Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 Strategic Choices towards Carbon Neutrality (NORSTRAT) A project within the program “Sustainable Energy System 2050” from Nordic Energy Research Contact: ingeborg.graabak@sintef.no Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 1 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system – Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system – Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research NORSTRAT description (1:2) Objective: To build knowledge about possible carbon neutral futures for an integrated Nordic power system in a time perspective up to 2050 based on qualitative scenario analysis of impacts on the electricity, the transport and the heating system combined with the necessary governance aspects to enable the transformation. Two alternative paths are examined: • Nordic Balance - A carbon neutral region related to electricity and transport • European Hub - The Nordic region as a major exporter of green electricity for Europe Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 4 NORSTRAT description (2:2) • Project period: August 2011 – 2015 • Partners: SINTEF Energy Research, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Technical University Denmark (DTU) • Related Baltic project: Similar project for the Baltic region. Partners: Riga Technical University and Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn • 2 PhDs SEI/KTH • Reference group • • • • • • • • • • • Vattenfall Dong Energy (Statnett) Finngrid Energinet.dk Dansk Energi Vestas Energi Norge Enova Fortum Svenska Kraftnet Policy, regulation & instruments DTU Electrification of transport and heating SINTEF Energy markets & transmission development Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 5 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system – Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research The Nordic power system in 2010 (TWh) Energy Denmark Finland Norway Sweden source 8 0 1 4 Wind power 3 10 0 12 Other renewable 26 31 5 8 Fossil fuels 0 22 0 56 Nuclear power 0 13 117 66 Hydropower 0 1 0 0 Nonidentifiable Production 37 77 123 145 Consumption 36 88 130 147 Sum 13 25 70 78 196 1 382 401 Source: Nord Pool, ENTSO-E Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 7 Location of increase in power demand 2050 based on expected population increase Population increase (1000 inhabitants) Source: SSB, …. Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Localization of new wind production Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 9 Potential for new production from RES in the Nordic region, "Low" and "High case" Country Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Total Technology Offsh wind PV Bio Onsh/offsh wind Bio Onsh/offsh wind Hydro Onsh/offsh wind PV Bio "Low" [TWh/y] "High"[TWh/y] 25 40 5 5 5 10/ 10/30 20 20 13/0 20/30 10 20 20/20 30/30 5 5 10 10 152 248 Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 10 NORSTRAT scenarios Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 11 Brief overview of EMPS modelling concept Strategy calculation (SDP) Details for hydropower Electricity market specification Market data Allocation Aggregation Calibration Water values Market simulation (LP) Stochastic weather Realization Simulation results Solutions Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 12 Investment algorithm (for analysis of profitable increases in transmission capacities) Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 14 TSO data model for Nordic region + Detailed model of Germany and UK + Single node model per European country (not visible in figure) 41 year of input date for: Hydro inflow Wind Solar Result: 90 000 periods with simulations Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Production portfolio Europe 6000 5000 Bio 4000 Solar/tidal Wind 3000 Hydro 2000 Nuclear Oil 1000 Gas Coal 0 2005 Ref Current policies EE Div supply High RES Delayed CCS Low nucl EU Energy Road Map Scenario 2050 (EU 27) NORSTRAT Europe minus Nordic region Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 16 Carbon Neutral Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Purely RES Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research European Battery Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research European Hub Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Net yearly power flow European Hub Carbon Neutral Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Profitable investments in transmission grids NORSTRAT scenarios Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 22 Flow VESTSYD – Great Britain Mid before and after increasing transmission capacities Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system – Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Demand Study on Large Scale Deployment of EVs in Nordic Region Study Scope: Private Passenger Cars Energy Consumption Rate: 150 Wh/km Driving Pattern: Fulfill the Current Driving Requirement Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 25 Data Sources: National Travel Survey Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Number of Passenger Cars in Nordic Region Denmark Sweden 2,1 mil. 3,7 mil. Norway Finland 2,8 mil. 3,0 mil. Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 27 Annual Electricity Consumption of EVs in Nordic Region EV Penetration Level Denmark East [GWh] Denmark West [GWh] Sweden [GWh] Norway [GWh] Finland [GWh] 100% 2650 1952 6565 5413 7634 70% 1855 1366 4596 3789 5344 50% 1325 986 3283 2707 3817 Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 28 EV Charging Analysis in Nordic Region Dumb Charging (All-Day) Dumb Charging (At Home) Timed Charging (Initiating After 21:00 When Parked) Spot Price Based Charging (All-Day) Spot Price Based Charging (At Home) Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 29 Peak Electrical Charging Load of EVs in Nordic Region [1phase-10A Charging] Source: Technical University of Denmark Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research 30 EV/grid analysis Reference Spot Dumb Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Preliminary conclusions Expected population growth and plans for new renewable production are in many cases in different regions. This particularly applies to Norway. The Nordic region has sufficient potential for new renewable power production to phase out fossil production and to cover the estimated increase in demand. The profitability for expansion of the transmission grid is "modest" in the scenario Carbon Neutral, an increase of the capacity of ca 9% compared to 2012 Export of 110 TWh/y from the Nordic region to Europe combined with demand growth and phasing out fossil production results in profitability of large expansions of transmission capacities (61% compared to 2012) (scenario European Hub) Connections between Norway and UK and Norway and Germany are found profitable in the scenarios where it is allowed to build the connections. 100% deployment of EVs for personal transport increases power consumption in Norway with 4-5% and peak load with nearly 15%. Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research Takk for oppmerksomheten!! Technology for a better society SINTEF Energy Research
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