Fact Sheet AARP Public Policy Institute The Employment Situation, July 2013: Unemployment Drop for Older Workers Does Not Translate into Employment Gain 1 Sara E. Rix AARP Public Policy Institute The unemployment rate for the workforce aged 55 and older fell to 5.0 percent in July from 5.3 percent in June. Women accounted for this decline; the unemployment rate for older men showed a slight tick upward. Nearly 1.66 million people aged 55 and older were unemployed in July; that figure is 120,000 fewer than in June and more than 300,000 fewer than the previous July. Employment growth did not keep up with population growth in the older population. The proportion of older people with jobs has remained virtually unchanged since the first of the year. The average duration of unemployment for older jobseekers, which had fallen in June, rose slightly in July to 49 weeks. Employment and Unemployment 2 Nonfarm payroll employment, as reported by establishments, rose by an estimated 162,000 in July. 3 Despite steady growth for the past 3 years, employment in July still was about 2 million below what it was at the start of the Great Recession in December 2007 (figure 1). The overall unemployment rate fell from 7.6 percent to 7.4 percent between June and July. The rate also declined for the older workforce—from 5.3 percent to 5.0 percent (figure 2). Differences by sex were evident in the older unemployment rate, which ticked up slightly for men (from 5.5 percent to 5.6 percent) but fell for women (from 5.4 percent to 4.9 percent). 4 The labor force participation rate for older Americans was also somewhat lower (40.3 percent in July vs. 40.5 percent in June). Compared to June, an additional 351,000 older adults were out of the labor force. Almost 1.66 million older people were unemployed in July, about 120,000 fewer than in June and more than 300,000 fewer than a year earlier. The number of older employed workers rose by 95,000, but the older population rose even more (by 206,000). Consequently, the proportion with jobs (employment-to-population ratio) did not improve, remaining at 38.3 percent (table 1), where it was at the beginning of the year. Duration of Unemployment Average duration of unemployment for jobseekers aged 55 and older fell in June but rose slightly in July—from 48.2 weeks to 49 weeks (figure 3). 5 Jobseekers under age 55 had been unemployed for an average of 32.9 weeks in July, up from 31.8 weeks the month before (table 2). The Employment Situation, July 2013: Unemployment Drop for Older Workers Does Not Translate into Employment Gain Figure 1 Nonfarm Payroll Employment, December 2007–July 2013* (seasonally adjusted; number in thousands) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm employment from the Current Employment Statistics Survey (National) at http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm. *Aged 16+; figures for June 2013 and July 2013 are preliminary. for economic reasons (i.e., because of slack working conditions or because they could not find full-time work) in July was up slightly from June’s 4.6 percent and substantially higher than it was at the start of the recession (2.4 percent). 6 In July, women were more likely than men to be involuntary part-time workers (5.8 percent vs. 4.2 percent, respectively). As of July, 47.3 percent of older jobseekers were long-term unemployed—that is, they had been out of work and looking for a job for 27 weeks or more. This figure is virtually unchanged from June. Other Employment Indicators At 4.9 percent, the proportion of older employed working part time Figure 2 Unemployment Rates by Age, July 2012, June 2013, and July 2013* Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey at http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln. *Rates are seasonally adjusted. 2 The Employment Situation, July 2013: Unemployment Drop for Older Workers Does Not Translate into Employment Gain Table 1 Selected Employment Indicators by Age Group, July 2012, June 2013, and July 2013 (seasonally adjusted) Date Indicator Population (in 000s) Labor Force (in 000s) July 2012 June 2013 July 2013 Monthly June 2013– July 2013 Annual July 2012– July 2013 16–24 38,799 38,858 38,861 0.0% 0.2% 25–54 124,372 124,406 124,401 0.0% 0.0% 55+ 80,183 82,287 82,493 0.3% 2.9% 16–24 21,407 21,605 21,473 -0.6% 0.3% 25–54 101,248 100,952 100,939 0.0% -0.3% 32,252 33,293 33,269 -0.1% 3.2% 16–24 55.2 55.6 55.3 -0.5% 0.2% 25–54 81.4 81.1 81.1 0.0% -0.4% 55+ 40.2 40.5 40.3 -0.5% 0.2% 16–24 17,905 18,074 18,123 0.3% 1.2% 25–54 94,000 94,461 94,476 0.0% 0.5% 55+ 30,279 31,517 31,612 0.3% 4.4% Age 55+ Labor Force Participation Rate (%) Employment (in 000s) Share of Population Employed (%)* Unemployed (in 000s) Unemployment Rate (%) 16–24 46.1 46.5 46.6 0.2% 1.1% 25–54 75.6 75.9 75.9 0.0% 0.4% 55+ 37.8 38.3 38.3 0.0% 1.3% 16–24 3,503 3,532 3,350 -5.2% -4.4% 25–54 7,248 6,491 6,463 -0.4% -10.8% 55+ 1,973 1,777 1,657 -6.8% -16.0% 16–24 16.4 16.3 15.6 -4.3% -4.9% 25–54 7.2 6.4 6.4 0.0% -11.1% 55+ Not in Labor Force (in 000s)** Percent Change 6.1 5.3 5.0 -5.7% -18.0% 16–24 15,327 15,536 15,355 -1.2% 0.2% 25–54 23,307 23,701 23,628 -0.3% 1.4% 55+ 48,194 49,226 49,577 0.7% 2.9% Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey at http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln. *Employment-to-population ratio. **Not seasonally adjusted. The number of older, unincorporated self-employed workers in nonagricultural industries was just over 3.1 million in July, almost unchanged from the month before but about 24,000 more than a year earlier. 7 As of July, 10.3 percent of older nonagricultural workers were self-employed. This figure compares to 10.2 percent in June and 10.6 percent in July 2012. For most of the 5-plus years since the start of the Great Recession, this figure has hovered around 10 percent. 3 Most older people who are out of the labor force say that they do not want a job (96 percent in July, a figure that has shown little fluctuation in The Employment Situation, July 2013: Unemployment Drop for Older Workers Does Not Translate into Employment Gain Figure 3 Average Duration of Unemployment in Weeks by Age, January 2011–July 2013* Source: Calculated from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics, Table A-36 in Employment and Earnings Online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/archive.htm and http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea36.pdf. Accessed on August 2, 2013. *Averages are not seasonally adjusted. years). The number of older people who are out of the labor force but interested in work rose by 189,000 in July and was about 60,000 more than a year earlier. Just over 1.8 million older non-labor-force participants said that they wanted a job in July. 8 began in 2007, at which time only 53,000 older people were classified as discouraged workers. Concluding Observations July’s employment news for older workers was not especially encouraging. The unemployment rate was down, although not among older men, but employment growth for those aged 55 and older was anemic. Because job growth did not keep up with population growth, older Americans were no more likely to have jobs in July than they were in June. Neither the involuntary parttime employment rate nor the average duration of unemployment showed any improvement. The picture was At 222,000, the number of older “discouraged” workers in July was below the 276,000 for June and the 259,000 for the previous July. Discouraged workers were 12 percent of those older Americans who said that they wanted a job but were not looking, down from 17 percent in June. 9 The number of discouraged remains well above what it was when the recession Table 2 Average Duration of Unemployment, Jobseekers Under Age 55 and Aged 55+, July 2012, June 2013, and July 2013 (not seasonally adjusted) Age July 2012 June 2013 July 2013 Less than 55 34.9 weeks 31.8 weeks 32.9 weeks 55+ 51.4 weeks 48.2 weeks 49.0 weeks Source: Calculated from Employment and Earnings Online, July 2012 at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/2012/cps/tablea36_201207.pdf; June 2013 at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/2013/cps/tablea36_201306.pdf; and July 2013 at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea36.pdf. Accessed on August 2, 2013. 4 The Employment Situation, July 2013: Unemployment Drop for Older Workers Does Not Translate into Employment Gain apparently not bright enough to encourage workers who had left the workforce to return and begin the job search anew. and do fluctuate substantially over the short term because of sampling error or the small number of individuals in a particular category who may have been interviewed. Numbers over a longer period (e.g., beginning to end of the recession) or annually adjusted figures generally provide a more reliable picture. NOTE: Caution is urged in interpreting month-to-month changes in some of the employment figures. Not all figures are seasonally adjusted, and the numbers can Endnotes 1 Unless otherwise specified, “older” in the Fact Sheet refers to people aged 55 and older. Employment and unemployment figures are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted. 2 Statistics in this Fact Sheet are from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), The Employment Situation—July 2013, USDL-13-1527 (Washington, DC: BLS, August 2, 2013); tables in BLS’s Employment and Earnings Online at http://www.bls.gov/opub/ee/archive.htm, various years; BLS tables at http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit.supp.toc.htm; and BLS’s labor force statistics from the Current Population Survey, available at http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln. Some numbers in this Fact Sheet may differ from those reported in earlier Fact Sheets because of adjustments by BLS. 3 This figure is preliminary and may change. In July, BLS reported an estimated 195,000 increase in employment for June; that figure has been revised downward to 188,000. 4 The unemployment rate for men aged 55 and older is seasonally adjusted; the rate for women aged 55 and older is not. According to BLS, unemployment for women in this age group does not appear to show seasonal variation. 5 Figure 3 data go back only to January 2011 because that was when BLS changed its top coding of duration of unemployment from 2 years to 5 years. Before this change, any duration of unemployment greater than 2 years was coded as 2 years. See U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Changes to Data Collected on Unemployment Duration, at http://www.bls.gov/cps/duration.htm. Refers to nonagricultural workers. Data are not seasonally adjusted. 7 Monthly self-employment figures are published by BLS only for unincorporated workers employed in their own business, profession, trade, or farm. (BLS regards self-employed workers who report being incorporated as employees of a corporation and thus classifies them as wage and salary workers.) Selfemployment figures are not seasonally adjusted. 8 Data in this section are not seasonally adjusted. 9 Discouraged workers are not looking for work because they believe that no work is available or that there are no jobs for which they would qualify (e.g., employers would find them too old, they lack the necessary schooling/training). They are a subset of the marginally employed (i.e., people who are not Fact Sheet 290, August 2013 in the labor force who want a job and are AARP Public Policy Institute available for work and who have searched for 601 E. Street, NW, Washington, DC 20049 work during the prior 12 months but not in the www.aarp.org/ppi prior 4 weeks). See BLS at http://www.bls.gov/ 202-434-3910, ppi@aarp.org cps/lfcharacteristics.htm#discouraged. The numbers on discouraged workers are not © 2013, AARP. seasonally adjusted. Reprinting with permission only 5 Fact Sheet 6
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