Time-dependent tomography of hemispheric features using interplanetary scintillation (IPS) remote-sensing observations B.V. Jackson, P.P. Hick and A. Buffington Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, U.S.A. M. Kojima, M. Tokumaru, K. Fujiki, T. Ohmi and M. Yamashita Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Japan Abstract. We have developed a Computer Assisted Tomography (CAT) program that modifies a timedependent three-dimensional kinematic heliospheric model to fit interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. The tomography program iteratively changes this global model to least-squares fit IPS data. The short time intervals of the kinematic modeling (~1 day) force the heliospheric reconstructions to depend on outward solar wind motion to give perspective views of each point in space accessible to the observations, allowing reconstruction of interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) as well as corotating structures. We show these models as velocity or density Carrington maps and remote views. We have studied several events, including the July 14, 2000 Bastille-day halo CME. We check our results by comparison with additional remote-sensing observations, and observations from near-Earth spacecraft. INTRODUCTION and solar distance by means of a power law. These previous IPS tomographic programs all assumed that the kinematic heliospheric model remains unchanged over the duration of the observations. Thus the observed heliospheric structures do not change other than by outward radial expansion within this time period. The new tomographic modeling technique described here relaxes the assumption that heliospheric structure remains constant over time. In this newest extension a global kinematic model is formed at regular time intervals, and the iterative process provides the threedimensional heliospheric parameters that fit observed data. The next section describes the tomographic program that has been developed. The third section compares and calibrates the kinematic models based on the IPS data to Earth-based in situ measurements. The fourth section displays and discusses the kinematic model values as a remote observer would view them. We conclude in the last section. In solar physics, there have been numerous attempts to reconstruct coronal structure and the heliosphere in three dimensions. These techniques have been developed for coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to understand better the physical principles of their initiation. Using slightly differing techniques others (1, 2, 3) have analyzed views from the Earth using Thomson-scattering data to obtain three-dimensional results. Since the 1960's interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements have been used to probe solar wind features with ground-based meter-wavelength radio observations (4, 5). Observations from the UCSD (6) and Nagoya (7) multi-site scintillation array systems have been used to determine velocities in the interplanetary medium since the early 1970's. The IPS intensity scintillation observations, that arise from smallscale (~200 km) density variations, highlight heliospheric disturbances of larger scale that vary from one day to the next and are often associated with geomagnetic storms on Earth (8). We have developed a Computer Assisted Tomography (CAT) program that modifies a timedependent three-dimensional kinematic heliospheric model to fit IPS observations. The tomography program iteratively changes this global model to least-squares fit IPS data. Three-dimensional results for IPS data covering a wide range of elongations have been obtained using a heliospheric model that incorporates both outward solar wind flow and solar rotation (9, 10, 11, 12, 13). Here scintillation strength is caused by small-scale density variations that is in turn scaled to bulk density TOMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS The IPS technique relies on several assumptions to relate changes in scintillation level and velocity integrated along each line of sight to local changes in the scintillation level and velocity. In weak scattering (assumed here exclusively) the Born approximation holds, and the diffraction pattern is a sum of contributions from each thin scattering layer perpendicular to the line of sight (14). The analysis CP679, Solar Wind Ten: Proceedings of the Tenth International Solar Wind Conference, edited by M. Velli, R. Bruno, and F. Malara © 2003 American Institute of Physics 0-7354-0148-9/03/$20.00 75 Generally, valid IPS velocity data are available from the same radio sources as observed in scintillation level each day. IPS velocities are based on observations from up to four scintillation arrays operated STELab, Japan. To use these data our tomography program assumes that the line of sight IPS velocity follows a similar line of sight weighting relationship to that of the intensity scintillation. We approximate the velocity observed at Earth as in (11) [and see (12), for a more complete formulation and validity tests]. The UCSD tomography program (11) applies corrections to a kinematic model, modifying the model until there is a least squares best fit match with the observations. Density (rather than the small-scale density variation) is used and propagated outward in the UCSD kinematic model. The density and velocity are projected outward from a reference surface (source surface) below the lowest lines of sight. Consistent approximately with in situ spacecraft observations, the solar wind motion is assumed to be radial outward from this surface. Thus, for example, when faster solar wind catches up with slower wind, the resultant solar wind speed is continued after merging by assuming both mass and mass flux are conserved within the latitudinal band resolved by the model. At the reference surface the velocity structure of the model is smoothed using a Gaussian filter weighted according to the angular distance of the adjacent resolution elements on this surface. Since the resolution of rectangular Carrington coordinate maps increase in longitude with increasing latitude, this filter is used to even the spatial resolution over the whole map. In the kinematic model described here, the heliosphere can change over time intervals as short as one day. This assumption essentially limits the tomographic reconstruction to rely on outward solar wind flow to form the perspective views. For each observed line of sight at a given time, the position along this line in the model is calculated. The model g-levels along each line of sight defined by the densities are summed using the weighting mentioned in Eq. 3. These model values are then compared with the observed glevels, and this comparison is used to change the model. For one solar rotation typically 500 to 1000 lines of sight can be used to determine model density from the scintillation-level measurements and velocity. This implies 20 to 40 crossed line of sight components contribute input to latitude and longitude positions each day subject to the Gaussian spatial filter described earlier, and a similar Gaussian filter that combines data from one day to the next. This implies a possibility of determining the density and velocity for 20 to 40 latitude and longitude locations each day. In practice, lines of sight often extend over several consecutive time steps. The amount and quality of the available observations and the heliographic coordinate resolution and temporal data cadence dictate this resolution even more strongly. proceeds much as in (11), but using evenly placed time steps in the analysis. Radio source scintillation-level observations have been obtained from several tens of sources measured each day by the STELab Kiso radio telescope from 1997 to the present. This analysis used data from a relatively short time interval during July 2000. The value of the disturbance factor g is defined as g = m/<m>, (1) where m is the fractional scintillation level ∆I/I, the ratio of source intensity variation to intensity and <m> is the mean level of ∆I/I for the source at that elongation. Scintillation level measurements from the STELab radio facility analyses are available at a given sky location as an intensity variation of the source signal strength. For each source, data are automatically edited to remove any obvious interference discerned in the daily observations. To yield g-levels in real time, the white noise PWN is subtracted from the scintillation signal spectrum P(f), and then system gain corrections are determined by automatically calibrating with the white noise level at the high frequency end of the power spectrum. To obtain m, the white noise is subtracted from the scintillation signal, f (2) m = ∫ (P(f) − P )/P df . 2 f1 WN WN At UCSD, g-values for a source are determined in real time from m by a least square fit to the axially symmetric solar wind model. We assume that it is sufficient to fit 8 daily measurements in order to obtain a value of <m> for a given source. With the STELab 327 MHz analyses weak scattering results are usually obtained from sources outward from 11.5° elongation. However, since ample data are available, our following analyses use a 17.5° limit to be certain to be in the weak scattering regime. The scintillation level weighting factor along the line of sight WC (z) can be approximated in weak scattering as in (11) at the 327 MHz frequency of the STELab IPS observations. The scintillation level m is related to the small-scale density variations along the line of sight by m2 = ∫ dz ∆Ne(z)2 WC (z). (3) Here, ∆Ne(z) are the small-scale density variation values at distance z along the line of sight. The density values along the line of sight are not a priori known, but we assume that the small-scale variations scale with a power law of heliospheric density, ∆Ne = AC RPWR NePWN, (4) where AC is a proportionality constant, PWR is a power of the radial falloff (13) and PWN is the power of the density. In the present analysis, the program fits the value of AC and the values of PWR and PWN to best fit the data over the interval chosen. For the time period presented here, AC = 1, and the two powers PWR and PWN are –3.5 and 0.7, respectively, to best fit in situ density over a ten-day time interval centered on the time the Bastille-day CME reaches Earth. 76 IN-SITU COMPARISON Tomographic model densities and velocities are available in three dimensions and can be extrapolated to any heliocentric distance, for example to 1 A.U. Here they compare directly to the measured results from e.g. the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft near Earth. We smooth the ACE data into 18-hour averages, consistent with the approximate spatial resolution present from the longitudinal and temporal binning of the tomography data. The densities mapped to 1 AU are shown as a time series for rotation 1965 in Fig. 2. The correlation for rotation 1965 in model to ACE in situ values is 0.6 and 0.9 respectively for velocity and density over the 10-day period centered on the Earth arrival time of the July 14 CME. (a) FIGURE 1. Consecutive-day (July 13 and July 14, 2000 latitude and longitude line of sight projections onto the source surface. Lines of sight extend outward from Earth for 2 AU beginning near the projected sub-Earth point at the center of the map. Some lines of sight complete their projection on adjacent days. Perspective views are realized from the different weights on the source surface maps at each latitude and longitude point. (b) FIGURE 2. Rotation 1965. a) 10-day velocity time series from the three dimensional time-dependent model projected to 1 AU compared to the velocity time series from the ACE spacecraft (dashed line). b) Model and ACE density correlation. For the UCSD time dependent tomographic program using STELab data, 20° by 20° heliographic latitude and longitude resolution is used and a one day cadence. The regions near the Earth are those most frequently crossed by different lines of sight while those far from it, over the solar poles and especially to the south, are not. This is shown in Fig. 1 for two consecutive days during the Bastille-Day event. For several different perspective lines of sight to produce changes in the modeled values, we require more than one line of sight crossing on the source surface be present within a 20° by 20° heliographic interval for changes to be made at that position. If the model cannot be updated at some location, these coordinate positions are left blank in the final result. The reference surface maps are smoothed at each iteration using a Gaussian spatial filter that incorporates equal solar surface areas and a Gaussian temporal filter. These spatial and temporal filters can be varied to ensure convergence. Filter changes by large percentages have a significant effect on the result. Filter parameters were set to a 1/e width of 13.5° and 0.85 days, for the 20° by 20° and 1day model digitization, respectively during the July, 2000 interval shown here. The tomography program iterates to a solution, generally converging to an unchanging model within a few iterations. Convergence is monitored using techniques as described in (11). DISCUSSION Since few other in situ observations exist with which to compare these results, the only guarantee in the current analysis is that the three-dimensional model constructed remotely by the IPS analysis over a large portion of the heliosphere agrees with in situ data near Earth. However, we can also view the model’s shape for these events and see if they match remotely sensed data from the LASCO coronagraphs. Fig. 3a shows a LASCO C2 coronagraph image of the July 11 halo CME compared with two views of the density modeled as the CME is about to reach 1 AU. The reconstruction shows that this CME moves mostly to the east and north of the Earth as also indicated in the coronagraph image. Similarly, Fig. 3b shows the Bastille-day CME compared with two views of the reconstructed density as the CME is about to hit Earth. Given the expanse of heliosphere that the CMEs have traversed to reach 1 AU, the comparisons with LASCO near-Sun observations are excellent. The results of the present 3-dimensional reconstruction are in good agreement for the Bastille-day CME with an alternate reconstruction analysis by (15). 77 (a) FIGURE 3. LASCO C2 images and two views of the reconstruction of the halo CMEs in July, 2000 with Ne >30ecm-3 normalized to 1 AU shown. Views (left to right) are 3° across from 1 AU; 55° across from 3 AU, 30° above the ecliptic plane 45° west of the Sun-Earth line; and 100° across at 1.1 AU on the Sun-Earth line. a) July 11, 2000 CME in LASCO reconstructed July 13 at 6 UT. b) July 14 CME in LASCO reconstructed July 15 at 6 UT. (b) REFERENCES CONCLUSION In comparison with in situ data at Earth, the tomographic analysis gives superior results to previous corotating analyses (11, 12). This is true even though the spatial resolution of the present model is dramatically decreased from the corotating model to insure convergence. We reconstruct as complete as possible a global three-dimensional model to obtain a good fit to observations at Earth, even though these global models amount to only a few tens of data points per day. In real-time analysis, data drop-outs and noise make the task of forecasting CME arrival using this technique with the present STELab arrays even more problematic. We expect that only when new and bigger IPS systems are available will the technique provide a more refined tomographic analysis to accurately forecast CME arrival to within a few hours. Other large array systems at different Earth longitudes will also be helpful. The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) will allow even more complete sky coverage in density when data from it becomes available, but the SMEI analyses alone cannot as completely determine the velocities required to complete a global solar wind model. The kinematic model currently fit by the tomography can be improved significantly by using a technique where the boundary conditions (source surface) for a 3D-MHD model are adjusted to give a best fit to the three-dimensional tomographic analysis. One attempt is shown for corotating tomography in (16). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7) 8) 9) 10) 11) 12) 13) 14) 15) The work of B.V. Jackson, P.P Hick and A. Buffington was supported at the UCSD by AFOSR grant AF4962001-1-0054, NSF grant ATM 98-199947 and NASA grant NAG5-8504. 16) 78 1) Munro, R.H., Topical Conference on Solar and Interplanetary Physics, Tucson, Arizona, January 12-15, 10 (1977). Crifo, F., J.P. Picat and M. Cailloux, Solar Phys., 83, 143 (1983). 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