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Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1e13
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Quaternary Science Reviews
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quascirev
OF
Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable
isotope record in the northeastern United States
Cheng Zhao a, *, Zicheng Yu a, Emi Ito b, Yan Zhao c
a
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, 18015, USA
Limnological Research Center, Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Minnesota, 310 Pillsbury Drive SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA
c
MOE Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental System, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
RO
b
a b s t r a c t
Article history:
Received 6 April 2009
Received in revised form
1 March 2010
Accepted 31 March 2010
Earlier studies indicated that the general pattern of the Holocene climate in the northeastern United
States changed from cool and dry (11.6e8.2 ka; 1 ka ¼ 1000 cal yr BP) to warm and wet (8.2e5.4 ka) to
warm and dry (5.4e3 ka) to cool and wet (after 3 ka). A new w35-year resolution stable isotope record of
endogenic calcite from a sediment core for Lake Grinnell in northern New Jersey provided a chance to
examine the Holocene climate variations of the region in a finer detail. After the Younger Dryas cold
climate reversal, the d18O fluctuated around a constant value of 7.4& until 5.8 ka, thereafter shifted to
a steadily decreasing trend to the most recent value of 8.2&. Responding to this shift, the widely
observed hemlock decline in the northeastern USA occurred about w350e500 (143.5) years later.
Detrended d18O and d13C records show a clear covariance at 910-year periodicity. The amplitudes of
centennial-scale d18O variations became much smaller after 4.7 ka. At the same time, the dominant
frequency of these variations changed from 330 to 500 years. We suggest that a non-linear response of
atmospheric circulation to the gradual decrease in insolation is responsible for the shift in the climate
trend at 5.8 ka as indicated by the deceasing d18O values. A dominant frequency shift in solar forcing and
the decreased seasonal contrast of insolation might have caused the change in climate variability at
4.7 ka through modulating ocean and atmosphere circulations.
Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
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a r t i c l e i n f o
Stable isotopes from lacustrine carbonate can be a useful tool for
reconstructing long-term climate changes and investigating
possible causes and mechanisms of these climate changes. In the
northeastern United States, many efforts have been made to
reconstruct the Holocene climate history from lake sediments,
including lithologically derived lake-level reconstructions (e.g.
Dwyer et al., 1996; Mullins, 1998; Newby et al., 2000; Shuman et al.,
2004; Dieffenbacher-Krall and Nurse, 2005), pollen-inferred vegetation changes (e.g. Davis,1969; Watts, 1979; Davis et al.,1980; Suter,
1985; Maenza-Gmelch, 1997; Shuman et al., 2001), as well as stable
isotope records (e.g. Anderson et al., 1997; Huang et al., 2002; Kirby
et al., 2002; Ellis et al., 2004; Hou et al., 2006, 2007). This Holocene
climate history includes a cool and dry period at 11.6e8.2 ka
(1 ka ¼ 1000 cal year BP), a warm and wet climate at 8.2e5.4 ka,
a warm and dry interval at 5.4e3 ka, and a cool and wet condition
during the past 3 ka (Shuman et al., 2004). Superimposed on this
general trend, a series of millennial-, centennial- and multidecadal-
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* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: chz8@lehigh.edu (C. Zhao).
scale climate oscillations have been reported (e.g. Kirby et al., 2002;
Cronin et al., 2005; Viau et al., 2006; Li et al., 2007; Springer et al.,
2008). In addition, the mid-Holocene was a period of large climate
change. For examples, many lakes in eastern North America experienced a low lake-level from 5 to 3 ka (e.g. Dwyer et al., 1996; Yu
et al., 1997; Newby et al., 2000; Lavoie and Richard, 2000;
Almquist et al., 2001; Mullins and Halfman, 2001; Shuman et al.,
2001, 2004; Dieffenbacher-Krall and Nurse, 2005), which has been
attributed to broad-scale changes in atmosphere circulation (e.g. Yu
et al., 1997; Kirby et al., 2002). In response to the dry climate, an
abrupt decline of the hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) around 5.5 ka has
been documented from pollen data across eastern North America (e.
g. Allison et al., 1986; Foster and Zebryk, 1993; Fuller, 1998; Bennett
and Fuller, 2002; Foster et al., 2006) and the decline has recently
been suggested to be caused by increased aridity (e.g. Yu et al., 1997;
Shuman et al., 2004; Foster et al., 2006). However, there are only
a few stable isotope records with temporal resolution sufficient for
reconstructing the multidecadal- to centennial-scale Holocene
climate history (e.g. Kirby et al., 2002) and examining the possible
mechanisms of climate changes.
In this paper, we present an w35-year-resolution calcite stable
isotope record of a marl sediment core collected from a small,
0277-3791/$ e see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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C. Zhao et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1e13
hydrologically open hardwater lake in northern New Jersey, USA.
The objectives of this study are to reconstruct a detailed climate
history covering the last w12,000 years with a special focus on the
nature of the proposed mid-Holocene climate shift and to identify
and understand the possible forcing factors and how the climate
system responded to those forcings.
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Lake Grinnell (41060 N, 74 380 W, 170 m above sea level) is
located in Sussex County in northern New Jersey (Fig. 1A). The lake
sits in a limestone terrain and is situated in the Kittatinny Valley of
the Ridge and Valley physiographic province, which is underlain
by northeast-trending folded and faulted blocks of dolostone,
limestone, slate and siltstone (Witte and Monteverde, 2006). The
Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated from this area around 14,000 years
ago (Witte, 2001). The regional climate has been strongly affected
by the moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and tropical Atlantic Ocean
(Lawrence et al., 1982; Peixoto and Oort, 1983). Based on the
instrumental data (1895e2006) from New Jersey Climate Division 1
(northern New Jersey) (http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cirs),
the regional mean annual temperature is 10.4 C with an average
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2. Study region and site
summer (JuneeAugust) temperature of 21.5 C and an average
winter (DecembereFebruary) temperature of 1.1 C (Fig. 2A). The
mean annual precipitation is 1177 mm with almost uniform
monthly distribution (Fig. 2A). The average of monthly weighted
mean precipitation d18O values (collected from 5 stations in the
Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), including Ste.
Agathe, Quebec; Ottawa, Ontario; Simcoe, Ontario; Coshocton,
Ohio; and Chicago, Illinois (http://isohis.iaea.org/userupdate/
GNIPMonthly.xls)) in eastern North America (see locations in
Fig. 1A) shows a high correlation with the mean monthly temperature in northern New Jersey (Fig. 2A)
Lake Grinnell is a small hardwater lake of w0.2 km2 in surface
area (Fig. 1B) and w7 km2 in catchment area. It has two basins
separated by a ridge where water is <3 m deep. The lake has a short
mean residence time of w80 days and is mostly recharged by
shallow groundwater and perhaps precipitation on the catchment
basin (Laura Nicholson, personal communication). The water depth
in the basins was raised about 2.4 m artificially by a dam to form the
present impoundment area, with a maximum water depth of about
10.4 m. The date of the first dam construction is not well known
except that it occurred before 1913 (Valgenti et al., 1950). Lake
Grinnell is the headwater lake of a branch of Wallkill River, which
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Fig. 1. Location and settings. (A) Map showing the location of our study site Lake Grinnell (red square) in northern New Jersey. Other locations (black dots): 1, Queechy Lake, New
York; 2, Green Lake, New York; 3, Inglesby Lake, Ontario; 4, Crawford Lake, Ontario; and 5, Pretty Lake, Indiana. Also shown the locations of five stations in the Global Network of
Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP) in eastern North America (blue triangles): a, Ste. Agathe, Quebec; b, Ottawa, Ontario; c, Simcoe, Ontario; d, Coshocton, Ohio; and e, Chicago, Illinois.
(B) Air photo of the Lake Grinnell area. White dot represents the coring location of core GL05-1. White squares indicate the locations of water samples collected: a, Lake center;
b, Boat deck; c, Travis’ and Naby’s wells; d, Sincaglia’s well; e, Lake outlet (see Table 1 for detail). The water depth contours are in meters. (C) Core photo of core GL05-1. The first
drive is from 660 to 760 cm below the lake surface, and the last drive (Drive 9) is from 1460 to 1560 cm.
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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C. Zhao et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1e13
monitoring around White Lake from fall 1992 through spring 1994
showed that water table responded quickly to precipitation events,
suggesting local recharge of shallow aquifer located in the limestone (Nicholson, 1995). Given the high permeability of limestone
aquifers and hardwater composition of the lake, the hydrologic
budget of the lake likely includes significant groundwater component as well as surface inflow.
3. Methods
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Water samples at 50 cm water depth from different locations in
Lake Grinnell (Fig. 1B) were collected mostly from 2006 to 2008
(Table 1). Several domestic wells around the lake were sampled in
2006 and 2008 by first pumping out about 1.5 L of water before
collecting in 500 ml bottles. One shallow well (Travis’ well) was
sampled in both years. Samples for hydrogen and oxygen isotopes
were sealed in 20 ml high density polyethylene plastic bottles with
scintillation caps right after collection. Samples for dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) were filtered through a 0.45-micron filter paper
and ‘poisoned’ by adding two drops of CuSO4 solution to kill
organisms and sealed in Amber DIC glass bottles. All water and DIC
samples were sent to the University of Arizona Isotope Lab for
dDwater and d18Owater and d13CDIC analyses. Isotope values are
reported in conventional d notation relative to VSMOW (Vienna
Standard Mean Ocean Water) for water dD and d18O, and VPDB
(Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite) for DIC d13C. The analytical precisions
are 0.09& for d18O, 0.9& for dD, and 0.3& for d13C.
The 900-cm long sediment core (GL05-1; Fig. 1C) was taken on
30 January 2005 from near the center of the lake (see Fig. 1B for
coring location) at 660 cm water depth with a Livingstone-Wright
piston corer of 5 cm inside diameter. Sub-samples were taken
directly from the core at every 2 cm, and then homogenized for
loss-on-ignition (LOI), stable isotope and pollen analyses. LOI
analysis was carried out to estimate organic matter content based
on weight loss from combustion at 550 C about 1 h and carbonate
content at 1000 C about 1 h (Dean, 1974). Terrestrial plant
macrofossils and charcoals were picked from seven intervals and
dated using an accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) at the
University of California, Irvine (Table 2). All the 14C dates were
calibrated to calendar ages using CALIB 5.01 program based on the
IntCal04 dataset (Reimer et al., 2004). The age model is derived
from a fourth-polynomial curve with a fixed surface age (55 cal
year BP ¼2005 AD; Fig. 3A).
Samples for calcite stable isotope analyses were air-dried at
room temperature. Plant macrofossils, mollusk and ostracode
shells, and other macroscopic fragments were removed and discarded under a stereo-microscope. Each of the 334 calcite samples
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Fig. 2. Regional climate and water isotope data. (A) Mean monthly temperature and
precipitation between 1895 and 2006 from New Jersey Climate Division 1 (northern
New Jersey), showing a large seasonal temperature change but almost uniform
monthly precipitation. The monthly averages of weighted precipitation d18O values
from the five GNIP stations (average of 5 stations) in eastern North America. (B) Stable
isotope values of lake water and nearby wells at Lake Grinnell from different seasons,
plotting close to the global meteoric water line (GMWL; dD¼8d18O þ 10). The annual
weighted mean precipitation isotope data from 5 GNIP stations in eastern North
America were also included.
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flows northeastward to Hudson River. The water chemistry
measurements made in 2002 show a pH of 8.9, an electrical
conductivity of 503.6 mS/cm, and total dissolved solids of 0.4 g/L.
The alkalinity of the lake water was 0.15 g/L in 1950 (Valgenti et al.,
1950). The lake bottom is almost completely covered with musk
grass Chara, an aquatic multicelluar algae that is common in
hardwater lakes (Valgenti et al., 1950).
Due to its location within the Kittatinny Valley, the narrow low
ridges on either side of Lake Grinnell are about 30e40 m higher
than the lake surface in elevation. White Lake (Sussex County,
Fig. 1B), about 500 m to the southwest of Lake Grinnell, is about 7 m
higher in its lake surface elevation. There is no channel connecting
White Lake to Lake Grinnell today but surface or groundwater
connection between the two lakes is possible. Groundwater table
Table 1
Water isotope measurements from and around Lake Grinnell, New Jersey.a
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Sample ID
Collection date (month/year)
dD (&, VSMOW)
d18O (&, VSMOW)
020623C
060211D
060618a
060618b
061010a
12302006
080517A
080517B
080908C
080908D
060618c
060618d
080517C
080908A
06/2002
02/2006
06/2006
06/2006
10/2006
12/2006
05/2008
05/2008
09/2008
09/2008
06/2006
06/2006
05/2008
09/2008
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5.2
7.9
6.8
6.9
7.3
7.7
7.0
7.0
5.9
5.9
8.1
8.2
8.2
8.2
a
b
d13C of DIC (&, VPDB)
8.5
7.3
7.1
12.0
Sampling locationb
Boat deck
Boat deck
Boat deck
Lake center
Lake outlet
Lake outlet
Lake outlet
Boat deck
Boat deck
Lake outlet
Travis’ well (w1.5 m)
Naby’s well (w1.5 m)
Sincaglia’s well (w30 m)
Travis’ well (w1.5 m)
The analytical precisions are 0.09& for d18O, 0.9& for dD, and 0.3& for d13C as reported from the University of Arizona Isotope Lab.
See Fig. 1B for sampling location.
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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C. Zhao et al. / Quaternary Science Reviews xxx (2010) 1e13
Table 2
Radiocarbon (14C) dates from Lake Grinnell, New Jersey.
Depth (cm, below
lake surface)
AMS lab IDa
14
C date error
(yr BP)
Median age
(cal BP 2s range)b
Materials dated
720e724
762e764
898e902
1022e1024
1150e1154
1242e1244
19482
16918
19483
16915
16914
16919
1330 30
1430 15
3495 15
5340 20
7625 30
9475 20
1265.5 36.5
1324 24
3769 63
6082.5 80.5
8417 41
10715.5 59.5
1278e1282
16921
9870 45
11,283 80
2 Larix needles, 1 Cyperaceae seed, plant macrofossils and charcoals
7 woody scales from Abies or Picea, plant macrofossils
plant macrofossils and charcoals
1 Scirpus seed, 1 woody scale, plant macrofossils and charcoals
1 woody scale, plant macrofossils and charcoals
1 Pinus seed wing, 4 Pinus needles, 5 pieces Pinus seed fragments
and plant macrofossils
8 Pinus needles, plant macrofossils
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using the program AnalySeries (version 2.0.4), and calculated the
rates of changes (expressed as 100 D(d18O)/Dt) between each
adjacent pair of raw measurements. The raw d18O and d13C data
were fitted and detrended with a 3rd order-polynomial curve using
the program AutoSignal (version 1.0) to remove the long-term
trend. In order to evaluate the potential solar forcing on the
centennial-scale climate variability and to highlight these centennial-scale variations recorded in d18O time series, we also
performed spectral analysis using the program REDFIT (Schulz and
Mudelsee, 2002) using a Hanning window and band-pass filters in
the detrended d18O and raw residual D14C time series (Reimer et al.,
2004). The program AnalySeries was also used to perform crossspectral analysis of the detrended d18O and d13C time series in order
to evaluate their coherence, and to apply a band-pass filter (at
910 80 year periodicity) to show their corresponding changes at
millennial-scale.
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was analyzed for oxygen and carbon isotopes in the Stable Isotope
Laboratory at the University of Minnesota using a Finnigan MAT
252 isotope ratio mass spectrometer coupled to a Kiel P carbonate
preparation device. All results are reported in standard d notation
relative to VPDB. The analytical precision is 0.06& for both d18O
and d13C. To evaluate the regional vegetation response to climate
changes, pollen analysis was done on 0.7 cm3 sub-samples at every
8-cm interval (Zhao et al., in press). The samples were prepared
using a modified standard acetolysis procedure (see details in Zhao
et al., in press).
The computer program RAMPFIT (Mudelsee, 2000) was used to
analyze raw d18O data to objectively detect the shift in the longterm trend. In order to visualize and evaluate the magnitude of
centennial-scale variability of the d18O time series, we obtained the
deviations of raw d18O values from the RAMPFIT trend, filtered the
raw d18O time series after applying a 200e500 year band-pass filter
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Sample lab ID for Keck-Carbon Cycle AMS facility at the University of California, Irvine.
Calibrated ages for radiocarbon dates were obtained based on the IntCal04 dataset using CALIB 5.01 (Reimer et al., 2004).
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Fig. 3. Results from core GL05-1 at Lake Grinnell, New Jersey. (A) Age model based on seven calibrated 14C dates using a fourth-polynomial curve. (B) Organic matter content (%,
dotted curve) and carbonate content (%, solid curve) from LOI analysis. (C) d18O values from calcite. (D) d13C values from calcite.
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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5. Discussion
5.1. Interpretation of calcite stable isotopes at Lake Grinnell
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The water isotope values of the lake and surrounding wells are
within the range of amount-weighted isotope values in annual
precipitation from the five GNIP stations in eastern North America
(Fig. 1A) (http://isohis.iaea.org/userupdate/GNIPMonthly.xls). Also,
these water samples scatter around the global meteoric water line
(GMWL, Fig. 2B). The lake water DIC d13C values are higher (average
7.6&) than the groundwater d13C value of 12& (Table 1).
The 900-cm long core has about 230 cm clay sediment at the
bottom (1560e1330 cm below the lake surface). The rest of the core
is mostly marl (1330e670 cm), except for 10 cm of organic-rich
gyttja at the very top of the core (670e660 cm; Fig. 1C). This study
focuses only on the marl section. The marl contains >90% carbonate
and w6% organic matter (Fig. 3B). The seven calibrated 14C dates
from the core GL05-1 are all in order. The chronology indicates
the marl section covers the last 12500 calibrated years (Fig. 3A). The
accumulation rate of the marl is almost constant throughout the
core at w0.54 mm/year based on the age model.
The d18O values range from 8.9& to 6.7&, with centennialscale fluctuations (Fig. 3C). A major negative excursion at
12.5e11.3 ka reached a minimum of 8.9&. After 11.3 ka, the d18O
values fluctuate around a constant value of 7.40.4& until 5.8 ka,
thereafter steadily decreasing to most recent value of 8.2&
(Fig. 4A), which suggests an equilibrium precipitation of calcite
from present-day lake water. The high d18O values of about 6.7 to
6.8& occur at 11.1, 10.2, 9.5, 6e5.7 and 4.8 ka. The d18O deviations
from RAMPFIT data show w0.7& variations before and <0.5&
variations after 4.7 ka (Fig. 4B). The smoothed time series after
a 200e500 year band-pass filter also show w0.2 to 0.3& variations
before and w0.1& variations after 4.7 ka (Fig. 4C). The D(d18O)/Dt
results indicate highest rates of changes around 4.7 ka (Fig. 4D).
In addition, spectral analysis of the detrended d18O data shows
a 500-year periodicity above 95% confidence level (CL) after 4.7 ka
(Fig. 5C) and a 330-year periodicity above 95% CL before 4.7 ka
(Fig. 5D).
The d13C values range from 9.0& to 4.2& (Fig. 3D). A major
positive excursion between 12.5 and 11.3 ka reached 6& at
w11.7 ka. The d13C values were steady around 7.4& between 11.3
and 9 ka and thereafter steadily increased to 4.5& at 8.5 ka
(Fig. 3D). From 8.2 to 5.5 ka, d13C values averaged 6.0 0.4&.
From 5.5 to 4.7 ka, d13C increases from 6 to 5& with little
fluctuation, followed by a decreasing trend to 7& at 3.5 ka. From
3 ka to the present, d13C values remained nearly constant at
5.0 1&. The cross-spectral analysis of the detrended d18O and
d13C values (Fig. 6A, B) shows highest coherency at w0.8 (Fig. 6C)
and in-phase (w0 ) relationship (Fig. 6D) at the 910-year periodicity (although both curves have a very weak correlation, with an R
value of w0.05), which is also supported by the covariance of the
smoothed detrended d18O and d13C time series after applying
a 910 80 year band-pass filter (Fig. 6E).
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Changes in calcite d18O values obtained at Lake Grinnell likely
reflect changes in climate conditions in northern New Jersey, rather
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Fig. 4. Time series analyses of calcite d18O time series from Lake Grinnell, New Jersey. (A) Raw d18O values with RAMPFIT line to show change in the long-term trend. (B) d18O
deviations from long-term fitted RAMPFIT line (detrended record). (C) Smoothed curve of raw d18O time series after a 200e500 year band-pass filter to show low-frequency
components. (D) The rate of change (100 D(d18O)/Dt) based on raw d18O time series.
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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Fig. 5. Spectral analyses of the detrended d18O time series (by a third-polynomial curve) at Lake Grinnell and raw residual D14C time series (data from Reimer et al., 2004). (A)
Spectral power of residual D14C after 4.7 ka. (B) Spectral power of residual D14C before 4.7 ka. (C) Spectral power of detrended d18O after 4.7 ka. (D) Spectral power of detrended d18O
before 4.7 ka. The legends of spectral power, spectral background and different confidence levels (CL) were also indicated.
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than a local hydrogeological behavior for the following reasons: (1)
the lake has a very short-residence time of about 80 days. Thus, the
lake water would be quickly replaced by inflowing ground and
surface water. (2) Groundwater table monitoring around White
Lake (Sussex County), 500 m south of Lake Grinnell within the
same valley, from fall 1992 to spring 1994 showed that the water
table responded quickly to precipitation events (Nicholson, 1995).
(3) Chara encrustations (see details below), the calcite materials
that we used for d18O analyses, mostly precipitate from late spring
to summer. Thus they only capture the summer water and climatic
signal. (4) Our measurements of summer lake water show higher
d18O values when comparing to well water and winter lake water
(Fig. 2B, Table 1), suggesting that precipitation contributes significantly to the lake water during summers. Therefore, we argue that
calcite d18O values at Lake Grinnell likely reflect the summer
conditions in the region.
The fine-grained calcite that we analyzed is comprised of mostly
disintegrated Chara encrustations as well as some endogenic
calcite. Chara uses dissolved CO2 from the lake water for photosynthesis, which is facilitated significantly by Chara calcification
(McConnaughey, 1991; McConnaughey and Falk, 1991), inducing
calcite precipitation as a result. The d18O values of Chara encrustations have been documented to be close to the expected equilibrium values (Coletta et al., 2001; Ito, 2002). Our stable isotope
measurements of Lake Grinnell water are consistent with prior
results. At our study region, the average warm season (Maye
September) temperature between 2006 and 2008 is about 21 C,
with a maximum mean monthly temperature of w27 C and
a minimum temperature of w15 C. The temperature of Chara
photosynthetic activity is probably close to the average warm
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season temperature, considering the high heat capacity of water
assuming that the groundwater inflow mixes quickly with the lake
water. For an average temperature of 21 C and average warm
season d18Owater values of 6.6& (VSMOW) (see Table 1), the
calculated d18Ocalcite at equilibrium is 8.1& (VPDB) using the
fractionation equation published in Leng and Marshall (2004) as
modified from Kim and O’Neil (1997). The uppermost d18Ocalcite
value from the core is 8.2& (VPDB), which is very close to the
calculated value of 8.1&.
The d18O values of calcite in isotopic equilibrium reflect isotopic
composition and temperature of the lake water during calcite
precipitation. The water in Lake Grinnell is derived from groundwater and precipitation, with groundwater table responding
quickly to precipitation events suggesting a relatively shallow
aquifer and local recharge (see details in Section 2). The d18O values
of meteoric precipitation are controlled by moisture sources and air
temperature. Evaporative enrichment can also increase the lake
water d18O values. The lake/groundwater isotope values and
regional precipitation isotopic compositions fall on the GMWL
(Fig. 2B), suggesting that this short-residence time lake has
a minimal evaporation (Leng and Marshall, 2004 and references
therein). Therefore, it is unlikely that the changes in precipitation/
evaporation ratio control the d18Ocalcite signal. Changes in the
moisture source of precipitation could also influence the d18O
values of lake water. For example, Burnett et al. (2004) investigated
the moisture sources of winter precipitation in New York state and
concluded that the lake-effect precipitation had a much lower d18O
values (17.9&) than the moisture originating in the Gulf of Mexico
and in the nearby Atlantic Ocean (8.2&). However, the averaged
d18O values of annual precipitation in northern New Jersey is about
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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Fig. 6. Covariance of the detrended d18O and d13C time series from Lake Grinnell. (A) Detrended d18O time series by its third-polynomial fitting curve. (B) Detrended d13C time series
by its third-polynomial fitting curve. (C) The spectral coherence between the detrended d18O and d13C time series. (D) The phase relationship between the detrended d18O and d13C
time series. (E) Smoothed curves of detrended d18O (solid) and d13C time series (dashed) after a 910 80 year band-pass filter.
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8& (Bowen and Wilkinson, 2002). The shortest distance from the
Laurentide Great Lakes (Lake Erie) to Lake Grinnell is w300 km and
they are separated by the Allegheny Mountains which could act as
a sufficient orographic barrier against any lake-effect precipitation
from reaching northern New Jersey. Thus the major moisture source
in northern New Jersey is more likely from the Gulf of Mexico and
tropical Atlantic Ocean (Lawrence et al., 1982; Peixoto and Oort,
1983). Changes in lake water temperature of this small, shortresident-time lake likely follow the air temperature. Hence changes
in air temperature are the most likely cause of changes in d18O
values of Chara encrustations at Lake Grinnell. As the average of
monthly weighted mean precipitation d18O values in eastern North
America show a close correlation with the monthly air temperature
in northern New Jersey (Fig. 2A). The annual weighted mean
precipitation d18O values and air temperatures (http://isohis.iaea.
org/userupdate/GNIP2001yearly.xls) from the five GNIP stations
(Fig. 1A) are also correlated (d18Oprecipitation ¼ 0.7 Tair 14.9;
R2 ¼ 0.70) for the period 1962e2001. Considering both the positive
relationship between meteoric water d18O and air temperature at
0.7 & per C in eastern North America, and the negative relationship with water temperature during calcite precipitation at 0.24
& per C (Craig, 1965), we can use a simple carbonate d18O-air
temperature relation of 0.46 & per C as a first approximation to
estimate air temperature changes.
The d13C values of Chara encrustation depend mainly on local
factors, particularly the d13C values of DIC in lake waters (Ito, 2002).
The d13C of lake water DIC could be influenced by the atmospherelake exchange of CO2, the DIC isotope composition of groundwater
inflow, the decomposed or respired organic matter input into the
lake water, and especially the photosynthetic activity by Chara
(McKenzie, 1985; Cole et al., 1994; Ito, 2002; Leng and Marshall,
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2004). The d13C values were unlikely influenced by interaction
with atmospheric CO2 because of the lake’s small size, short water
residence time and the relatively constant atmospheric CO2
concentration during the Holocene (with a range of about 25 ppmv;
Indermühle et al., 1999). The groundwater DIC d13C value of 12&
(Table 1) reflects about equal contributions from both limestone
bedrock (w0&) and C3 plants in this region (from about 32 to
20&, Leng and Marshall, 2004 and references therein). The
decomposed and respired organic matter could decrease the DIC
d13C value of lake water by releasing 12C from organic matter. Chara
will increase the d13C of the DIC by preferentially incorporating 12C
in photosynthesis (McConnaughey et al., 1997). The lake water DIC
d13C values range from 7 to 8.5& (Table 1), which are higher
than that of groundwater DIC, likely to be the result of extensive
photosynthetic activity by Chara that covers the lake floor.
5.2. Holocene climate history inferred from calcite isotope records
The negative excursion of w1.5 & in d18O at 12.511.3 ka
represents a 3e4 C cooling in air temperature, corresponding to
the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event (e.g. Cwynar and Levesque,
1995; Shuman et al., 2002; Yu, 2007). The 3e4 C temperature
decrease during the YD inferred at Lake Grinnell is comparable to
other temperature records in the northeastern United States,
including a similar cooling inferred from pollen records in New
Jersey and Connecticut (Peteet et al., 1993), the w5 C cooling
derived from d18O values in carbonate at White Lake (Warren
County), New Jersey (Yu, 2007), the 5.6 C cooling at Blood Pond in
Massachusetts (Hou et al., 2007), and the more than 5 C cooling
at Crooked Pond in Massachusetts (Huang et al., 2002) estimated
from dD values in palmitic acid. This cold period was locally
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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haven’t been well documented in other paleotemperature records
in the northeastern United States. Some of the IRD events have been
documented by the moisture reconstructions for the past 7000
years from this region (Li et al., 2007; Springer et al., 2008). Thus,
we suggest that the IRD events in North Atlantic Ocean only have
influences on the moisture condition rather than the temperature
in the northeastern United States.
5.3. Climate shift in the mid-Holocene
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The d18O value shift at mid-Holocene seems to be a regional
signal and has been revealed by other d18O records from lake
sediment carbonate in eastern North America (Fig. 7). In New York,
the d18O values from Queechy Lake (Stuiver, 1970) and Green Lake
(Kirby et al., 2002) show a negative shift around 6e5 ka. In
southern Ontario, the d18O values from Crawford Lake (Yu et al.,
1997) and Inglesby Lake (Edwards and Fritz, 1988) also show
a negative shift around 5 ka. Similar negative shift was recorded in
the d18O values from Pretty Lake in Indiana (Stuiver, 1968).
Although the rate and specific timing of the shift are different from
site to site, all these shifts seem to imply a consistent climate
transition in eastern North America during the mid-Holocene. In
addition, a mid-Holocene decrease in dD values was found from
Crooked Pond in Massachusetts (Huang et al., 2002). We suggest
that the transition is likely caused by the same climate driver and
occurred at same time considering the poor dating and coarse
resolution for some of these published records.
The d18O deviations to the RAMPFIT output (Fig. 4B), the
smoothed time series by the band-pass filter (Fig. 4C), and spectral
analysis results of d18O data (Fig. 5C, D) indicate that the isotopic
record of Lake Grinnell had higher frequency and larger amplitude
variations during the early to mid-Holocene (before 4.7 ka) than
the late Holocene (after 4.7 ka; Figs. 4, 5). The change in the
amplitude and/or frequency of climate variability during the
Holocene has been reported in paleoclimate archives in North
America. For example, temperature reconstructions from pollen
data in eastern North America showed that the amplitude of
millennial-scale oscillations has been decreasing during the Holocene (Viau et al., 2006). Similarly, a clear change in variability (both
amplitude and frequency) at 5 ka was shown in the sea surface
temperature (SST) data obtained from the subpolar North Atlantic
(Berner et al., 2008). Decreased amplitude of millennial-scale
oscillations since the mid-Holocene in the western Canada was also
suggested by a model of climate fluctuations extended back to 15 ka
based on a 4000 year paleoclimate record in conjunction with the
Milankovitch cycle (Campbell et al., 1998). In addition, the rate of
d18O changes (Fig. 4D) indicated that the most rapid climate variations happened in the mid-Holocene around 4.7 ka.
The mid-Holocene hemlock decline was thought to be a rapid
vegetation response to climate change (Yu et al., 1997; Shuman
et al., 2004; Foster et al., 2006). Close examination of the difference in the timing of the shift in d18O and the decline in hemlock
pollen (Zhao et al., in press) at Lake Grinnell (both pollen and
isotope data from the same samples) (Fig. 8), indicates there is
a delay between the hemlock decline and the of climate change.
The climate shift occurred at 5.8 ka (at 1014 cm below the lake
surface), while the hemlock decline started between w5.45 and
5.3 ka (at 988e996 cm below the lake surface). We have radiocarbon ages from above and below the hemlock decline. The dating
error for both ages yields a maximum error of 143.5 year (also see
Table 2). The age difference between the d18O shift and hemlock
decline, based on our age-depth model, indicates the hemlock
decline lagged w350e500 (143.5) years behind the climate shift.
Similar age difference is obtained if we use linear interpolation to
construct the age model. If the mid-Holocene hemlock decline was
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characterized by increased abundance of boreal taxa such as Pinus,
Picea, Betula, and Alnus (Zhao et al., in press). The positive excursion
of w3& in d13C at YD may reflect the decreased decomposition and
respiration rate of organic matter in the cold climate. The timing of
the YD event recorded at Lake Grinnell is 400e500 years younger
than other regional records (e.g., Shuman et al., 2002), probably due
to the age extrapolation in our age model from the oldest dating
control in the early Holocene.
From 11.3 to 5.8 ka, d18O values remain relatively high around
7.4&. For the period before 9 ka, other climate reconstructions
from eastern North America show a cool but gradually increasing
temperature (Suter, 1985; Anderson et al., 1997; Huang et al., 2002;
Viau et al., 2006) and a dry climate (e.g. Dwyer et al., 1996; Newby
et al., 2000; Lavoie and Richard, 2000; Almquist et al., 2001;
Shuman et al., 2001, 2004; Dieffenbacher-Krall and Nurse, 2005).
The cool temperatures would have caused lower precipitation d18O
values to Lake Grinnell region, but the dry climate might cause
higher lake water d18O values due to longer water residence time
leading to stronger evaporation effect than present. This interval
was also characterized by a vegetation transition from a pine forest
to an oak forest, and a decline of hemlock (Zhao et al., in press),
consistent with reduced moisture availability. The low d13C values
at 11.3e9 ka could be caused by the less limestone contributions to
the groundwater DIC induced by reduced groundwater recharge
under a dry climate.
A warm early to mid-Holocene climate indicated by the stable
d18O values from 9 to 5.8 ka is in agreement with many studies in
the northeastern United States and around the North Atlantic
region (e.g. Stuiver, 1970; Davis et al., 1980; Suter, 1985; Huang
et al., 2002; Ellis et al., 2004; McFadden et al., 2004; Hou et al.,
2006). At Crooked Pond in Massachusetts, dD values indicated an
annual temperature rise by 3e7 C between 8.2 and 5.4 ka (Huang
et al., 2002). Similar magnitude temperature rise was also reconstructed from the pollen-inferred January mean temperature at
Winneconnet Pond in Massachusetts (Suter, 1985). At Lake Grinnell,
this period was also characterized by the stabilization of oak forest,
with a high hemlock population (Zhao et al., in press). The relatively
high and stable d13C values could reflect the high photosynthesis
activity by Chara.
Starting at 5.8 ka, d18O values shifted from a stable state to
a gradual and steady decreasing trend reflecting a w2 C cooling
since the mid-Holocene if this shift were controlled by temperature
alone. A dry climate between 5 and 3 ka was reported from most
lake sediment records in eastern North America (e.g. Dwyer et al.,
1996; Mullins, 1998; Yu et al., 1997; Newby et al., 2000; Lavoie
and Richard, 2000; Almquist et al., 2001; Mullins and Halfman,
2001; Shuman et al., 2001, 2004; Dieffenbacher-Krall and Nurse,
2005). This dry interval corresponds with a period of low d13C
values centered at 3.5 ka from Lake Grinnell, again indicating less
limestone contributions to the groundwater DIC under the dry
climate similar to the situation at 11.3e9 ka.
The carbon-oxygen isotopic covariance at 910-year periodicity
(Fig. 6E) likely reflects the positive controls of air temperature on
both d13C and d18O values in temperate lakes, as suggested by
Drummond et al. (1995). Higher mean annual temperature will
cause higher precipitation d18O values, which in turn leads to
higher d18O of groundwater discharging into Lake Grinnell.
Assuming plenty of sunlight is available, the rate of photosynthesis
increases with temperature so that residual DIC becomes enriched
in 13C. The lack of such a covariance at shorter timescales might be
caused by the more complex and localized factors controlling the
carbonate d13C values.
Our data don’t show distinct climate change around 8.2 ka or
other millennial-scale ice-rafted debris (IRD) events as documented
in the North Atlantic (Bond et al., 2001). Also those IRD events
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Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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Fig. 7. Regional d18O records from lake sediments in eastern North America: (A) Lake Grinnell, New Jersey, with RAMPFIT line; (B) Queechy Lake, New York (Stuiver, 1970); (C) Green
Lake, New York (Kirby et al., 2002); (D) Crawford Lake, Ontario (Yu et al., 1997); (E) Inglesby Lake, Ontario (Edwards and Fritz, 1988); and (F) Pretty Lake, Indiana (Stuiver, 1968).
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really caused by climate change, our data suggest that the decline
took w350e500 years to respond. The w350e500 year lag is
similar to the suggestion from other sites that the hemlock decline
occurred >300 years after climate change (Shuman et al., 2009).
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5.4. Possible causes of Holocene climate trend, variability and shift
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Changes in insolation have been previously considered as
driving long-term climate trends in the northeastern United States
(Kirby et al., 2002) (Fig. 9A, B, and C). The presence of the remaining
Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS; Fig. 9A) also affects the climate system.
For example, the cool and dry early Holocene was probably caused
by the effect of cold glacial anticyclone circulation from the
remaining LIS (COHMAP, 1988). The glacial anticyclone creates an
anomalous north-northeasterly flow on the south-east of the ice
sheet (Kutzbach et al., 1998; Webb et al., 1998). Thus, cloudiness
and precipitation south of the ice sheet were suppressed (Felzer
et al., 1996; Webb et al., 1998). This mechanism would be responsible for the cool and dry early Holocene condition in the northeastern United States (Shuman and Donnelly, 2006). An analysis of
spatial and temporal expression of early Holocene climate around
the North Atlantic region shows that locations close to LIS experienced maximum Holocene temperatures that lagged peak summer
insolation about 1000e3000 years (Kaplan and Wolfe, 2006). In
addition, reconstructed SSTs along the northwestern Atlantic slope
waters show a cool early Holocene close to the LIS but a warm early
Holocene farther south (Sachs, 2007). After the retreat of LIS,
insolation became the dominant control (Fig. 9A).
The mid-Holocene climate shift at 5.8 ka recorded at Lake
Grinnell (Fig. 9D) likely reflect a non-linear response to the gradual
decrease of insolation within the climate system. General circulation models (GCM) have shown that subtle changes in insolation,
aided with the positive feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean, sea
ice, and vegetation, could produce significant climate responses
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(e.g. Foley et al., 1994; Ganopolski et al., 1998; Claussen et al., 1999;
Kerwin et al., 1999). As summarized by Steig (1999) and Sandweiss
et al. (1999), the mid-Holocene climate shift has been documented
in various paleoclimate records and in cultural changes at global
scale. In addition, the fastest rate of annual insolation decline
(Fig. 9C) could promote a more unstable climate during the midHolocene through rapidly changing thermal gradient at different
latitudes. The insolation decrease could cause a significant atmosphere circulation change in eastern North America. Several
mechanisms of the atmosphere circulation change have been
proposed for the decreased precipitation d18O values observed in
eastern North America (Fig. 7), including the more frequent intrusions of dry Pacific air mass with low d18O values (Yu et al., 1997),
the increased cold season precipitation (Denniston et al., 1999;
Shuman and Donnelly, 2006), and the higher altitude of the
moisture condensation elevated by the cooler and drier western air
(Smith and Hollander, 1999). The contribution of Pacific air mass is
unlikely the cause of the d18O shift at Lake Grinnell because it can
bring very little moisture even into the continental interior region
like Iowa (Simpkins, 1995). In the case of the latter two mechanisms, the average air temperature would be lower at Lake Grinnell
region and thus decrease the d18O values.
The frequency of centennial-scale climate oscillations recorded
in Lake Grinnell sediment is possibly caused by a change in dominant frequency of solar variations. The results of spectral analysis
show that the 330-year periodicity was significant before 4.7 ka, but
the 500-year periodicity was significant after 4.7 ka in both d18O and
D14C time series (Fig. 5). In order to better show the relationship of
these two curves at the dominant frequencies, we smoothed both
time series after applying a 330 (30)-year band-pass filter before
4.7 ka and a 500 (50)-year filter after 4.7 ka on both the detrended
d18O and raw residual D14C time series. Both filtered curves seem to
show corresponding variations, especially after 6 ka (Fig. 9E). The
poor correlation in some intervals during the early Holocene may be
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Fig. 8. Timing of mid-Holocene climate shift and hemlock decline. (A) Age model with two dating points adjacent to the hemlock decline. Dating error is indicated by the error bars,
with age models based on the fourth-polynomial curve used in this paper (solid) and on a linear interpolation (dashed). (B) The d18O values from Lake Grinnell with RAMPFIT line.
The gray band shows the climate shift point. (C) Hemlock pollen percentage from the same core as isotope data at Lake Grinnell (Zhao et al., in press). The gray band indicates the
hemlock decline between two pollen samples.
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Fig. 9. Regional climate records and climate controls. (A) Annual insolation at 40 N (Berger and Loutre, 1991) and change in Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) areas compared to full glacial
period (gray area). Half-way point of insolation changes is indicated by the dashed line. (B) Summer (solid) and winter (dashed) insolation at 40 N (Berger and Loutre, 1991). Halfway point of summer insolation changes is indicated by the dashed line. (C) The rate of change in annual insolation per 1000 year (kyr) at 40 N. The gray bar indicated the most
rapid decrease in annual insolation. (D) The d18O values from Lake Grinnell with RAMPFIT line. The seven calibrated 14C dates and errors are indicated on the left. (E) Smoothed
curves of detrended d18O (solid curve) and raw residual D14C time series (dashed curve; Reimer et al., 2004) after a 330 30 year band-pass filter before 4.7 ka and a 500 50 year
band-pass filter after 4.7 ka.
Please cite this article in press as: Zhao, C., et al., Holocene climate trend, variability, and shift documented by lacustrine stable isotope...,
Quaternary Science Reviews (2010), doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.03.018
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Acknowledgements
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We thank Robert Moeller, Yongxiang Li, Long Li and EES 357
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Spring 2005 class at Lehigh University for field coring assistance,
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John Naby and his neighbors around Lake Grinnell for water
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sampling assistance, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful
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comments that improved the manuscript. This project was
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supported by American Chemical Society e Petroleum Research
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Fund (#42418-AC2) and US NSF (EAR 0518774) to Z.C. Yu. This is
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Contribution 09-22 of the Limnological Research Center of the
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University of Minnesota.
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Anderson, W.T., Mullins, H.T., Ito, E., 1997. Stable isotope record from Seneca Lake,
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weakening ocean and atmosphere circulations. The fast decline
in annual insolation would also facilitate the amplitude of
centennial-scale climate variability during the mid-Holocene.
4. Our record from Lake Grinnell supports the notion that
a gradual change in climate forcing could trigger an shift in the
climate system. Also, changes in mean climate states are likely
associated with changes in climate variability, in terms of both
magnitude and frequency. This implies that a continued global
warming may induce changes in climate variability (including
climate extremes), especially if the climate system crosses
a threshold into a new mean state.
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caused by the relatively larger dating errors at Lake Grinnell. Small
solar output variations would be amplified in the climate system
through several mechanisms, including the changes of ozone
production and stratospheric temperature structure caused by
changes in ultraviolet part of solar spectrum (Haigh, 1994; Shindell
et al., 1999), the changes in cosmic ray intensity on cloud formation
and precipitation (van Geel et al., 1999), the changes in global-scale
atmosphere circulation (Rind and Overpeck, 1994), and the changes
of sea ice and the North Atlantic deep water formation (Chapman
and Shackleton, 2000; Bond et al., 2001). Solar-forced centennialscale climate oscillations have also been widely hypothesized in
North America, for example, in the northern Great Plains (Yu and Ito,
1999), in the midcontinent (Tian et al., 2006), in the southwestern
United States (Asmerom et al., 2007), and in the sub-arctic Alaska
(Hu et al., 2003).
The solar forcing alone may not fully explain the mid-Holocene
shift in centennial-scale climate oscillations as the amplitude of
solar variations does not match the amplitude of the climate
variability (Fig. 9E). The observed amplitude shift of the centennialscale climate oscillations was possibly caused by seasonality
changes in insolation. For example, the contrast between summer
and winter insolation was larger during the early to mid-Holocene
than during the late Holocene (Fig. 9B). The strong seasonality
could cause intense internal oscillations in the oceanic and possibly
atmospheric circulations during the early to mid-Holocene, as
shown in the North Atlantic region (Schulz and Paul, 2002; Berner
et al., 2008) and in western Canada (Campbell et al., 1998). In
addition, the most rapid decrease in annual insolation during the
mid-Holocene might further facilitate climate oscillations (Fig. 9C).
Consequently, the early to mid-Holocene centennial-scale climate
variability was not only at higher frequency but also at higher
amplitude than the late Holocene, especially with the highest
amplitude during the mid-Holocene.
6. Conclusions and implication
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1. The isotopic record at Lake Grinnell provides a detailed climate
history and landscape changes from the late-glacial to Holocene
for the northeastern United States. The negative excursion of
w1.5 & in d18O values at approximate 12.5e11.3 ka represents
a regional expression of the Younger Dryas cold event. The d18O
data show a high and stable mean value of about 7.4& during
the early to mid-Holocene from 11.3 to 5.8 ka and a negative
shift to a steady decreasing trend from 7.4& to 8.2& after
5.8 ka. The carbon-oxygen isotope covariance at 910-year periodicity likely reflects the controls of air temperature on both
d18O and d13C values in temperate lakes at millennial timescale.
2. The general Holocene climate trend recorded at Lake Grinnell
was dominantly controlled by the insolation. The remaining
Laurentide Ice Sheet would be responsible for the cool and dry
climate from 11.3 to 9 ka in eastern North America, as also
shown in other regional records. The 5.8 ka climate shift in the
long-term trend recorded at Lake Grinnell likely indicates a nonlinear response of atmosphere circulation to a gradual decline of
insolation during the mid-Holocene, as also documented in
other regional isotope records. Responding to this climate shift,
the hemlock declined in the northeastern United States, but
lagged w350e500 (143.5) years behind the climate shift.
3. The mid-Holocene shift in climate variability at centennialscale at 4.7 ka was detected not only in the periodicity shift
from 330 years to 500 years, but also in the decrease in the
amplitude. The increased periodicity at 4.7 ka was likely
controlled by the dominant frequency shift in variations of solar
output. The reduced amplitude at 4.7 ka was possibly caused by
the decrease in seasonal insolation contrast and accompanying
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