Florida Statewide Agricultural Irrigation Demand (FSAID):
Predicting the amounts and spatial distribution of irrigation
water use (2015 to 2035)
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
Florida’s Water Management Districts
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Florida’s Water Supply Planning Process
• Created by the Florida
Legislature in 1997 (Chapter
97-160, Laws of Florida)
• Every five years needs and
sources are assessed for a 20year period, and any deficit
must be addressed in a
regional water supply plan by
identifying sufficient new
sources to meet future needs
and to protect minimum flows
and levels
“The product of these political clashes was a
statutory scheme purposefully designed to
increase water resources. For the first time, the
state’s water policy focused on the development
of water resources and water supply, rather than
merely allocating water among competing users.”
(Matthews and Nieto, 1998, FSU Law Review)
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Central Florida Water Initiative (CFWI)
Orlando
Tampa
Orlando
Miami
Issues with CFWI Demand Projections
• Significant variation among the three WMDs in water use estimates
for the same crop, at the district and county level
• Interface of urban development and agricultural irrigation demand.
• Significant crop trends not accounted for.
• Example:
Blueberry production has increased to meet demand in a period
between April 1 and May 20 when Florida is the primary producer
of fresh blueberries in the Northern Hemisphere. In the 10-year
period 1996-2007, production increased from 2.7 million pounds
to 7.8 million pounds and acreage more than doubled. Existing
blueberry acreage was not accounted for and negligible growth
was projected.
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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FDACS Role in Water Supply Planning
• Based on issues that arose during the CFWI planning process, the
Florida Legislature assigned FDACS the responsibility of estimating
future agricultural water supply demands.
• Section 570.93(2), Florida Statutes, directs the department to
establish an agricultural water supply planning program. In
estimating future demand, appropriate conservation measures must
be accounted for and significant uncertainties evaluated.
• Section 373.709(2), Florida Statutes, directs the WMDs to consider
FDACS estimates in determining the best available data for
agricultural self-supplied water needs to be included in their
regional water supply plans. Any adjustments or deviation must be
explained in the plan, and the original estimates must be presented
with the adjusted estimates.
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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FSAID
• Florida Statewide Agriculture Irrigation Demand
• Contracted with The Balmoral Group to develop
methodology and project estimates of future agricultural
water supply demand
• FSAID 1.0 completed June 2014
• FSAID 2.0 completed June 2015
• Significant changes included using available water use
data rather than usage based on the Agricultural Field
Scale Irrigation Requirements Simulation (AFSIRS)
model, a single scenario, and explicitly modeling
silviculture conversion
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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FSAID 2.0
Goal
• Develop agricultural water use estimates –
including their spatial distribution – 2015 to
2035 using a consistent approach statewide
Approach
• Use measured irrigation water use to develop a
water use model that links economic and biophysical factors; economic factors allow future
prices and input costs to impact water use
estimates
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Factors in Water Demand Model
• Irrigation
• Weather
• Crop
• Soils
• Land Use
Pressures
Engineering
Economic
Economic
Economic
• Unirrigated
Land
• Crop Prices
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Econometric Model
Replicate Water use
Simulate Future conditions
Project Future Demand
Y = β0 + β1(RF) + β2 (ET)+ β 3 (NP) + β4(PERIRR) + β6 (IRR) + β5 (FF) +βLL + ε
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Y = water use (million gallons per year, calculated at the field scale),
RF is rainfall,
ET is evapotranspiration,
NP is a Crop-specific revenue variable,
PERIRR is the percentage of permitted acreage that is irrigated,
IRR is a dummy representing the type of irrigation system, and
FF is a dummy indicating if the field had a freeze-protected crop and was in an area of freeze
for the year of water use in question,
• L is a vector of location attributes including Latitude/Longitude coordinates from GIS and Water
Management District dummies.
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Trend toward increased utilization of land
Historical Irrig./Ag
30%
25%
20%
NWFWMD
SRWMD
15%
SJRWMD
SWFWMD
SFWMD
10%
5%
0%
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
11
Irrigated share of total permitted area used in
model development:
Unirrigated land & Land use pressures
Irrigated Share of Total Permitted Area
100%
90%
86%
80%
76%
70%
69%
60%
50%
52%
58%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
NWFWMD
SRWMD
SFWMD
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
SJRWMD
SWFWMD
12
% of total irrigated polygons with water use data
validated for model development:
ranges from 4% to 15% of total irrigated area by district
WMD
NWFWMD
SFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
SWFWMD
FL Total
ILG Polygons
(FSAID2)
1,001
6,721
5,634
1,798
11,082
26,236
ILG Polygons with
Meter Data (FSAID2)
369
1,119
222
140
1,336
3,186
ILG Polygons with Valid
Meter Data (FSAID2)
127
1,119
220
140
1,296
2,902
ILG Polygons in
Dataset (FSAID2)
123
983
212
140
1,073
2,531
% Irrigated polygons used
for model development
16%
14%
12%
10%
15%
12%
10%
8%
8%
6%
4%
4%
2%
0%
NWFWMD
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
SFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
13
SWFWMD
% of total irrigated area with water use data
validated for model development:
ranges from 3% to 19% of total irrigated area by district
WMD
NWFWMD
SFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
SWFWMD
FL Total
ILG Acreage
(FSAID2)
56,829
1,045,697
177,371
123,956
396,459
1,800,312
ILG Acreage with
Meter Data (FSAID2)
26,956
145,080
6,122
10,416
69,949
258,523
ILG Acreage with Valid
Meter Data (FSAID2)
10,791
145,080
5,781
10,416
66,900
238,969
ILG Acreage in Dataset
(FSAID2)
10,747
139,224
5,753
10,346
66,114
232,184
% Irrigated Area used for
model development
20%
19%
17%
15%
13%
10%
8%
5%
3%
0%
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
NWFWMD
SFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
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SWFWMD
Statewide Geodatabase of 2015 Irrigated Lands:
crop, irrigation, soils, rainfall, ET
Florida total cropland
area: 8,508,719 acres,
147,000 fields
Florida irrigated area:
1,800,312 acres,
27,000 fields
FSAID
Outcomes
• Geodatabase (spatial dataset, 2015-2035):
o Irrigated areas
o Water use: irrigation, livestock, cold protection
o Conservation potential
Agricultural Water Use:
Florida 2015
Agricultural Irrigation: 2,132 MGD
Cold Protection:
Livestock:
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources
Conference
Aquaculture:
97.1 MGD
38.4 MGD
5.5 MGD
16
Projected
Acreage Change
2015-2035
Projected
MGD Change
2015-2035
Projections: 5% increase in irrigated acreage but
17% increase in water use
NWFWMD
SFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
SWFWMD
Statewide
2015 – 2035
2015
2035
Change
Acres
MGD
Acres
MGD
Acres
MGD
56,829
46
66,713
59
9,883
13
1,045,697 1,237 1,129,211 1,448 83,514
210
177,371
208
157,536
223
-19,835
14
123,956
107
162,106
151
38,150
44
396,459
534 2015 AWRA
369,888
-26,571
77
Annual Water 611
Resources Conference
1,800,312 2,132 1,885,453 2,491 85,142
359
% Change
Acres
MGD
17%
29%
8%
17%
-11%
7%
31%
41%
-7%
14%
5%
17%
17
Relative changes
in agricultural
water demand
by county
Counties > 15 MGD
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Irrigation: inches/year
2015
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
2035
19
Citrus:
Field Crops:
Vegetable:
Hay/Pasture:
2015, inches/year
2015, inches/year
2015, inches/year
2015, inches/year
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Irrigation types: statewide
FLORIDA
FLORIDA, unsweetened
Irrigation types: by district
NWFWMD
SJRWMD
SRWMD
SFWMD
SWFWMD
Crops: by district
NWFWMD
SJRWMD
SFWMD, with sugar
SFWMD
SRWMD
SWFWMD
FSAID
Outcomes
• User interface: FSAID2.com
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Other uses of Data
• Water Supply Planning
• Alternative water supplies limited
• Targeting Best Management Practices
• Incentives to match need to funding
• Policy implications:
• Areas to encourage/discourage new farming activity?
• Areas affected by changes in state water policy
• Areas affected by citrus greening, imports
• Understanding behavior
• Crop choices vs. revenues vs. location
• Understanding efficiencies
• Actual equipment outcomes vs. published efficiency ratios
2015 AWRA Annual Water Resources Conference
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Questions…
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