FISCAL POLICY 2010
Macroeconomics: Mo Tanweer; Harriet Thompson; Andrew Ellams
mohammed.tanweer@cantab.net
Key objectives of the topic

You should understand:
 Fiscal
policy
 What it is… why its important
 What are the current (UK) trends in fiscal variables
 What has been causing this
 Evaluate the problems of running fiscal deficits
Key terminology

What is “fiscal policy”?
Automatic stabilisers
Budget deficit
National Debt
Golden Rule
Expansionary vs
Contractionary
fiscal policy
Direct taxes vs Indirect taxes
PSBR vs PSNCR
Cyclical vs Structural
deficit
Capital vs Current G
Budget 2009 (T)
Budget 2009 (G)
Budget position
 £676
bn (G) - £498 bn (T) =
-£178

bn i.e. a budget deficit
What is the relationship between this number and the
national debt?
 What does this mean in context?
 £178 billion new borrowing this year works out as:


£487,671,000 a day in extra borrowing
£20,319,600 an hour in extra borrowing
 £338,660

a minute in extra borrowing
£5,643 a second in extra borrowing
Compared to revenues of…:
The average person earns about £25,000 per annum
 They get a personal tax allowance of £6,475 in 2009/10
 Their taxable income is there £18,525
 They will pay the BASIC INCOME TAX RATE of 20% on this
 That is £3,705
 However they will also pay National Insurance at about
9.4%
 That is another £1,741.35
 Making their DIRECT TAX BILL = £5,146.35 in 2009/10

 The
Government is borrowing more in ONE second, than
one (average) person’s entire direct tax bill for a year.
What has happened to the deficit?
Keynesian stimulus
Bank bailouts
Consumption down
Corporation tax receipts
Recession
Ratchet Effect
Financing two wars
Unemployment
Net debt
At the end of
January 2010, net
debt was £848.5
billion, equivalent
to 59.5% of GDP.
This is predicted to
rise to almost 80%
of GDP by
2013/2014.
Print money to finance it?
Inflation… higher interest
rates… crowding out
Don’t Panic

Alistair Darling has already leaked that the March
2009 Budget GROWTH FORECASTS were
overoptimistic at -3.75% for 2009 and revised it to
-4.75% in this PBR
Explain the trend in the two variables between 2015-2018
Evaluating a (£178bn) deficit
The interest burden.
What happens when Inflation
Global coordinated fiscal
rates rise?
expansion
Greece Mark II?
Fiscal expansion necessary
% of GDP (fiscal drag)
Monetary policy weak
Compared to other countries?
Credit ratings
Breaches Golden Rule
Bond yields / exchange
rates /equity markets /
Economists’ letter
Can we finance it? (When
QE ends?)
Mervyn King;
Breaches Sustainable
Investment Rule
Euro membership?
Capital G?
Crowding out (in?)
Credibility
Intergenerational
Ricardian Equivalence issues
“Today’s borrowing is
tomorrow’s taxes”.
International
competitiveness
…as a % of GDP

Explain the gap between the red and blue lines
…structural deficit comparison:
Why has the deficit increased?
The primary balance is government net borrowing excluding interest payments on government
liabilities. The tax burden is the ratio of tax receipts to GDP.
Structural balances among the EU member
states
What does the UK spend comparatively more or less on than
other EU members?
EU comparisons
…International comparison: PIIGS
contagion
…Greece Mark II?
The UK could be the
next Greece!
Last month an OECD list
of the countries with the
most vulnerable public
finances put Britain in
fourth place behind
Ireland, Greece and
Portugal - the 'PIIGS‘
because of their
hefty government debt
burdens and
uncompetitive
economies.
FISCAL RULES FRAMEWORK 1998
(The Code for Fiscal Stability)

Golden Rule
 Over
the economic cycle, the government will borrow
only to invest and not to fund current government
spending.

Sustainable Investment Rule
 Government
net debt as a percentage of GDP will be
held over the economic cycle at a stable and prudent
level (around 40% of GDP).
A Budget Deficit spent building the CAPITAL STOCK of the nation be that in PHYSICAL CAPITAL such
as new infrastructure, new hospitals, new schools, better classrooms, more medical scanning
equipment, more tanks… or in improving the HUMAN CAPITAL of the nation through better training
and education will NOT be a problem. It will raise the capacity of our economy and subsequently
bring in more tax revenue through the growth that it causes and may be more than self-financing.
E.g. real terms p.a. increases in the NHS budget of 7.2% every year between 2002 and 2007
Gordon Brown’s prudent rules broken
But “extraordinary times require
extraordinary measures”…
The Temporary Operating Rule





“to set policies to improve the cyclically adjusted current
budget each year once the economy has emerged from
the downturn, so it reaches balance and debt is falling as a
proportion of GDP once the global shocks have worked
through the economy in full.”
TRANSLATED as:
fiscal deficit to be back below 3% by 2015/16
National Debt to start falling as a proportion of GDP as
per the new Rule in 2015/16
Get the Queen to say it maybe they’ll believe her
…% change in recent years:
…as a % of real GDP
UK bondholders in 2008/09 according
to Debt Management Office
The Maastricht criteria
In addition to these five self-imposed criteria, the UK would also have to meet the EU's economic
convergence criteria ("Maastricht criteria") before being allowed to adopt the euro. These are:
1. Inflation rate
No more than 1.5 percentage points higher than the three lowest inflation member states of the EU.
2. Government finance (the Stability and Growth Pact)
Annual government deficit: The ratio of the annual government deficit to GDP must not exceed 3% at the
end of the preceding fiscal year. If not, it is at least required to reach a level close to 3%. Only
exceptional and temporary excesses would be granted for exceptional cases.
Government debt: The ratio of national debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding
fiscal year. Even if the target cannot be achieved due to the specific conditions, the ratio must have
sufficiently diminished and must be approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace.
3. Exchange rate
Applicant countries should have joined the exchange-rate mechanism (ERM II) under the European Monetary
System (EMS) for two consecutive years and should not have devaluated its currency during the period.
4. Long-term interest rates
The nominal long-term interest rate must not be more than two percentage points higher than in the three
lowest inflation member states.
The Maastricht criteria
How is the UK doing if we update the charts below?
The Stability and Growth Pact
Given recent economic conditions, EU leaders have agreed that
the flexibility provided for in the Stability and Growth Pact
should be used, so that fiscal consolidation is only undertaken in
line with economic recovery.
Under the excessive deficit procedure, to which 20 (of the 27) EU
member states are now subject, the EU’s Economic and Financial
Affairs Council has recommended that the UK brings its budget
deficit below the 3% reference value by 2014-15.
•Is the UK on track to do this? UK SAYS NO!!
•Will other EU countries achieve the target?
And if you are still worried…
There have already been political clashes over the speed of reduction
of the budget deficit. Cameron
Government spending will have to grow less than the UK economy
for the next 5-6 years. ALL PARTIES AGREE ON THIS! (but disagree
on where and how fast to do it)
Tax revenues will have to rise faster than growth of the economy.