From the Learning Curve
to Competitiveness
Eero Vartiainen
IEA PVPS Task 1 Workshop
Hamburg, 14.9.2015
Historical learning rate for PV modules is about 20%
Every time the global cumulative PV capacity has doubled, module price has reduced by 20%
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaic, 2014 results (April 2015)
2
PV capacity to grow from 178 GWp in 2014 to 1700 GWp in 2030
3000
Cumulative PV capacity (GWp)
Fast growth
2500
Base case
2000
Slow growth
1500
1000
500
0
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Base scenario according to IEA Technology roadmap for PV (2014); 10% CAGR
Slow scenario SolarPower Europe (6/2015) low scenario until 2019, 50 GW p annually 2020-30 (0% CAGR 2019-30)
Fast scenario SolarPower Europe (6/2015) high scenario until 2019, 15% CAGR 2019-30
3
Average USD to EUR ratio 2004-2014 is 1.33
1,6
1,5
USD/€
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1,0
2004
4
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Average PV module price in Europe most likely halved by 2030
0,6
Average module price (€/Wp)
0,5
0,4
0,3
Slow growth
0,2
Base
Fast growth
0,1
0,0
2015
2020
2025
Price estimation based on the three cumulative volume scenarios and historic 20% learning curve
5
2030
System prices in 2015 for various market segments
1600
BoS
PV system price (€/kWp)
1400
Module
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
5 kWp
50 kWp
Source: EU PV Technology Platform report on PV LCOE (9/2015)
6
1 MWp
50 MWp
System prices for a 1 MWp system 2015-30
1,0
BoS
PV system price (€/Wp)
0,8
Module
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
2015
2020
Source: EU PV Technology Platform report on PV LCOE (9/2015)
7
2030
PV LCOE in Europe for a residential 5 kWp system (with VAT)
PV LCOE (€/MWh) for 5 kWp
160
London/
Stockholm/
Helsinki
140
Munich
Toulouse
Rome
Malaga
Additional
CAPEX with 4%
real WACC
120
Additional
CAPEX with 2%
real WACC
100
80
60
CAPEX with 0%
real WACC
40
20
OPEX
8
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
0
PV LCOE in Europe for a commercial 50 kWp system (w/o VAT)
PV LCOE (€/MWh) for 50 kWp
140
London/
Stockholm/
Helsinki
120
Munich
Toulouse
Rome
Malaga
Additional
CAPEX with
6% real WACC
Additional
CAPEX with
4% real WACC
100
80
Additional
CAPEX with
2% real WACC
60
40
CAPEX with
0% real WACC
20
OPEX
9
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
0
PV LCOE in Europe for a 1 MWp system (w/o company taxes)
PV LCOE (€/MWh) for 1 MWp
120
London/
Stockholm/
Helsinki
100
Munich
Toulouse
Rome
Additional
CAPEX with 8%
real WACC
Malaga
Additional
CAPEX with 5%
real WACC
80
60
Additional
CAPEX with 2%
real WACC
40
CAPEX with 0%
real WACC
20
10
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
0
OPEX
PV LCOE in Europe for a 50 MWp system (w/o company taxes)
PV LCOE (€/MWh) for 1 MWp
120
London/
Stockholm/
Helsinki
100
Munich
Toulouse
Rome
Malaga
Additional
CAPEX with 5%
real WACC
80
60
Additional
CAPEX with 2%
real WACC
40
CAPEX with 0%
real WACC
20
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
2030
2020
2015
0
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Additional
CAPEX with 8%
real WACC
OPEX
Location and real WACC have the biggest influence on PV LCOE
Location (Malaga/Stockholm)
Real WACC (2%/8%)
OPEX (-/+50%)
Market growth (fast/slow)
Learning rate (24%/16%)
Currency rate (1.6/1.0 €/USD)
Efficiency increase (0.6%/0.2%)
Lifetime (35/25 years)
Degradation (0.2%/0.8%)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Sensitivity of LCOE (%)
Comparison with a 1 MWp system in Toulouse with a 5% real WACC, base CAPEX and OPEX, 20% learning rate,
1.33 USD/€ currency rate, 0.4% point annual efficiency increase, 30 years lifetime and 0.5% annual degradation
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Conclusions: PV will be competitive by 2030 in most markets
• PV already competitive with retail electricity all over Europe
• By 2030, PV will be competitive with wholesale electricity in many markets
• With location, cost of capital has the biggest influence on PV LCOE
• Volume growth or learning rate has a relatively small impact
• Uncertainty in OPEX is more significant than in CAPEX
It is most urgent for the policy makers to create a stable environment for
investments, in order to decrease the cost of capital and thus the LCOE of PV
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What’s next - PV LCOE will continue to decrease after 2030
PVSEC oral presentation 7DO.15.1 ’PV LCOE in Europe 2015-2050’
on Thursday 17th at 15.15-15.30
Thank you!
eero.vartiainen@fortum.com
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