The Decision to Scrap a Wind Turbine Opportunity Cost, Timing and Policy Johannes Mauritzen, johannes.mauritzen@nhh.no NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Bergen And Institute for Industrial Economics (IFN), Stockholm October 10th, 2011 www.nhh.no Data and Methodology • Main • • • • • Duration Models • • • Data set from Danish Transimission Operator, Energinett Date of Installation and ”Decomission” Coordinates Principality Capacity, Tower Height, Rotor Diameter, Manufacturer Kaplan Meier non-parametric estimation Cox semi-parametric regression model Identification • • • Semi-Instrumental Variables Semi- (regression) discontinuity Proportional Hazards Assumption Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark Total Wind Power Capacity in Denmark 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Tariff for Wind Power 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no 5 Scrapped Turbines per Month Scrappage Policies • April • • • • December 15th, 2004 • • 1st, 2001 – January 1st, 2004 Retroactive to 1999 Max capacity of 150 kW Subsidy of .17 DKK/kWh • 3x scrapped value <100kW • 2x scrapped value >100, <150 Max capacity of 450 kW Subsidy of .12 DKK/kWh • 2x scrapped capacity • limited to 12,000 FLH, max of .48 DKK total tariff • February 21, 2008 – extra .08 DKK/kWh hour added 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate Kaplan Meier Survivor Function Estimate 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (100-200 kW) Kaplan-Meier Survival Estimates (400-500 kW) Turbine Scrappage Hazard: Cox Regression 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Turbine Scrappage Hazard: Cox Regression Turbine Efficiency Indicator 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no 16.05.11 Fornavn Etternavn, navn@nhh.no Conclusion and Discussion
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