Wir stehen für Wettbewerb und Medienvielfalt.
Fixed and mobile broadband
convergence
Dr. Po-Wen Liu
International Affairs and
Information and Communication Technology
RTR-GmbH
We are at the start of a tremendous development in the
telecommunication sector
Content of this presentation
What is the current situation?
Mobile broadband development
What is to be expected?
Future trends
What are the main drivers?
Parameters of mobile broadband
Case Study Austria
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
2
The potential in the Arab States is enormous; the growth rate shows
the increasing popularity of mobile handsets
Overview of mobile subscriptions worldwide
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
3
Focusing on mobile broadband, developing countries have
accelerated the take-up of this technology
Mobile broadband penetration in developed and developing countries
Mobile broadband penetration
Growth rate of mobile broadband penetration
80%
120%
70%
100%
Developed
60%
50%
Developed
40%
Developing
Developing
80%
60%
30%
40%
20%
20%
10%
0%
2007
31/10/2013
2008
2009
2010
2011
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
2012*
2013*
0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
2013*
4
Although the mobile penetration rate in Arab States is low, this
technology is growing fast
Mobile broadband penetration analyzed by regions
Regional mobile broadband penetration
80%
70%
Growth rate of regional mobile broadband penetration
180%
Africa
Asia & Pacific
60%
50%
Africa
160%
Arab States
Arab States
140%
CIS
Asia & Pacific
Europe
120%
The Americas
100%
CIS
Europe
40%
80%
30%
60%
20%
40%
10%
20%
0%
0%
2010
31/10/2013
The Americas
2011
2012*
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
2013*
2011
2012*
2013*
5
The growth rate of mobile broadband exceeds the growth rate of
fixed broadband
Comparing fixed and mobile growth rate penetration for developing countries
120%
100%
80%
Fixed (wired)-broadband subscriptions
60%
Active mobile-broadband subscriptions
40%
20%
0%
2008
31/10/2013
2009
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
2010
2011
2012*
2013*
6
Experts expect 30% of internet traffic next year will result from mobile
usage
Expected growth of mobile traffic
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
7
Trend 1: People want to work together and create together anywhere
and anytime
Collaboration
Co-working
Crowd
funding
From
anywhere
= mobile
Participation
Source: Stephanie Hofschlaeger on Pixelio
Socialising
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
8
Trend 2: People want to share; they need information anywhere and
anytime
Sharing
Desksharing
Private
sharing
Key to
sharing =
mobile
Transport:
Bicycles,
cars, …
Source: Abigail Christiana on Photobucket
Information /
Money
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
9
Trend 3: People want personalized information anywhere and
anytime
Wearables
Sensors
Google
Glass
Wearables
= mobile
Medicine
Source: pauline on Pixelio
Shoes
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
10
Trend 4: People want locally relevant information anywhere and
anytime
Location based
Wikitude
Nextdoor
Source: Thomas Siepmann on Pixelio
Information
depends
on location
= mobile
Living maps
Tourism
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
11
The framework decides whether mobile broadband is regarded as a
substitution for fixed broadband
Reasons for substituting fixed with mobile broadband subscriptions
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
substitute
fixed
broadband?
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
12
Substitution influences competition, universal service and policy
Impact of substituting fixed with mobile broadband subscriptions
Competition
Universal
Service
Impact of
substituting
fixed
broadband
Policy/
Strategy
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
13
Case Study
Austria
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
14
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Mobile broadband is the most popular broadband
access in Austria
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Subscriptions
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Cable
31/10/2013
Mobile Broadband (Subscription+Prepaid)
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
Other
DSL
15
The most popular services do not require high
bandwidth
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Usage
100%
mobile only
DSL only
cable only
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
16
Prices for private customers are similar for fixed and
mobile broadband
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Hedonic price development (based on 11/2006) – Products for private customers ≤ € 35
2€
0€
-2 €
-4 €
Including one-time charges
starting 04/2012 – often (not
always) waived due to
promotions
-6 €
-8 €
-10 €
-12 €
-14 €
-16 €
-18 €
DSL
31/10/2013
Cable Broadband
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
Mobile Broadband
17
Comparison of parameters
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Fixed Broadband
Mobile Broadband
DSL: 8 Mbit/s: from € 17.90 on , 20 Mbit/s:
from € 24.90 on (each price includes a
Price
landline for a phone)
Cable boradband: 10 Mbit/s from € 15.90
on, 35 Mbit/s from € 22.90 on, 100 Mbit/s
1 GB: from € 4 on
9 GB: from € 8.80 on
20 GB or flat rate: from € 15 on
from € 49.90
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
18
Only mobile broadband is increasing – an important
indicator for substitution
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Usage of fixed and mobile broadband by private customers (01/2011, n=1462)
80%
71.8%
70%
65.6%
total mobile broadband
2011 : 34.4 %
60%
50%
~3/10
~7/10
40%
30%
21.7%
24.9%
20%
6.4%
10%
9.5%
0%
fixed broadband only
mobile broadband only
2009
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
fixed and mobile broadband
2011
19
USB-modems and data cards are significant
indicators for substitution
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Usage
Device used to access
100%
other
90%
80%
Device used to access
mobile broadband –
Comparing housholds
with mobile braodband
only and households
with fixed and mobile
broadband (01/2011,
mobile broadband only:
n=350; fixed and mobile
broadband: n=133)
diretly via
mobile
70%
60%
mobile as
modem and
directly via
mobile
50%
40%
20%
USB-modem /
data card and
directly via
mobile
10%
USB-modem /
data card
30%
0%
mobile broadband only
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
fixed and mobile broadband
20
The development of devices shows a clear trend to
mobile usage
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Usage
Technology Cycles
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
21
Mobile broadband attracts narrowband and DSL
users
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Change of internet access
Customer Stream
Mapping: Private
Customers who
changes their type
of internet access
within the last two
years (01/2011;
Percentage of all
the changes;
n=168; Streams
<1% are not
indicated)
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
22
Comparison of parameters
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Price
Fixed Broadband
Maximum bandwidth (according to providers)
ADSL 2+: standard product of 8 Mbit/s; up to 20 Mbit/s
Bandwidth
VDSL/FTTC: up to 30 Mbit/s
Cable Network: for the most part up to 100 Mbit/s
In reality the bandwidth lies below the given maximum value
Devices
Usage
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Mobile Broadband
Maximum Bandwidth
HSPA: up to 7.2 Mbit/s
HSPA+: up to 42 Mbit/s
Actually achieved bandwidth: 3-13 Mbit/s
within urban regions/in cities**
LTE: up to 100 Mbit/s
UMTS/HSPA:
A1 Telekom: > 90%
Coverage
DSL: >99% of the population
Hutchison (Drei): > 90%
Cable Broadband: about 50% of the population
T-Mobile: approx. 75%
Orange: approx. 70%
LTE: big cities
DSL: FTTB/H up to 100 Mbit/s, 2011 in Vienna 15 and 19
(NGA)expansion
31/10/2013
Cable broadband: DOCSIS 3.0 for the most part already in
Further expansion of HSPA+ and LTE
use
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
23
Theoretically mobile broadband offers bandwidth
beyond the usual requirements of private users
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Devices
Usage
Price
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Theoretical maximum speeds for various wireless technologies
Standard
Peak downlink rate (Mbps)
Peak uplink bit rate (Mbps)
GSM EDGE Evolution
1.89 *
0.947 *
CDMA Ev-DO Rev B.
4.9
1.8
Wi-Fi 802.11b
11
11
UMTS/W-CDMA (3G) HSPA
7.2, 14.4 *
5.7
UMTS/W-CDMA (3G) HSPA+
21.6, 28, 42 *
11.5, 11.5, 22 *
Wi-Fi 802.11g
54
54
WiMAX 802.16e
46 *
4*
Wi-Fi 802.11n
288, 600 *
288, 600 *
LTE (3GPP Rel 8.)
300 *
75 *
LTE (3GPP Rel 8.)
365 *
376 *
LTE-Advanced (3GPP Rel. 10)
1200 *
568 *
Wi-Fi: 802.11ac
1730 *
1730 *
*Depending on standards version and/or equipment configuration
Source: Wireless Gigabit Alliance and FTTH Council Europe various Wireless technologies
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
24
The largest spectrum auction in Austria took place in
September/October 2013
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Price
Devices
Usage
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
Three essential bands for the mobile operators have been auctioned
Fact Sheet
Auction
Multiband-auction 2013
Bands
800/900/1800 MHz
Spectrum
2x140 MHz
Spectrum blocks
28 blocks (2x5 MHz)
Categories/qualities
9
Reservation
2x10 MHz im 800 MHz-band for a new entrant
Minimum offer
526,5 mill. Euro
Auction format
Combinatorial Clockauction (CCA)
Date
September/October 2013
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
25
The auction‘s revenue was more than € 2 billion, all 28
spectrum blocks were sold
Bandwidth/
Coverage
Price
Devices
Usage
Why
subs
titute
fixed
?
All three operators were successful in gaining spectrum
Spectrum
A1 Telekom
T-Mobile
Hutchison
800 MHz (5 blocks)
3 blocks
2 blocks
-
800 MHz Supplementary
block
1 block
-
-
900 MHz (7 blocks)
3 blocks
3 blocks
1 block
1800 MHz (15 blocks)
7 blocks
4 blocks
4 blocks
Sum
2x70 MHz
2x45 MHz
2x25 MHz
Price
1.029.895.738 Euro
654.482.816 Euro
330.082.913 Euro
31/10/2013
Fixed and mobile broadband convergence
26
Wir stehen für Wettbewerb und Medienvielfalt.
Fixed and mobile broadband
convergence
Dr. Po-Wen Liu
International Affairs and
Information and Communication Technology
RTR-GmbH