Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers Pierre Del Moral CNRS-UMR C55830 and University Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France. Arnaud Doucet , Gareth W. Peters Cambridge University, UK. Summary. In this paper, we propose a general methodology to sample sequentially from a sequence of probability distributions known up to a normalizing constant and defined on a common space. These probability distributions are approximated by a cloud of weighted random samples which are propagated over time using Sequential Monte Carlo methods. This methodology allows us not only to derive simple algorithms to make parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo runs interact in a principled way, but also to obtain new methods for global optimization and sequential Bayesian estimation. We demonstrate the performance of these algorithms through simulation for various integration and global optimization tasks arising in the context of Bayesian inference. Keywords: Genetic Algorithm, Importance Sampling, Resampling, Markov chain Monte Carlo, Sequential Monte Carlo, Simulated Annealing. 1. Introduction "!#%$'&( #)$*#$#+,-/.10 .324 56 7789:9:79:); !" ) +=<?>@*BADCE,FGHHHGJIK0=ADCMLON8P(QR6(S*$* $#T>U:>"!#!V*)9:($@ $ ;@W )$*"$#X-+.RY[Z\1] 9:"$*^=*+ #!""$'&_ %$'&`-+.8Ya\1]b>"$@X6)/$$c7 9:" $#d 9:*7 $6 eZ\fPWghc>#!"! !)i*a8$ijk8$@7$*"9:c# lmO$@no * !#:#()#9:!"&p $B T6 i $B@qn( 3&`*!o$*"i>%$*@sr6 !t$*"9:6uPwvxT$@B /6y+>U(z"$6'$* "X* 9:!#"d=$*@#R{ '$*#$*"B|};~}[Jo +m$*@o$U$=5;'$^* 9:!#a*9?-1w$@ a9E-+8 W):KP @#_*!#9 *#c"k39:*+c !" $#PMTT $*#!w9:$*@ c7$* 9:ona*9E$;$; !#(YJ)&:$*(* 9:!#6] #)$*#$#`- $=( #)$*"$#` K#$*)$y*q&(-y $@*d@X+= )$*%5+#!O"$9:6 # $: '$*#$*":YJ^6 ![yf Fq]P8vx$@7$l3$R )6$ !{bq& X"a*y1-+.T! X/z$*@(/)$# #)$*#$# S7+ ; 9:$*wd"n $@8 $*:!"!#$6 c$*"!#!1$#9:8jVmq&c- . 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A Generic SMC Algorithm N4- .M0 VYJZ\1BA .10 ]C úü.Mû"ý#0 þ EO-P#QSRT YæZ\DA .M0 ]G WU V ßYX U ý #V7 *ql"97 $#z-4 .M0 H¤U$V$*"9:^jVy>bl3$* ($@^o$*@: 1;@=)$*#!">"$@78 T¡on1Z ¡!éc.YJ\KG\\[ ]=d#n3"d$@W #!#%$'&e= #!#%$'& %$'&9:on3"d$*h\] [ >@î$*@ **$'$;o$_#8\fP`vx9:/$*c* 9:!#"dT h$*@e/c h$*T**$Ra$@c #**+ & +$'>`$@* 9:!##d7 #)$*#$#i G-/4 .8Ya\ DA .]m3$@897!"#¥6 _>U#d@$*Bd#n`3& ú . û"ý#þ Ùsú .Mû"ý#0 þ E^ . ÿ Bû%ý"A .þ G ú . û"ý#þ CFG Yæ] ý >@*B$@8#9=$* !1>U#d@$#^ !1$* .8Ya\ DA .]C 4+- .10 YJ\ BA .1-4 0 . aY] \écDA .B. ] YJ\/.M0 G)\+.+] H _*ÌH`»ba:µ³'Øq¹Ä=µÅxÅx¶À8Ƽ'Á¹´=º;¹¶Õ%·=È»U³'»;Õ%Eµ c»;·Ô ^ Y=] ðwd;&(t$@R)$*#!"B ql#9: $0 # 7U$#!#&79:)* c)#dz$@edV£1$#nR¢ 9:!# Eg ¢3#¥7Y dU¢¢]U*%$**"' f qú . û"ý#þ YJót#ty+F6]P @ed¢¢7$; ¡6Unq!"U+$'>hF8 ý ôePBvÝV$@: d*&W#w$3`@"d@ty1æP P$@Ld¢¢iw/!#o>øc*/"56 X$@*@!# y1*q&Wôih y ;@7 $!#^ÿ D û%ý#A .þ S# cô . û%ý"þ $*"9:6S+ $@B'$**"$ ô . û"ý#þ Ckôemô . û"ý#þ /#d( *ql3#97o$*!#&=+)$*" !+$7ú . û"ý#þ ;@_$*@o$)$*#!"6U>%$*@`@#d@`ý >"d@$*b *B# _9z!"$#!# $#9:>@6b)$*#!"6>"$@X!"o>>U#d@$* * ; 6 PQ{"!"!#&X !#!t69:!"6 _+ $!# * *)#d ( !>U#d@$;P @^)#9:!#)$S>Uq&R$*8+)a9ü69:!"#d8#)$*O1* 9:!#"d$*@wô >e+ $!#a*9$*@S>U#d@$6 '$*#$*" N4- . YJZ\1B A . ]mo$*@S*!"$#d:ù/ôe. û"ý"þ *S '$*#$* ; #d$B9z!"$#9= !+ #)$*#$#:/*9:$*^ù1ú . û"ý#þ PV¢$;o$*%5+ =69:!"#d7Y 9R"$* dq>byFç>ç j]yq6) !** 9:!#"d(YJóK"Ky F6]t{9:"#9z9ø$*3&R** 9:!#"d=Y[*#* Ky F6] !`/:)6 6 =$*@:nq += Uô . û%ý"þ onw$*@79z!"$#9= !V*;@9:P=¤w!"!O$*@ . û"ý#þ kk ù ú . û"ý#þ Ckôú . û#ý"þ P 69:!"#d:;@9:R3 m[P P < +ô l 9:97 *#yS$@!"d*%$*@9 *6 77k a!#!"o>^Pg $X$@i""$ !w"9:/$* + '$*#$*"W7 m P nEoqpsr8ptvuwpx>tvr?py]o<z jTCFP {1Y |b}/% ~_|Ý:} } l ÿ û%ý"þ m Y Ê] VCFGH#H"H#Gô 4 P. Del Moral, A. Doucet and G.W. Peters For For VCFGH#H"H#Gô , sample . , evaluate the normalized weights úü û#ý"þ Ù ú "û ý#þ 4- ÿ û%ý"þ y úüû"ý#þ mf ÿe û%ý"þ ý CFH Yañ3] }||#}1 ~_|x}W} If ESS 2 Threshold then resample particles ù1ú û#ý"þ Gÿ û"ý#þ to obtain ô new particles ù1ô 0 Gÿe û"ý#þ P r3r?pw jVmjâ:A ,F0H 1{ Y|b/} % _ ~ |Ý}:} For V CFGH#H"H#Gô , sample ÿ . û%ý"þ éc.i ÿ .Mû"ý"0 þ G? . 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Doucet and G.W. Peters :@+qnw5"$wno PO^o>k*9:$@ $Uw 36S$/a*9ü#9:+)$; w* 9:!#"d( <E$RT$*@(l3$+ ):<ãèT<?&i#$* #dX l"!# *&W¡*! zCMé_oPvxT$*@ )$@8#9:+)$; 8>"d@$Ud#n`3& -+Ya\\ [ ]é_Ya]\ [æG\/] C -+Yæ\\ [] H - YJ\1]é YJ\KG\ [ ] - Ya\1] @b#b$// `onb< è`< W 3U$^ 9:"$(5%$*8nq +PV¢3:"{< #U$ :9:$^$y8$bl+6$$@#^;@B$:/a*9E>!"![P bùÁtvªquwÁ # b$@B>@*8éc.c i U k¡! {"3no *#$b )$*"$# - . H¤3n#$b;@Ba M. 0 bd#n`3& Ya\/M. 0 G)\/.] Yæ>=] .M0 OYa\ . G)\ .M0 ]SC -/.8Ya\/M. 0 -/].8écYa.B \/.] a>@;@`$@8#*9:$; !>U#d@$Y ]U#b# + $wf\ . `#d"n`& - . Ya\ 1. 0 ] H Yæ ñ] -+M. 0 YJ\+M. 0 ] @ =¡*!bY[=]^R`d33 ql#9: $#iBYæ]w%U- .M0 M- . 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Ya\KG\\ [ ]XCõ- . Ya]\ []HS¤w:$*@c;@X7#9=/*"!#yb>UX9z)$7a*9z!o$*T)"!# !"$ $#n6P %& ¹³B³'»µ6·»*³'ÅR¿ µÀ8Á%ÕÁ%µe³ æÁÊϼ `Tϼ `»=Í a7Ç ÕÁʼ'»*³)µ¼'¶³'»6½fϼ `ÁÅRº;¹³x³'»;Åxƹ6´·ÅR¼'¹cϼ `(» '[¹6Ƽ'ÁÀµ*Õ )`ÁÀ8ƹ³x¼)µ´º*» Å'µÀ8ÆÕÁ´Ã`·ÁÅݼx³'Áȶ¼'Á¹´hÁ, ´ + ¸U¹6¶º*»*¼`ª -/.1032%½Ï 4145468µ´·Tϼ `»=Æ»*³x¿#»;º*¼zµ6·µÆ¼)µ¼'Á¹6´pÀ8»Ï¼ `¹ ·iÁ7 ´ +aÑtÁ¼x¼8µ´3· Í `»;/Æ `3µ³)·½9Ð 858186Ô 12 P. Del Moral, A. Doucet and G.W. Peters # O$@w)b>@b- . Ck-`a !#!jVPOQf#;'$S9:é . Cáéè#S)!"6$6 :V :d3 # U ¡*!f#no $B #)$*"$#h-VP(vx$@Rn&i+ $! R)y%U:>bB !#=$ 9=$w$@B$*"97!/¡*!, . 0y$@`$@ d¢¢c>!# cn$!"!#&:"6^on$*"9:R >! 3n*dz$Xô Bjîd36 w$*X"5+%$'&P=êwo>ny1#;$yt"$@=, . 0c$B/ 9=$6 8l$!#&RO $@K¡!3);@(SY[> .]f+)6 PKvxz$@fyq** 9: !#"d>"!#!@qnS$ ++)a9:6 :$n$$*@R d*&z$@>"d@$*P{¤ **)6 7*n3#!"&=#cl 9:!# =yo $*R_** 9:!##d`)$>@;@Td#n6w+ $!#B *ql"97 $!#&X #)$*#$6 * "dc$W-Vy %$8 3$B +6 B*&`$`9:¡z$@( $!#"$*;$R 3&39:*PB¢ ã* 9:!#;^>"$@ "$*;$*"d`)$*#!"6($@3Rl+6$6 T$*X+:* !#!#&i)a!V!"&i>@hé÷=] ,oR h U ¡!1 O"3no *#$b )$*"$#X-VP # Bo>$@=(>@=é . 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Connections to previous work and Extensions Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers 13 d3w$X#5"$'&Tn%U69:!"#d`#R$B+)6 P(óK)!"&T/ ¡3#dy1$*@B$@:(/ - . =d$)$#dn*&e!#c$*- 1. 0 ` - ( $7 d;o$` #)$*#$#KPevÝ$==l+6$* @o>Un$@+o$869:!"#d`>"!#!O"9:*on8$*@:no *#( $*@= T$cU *!"_)$#9: $6B i$*@ #8 9:)$;o$* "$@c)#9z!o$*"h$#tP @!"d*%$*@9 >%$*@p69=!"#dW@8!#X+ `"W$@$*l3$ O$*"97 !15+!%$**"d:3&Y[ëB )#!#!K i! ty/ F6]P @#îY[ ]b# ;b$@=)6$ !{bq& X"a*z)>@*7,-/./0z#d#ni3& Y'Fñ]Pêw#:!"d*%$*@9 **+ z$$@X)W>@*`é_.e#7î U ¡!w#no $ '$*#$*" -/. 1. 0 cd#ní3&Yæ =]mæP P %$_cn*&î"9:#!#:$î¤wv)¢ l$7$@ $` 69:!"#d_)$w# !" P¤B #** i6 *!"#6y+#T$*@B** 9:!#"d`#n&Xa!O -+M. 0 + :-+.:c %£1U)#d%5+ $!#&1m^!#cYæëB#!#¡3 7U¥"æy3 F6]faS!#!#&z*!o$* >¡7#W$@R5+!%$**"d7$l$6P ¤Û9:*T*$c>¡ãY[U7 î 6 }: "ò#yBñ]=_ $@`/ !B)TR$@ca; 9:>¡1P @7 $*@;B+) B$*@7@9:d+(>@:- . Cü-VyKé . C é + . C P @# !#d"$@9õ**+ B$X$*@_7>@*cé#z U ø¡!b#3no *# $ )$*"$# -sYa+ 9:!#&iWëB#R* 9:!#]^ + Ya\fG)]\ []^Cø-7YJ]\ [#]P @&i!#_*/$*@=)( _¡! é . Ya\KG\\ [ ]SCáé . 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P P .ç P ç FFP#F6 FqP#F?= =PÊoñ =P F =PÊ PSqñ P ñ F FY oñ Gª%ðqt1r?M«¯ª%§i«8psr8 . F >. . F ë ¢ y\ªÞr8ppwx>t1r8py]o pr5£ ¡ qnd+Pf97 l_!"d:+'$**"U9: FFP j F8= P#F8. Fñ+P >j FñP = F FñP =F '$; P97ol`!"d(/)$#9: P =/. FP ñ1 P = ñ P P 39z/K$#9:*;@ `9: :FñP =F Fñ = ñç . . ¦¢t1§YtvuuwMu oÞoqMtvupwo§¥£§YíqoÞ« qnd+Pf97 l_!"d:+'$**"U9: FFPÊ. F FqP ñ Fñ+P"F©. FñPÊj FñP =F '$; P97ol`!"d(/)$#9: FP ñF FP ñ= P j>j P = ñ P 39z/K$#9:*;@ `9: :FñP =F j F?j ñ/j ñç . !#1FOa*97 wO"9(!o$6 `6 !#"d7 W¢ kon#. ="9(!# $# qnd+Pf97 l_!"d:+'$**"U9: '$; P97ol`!"d(/)$#9: 39(+^ f$#9:*;@ _9= Fñ+P =F ~¨ 3.2. 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Peters -+.RYç1Gf D A N G¶ DA ] I+.A» ?Y ç1G#f BA N Go¶ BA x D A þ 5ß ¼k½ ] Ù I+A. » Y BA þ ß¼ ½ ç1Gf DA N G¶ D A ]oI+.» Yç1Gf B A N G¶ BA ] >@*rºzü#8_$#9::"$no!O 56 3&i$*@:6P @6): '$*#$* "8 *( 56 h< C H I ,8ç/0ÞèmJ >@*¾J CÀ¿e¶ BA â m*L 27¶ 2 HHvH 2,¶ Á èwY ONw] N yq$* @b )+)$O -/.8/#d 6 _$=$@$ ¿ ¶6BA â» m*+ 2,¶6¢ 2HHvH 27¶ 2îij º( Á èpwY ONw] N P @##8X*!"9Û>@*=$@739(+8 b¡3o>R89:$*@"di&p X$¡o>8P 9:!"za9 = S$@6): '$*#$*"ytW)$* + ; T ;@T>U!# T'$R S+)#dX`å n*"!"! :9:p U ã!"d*%$*@9 YæëB*tyFç/ç .]PRg:*/z@*z$*X* 9:!#=")$6 Ta9 $@()68 '$*#$*"^#d_¢ * 9:!#;PU¤U$;@W$#9=('$*ty+>z #d_ 9:%l3$R {a^ %£1*$^9:on6P @V5;'$t9:onO'$; 3 $K #d^ 3&$@#d+m6[P Pfé_. Ü × WY ç1#G f B A N G ¶ B A ]G × ç1[[G f\[D A 9 N oG ¶vB [ A 9 Ý8Ý C O 8Ü Ã U:V ÄÅU Ü ´ U:V Ä × ç1[æGf\[B A  N Go¶vD [ A 9Â Ý )=$*@8"+*9:$*!>"d@$bbd#n`3& -+. × ç1[J#G f¿[B A 9 N G ¶vB [ A Â Ý H Y=] -/M. 0 × ç [ G f [B A  N oG ¶ B [ A Â Ý ëB"npwY ç1#G f/B A N oG ¶6B A ]y3$@ `9:onR#=#$@X9:on é . Ü × wY ç1#G f/B A N oG ¶6B A ]1G × ç [ G f [B A  N oG ¶ D [ A  Ý?Ý C O N Ü Ã U:V ÄÅU Ü ´ U:V Ä × ç [ #G f [B A  N G ¶ D [ A  Ý?Æ . × Y f1B A N oG ¶6B A ]G × f [ N oG ¶ [ N >@*V$*@U/ 6 9:+ $ ×f [ oG ¶ [ ÝSf* 9:!# ; "db$w*/* ! )$*"$# Æ .RY)ÇY f B A G ¶ D A ]t-G Ê]PVvx`$@)y"$^b N + "N !"$79:$7Y[]U c$*@R"+*9:$*!1>"d@$ $@Xd#nW3& -/. × ç1[æG f\[B A  N oG ¶vD [ A  N Ý H Y =F6] -+M. 0 WY ç1G f D A N G ¶ D A ] Æ . × ÇY f B A N oG ¶ B A ]1#G f [ N G ¶ [ N Ý vÝ$z8)&$T6'$; !##@h$@ $$@_*/* ! Æ . 9:"#9:"¥"dT$@cno *#: b$*@#z"+*9:$*! >"d@$yd#nY f/B A N oG ¶6B A ]y#bd"nW& - . × f [ N oG ¶ [ N k ç â FG f1D A N ooG ¶6B A Ý k C I/. » × ¶ [ N k B A þ ß¼k½ ¸G ç â F#G f B A N oG ¶ B A Ý I/. » × f [ N k D A þ ß5¼k½ BG ç â FG f B A N G ¶ B A N Ý k C k vÝ$T#i %ìc!%$T$*k9=!"pa*9 $*@i$*"97!z '$*#$*" "9:/*)#!#p$k9=$p$*@ *)# $ s"9:/$*e>U#d@$P @*a*yR>Ue*/p*ql"97o$*" ($*@T '$*" $*"tP Q{#*)È $ ¶v[ #W* 9:!# a*9 e$* $ ál+$*#!B )$*"$#sMÚ ¶ G)jiº(]P ¢3 tyb$î* 9: N!#Éf N )#d#a97o$*"a9 $*@T)no $#yb>)$"$$Tac$*@ Ý8Ý Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers 19 $*T!#"¡!#"@ $*@T!#"¡!#"@3 >@;@k>! +$; # ">)T$@9z/_$; "#$**no !X :!"d $*@º(äX+)6 á$* *h$*"9:P gh $@ ql#9: $ I . » 71Y f N ÝB A þ ß ¼k½ GBç â FG#f/BA N Go¶6BA N ]U&`cëR 9:97= #)$*"$#tP ëB"nkYwç â FG#f BA N G¶ BA N ]yt$*@7$*@"; p9:on:i $@p9:on:>@7>U7*/($*i 9:one¡3$hY f Ê N oG ¶5Ê]` 9:de$@K N 9:'$W6$_¡3$*_$í$; # × çv[J#G f¿[ G ¶v[ Ý C wY ç1#G f B A N 1, f¡Ê N 0SoG ¶ D A N , ¶1Ê/0q]P gh* 9:!#Ì Ë ÎÍ Y'8, çLÌN â FGHHHÊH ç/0q]:B A  N ; "D dA  $*î "a*9÷ #)$*"$#tPMvxk$@Wy>U á9:$ Yæ]7 $@*!%$*"d"+*9:$*! "9:/$*R>U#d@$#bd"nW& -+. × ç1[J#G f¿[BA  N G ¶vB[ A Â Ý H Y =] -+M. 0 × ç [ G f [D A  N G ¶ B [ A Â Ý N 0 Qf#!"!#&$*@Xa$@k !#'$79:onXch@#d@$_Y ¡''$*9:$c9:onX>@*X>i9: "a&$*@ **$nq!" X#$+)"$'&`+ ; 9:$*#X$@*$w'$$*c$* # × çv[J#G f¿[B A  N G ¶vD [ A Â Ý Pbgh 9:!"ÌË ÏÍ Yx,8ç+ÌN â FGHHHHÊç/0q]=$*@$*@T>è"$%$'&Gf [Ê N * "dh$* $ *"!#"$'& '$*#$*">"$@í/$cÐ, f Ê N ´ ÒÑ O G f Ê ´ Y Ñ#íFq] O GH"H#H#G f Ê â Ñ O 0yV>@È Ñ O *+6"5 _3&:$@B6P @B **$*/* !1N #)$*#$# ÓAÓBaS$*N @B"$%$'&:$*(/ © ¡'+'$* `#d"nW3& Æ . × f Ê N G f [Ê N Ý Ùá- . × ç1G f1B A N ? U1, f Ê N o0G f [Ê N oG ¶6B A Ý _$@86)!"$#d:#*9:$; !#9=/$*R>U#d@$"diY[]d#n`3& -+. × ç1#G f B A 1, f¡Ê 0G f\[Ê oG ¶ D A Ý ý Æ Y f¡Ê N G f¡Ê N ÇY Ñ#£ â F6] O ]3-+ M. N 0 WY ç1G f N D A N 5, N f¡Ê N 0S #G f Ê N Y Ñb5 â Fq] O G ¶ B A ] HøY =/=] @l**"Y =]f$cwY =>=]faV$*@"9:/$*>U#d@$*S 8 $#!" $@9:onO*#!"" $#P @w)#9z!# $#V>U**:)#dzR"$@7*+ #!""$'& . Ü Y ç]Õ C Ô9:#G FG ÃÖ ª G8 $@ } C Ô9=# FG ª yS@#d@$:© ¡')$C 9:$= #!#%$'& . N CèH#8F .i *"!#"$'& . Ü Y ç]7Î Ü× ÃÖ 5!"!#&z$*@wC #!#%$'&= t$S9:on3"dz>US!#$* c;@:$*@o$$@ "!#%$*"6C S9 $`} FP @ '$; $ Ôø>Ub)!"6$6 _! *dBU/*)#!#+ b$*@B)$; #$$*@o$ . Ü Y ç] â . Ü wY ç ] Ø H /.P @b*"!#"$#V*/ R$*B$@b$**9: . Ü B +6 *"d#iYæ jC ]HP w"d$*@C l*) )#`Yæ/ ]t>"$@ E . Ü C . Ü "z$@{l 9:!#Uon3 C z9:$*o$*" !3*qn#dK + z*o$)J$**& 6)!%$;)=> # WB $C B*ql"97o$*w$*@8$#9:! E . Ü B d#nW#pY[ ]P gi !"&$@7 !#d"$@9 $*$*@X+! 7 !b9:""de $*h)$76)$#d !b9:# '$*;^/$'>Uî?F /.Fz + eF/ç jP @=n;"i V$@= $*`)$wa T#íY[ëBtyOFç/ç .]b>U Pkê^o>Un6yV$@T !"&#:*# $7>U=ac *)$;=*97 !#"¥ î&:*!"P g= !)_"9:!#9:$8_M å : U !#d*"$@9 TTl$*!"&`$@:* 9:()$* $'$*# !{9= !K$* 9:!"a9?$*@z/)$#w #)$*"$#Td"nX$*@z>@!"( o$;$P @z9:on6$#!## i#i$*@ Må : U !"d*%$*@9 >B "d 7$=+8"9:#!#S$*z$*@+)6 c#YæëB*tyFç/ç .]P @B) )/%5+ T+ ; 9:$*;^ >` ºzMCEFz& 6G f · C?©F hoñ\G mCMç h¡G ¸h C =h y N Cøñ?G Ñ=Cøñ+G á C Ê H z L ¹ s C # H F P @ R 3 z 9 / b K $ # ! U c a U $ @ 8 ¢ k " ( 9 ! o$#`>UôÛC > . O >@#!"$@RM å : U !"d*%$*@9 )6 ` 8* 9:!#>%$*@_$*@5*)$b* 9:!#U ; ab$*@ir)W"+u=)$*dP g: )!q&W"hQf#d`F8$@:9=3$@6 i)$#97o$( $*@z#@9:db FO#*X"$*%$'& $; # h#dW$@`¢ ü !#d*"$@9Ûn;)+B$@76'$*"97o$* p#dTM å : U P @c9:3 $@ HÌ `ÁÅ^Ƴ'¹Æ¹6Å'µÕf·ÁÅݼx³'Áȶ¼'Á¹6´Xºµ´WÈ»RÁ´o¼'»*³'Ƴ'»*¼'»·_µÅwµz³)µ´3·¹À æVµÕCØ æÁÊϼ `X·ÁÅxº*³'»*¼'»8Á´º*³'»*À8»;´o¼'Åbȶ¼ ϼ `Ù1Ù»bÀµ³'ÃÁ%´µÕ+·ÁÅݼx³'Áȶ¼'Á%¹´:¹¿/ϼ `»bƵ³x¼'Áº;Õ»;ÅSÅݼ'Á%Õ\Õ `3µÅSµBÅx¶Æƹ³x¼º;¹Äq»*³'Á´/Ã Ú cÛ ¢ h6'$*"97 $U6)$ #O<ÜfY¨)]t BA þ ß¼k½ ÅMUÝ ¼k½ Þ y @U"$OO "£/${a*9åM: U p>@#;@ R$*@_>@!"` o$;i)$PTQ/ $@$@` ¢ !#d"$@9 h$*@_åM: U ü!"d*%$*@9Û$*@ )$#97o$6, ß=>Ù*(!"#6(`!"$)$* PpghW!#T#9=!"9=$ í !#d*"$@9 e$*@ 9:$@3 !#d&(*$6 :"`@#Yæ]O $6 =$8$*@$**'x #9:" !+m[P P{>U^ Må : U á9=onaéc.` `)6 pYæ =]P @86)!"$*^>R$^; d"d+POg8/!#"nR$*@ 6Xaw$*@#>bw$@ $$*@= #**&W/$'>UT$'>W)6"nz '$*#$*"RT+=@#d@ "W$*@#P)6$!#&y$*@8£1$#n* 9:!#R#¥R $*i */ `$:n*&c!"o> no !#PS ;@z!"!#o>^f$@O$*R9= "a&$*@b!"o$#+O ++ $!#O#(!#"d@$ $*@>î+)noo$*" +a*R>"d@$*"dz$*@9XPVvxX^#9z!o$*"U$@! dU¢¢_n>U$+!"o>P =ôeP 20 P. Del Moral, A. Doucet and G.W. Peters 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 à Fig. 1. Bottom: Coal mining disaster data, 1851-1962: occurrences of disasters, Solid line: RJMCMC estimate of the intensity, Dashed lines: RJMCMC estimate 3 standard deviation, Star: SMC estimate of the intensity, Dotted lines: SMC estimate 3 standard deviation. à 4. Conclusion vx$*@ $!#yt>U7@qn(*$* hW!#R9:$*@ R$*X* 9:!#:a*9 )$*"$#R¡3o> $iW*97 !#"¥"dX)$* $ + 56 hX9:9=hP @6):9:$*@ *= /i¢ s !#d*"$@97P @ba; 9:>U*¡:# ;l#!"8 _n*&cd; ![P{vxW+ $! 6y3%$^&3#! )#9:!#b)$;o$*d"6K$*R9:¡b*!"!#! U eO"$*;$6y + (!#> !#d*"$@97f$R/a*9 d!#!$#9:"¥6o$*"í:$ !bq& e#a*Pk¢3#9z!o$*": 9:+'$** $`$@ $=$*@ )$c R9:$@3 7#c+$$*#!"!#&î/o>)a!æPsêwo>nyS$@Ti)$#!"!wn; !#9:+)$; $7/ 9:$@3 !#d! _$@*$*# !*!#97U$*:)$+ &P Q*9E(9=$@ !"d!+/#$Ufn3">8y3%$>U! c/#9:+)$; $U$7 n!#cìc#$Ud 9:$@3 8$T*ql"97o$*=$@c$#97 !Sl"!# *&T¡!#7, . 0c6)/#!"!#&Ta!# $$no !# 9:3 !PfvxR$@U)#*%$Ko$*@9=!"#dzY[ëB!#9: 8 Td+y F6ç/ç ]y%${>! B!#^/#$**)$#d $X$* #h$@7$#97 !+o$@/zad#d`a9õ h)&T$T* 9:!#: #)$*"$#p- $*T`5l ¦¦ áUƼ'ÁÀµÕÁ´(ϼ `»bÅx»;´Åx»^ÁʼÀ8Á´ÁÀ8*Á â;»;ÅOϼ `»bÄ6µ³'Á%µ´º*»¹¿Ï¼ `»UÁ%À8ƹ³x¼)µ´º;7 » æO»;Á?à ` ¼'Å;Ô Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers 21 $*d${ #)$*"$#(- Ck-VP{Q{# !#!#&yoa{w5l (9:$*o$*" !9:!#l%$'&yq$@U{^$; [£ +$'>=$@9z/1+ $!#Vôè ($*@^!#d$@RI7 *PV!#!#&"+$*@^¡!U,6é . 0w * 9:%l#d:>!"![y>U)@! cJqn@$+b>%$*@i9:3&c $!#b>@*b"{$@&_9:%lX)!#o>!#& >=)@! T@qnz!#dBw>"$@h!#*w)$*#!"6Pêwo>ny/%$R>U! T/(S#$**)$$*W n3# $"$* $#n89:)6PQ{"+ !#!"&ya*9è:$@*$*# !K/#$w Vn3#>8y/%$B>!# X/"$6'$$* >6 ¡c$*@*9:$#b#pYJð!f T; ! Xð$6y / =]P 5. Acknowledgments @$@;_ *Td* $a!^$î$@"X!"!#d67ac$@#W9:9:$*P @&k !)>U!# k!##¡ $;¡3o>!"6 d=$*@c*n3">*Ba$*@#(9:9:$*z>@#;@!"!#o> 8$*)#d%5+ $!#&h"9:*on $@+ /6P @` e$@zd* $a!$T$@» d%F¢åM + p$@`vx)$"$$*_ w¢$;o$*#)$! To$*@97 $y ¡&y : _ab$@"^/$P 6. Appendix ¦¨§YyÁy\ïy]令§Yy¿ª<y\«8psr8py]o¬]U @Bl6#Y)FFq]a!"!#o>^a9 $@ !"$*=9:$*@ PVd l**)# Y'Fq]/a!"!#o>^a*9w3n#$K*>*%$*"dw $@Sno *#Sl**)#86'$; !##@6 R"WYJð!3 i; ![y ñmB)6$*"áçP ñytP = o:=>j]mw !)sYÝ@"tyB ñmw$@*9 F6]:a`s !"$ $#n *#nq $#tPOgh $@*B$@8 $* $#W S@"pYæ ñ3]P @8no * bd#n`3& . Ù Û à+á½Ü . wY V]Cs<Mã U Ü ^ ä Ô A . Y 5h<#" ß YV]*] Þ â <b" Ä X U Ä Ü ^ ä N BA . Y 5h<b" ß YwO]*] Þ Y =ñ] >@* ä . N BA .BYO ]CU y ä N BA . YwV ]SC ä N cå¢--Ðå ä . YwV] ä .RYV]Yæ\+.M0 ]SCá< ß û > ßYX U Üæ þ Ú ^ .RYJ\/.M0 G)ÿ7.]1W YJÿ7.]ÝÜ ^ . YÏ#G-Ê]K 56 8"cYw ]P @l**)#7Y=ñ]1K %ìc!%$f$^#$**$6PKvÝ$KK3n"$!#& >@* 6 **d6 :@*P @B¡&cb$*= $R$*@o$ ä . Y V]tYJ\ .M0 ] < C C C C ß û > ßYX U Ü æ þ Ú ^ . Ya\ .M0 G)ÿ . ]1W Yaÿ . ]'Ü & éc.BYa\/.M0 G)\/.] - .M-+0.8OYJ\+YJ\ ..M] 0 .M]0 é . Ya\+Ya.t\ .1G)\+0 .1q0 G\ ]. ] `Yæ\+.]Z\/. F YJ\+.]3-/.RYJ\/.] .M0 Ya\/.G)\/.M0 ]Z\+.1H -+.M0 Ya\/.M0 ] &ã` -4 . Ya\ .10 ] &ã` -+.M0 Ya\/.M0 ] YJ\+.]1-/4 .RY\/.tx\+.10 ]Z\/. 22 P. Del Moral, A. Doucet and G.W. 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