Peanut Cost and Returns Outlook for 2017 January 26, 2017 Nathan B. Smith, Ph.D. Extension Professor and Economist 2017 Budgeting Considerations • Yield Expectation • Two down years in SC, • US down in 2016. Weather vs Rotation effects on yield? • Fuel prices down but may ease up during the year. • Fertilizer prices down in 2017 • Seed prices? Budgeted an increase. • Updated machinery size and prices • Updated chemical inputs 2017 Peanut Cost Analysis Practice Yield Dryland 3000 lb Irrigated 4000 lb Per Acre Per Ton Per Acre Per Ton Variable Costs Fixed Costs Management Total Costs $684 $155 $48 $887 $456 $104 $32 $591 $771 $197 $33 $1077 $386 $126 $27 $539 Price $500 $500 Breakeven Yield lb/ac Variable Costs 2821 3192 Breakeven Yield lb/ac Total Costs 3789 4660 PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF SOUTH CAROLINA CROP ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES, 2017 NON-IRRIGATED Conservation Tillage Cotton 750 lbs $0.72 /lb $540 Peanuts Corn 3,000 lbs 120 bu $500 /ton $4.25 /bu $750 $510 Soybeans 35 bu $10.00 /bu $350 Grain Sorghum 80 bu $4.04 /bu $323 $514 RETURN ABOVE VARIABLE COST per ACRE$26 BREAKEVEN PRICE (Variable Cost) $0.69 /lb $684 $448 $66 $62 $456 /ton $3.73 /bu $335 $15 $9.57 /bu $300 $23 $3.75 /bu $158 $493 -$143 $170 $470 -$147 $14.09 /bu 49 bu $5.88 /bu 116 bu EXPECTED YIELD per ACRE EXPECTED SEASON AVG PRICE GROSS RETURN per ACRE TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS per ACRE TOTAL SPECIFIED FIXED COSTS per ACRE $224 TOTAL COST EXCL. MGT per ACRE RETURN TO MGT per ACRE BREAKEVEN PRICE (Total Costs) BREAKEVEN YIELD per ACRE $738 -$198 $0.98 /lb 1025 lbs $203 $887 -$137 $140 $588 -$78 $591 /ton $4.90 /bu 3,548 lbs 138 bu PRELIMINARY SUMMARY OF SOUTH CAROLINA CROP ENTERPRISE ESTIMATES, 2017 IRRIGATED Conservation Tillage EXPECTED YIELD per ACRE EXPECTED SEASON AVG PRICE GROSS RETURN per ACRE TOTAL VARIABLE COSTS per ACRE RETURN ABOVE VARIABLE COST per ACRE BREAKEVEN PRICE (Variable Cost) TOTAL SPECIFIED FIXED COSTS per ACRE TOTAL COST EXCL. MGT per ACRE RETURN TO MGT per ACRE BREAKEVEN PRICE (Total Costs) BREAKEVEN YIELD per ACRE Cotton 1,000 lbs $0.72 /lb $720 Peanuts 4,000 lbs $500 /ton $1,000 Corn 200 bu $4.25 /bu $850 Soybeans 55 bu $10.00 /bu $550 $580 $771 $660 $430 $140 $0.58 /lb $229 $386 /ton $190 $3.30 /bu $120 $7.82 /bu $332 $912 -$192 $307 $1,078 -$78 $285 $945 -$95 $258 $688 -$138 $0.91 /lb 1,267 lbs $539 /ton 4,312 lbs $4.73 /bu 222 bu $12.51 /bu 69 bu Corn vs Peanut Corn Price Needed to Give Equal Returns Above Variable Costs to Peanuts at Budgeted Yields * $7.00 $6.50 $5.50 $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.41 $3.66 $3.78 $3.91 $4.03 $4.16 $4.28 $4.41 $4.53 $4.66 $4.78 $4.91 $5.03 $5.16 Non Irrigated Corn $2.50 $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 $480 $470 $430 $460 Irrigated Corn $2.00 $450 $3.00 $3.53 $440 Corn Price ($/bu) $6.00 Peanut Price ($/ton) * The above chart is based on the following assumptions: 1) Irrigated corn is compared to irrigated peanut and non-irrigated corn is compared to non-irrigated peanut. 2) Irrigated corn yield is 160 bu. and irrigated peanut yield is 4000 lbs. 3) Non-irrigated corn yield is 120 bu. and non-irrigated peanut yield is 3000 lbs. 4) Prices shown are those needed to cover budgeted operating costs for conventional till production listed in the crop comparison tool. Cotton vs. Peanut Cotton Price Needed to Give Equal Returns Above Variable Costs to Peanuts at Budgeted Yields * $1.00 $0.95 Cotton Price ($/lb) $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 $0.60 $0.63 $0.65 $0.67 $0.69 $0.71 $0.73 $0.75 $0.77 $0.79 $0.81 $0.83 $0.85 $0.87 $0.89 $0.91 Non Irrigated Cotton $0.55 Irrigated Cotton $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 $480 $470 $460 $450 $440 $430 $0.50 Peanut Price ($/ton) * The above chart is based on the following assumptions: 1) Irrigated cotton is compared to irrigated peanut and non-irrigated cotton is compared to non-irrigated peanut. 2) Irrigated cotton yield is 1000 lbs. and irrigated peanut yield is 4000 lbs. 3) Non-irrigated cotton yield is 750 lbs. and non-irrigated peanut yield is 3000 lbs. 4) Prices shown are those needed to cover budgeted operating costs for conventional till production listed in the crop comparison tool. Soybean vs. Peanut Soybean Price Needed to Give Equal Returns Above Variable Costs to Peanuts at Budgeted Yields * $16.00 Soybean Price ($/bu) $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $8.46 $6.00 $8.89 $9.31 $9.74 $10.17 $10.60 $11.03 $11.46 $11.89 $12.31 $12.74 $13.17 $13.60 $14.03 $14.46 Non Irrigated Soybean Irrigated Soybean $570 $560 $550 $540 $530 $520 $510 $500 $490 $480 $470 $460 $450 $440 $430 $4.00 Peanut Price ($/ton) * The above chart is based on the following assumptions: 1) Irrigated soybean is compared to irrigated peanut and non-irrigated soybean is compared to non-irrigated peanut. 2) Irrigated soybean yield is 55 bu. and irrigated peanut yield is 4000 lbs. 3) Non-irrigated soybean yield is 35 bu. and non-irrigated peanut yield is 3000 lbs. 4) Prices shown are those needed to cover budgeted operating costs for conventional till production listed in the crop comparison tool. Crop Insurance Prices 2014 2015 2016 2017 Proj* Corn $4.49 $3.68 $3.81 $3.87 Cotton $0.78 $0.63 $0.62 $0.71 Grain Sorghum $4.38 $3.64 $3.75 $3.80 Peanut, Runner $532.00 $416.20 $407.80 $395 Peanut, Virginia $532.00 $482.80 $493.40 $439 Soybean $11.19 $8.66 $8.91 *2017 as off 1/25/17, South Carolina (Feb 28 Closing Date) $10.28 South Carolina Major Row Crops Planted Acres* (1,000 Acres) 2011 Corn 360 Cotton 303 Peanuts 77 Soybeans 370 Tobacco (harvested) 15.5 Wheat 190 Total 1316 2012 330 299 110 380 12 235 1366 2013 350 258 81 320 14.5 280 1304 Compiled by Nathan Smith, Clemson Extension Economist, Source: NASS USDA, QuickStats *January 12, 2017 USDA NASS Annual Crop Production 2014 295 280 112 450 15.8 230 1383 2015 295 235 112 475 13 170 1300 2016 375 190 110 420 13 60 1168 2017 Expectations 2017 • Corn acres switch over to soybeans. • Cotton Acres up, 5%10%. • Peanut up some. • Soybean acres expected to increase. • Spring wheat down CORN COTTON GRN. SORGHUM PEANUT SOYBEAN WHEAT Thank You Nathan Smith nathan5@clemson.edu Sandhill Research and Education Center 803-788-5700 (o) 229-392-3948 (m)
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