South Central Pennsylvania
Housing Recovery Summit
April 29, 2014 - York, PA
A Region in Transition:
Recognizing Demographic
Changes and
their Implications
Center for Rural Pennsylvania
Legislative research agency of the
Pennsylvania General Assembly (Act
16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009)
Mandates
• Administer grants to conduct
research on rural conditions.
• Maintain a database on rural
conditions and needs.
Center’s Database
• Pennsylvania’s most
comprehensive database on
rural trends and conditions
• Grants program “feeds” the
database
14,000,000
Cities
Boroughs
12,000,000
Cities
3.0 Million
24%
1st Class Twps
2nd Class Twps
10,000,000
Boros
2.5 Million
20%
8,000,000
1st Class
Twps
1.5 Million
12%
6,000,000
4,000,000
2nd Class
Twps
5.4 Million
44%
2,000,000
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
(est)
• Data available on Center’s
website or via email
2040 Population
Projections: Data Sources
• Projections were developed by
Pennsylvania State Data Center in
2013
• Projections are based on the
demographic cohort component
model
– Base population, Census 2010
– Group quarters populations are held
constant
– Applied national fertility and survival rates
to Pennsylvania
• Projections are just that– projections
– Useful window to understanding and
preparing for change
Cohort Component Model
Pennsylvania’s Rural and Urban Population,
1950 to 2040 (projected)
Rural
13,759,594
Urban
14,132.588
13,230,170
12,711,308
11,793,909
11,863,812
11,881,643
12,281,054
26.2%
11,319,366
25.6%
26.8%
10,498,012
25.9%
26.9%
27.6%
27.4%
27.6%
27.3%
28.9%
71.1%
1950
73.1%
74.1%
72.4%
72.6%
72.4%
72.7%
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
73.2%
73.8%
74.4%
2020 (p)
2030 (p)
2040 (p)
Population in South Central Region,
1950 to 2040 (projected)
2,196,852
2,111,375
1,999,876
1,891,184
1,702,415
1,549,738
1,413,472
1,260,622
1,119,279
956,284
1950
1960
1970
1980
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1990
2000
2010
2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
Rate of Population Change in South Central Region
1950 to 2040 (projected)
20.0%
United States
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
17.5%
15.0%
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
0.0%
-2.5%
1950 to
1960
1960 to
1970
1970 to
1980
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1980 to
1990
1990 to
2000
2000 to
2010
2010 to
2020(p)
2020 to
2030(p)
2030 to
2040(p)
Population Change,
1980 to 2010
Change in Population,
1980 to 2010 and 2010 to 2040
(projected)
Population Change,
2010 to 2040
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
<5
12.0 9.0
1970
South Central Region
Age Cohorts
Blue = % Pop. Males
Yellow = % Pop. Females
Red = Baby Boomers, Born 1946-64
2040
85+
(proj)
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
6.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0 12.0
60-64
55-59
85+
50-54
80-84
75-79
2010
70-74
45-49
65-69
40-44
60-64
35-39
55-59
30-34
50-54
45-49
25-29
40-44
20-24
35-39
15 to 19
30-34
25-29
10 to 14
20-24
15 to 19
5 to 9
10 to 14
<5
5 to 9
12.0
<5
12.0 9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0 12.0
9.0
6.0
3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Number of Youth and Senior Citizens in Pennsylvania
and South Central Region 1950 to 2040 (projected)
Pennsylvania (Statewide)
4,500,000
South Central Pennsylvania
600,000
550,000
4,000,000
500,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
500,000
0
50,000
0
Youth, (<20 Years Old)
Seniors (65+ Years Old)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Age Dependency Ratio, 1960 to 2040 (proj.)
(# Persons Age <20 + Persons Age 65+)/(Persons Age 20 to 64)
95.0%
89.5%
89.9%
89.5%
90.8%
90.0%
88.1%
85.0%
86.0%
85.7%
77.6%
80.0%
75.0%
86.0%
73.0%
75.2%
72.3%
74.9%
73.2%
74.6%
69.8%
70.0%
70.1%
71.7%
68.0%
67.8%
65.0%
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
1950
1960
1970
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
2010
Age Dependency
Ratios, 2010 and
2040 (projected)
2040
(projected)
*Age Dependency Ratio
(# Persons <20 + # Persons 65+)
(# Persons 20 to 64)
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau and
Pennsylvania State Data Center
Births and Deaths, 1970 to 2040 (projected)
Pennsylvania
Births and Deaths
850,000
South Central Region
Births and Deaths
140,000
825,000
130,000
800,000
120,000
775,000
Births
750,000
110,000
725,000
100,000
700,000
Births
90,000
675,000
80,000
650,000
625,000
70,000
600,000
60,000
575,000
Deaths
50,000
550,000
525,000
500,000
Data sources: PA Dept. of Health and Pennsylvania State Data Center
40,000
30,000
Deaths
Natural Population Change* by County,
2010 to 2040 (projected)
*Natural Change = # Births - # Deaths
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
In-Migration by County,
2010 to 2040 (projected)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Projected Natural Change and Net Migration,
2010 to 2040
Pennsylvania
South Central Region
Domestic
In-Migration
148,804
(15%)
Natural
Change
(Births Deaths)
397,471
(28%)
Net inMigration
1,007,472
(72%)
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Overseas
In-Migration,
858,668,
(85%)
Domestic InMigration,
24,029,(17%)
Natural
Change
(Births Deaths)
165,347,
(54%)
Net InMigration,
138,302,
(46%)
Overseas
In-Migration,
114,273,
(83%)
2010
Statewide
Population
Density = 284
Persons per
Square Mile
2040 (proj.)
Statewide
Population
Density = 316
Persons per
Square Mile
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
Rural and Urban
Counties, 2010 and
2040 (projected)
Implication: #1: Housing
# New Housing Permits per 1,000 Population,
1990-2013
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
United States
1.50
Pennsylvania
1.00
South Central Region
0.50
0.00
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
• Slower growth in new
housing
• Shift in housing demand
from large family homes
to smaller homes
• Revitalization of housing
in older boroughs and
cities
• With lower demand,
home prices could
stabilize.
• Challenge of keeping
senior citizens in their
homes longer
Implication #2: Families/Households
Types of Households in South Central
Region, 1980 to 2010
• Smaller households.
• Fewer households with
children.
• Potential increased number
of multi-generational
households.
• Likely increase in single
person households.
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
Families with Children
10.0%
Married Couples
5.0%
Single Person Households
0.0%
1980
Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1990
2000
2010
Implication #3: Economic Development
# Working Age Adults (20-64) in
South Central Region 1950 - 2040 (proj.)
1,151,272
1,126,107
1,113,631
1,114,307
991,247
910,846
807,335
590,657
663,726
552,609
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau & Pennsylvania State Data Center
• Potential labor shortages
for some businesses
• More older persons in
workforce
• Stagnate or lower income
tax revenues
• Increase demand for
businesses to serve an
older population
Implication #4: Education
Enrollment Changes in Enrollment
2010 to 2020 (proj.)
• No initial
reduction in
school taxes
• Potential school
building closings
in some districts–
new building in
other districts
Data Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education
Implication #5: Health Care / Human Services
Persons 85+ Years Old in South Central
Region, 1960 to 2040 (Projected)
90,709
61,519
50,255
42,270
30,477
21,776
15,906
7,034
1960
10,428
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania State Data Center
2020(p)
2030(p)
2040(p)
• Increased demand
for:
– Home health care
services
– Transportation
services
– Assisted living
quarters
– Medical specialists
focusing on
geriatric needs
• Quiet maternity
wards, busy geriatric
units
Implication #6: Community
Number of Persons Employed in
Nonprofit Organization, 2008-12
Data Source: 2008-12 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
• Volunteer organizations may
find it difficult to recruit
members (firefighters, youth
soccer coaches, etc.)
• Fewer youth available to
participate in organizations
(Scouts, baseball, 4-H, etc.)
• Shift in citizens’ needs– youth
reading programs at the
library versus Meals-onWheels.
• With fewer persons working,
community organizations may
see decline in revenues
(United Way, churches, etc.)
• Transfer of wealth from
generation to generation
Thank You!
Barry L. Denk, Director
The Center for Rural Pennsylvania
625 Forster Street, Room 902
Harrisburg, PA 17120
717.787.9555
denkb@rural.palegislature.us
www.rural.palegislature.us