Consumption Ratcheting on Financial Markets Simon Krsnik Bielefeld University IMW - Institut für Mathematische Wirtschaftsforschung EBIM - Economic Behavior and Interaction Models Abstract In financial economics the problem of optimal portfolio choice and utility maximization under budget constraints (Merton, 1969) has been studied under several aspects of market dynamics and investor behaviors. It has been elaborately discussed (Ryder and Heal, 1973; Constantinides, 1990) why loosening the assumption of investor preferences to be non time-additive is reasonable. This advisement leads to a broad literature of habit-formation Models examing Mertons Problem (e.g. Ingersoll (1992)). We consider a habit-formation framework (Dybvig, 1995) that models the behavior of an investor who claims consumption ratcheting. 1. Motivation It can be widely observed that previous consumption (i.e. standard of living) affects current consumption decisions. Standard habit-formation literature often catches this idea with punishing any deviation from an endogenously or exogenously given consumption process or any decrease in consumption. This raises different questions: Is it reasonable to punish reaching a higher and everlasting standard of living? Further, is every small decline in living standards worth to be punished? Dybvig (1995) introduced a model that covers all this. Using the preferences given there we are able to model the behavior of two types of investors. The first one forgets slowly about previous living standards and therefore tolerates a moderate decrease in consumption and the second one desires a safe non-decreasing consumption process. 2. The Model Let Ω, F, P, {Ft}t≥0 be a filtered probability space (with infinite time horizon). We call C the set of all positive rate of consumption processes c = {ct}t≥0. Since we assume an initial consumption rate c− ≥ 0, we are looking at investors who set a high value on rate of consumption processes of the following type. c0 ≥ c− and ct ≥ e −α(t−s) cs ∀s ≤ t (1) Where α ∈ R reflects the memory or requirement of the investor. The following Figure explaines possible rate of consumption processes for c− = 1 and various α. It can easily be shown that the problem for α ∈ R reduces to the problem of a RI. To see the strength ratcheting behavior Dybvig proposes. Example (Dybvig 1995). Consider Ω = {ω1, ω2} with 2 equally probable states and the lotteries: lottery A [0, 1) [1, ∞) ω1 1e 1e ω2 2e 2e lottery B [0, 1) [1, ∞) ω1 1e 2e ω2 2e 1e Although the AI is indifferent between this two lotteries the profound aversion against a decrease in his consumption rate makes the RI prefer lottery A. His immense loss aversion assignes the value −∞ to lottery B. We contemplate Problem (2) for a RI (with u = log) on a complete financial market with 2 assets. S0(t) = ert for a riskless asset S1(t) = eµt+σWt for a risky asset where Wt is a standard Brownian Motion and r, µ, σ > 0 are constants. Therefore the market price of risk is ϑ := µ−r σ . Since an AI is not averse to decreases in consumption, his initial consumption rate c− plays no role. Under these circumstances he behaves optimally if his wealth develops as follows. XtA = w exp (r − δ + 21 ϑ2)t + ϑWt For α ∈ R investors will be assumed to evaluate utility as a time-additive investor (AI) as long as a rate of consumption process satisfies (1). Their preferences will respect the following utility function hR i E ∞ e−δtu(c ) dt if c satisfies (1) t 0 Vu,α(c) = −∞ else Optimal consumption processes cA and optimal portfolios (investment in risky asstes) π A can be described by cAt = δXtA and πtA = ϑXtA Therefore he should always spend a constant fraction of his wealth in consumption and in the risky asset (see Merton (1969)). For the RI problem (2) is feasible only if he is able to consume c− all the time (i.e. w ≥ cr− ). If the problem is feasible an optimum exists (see Dybvig (1995)) and his optimal consumption cR is cR t := max c−, λ exp For given α• the investor wants a rate of consumption process above the corresponding line. Obviously αgreen (α = 0) reflects a consumption ratcheting investors (RI). !) sup r − δ + 21 ϑ2 s + ϑWs 0≤s≤t max Vu,α(c) c∈C s.t. E 0 e −rt γ=q (δ − r + 2δ ϑ2 2 2) − 2rϑ − (δ − r + ϑ2 2) rw(1 − γ1 ) 1 and λ = c (γ − 1) rw − 1 γ − c− if rw(1 − γ1 ) ≥ c− else Therefore both investors base their decisions on the same process exp (r − δ + 21 ϑ2)t + ϑWt . The behavior of the RI can be interpreted as follows. cR R If he consumes ct today, he needs rt to hold his consumption constant. Whenever the process above reaches a new supremum the RI plans to finance a higher consumption level for the rest of his lifetime (see the figure below). (2) λ 1 2 exp ( 2 ϑ − δ)t + ϑWt R ct and the optimal portfolio process is given by πtR = γ σϑ XtR − cR t ! r Since the RI always has to think about his future he only invests a fraction of the money he does not need to finance his current consumption level over time in the risky asset. Optimal consumption, wealth and investment boundary As soon as the optimal wealth process (blue in figure above) hits the lower boundary (green, i.e. cR R Xt = rt ) the RI has no money left for speculating. From that time on he leaves all of his money in the riskless asset. Notice that optimal consumption starts with c− = 5, which is above the optimal wealth level. The optimal consumption process develops as described before. 4. Outlook Up to here we considered a complete financial market. Riedel (2007) used other techniques and generalized Dybvigs work, which allows us to look at Lévy processes. This enables us to look at incomplete markets and generalize Dybvigs results. Further the question rises if important results on incomplete markets like the theorem of Cvitanić and Karatzas (1992, 10.1 Theorem) still hold for investors of this kind? Looking at other financial markets driven by Lévy processes is also planned. References Constantinides, George M. 1990. Habit Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle, The Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 3, 519–543. Cvitanić, Jakša and Ioannis Karatzas. 1992. CONVEX DUALITY IN CONSTRAINED PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION, The Annals of Applied Probability 2, no. 4, 767–818. Dybvig, Philip H. 1995. Duesenberry’s Ratcheting of Consumption: Optimal Dynamic Consumption and Investment Given Intolerance for any Decline in Standard of Living, Review of Economic Studies 62, 287–313. Ingersoll, Jr., Jonathan E. 1992. Optimal cunsumption and portfolio rules with intertemporally dependent utility of consumption, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 16, 681–712. Merton, Robert C. 1969. Lifetime Portfolio Selection under uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case, The Review of Economics and Statistics 51, no. 3, 247–257. Riedel, Frank. 2007. Optimal Consumption Choice with intolerance for Declining Standard of Living, IMW Workingpaper 394. ct dt ≤ w γ R Xt = γ−1 r !γ where where δ > 0 is the discount factor and u : R+ → R the intertemporal utility function (strictly concave, strictly increasing,limx→∞ u0(x) = 0). Given an initial endowment w > 0 the investors problem is the following Z ∞ cR t 3. Consumption Ratcheting on a complete financial market ( αred = −1, αgreen = 0, αyellow = 0.1 Further the wealth process is given by The process exp (r − δ + 12 ϑ2)t + ϑWt Ryder, Jr., Harl E. and Geoffrey Heal M. 1973. Optimal Growth with Intertemporally Dependent Preferences, The Review of Economic Studies Ldt. 40, no. 1, 1–31.
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