CDA Leadership Education Conference March 13 2:00—3:15p Irvine Marriott Forecasting the Future… Reality, Conjecture or Predictions? You Plan for Weather, Let’s Plan Your Organization’s Future Too People say, “We can’t predict the future”. Since there are no crystal balls, we can’t
possibly know what the future will be and how it will impact us. But we can learn a
lesson from weather forecasting to imagine “what’s coming.”
With climate modeling scenarios, forecasting algorithms, and constant input of
meteorological data, creditable weather forecasting is much better than it was. Better
forecasting leads to more satisfying weekend and vacation plans. Addressing our
forecasting concerns, recent research funded by ASAE’s Foundation has identified new
information we should consider to expand organizational forecasting capabilities.
Reality Specialists Susanne Connors Bowman— The Haefer Group, Ltd. Rhea Blanken, FASAE—Blanken Consulting/Results Technology Learning is not compulsory. Neither is survival.
Dr. W. Edwards Deming
What you see and hear depends a good deal where you are standing; it also depends on
what sort of person you are.
C.S. Lewis
The great thing in this world is not so much where we are, but in what direction we are
moving.
Oliver Wendell Holmes
Forecasting the Future—reality, conjecture, or predictions
Whether Or Not We Are Ready—The Weather Always Is
By Rhea Blanken, FASAE, Results Technology, Bethesda MD.
Susanne Bowman, The Haefer Group, Reston VA.
Your view of the future shapes your actions today, and your actions today
shape your future. Daniel Burrus, futurist
Background Philosophy
If it’s raining, we will get wet unless certain precautions are taken. No sunscreen applied – you
risk getting skin cancer. Bottom line, you should be prepared for the weather whatever the forecast.
You must be flexible enough to respond to its immediate impact on your plans.
Today’s weather forecasting is much more sophisticated than even a decade ago. Modeling,
algorithms, and constant input of new data have added to the accuracy of meteorology
predications. We now expect weather forecasting to be reliable. Our being prepared is expected,
while being uninformed or unprepared is unwise and can be dangerous.
Just as the weather is constantly changing, so is the environment in which our organizations
operate. In the association community, our “weather forecasting” looks like strategic planning. As
staff and volunteer leaders, we practice being response-able to change (able to respond in the
immediate and even moments prior). Our environment challenges us to be flex-able (able to shift
actions and resources on a dime).
How does one practice being response-able for our association’s weather? First, by determining
the most appropriate vantage point. Determine if your best vantage point is local, regional,
national or global weather. Next, use lessons from past experiences, current conditions, shortrange forecasts and long-range outlooks as your radar screen to see what you need to see.
Then, select measurements for collecting and tracking data to determine how our judgments will
be influenced. With weather, mostly we track temperature and precipitation. But as the total
picture evolves, forecasting models can include high or low-pressure systems, wind speeds,
humidity and barometric pressure. Each of these measures evokes a new possibility. Are we
prepared and ready or know what to do to be ready to enhance or thwart their impact on us?
What are our organization’s measurements? Certainly we track budget and number of members
and numerous other data points. But are we looking for evidence of future engagement trends?
Do we take on those same practices and protocols when interacting with business, economic or
educational forecasts? Too often, we appear surprised and may wonder what to do.
As weather has many forces and subtleties, so do organizational, business and cultural strategic
planning efforts. Recent ASAE Foundation funded research addressed six specific realities as
impacting and influencing for-profit businesses and associations alike. We propose exploring your
readiness to include the 6 Realities in your day-to-day planning just as you would prepare for any
advancing weather system. We are concerned that if staff and volunteer leaders fail to focus and
incorporate them into planning and analysis conversations, your future successes could be in
jeopardy.
Now What
The ongoing assignment —determining how the 6 Realities impacts and influences associations
and how we will make intelligent adjustments going forward. We suggest assembling the Realities
into a visual display, a mobile, reflecting the priority level their impact has on your association’s
future plans. Hint: a mobile models balance and motion—both are desirable capacities for
associations. The following ideas can assist your leadership in their forecasting activities.
LABOR MARKET & ECONOMIC
IMPACTS
The changing labor market and economy will
continue to impact associations. Shifts in
individual members’ economic behavior are
affecting joining, renewing, and participating
rates.
The target membership market (ages 25-54) is
trending smaller, which directly impacts
associations’ potential membership and
participation.
BLURRED SECTOR BOUNDARIES
Boundaries are blurring between non-profit and
for-profit activism. The cause-related, altruistic
attitude once a main frame for non-profits, has
been expanded and amplified by many national
and international corporations promoting a
better civil society. Their websites, marketing
and advertising, and their storefront displays
loudly proclaim their positions.
Current Corporate Responsibility programs are
embedded in corporate profit/loss statements.
This boundary blurring creates opportunities for
collaboration between business, government,
and nonprofits to model innovation and share
lessons learned to provide mission-driven
services.
IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
Demographic shifts continue to define and
shape member engagement. Many associations
are composed of older volunteers and staff
holding leadership positions and younger
members and staff in subordinate roles. There is
a growing need to share leadership across
generations, modeling commitment to the
organization’s sustainability. Strategically,
organizations must initialize, enhance and
escalate collaboration between generations.
Consider: Individual engagement has two
components—commitment (psychological) and
participation (behavioral). A behavioral
measure of “most interest “ is the actual
members participation attending specific
meetings and events plus other active
involvement examples. Which of your
association’s offerings give members the
chance to show commitment and participate in
spite of economics?
> According to Human Economic Behavior,
there is an assumption that people make active
decisions. Faced with a set of options, people
always actively choose the one they like most.
Behavior economists have found people
frequently passively accept whatever happens if
they do nothing. What ways could your
association use this behavioral inclination to its
advantage?
Consider: For-profit firms have formed
cooperative agreements with non-profit
organizations and local government to provide
education and community services. What
partnerships could your association form?
> A Low-Profit Limited Liability Company
(L3C) is a for-profit, social enterprise venture
with a goal of performing a socially beneficial
purpose, not maximizing income. It’s a hybrid
structure combining the legal and tax flexibility
of a traditional LLC, the social benefits of a
nonprofit organization, and the
branding/market advantages of a social
enterprise. Millennials eagerly engage with
L3Cs. How can your group use this model?
Consider: The term “membership” is not
Millennial terminology. Associations should
initiate, enhance and escalate memberrelationships without over using this term.
Millennial are more diverse than any preceding
generation. Research says they are skeptical of
institutions and more likely to start their own
community-based organization rather than
seeking out an existing institution. What does
your membership age group’s profile say about
your future growth opportunities? What will
attract Millennials to you?
TECHNOLOGY & CO-CREATION
Advances in technology enable active cocreation. Social media has triggered
associations to embrace new ways of
connecting and communicating, demanding
ever-expanding openness and transparency.
Today’s social media culture insists upon
authenticity not overly hyped marketing
messages. Younger members especially want to
hear real stories from actual participants looking
and sounding like them. They want to co-create
value correlated and interrelated to their needs.
Consider: Millennial staff and volunteers want
to be on the inside, co-creating what the
organization is doing. How are your
association’s senior leaders working with
younger staffs to have that happen? How are
your members being encouraged to volunteer
and welcomed as “value co-creators”?
NETWORKS
Networks continually drive work organized in
new ways into new relationships. With the
advent of new technologies, new norms for
working collaboratively are surfacing,
advancing their value and use. These networks
are not limited by geographical or language
boundaries. Formal volunteer or staff workinggroups are no longer the only way to get things
done. Standing Committees are giving way to
virtual “adhocracies” and self-forming
volunteer groups are creating original
knowledge and problem solving without staff.
Consider: It’s been said that often that fewer
rules are better than more, that open flow is
better than closed. If volunteer and staff selfforming groups are expected to increase not
decrease, what is your association’s approach
to working with and encouraging volunteerism
and engagement?
VOLUNTEERISM-CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
Interest in civic engagement rises where and
when what matters is clearly evident, with
people believing their engagement makes a
difference. With the rise in direct engagement
opportunities through online activism,
networks, and virtual volunteering, this reality
combines the power of technology, the growth
of networks, and the engagement attitudes
reflected by Millennials.
Consider: How can your staff and volunteer
leaders “plant seeds” to support the
germination of those exciting ideas and
undertakings coming from your members?
How does staff “encourage” and support “cocreation” together and individually?
Exercise 1. Develop 2-­‐3 Forecasts for your organization using the 6-­‐Realities. 2. Give each scenario a Headline representing the 2-­‐3 Realities being used. 3. Include the Resources* your organization will deploy to fulfill each future. (*Programs, Events, Communications, Products, Services, Relationships) 4. Invent a story (50 words max) to describe what you have created. Provocative Quotations • You must do the things you think you cannot do. Eleanor Roosevelt • When you do not know a thing, to allow that you do not know it—this is knowledge. Confucius • Experience is not what happens to you, it’s what you do with what happens to you. Aldous Huxley • An organization’s results are determined through webs of human commitments born in webs of human conversations. Fernando Flores
LABOR MARKET &
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
VOLUNTEERISM & CIVIC
ENGAGEMENT
BLURRED SECTOR
BOUNDARIES
NETWORKS IMPACT OF
DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS
TECHNOLOGY &
CO-CREATION
Susanne Connors Bowman is co-owner of The Haefer Group, Ltd. Her particular areas
of interest include assessing organization’s value proposition often leading to dues
structure changes, training and research. Prior to co-founding The Haefer Group in 1997,
Sue was Director of Insurances Services at AARP for more than 15 years. She was also
a staff member at the American Pharmacists Association.
Sue is an active ASAE member. She is the current Chair of ASAE’s Membership
Development Committee. Her other volunteer leadership roles included being chair of
ASAE’s Consultants Section Council (2010-2011) and its Membership Section Council
(2005-2006). Since September 2007, she has served as a faculty member for ASAE’s
CenterU teaching membership, marketing, management and financial courses. Sue
authored several chapters in ASAE’s preeminent membership resource book
Membership Essentials. She was the lead researcher for New Realities: The Future is
Now! funded by the ASAE Foundation.
Specializing in Value Consulting to Membership Organizations 703-­‐620-­‐9315 sbowman@thehaefergroup.com http://www.thehaefergroup.com Rhea Blanken, FASAE
Rhea founded Results Technology over 30 years ago as a consultancy to both the
association and the business communities. Working with local, national, and international
organizations, she has coached and consulted volunteer and staff leaders plus business
professionals to accomplish their personal, corporate and career goals. Supporting her
clients to declare a future to achieve and then successfully live into it—that’s what she
does!
As co-author of Facing the Future, an environmental scan report published by ASAE,
Rhea investigated circumstances impacting associations and the businesses they serve.
With Embracing the Future, a companion toolkit of future-focused exercises and activities,
she sought ways to have leaders empowered to make their desired future actually
happen. The bottom line messages from these publications include: the future is not onesize fits all; there is no one roadmap providing a guaranteed route for accomplishing any
strategic scenario; and leaders acting in partnership with their staff will reveal the
knowledge needed to make the future happen.
Rhea stages memorable developmental opportunities to continuously deliver exceptional
experiences infused with value. Her motto, inside-the-box resources can be leveraged to
deliver outside-the-box strategic results, guides her consulting, coaching, facilitating, and
writing. Rhea is proud to be an ASAE Fellow.
Strategist Facilitator, Executive Coach, Creative Solution Generator, and Speaker *ASAE Certified CAE Content Provider 301.320.8711 rheaz@resultstech.com www.resultstech.com