Ann. Henri Poincaré 4, Suppl. 1 (2003) S303 – S317 c Birkhäuser Verlag, Basel, 2003 1424-0637/03/01S303-15 DOI 10.1007/s00023-003-0924-z Annales Henri Poincaré Solar Neutrino Production Douglas Gough Abstract. It is commonly and quite plausibly presumed that neutrino flavour transitions are responsible for essentially all of the discrepancy between the observed flux of neutrinos from the Sun and the theoretically calculated neutrino production rate. Indeed, the comparison between the detection rates by SuperKamiokande and by the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory are consistent with this presumption. Helioseismological analysis has set quite tight constraints on the conditions in the Sun’s core, where the neutrino-emitting nuclear reactions take place. These constraints have been obtained subject to certain assumptions which need to be investigated before secure precise conclusions concerning neutrino production can be drawn. 1 The standard solar model The so-called standard solar model is not a true standard. It is a standard only so far as the general principles of its construction are concerned – and even those vary with time. Therefore, when discussing differences between measured neutrino fluxes and a standard solar model, one must always be meticulous in recording which standard model is being referred to. A standard solar model is spherically symmetrical, in hydrostatic equilibrium. It is evolved either from some early stage of its existence as a star, such as the base of the probably fully convective Hayashi track, or, more frequently, from only the putative zero-age main sequence: a homogeneous state in thermal balance, the rate Ln of generation of thermal energy by nuclear reactions being balanced by the luminosity L radiated by photons at the surface r = R. The only process that modifies the structure (on the main sequence) after the zero age is the change in chemical composition. This is brought about principally by nuclear transmutation in the core, and, to a much lesser extent, by the gravitational settling of heavy elements. The gravitational energy liberated by these processes is tiny compared with the nuclear energy. No internal motion is explicitly considered, with the exception that in the convection zone (which occupies the outer 29 per cent by radius of the model) the chemical composition is taken to be homogenized, and a simple mixing-length formula is adopted to relate the flux of heat and, rarely, momentum to the superadiabatic temperature gradient. Thus there is no macroscopic mixing of the products of the nuclear reactions in the core. The mass of the model is conserved – there is neither mass loss nor accretion – and rotation and the magnetic field are ignored. It seems that all of these simplifications are quite reasonable. S304 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré Moreover, they render it possible, in principle, for anyone to reproduce the results (within numerical error). Given the mass M of the star, the model is evolved for a time t to its current state, defined according to its radius R and its luminosity L, and the surface abundance ratio Zs /Xs , which is determined spectroscopically; here X is the relative hydrogen abundance (by mass) and Z is the abundance of heavy elements (i.e. all elements other than H and 4 He), the abundance of 4 He being Y = 1 − X − Z. That current state is achieved by choosing appropriate values for the initial composition (X0 , Y0 , Z0 ), and also for a parameter α which relates the mixing length in the prescription for convection to the pressure scale height. The age t is believed to be about 4.55 Gy (e.g. von Hippel, Simpson and Manset, 2001), but the precise value adopted for modeling differs from model to model. In order to reduce predictions of different models to a common age it is adequate to extrapolate linearly, using partial derivatives that have been quoted in the literature (e.g. by Bahcall and Ulrich, 1988), some of which I reproduce in §4. Standard solar models have been computed with a variety of equations of state, opacity formulae and nuclear reaction rates. To assess the dependence of the neutrino fluxes on the values of the cross-sections that have been adopted, one can again use linear extrapolation with published partial derivatives; to assess the dependence on equation of state and opacity is more difficult, and usually requires numerical computation. However, Bahcall and his collaborators in several publications (e.g. Bahcall and Ulrich, 1988) have explicitly addressed the sensitivity of the neutrino fluxes to a host of the uncertainties in the theory, and ChristensenDalsgaard (1996) has considered the sensitivity of other properties of the models. As is well known, the fluxes of solar neutrinos measured at the Earth are substantially less than the corresponding theoretical values computed from standard solar models under the assumption of no neutrino flavour transitions. The discrepancies have triggered an enormous amount of research into solar modeling, resulting in keenly honed models which can be relied upon to reproduce the consequences of the physics that has been put into them. 2 The principal nuclear reactions To appreciate how neutrino production depends on conditions in the solar core it is necessary to consider the balance of the thermonuclear reactions. I shall concentrate on the principal neutrino-emitting reactions of the pp chain: 3 He(p, e+ ν)4 He hep (2 × 10−5 %) | p(p, e+ ν)2 H(p, γ) 3 He(3 He, 2p) 4 He ppI (85%) | | 3 He(4 He, γ) 7 Be(e− , ν)7 Li(p,4 He)4 He ppII (15%) p(pe− , ν)2 H | 7 Be(p, γ)8 B(e+ ν)8 Be∗ (4 He)4 He ppIII (0.02%) . Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S305 The figures in parentheses are approximately the percentage terminations via the corresponding branch of the chain at the centre of a standard model; about 0.25% of the deuterium is produced by the pep reaction. Because the temperature does not vary by a very large amount through the energy-generating core, it is adequate to approximate the temperature dependence of the reaction rates by power laws. All but the pep reaction and the spontaneous decays of 8 B and 8 Be are two-body reactions, between species i and j, say, whose rates per unit mass may be written rij Rij Xi Xj ρT ηij , where Xk is the abundance of species k, ρ is density, and Rij and ηij are constants. For the reactions of interest I shall use atomic number unambiguously for the nuclear-species label k, for I shall not need to consider explicitly the details of the relatively rapid terminating branches of the chain. I shall use the label e for electrons. Since the abundant elements are almost fully ionized, the electron abundance is approximately 12 (1 + X). The three-body pep reaction rate can therefore be written rpep Rpep (1 + X)X 2 ρ2 T ηpep . Except in the outermost reaches of the core, where the reactions are slow, all the components of the chain of reactions are in balance, the overall reaction rate being determined by the slow pp and pep reactions which gradually reduce the abundance X of hydrogen fuel. Since the reaction rates decrease with radius, r, through the core, as also do ρ and T , hydrogen exhaustion decreases outwards, leaving a positive gradient of X (Figure 1). The proton capture by deuterium is essentially instantaneous, so the entire process creating 3 He from H is controlled by the pp reaction. Figure 1: Neutrino production in a standard solar model. The 7 Be and 8 B neutrino fluxes, Φi with i = 7 and 8 respectively, are proportional to 0R φi dr, where r is a radius variable and R is the radius of the Sun. The pp neutrino production rate and, approximately, the thermal energy generation rate are proportional to φpp ; the pep production rate varies similarly (although not identically). The functions that are plotted are the normalized production rates fνx = Φ−1 x φx . The temperature T and the hydrogen abundance X (whose ordinate scale is on the right of the diagram) are included for comparison. S306 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré For a good simple first approximation to the sensitivities of the neutrinoproducing reactions to conditions in the core it is adequate to balance the 3 Heproducing reaction against 3 He destruction by only the ppI chain, and similarly to balance the 7 Be-producing reaction against 7 Be destruction by only the ppII chain. Thus A11 X 2 ρT η11 A33 X32 ρT η33 (1) A34 (1 − X)X3 ρT η34 A7e (1 + X)X7 T η7e , (2) and, because Z 1, from which the abundance X7 of 7 Be can be calculated. Finally, the abundance X8 of 8 B can be calculated from the p,γ reaction with 7 Be: r8 = A8 X8 ρ = A71 X7 XρT η71 . (3) In the solar core, ηpep η11 4, η31 8, η33 16, η34 17, η7e − 12 and η71 13. Therefore the neutrino-producing reaction rates are given approximately by rpep Rpep (1 + X)X 2 ρ2 T 4 , (4) r11 R11 X 2 ρT 4 , r13 R13 R11 /2R33 X 2 ρT 2 , r7e R34 R11 /2R33 (1 − X)XρT 11 , R11 1 − X 2 24.5 R34 R71 X ρT . r8 R7e 2R33 1 + X (5) (6) (7) (8) The exact functional forms of the neutrino production rates per unit radius r in the Sun, φpp = 4πr2 ρr11 , φhep = 4πr2 ρr13 , φ7 = 4πr2 ρr7e and φ8 = 4πr2 ρr8 , are plotted in Figure 1. Because most of the terminations are via ppI, the thermal energy generation rate is essentially, although not exactly, proportional to φpp Q, where Q is the total energy released per p-p reaction in converting 4 protons and 2 electrons to 4 He (it is not exactly proportional because there are losses associated with neutrino emission, and because the branching ratios between ppI and ppII and, much less importantly, between ppII and ppIII vary with temperature); the functional form of φpep is similar, but not identical, to that of φpp . In addition to the reactions I have discussed, there are also those of the CNO cycle. Like the 8 B rate, the neutrino production rates are quite sensitive to temperature – they are roughly proportional to XZρT 20 – but the total neutrino flux is quite small, so I shall not discuss them explicitly. They must, of course, be taken into account when making detailed comparison between theory and measurement. Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S307 3 Helioseismology Some aspects of the structure of the Sun have been determined seismologically. Observable seismic modes are resonant acoustic waves, which sense, above all, the sound speed c. In addition, but to a lesser extent, they sense the density, ρ, through both buoyancy and the self-gravity of the waves. From accurate measurements of thousands of resonant frequencies it has been possible to determine certain properties of both c(r) and ρ(r) with remarkable precision. (Deviations from spherical symmetry are tiny, and are hardly detectable; in any case they appear to be confined to the near-surface layers of the Sun, and are therefore unlikely to have a substantial impact on studies of neutrino production.) Given a stellar model (usually referred to as a reference model) whose structure is pointwise close to that of the Sun, it is adequate to estimate the small deviation of the model from the Sun by linearizing the frequency differences δνi of modes i in the differences δc and δρ between the sound speed and density of the Sun and the corresponding values in the model. Thus δνi is the sum of weighted integrals of δc and δρ, the weight functions Kci , Kρi being different for different modes. By taking an appropriate linear combination of the data, αi (r0 )δνi , it is possibleto design corresponding weight functions Ac (r; r0 ) = αi Kci and Aρ (r; r0 ) = αi Kρi which make the frequency differences much easier to interpret. For example, Ac (r; r0 ) can be designed to be localized about r = r0 with Aρ everywhere small; if the coefficients αi are normalized to make Ac unimodular (i.e. having an integral of unity), then αi δνi , considered as a functional of the model, represents a localized average of δc. Similarly one can construct a localized average of δρ, but that is harder because the density kernels are smaller than thesoundspeed kernels (in the sense that they project, without the combinations αi δνi being too seriously contaminated by data errors, into an accessible function space of lower dimension than that effectively spanned by {Kci }). Alternatively, one can seek combinations of the data that generate functions δc, δρ which, when added to the sound speed cm and density ρm of the model, reproduce the observations precisely (or, more usefully, merely reproduce the observations to within the observational errors; functions that satisfy the real, necessarily erroneous data precisely tend to have highly oscillatory components which are extremely sensitive to the data, and therefore to their errors, and which therefore have no useful physical meaning. It is more prudent to try to select functions that are robust to data errors yet which reproduce the data adequately. How that selection is made, formally, and often really, depends on prejudice). The resulting representations of the Sun constitute an extremely valuable data set with which to compare the theoretical solar models. To illustrate how closely a modern standard model represents the Sun, I illustrate in Figure 2 the relative deviations δc2 /c2 = 2δc/c and δρ/ρ between the Sun and the standard model S of Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. (1996). The reason for considering c2 and not c is that for a perfect gas, which roughly represents the solar material, c2 is proportional to temperature (and is inversely proportional S308 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré Figure 2: Relative differences (a) δc2 /c2 and (b) δρ/ρ between the spherically averaged squared sound speed and density in the Sun (inferred seismologically) and the squared sound speed and density in the standard model of Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. (1996). The seismic data are spatial averages, weighted by localized kernels whose characteristic widths (approximately full widths at half maxima) are denoted by the horizontal bars; the vertical bars represent formal standard errors (which are correlated). The theoretical model was computed with Z0 /X0 = 0.0245, and Y0 0.27 (from Takata and Gough, 2001). to the mean molecular mass), so c2 is perhaps a more natural variable to think about. The quantities plotted are averages of the pointwise differences, weighted by localized kernels each of whose characteristic spreads (roughly 1.04 of the full width at half maximum) is denoted by a horizontal bar. Each vertical bar represents ± one standard error arising from the random errors (assumed to be independent) in the frequency data. Care must be taken in interpreting small-scale undulations in any curve one might draw by eye through the data plotted in the figure, because the errors in those data are correlated. If one is interested in trends and does wish to imagine such a curve, then as a rule of thumb one might first multiply the errors by a factor 3, but even that should be taken with a large pinch of salt because the only published analysis of such error correlation (Gough, Sekii and Stark, 1996) was carried out on a somewhat different problem with a different (and rather smaller) frequency data set. A remarkable property of the functionals plotted in Figure 2 is that their values are so small. That almost certainly implies that the reference model is quite a good representation of the Sun. However, the model differs from the Sun by a significant amount, because the deviations δc2 /c2 and δρ/ρ exceed the formal standard errors by a large factor, more than 10 in places. The situation is qualitatively similar if other standard models are used as the reference, such as the model of Bahcall and Pinsonneault (1992), the model of Brun, Turck-Chièze and Zahn (1999), or that of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001). It is important that in the fullness of time the cause of these deviations be understood. The functionals plotted in Figure 2 each appear to have a component that varies gradually with r, and a prominent localized feature (in the values of δc2 /c2 Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S309 immediately beneath the base of the convection zone at r/R 0.71, and also in the apparent derivative of δρ/ρ in the same location if one does not heed my warning about error correlation). The large-scale component is probably a product of small errors that have a global impact on the model, such as in one or more of the nuclear reaction rates, or the chemical composition; these have a direct influence on the temperature or pressure, which are directly constrained by the equations of stellar structure through their spatial derivatives. The somewhat larger-amplitude localized feature is the product of an error in a local variable, whose derivative is not directly so constrained. It is probably a result of rotationally induced mixing in a thin layer beneath the convection zone called the tachocline. Material that would otherwise have been richer in helium than the convection zone as a result of gravitational settling is homogenized with the convection zone; consequently the mean molecular mass, and also the density, is decreased in the tachocline, and the sound speed is thereby increased (Elliott and Gough, 1999). Such a localized anomaly far out in the envelope has a negligible direct effect on the neutrino fluxes. The smoothly varying component, however, is likely to have some repercussions, albeit perhaps small, on our inferences about conditions in the core. 4 Neutrino fluxes In the days when modelers were trying to adjust their models to reproduce the measured neutrino fluxes without admitting neutrino transitions, it was essential to appreciate how the theoretical fluxes respond to perturbations to a model. That requires one to know where in the core neutrinos of different energy are produced, and how the fluxes vary with ρ, T and X. Much of that information is contained in Figure 1 and equations (4)–(8), together with the energy information contained in Figure 3. At present, however, with the many new parameters characterizing neutrino flavour transitions that need to be determined, reliable fine tuning of the models against neutrino data is hardly possible. Only the high-energy 8 B production rate, inferred from SuperKamiokande and the Sudbury Neutrino Observatory (SNO), is currently available (Ahmad et al., 2001, 2002). Fortunately, that is consistent with the models, as I explain below. The lower-energy neutrinos contribute somewhat to the radiochemical detections by 37 Cl at Homestake (Cleveland et al., 1998) and, more importantly, to the 71 Ga detections by SAGE (Abdurashitov et al., 1999) and GALLEX (Hampel et al. 1999). By combining all the measurements, estimates of values of neutrino parameters such as those indicated in Figure 4 have been constructed on the basis of transitions between electron neutrinos and neutrinos of some one other flavour, but we must await new neutrino data of different kinds before it is possible to determine all the parameters. One can estimate the neutrino production rates in the Sun by adjusting the fluxes of a standard model, using differences δc2 and δρ, such as those illustrated in Figure 2, and the scaling laws (4)–(8). The results depend, of course, on the equation of state and the putative nuclear reaction rates that are adopted. To close S310 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré Figure 3: Spectrum of neutrinos from a standard solar model. The energy ranges in which the various solar neutrino detectors are sensitive are indicated above the graph (from J.N. Bahcall). the scaling it is necessary also to estimate X and T , which are related to c2 and ρ by the equation of state but cannot be inferred directly in a radiative zone by seismology alone. How one estimates X depends on what is assumed about the state of the radiative zone. If only the seismically more precisely determined c2 is used, then perhaps the closest approximation to the standard-model assumptions is to presume that the zone is in hydrostatic and thermal balance, with no macroscopic material motion to transport any of the products of the nuclear reactions. These assumptions were used for this purpose by Gough and Kosovichev (1990): they are prescribed by the energy equation r−2 ∂(r2 F )/∂r = 4πr2 ρ , where F = −(4ac̃T 3 /3κρ)∂T /∂r is the radiative heat flux; here is the nuclear heatgeneration rate, κ is the opacity, and a and c̃ are respectively the radiation density constant and the speed of light. These constraints, together with the equation of state relating c2 , ρ, T and X, enable one to determine X and T . Similar procedures have been adopted by Shibahashi (1993, 1999) and Shibahashi and Takata (1996). (It is important to realize that in determining the opacity κ it is necessary to specify the distribution of the heavy elements in the Sun; it is perhaps most natural to adopt the distribution of the standard reference model, although taking a uniform distribution has been more common.) If, on the other hand, the seismological determination of both ρ and c2 are used, then it is more robust to estimate X by adding to the reference abundance, after due homogenization of the tachocline, a (small) constant whose value is determined by demanding that the luminosity be unchanged; that procedure also leaves essentially unchanged the amount of hydrogen consumed by nuclear reactions during the main-sequence Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S311 Flux Capture rates (snu) Detector 37 Cl 71 Ga SK+SNO BPB BTCZ JCD Sun Obs. BPB BTCZ JCD Sun Obs. Obs. pep 0.22 hep 0.04 pp 0 7 Be 1.15 8B 5.76 CNO 0.42 0.22 0.22 0.04 0.04 0 0 1.13 1.11 5.56 5.43 0.41 0.40 2.8 0.1 69.7 34.2 12.1 9.0 2.8 2.8 0.1 0.1 69.8 69.7 33.8 33.2 11.7 11.4 8.8 8.6 (106 cm−2 s−1 ) total 7.6±1.2 7.0 7.4 7.2 2.56±0.23 128±8 127 127 126 74.6±5 8B 5.05 4.99 4.87 4.82 5.05 4.99 4.87 4.82 5.44±0.99 Table 1: Neutrino fluxes produced by various representations of the Sun, and the measured fluxes on Earth. BPB, BTCZ and JCD are the standard solar models of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001), Brun, Turck-Chièze and Zahn (1999) and Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. (1996); ‘Sun’ represents the predictions of the seismic representation of the Sun presented by Gough and Scherrer (2002), with T and X determined from c2 and ρ as described in the text, using the nuclear reaction rates adopted by Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001). The 37 Cl observations are from Cleveland et al. (1998), SAGE and GALLEX from Abdurashitov et al. (1999) and Hampel et al. (1999) respectively, and SuperKamiokande and SNO from Fukuda et al. (2001) and Ahmad et al. (2001). The ages of the standard models from the zero-age main sequence (onset of hydrogen burning) are 4.57 Gy (BPB), probably 4.55 Gy (BTCZ) and 4.52 Gy (JCD). The fluxes can be reduced to a common age with the help of the logarithmic derivatives ∂lnΦ/∂lnt quoted by Bahcall and Ulrich (1988): 0.00, -0.11, -0.07, 0.69, 1.28 and 1.13 for pep, hep, pp, 7 Be, 8 B and CNO neutrinos respectively. evolution. The neutrino fluxes that result when the reaction rates of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001) are adopted are listed in Table 1. Included in the table, for comparison, are the fluxes of the standard models of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001), Brun, Turck-Chièze and Zahn (2001) and Christensen-Dalsgaard et al. (1996). The differences are, at present, less than the uncertainties in the inference that can be drawn from the neutrino flux measurements. There are three kinds of neutrino flux measurements that have been undertaken to date, two radiochemical and two scattering. The first of the radiochemical measurements (Homestake) involved neutrino capture by 37 Cl, the first results from which were announced nearly four decades ago (Davis, 1964); the others (SAGE and GALLEX) involve capture by 71 Ga. The scattering measurements use water: ordinary water in the case of Kamiokande (Fukuda et al., 1996), and subsequently the larger SuperKamiokande (Fukuda et al.,1998), and heavy water in the case of SNO. All the detectors are more sensitive to neutrinos of higher energy, but the thresholds differ (Figure 3). SAGE and GALLEX have the lowest threshold; they are the only detectors in operation that are sensitive to the pp neutrinos, and, because there are so many pp neutrinos, these neutrinos dominate the counts. The S312 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré Homestake threshold is too high to detect pp neutrinos; its counts are a combination of principally pep, 7 Be and 8 B neutrino captures, together with a small contribution from the CNO cycle, with 8 B neutrinos dominating. The scattering detectors are sensitive essentially to only the 8 B neutrinos (there is only a very small contribution from hep), and therefore provide a cleaner, and more sensitive, diagnostic. The only observational inference that can be compared directly with the inferred solar fluxes at present is that of Ahmad et al. (2000, 2001). It concerns only the high-energy 8 B neutrinos, and was drawn initially by combining the electronscattering data from SuperKamiokande (Fukuda et al. 2001), which provide a nonuniformly weighted average Φes of the fluxes of neutrinos of all flavours: Φes = Φe + βΦx (where Φe is the actual electron-neutrino flux at the detector, Φx is the combined flux of µ and, presumably, τ neutrinos which have been created by transitions from electron neutrinos, and β = 0.154 was calculated theoretically) with the charge-current data from SNO, which are sensitive to only Φe . The data are plotted on a Φe − Φx diagram in Figure 5; they intersect at Φe = 1.75 ± 0.14cm−2 s−1 and Φx = 3.69 ± 1.13 × 106 cm−2 s−1 , from which one obtains a total neutrino flux Φ = Φe + Φx = 5.44 ± 0.99cm−2 s−1 at the Earth (actually at a distance of 1 AU from the Sun). This result has been confirmed recently by Ahmad et al. in their second paper, in which they report neutral-current data from SNO which are also sensitive to all neutrino flavours, although with a relative weighting which is somewhat different from the electron-scattering value. The newer SNO measurement is not as precise as the SuperKamiokande measurement because there has not yet been time enough to accumulate the data. The total neutrino flux Φ corresponds to the production rate of electron neutrinos in the Sun. The agreement with the theoretical predictions recorded in Table 1 is a remarkable scientific achievement. It suggests very strongly that the solar models actually provide a good representation of the Sun. This is especially the case because the 8 B-neutrino production rate is so very sensitive to temperature. One anticipates, therefore, that the theoretical predictions of the less-temperaturesensitive 7 Be and particularly the pp and pep neutrinos are much more robust. 5 Concluding remarks The remarkable agreement between the neutrino production rates predicted by the solar models and the direct neutrino-flux measurements is partly fortuitous. Although, as I have explained, the models are in quite good agreement with helioseismological inference, there are significant discrepancies. These need to be understood, and not merely explained away, before one can have confidence in our view of the state of the solar interior. It is not uncommon for solar modelers to compare their models with just the seismologically determined sound speed through the Sun, for that is the quantity we know the most accurately; sometimes only a particular simple feature of the Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S313 Figure 4: An MSW neutrino-oscillation solution for ∆m2 (difference between the (principal) squared mass eigenvalues associated with the electron-neutrino transitions) and the mixing angle δ, obtained from the standard solar model of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001) and the neutrino flux measurements (from Bahcall, Gonzalez-Garcia and Pẽna-Garay, 2002). sound speed is considered, such as the inferred depth of the convection zone. Such scant comparison is dangerous, for it can give one a false impression of the faithfulness of the models. This was highlighted recently by Watanabe and Shibahashi (2001). By artificially varying the heavy-element abundance Z(r) in the core, they constructed a range of low-flux solar models, with ΦCl varying from 7.2 to 2.45 snu, ΦGa from 126 to 101 snu, and Φ8 from 4.8 to 1.3 ×106 cm−2 s−1 ; models with higher fluxes could equally easily have been constructed. These were not standard models, evolved from zero age, but were seismic models in hydrostatic and thermal balance. Unlike a similar set of standard models, their sound speeds all agree with those inferred for the Sun. But their densities do not agree, so many of the models can be ruled out. However, there is some leeway, because density is not determined with high accuracy. Although Watanabe and Shibahashi did not consider how their Z profiles might have come about, their results provide a stark warning that processes currently ignored in standard models, such as putative weak macroscopic circulatory flow in the radiative zone, or material and possibly heat S314 D. Gough Ann. Henri Poincaré Figure 5: Flux Φ8 of 8 B neutrinos in the form of µ and τ flavours, plotted against the flux of 8 B electron neutrinos. The charge-current data ΦSNO from SNO and the electron-scattering data cc ΦSK es from SuperKamiokande are depicted by bands of width two standard errors (±σ from the most likely value); their centres intersect at the spot. The diagonal bands bounded by solid lines inclined at -45◦ represent the total flux to within ±σ; the dashed lines represent the predictions of the standard solar model of Bahcall, Pinsonneault and Basu (2001) (after Ahmad et al., 2001). transport by waves, could be present; such processes might influence the neutrino production rates. Additionally, some of the parameters influencing microscopic processes, such as nuclear reaction rates or opacity, could also be in error. As a concluding example of the latter, it is interesting to note that recent work by Grevesse and Sauval (2002) and Prieto, Lambert and Asplund (2002) has led to substantial decreases in the spectroscopically estimated photospheric abundances of several heavy elements. This effectively reduces Zs /Xs . What are the implications? One cannot determine that without a detailed calculation, but one can make an estimate. Although the abundance revisions modify the relative abundances of the heavy elements, one can, as a first approximation, ignore that. From the standpoint of stellar structure, the effective change in opacity is roughly equivalent to reducing Zs /Xs by some 16 per cent. It is interesting that the change is broadly consistent with the spectroscopic error estimates, but it is rather greater than the presumably overoptimistic estimates of Basu (1998), which are based on a helioseismological analysis in which the OPAL opacity was accepted, with due warning, as also Vol. 4, 2003 Solar Neutrino Production S315 was the OPAL equation of state, without comment, despite evidence that it is deficient at the helioseismological level of precision (Kosovichev et al., 1992; Baturin et al., 2000). With the help of the partial derivatives ∂lnΦpep /∂ln(Zs /Xs ) −0.1, ∂lnΦhep /∂ln(Zs /Xs ) −0.2, ∂lnΦ7 /∂ln(Zs /Xs ) 0.6, ∂lnΦ8 /∂ln(Zs /Xs ) 1.3 and ∂lnΦCNO /∂ln(Zs /Xs ) 1.9, which were computed from the grid of theoretical solar models of Gough and Novotny (1990), one can estimate that the fluxes ΦCl , ΦGa and Φ8 from standard solar models are reduced by 1.4 snu, 8.3 snu, and 1.0 ×106 cm−2 s−1 , respectively. Seismic models with given c2 (r), on the other hand, suggest that the reductions are 0.8 snu, 3.3 snu and 0.62 ×106 cm−2 s−1 . In either case, the deviation from the values inferred by Ahmad et al. (2001, 2002) are increased. Evidently, there remains more work to do to increase the reliability of the predictions of the neutrino production rates for the purpose of constraining neutrino-transition parameters more tightly. 6 Acknowledgements I am very grateful to Günter Houdek for stimulating conversations, to Di Sword for preparing the LATEX file, and to Richard Sword for helping with the diagrams. References [1] J.N. Abdurashitov, et al., Phys. Rev. C (Nucl. Phys.), 60, 055801 (1999). [2] Q.R. Ahmad, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 87, 071301–071306 (2001). [3] Q.R. Ahmad, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett., 89, 011301-1–5 (2002). [4] J.N. Bahcall, M.C. Gonzalez-Garcia, and C. Peña-Garay, 2002, JHEP 04(2002)007, hep-ph/0111150. [5] J.N. Bahcall and M.H. Pinsonneault, Rev. Mod. 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