FloridaLeagueofWomenVotersOpenPrimaryStudyKit
January25,2017
StudyChair,MicheleLevy
StudyPreparers:
RayHudkins,MimiTipton,TheoWebster,BrendaAlston,PatDrago,Ann
Hellmuth,AnnaEskamini,RaechelGarafolo,KathyHansen,
SandraPowers,VivianFaircloth,JoMatthews,JimCanty
ParticipatingLeagues:
AlachuaCounty
NorthPinellas
BayCounty
OrangeCounty
BrowardCounty PensacolaBayCounty
CharlotteCounty PolkCounty
CitrusCounty
Sanibel
CollierCounty SarasotaCounty
HillsboroughCounty SeminoleCounty
JacksonvilleFirstCoast SpaceCoast
LowerKeys
St.LucieCounty
ManateeCounty St.Petersburg
NorthPinellas TheVillagesTriCounty
UpperKeys
ExecutiveSummary
The2016Electionchallengedmanyoftheassumptionsaboutwhatvoterswantand
howelectionswork.Thiscomprehensivestudyonprimariesandimprovingvoterturnoutis
anopportunitytoevaluateandreinventthecurrentprocess.
Doyouthinkthatweshouldhaveelectionsinwhichonly17%ofvotersdeterminea
candidateforpublicoffice?DoyouthinkourcurrentprimarysystemworkswellforFlorida
voters?Doyoubelievethateveryonewhowantstoshouldbeabletoparticipatetotheir
fullest?
Ifyouansweredyestoanyofthesequestions,thenmaybeweneedtomakechangesto
thewayweselectcandidates.Thisstudywilllookatalternativestoourcurrentsystemwith
thegoalofincreasingvoterparticipation.ThisExecutiveSummarycontainsthefollowing:
(1)FiveKeyFindings;
(2)FactorsInfluencingVoterTurnout;
(3)PotentialSolutionstoLowVoterTurnout;
(4)MajorFindingsfromInterviewswithSupervisorsofElections(SOEs),andfrom
LeadersofPoliticalParties;
(5)ElectionInputfromOtherStateLeagueswithDifferentorSameElectionSystems;
(6)ElectionInputfromtheTwinCities—Minneapolis/St.Paul,Minnesotaandfrom
PierceCountyWashington(Tacomaarea).
Twootherfactorsprovideasenseofurgencytothisstudy:
(1)Morethanamillionnewvotershaveregisteredasnon-partyaffiliated(NPAs)
between2004-2016.This64%increaseinnon-partyaffiliatedregisteredvotersis
unprecedented,tothebestofourknowledge,and
(2)Fortypercent(40%)ofthisincreaseinNPAsaremillennials,ages18-34years.
Therefore,ourstudycommitteefelttheneedtoaddresstheissueofmillennialsandwhat,if
anything,shouldbedonetoincreasetheirparticipationintheelectionprocess.Floridaisa
closedprimaryelectionsystemstate.ThismeansthatNPAsareexcludedfromvotingin
candidateprimaryelectionsunlesstheyregisterwitharecognizedpoliticalpartywithinthe
timeframeallowedbylaw.Theresultsfromthesurveyofmillennialsarealsoincludedinthe
study.
TheanalyticalsupportforthecomponentsoftheExecutiveSummaryisprovidedinthe
actualdetailedstudyreportitself.Forexample,thisstudy,asaresultoftheparticipationof
manystatewideLeaguemembersindatagathering,dataanalysisandevaluation,and
technicalsupport,includesthefollowingkeyinformation:
• AnalysisofFiveElectionSystemswithFactsandExpertOpinions
• EvaluationoftheFiveElectionSystemsversusEvaluationCriteria
• DescriptionofPresidentialPreferencePrimaries(PPP);StateCaucuses
• StateDivisionofElectionsProceduresandLeaguePositions
• Bibliography
• Glossary
• Conclusion
HerearethekeycomponentsoftheExecutiveSummary:
FiveKeyFindings:
•
•
•
•
•
ThevoterturnoutinFlorida’sclosedprimaryelectionsystemissignificantlylowerwhen
comparedwithvoterturnoutdatafromopenelectionsystems.Seventysix(76%)percent
ofallopenprimarystateshaveahigherturnoutthanFlorida.Also,thereareafewstates
withclosedprimaryelectionsystemswithhighervoterturnoutthanFlorida’s.
VoterturnoutinFlorida’sprimaryelectionsystemisinfluencedbyacomplexsetof
factors.Nosinglesolutionmaysucceedinimprovingturnoutinprimaryelections.
Isolatingtherootcauseofotherstates’successwithhighervoterturnoutwas
unachievablewithinourtimeframe.
Therearemorethan3.4millionNPAsandminorpartyregisteredvoterswhoarenot
allowedtovoteincandidateprimaryelectionsunlesstheymeetthetermsdescribed
above.Morethan1.2millionnewvotersregisteredasnon-partyaffiliated(NPAs)
between2004-2016.Thisrepresentsa64%increaseinnon-partyaffiliatedregistered
voters,and40%ofthisincreaseinNPAsaremillennials,ages18-34years.
Administrativeandlegislativeactionsarenotsufficient,inandofthemselves,toaddress
manyofthereasonsforlowvoterturnout,suchascandidatequalityorvoterapathy.
ReplacementoftheclosedprimaryelectionsysteminFloridawillrequirechangesto
FloridaStatutesand/orFlorida’sConstitution.Thecostsassociatedwithareplacement
havenotbeenascertainedandarenotincludedinthisstudy.
FactorsInfluencingVoterTurnout
Thefactorsinfluencingvoterturnouthavebeenorganizedintocategoriestofacilitate
understanding:
Awareness/Publicity/Education
Lesspublicityforprimariesthanforgeneralelections
Lackofciviceducation
Parentssettinganexamplefortheirchildrenbyvoting.
Voters’Feelings/Positions/Expressions
“Myvotedoesn'tcount”
“Whatdifferencewillmyvotemake?”(voterapathy)
“Idon’ttrustgovernment”
“Idon’twanttojoinaparty”(Millennialstendnottoaffiliatewithpartybeliefs)
PoliticalIssues/Candidates
Gerrymanderingofdistricts
Non-responsivenessofelectedofficials
Polarizationofvoters
Candidatesontheballot
Issuesontheballot
ImpactofPresidentialPreferencePrimaries(PPP)
HigherturnoutinPPP
Lowerturnoutinmid-term(off-year)elections
ClosedPPPexcludesNPAsandminorpartyvoters
SocioeconomicIndicators
Poverty
PotentialSolutionstoLowVoterTurnout
Potentialsolutionstolowvoterturnouthavebeenorganizedintocategoriesto
fmakethemeasiertounderstand.Solutionswith“Florida”inparenthesesindicatethatFlorida
hasalreadyimplementedthechange.Solutionsinboldtextarethesubjectofconsensus
statementsdesignedtoascertaintheopinionsofLWVFleagues.
Administrative
ContinuesendingelectionreminderstovotersbySOEs(Florida)
ContinuevoterregistrationatDepartmentofMotorVehicles(DMV)(Florida)
Implementautomaticvoterregistrationatage18
Continuepre-voterregistrationatage16(Florida)
ImplementElectionDayvoterregistration(EDR)
Implementsamedaychangeofpartyaffiliation(Samedayaselectionday)
Implementvote-by-mailexclusively
Shortenregistrationclose-out-datetolessthan29days
Openvotecenters
Implementon-linevoting
Implementon-linevoterregistration(Florida)
ContinueEarlyVotinginFlorida(Florida)
MakeElectionDayaholiday
Political
Changetoopenprimaryelectionsystemfromclosedprimaryelection
system
Establishthresholdcriteriaforwrite-incandidatestoqualify
Requireuniversalvotingwhereallregisteredvotersarerequiredtovote
(compulsoryvoting)
Implementandholdanationalprimaryday
ParticipateinGetOuttheVoteactivities
MonitorVoterIDorotherpotentialvotersuppressioninfluences
Fundelectionspublicly-eliminatecorruptinginfluenceofmoneyinpolitics
Scheduleballotinitiativesduringprimary(notgeneralelections)
CreateIndependentRedistrictingCommission
Educational
Implementandcontinuevoterelectioneducation
Implementvotercivicseducation(Florida)
ImplementBi-partisanPolicyCenterideas
MajorFindingsfromInterviewswithSupervisorsofElectionsandfromLeadersof
PoliticalParties
TheinputfromSupervisorsofElectionswascriticaltothestudyandisincludedbelow:
TheyopposedElectionDayRegistration.(EDR)
Theyhighlightedvote-by-mailandearlyvotingascontributorstohigherturnout.
Theysupportedimplementingvotecenters(ElectionDayportabilitylikeearlyvoting).
Theysawthetopthree(3)contributorstolowvoterturnout:
lackofcompetitiveraces;
ballotissues;
voterapathy.
Theybelievethatthe“write-incandidate”loopholeshouldbeclosed,possiblyby
the2017-2018ConstitutionalRevisionCommission.
TheysupportedElectionDayportabilityofvotingatanylocationwithinthecountyas
doneinearlyvoting.
Theinputfromleadersofbothpoliticalpartiesisincludedbelow:
Leadersfromthepartiessplit50/50insupportoforoppositiontoopenprimaries.
Thoseinoppositioncitedriskofpoliticalmanipulationandalossofpartycontrol.Those
favoringopenprimariesalsocitedpoliticalmanipulationasarisk.Also,seven(7)of15
politicalpartyleadersinterviewedopposedwrite-incandidates.Six(6)leadersfavoredwriteincandidates.Two(2)leaderswereneutral.
ElectionInputfromOtherStateLeagueswithDifferentorSameElectionsSystems
Thestudycommitteeselectedsix(6)otherstateleaguestohelpobtaina
representativesampleofdifferentelectiontypes.TheLeagueofWomenVotersofArizona
(LWVAZ)supportsInstantRunoffVoting(IRV).TheLWVofCalifornia(LWVCA)supports
electiontypesthatachieveamajoritywinnerandcitesIRVastheexampleofanelection
systemtheysupport.TheStateofMichiganholdsopenprimaries.TheStateofNewYorkholds
closedprimariesandtheLeaguetherehastriedunsuccessfullytochangetoanopenprimary
electionsystem.PrimaryElectionSystemStudyReportsfromOregonandOhioleaguesare
forthcoming.
ElectionInputfromtheTwinCities(Minneapolis/St.Paul,Minnesota)andfromPierce
CountyWashington(Tacomaarea)
MinneapolisandSt.PaulconductIRVelections.PierceCountyWashingtontriedIRV
onceandrejecteditduetodissatisfactionwiththeresults.
SurveyofMillennials
Twosurveysofmillennialswereconducted.Thefirstwasaself-selecttypesurveyin
whichindividuals,18-34yearsofage,wereprovidedwithane-maillinktothesurveyon
SurveyMonkey.Thesecondsurveyfeaturedrandomlyselectedtelephoneinterviews
sponsoredbytheHaasCenter,aresearchandconsultingcenteroftheUniversityofWest
Florida.TheHaasCenterusedthesameSurveyMonkeyquestions.Initialresultsfromthe
surveyrevealthat,generallyspeaking,millennialsdonotwanttoregisterwithapolitical
party.Moreover,theywantrealcandidatechoiceinelections.Theyalsofavoropenprimaries
andsamedayElectionDayregistrationandElectionDaychangeofpartyaffiliation.Additional
findingswillbeaddedwhenthesurveyiscompletedbytheendofJanuary2017.
BriefPreviewofStudyElements
Sevenelectionsystemswereanalyzedandevaluatedtodifferentiatefactfromopinion
andtocompareeachsystemwiththesevenpre-establishedevaluationcriteria.Twoofthe
sevenelectionsystemswereeliminatedearly.ThePartiallyClosedPrimaryisusedinonly
sevenstates,includingtwocaucusstates.Onlytwoofthepartiallyclosedprimarieshad
slightlyhigherturnoutthanFlorida.Thisprimarytypeisrarelyusedbyapoliticalparty.In
effect,thiselectiontypeisreallyaclosedprimary.ThePartiallyOpenPrimaryisusedinonly
sixstates,includingtwocaucusstates.WhilethreestateshadhigherturnoutthanFlorida,11
of13OpenPrimary(toallvoters)statesprovidedsignificantlygreaterturnout.Fiveelection
systemswereevaluatedindetail:
(1)Closed;
(2)OpentoUnaffiliatedVoters;
(3)Open;
(4)TopTwo;and
(5)InstantRunoffVoting(IRV).NOTE:In2007afterastudycompletedbytheSt
PetersburgLeague,theFloridaLeague“recommendedInstantRunoffVotingasanalternative
toFlorida’spresentsystemofpluralityvoting”.
Thesevenpre-establishedevaluationcriteriaare:
(1)SimpleandEasytoUnderstand;
(2)VerifiableandAuditable;
(3)FostersCompetition;
(4)MinimizesPoliticalManipulation;
(5)RepresentsDemographics;
(6)TechnicallyandFiscallyFeasible;
(7)WinnerAchievesMajorityVote.
Notoneofthesystemsmetallevaluationcriteria.Additionalanalysisandevaluationof
Closed,Open,OpentoUnaffiliatedVoters,aswellasTopTwoandIRVarecontainedwithin
theStudyKitandthebodyofthecomprehensivestudy.Similarly,thechartswith
accompanyingexplanationsprovideclarificationsandtheeffectonvoterturnoutby
PresidentialPreferencePrimariesandstatecaucuses.Lastly,eachclaimmadeissupportedby
harddata,orthesourceiscited.
YouarenowawareofthecontentsoftheExecutiveSummaryandtheOpenPrimary
Study.Asacaveat,itisimportantforyoutoknowwhatthisstudydoesnotcontain.Tothe
bestofourabilitywedeterminedtobecognizantofanyunintendedbiasinourstudyandto
eliminateitifandwheniteverappeared.
Wefurtherdeterminedtoupdateourstudywithrelevantinformationfromthe
primaryelectionsystemsstudiescurrentlybeingconductedbyOregonandOhioleagues.The
anticipateddateofcompletionfortheirstudiesissecondquarter,2017.Completenessisa
studyaimandwhilethisstudyrepresentsthemostcomprehensiveandexhaustiveeffort
duringa21-monthperiodbythestudyparticipants,thestudycommitteemembersrealize
thisisnotthelastorfinalwordregardingthisimportantmatter.Therefore,weagreedtobe
opentoadditionalrelevantinformationasitbecomesavailable.TheLeagueofWomenVoters
“encouragesinformedandactiveparticipationingovernment…”Thisstudyfurthersthat
aspectofitsmission.
ConsensusStatements
TheOpenPrimaryStudyKitincludestwotypesofconsensusstatements:(1)Potential
changestoourprimaryelectionsystemand(2)Potentialsolutionsthatcanbeimplemented
withoutchangingelectionsystems.
1.Consensusstatement:ThecurrentprimarysysteminFloridahindersvoterturnout.
Discussion:
AccordingtoFloridastatute101.021,“Inaprimaryelectionaqualifiedelectoris
entitledtovotetheofficialprimaryelectionballotofthepoliticalpartydesignatedinthe
elector’sregistration,andnoother.Itisunlawfulforanyelectortovoteinaprimaryforany
candidaterunningfornominationfromapartyotherthanthatinwhichsuchelectoris
registered”MinorPartyandNoPartyAffiliatevotersareexcludedfromtheseprimaries
unlesstheychangepartyregistration.Candidatesmayqualifytoruninageneralelectionby
payingfees(FloridaStatute99.061)orbyobtainingpetitionsignaturesof1percentofthe
registeredvotersintheprecedinggeneralelection(FloridaStatute99.095).Thechartbelow
comparevoterturnoutsofNationalConferenceofStateLegislaturesOpenPrimaryversus
Florida’sclosedprimary.TurnoutdataisfromDr.MichaelMcDonald’sU.S.ElectionsProject).
Discussion(continued):Nationwide76%ofallopenprimarystatesbeatFlorida’sturnout.
ComparedtootherclosedprimariesFloridaisbestedby45%ofthosestates.Everystate
addressesturnoutinavarietyofwaysdemonstratingthatprimarytypeisjustoneofthe
factorsinincreasingturnout.Comparingonlyopen-to-allvotersprimaries(Figure#2above)
Floridaisbestedby85%ofthosestates.Thecombinationofsignificantturnoutdifferences
andFlorida’srestrictiononNPAandminorpartyvotersclearlyindicatethatclosedprimaries
contributetolowvoterturnout.Ina2012DemocracyProjectreporttheBipartisanPolicy
Centersaid,“...theinescapableconclusiontobedrawnfromthepreponderanceofthedatais
thatopenandmodifiedopenprimarieshavemodestlyhigherturnoutthanclosedprimaries”
PRO
▪ Nationwide76%ofallopenprimarystatesbeatFloridaturnout
▪ Aclosedprimaryexcludes3.4million(27%)NPAandminorpartyvotersinprimary
electionsunlesstheychangepartyaffiliation
▪ NPAsandminorpartyvoterswantavoiceinallelections
▪ Anopenprimarymayincreasevoterturnout
CON
▪ Politicalpartiesseechangeasalossofcontrolandweakeningoftheirstructure
▪ Onlypartymembersshouldhaveavoiceinselectingtheircandidateforoffice
▪ Changingprimaryelectiontypesmayconfusevoters
Consensusstatement:ThecurrentprimarysysteminFloridahindersvoterturnout.
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
2.ConsensusStatement:NPAs(NoPartyAffiliation)andminorpartyvotersshould
haveanopportunitytovoteinallprimaryelections.
Discussion:VotersareincreasinglyregisteringasNoPartyAffiliation(NPA)nation-wideand
inFloridabecausetheyareturnedoffbythedysfunctionofthenationalandstate
governmentsandpoliticalparties.Thechartbelowshowsthenationaltrendbasedona2016
GallupPollwiththefollowingquestion:“Inpolitics,asoftoday,doyouconsideryourselfa
Republican,aDemocrat,oranindependent?”Noticethewordingofthepoll.Itdoesnotask
howtheyareregisteredbutwhattheyconsiderthemselvestobe.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
Gallup 2016 Poll
Percent
50
38
25
13
0
Republicans
Democrats
NPAs
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 ThetrendissimilarinFlorida.From2004through2016FloridaNPAshavegrownover1.2
millionvotersasshowninthechartbelow.
Florida NPA Analysis (2004 - 2016)
6,250,000
5,000,000
3,750,000
2,500,000
1,250,000
Republican
Democrat
NPA
'2004
2006
2008
3010
2012
2014
2016 PRO
▪ ChangingFlorida’sclosedprimarytoanopenprimarywouldallow3.1millionNPA
voterstotakepartinthepoliticalprocess.
▪ NPAvotersaregrowinginnumbers.From2004to2016NPAsgrewover1.2million.
▪ TheMillennialsurveyindicatesthatyoungvoterswantcandidatechoicewithout
havingtopickaparty.
▪ IncludingNPAsinthepoliticalprocesswouldaddthefollowingdemographics
accordingtoFloridaDivisionofElectionsdata
White
NPAs
1,733,595
AllVoters
8,071,134
NPA%
21%
Black
239,855
Hispanic
Other
643,521
324,575
1,662,889 1,926,749
782,950
14%
33%
41%
CON
▪ Politicalpartiesseeachangeasalossofcontrolandweakeningoftheirstructure
▪ Onlypartymembersshouldhaveavoiceinselectingtheircandidateforoffice
▪ Changingprimaryelectiontypesmayconfusevoters
ConsensusStatement:NPAs(NoPartyAffiliation)andminorpartyvotersshouldhave
anopportunitytovoteinallprimaryelections.
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
3.ConsensusStatement:TheprimarysystemthatwouldbestservethevotersofFlorida
isClosed/OpentoUnaffiliated/Open/TopTwo/InstantRunoffVoting(Rankyour
topthree(onebeingyourfirstchoice)
Discussion:Thestudycommitteeevaluatedsevendifferentelectiontypesaspotential
replacementsforthecurrentclosedprimary.Twoofthesevenwereeliminatedearlyinthe
analysis.
ThePartiallyClosedPrimaryisusedinonlysevenstates,includingtwocaucusstates.Noneof
theprimarystatesofferedanyrealimprovementoverFlorida’sclosedsystem.Onlytwoofthe
partiallyclosedprimarieshadslightlyhigherturnoutthanFlorida.Thisprimarytypeisrarely
usedbyapoliticalparty.Ineffectthiselectiontypeisaclosedprimary.
ThePartiallyOpenPrimaryisusedinonlysixstates,includingtwocaucusstates.Whilethree
stateshadhigherturnoutthanFlorida,11of13OpenPrimary(toallvoters)stateshad
significantlygreaterturnout.
TheStudyEvaluationCriteriaMatrixbelowhighlightsassessmentofthefiveelectiontype
versusstudycommitteeselectedevaluationcriteria.Thefollowingdefinitionsareprovided
forreference.Fordetaileddefinitionofelectionsystemsandadditionaldetailedfactand
expertopinionanalysesseetheAppendixtothisStudyKit.
ClosedPrimaryallowsonlyvotersregisteredwithapartytoparticipateinthatparty’s
primary.(9statesincludingFlorida)
OpentoUnaffiliatedVotersprimaryallowsonlyunaffiliatedvoterstoparticipatein
anypartyprimarytheychoose,butdoesnotallowvoterswhoareregisteredwithonepartyto
voteinanotherparty’sprimary.(9states)
Openprimarystates,ingeneral,butnotalways,donotaskvoterstochoosepartieson
thevoterregistrationform.Allvotersmaychoosewhichparty’sballottovote,butthis
decisionisprivateanddoesnotregisterthevoterwiththatparty.(15states)
TopTwoprimariesuseacommonballot,listingallcandidatesonthesameballot.The
toptwovotegettersineachrace,regardlessofparty,advancetothegeneralelection.(4
states)
InstantRunoffVoting((IRV)primaryelectionsarenotdefinedbyNCSL.Ballotpedia
providesthefollowingdefinition.IRVisanelectoralsystemwherevotersrankcandidatesin
orderofpreference.Intheeventthatonecandidatefailstoachieveamajorityvote,the
candidatewiththefewestnumberoffirst-preferencerankingsiseliminatedandthesevotes
areredistributedtotheremainingcandidates.Theprocessisrepeateduntilonecandidate
achievestherequiredmajority.(11cities/counties:MaineapprovedIRVinthe2016election.)
UniversalPrimariesisaprimaryelectioninwhichallthecandidateshavethesame
partyaffiliation,butwillnothaveanyoppositioninthegeneralelection.DuringaUniversal
Primary,allqualifiedvotersmayvoteregardlessoftheirpartyaffiliation.However,thereis
oneexception:ifawriteincandidateisontheballot,theprimaryelectionwillbeclosedand
onlyvoterswhoareregisteredwiththepartyaffiliationofthecandidatelistedontheballot,
willbeeligibletovote.
Criteria
Closed
Open
Open TopTwo
Unaffiliated
IRV*
Simple&EasytoUnderstand
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
Verifiable&Auditable
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
Fosterscompetition
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
Minimizespoliticalmanipulation
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
Representsdemographics
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
Technically&fiscallyfeasible
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES/??
Winnerachievesmajorityvote
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
*In2007theLeagueaddedanElectionLawpositionthatreadsasfollows:“Recommended
instantrunoffvotingasanalternativetoFlorida’spresentsystemofpluralityvoting”.
TheIRVfiscallyfeasibleassessmentof??indicatesthatcostisinvolvedbutwasnotpartof
thisstudy.
ConsensusStatement:TheprimarysystemthatwouldbestservethevotersofFloridais
Closed/OpentoUnaffiliated/Open/TopTwo/InstantVoterRunoff(Rankyourtop
three(one1beingyourfirstchoice)
NOTE:Therankorderingisameansforeachleaguetoarriveatconsensusnoteachindividual
memberoftheleague.Thisconsensusstatementdoesnotrequireprosandconsaswehavea
matrixtoexplainwhichonesarethebestintermsofourcriteria.
Comments:
4.Consensusstatement:Whichofthefollowingwouldbethebestelectionsystemfor
thePresidentialPreferencePrimary?Closed/Open/OpentoUnaffiliated
Discussion:FloridacurrentlyholdsclosedprimaryelectionsforbothPresidentialPreference
Primary(PPP)andstatelevelelections.AccordingtotheNCSL36statesholdPPPandstate
levelprimariesusingthesameelectiontype.Twelveofthe36statesholdopen-to-allvoters’
primaries.CaliforniaholdsTopTwoprimariesforstatelevelelectionsandholdsclosedor
partiallyclosedPPPsbasedonapartydecisionandnotificationtotheSecretaryofState.
Consensustopic#3(ElectionSystemType)aboveexaminesachoiceoffiveelectiontypes.For
aPPPtheTopTwoelectionsystemdoesn’t“downselect”toonecandidate;thereforeisnota
viableoption.AnIRVelectiontypetypicallyeliminatestheprimaryandawinneris
determinedviarankorderingofallcandidatesregardlessofpartyaffiliation.IRVwouldbe
confusinggiventhechangeinfocusfromallcandidatesvyingforstatelevelofficeto
candidatesvyingforthepresidentialnominationwithinaparty.Forthisconsensustopicthe
remainingchoicesareclosed;OpentoUnaffiliatedVoters;andOpen(toallvoters).Seethe
definitionsofprimarytypesinConsensusStatement#3aboveandtheappendixtothisstudy
fordetailedelectionsystemsdefinitions.
ClosedPrimarieswouldcontinuetheelectionsystemwehavenowbutitwouldexclude3.4
millionvoterswithoutpartyaffiliationorregisteredwithminorparties.IfwehadOpen
Primaries,allvoterswouldhaveanopportunitytovoteintheprimaryoftheirchoice.Ifwe
hadthesametypesofPrimariesforbothStateandPresidentialprimaries,voterswouldbe
lessconfused.anditwouldbeeasierforourSupervisorsofElections.Wehaveeliminated
TopTwoPrimarysinceweneedtohaveasinglewinneraswellasIRVleavinguswiththree
choices.
Consensusstatement:Whichofthefollowingwouldbethebestelectionsystemforthe
PresidentialPreferencePrimary?Closed/Open/OpentoUnaffiliated
□ Closed
□ Open
□ OpentoUnaffiliated
5.Consensusstatement:Thresholdcriteriashouldbeestablishedforwrite-in
candidatesthatmorecloselymirrorcurrentrequirementsforannouncedcandidates.
Discussion:AccordingtotheFloridaConstitution(ArticleVI,SectionV),whenall
candidatesinaraceareofthesamepartyaffiliation,allregisteredvotersareeligibletovotein
thatprimary.ThisisknowninFloridaasaUniversalPrimary.FloridaStatutesstate,
“(4)(a)Eachpersonseekingtoqualifyforelectiontoofficeasawrite-incandidateshallfilehis
orherqualificationpaperswiththerespectivequalifyingofficeratanytimeafternoonofthe
1stdayforqualifying,butnotlaterthannoonofthelastdayofthequalifyingperiodforthe
officesought.
(b)Anypersonwhoisseekingelectionasawrite-incandidateshallnotberequiredtopay
afilingfee,electionassessment,orpartyassessment.Awrite-incandidateisnotentitledto
havehisorhernameprintedonanyballot;however,spaceforthewrite-incandidate’sname
tobewritteninmustbeprovidedonthegeneralelectionballot.Apersonmaynotqualifyasa
write-incandidateifthepersonhasalsootherwisequalifiedfornominationorelectionto
suchoffice.”
Ifawrite-incandidatequalifiestobeontheballot,the“samepartyaffiliation”Universal
PrimarybecomesaClosedPrimary.Onlyregisteredpartymembersforthatpartymay
vote.Thewrite-incandidatelinedoesnotappearontheprimaryballotandisnotvotedon
untilthegeneralelection.Write-incandidatesarenotrequiredtospecifyapartyaffiliation(or
payapartyassessment),nordotheyhavetopayafilingfeeorpayanelectionassessment.
Write-incandidatesarenotrequiredtofilepetitionssignedbyvoters.SOE’ssurveyedstated
thatwrite-incandidatesoftendropoutthedayaftertheprimaryelection,butthelinefor
voterstowrite-intheirnameremainsonthegeneralelectionballot.Somepartyleaders
surveyedopenlyindicatedthattheyhadusedwrite-incandidatestocloseprimariesandallow
onlytheirpartymemberstovoteintheprimaryelection.Forexample,inPalmBeachCounty,
acandidaterunningforcommissionerrecruitedhermothertorunasawrite-incandidate,
therebyclosingtheprimary.
Partycandidateswhosenamesappearontheballotmustpayfeesorcollecthundredsof
signatures.Write-insarerequiredonlytofilloutsomepaperwork.Theyfacefewpenaltiesfor
ignoringcampaignfinancelawsbecausefinesarebasedonapercentageofmoneyraised.
OneofLWF’sLegislativePrioritiesfor2017istoclosethe“write-inloophole”thereby
eliminating“ghostcandidates”.
Inthe2016FloridaPrimaryelection,write-incandidatesblockedfullvoterparticipationinsix
Senatedistrictsand14HousedistrictsontheAug.30primaryballot,disenfranchising1.6
millionvoters.Shrinkingthevoterpoolallowscandidatestotailormessagestotheextremes:
themostconservativeormostliberalvotersintheirparty.Theresultcouldmeanmore
lawmakersatthefarendsofthepoliticalspectrum.
PRO
▪ Becauseofthelackofcriteriaforwrite-incandidates,theirvalidityisinquestion.
▪ Itiseasyforwrite-incandidateswithfewrequirementsplacedonthemtowithdraw
fromtheraceaftertheprimary.Theircandidacythenservedtolimitwhoiseligibleto
voteinaparticularrace.
▪ Establishingwrite-incandidatecriteriaorguidelinescouldhelpminimizepolitical
manipulationbydeterringphantom"candidatesfromrunning
▪ TherearecurrentlynorequirementsinFloridatobecomeawrite-incandidate(no
fees,nosignaturescollected,nolistofqualifications,nocampaigning,nospecifyingof
partyaffiliation,andnopenaltyfordroppingoutatthelastmoment).
▪ SOE’sbecauseofelectionlawtimeframesarenotabletotakewrite-incandidateswho
dropoutoftheraceoffofthegeneralelectionballot.
▪ Woulddecreasevoterdisenfranchisementandincreasevoterparticipation,giving
allvotersachancetoinfluenceraceoutcomes
▪ Wouldenhancevoterconfidenceandtrustinthevotingprocess
CON
▪ Partyleadersusetheexistingwrite-insysteminselectingandpromotingtheir
candidatesintheprimary.
▪ Imposingthresholdcriteriacouldinhibitcandidatesfromapplyingandrunningfor
officethatmaylimitvoterchoice
Consensusstatement:Thresholdcriteriashouldbeestablishedforwrite-incandidates
thatmorecloselymirrorcurrentrequirementsforannouncedcandidates
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
6.Aloneorincombination,thereareotherfactorsthatmayimprovevoterturnoutin
primaries.Theseare:
6A.Consensusstatement:Automaticregistrationofeligiblevotersatage18byan
appropriategovernmentagencyDiscussion:
TheBrennanCenterforJusticehasadvocatedforautomatic,permanentvoterregistrationat
age18whenanindividualinteractswithagovernmentagency.AccordingtoPewResearch
25%ofeligiblevotersarenotinthesystem.PriortoMarch2015nostatehadimplemented
automaticvoterregistration.AsofJuly2016fivestatesfeatureautomaticregistration.The
BrennanCenteroutlinesfourstepstoimplementthismethod.
• First,itrequiresstatestoadoptelectronicsystemsandtakeresponsibilityfor
registeringcitizenssotheyareautomaticallyaddedtothevoterrollswhenthey
interactwithgovernmentagencies.
• Second,itmakessurethatoncecitizensaresignedup,theyremainregisteredwhen
theymovewithintheirstates.
• Third,itallowscitizenstoregistertovoteonline.
• Finally,itgivespeopletheopportunitytoregisterorupdatetheirinformationatthe
polls.
Nation-widenearlyeverystateandtheDistrictofColumbiahavependinglegislationto
implementautomatic,permanentvoterregistration.Aspartofvoterregistration
modernization,FloridahasimplementedelectronicregistrationatDepartmentofMotor
Vehicles(DMV)andportabilityofregistration.In2017onlinevoterregistrationwillbeadded.
Gettingpeopleregisteredtovoteisonestepintherightdirection.Itmustbecoupledwith
othermethodstoactuallyachieveincreasedturnoutduetothemyriadreasonsforlow
turnout.VisitthelinkbelowforaBPCsummaryofresultsofautomaticvoterregistration.
http://www.brennancenter.org/analysis/voter-registration-modernization-states
PRO
▪ Statesthathavemodernizedregistrationhavesavedmoney
▪ Electronictransmissionofvoterregistrationsincreasesregistrationrates
▪ Electronicregistrationreduceserrorsbyeliminatingpaperregistrationforms
▪ FloridaalreadyprovidesregistrationatDMVlocations
▪ AutomaticVoterRegistrationisonemoresteptomodernizeelectionsinFlorida
CON
▪ Doesn’tnecessarilymeanelectionturnoutwillincrease
▪ Electronicregistrationmaybevulnerabletofraud
▪ Electronicregistrationmaybevulnerabletohacking
Consensusstatement:Automaticregistrationofeligiblevotersatage18byan
appropriategovernmentagency
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
6B.ConsensusStatement:ExclusiveVoteByMail
Discussion:Exclusivevotebymail(EVBM)existsinthreestates:Oregon,Washington,and
Colorado.ColoradoandOregonwereamongthetop10turnoutstatesinthe2014election.
WashingtonStatewas#18inturnout.A2007studybyWashingtonStateshowedthat
turnoutincreasedby5percent.Thereare19otherstatesthathavevotebymailbutitisnot
theonlywaytovote.Non-ProfitVote.orgprovidedthePROargumentsshownbelow.The
AmericanEnterpriseInstituteprovidedtheCONargumentsshownbelow.AEIisnot
suggestingthatfraudandcoercionaremajorproblems,juststatingthattheopportunity
exists.TheFloridaAssociationofSupervisorsofElectionsfavorsColorado’sprocess,which
givesvoterstheoptiontomailinyourballot,dropitoffattheSOE,oractuallyputitthrougha
votingmachineatSOE.
PRO
▪ BoostsRegisteredVoterturnout
▪ RendersmootthedebateaboutphotoIDs
▪ Eliminatesvotinglines
▪ Givesvoterstimetocastamoreinformed,completeballot
▪ Saves$2-$5perregisteredvoterinelectioncosts
▪ Oregon’sexclusivevotebymailsystemhasbuiltinfeaturestomitigatepotentialfraud
andcoercion(Studycommitteeinput)
CON–
▪
Themostlikelyavenueforvoterfraudisabsenteeballoting,whichoffersmore
opportunitiesforfraudthanthetraditionalpollingplace
▪
Absenteeballotsleaveopenthepossibilityofvotercoercion
▪ Votersmaymissoutonimportantpre-electionnewsiftheyvoteearly
▪ Maydisenfranchisevoterswhopreferearlyvotinganddon’ttrustvote-by-mail
ConsensusStatement:ExclusiveVoteByMail
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
6C.ConsensusStatement:Makeelectionvotingportablewithinthecounty-similarto
earlyvotingcenters.
Discussion:VoteCenterswouldallowvoterstogotoanycentertovote.Thecenterswould
beplacedinhightrafficareasnearhomes,schools,workplacesasiscurrentlydonewithearly
votinginFlorida.Voterswouldnolongerhavetorememberwheretheirpollingprecinctwas
located.WithInternetconnectivityandportable“electronicpollbooks”electionworkerscan
verifyvoterregistration,printthecorrectballot,andconfirmthatavoterhadnotvoted
elsewhere.TheNationalConferenceofStateLegislatures(NCSL)liststhreeadvantages:
convenience,costreduction,andincreasedvoterturnout.TheNCSLalsohighlightsfour
potentialissues:lossoftradition,votereducation,equipment,andtechnology.Noneofthe
issuesappeartobeinsurmountable.However,eachstatewouldhavetoassessthecostto
implementvotecenters.Since200311stateshaveimplementedvotecenters.BillCowles,SOE
forOrangeCountystatedthattheAssociationofSupervisorsofElectionscameoutinfavorof
VoteCentersonElectionDay.Theyalsowereinfavorofincreasingthenumbersofvoting
centers.
PRO
▪ Eliminatestheproblemoffindingtherightprecincttocastaballot
▪ Reducestheneedforsomeprovisionalballots.
▪ Allowsvoterstochangeaddressesonelectiondayandstillvotearegularballot.
▪ Willultimatelysavecountiesmoney
▪ Mayimprovevoterturnoutduetoconvenienceoflocationsvswherepeoplelive
CON
▪ Precinctvotingworks
▪ Maynotimprovevoterturnout
ConsensusStatement:Makeelectionvotingportablewithinthecountysimilartoearly
votingcenters.
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
6D.Consensusstatement:StatewideElectionDay(sameday)Registration
Discussion:ElectionDayRegistration(EDR)existsin13statesandtheDistrictofColumbia
accordingtotheNationalConferenceofStateLegislatures(NCSL).Fouradditionalstateswill
beaddedin2017-2018.Floridaelectionregistrationbooksclose29dayspriortoanelection.
ThecurrentStudyandAction2015-2017positionis"RegistervotersasclosetoElectionDay
asadministrativelyfeasible."The2017Leaguelegislativeprioritiesstates“Supportlegislation
toreducefrom29daysto19daysthetimevoterregistrationbooksmustbeclosedbefore
eachelection.”AccordingtoNonProfitVoteinthe2014election7ofthe10highestturnout
statesfeaturedEDR.Floridawasranked#16in2014turnoutwithoutEDR.Expertsand
advocatesfavorEDRasanactionwithpotentialtoincreasevoterturnout.
PRO
▪ ExpertsandadvocatesinterviewedforthisstudyagreethatEDRcanimproveturnout
▪ TheMillennialsurveyyieldeda70%approvalforEDR
▪ Reducesneedforprovisionalballots
▪
▪
▪
CON
▪
▪
▪
▪
▪
Helpscorrecterrorsinregistrationthatwouldprecludevoting
Removesthe29dayspriortoElectionDayregistrationdeadline
Helpsmobile,lowerincome,young,andvotersofcolor
SupervisorsofElectionsseeissueswithimplementingEDRduetotheadministrative
burdenofmaintainingvoterrollsthatadheretoFlorida’selectionlaw.Thereisalsothe
potentialforlonglinesonElectionDay.
OpponentssaythatthereisnowaytoconfirmonElectionDaywhetherapersonvoted
inanotherstate
OpponentssaythereisnowayonElectionDaytocheckfeloneligibilitytovote
ExpandingearlyvotingmighthavethesameeffectasEDR
OnlineregistrationbeginsinFloridain2017
Consensusstatement:StatewideElectionDay(sameday)Registration
□ Agree
□ Disagree
□ NoOpinion
Comments:
APPENDIX
AlternativeElectionSystemsAnalyses
Thissectiondocumentsadetailedanalysisofselectedelectiontypestodetermineif
voterturnoutcanbeimprovedbyreplacingthecurrentclosedprimarywithanothertype.
MultiplestateleagueshaveanalyzedprimaryelectiontypesfromaPRO/CONperspective.
ThisanalysisexaminesprimaryelectionsfromaFACTversusExpertOPINIONbasis.The
VoterTurnoutAnalysissectionofthisreportinvestigatedreasonsforlowvoterturnoutand
possiblesolutionstoimproveturnout.Changingtheelectionsystemisoneofthepotential
solutionstoimprovingturnout.
ElectionSystemEvaluationCriteria
Atthebeginningofthestudy,otherstateleaguestudieswerereviewedtoassistin
establishingevaluationcriteriatoapplytoeachprimarytype.Inaddition,weconsideredthe
ImpossibilityTheorembyDr.KennethArrow.Heisrenownedforthedevelopmentofthe
theoremwithintheareaofvotingtheory.In1972,histheoremmadehimtheyoungestperson
evertobeawardedtheNobelPrizeineconomics.Histheorempostulatesthatnosingle
electionsystemmeetsallcriteria.Therearetradeoffsandconsequences.Therearechoicesto
bemade:Whatismostimportant?Whatislessimportant?Thestatestudycommitteechose
thefollowingcriteria.
● Majorityrule–Doesthesystemachieveelectionresultsdeterminedbyalarge
percentageofvotescast?Inclosedprimariesyouaresignificantlyreducingthenumber
ofvotescast.TopTwoandIRVbydesignleadtoaneventualhead-to-headcompetition
tochooseamajoritywinner.TopTworealizesamajoritywinnerinthegeneral
election.IRVachievesamajoritywinnerbycountingonlyvotescastinaroundwherea
candidateachieves50%+1votes
● CompetitiveElections–Doesthesystemencouragenonbiased,competitiveelections
inwhichfewercandidatesrununopposed?Fairandcompetitiveelectionsarecritical
toaddressingandmeetingtheneedsofFloridians.Acompetitiveelectionperexperts
isdefinedasamarginof10%orlessbetweenthewinnerandlosers.
● Representationthatreflectscommunitydemographics–Doesthesystemworkto
ensurethatFlorida’sdiversepopulation(Latinosmakeup14.9%ofthestate’s12
millionactiveregisteredvotersandAfricanAmericansrepresent13.3%ofregistered
voters)isrepresented?Anybarrierstopreventcertainsegmentsofthepopulation
fromvotingneedstoberemoved.
● Beverifiableandauditable–Doestheprocessprovideamechanismforelection
resultstobeverifiableauditable?Forvoterstotrusttheelectionsprocess,ballots
mustberecordedandretrievableforahandrecountsincloseraces.
● Besimpleandeasyforvoterstounderstand–Istheprocesssimpleandeasyfor
voterstounderstand?Aclosedprimaryistheleastcomplextounderstandandismost
familiartoFloridavoters.Otherelectionsystemsmayrequireeducationtohelpvoters
understandtheeffectsoftheircandidatechoices
● Minimizepoliticalmanipulation–Doesthesystemminimizepoliticalmanipulation?
Withover12millionregisteredvotersinFlorida,thevotingprocessshouldbesimple
andstraightforward.Selectedelectiontypesmayeliminatemanipulation.Universal
Primariesarecurrentlyvulnerabletothewrite-inloophole.SeeFloridaConstitution
ArticleVISection5(b).
● Betechnicallyandfiscallyfeasibletoimplement–Isthesystemtechnicallyand
fiscallyfeasibletoimplement?Alloftheelectionsystemsbeinganalyzedhavebeenin
useintheUnitedStates.Dependingontheequipmentinuseandtheelectionsystem
beingimplementedtherecanbeequipment,software,educationandmaintenance
costs
AnalysisofSpecificPrimaryElectionSystems
Thefollowingparagraphsexamineeachelectionsystembasedonanassessmentof
statementsasfactorexpertopinion.Toqualifyasafact,aqualifiedsourcemustconfirmthe
assessment.Universitystudies,non-profitnon-partisaninstitutionalresearch,articlesand
bookswrittenbyacknowledgedexperts,andinterviewsofexpertsareexamplesofqualified
sources.Afterfactsandexpertopinionswereestablishedeachelectiontypewascomparedto
thestudyevaluationcriteria.
ClosedPrimaryIngeneral,avoterseekingtovoteinaclosedprimarymustfirstbea
registeredpartymember.Typically,thevoteraffiliateswithapartyonhisorhervoter
registrationapplication.Thissystemdeters“cross-over”votingbymembersofother
parties.Independentorunaffiliatedvoters,bydefinition,areexcludedfromparticipating
inthepartynominationcontests.
Delaware
Nevada
FloridaNewMexico
Kentucky
NewYork
Maryland
Oregon*
Pennsylvania
Facts
AccordingtotheNCSLandFloridaDivisionofElectionspoliticalpartieschoosetheir
nomineetocompeteingeneralelection.Votersmustberegisteredmembersoftheparty
holdingtheprimary.
*Oregonconsidersitselfapartiallyclosedprimarywherethepartycanchoosetoopen
theirprimarytounaffiliatedvoters.OregonstatuteChapter254section254.365requires
amajorpartytodeclaretheirprimaryopen90dayspriortoelectionday
Politicalpartynomineeguaranteedaplaceonthegeneralelectionballot
Over3.4MillionNPAandminorpartyvoterscannotvoteinapartisanprimary
Taxpayerspayforprivatepartyprimariestheycan’tparticipateinunlessregisteringina
party
AccordingtoNCSLclosedprimariesgenerallycontributetoastrongpartyorganization.
FloridaDivisionofElectionsdatashowsaverageturnoutfrom2000–2016=<23%
NPAvotersandMinorpartiescanparticipateinGeneralElection
71%of2012openprimarystateshadhigherturnoutthanFlorida(USElectionsProject)
76%of2016openprimarystateshadhigherturnoutthanFlorida(USElectionsProject)
ExpertOpinions
AccordingtoFloridaDivisionofElectionsdatalessthan7percentofelectionsare
competitiveminimizingcompetitionforincumbentseats
ContinuesspoilereffectingeneralelectionWrite-incandidateloophole;(2014Election
ScottversusCristversusAdrianWyllie)
OpentoUnaffiliatedVotersPrimaryAnumberofstatesallowonlyunaffiliatedvoters
toparticipateinanypartyprimarytheychoose,butdonotallowvoterswhoare
registeredwithonepartytovoteinanotherparty’sprimary.Thissystemdiffersfroma
trueopenprimarybecauseaDemocratcannotcrossoverandvoteinaRepublicanparty
primary,orviceversa.Someofthesestates,suchasColoradoandNewHampshire,
requirethatunaffiliatedvotersdeclareaffiliationwithapartyatthepollsinordertovote
inthatparty’sprimary.(NCSL)
Arizona
Massachusetts
Colorado
NewHampshire
KansasNewJersey Maine RhodeIsland WestVirginia
Facts
9statesfeaturethisprimarytype
Requiresavotertoselectapartyballot
Excludesmembersofotherparties(345,000registeredvoters)
Includes3.1millionNPAvoters
Doesnotallowcrossovervotingbycontest
Over70%ofMillennialsfavoranopenprimarythatallowsvoterstoselectcandidates
regardlessofpartyaffiliation
ExpertOpinions
TheCenterforElectionSciencestatesthatpartiallyopenprimariesdon’tgetattheissue,
whichisvotersdon’thaverealchoicesinthegeneralelection,andtheydon’thavean
effectivemeansofvotingbecauseweusepluralityvoting.
34%ofMillennialsthatrespondedtowhytheyselectedNPAsaidtheydidn’twanttojoin
aparty.54%saidtheywantedtochooseanycandidate
OpenPrimaryIngeneral,butnotalways,statesthatdonotaskvoterstochooseparties
onthevoterregistrationformare“openprimary”states.Inanopenprimary,votersmay
chooseprivatelyinwhichprimarytovote.Inotherwords,votersmaychoosewhich
party’sballottovote,butthisdecisionisprivateanddoesnotregisterthevoterwiththat
party.Thispermitsavotertocastavoteacrosspartylinesfortheprimaryelection.
Alabama
Michigan
Arkansas
Minnesota
Georgia
Mississippi
HawaiiMissouri
Montana
Vermont
NorthDakotaVirginia
SouthCarolina
Wisconsin
Texas Facts
15statesfeatureopenprimaries
Requiresselectionofapartyballot
AccordingtoNCSLvotersmaychoosewhichprimarytovoteinprivately.Theballot
choicedoesnotregisterthevoterwiththeparty.
Doesnotallowcrossovervotingbycontest
Over70%ofMillennialsfavoranopenprimarythatallowsvoterstoselectcandidates
regardlessofpartyaffiliation
BasedontheNCSLdefinitionofanOpenPrimarythiselectiontypesupportsuseina
presidentialprimarygiventhatallvotersmayparticipate.
ExpertOpinions
CenterforElectionSciencestatesthatopenprimariesdon’tgetattheissue,whichis
votersdon’thaverealchoicesinthegeneralelection,andtheydon’thaveaneffective
meansofvotingbecauseweusepluralityvoting
Criticsarguethattheopenprimarydilutestheparties’abilitytonominate.
Supporterssaythissystemgivesvotersmaximalflexibility—allowingthemtocrossparty
lines—andmaintainstheirprivacy
TopTwoOpenPrimaryThe“toptwo”formatusesacommonballot,listingall
candidatesonthesameballot.InCaliforniaandLouisiana,eachcandidatelistshisorher
partyaffiliation,whereasinWashington,eachcandidateisauthorizedtolistaparty
“preference.”Thetoptwovotegettersineachrace,regardlessofparty,advancetothe
generalelection.Advocatesofthe"top-two"formatarguethatitincreasesthelikelihood
ofmoderatecandidatesadvancingtothegeneralelectionballot.Opponentsmaintainthat
itreducesvoterchoicebymakingitpossiblefortwocandidatesofthesamepartytoface
offinthegeneralelection.Theyalsocontendthatitistiltedagainstminorpartieswho
willfaceslimoddsofearningoneofonlytwospotsonthegeneralelectionballot.
California
Louisiana
Nebraska(fornonpartisanlegislativeracesonly
WashingtonState
Facts
Allcandidatesineachcontestappearononeballot.Votersmayselectcandidates
regardlessofpartyaffiliationofboththecandidateandthevoter.Thetoptwovote
gettersadvancetothegeneralelectionregardlessofparty.
Allowscrossovervotingcontestbycontest
Typically,racesforGovernor,cabinetofficers,statelegislativeoffices,andU.S.
congressionalofficesareincludedinTopTwo
InWashingtonStateacandidatemustreceive1%ofprimaryvotescasttoadvancetothe
generalelection
Californiahascompleted3TopTwoelections(2012,2014,2016)WashingtonStatehas
completed5TopTwoelectionsstartingin2008
TopTwoisnotsuitableforPresidentialPrimariesbecausethereisnodownselecttoone
candidateprovisiontoadvancetotheGeneralElection.
ExpertOpinions
TheNovember2016electionmarkedthethirdoutingforCalifornia’s"toptwo”primary
system.Thetwocandidateswhoadvancetothefallelectioncanbe—andoftenare—from
thesameparty.InCaliforniathemostvisibleexamplethisyearwastheUSSenaterace
betweenDemocratsKamalaHarrisandLorettaSanchez.Itwasthefirststatewidesamepartyrace,andmanydidnotknowwhattoexpect.Therewerealso27down-ballot
same-partyracesinthiscycle,inlinewith25in2014and28in2012.Theseraces
continuetobealotcloserthancross-partycontests:thisyear,anaverageof32points
separatedthecandidatesincross-partyraces,comparedto25pointsforcandidatesof
thesameparty.Aboutaquarterofthisyear’ssame-partyracesweredecidedbylessthan
10points,alsosimilartopreviousyears.(PublicPolicyInstituteofCalifornia(PPIC)Eric
McGhee)
The2016CaliforniaprimaryofferedsignsofimprovementforCalifornia’slowvoter
turnout.Recentelectionshaveseensomeoftheworstturnoutinthestate’shistory.The
2014electioncyclewasparticularlydismal,but2012alsosetanewlowfora
presidentialprimaryelection.Moreover,Californiahasbeenlaggingbehindotherstates
inbothregistrationandturnout.However,therehasbeenalargesurgeinnew
registrantsoverthelastfewmonthspriortotheJuneprimary,andtheCalifornia
SecretaryofStatecurrentlyestimatesthatalmost9millionCaliforniansparticipatedin
the2016presidentialprimaryelection,comparedtoonly4.5millionin2014and5.3
millionin2012.(PPICEricMcGhee)
AgrowingshareofCaliforniavoterswhoparticipateinpresidentialelectionsdonotvote
inthegubernatorialelectiontwoyearslater.Thelasttwoelectioncycles—whichhave
seenexceptionallyhighpresidentialturnoutandexceptionallylowmidtermturnout—
havenotdepartedfromthispatternbutexemplifiedit.Thisindicatestheremaybeother
reasonsforincreasedordecreasedvoterturnoutthanthe“toptwo”primary.(PPICEric
McGhee)
AccordingtoEricMcGhee(PPIC)CaliforniaTopTwosame-partyraceswereinpart
expectedtopromotecompetitionbetweenmoderateandliberal/conservative
candidates.ThereissomeevidencethatthisdynamicontheDemocraticsideisbeginning
toemerge;noneontheRepublicanside.
InstantRunoffVotingGeneralElection(NoPrimary)Thiselectiontypeisnotdefined
byNCSL.BallotpediaandtheOxfordDictionarydefineIRV.InanIRVsystem,votersrank
candidatesinorderofpreference.Ifnocandidatereceivesanoverallmajorityoffirst
preferences,thecandidateswiththefewestvotesareeliminatedonebyoneandtheir
votesaretransferredaccordingtotheirsecondandthirdpreferences(andsoon)and
thenallvotesareretallied,untilonecandidateachievesamajority(Nostates)
BerkeleyCA2010 OaklandCA2010 SanFranciscoCA2004
SanLeandroCA2010
TellurideCO2011 PortlandME2011
TakomaParkMD2007
MinneapolisMN2009
StPaulMN2011
SantaFeNM2016 HendersonNC2008
Facts
3.4MillionNPAandMinorPartyvoterscanvote
IRVeliminatestheprimaryelection
Allowscrossovervotingcontestbycontest
Givesvotersawaytoexpressstrongsupportofcandidatesviarankordering
Willrequiredetailedvotereducation
Can’tguaranteemajorityvoteduetoballotexhaustion
Willrequireenactinglegislationasaminimum
Eliminates“spoiler”effectandstrategicvoting&minoritywinners
EliminatesUniversalPrimarywriteincandidateeffect
Eliminatesneedforactualrunoffelections
Round1thirdplacecandidatecanbeatRound1firstplacecandidateinfinalvotecount
Arkansas,Alabama,LouisianaandSouthCarolinauseinstantrunoffsformilitaryand
overseasvoters,whosendintheirinstantrunoffballotwiththeirprimaryballot
MainepassedIRVin2016election
IRV(RankedChoice)hasbeenusedinAustraliasince1914
Lowerscostsofelectionsduetoeliminationofprimariesandrunoffelections(Excluding
initialcostofequipment/softwareandinitialvotereducation)
ExpertOpinions
Turnoutiscomplexandrequiresmultiplechangestoincreaseturnout--changingtoany
primaryelectionsystemalonewon’tdoit
AccordingtoFloridavotingmachinevendorDominionSystems,IRVwillrequiremachine
upgradesorreplacement
Mayincreasevoterturnoutnumbers
Mayloweroverallcandidatecampaigncosts
MarginallyImprovesminorpartycandidatechancesofelectionbutmaypavewaytouse
proportionalrepresentation
Cansuppressturnoutbecauseofnotdoingthehomeworktorankmultiplecandidates
Canelectextremistcandidate
Increasingnumberofrankedchoicescanreduceballotexhaustion
StudyshowsthatIRVversusPluralityvotingdecreasesnegativecampaigning
Processtoocomplicatedandmayconfusevoters
Electingcandidateswiththebroadestacceptance
StudyEvaluationCriteriaAnalysis
Criteria
Closed
Open
Open TopTwo
Unaffiliated
IRV*
Simple&EasytoUnderstand
YES
YES
YES
YES
NO
Verifiable&Auditable
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES
Fosterscompetition
NO
NO
NO
NO
YES
Minimizespoliticalmanipulation
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
Representsdemographics
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
Technically&fiscallyfeasible
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES/??
Winnerachievesmajorityvote
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
*In2007theLeagueaddedanElectionLawpositionthatreadsasfollows:“Recommended
instantrunoffvotingasanalternativetoFlorida’spresentsystemofpluralityvoting”.
TheIRVfiscallyfeasibleassessmentof??indicatesthatcostisinvolvedbutwasnotpartof
thisstudy.
SimpleandEasytoUnderstand:OpenUnaffiliatedPrimariesonlyallowNPAstoparticipate.
Insomestatestheymayhavetodeclareapartyaffiliation.Openprimariesdon’trequire
voterstodeclareapartyaffiliation.
TopTwodoesn’trequireapartychangetovotenorhavetochooseaballot.
TheMinneapolisLWVfoundthat“educatingvotersaboutafundamentalchange(IRV)in
votingmethodappeareddifficultbutnotimpossibleaccordingtoalmostalloftheelection
officialsandadministratorsinterviewed.”Otherauthorsdisagreeandfindthateducating
votersisverydifficultandrequiresfrequentrefreshereducating
Verifiable&Auditable:AccordingtotheFloridaDivisionofElectionsTestingand
Certificationgroupallelectionsystemsareverifiableandauditable
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/693718/dsde101.pdfhttp://dos.myflorida.com/media/693
718/dsde101.pdf
FostersCompetition:Allopenprimariesrequirevoterstochooseoneparty’sballot.They
canonlyvoteforcandidatesofthepartytheychoose.
TopTwoandIRVfeatureoneballotwithallcandidatescompetingregardlessofpolitical
affiliation.
TheTopTwoprimarysystemprovidestheopportunityforcompetitionbutactualvotingmay
ormaynotresultincompetitiveraces.AccordingtoEricMcGheeInthe2016CaliforniaTop
Twoprimary,“Aboutaquarterofthisyearssamepartyracesweredecidedbylessthan10
pointsalsosimilartopreviousyears.”Hecommentedfurtherthatincrosspartyracesthe
narrowmarginwinners(<10points)havedecreasedfrom18%in2012;to15%in2014;and
to11%in2016.
TheStanfordSocialInterventionReviewstudiedfourIRVcases(Oakland10candidates)(San
Francisco(16candidates)(SanLeandro5candidates)(PierceCountyWAwasthefourthbut
droppedIRVafteroneyear)
Minimizespoliticalmanipulation:Allopenprimariesarevulnerabletothewrite-in
loophole.FloridaConstitutionArticleVISection5(b)Awrite-incandidatefortheGeneral
Electionclosestheprimaryandonlypartyregisteredvotersmayparticipateintheprimary.
Adoptingstringentwrite-instandardswouldclosetheloophole.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-write-in-candidate-lawsuit-20160805story.html
BasedonWashingtonStateandCaliforniaTopTwolaw,write-incandidatescannotskipthe
primarytoadvancetothegeneralelection.ThereisnoprimaryinIRV.
AccordingtoJamesLanganoftheWilliam&MaryLawReview“perhapstheclearest
justificationforadoptinganinstantrunoffvotingsystemisitsabilitytoeliminatewhatmany
viewasthespoilerproblem”.
RepresentsDemographics:Havingtochooseapartyballotmeansthatanopenunaffiliated
primarydoesnotreachallvoters.Minorpartyvotersareexcludedinthiscase.Florida’s
closedprimaryturnoutaverages<23%meaningthat77%ofregisteredvotersaren’tcounted.
Additionally,onlypartymemberscanvote.Inanopen(toallvoters)NPAandminorparty
votershavetopickapartyballotinopenprimariesbutthose3.4millionregisteredvoters
haveachoice.
TopTwoandIRVprovideoneballotforallvoterstochooseanycandidate.
TechnicallyandFiscallyFeasible:Openprimaryelectionshaveexistedfordecades;
equipmentinplacetodaycanworkwithallopenprimaries
TopTwoexistsinfourstatesandrequiresnoequipmentorsoftwarechange.
IRVexistsin11citiesandwasapprovedbyMainevotersinthe2016election.Accordingto
DominionSystems(Floridavotingmachinevendor),IRVwillrequireequipmentandsoftware
investmenttomachinescoreballots.TheYES/??AssessmentofIRVindicatestechnical
feasibilitybutunknownfiscalfeasibility.
WinnerAchievesMajorityVote:Inopenprimariesvotersmustchooseapartyballot.
Wheneveryouexcludepeoplefromvoting,individualswithnopartyaffiliationorare
membersofaminorpartyacandidatecannotachieveamajorityofvoters.
TopTwoandIRVbydesignleadtoaneventualhead-to-headcompetitiontochooseamajority
winner.ATopTwoprimaryrealizesamajoritywinnerinthegeneralelection.IRVachievesa
majoritywinnerbyconsideringonlyvotescastinaroundwhereonecandidatereceivesa
majorityvote