Programme - Università Bocconi

31st SUERF Colloquium & Baffi Finlawmetrics Conference
Money, Regulation and Growth:
Financing New Growth in Europe
sponsored by Intesa Sanpaolo
4-5 June, 2014
BAFFI Center on International Markets, Money and Regulation
via Roentgen 1, I-20136 Milan, Italy
Conference Motivation:
In recent years, economic growth in Europe has been unsatisfactorily low. Governments, parliaments
and international organisations are looking for ways to stimulate growth and improve employment.
The organisers have invited researchers at universities, international organisation and financial
institutions to submit papers in which they analyse the potential roles of monetary policy, financial
regulation and financial markets and institutions in efforts to revitalize the European economy.
SUERF – Société
Universitaire Européenne
de Recherches Financières
www.suerf.org/milan2014
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
PROGRAMME
Wednesday 4 June, 2014
09.00
09.30
Registration
Room AS01
Opening Plenary Session
Welcome:
Mario Monti, President, Bocconi University, & SUERF Honorary Member
Urs W. Birchler, SUERF President
Chairperson: Urs W. Birchler, SUERF President
Opening Address:
Stefano Del Punta, CFO, Intesa Sanpaolo
Keynote Speakers:
The False Tradeoffs between (Effective) Financial Regulation and Growth
Anat Admati, Stanford Business School
How can the European Banking Union contribute to Growth?
Franco Bruni, Bocconi University
11.15
Coffee Break
11.45 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 1
13.15
Lunch
14.15 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 2
15.45
16.15
Coffee Break
Room AS01
2014 SUERF Marjolin Lecture
Chairman: Donato Masciandaro, BAFFI Center, Bocconi University and SUERF
Sustaining Growth, in the short run and in the medium run
Olivier Blanchard, International Monetary Fund
Followed by Q&A
17.45
19.30
SUERF General Assembly (for SUERF Members)
Bocconi Restaurant
Official Colloquium Dinner
Thursday 5 June, 2014
09.30 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 3
11.00
Coffee Break
11.30 Rooms AS01, AS02, AS03 Commission Work – Session 4
13.00
13.45
Lunch
Room AS01
Commission Reporting Session
Closing Plenary Session
Chairman: Ernest Gnan, Oesterreichische Nationalbank and SUERF
Elena Carletti, Bocconi University and EUI
Michala Marcussen, Société Générale Corporate & Investment Banking
Marc Quintyn, International Monetary Fund
15.45
Presentation of the Marjolin Prize by SUERF President
16.00
End of Colloquium
2
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
The SUERF Marjolin Lecture and the SUERF Marjolin Prize
Robert Marjolin (1911-1986) was one of the most distinguished European economists of his generation and a
leading architect of post-war Europe. From 1948 until 1955 he was the first Secretary General of the OEEC
(Organization for European Economic Co-operation), an organization established to channel US Marshall Aid
into the reconstruction of Europe. Marjolin was a leading negotiator of the Treaty of Rome for France and Vice
President of the European Commission for Finance and Economics for ten years. He served as a Professor of
Economics at the Universities of Paris and Nancy, as well as an advisor to leading European and US Companies.
Since its inception at the 19th SUERF Colloquium held in Thun, Switzerland in September 1995, an eminent
speaker has delivered the SUERF Marjolin Lecture on a subject related to the topic of the accompanying
Colloquium. Past SUERF Marjolin Lecturers have included a winner of the Nobel Prize for Economic Science,
Central Bank Governors and eminent academics from Europe and overseas.
The SUERF Marjolin Prize (EUR 2,000) is awarded to the author(s) of the paper selected by the SUERF Council
of Management as having made the best contribution to the Colloquium and is restricted to author(s) below the
age of 40 on the 4 June, 2014 (co-authors must also fulfil this restriction). In awarding the Marjolin Prize, SUERF
wishes to honour his memory by supporting a young outstanding author’s publication. The Marjolin Prize will be
presented by the SUERF President, Professor Urs W. Birchler, and it is hoped that the awarded contribution will
be published by SUERF in a subsequent SUERF Study after the Colloquium.
Further information about the SUERF Marjolin Lecture and past winners of the SUERF Marjolin Prize can be
found on the SUERF website at www.suerf.org/marjolin
2014 SUERF Marjolin Lecturer - Olivier Blanchard
Economic Counsellor & Director of the Research Department, IMF, Washington DC
A citizen of France, Olivier Blanchard has spent most of his professional life in Cambridge, U.S.
After obtaining his Ph.D in economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1977,
he taught at Harvard University, returning to MIT in 1982, with whom he has been affiliated
since then. He is the Robert M. Solow Professor of Economics, and past Chair of the Economics
Department. He has been on leave from MIT since 2008, as Economic Counsellor and Director
of the Research Department of the International Monetary Fund. He is a macroeconomist, who has
worked on a wide set of issues, from the role of monetary policy, to the nature of speculative bubbles, to the nature of the
labor market and the determinants of unemployment, to transition in former communist countries, and to forces behind
the current crisis. In the process, he has worked with numerous countries and international organizations. He is the author
of many books and articles, including two textbooks in macroeconomics, one at the graduate level with Stanley Fischer,
one at the undergraduate level. He is a fellow and past council member of the Econometric Society, a past vice president
of the American Economic Association, and a member of the American Academy of Sciences.
3
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
Commission 1:
Monetary policy and growth
Commission 2:
Financial Regulation and Growth
Chairs:
Morten Balling (Aarhus University & SUERF)
Sylvester Eijffinger (Tilburg University & CEPR)
Session 1 – Money supply, credit & economic growth
The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT
announcements, Carlo Altavilla (ECB), Domenico
Giannone (ECARES-ULB, Universitá Luiss and CEPR)
and Michele Lenza (ECB)
Exploring the Relationship between Credit and GDP, Elena
Stavrova, Gancho Ganchev, Vladimir Tsenkov (SWU)
Household credits and financial stability: a theoretical
model of financial intermediation, Cécile Bastidon
(LEAD, Université de Toulon)
Session 2 – Central bank credibility, monetary
targets and interest rate policy
Central Bank Credibility and Reputation: an Historical
and Quantitative Exploration, Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid
Laurier University and CEPR) and Michael D. Bordo
(Rutgers University)
Cyclical Interest Rates, Financial Constraints and
Industry Growth, Enisse Kharroubi (Bank for
International Settlements) and Philippe Aghion (Harvard
University)
When arm's length is too far: relationship banking over
the business cycle, Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School
and European Banking CentER – Tilburg University),
Hans Degryse (KU Leuven and CEPR), Ralph De Haas
(EBRD & Tilburg University) and Neeltje van Horen
(DNB)
Session 3 – Implications of bank behaviour for
economic growth
US Banks' Behavior since Lehman's Collapse, Bailout
Uncertainty and the Timing of Exit Strategies
Alex Cukierman (Tel-Aviv University)
Determinants of the rate of the Dutch unsecured
overnight
money
market,
Ronald
Heijmans,
Lola Hernandez and Richard Heuver (DNB)
A capital budgeting model of bank lending: theory,
evidence, and policy implications, Robert Krainer
(University of Wisconsin-Madison)
Session 4 – International and EU perspectives on
economic growth
Exporting sovereign stress: Evidence from syndicated
bank lending during the euro area sovereign debt crisis,
Alexander Popov (ECB) and Neeltje van Horen (DNB)
Macroprudential policies as buffer against volatile
cross-border capital flows, Salih Fendoglu, Ahmet
Faruk Aysan, Mustafa Kilinç (Central Bank of Turkey)
Framing banking union in a common currency area:
some empirical evidence from the Eurozone
Diego Valiante (CEPS)
Chairs:
David Llewellyn (Loughborough University & SUERF)
Marc Quintyn (IMF)
Session 1 – Bank strategies
4
The Winner's Curse: Evidence on the Danger of
Aggressive Credit Growth in Banking, Thomas Kick,
Thilo Pausch, Benedikt Ruprecht (Deutsche Bundesbank)
Risk-Taking Incentives of Modern Banks, Razvan Vlahu
(De Nederlandsche Bank), Natalya Martynova
(University of Amsterdam) and Lev Ratnovski (IMF)
The Impact of Taxation on Bank Leverage and Asset
Risk, Bálint L. Horváth (Tilburg University)
Session 2 – Bank regulation
Banking supervision and growth - a new macroprudential
paradigm? Mario Quagliariello and Samuel da Rocha
Lopes (European Banking Authority)
Spillovers from Systemic Bank Defaults, Mark Mink
(DNB), Jakob de Haan (DNB & University of Groningen)
Regulations, Foreign Banks and Income Equality,
Iftekhar Hasan (Fordham University)
Session 3 – Shadow Banking and securitisation
Shadow Banking from the perspective of a securities
regulator, Peter Andrews (Financial Conduct Authority)
Shadowy Banking: Theft by Safety Net, Edward Kane
(Boston College)
Securitisation and Bank Capital in European Banking:
Does Regulation Affect Risk Retention Decisions?
Alessandro Scopelliti (University of Warwick)
Session 4 – Dealing with bank failures
Prudential regulation and the cost of bank funding,
Jordi Gual (La Caixa)
Will the bail-in break the vicious circle between banks
and their sovereign? Stefano Zedda (University of
Cagliari) and Clara Galliani (European Commission)
Feeding or averting the next crisis? The Resolution
Fund and Incentives, Javier Villar Burke (European
Commission)
Conference Session Venues:
Room AS01
Room AS02
Room AS03
Plenary Sessions
and Commission 1
Commission 2
Commission 3
All rooms are adjacent to one another. Coffee
breaks and lunches will be served in the area
outside the three rooms.
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
Commission 3: Economic growth and
financial institutions and markets
Chairs:
Frank Lierman (Belfius Bank and SUERF),
Pierre Siklos (Wilfrid Laurier University)
Session 1 – Rebuilding Financial Europe
Restructuring financial Europe and the necessity to
relaunch the European Economy - the insurance
perspective, Jan Monkiewicz (Geneva Association and
Warsaw University of Technology)
Banking and real convergence clubs: is the euro area
really a blunder? Massimiliano Affinito (Banca d'Italia)
Banking market competition, opaque firms, and the
reallocation component of aggregate growth, Felix Noth
(Goethe University Frankfurt), Robert Inklaar
(University of Groningen), Michael Koetter (Frankfurt
School of Finance and Management)
Session 2 – Re-establishing the public role
The role of the European Investment Bank in the
relaunching
of
the
European
economy,
Debora Revoltella (European Investment Bank)
The Mechanics of Financial Liberalization and Growth,
Alessandra dal Colle (Banca Prossima and CeFiMS,
SOAS)
Financing Growth in European Economies: Pitfalls and
Imperfections of the Financial System and a new approach
in public investments, Stavros Vourloumis (London
School of Economics)
Session 3 – Reviewing bank lending
Shocks to bank lending, risk-taking and securitization
and their role for US business cycle fluctuations,
Gert Peersman (Uni Ghent) and Wolf Wagner (Tilburg
University)
Bank Loan Spread and Private Information: Pending
Approval Patents, Yuan Xie (Fordham University),
Marlene Plumlee (University of Utah), Meng Yan,
(Fordham University) and Jeff Jiewei Yu, (Southern
Methodist University)
Determinants of Capital Structure in Non-Financial
Companies, Harald W. Stieber (European Commission)
and Fabian Kühnhausen (IMPRS-CI)
Session 4 – Panel on Experiences from Financial
Institutions & Markets
Panellists:
Information on the
SUERF Website
31st SUERF Colloquium and BAFFI
Finlawmetrics Microsite
www.suerf.org/milan2014
General Information:
Venue
www.suerf.org/milan2014venue
Accommodation (and booking forms)
www.suerf.org/milan2014hotels
Participant Information:
Full Colloquium Programme
www.suerf.org/milan2014programme
Colloquium Registration Form
www.suerf.org/milan2014registration
Colloquium Papers for download
www.suerf.org/milan2014papers
(password-protected)
SUERF Secretariat
Michael Bailey, SUERF Executive Secretary
michael.bailey@oenb.at | T: +43 1 40420 7216
Veronika Brookes, SUERF Secretary
veronika.brookes@oenb.at | T: +43 1 40420 7206
SUERF Secretariat
www.suerf.org / suerf@oenb.at
Tel: +43 1 40420 7206
Fax: +43 1 4042004 7298
Javier Castrillo Penadés (Santander)
Gregorio De Felice (Intesa Sanpaolo)
Davide Grignani (Société Générale)
Carl-Christoph Hedrich (Commerzbank)
5
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
Event Outline
The event language is English. After the opening plenary session, participants divide into three separate discussion
groups – the commissions - for two sessions. In commission work sessions, presenting authors give short presentations
of their papers with general discussion of the papers and issues relating to them in each session. Papers presented
in the commission sessions are made available to participants via the SUERF website prior to the event, with the
accompanying presentations becoming available after the event. The prestigious SUERF Marjolin Lecture, delivered by
Olivier Blanchard and the official event dinner will round off the first day of the event. The second day will begin with
a further two commission work sessions in the morning. After lunch, on the final afternoon of the event, the findings
of the respective commissions are summarised, before a closing plenary session consisting of further plenary addresses
rounds of the event, with the SUERF President presenting the SUERF Marjolin Prize for the best paper written by young
economists under the age of 40 presented at the event.
Location
The event will be held in three auditoria (Rooms AS01, AS02 and AS03) of the BAFFI Centre at via Roentgen 1. Guests
staying at the suggested hotels for the event will find the venue within easy reach on foot, while the location is also served
by the trams 15 and 9. Trams travel regularly in and around the city centre.
Dinner Location
The Official Dinner will be held at Bocconi University Restaurant in Via Gobbi 5 a short walk from the venue after the
end of the first day’s proceedings.
Participants
Anat Admati
Stanford University
Roberto Blanco
Banco de España and SUERF
Alessandra Dal Colle
Banca Prossima
Massimiliano Affinito
Banca d'Italia
Tito Boeri
Bocconi University
Gregorio de Felice
Intesa Sanpaolo
Peter Andrews
Financial Conduct Authority
Veronika Brookes
SUERF
Hans Degryse
KU Leuven and CEPR
Debora Arioli
Intesa Sanpaolo
Annick Bruggeman
National Bank of Belgium
Stefano Del Punta
Intesa Sanpaolo
Michael Bailey
SUERF
Allard Bruinshoofd
Rabobank Nederland and SUERF
Sylvester Eijffinger
Tilburg University and CEPR
Morten Balling
Aarhus University and SUERF
Franco Bruni
Bocconi University
Gabriel Fagan
European Central Bank and SUERF
Daniele Basini
Intesa Sanpaolo
Elena Carletti
Bocconi University
Michele Fassio
Intesa Sanpaolo
Cécile Bastidon
LEAD, Université de Toulon
Javier Castrillo Penadés
Santander
Carlos Favero
Bocconi University
Harald Benink
Tilburg University
Giovanna Cerini
Intesa Sanpaolo
Salih Fendoglu
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Wolfgang Bessler
Justus-Liebig-Universität
Elisa Coletti
Intesa Sanpaolo
Clara Galliani
European Commission
Urs Birchler
University of Zurich and SUERF
Marilena Costanza
Associação Portuguesa de Bancos
Gancho Ganchev
South West University "Neofit Rilski"
Olivier Blanchard
International Monetary Fund
Alex Cukierman
Tel Aviv University
Angelo Gersandi
Intesa Sanpaolo
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Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
Francesco Giavazzi
Bocconi University
Michala Marcussen
Société Générale CIB and SUERF
Alessandro D. Scopelliti
University of Warwick
Ernest Gnan
Oesterreichische Nationalbank & SUERF
Marc Marechal
National Bank of Belgium
Pierre Siklos
Wilfrid Laurier University
Margarita González
CNMV
Donato Masciandaro
Bocconi University and SUERF
Andrea Sironi
Bocconi University
Davide Grignani
Société Générale CIB
Luca Mezzomo
Intesa Sanpaolo
Erika Somma
Bocconi University
Anna-Maria Grimaldi
Intesa Sanpaolo
Mark Mink
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
Elena Stavrova
South West University "Neofit Rilski"
Jordi Gual
La Caixa
Tommaso Monacelli
Bocconi University
Harald Stieber
European Commission
Alfonso Guido
Intesa Sanpaolo
Jan Monkiewicz
Geneva Association and Warsaw
University of Technology
Niels Storm Stenbaek
Danish Bankers Association
Vilma Hanžel Kratochwill
Bank of Slovenia
Iftekhar Hasan
Fordham University
Carl-Christoph Hedrich
Commerzbank and SUERF
Lola Hernandez
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
Arne Holzhausen
Allianz SE
Bálint Horváth
Tilburg University
Jakob Legård Jakobsen
Nykredit Realkredit A/S
Edward Kane
Boston College
Enisse Kharroubi
Bank for International Settlements
Thomas Kick
Deutsche Bundesbank
Michael Koetter
Frankfurt Sch. of Finance & Management
Ryszard Kokoszczynski
National Bank of Poland and SUERF
Robert Krainer
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Fabian Kühnhausen
Max Planck Institute
Michele Lenza
European Central Bank
Frank Lierman
Belfius Bank and SUERF
David T. Llewellyn
Loughborough University
Catherine Lubochinsky
Global Risk Institute in Financial Services
Yioryos George Makedonis
Queen Mary, University of London
Mario Monti
President, Bocconi University
SUERF Honorary Member
Carolina Mota
Associação Portuguesa de Bancos
Paolo Mottura
Bocconi University
Hideki Nishigaki
Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management
Francesco Ostuni
Intesa Sanpaolo
Fausto Panunzi
Intesa Sanpaolo
Lucia Pastori
Intesa Sanpaolo
Bruno Pavesi
Bocconi University
Gert Peersman
University of Ghent
Roberto Perotti
Bocconi University
Zbigniew Polański
National Bank of Poland
Angelo Porta
Bocconi University
Carla Puricelli
Intesa Sanpaolo
Mario Quagliariello
European Banking Authority
Marc G. Quintyn
International Monetary Fund
Debora Revoltella
European Investment Bank
Davide Romelli
ESSEC Business School
Monica Rossolini
Bocconi University
Yuri Stoutjesdijk
NFLI
Guido Tabellini
Bocconi University
Fabrizio Tallei
Intesa Sanpaolo
Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson
Central Bank of Iceland
Roberto Tridente
Intesa Sanpaolo
Vladimir Tsenkov
South West University "Neofit Rilski"
Nikolett Vágó
Magyar Nemzeti Bank
Diego Valiante
Centre for European Policy Studies
Natacha Valla
CEPII
Neeltje Van Horen
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
Javier Villar Burke
European Commission
Razvan Vlahu
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
Stavros Vourloumis
London School of Economics
Ronald A. Walkier
NWB Bank
Mikael Wendschlag
Uppsala University
Hanna Westman
Bank of Finland
Yuan Xie
Fordham University
Stefano Zedda
University of Cagliari
Davidia Zucchelli
Intesa Sanpaolo
Francesco Saita
Bocconi University
7
Università Commerciale
Luigi Bocconi
BAFFI
Center on International Markets,
Money and Regulation
About SUERF
SUERF – The European Money and Finance Forum was founded on 25th November 1963 in Louveciennes (France) by
a group of academics and bankers from France, Britain, The Netherlands and Belgium. SUERF is a network association
of academics, bankers, central bankers and other practitioners in the financial sector. The focus of the Association is on
the analysis, discussion and understanding of financial markets and institutions, the monetary economy, the conduct of
regulation and monetary policy, and related issues. Its events provide a unique European network for the analysis and
discussion of these and related issues. SUERF has evolved as a forum for the exchange of information, research results
and ideas. As such, its membership embraces central bank officials, commercial bankers, other members of the financial
community and academics. SUERF encourages dialogue among its three constituencies so that each gains from the
perspectives of the others. Members are drawn from all over Europe and beyond.
Mission Statement
SUERF strives to be the pre-eminent independent non-profit European association designed to create an active network
between professional economists, financial practitioners, central bankers and academics for the analysis and mutual
understanding of monetary and financial issues. This is to be achieved by international activities focused on its
Colloquia, conferences, lectures, seminars, publications, and the sponsoring of research.
Recent SUERF Events
Recent SUERF events have been held on the following topics:
“Two ends of the spectrum – the challenges of risk management and effective resolution” • “Banking and Financial
Markets between Integration and Segmentation after the Crisis” • “The Financial Reconstruction of Europe” • “The
value of banks and their business models to society” • “Banking after regulatory reforms - business as usual?” • “The
future of Sovereign Borrowing in Europe” • “Property prices & real estate financing in a turbulent world” • “States,
Banks, and the Financing of the Economy” • “The Interaction of Political, Fiscal and Financial Stability: Lessons from
the Crisis” • “Future Risks and Fragilities for Financial Stability” • “The ESRB at 1” • “The Future of Risk Management”
• “New Paradigms in Money & Finance” • “Monetary Policy after the Crisis” • “Disclosure & Market Discipline –
What Role for Transparency?” • “Regulation and Banking after the Crisis”
SUERF Publications
50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, edited by Morten Balling and Ernest Gnan
Available for download at: www.suerf.org/50yearsofmoneyandfinance
The following SUERF Studies have recently appeared or are due to appear soon:
2014/1 The Effectiveness of Capital Adequacy Measures in Predicting Bank Distress, by David Mayes
& Hanno Stremmel www.suerf.org/ss20141
2014/2 The Value of Banks and Their Business Models to Society, edited by Jakob de Haan and Allard Bruinshoofd
www.suerf.org/ss20142
2014/3 Banking after regulatory reforms - business as usual? edited by Esa Jokivuolle and Jouko Vilmunen
www.suerf.org/ss20143
Forthcoming SUERF Events
2 July 2014
SUERF/Central Bank of Iceland Conference “Post-Crisis Recovery and the Reconstruction
of the Financial Sector” in Reykjavik www.suerf.org/reykjavik2014
14 November 2014
SUERF/CNMV Conference “Challenges in Securities Markets Regulation: Investor
Protection & Corporate Governance” in Madrid www.suerf.org/madrid2014
December 2014
2nd SUERF/UniCredit & Universities Foundation Workshop and Research Prize
www.suerf.org/researchprize
Information about further events can be found on the SUERF Website at www.suerf.org
Further information about SUERF membership, events and publications can be found on the SUERF Website
at www.suerf.org or by contacting the SUERF Secretariat (suerf@oenb.at).
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