one of the many definitions as follows: Business Intelligence (BI) je korišćenje kolektivnog znanja organizacije, s ciljem postizanja konkurentskih prednosti. Business Intelligence (BI) is use the collective knowledge of the organization, in order to achieve a competitive advantage. Poslovna inteligencija obuhvata procese, tehnologije i alate koji nam pomažu pri transformaciji podatka u informacije, informacija u znanje i znanja u planove za vođenje organizacije. Pojam poslovne inteligencije (eng. Business Intelligence, BI) objedinjava metodologije, tehnologije i platforme za skladištenje podataka (Data Warehousing), mrežnu analitičku obradu podataka (OLAP Online Analytical Processing) i rudarenje podataka (Data Mining) koje omogućavaju poslovnim organizacijama kreiranje korisnih upravljačkih informacija iz podataka o poslovanju koji se nalaze disperzovani na različitim transakcijskim sistemima i dolaze iz različitih internih i eksternih izvora. Ovako predstavljene informacije se koriste za efikasnije strateške, taktičke i operativne preglede i donošenje odluka. Na osnovu toga izvodi se zaključak da je poslovna inteligencija zapravo tehnika poslovnog izvještavanja, koja omogućava pronalaženje informacija potrebnih za lakše, brže i tačnije donošenje poslovnih odluka. Poslovna inteligencija je nastala, odnosno evoluirala iz sistema za podršku odlučivanju koji se koristio u američkim kompanijama šezdesetih godina 20. veka. Pojam Business Intelligence se u srpskom jeziku prevodi kao poslovna inteligencija. Međutim, u engleskom jeziku riječ Intelligence ima dva značenja: sposobnost učenja, razumijevanja, logičkog razmišljanja, sposobnost da se te stvari rade dobro; tajna informacija sakupljena o stranoj zemlji, naročito neprijateljskoj, osobe koje sakupljaju te informacije. Osnov za razumijevanje pojma BI jesu tri stavke (načela): (1) etičan Business intelligence includes the processes, technologies and tools that help in transforming data into information, information into knowledge and knowledge into plans for management of the organization. The term Business Intelligence (Business Intelligence, BI) combines methodologies, technologies and platforms for data storage (Data Warehousing), network analytical processing (OLAP Online Analytical Processing) and Data Mining that enable enterprise organizations to create useful management information from the data on the operations that are dispersed in different transaction systems and come from a variety of internal and external sources. Such information is presented for the efficient use of strategic and tactical and operational audits and making decisions. Based on this it can be concluded that the business intelligence actually a technique that lets you find the information needed to make it easier, faster and more accurate decision making. Business intelligence is created or evolved from a decision support system used in the U.S. companies sixties of the 20th century. The concept of Business Intelligence in the Serbian language translates as business intelligence. But, in the English language the word intelligence has two meanings: the ability to learn, understand, logical thinking, an ability to do things well; secret information collected about a foreign country, especially a hostile, people collecting the information. The basis for understanding the concept of BI are three items (prin119 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA proces prikupljanja informacija, koje nakon adekvatne obrade postaju znanje; (2) proces usmjeren na informacije na osnovu kojih se planiraju budući događaji; i (3) instrument koji ima potpunu ulogu u procesu donošenja odluka. ciples): (1) ethical process of gathering information, which, after appropriate processing becomes knowledge; (2) the focus on information that is planning future events; and (3) the instrument that has a full role in the decision-making process. ZAŠTO POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA? WHY BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE? Jedno od osnovnih pitanja koje često postavljaju sebi organizacije, odnosno njihov menadžment jeste upravo to zašto su nam neophodni i šta će to unaprediti uvođenje ovih, napomenimo, nimalo jeftinih sistema. Osnovni razlozi uvođenja sistema poslovne inteligencije su slјedeći: One of the main questions that is often asked by the organization itself, and its management is exactly why we needed and what will promote the introduction of these, we note, no cheap system. The main reasons for the introduction of business intelligence systems are as follows: 1. Okolina nije više statična. Ponuda proizvoda i usluga je ogromna, konkurencija je velika. Istraživanja pokazuju da danas ponuda roba i usluga barem 30% nadmašuje potražnju (tržišta su zasićena). Nove okolnosti traže nova rješenja, novi izazovi nove napore. Prošla su vremena kada je bilo dovoljno proizvesti robu ili uslugu. 1. 2. Globalizacijom tržišta, razvojem distribucionih kanala,”uplitanjem” interneta u poslovanje, stvari su se promijenile. Sada su kupac i prodavac na udaljenosti jednog klika mišem. Danas su preduzeća pretrpana podacima, dok, s druge strane, postoji nedostatak korisnih informacija. Da bi se smanjio raskorak između količine raspoloživih podataka i informacija, potrebno je definisati procese prikupljanja podataka i njihovu”preradu” u informacije. Vrijeme reakcije na okolinu treba skratiti, po mogućnosti do real time. 2. Globalization of markets, the development of distribution channels,”interference” in the internet business, things have changed. Now the buyer and seller are at the distance of a click of the mouse. Today, the company are overloaded with data. On the other hand, there is a lack of useful information. To minimize the gap between the amount of available data and information necessary to define the processes of data collection and their”processing” in the information. The response time to the environment should be reduced, preferably to real time. 3. Resursi su uvijek ograničeni. Vrijeme kao najvažniji faktor gotovo uvijek je presudno. Stoga treba znati gdje postaviti polugu da bi se pomjerio veliki kamen. Kako treba djelovati da bismo s najmanje napora riješili najveće probleme? 3. 120 Environment is no longer static. Offered products and services are huge, the competition is high. Research shows that present supply of goods and services at least 30% exceeds demand (markets are saturated). New circumstances require new solutions, new challenges of the new effort. Just production of goods and services is now a past. Resources are always limited. Time as the most important factor is almost always essential. Therefore, you should know where to set the lever to move a large rock. How to act in order with a minimum of fuss resolve most problems? C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE 4. Dekompozicija lanca vrijednosti (nabavka, skladištenje, proizvodnja, prodaja, postprodajne aktivnosti) omogućava pravilnu upotrebu efekta poluge. Osim toga, ona nam omogućava pronalaženje fundamentalnih rješenja za postojeće probleme, a ne ublažavanje simptoma. Obično je efekat poluge najveći u prodaji. 4. Decomposition of the value chain (procurement, storage, production, sales, after-sales activities) to the proper use of a lever effect. In addition, it allows us to find fundamental solutions to existing problems, not the symptom. Usually the effect is greatest leverage in sales. 5. Nalaženje novih kupaca je deset puta skuplje nego zadržavanje postojećih. Ako preduzeće uspije smanjiti odlazak kupaca konkurenciji za 5%, velika je vjerovatnoća da time može udvostručiti svoju zaradu. 5. Finding new customers is ten times more expensive than retaining existing ones. If the company fails to reduce the exodus of buyers competing for 5%, it is very likely that this may double their earnings. 6. Velika opasnost preduzeću prijeti od skrivenog nezadovoljstva kupaca. Samo 4% nezadovoljnih kupaca se žali na loš kvalitet proizvoda ili usluga. 90% kupaca koji nisu zadovoljni kvalitetom proizvoda, izbjegavaće taj proizvod. Svaki od nezadovoljnih kupaca obavijestiće drugih deset do dvadeset osoba. 6. A great danger threatens the enterprise of hidden customer dissatisfaction. Only 4% of dissatisfied customers complain about the poor quality of products or services. 90% of customers who are not satisfied with the quality of the product, will avoid the product. Each of dissatisfied customers will inform the other ten to twenty people. 7. Kupci odlaze jer su nezadovoljni, iako se nikada nisu žalili. Kupac koji kompaniju napusti, više se ne vraća. 7. Customers are leaving because they are unhappy, though they never complained. A buyer who leave a company, it cannot return. 8. Kupci (uz zaposlene i njihovo znanje) predstavljaju najveću vrijednost koju preduzeće posjeduje. Kako ih zadržati? Stabilni odnosi s kupcima ključ su dugoročne uspješnosti preduzeća. 8. 9. Osiguranje i održavanje likvidnosti operativni je upravljački problem. Rješenja ovog problema izravno utiču na upravljanje poslovnim rezultatom. Da bi se ovladalo ovim operativnim problemima, treba poznavati svoje kupce, dobavljače, procese i veze među njima. 9. Maintenance of operational liquidity management is the problem. Solutions to this problem directly affect performance of management. In order to master these operational problems, company should be familiar with their customers, suppliers, processes, and connections between them. 10. Da bi cijeli ciklus operativnog kontrolinga (prikupljanje podataka, planiranje, analiza i kontrola te upravljanje) u preduzeću funkcionisao, treba imati informacionu infrastrukturu. 10. To keep the cycle Operating Controlling (data collection, planning, analysis and control, and management) in the company to work, to have the information infrastructure. Customers (with employees and their knowledge) is the largest value that the company owns. How to keep them? Stable relationships with customers are the key to long-term success of the company. 121 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA Prošlost Past Sadašnjost Present What happened? What’s happening? Why did something happen? What’s going to happen? Future What we want to happen? Shema 1. Zašto koristiti BI sistem? (Dattatreysindol, 2013) Sheme 1. Why should we use BI system? (Dattatreysindol, 2013) BI sistemi pomažu pri: (1) ispitivanju i analizi (ad hoc izještavanje, alati za analizu); (2) izvještavanju (kontrolne table, analiza trenda); (3) izradi plana, budžeta i prognoze (plan – ostvareno); i (4) upravljanju učincima (pokazateljima). BI systems help to: (1) testing and analysis (ad-hoc reporting, analysis tools); (2) reporting (dashboards, trend analysis); (3) preparation of plans, budgets and forecasts (plan - achieved); and (4) performance management (indicators). BI omogućuje organizacijama sistemsko promovisanje kulture razumijevanja i preduzimanje akcija putem: (1) donošenja odluka baziranih na činjenicama; (2) kvalitetu informacija; (3) smislenosti oblika informacija; (4) kvantiteta informacija; i (5) dijeljenja informacija. BI enables organizations to systematically promote cultural understanding and taking action through: (1) making decisions based on facts; (2) the quality of information; (3) coherence forms of information; (4) the quantity of information; and (5) sharing of information. Ko koristi BI sistem? Who uses BI system? BI sistem je izvorno bio namijenjen donosiocima odluka, odnosno ljudima koji donose poslovne odluke. U savremenim poduzećima odluke donose svi. Ne moraju svi odlučivati, ali mogu svi predlagati. To nije povratak u samoupravljanje, već pružanje prilike svima koji mogu dati doprinos očuvanju vitalnosti poduzeća. Informacije i znanje potrebni su svima. BI system was originally designed for decision makers and the people who make business decisions. Today, corporate decisions are made by everyone. Not all decisions, but all we can suggest. It’s not a return to the self-management, but to provide opportunities for all those who can contribute to the preservation of the vitality of enterprises. Information and knowledge are needed by everyone. 122 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE PODJELA SISTEMA POSLOVNE INTELIGENCIJE DIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM Komponente sistema poslovne inteligencije Components of a business intelligence system Više je različitih vrsta podjela komponenti koje, načelno, ne predstavljaju preveliku važnost u osnovnom definisanju i razumijevanju poslovne inteligencije. Jedina podjela koja na ovom nivou jeste važna je ona osnovna, koja obuhvata: There are several different types of the components that, in general, are not too important in the basic definition and understanding of business intelligence. The only division that at this level is important to basic, includes: 1.infrastrukturu - baza za skladištenje podataka, ETL alati (služe za prikupljanje podataka iz više različitih izvora, nezavisno od tehnološkog rješenja), operativno skladištenje podataka; 1. infrastructure - database for data warehousing, ETL tools (used to collect data from multiple sources, regardless of the technological solutions), the operational data storage; 2. funkcionalnost - data Mining (obrađeno zasebno u nastavku), BI platforme, aplikacije (operativne, strateške i analitičke), ad-hoc izvještavanje; 2. functionality - Data Mining (treated separately below), BI platforms, applications (operational, strategic and analytical), ad- hoc reporting; 3. organizacija - mjerenje performansi, informaciona/korporativna kultura, BI metodologija, BI centralizacija (objedinjavanje znanja i vještina); 3. organization - performance Measurement, Information/corporate culture, BI methodology, centralized BI (integration of knowledge and skills); 4. poslovanje - ključni pokazatelji uspiješnosti, transparentnost, trendovi. 4. management - the key indicators of the performance of external transparency, trends. Razvoj sistema poslovne inteligencije Development of a business intelligence system Intenzivan razvoj BI-a direktno se vezuje za period kada su preduzeća počela masovno da automatizuju svoje poslovne procese, kroz implementaciju različitih sistema, te time stvorila mogućnost generisanja velikih količina podataka. Došlo je do eksplozije podataka, koja se ogledala u eksponencijalnom rastu njihovih količina. Rastao je i broj baza u koje su se podaci smještali, ali automatizam pretrage ili nije postojao, ili je bio vrlo nerazvijen. Praktično, posjedovale su se brojni podaci koji su bili neupotrebljivi, zato što im je bilo teško pristupiti. Paralelno sa tim, razvijala se i svijest da ti podaci mogu biti od velike koristi u rukama menadžmenta. Intensive development of BI is directly linked to the period when the company began to automate their business processes through the implementation of various systems, and thus create the possibility of generating large amounts of data. There has been an explosion of data, which is reflected in the exponential growth of their quantity. Increased the number of bases that have placed the data, but automatism search did not exist or were very underdeveloped. Practically, they possessed a large amount of data that were unusable because they were difficult to access. In parallel, there was the awareness that these data can be very useful 123 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA Menadžment, međutim, ne radi sa podacima, već sa informacijama, a kako su informacije = obrađeni podaci, jasno je da je cilj bio razviti sistem koji će obrađivati podatke. Na temelju podataka koje je objavio Nigel Pendse (2008) mogu se vidjeti razvoj BI tržišta kroz period od 14 godina, kao i prognoze njegova rasta, gdje se može zapaziti kako je postepeno u periodu od 1994. godine do 2007. godine rasla vrijednost BI tržišta, iskazana u milijardama dolara, sa vrijednosti od 0,5 milijardi američkih dolara (koliko je iznosila vrijednost tržišta u 1994. godini), do iznosa od 6,9 milijardi američkih dolara (koliko je iznosila vrijednost ovog tržišta 2008. godine. in the hands of management. Management, however, does not work with data, but the information and how the information = data analyzed, it is clear that the aim was to develop a system that will process the data. Based on the data presented by Nigel Pendse (2008) can see the development of the BI market over a period of 14 years, and forecasts of its growth, which can be seen as gradually in the period since 1994th until 2007th. The rising value of the BI market, expressed in billions of dollars, with a value of $ 0.5 billion (which was the market value in 1994.), up to 5.5 billion U.S. dollars (which was the value of this market 2007a. year. Tabela 1 Rast OLAP tržišta (Ariiproject, 2008) Table 1 The growth of OLAP market Source (Ariiproject, 2008) Godina Year 1994. 1996. 1998. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. Najvažnije je naglasiti da se u ovom sistemu, redom, uočavaju sistemi za upravljanje sadržajem, ETL alati, BI alati, analitički sistemi i korisnici (menadžeri) na samom kraju. 124 Vrijednost u milijardama $ Value in billions $ 0,5 0,95 2,05 3 3,3 3,5 3,7 4,3 4,8 5,5 6,4 6,9 The most important thing is to emphasize that in this system, respectively, it should be noted content management systems, ETL tools, BI tools, analytical systems and users (managers) at the end. C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Shema 2. Infrastrukture BI (Passionned Group, 2013) Scheme 2. BI infrastructure (Passionned Group, 2013) KARAKTERISTIKE POSLOVNE INTELIGENCIJE CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Osnovne karakteristike sistema poslovne inteligencije (eng. Business Intelligence) su: (1) jedinstven pristup informacijama; (2) blagovremeni odgovori na poslovna pitanja; i (3) korišćenje BI sistema u svim dijelovima organizacije. Main features of Business Intelligence (Business Intelligence), are the following: (1) unified access to information; (2) answers to business questions, at the time and (3) the use of BI systems throughout the in every part of organization. Ove tri osnovne karakteristike sistema ujedno su i tri osnovne prednosti koje implementacija i uvođenje ovog sistema u poslovni proces donosi. These are the three basic characteristics of the system, which is also referred to as the three primary advantages of introduction and implementation of this system in the business process brings. Prednosti sistema poslovne inteligencije The benefits of Business Intelligence Kao osnovne prednosti korišćenja sistema poslovne inrteligencije navode se sljedeće karakteristike koje ovaj sistem pruža: (1) poboljšanje operativne efikasnosti; (2) eliminacija zaostalih izvještaja i kašnjenja; (3)pronalaženje uzroka problema i preduzimanje mjera u skladu sa tim; (4) bolja komunikacija sa kupcima i dobavljačima; As the primary advantages of using systems Business Intelligence, provides the following characteristics of the system: (1) improve operational efficiency; (2) the elimination of the backlog of reports and delays; (3) finding the cause of the problem and take measures accordingly; (4) better communication with customers and suppli125 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA (5) identifikacija „rasipanja resursa“ i smanjenje troškova zaliha; (6) prodaja informacija klijentima, partnerima i dobavljačima; (7) poboljšanje strategije sa boljom marketinškom analizom; (8) davanje korisnicima sredstava da donose bolje odluke; i (9) suočavanje pretpostavki sa činjenicama. (Izbačena stavka koja je glasila Iskoristite vašu investiciju u ERP ili skladište podataka). ers; (5) identification of” waste of resources” and reducing inventory costs; (6) sales information to customers, partners and suppliers; (7) improving strategies with better marketing analysis; (8) gives users the means to make better decisions; (9) dealing assumptions with facts. (Dropped item which said Take your investment in ERP or data warehouse). Ograničenja sistema poslovne inteligencije The limitations of business intelligence systems Osnovni nedostaci, odnosno i ograničenja koja prate, sisteme poslovne inteligencije su: (1) visoka cijena softvera; (2) skupa i vremenski duga obuka za korišćenje; (3) zahtjeva široku paletu različitih stručnjaka iz oblasti tehnologije; (4) miješanje podataka koji potiču iz različitih izvora; (5) slanje zahtjeva za dobijanje potrebnih informacija od sistema poslovne inteligencije može biti mučno i dugotrajno sa aspekta korisnika sistema. The main disadvantages, and we can say restrictions that accompany such systems, like business intelligence systems are: (1) the high cost of software; (2) expensive and long time training to use; (3) requires a large range of experts in the field of technology; (4) mixing data from different sources; (5) send requests to retrieve data from business intelligence systems can be tedious and time-consuming, with aspect of the system users. IMPLEMENTACIJA I PRIMJENA IMPLEMENTATIONS AND APPLICATIONS Uvođenje BI sistema je proces kome, praktično, nema kraja. U vrijeme nestabilne okoline, hiperkonkurencije koja postaje sve agresivnija, a, time, i neizvjesne budućnosti, poslovna inteligencija mora neprestano da se razvija, jer zahtjevi analize i prognoze postaju sve složeniji, naročito kada se doda potreba za velikom brzinom obrade i izvršavanja (real time kao ključni pojam informisanja danas). The introduction of BI systems is a process which is practically endless. At the time of the unstable environment that is becoming hyper aggressive, and therefore an uncertain future, business intelligence must constantly evolve as requirements analysis and forecasts become more complex, especially when added to the need for high speed processing and performance (real-time as a key notion of information now). Gdje kupiti BI sistem i koja je njegova cijena? Where to buy a BI system and how much it cost? Postavlja se pitanje cijene ovakvih sistema i troškova informacija. U 21. vijeku, vijeku informacija i znanja, cijena informacije jednaka je cijeni opstanka na tržištu. Uvođenje sistema za upravljanje poslovnim informacijama je isplativa investicija. Knji- Raises the question of the price of such systems and cost information. In the 21 Ages, Ages of information and knowledge, price of information is equal to the price of survival in the market. Establishment of a system for management of business information is a profitable 126 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE govodstvo ne bilježi oportunitetne troškove loših poslovnih odluka na osnovi nedostatka informacija. Takve promašaje bilježe berza i konkurencija. Ta dva”mjerna instrumenta” nepogrešivo znaju kazniti slabosti poslovanja. BI sistem ne postoji kao gotov proizvod, postoje proizvođači koji nude tehnološke platforme i znanja za implementaciju. Nema rješenja s police. Razlog tome jest činjenica da modeli odlučivanja jesu slični, ali strategija, segmentacija tržišta i proizvoda, procesi i veze među njima su različite. Heterogeni su takođe izvori podataka koji ”hrane” ove sisteme. investment. Accounting does not record opportunity costs of bad business decisions based on lack of information. Such failures are recorded stock market and competition. These two”gauges” unmistakably know penalize weaknesses of business. BI system does not exist as a finished product, there are manufacturers that offer technology platforms and knowledge to implement. There are no off the shelf solutions. The reason for this is the fact that the decision models are similar, but the strategy, market segmentation and product, processes and relationships between them are different. Are also heterogeneous data sources that”food” these systems. Veliki dobavljači proizvođači se ugrubo dijele u dvije grupe baza podataka - IBM, Oracle i Microsoft - čije baze služe kao temelj za izgradnju skladišta podataka. Tu platformu oni koriste kao osnovicu. Klijentima takođe nude i front-end alate za krajnjeg korisnika kao i implementaciju i poslovne modele. Big manufacturers are roughly divided into two groups of databases - IBM, Oracle and Microsoft - whose bases are used as a basis for building a data warehouse. That platform they use as a base. Clients also offer front-end tools for end users, implementation and business models. Izvorni BI dobavljači, od kojih treba izdvojiti četiri velika koji imaju značajnu prisutnost i na našem regionalnom tržištu – SAS, Cognos, Business Objects i Micro Strategy. Njihov glavni fokus su front-end alati za krajnje korisnike koji se mogu vezati na bilo koju od platformi za bazu podataka. Oni su, izuzev SAS-a koji je prisutan s lokalnim kancelarijima u zemljama našeg regiona, prisutni preko ovlaštenih distributera. Original manufacturers, and from which need to allocate the four great that have a significant presence on the regional market - SAS, Cognos, Business Objects and Micro Strategy. Their main focus is the front-end tools for end users that can be connected to any of the platforms for the database. They are, except for the SAS which is present with subsidiaries in the countries of our region, present through authorized distributors. Primjena Application Mnoge velike i srednje firme aktivno pristupaju pojmu poslovne inteligencije, razvijaju i implementiraju takve sisteme i koriste ih u svom elektronskom poslovanju. Firme uspijevaju pretvoriti informacije u poslovnu inteligenciju, poslovnu inteligenciju u korporativno znanje, a kolektivno znanje u povećani profit. U skladu sa ranije rečenim, može se navesti nekoliko oblasti u kojima je pogodna primjena sistema poslovne inteligencije: (1) smanjenje operativnih troškova, realizacija ciljeva prodaje, unapređenje sistema nabavke; (2) korišćenje OLAP-a (OnLine Many large and medium-sized companies active approach to the notion of business intelligence, development and implementation of these systems and use them in your e-business. Companies thrive to turn information into business intelligence, business intelligence in corporate knowledge and collective knowledge to increase profits. According to the previous description, can be specified several areas in which suitable application of business intelligence: (1) reduction in operating costs, the realization of sales targets, improving the procurement system; 127 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA Analitical Processing) za smanjivanje troškova IT sektora, otkrivanje novih mogućnosti za dobit, unapređenje upravljanja troškovima; (3) korišćenje Data Mininga za pronalaženje ključnih parametara vezanih za određeni segment kupaca. (2) Using OLAP (OnLine Analytical Processing) to reduce the cost of IT sector, discover new opportunities for profit improvement cost management; (3) using Data Mining to find the key parameters related to a specific customer segment. Sve navedene primjene moguće su samo uz korišćenje sofisticiranih alata i aplikacija, ukoliko su podaci pripremljeni u formatima pogodnim za razne vrste analiza. Za poslovne korisnike je od važnosti da imaju alate i aplikacije kojima će biti u stanju da analiziraju podatke, dok je za IT osobe važno da posjeduju aplikacije i alate za stvaranje i upravljanje okruženjem za poslovnu inteligenciju. U tu svrhu koriste se različiti alati kao što su: (1) namjenske aplikacije; (2) alati za izvršavanje upita; (3) OLAP alati; (4) alati za statističku analizu; i (5) alati za Data Mining i dr. All these applications are only possible with the use of sophisticated tools and applications, if the data are prepared in a format suitable for various types of analysis. For business users it is important to have the tools and applications you will be able to analyze the data, and the IT people important to have the applications and tools to create and manage the environment for business intelligence. For this purpose, various tools such as: (1) dedicated applications; (2) tools for querying; (3) OLAP tools; (4) tools for statistical analysis; (5) tools for Data Mining and others. Tehnike integracije poslovne inteligencije Techniques of integration of business intelligence Pitanje integracije u postojeće poslovne procese je jedno od osnovnih pitanja na početku primjene bilo kog sistema. Odgovor je identifikacija uloge BI-a u svakom od procesa, zatim integracija u te procese i primjena u okviru postojećih informacionih sistema. Bitno je razumijeti da su ljudi ti koji sprovode procese, a aplikacije samo alati kojima se oni služe. Poslovna inteligencija se može integrisati u poslovne procese preduzeća na nekoliko načina: The issue of integration into existing business processes is one of the fundamental questions at the beginning of implementation of any system. The answer is to identify the role of BI in each process, then the integration of these processes and the application of the existing information systems. It is important to understand that the people who carry out these processes, and applications just tools they used. Business intelligence can be integrated into the business processes of the company in several ways: 1. integracijom analitičkih aplikacija sa operativnim aplikacijama korišćenjem”enterprise” portala da bi podacima mogli pristupiti i interni i eksterni korisnici; 1. 2. ugrađivanjem analitičkih metoda u operativne aplikacije u procesu razvoja aplikacija; 2. incorporating analytical methods in operational applications in the development of applications; 3. uvođenjem web servisa koji će dinamički integrisati analitičke metode internim ili partnerskim operativnim aplikacijama radi podrške zajedničkom poslovanju. 3. the introduction of web services to dynamically integrate analytical methods of internal operational or partner applications, to support joint operations. 128 integration of analytic applications with operational applications using the” enterprise” data portal to gain access to internal and external customers; C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE POJAM I ZNAČAJ DATA MININGA THE CONCEPT AND IMPORTANCE OF DATA MINING Za bolje razumijevanje istraživanja i samog područja rudarenja podataka prvo je potrebno objasniti njegovo značenje. Analogija s rudarstvom je očigledna. U potrazi za rudom koja je sakrivena negdje u planini, neophodno je duboko kopati, izbaciti velike količine zemlje i kamena (jalovine, u našem slučaju nepotrebnih podataka), a, kada se jednom naiđe na žilu, neophodno je pratiti je cijelom dužinom. Rudarenje podataka je prirodna evolucija tehnologije, a koja upotrebljava koncepte, metode i tehnike različitih disciplina kao što su baze podataka, statistika i vještačka inteligencija. Tehnologija baza podataka se razvila iz primitivnih u sofisticirane i moćne sisteme baza podataka kakve danas poznajemo. Taj razvoj omogućio je bilježenje i sakupljanje ogromnih količina podataka, što je neizbježno dovelo i do potrebe obrade i analize tih podataka, a sve u svrhu dobijanja korisnih informacija i znanja. Same tehnike rudarenja podataka rezultat su dugog procesa istraživanja i razvoja statističkih algoritama. Ova evolucija je započela još kad su poslovni podaci prvi put uskladišteni u kompjutere, a nastavlja se kontinuirano s unapređenjem pristupa podacima i u posljednje vrijeme, generisanjem tehnologija koje omogućuju korisnicima navigaciju kroz podatke u realnom vremenu. Proces rudarenja podataka danas je moguće provoditi zato što je potpomognut s tri tehnologije koje su sada dovoljno sazrele: (1) moćnom multiprocesorskom računarskom tehnologijom; (2) tehnologijom za masivno prikupljanje podataka; i (3) algoritamskim tehnikama za rudarenje podataka. For a better understanding the research areas of Data Mining is first necessary to explain its meaning. The analogy with mining is obvious. Looking for a truck that is hidden somewhere in the mountains, it is deep to dig out large amounts of soil and rock (overburden, in our case, unnecessary data), and once it finds a vein, it is necessary to follow the entire length. Data mining is the natural evolution of technology, which uses the concepts, methods and techniques of different disciplines such as databases, statistics and artificial intelligence. Database technology evolved from primitive to sophisticated and powerful database systems as we know them. This development has enabled the recording and collecting huge amounts of data that inevitably led to the need for processing and analysis of these data, with the purpose of getting useful information and knowledge. Same Data Mining techniques are the result of a long process of research and development of statistical algorithms. This evolution started in the business when the first data stored in computers, and continues with the continuous improvement of data access in recent times, generating technologies that allow users to navigate through the data in real time. The process of Data Mining is now possible to implement because it is supported by the three technologies that are now sufficiently mature: (1) powerful multiprocessor computer technology, (2) technology for mass data collection and (3) algorithmic techniques for Data Mining. U evoluciji od poslovnih podataka do poslovnih informacija i znanja, svaki novi korak građen je na prethodnom. Zahvaljujući Data Mining-u, moguće je predvidjeti trend tržišta ili ponašanje konzumenata i na taj način obezbijediti uspijeh firme ili proizvoda. To se postiže analizom podataka iz raznih perspektiva i pronalaženjem veza i odnosa između naizgled nepovezanih informacija. In the evolution from business data to business information and knowledge, each new step is built on the previous one. Thanks to Data Mining, it is possible to predict the trend of the market or the behavior of consumers and thus ensure the success of the company or product. This is achieved by analyzing data from different perspectives and finding connections and relationships between seemingly 129 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA Na primjer, dinamični pristup podacima je kritična tačka za svrdlanje (eng. drill-through) u aplikacijama za navigaciju podacima, a osposobljenost za skladištenje ogromnih baza podataka je kritična za proces rudarenja podataka. Proces Data Mininga neraskidivo je vezan za računare. Uz pomoć posebnog softvera, sistemi analiziraju podatke iz različitih uglova, pronalaze hipoteze, isprobavaju ih i uče na prethodnim iskustvima. Treba uvijek imati u vidu da je softver samo alatka i da je i dalje potrebno ljudsko prisustvo, koje će dati posljednju riječ. Ali, u prvoj fazi obrade kompjuterski sistemi su nezamjenjivi zbog svoje brzine. Za razliku od čoveka, kome bi neka očigledna veza između dva podatka promakla, kompjuteru takva greška ne može da se dogodi (uslovno rečeno). unrelated information. For example, dynamic data access is a critical point for svrdlanje (Eng. drill -through) in applications for navigation data and the ability to store huge data base is critical for the process of Data Mining. The process of Data Mining is closely related to computers. With the help of special software, systems analyze data from many different angles, find a hypothesis, experiment with them and learn from previous experiences. It should always be borne in mind that the software is only a tool and that it is still necessary to human presence, which will give the last word. But, in the first stage of processing computer systems are indispensable, because of its speed. Unlike men, who would let an obvious connection between the two data missed, such a computer error can not happen (so to speak). Primjer 1: Lanac supermarketa. Lanac supermarketa u Americi je, koristeći Oracle-ov softver za analizu podataka, otkrio da su muškarci koji su kupovali pelene četvrtkom i subotom najčešće kupovali i paket piva. Dublja analiza otkrila je da su ovi kupci sedmičnu kupovinu obavljali subotom. Četvrtkom su kupovali samo nekoliko proizvoda, a pivo su kupovali kako bi im se našlo za dolazeći vikend. Example 1: Supermarket chain. The chain of supermarkets in the United States, using Oracle software to analyze the data, BI found that the men who had bought diapers on Thursdays and Saturdays usually buy a package of beer. Closer analysis revealed that these customers purchase performed weekly on Saturdays. Thursdays bought only several products, and beer are bought in order to be found for the coming weekend. Zahvaljujući ovoj informaciji, lanac supermarketa je povećao prihode tako što je vitrinu sa pivom pomjerio bliže polici sa pelenama. Jasno je da bi svakom ljudskom ekspertu veza između muškaraca, pelena, piva i određenih dana u nedelji promakla, ali ne i nepristrasnoj logici kompjutera. Due to this information, the supermarket chain has increased its revenues by a glass case of beer moved closer to the shelf with the diapers. Clearly, the expert in every human relationship between men, diapers, beer and certain days of the week missed, but not the impartial logic of computers. Primjer 2: Poštanska aplikacija Pošte Crne Gore. Poštanska aplikacija za Poštu Crne Gore se bazira na prikupljanju i čuvanju trenutnih, odnosno dnevnih, podataka o poštanskim transakcijama obavljenim na teritoriji cijele Crne Gore. Example 2: Mail application Montenegro Post. Postal applications for the Post of Montenegro is based on the collection and preservation of the current, that is, daily, data on postal transactions conducted on the territory of Montenegro. Jedan dio tih podataka se transformiše u korisne informacije i skladišti da bi se kasnije iskoristili u različitim analizama za potrebe menadžmenta. Some of the data is transformed into useful information and stores it for later use in various analyzes for management. 130 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE Tabela 2 Prikaz četiri revolucionarna koraka koja su pružila mogućnost brzih i preciznih odgovora kakve danas zahtijeva savremeno poslovanje (Panian, Klepac, 2003) Period 1960-te 1960-th Evolucijski koraci Evolutionary steps Prikupljanje podataka Data Collection 1980-te 1980-th Pristup podacima Access to data 1990-te 1990-th Skladištenje podataka i sistemi za podršku odlučivanju [Data warehousing and decision support systems] Danas Today Rudarenje podataka Data Mining Table 2: Overview of four revolutionary steps as the opportunity of fast and accurate answers that modern business requires today (Panian, Klepac, 2003) Poslovni zahtjevi Business Requirements Koliki je ukupni prihod kopanije u posljednjih pet godina? [What is the total income of the company in the last five years?] Tehnologija Technology Kompjuter, trake, diskovi [Computers, tapes, discs] Karakteristike Characteristics Statička isporuka istorijskih podataka [Static delivery of historical data] Kolika je bila prodaja po Relacijske Dinamična određenim prodajnim jedinibaze podataka, isporuka istoricama na području Dalmacije u SQL, ODBC jskih podataka proteklom mjesecu? [Relational da- na jednom nivou [How much was the sale by tabases, SQL, [Dynamic delivcertain selling units in Dalmatia ODBC] ery of historical in the last month?] data on a single level] Kolika je bila prodaja u OLAP, Dinamična određenim prodajnim jedinimultidi-menisporuka istoricama na području Dalmacije zionalne baze jskih podataka u proteklom mjesecu? Istraži podataka, na više nivoa (drill down) lokalitet Split skladište poda- [Dynamic deliv[How much was the sale of taka ery of historical certain retail units in Dalmatia [OLAP, Muldata at multiple in the last month? tidimen-sional levels] Explore (drill down) - Split databases, data area] warehouse] Šta se može dogoditi s prodaNapredni Predvidiva jom na lokalitetu Split u algoritmi, i proaktivna sljedećem mjesecu? Zašto? multiprocesor- isporuka infor[What can happen to the sale of ski kompjuteri, macija the site split in the next month? masivne baze [Predictable and Why?] podataka proactive infor[Advanced al- mation delivery] gorithms, multiproce-ssor computers, massive databases] Osnovni tipovi Data Mininga The main types of Data Mining Dva osnovna tipa rudarenja podataka: (1) verifikacija hipoteze – cilj je provjeriti da li su neka ideja ili utisak o važnosti odnosa među određenim podacima utemeljeni ili ne; (2) otkrivanje novih znanja – među nekim pojavama mogu postojati neki još nepoznati, a Two basic types of Data Mining: (1) verification of hypotheses - the goal is to check whether an idea or impression of the importance of the relationship between specific data based or not ; (2) found new knowledge - among some phenomena may be some 131 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA statistički važni odnosi koje čovjek ni iskustvom niti svojim intelektualnim sposobnostima ne može spoznati. still unknown, and statistically important relationships that a man of experience or their intellectual capacity can not be known. Rudarenje podataka je izrazito multidisciplinarno područje i obuhvata: baze podataka, ekspertne sisteme, teoriju informacija, statistiku, matematiku, logiku, te čitav niz pridruženih područja. Područja u kojima se rudarenje podataka može uspješno primjenjivati su raznolika, na primjer, poslovanje preduzeća, ekonomija, mehanika, medicina, genetika itd. Rudarenje podataka primjenjivo je u svim onim područjima gdje se raspolaže velikom masom podataka na osnovu kojih se žele otkriti određene pravilnosti, veze i zakonitosti. Čitav niz faktora može uticati na ishod nekog događaja, a zadatak je rudarenja podataka otkriti najznačajnije među njima i njihove karakteristike s obzirom na ciljana stanja. Data mining is a highly multidisciplinary field, including: databases, expert systems, information theory, statistics, mathematics, logic, and a number of associated areas. The areas in which Data Mining can be successfully applied are varied. For example, the company’s operations, economics, mechanics, medicine, genetics and so on. Data mining is applicable in all areas where it has a large mass of data which are to discover regularities, relations and laws. A variety of factors can affect the outcome of an event, a task of Data Mining to discover the most important among them, and their characteristics with respect to the target state. Osnovne tehnologije za Data Mining Basic Technology for Data Mining Osnovne tehnike za rudarenje podataka su: (1) statističke metode, (2) genetički algoritmi, (3) neuralne mreže, (4) stabla odlučivanja, (5) vještačka inteligencija, (6) asocijacijska pravila, itd. Basic techniques of Data Mining are: (1) statistical methods, (2) genetic algorithms, (3) neural networks, (4) decision trees, (4) artificial intelligence, (6)asocijacijske rules etc.. Analitička statistika je osnova tih novih procesa za otkrivanje znanja. Iz statističke perspektive, rudarenje podataka se može opisati kao računarski automatizovana istraživačka analiza podataka iz (obično) velikih i složenih baza podataka s različitih platformi, lokacija, operativnih sistema i softvera. Rudarenje podataka je izuzetno značajno u sistemima sa mnoštvom podataka, u kojima je moguće pronaći činjenice za koje se nije ni znalo da postoje. Analytical statistics are the basis of these new processes for knowledge discovery. From the statistical perspective, Data Mining can be described as computer automated exploratory data analysis of (usually ) large and complex databases with different platforms, location, operating system and software. Data mining is particularly important for systems with a large amount of data, which can be found in the fact that you did not even know existed Potrebna infrastruktura Infrastructure Softver za Data Mining je pristupačan kako za velike mainframe sisteme tako i za samostalne PC platforme. Cijena sistema varira od nekoliko hiljada pa do nekoliko miliona dolara, za najveće sisteme. Dva osnovna uslova za izbor odgovarajuće platforme jesu Software for Data Mining is affordable for large mainframe systems and for individual PC platforms. Price system varies from a few thousand dollars to several million dollars for the largest systems. Two main conditions to select the appropriate platform 132 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE veličina baze podataka i kompleksnost zahtjeva. Velika baza podataka sa sobom povlači veliki broj podataka koje treba skladištiti i, održavati i samim tim, zahtijeva moćniji sistem. Kompleksnost zahtjeva i njihov veliki broj takođe povećavaju potrebu za procesorskom moći. Ubrzavanje rješavanja upita može se postići indeksiranjem podataka. Takođe, paralelno procesiranje značajno ubrzava rad s velikim bazama podataka. Stotine paralelno vezanih (običnih) kompjutera mogu da postignu performanse jednog superkompjutera. are database size and complexity of the application. Large database entails a large amount of data that must be stored and maintained and, thus, requires a more powerful system. The complexity of the application and its many also increase the amount of processing power. Accelerating resolving queries can be achieved by indexing the data. In addition, parallel processing significantly accelerates from large databases. Hundreds of parallel (common ) computer can achieve a performance supercomputers. Kako funkcioniše? - Metode Data Mining-a How does it work? - Methods for Data Mining Dva osnovna cilja DM projekata se mogu svrstati u dvije kategorije: (1) predviđanje i (2) deskripcija. Two main goals DM projects can be classified into two categories: (1) prediction and (3) describing. Predviđanjem se pokušava iz postojećih podataka prognozirati buduće vrijednosti varijabli (npr. prodaje), dok se deskripcijom nastoje pronaći uzorci u podacima čijim se interpretiranjem može objasniti ponašanje čitavog sistema. Jedna od faza u cijelom procesu otkrivanja znanja je i mapiranje konkretnih ciljeva analize s Data Mining metodama. Ipak, mogu se definicati 3 osnovne Data Mining metode: (1) klasifikacija, (2) klastering i (3) asocijacija. Predictive attempts from existing data to predict future values of the variables ( for example: sales), while the descript, trying to find patterns in the data, whose interpretation of be explained by the behavior of the entire system. One of the stages in the process of knowledge discovery and mapping of specific objectives of the analysis with Data Mining methods. Three basic Data Mining methods can be defined: (1) classification, (2) clustering and (3) associations. Klasifikacija se bavi svrstavanjem objekata u neku od predefinisanih kategorija. Primjer klasifikacije je razvrstavanje tražitelja kredita u nisko, srednje ili visoko rizičnu grupu. Ono što će se desiti „ispod haube“ je da će Data Mining algoritam proći kroz bazu bivših korisnika kredita te utvrditi koje to karakteristike imaju, recimo, korisnici koji nisu uredno vraćali kredit. Pomoću tih karakteristika banka može tražitelja kredita svrstati u neku od kategorija, te tražiti veće ili manje osiguranje povrata sredstava. Classification deals with the classification of objects into one of the predefined categories. An example of classification is the classification of applicants into low, medium or high-risk group. What happens”under the hood” is that, that Data Mining algorithms will pass through the base of the former borrower and will determine which characteristics they have, for example, people who are not duly returned the loan. Using these characteristics, the bank can loan seekers fall into these categories and look more or less insurance refund. Klasteriranje se takođe bavi svrstavanjem objekata u kategorije, samo ovdje te kategorije nisu unaprijed definisane, što problem čini većim. Primjer primjene te metode je razvrstavanje kupaca u kategorije prema Clustering is also concerned with grouping objects into categories, but here you are not pre- defined categories, which makes the problem bigger. An example application of the method is the classification of consumers into catego133 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA kojima se onda mogu definisati različite marketinške strategije. Kupci su različiti, različitih ukusa, uvjerenja, stila kupovine i, što je najvažnije, različite profitabilnosti. Zato kupce treba i različito tretirati. ries according to which you can define a different marketing strategy. Customers are different, different tastes, beliefs, style, shopping, and, most importantly, different profitability. Therefore, customers should also be treated differently. Asocijacija se bavi pitanjem koje se stvari dešavaju istovremeno. Tako je npr. u Data Mining-u poznata metoda potrošačke korpe gdje se gleda koji se proizvodi često kupuju zajedno. Analizom podataka možete otkriti da se često uz pjenu za brijanje kupuju i žileti što je očigledno. Međutim, mogu se otkriti i neke skrivene veze poput primjera piva i pelena (prethodno navedeni primjer). Proces rudarenja podataka sastoji se od više faza koje jedna osoba samostalno ne može izvršiti. Te faze možemo posmatrati iz tri perspektive: The Association deals with the issue that things are happening at the same time. Thus, for example. in Data Mining methods known consumer basket which is seen to be products are often bought together. Data analysis can reveal that often the shaving cream and razor blades buy, and that is the obvious. However, one can discover some hidden links as examples of beer and diapers (the above example). The process of Data Mining consists of several phases that one person alone can not accomplish. These stages can be viewed from three perspectives: 1. Problemska perspektiva koja je važna na samom početku i kraju rudarenja podataka. Sastoji se od odabira problema, njegova definisanja, te procjene i primjene znanja. Osoba koja obavlja ove zadatke može se jednostavno nazvati korisnik. 1. Problem solving perspective, which is important at the beginning and end of Data Mining. It consists of a selection problem, its definition, and the evaluation and application of knowledge. A person who performs these tasks can be easily called by the user. 2. Podatkovna perspektiva koja obuhvata sve zadatke vezane uz pripremu podataka za njihovo rudarenje, a obavlja je informatičar. 2. Data perspective that includes all tasks associated with preparing data for mining them, and perform a computer scientist. 3. Metodološka perspektiva se sastoji od svih zadataka vezanih uz analizu podataka, metode selekcije, implementacije, prezentacije i interpretacije rezultata. Osoba zadužena za te zadatke je stručnjak rudarenja podataka (eng. data miner). 3. Methodological perspective consists of all the tasks related to data analysis, method selection, implementation, presentation and interpretation of results. The person in charge of these tasks is an expert Data Mining (Eng. data miner). Primjene Data Mininga Applications of Data Mining Primjena Data Mininga je neograničena. Pomenuta je primjena u trgovini radi poboljšanja prodaje nekih proizvoda. Takođe, moguće je predvidjeti reakciju tržišta na novi proizvod i odrediti kada je najbolji trenutak za njegovu promociju. Ova tehnologija nalazi primjenu i u bankarstvu, gdje je, recimo, moguće na osnovu ranijih slučajeva odrediti da li pojedinac spada u rizičnu grupu, kada je u pitanju davanje kredita. U medicini može da se odredi koju terapiju treba prepisati pa- Application of Data Mining is unlimited. The said application is in store for boosting sales of some products. Also, it is possible to predict the market reaction to the new product, and when is the best time of his promotion. This technology is also used in the banking industry, where, for example, be based on past cases to determine whether an individual belongs to a risk group when it comes to giving credit. In medicine, it can be determined that therapy be prescribed to the 134 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE cijentu. Elektrane ili telefonske kompanije mogu da predvide kada će i koliki biti vrhunac opterećenja kako bi ga izbjegle. U novije vrijeme javlja se pojam Data Warehousing, koji se ondosi na centralizaciju svih podataka u jedno”skladište”. Centralizacija podataka dramatično ubrzava pristup podacima i njihovu analizu. Podaci koji se nalaze u ovim skladištima mogu biti dostupni svima. patient. Power stations and telephone companies can not predict when and how to be culmination of the load, in order to avoid it. More recently appears the notion Data Warehousing, that apply to the centralization of all data in a” warehouse”. Centralization of data dramatically accelerates data access and analysis. Information contained in this repository can be made available to everyone. Kratkoročno gledano, najveća primjena Data Mininga vezana je za maksimiziranje profita u preduzećima. Pogled malo dalje u budućnost pretpostavlja Data Mining integrisan u svakodnevicu, gdje bismo, zahvaljujući ovoj tehnologiji, mogli da planiramo rutu do posla (što na neki način već možemo) ili da tražimo najpovoljniju prodavnicu za kupovinu svakodnevnih namirnica. U nauci je recimo popularna primjena Data Mininga u astronomiji, gdje se automatski klasifikuju nebeski objekati. Trenutno je vrlo popularna primjena Data Mining metoda u bioinformatici, genetskom inženjeringu i farmaciji. U posljednje vrijeme sve se više i državne agencije zanimaju za Data Mining. In the short term, the biggest application of Data mining is related to the maximization of profits in companies. Look a little further into the future Data Mining assumes integrated into everyday life, where we, through this technology, we can plan a route to work (which in some ways, but we can ) or to look for the best shop to buy everyday goods. In science, for example, is a popular application of Data Mining in astronomy, where it is automatic classification of celestial objects. There are a very popular application of Data Mining methods in bioinformatics, genetic engineering and pharmacy. Lately, more and more government agencies are interested in Data Mining. Data Mining se može zlonamjerno iskoristiti, prije svega, narušavajući privatnost. Postoje strahovi da bi osiguravajuće kompanije mogle koristiti Data Mining tehnike kako bi određenim grupama korisnika uskratile pravo na zdravstveno osiguranje. Glavno područje primjene Data Mininga je ipak biznis. Marketing je područje gdje se Data Mining, vjerojatno, najviše koristi kako bi se identifikovale pojedine grupe kupaca i predvidjelo njihovo ponašanje. Na primjer, budući da je izračunato da je prosječno 6 puta teže dobiti novog kupca nego zadržati postojećeg, korisno je znati zašto kupci odlaze. Međutim, takođe je izračunato da se u prosjeku samo 4% kupaca žali. Data Mining može pružiti odgovor na pitanje zašto preostalih 96% kupaca odlazi. Još jedna česta primjena je otkrivanje prevara koju koriste poreske službe i državne agencije za sprečavanje organizovanog kriminala. Specijalizovana služba američkog ministarstva finansija koristi takav jedan sistem za otkrivanje pranja Data mining can be used, maliciously. For example, for compromising privacy. There are fears that insurance companies can use Data Mining techniques to certain groups of people denied the right to health insurance. The main area of application of Data Mining is still a business. Marketing is an area where Data Mining is probably the most used, in order to identify specific groups of customers and predict their behavior. For example, since it is calculated that an average of 6 times harder to get a new customer than to retain an existing one, it is useful to know why customers are leaving. However, it is also calculated that, on average, only 4 % of customers complain. Data Mining can provide an answer to why the remaining 96 % of customers leave. Another common application is the detection of deception used by the tax office and state agencies in fighting organized crime. Specialized Service U.S. Treasury uses such a system to detect money laundering since 135 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA novca još od 1993. godine. Otkrivanje prevara pomoću Data Mininga se često koristi i u telekomunikacijskoj industriji, te kompanijama koje izdaju kreditne kartice. Jedna od nekonvencionalnih primjena Data Mininga su sistemi NBA klubova New York Knicksa i Miami Heata koji analiziraju uzorke u igri protivničkih ekipa. Na duge staze, Data Mining može da obezbijedi lijekove za današnje neizlečive bolesti ili čak da pruži odgovor na pitanje porijekla univerzuma. 1993. year. Fraud with Data Mining is often used in the telecommunications industry, and companies that issue credit cards. One of the unconventional application of Data Mining systems is NBA teams, the New York Knicks and Miami Heat - analyzing samples to play other teams. In the long term, Data Mining can provide cures for today’s incurable diseases or even to give an answer to the question of the origin of the universe. Data Mining kod nas Data Mining on our region Naš region i nije baš svjetski lider na području Data Mininga. I u svijetu su Data Mining projekti još relativno rijetki, kao i kod BI, najveća prepreka široj upotrebi Data Mininga je to što u dobrom dijelu slučajeva kod nas ne preovladava ekonomski kriterijum. Osim toga, preduslov za takve projekte je konkurencija. Data Mining projekti su skupi, kompleksni, dugotrajni i postoji velik rizik da uopšte neće završiti uspješno. Bez prisile konkurencije, nitko se neće upuštati u takav rizik. Jedina dva sektora u nas u kojima vlada prava konkurencija, trgovina i bankarstvo, ujedno su i dva sektora iz kojih dolazi najveći broj BI projekata. Većina velikih trgovačkih i financijskih kuća u nas su već prije nekoliko godina počele s prvim Business Intelligence projektima. Primjer: Raiffeisen banka se Data Miningom služi za različite marketinške analize. Our region is not exactly a world leader in the field of Data Mining. In the world of Data Mining projects are still relatively rare, as in BI, the biggest obstacle to the wider use of Data Mining is that to a great extent in our case is not prevalent economic criteria. In addition, the requirement for such projects is competition. Data mining projects are expensive, complex, longterm and there is a high risk that it will not complete successfully. Without coercion competition, no one is going to indulge in that kind of risk. The only two sectors in the U.S. in which there is real competition, trade and banking, are also the two sectors from which the largest number of BI projects. Most of the major commercial and financial houses in the U.S. have already started several years ago with the first Business Intelligence projects. Example: Raiffeisen Bank in Data Mining machine is used for various market analysis. PRIMJER SISTEMA POSLOVNE INTELIGENCIJE EXAMPLE OF A BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM Oracle BI EE - Moderna poslovna inteligencija Oracle BI EE - Modern business intelligence Oracle Business Intelligence Suite baziran je na modernoj Veb servisno orijentisanoj arhitekturi (SOA) koja osigurava istinsku poslovnu inteligenciju sljedeće generacije. Oracle Business Intelligence Suite Enterprise Edition (OBI EE) je zajedničko ime za integrisanu grupu alata poslovne inteligencije sastavljenu Oracle Business Intelligence Suite is based on modern Web service-oriented architecture (SOA ) that provides a true next-generation business intelligence. Oracle Business Intelligence Suite Enterprise Edition ( OBI EE) is the common name for the integrated set of business intelligence tools consisting of 136 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE od sveobuhvatnog skupa proizvoda koji omogućavaju: (1) korporacijsko izvještavanje i ad hoc analize; (2) mobilnu analitiku i diskonektirane analize; (3) interaktivne BI Dashboard i portalsku tehnologiju; (4) integraciju sa Microsoft Office-om i Excel-om; (4) iteligentan radni tok (workflow); (5) proaktivnu inteligenciju i upozorenja u realnom vremenu... a comprehensive set of products that allow: (1) corporate reporting and ad hoc analysis; (2) mobile and disconnected analytics analysis; (3) interactive BI dashboard and portaltechnology; (4) integration with Microsoft Office and Excel; (5) intelligent workflow (workflow ); (6) proactive intelligence and alerts in real time. Slika 1. Kontrolna tabla Oracle BI EE (Oracle, 2008) Picture 1. Oracle BI EE Dashboard (Oracle, 2008) ZAKLJUČAK CONCLUSION Sistem poslovne inteligencije je takav sistem koji čuva informacije i znanje o konkurenciji, kupcima, dobavljačima, procesima. On omogućava poslovno pregovaranje i brojčano argumentovan nastup prema kupcima i dobavljačima, kvalitetno operativno planiranje, praćenje ponašanja konkurencije, posmatranje pojedinih tržišnih segmenata te predviđanje budućih pojava. Takođe, sistem poslovne inteligencije nudi bolje razumijevanje vlastitih kupaca i spoznaju što ih podstiče na određeno ponašanje. S tehničke strane, poslovna inteligencija je proces kojim se sirovi podaci pretvaraju u informacije. Te informacije se zatim analiziraju i koriste u procesu odlučivanja u preduzeću. Business intelligence system is a system that stores information and knowledge on competition, customers, suppliers, processes. It allows business negotiation and reasoned approach to numerically customers and suppliers, quality operational planning, monitoring the behavior of competitors, the observation of individual market segments and predict future events. Also, the business intelligence system provides a better understanding of their own customers and realize that encourages them to certain behavior. On the technical side, business intelligence is the process by which raw data is converted into information. This information is then analyzed and used in the decision-making process in the company. To BI or not to BI? “To BI or not to BI?” Nema dvoumljenja - odgovor je, svakako, “to BI”. Business Intelligence (BI) si- No demur - the answer is definitely ”To BI.” Business Intelligence ( BI) sys137 C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA stemi postali su neizostavno oruđe svih razina manadžementa u procesima odlučivanja. Pojam poslovne inteligencije u poslednjih je nekoliko godina toliko aktuelan da ga je gotovo nemoguće izbjeći, što i ne čudi, s obzirom da nudi rješenje za jedan od najvećih problema manadžmenta – donošenje kvalitetnih poslovnih odluka. Svaki poslovni subjekt, tijelo državne uprave ili javna institucija, koji svoje poslovanje podupiru nekim informacionim sistemom mogu koristiti i poslovnu inteligenciju. Uvođenje BI sistema pomaže u rješavanju upravljačkih problema preduzeća, a, upotrebom informacija i znanja o konkurenciji, kupcima, dobavljačima, procesima i vezama među procesima, omogućava poslovno pregovaranje i argumentirani nastup. Omogućava kvalitetno operativno planiranje, praćenje ponašanja konkurencije, kupaca, dobavljača, promatranje pojedinih tržišnih segmenata i predviđanje budućih pojava. BI sistem omogućava bolje razumijevanje vlastitih kupaca i spoznavanje što ih podstiče na takvo ponašanje. Uvođenje BI sistema u preduzeće može pomoći u barem četiri područja: tems have become an indispensable tool for all levels manadžementa in decision-making processes. The concept of business intelligence in the last few years, so current that it is almost impossible to avoid, which is not surprising, since it offers a solution to one of the biggest problems of management - making good business decisions. Each business, government body or public authority which holds some supporting information system can be used by business intelligence. The introduction of a BI system helps to solve management problems the company, and use of information and knowledge on competition, customers, suppliers, processes, and relationships between processes and allows business negotiation and reasoned act. Provides quality operational planning, monitoring the behavior of competitors, customers, suppliers, monitoring of individual market segments and predict future events. BI system provides a better understanding of their own customers and discovering that it encourages such behavior. The introduction of BI system in the company can help in at least four areas: 1. bolje razumijevanje poslovanja – što pokreće poslovanje, koji trendovi, ponašanja i anomalije su prisutne u poslovanju; 1. better understanding of the business - what drives the business, which trends, behaviors and anomalies are present in the business ; 2. mjerenje koristi od uvođenja sistema – kada znamo gdje i što mjeriti, imamo i jasne koristi ovakvog sistema; 2. measuring the benefits of the system - we know where and what to measure, and we have clear benefits of such a system ; 3. poboljšavanje veza sa svim zainteresiranim stranama u stvaranju lanca vrijednosti – osiguravanjem korisnih informacija o poslovanju i preduzeću kupcima, dobavljačima, zaposlenima, dioničarima i ostaloj javnosti stvara se povjerenje i osjećaj informisanosti; 3. improve communication with all stakeholders in the value creation chain - providing useful information about business and enterprise customers, suppliers, employees, shareholders and the wider public confidence and creates a sense of awareness ; 4. omogućavanje prilika za povećanjem vrijednosti – informacije u današnjem dobu predstavljaju resurs, odnosno vrijednost kako za samo preduzeće tako i za ostale učesnike na tržištu koji su spremni platiti/kupiti određene informacije. 4. providing opportunities to increase the value - in today’s information age, a resource that is the value for both the company itself and for other market participants are willing to pay / buy certain information. 138 C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE LITERATURA LITERATURE Ariiproject (2008). OLAP Softwares Comparison. Očitano 08.07.2013. na veb sajtu: http://ariiproject.wordpress. com/2008/10/18/olap-softwarescomparison/ Ariiproject (2008). OLAP Softwares Comparison. Očitano 08.07.2013. na veb sajtu: http://ariiproject.wordpress. com/2008/10/18/olap-softwarescomparison/ Ćirić, B. (2006). Poslovna inteligencija. Beograd: Data status. Ćirić, B. (2006). Business Intelligence. Beograd: Data status. Javorović, B., Bilandžić, M. (2007). Poslovne informacije i business intelligence. Zagreb: Golden marketing – Tehnička knjiga, Javorović, B., Bilandžić, M. (2007). Business information and business intelligence. Zagreb: Golden marketing – Tehnička knjiga, Krulj, D. (2003) Projektovanje i implementacija Data Warehouse i Data Mining sistema. Magistarski rad, FON, Beograd. Krulj, D. (2003) projecting and implementation Data Warehouse i Data Mining sistema. Magistarski rad, FON, Beograd. Oracle (2008). Integrating Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition Plus with SOA. Očitano 21.08.2013. na veb sajtu: http://www.oracle.com/ technetwork/articles/rittman-bieesoa-101728.html Oracle (2008). Integrating Oracle Business Intelligence Enterprise Edition Plus with SOA. Očitano 21.08.2013. na veb sajtu: http://www.oracle.com/ technetwork/articles/rittman-bieesoa-101728.html Panian, Ž., Klepac, G.(2003). Poslovna inteligencija. Zagreb: Masmedia. Panian, Ž., Klepac, G.(2003). Business inteligence. Zagreb: Masmedia. Passioned Group (2013). What is Business Intelligence (BI)?. Očitano 23.08.2013. na veb sajtu: http:// www.passionned.com/businessintelligence/what-is-businessintelligence-bi/ Passioned Group (2013). What is Business Intelligence (BI)?. Očitano 23.08.2013. na veb sajtu: http:// www.passionned.com/businessintelligence/what-is-businessintelligence-bi/ Paul, S., Mac Lennan, J., Tang, Z., Oveson, S. (2005). Data Mining Tutorial. Microsoft Corporation. Paul, S., Mac Lennan, J., Tang, Z., Oveson, S. (2005). Data Mining Tutorial. Microsoft Corporation. Reinschmidt, J., Francoise A. (2001). Business Intelligence Certification Guide. IBM Redbooks. Reinschmidt, J., Francoise A. (2001). Business Intelligence Certification Guide. IBM Redbooks. 139 PRIJATELJI ČASOPISA ZEDP ''ELEKTO-BIJELJINA'' A. D. BIJELJINA PREDUZEĆE SA NAJNIŽIM DISTRIBUTIVNIM GUBICIMA U SISTEMU ''ELEKTROPRIVREDE'' REPUBLIKE SRPSKE U periodu januar-jun 2013. godine, ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d Bijeljina, postiglo je izuzetno dobre poslovne rezultate, koji se najviše ogledaju u smanjenju distributivnih gubitaka. Ovo preduzeće u prvom polugodištu ostvarilo najniže gubitke u cjelokupnom sistemu ‘’Elektroprivrede’’ Republike Srpske. Zahvaljujući otkrivenom broju neovlaštene potrošnje električne energije u prvih šest mjeseci, distributivni gubici su smanjeni na 8,33%, što je najbolji rezultat od osnivanja ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljine’’ a.d. Bijeljina. U pomenutom periodu otkriveno je 259 slučajeva neovlaštene potrošnje, pri čemu je obračunato Zlatan Lazarević 5,6 miliona kWh električne energije, ukupne vrijedDirektor ZEDP „ELEKTRO-BIJELJINA“ a.d. nosti od 850 hiljada KM. Ukupni distributivni guBijeljina bici za prvih šest mjeseci 2013. godine, manji su za 4,27% u odnosu na planiranih 12,60%, čime je postignuta ušteda za preduzeće od 12,769.228 kWh i pozitivan finansijski efekat u iznosu od 1,479.060 KM. Poređenja radi, u toku 2012.godine, koja je bila rekordna po broju uhvatnina nelegalne potrošnje u kojoj je otkriveno 209 slučajeva, distributivni gubici su iznosili 10,23%. Smanjenje distibutivnih gubitaka za 2,67% u odnosu na planiranih 12,90% dovelo je do uštede 19,772.380 kWh električne energije i pozitivan finansijski efekat za preduzeće u iznosu od 2,284.896 KM. ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina je u toku 2012. godine svoja potraživanja od kupaca naplatila u iznosu od 95,56% od ukupno fakturisane vrijednosti. Za prvih šest mjeseci 2013. godine, iznos naplaćenih potraživanja od kupaca iznosi 99,90%. Treba istaći, da je na području koje pokriva ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina nedavno završena rekonstrukcija jedanaest čvornih TS 35/10 kV i da sa isto toliko novoizgrađenih, u ovom momentu ovo preduzeće raspolaže sa 22 trafo-stanice. U toku mjeseca očekuje se puštanje u rad još jedne novosagrađene TS u Capardama u opštini Osmaci, a potpisan je ugovor o rekonstrukciji još četiri trafo-stanice 35/10 kV. Sve ovo će omogućiti da ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina nesmetano uđe u ‘’SCADA’’ sistem. 140
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