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Machina Research
アドバイザリサービスのご案内
1.Machina Research アドバイザリサービスの概要
Machina ResearchはM2M、IoT (モノのインターネット)、モバイルブロードバンド市場に関する戦略的アドバイス
を世界の主要企業に提供しています。
Machina Researchはアドバイザリサービス（年間サービス）を中心に情報を提供し、顧客をサポートします。主
な提供情報は下記の通りです。
・
予測データベース – 随時アップデートされているM2Mと世界の54ヶ国におけるモバイルブロードバン
ドの動向に関する予測データ
・
戦略レポート – 複数のセクターにおけるM2Mの動向を特集した4つのレポート
・
セクターレポート –自動車や医療など、13のセクターを定性的・定量的に分析・調査したレポートを毎
年出版
・
リサーチノート – 世界のM2M市場における主要課題を調査しています。月3冊発行のブリーフレポー
ト
・
戦略セッション – オンサイトのプレゼンテーション
・
・
アナリストへの質問 – Machina Researchのアナリストチームへ直接質問できます。
過去の発行レポート - アドバイザリサービスご契約者は過去に発行された全レポートを閲覧すること
ができます。
アドバイザリサービスに加え、Machina Researchではカスタム調査も頻繁に行っています。
1
1.1 予測データベース
Machina Researchの予測データベースは図1-1にある通り、13のセクターにわたるM2Mとモバイルブロードバ
ンド市場に関する広範な予測を提供しています。
Machina Research のアドバイザリサービスの購読者は、全13セクターに関する予測データの全てにアクセス
できます。関連レポートはほぼ全てのセクターをカバーしています。セクターレポートの出版前でも、アドバイザ
リサービスのご契約者には全ての予測データをご利用いただけます。
図1-1 Machina Researchの13のセクター
各セクターにおける複数のアプリケーショングループについて、世界201ヶ国、6地域、10年間の市場予測が
提供されます。図1-2にある通り、8つのアプリケーションに分かれ、更にその各アプリケーション毎に複数の
下位アプリケーションを分析しています。例を挙げますと、医療セクターの場合、 “Assisted Living”の予測は5
種の異なるアプリケーションをカバーしています。また、ユーティリティセクターを例に挙げると、ここでは、スマ
ートメータ、電気自動車充電、輸送＆流通管理、計3種のアプリケーショングループについて、各々のデータ
が含まれています。
図1-2 医療セクターにおけるアプリケーション
現在Machina Researchの予測データベースは、数百のアプリケーションの分析を基に61種のアプリケーション
グループを対象としています。予測データベースには、数百万ものデータポイントを含んでいます。
2
各アプリケーショングループについては、多様な機器、接続、そして技術毎（2G、3G、4G※、短距離、MAN、固
定WAN、衛星）のトラフィックに関する予測を提供しています。また、モバイルトラフィックの総収益も予測してい
ます。
※セルラートラフィックは技術毎ではブレークダウンされていません。Machina Researchの予測は全世代の技術
のセルラートラフィックを単純に合計しています。
予測データベースはウェブインターフェース経由でExcelフォーマットで提供されます。13のセクターと61のアプ
リケーショングループの詳しい定義と予測メトリクスの定義については、データリソースまでお問い合わせくださ
い。
Figure 1‐1: Forecast Database dashboard 1.2
レポートとリサーチノート
1.2.1
レポート
Machina Researchのサービスは、3タイプのレポートに分かれています。
・戦略レポート：
M2M市場に限定した戦略レポートです。2014年は6冊の戦略レポートを出版
予定です。
今後出版されるレポートには下記トピックがカバーされる予定です。
・
ウェアラブル
・
SLAとM2Mサービスメトリクス
・
M2Mのセキュリティとプライバシー
・
M2M用途分析の複雑性
・
M2M向け市場への販路
・
CSPベンチマーキングのアップデート
3
・
セクターレポート：セクターレポートは、13の各セクターについて、M2M通信の新たな可能性を
定性的および定量的に分析しています。このレポートには、成長促進要因と阻害要因の分析、
セクター毎の各アプリケーショングループに関する詳細な分析などが含まれています。2014年は
全13のセクターレポートをアップデートする予定です。
・
世界の予測レポート (Global Forecast Report) :予測データベース内のデータを用いて主要成長
用途、収益機会、アドレス可能な市場全体の詳細な分析など、世界の接続機器の全体市場を
解説しています。
1.2.2 リサーチノート
リサーチノートは、特定の課題、企業、あるいはアプリケーションを詳細に取り上げている、比較的短い
（通常1500-2500文字）レポートです。また、最新の重要な出来事についてコメントしています。
1.3
過去レポートライブラリ
過去に発行されたMachina Researchのレポートは、ご購読期間中は全て閲覧可能です。
1.4
戦略セッション
顧客とMachina Researchのアナリストが直接ディスカッションすることができます。戦略セッションは、契約中の
サービスの範囲内もしくは密接に関連した内容で顧客の希望テーマについて、顧客企業内でプレゼンテーショ
ンを行います。
1.5
アナリストへの質問
顧客はM2Mに関するレポート等の内容や関連トピックについて、直接アナリストへ問い合わせすることもできま
す。レポート内容についての説明や関連する内容の最新情報、M2Mやモバイルブロードバンドに関する様々
な問題についてアナリストとしての意見を聞きたい時などにご利用いただけます。アナリストへの質問サービス
は時間無制限ですが、一回の質問に対しては最長1時間の時間制限を設けています。質問内容によっては、
カスタム調査が適切な場合もありますが、その場合には随時ご相談させていただきます。
1.6
カスタム調査とコンサルティング
Machina Researchのアナリストは市場規模、競合のベンチマーキング、市場参入戦略や販売支援、マーケティ
ング/販促、白書、適正評価などのテーマについて、顧客のニーズに合わせたコンサルティングサービスとカス
タム調査を提供しています。年間サービスの購読者には、割引が適用されます。
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2. 予測データベースの内容
Table 2‐1: Machina Research sector definitions and application groups Sector
Agriculture environment
Definition
& Applications and services related to various forms of primary industry (excluding mining and quarrying). Includes crop and livestock management and fishing.
Automotive
Applications and services using a vehicle platform or after‐market device providing connected services used by the driver or provider of third‐party services. It excluded supply chain applications which are considered elsewhere. It excludes the use of handsets, laptops or other devices within cars to access the same services.
Construction
Covers all types of applications related to building (and infrastructure) construction, including work undertaken by major construction firms and sole traders
Consumer electronics
All types of M2M connected consumer electronics, so excluding PCs, tablets and mobile handsets. Home network infrastructure is included in Intelligent Buildings. Consumer healthcare devices are included in Healthcare.
Emergency Personal devices carried by emergency services services & personnel. Does not include connected vehicles (included national security
in Automotive) or field healthcare (included in Healthcare). Also National defence applications.
Healthcare
All applications related to healthcare, including consumer health monitoring for the worried well, through to clinical environments and clinical remote monitoring of post‐
diagnosis patients.
Application groups
Environmental monitoring; fishing (including fish farming, coastal fishing and deep sea fishing); land agriculture; and new energy sources.
Vehicle platform; security & tracking (e.g. stolen vehicle recovery); emergency assistance (e.g. eCall); vehicle recovery/ roadside assistance; entertainment and internet access; navigation; voice (where provided via an OEM concierge service); insurance (in the form of pay‐as‐you‐drive insurance); lease, rental, HP and share car management; and manufacturer data (i.e. vehicle diagnostics).
Equipment monitoring (inventory management and usage monitoring); on‐site visualisation (or architect, and other, plans); and site monitoring (alarms and CCTV).
Audio visual displays; audio visual sources; household information devices; network equipment; personal multimedia; tracking applications; white goods; and other.
Defence; emergency services; and homeland security.
Assisted living; clinical remote monitoring; clinical trials; connected medical environments; first responder connectivity; telemedicine; worried well – personal monitoring; and worried well – remote monitoring.
Intelligent All aspects of building automation and monitoring, Building automations; micro‐generation; and buildings
including HVAC, central controllers, control panels, power security.
management and alarm systems.
Manufacturing Deals with all aspects of the manufacturing supply chain Extraction; manufacturing/processing; and supply chain
from the extraction of coal, gas, oil and minerals, through transport & distribution; vending machines; transportation and manufacturing of all products to and warehousing/storage.
warehousing and sale through vending machines. Sale through traditional retail is covered in the ‘retail & leisure’ category.
Retail & leisure
Covers use of connected devices in a retail context, Access control; consumer applications; including shop‐floor equipment for both staff and goods monitoring and payment; and sector customers, and a range of sector‐specific applications specific applications.
(ranging from waitress order‐taking devices to slot machines, and including ATMs).
PCs, tablets & Includes mobile data services for the three types of Handset; PC/laptop; Tablet
handset data
personal communications devices used for packet‐
switched data access, i.e. handset, PC/laptop and tablet. It includes other mobile broadband connections such as PC back‐up and WWAN/WiFi home hubs. This category is excluded from this report as it is not pure M2M.
Smart cities & Connections to public transport systems (vehicles and Digital billboards; environment and public transportation
management/information devices), all aspects of traffic safety (which mostly comprises CCTV); public management (including congestion tolls and car parking), transport; and traffic management.
and connectivity to other street equipment such as CCTV and digital signs.
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Sector
Definition
Smart enterprise The use of connected office equipment (e.g. faxes, management
photocopiers etc.) which are not specific to any particular vertical.
Utilities
Use of connectivity to manage utility (gas, electric & water) distribution networks and end‐points. Most prominent application is smart metering.
Application groups
Office equipment; and specialist equipment.
Electric vehicle charging; smart metering; and transport & distribution management (i.e. monitoring the utility distribution network).
Table 2‐2: Definitions for metrics used in Machina Research Forecast Database Metric Revenue Revenue (Device & Installation) Revenue (Device & Installation: Device) Revenue (Device & Installation: Device: Module) Revenue (Device & Installation: Device: Non‐Module) Revenue (Device & Installation: Installation) Revenue (Service) Revenue (Service: Wrap) Revenue (Service: Service Enablement Platform) Revenue (Service: Connectivity) Revenue (Service: Connectivity: Connectivity Support Platform) Revenue (Service: Connectivity: Mobile network traffic) Revenue (Service: Connectivity: Non‐Mobile network traffic) Connected devices Revenue generating units (RGUs) MNO addressable revenue MNO Addressable Revenue (Device & Installation) MNO Addressable Revenue (Service) MNO Expected revenue MNO Expected Revenue (Device & Installation) MNO Expected Revenue (Service) Traffic Definition Income from the sale of devices or services. Includes device costs where connectivity is integral, module costs where devices can optionally have connectivity enabled, monthly subscription, connectivity and traffic fees. The upfront component of Revenue accounted for by purchase of device and installation costs. The Device component of Revenue (Device & Installation) The communications module element of device costs. Actual cost where a standalone module is used, notional where communications elements of a device are integrated The non‐module element of total device cost The Installation component of Total Revenue (Device & Installation) The total of ongoing revenue components, including usage and subscription fees. The proportion of Total Revenue (Service) fees that corresponds to the actual application 'wrapped' around a connection. (Potentially) connectivity technology agnostic horizontal M2M platform components. Revenue corresponding to mobile connectivity. Mobile network specific horizontal platform components. The revenue accruing from the carriage of cellular traffic and is therefore guaranteed for MNOs. The revenue accruing from the carriage of cellular traffic such as satellite and certain municipal wireless networks. (to be introduced during 2013) M2M connected devices are defined by Machina Research as “connections to remote sensing, monitoring and actuating devices, together with associated aggregation devices”. Distinct from connected devices, this is the number of paying customers associated with the M2M connections. A subset of total revenue that is addressable by a mobile network operator. Device & Installation components of MNO addressable revenue Service components of MNO addressable revenue A subset of addressable revenue that Machina Research expects the MNO to achieve. Device & Installation components of MNO expected revenue Service components of MNO expected revenue The amount of network traffic created per annum by the associated revenue generating units. 6
Machina Research forecasts connections and traffic by technology. The following table provides a definition of each of the technologies that we forecast. Table 2‐3: Technology definitions used in Machina Research Forecast Database and reports Technology
2G
3G
4G
MAN
Satellite
Short‐range
Wide area fixed
Definition
Second
Generation
mobile connectivity.
Third
Generation
mobile connectivity.
Fourth
Generation
mobile connectivity.
Notes
This includes GSM (and extensions GPRS and EDGE) and
CDMA.
Comprises W-CDMA, CDMA 1x EVDO and a few other
similar technologies.
This comprises LTE (3GPP Long Term Evolution) and
WiMAX (802.16e and 802.16m). There is some controversy
about the definition of 4G today. Machina Research
recognises that technically LTE and WiMAX technologies
may not meet the ETSI definition of 4G, but for our
purposes they are considered to be so.
Metropolitan Area Comprises a range of medium-range technologies including
Network
powerline and community WiFi.
Two‐way connectivity Typically used only for niche applications and/or in remote
between a ground‐based parts of the world.
device and a satellite
Any local area network These connections are considered to also have a wide area
connection
including connection (either fixed or wireless) associated with them.
WiFi,
Zigbee
and In Machina Research’s reports there is no traffic registered
Ethernet.
under short-range. The traffic is measured only under the
associated wide-area network technology as appropriate.
Any
fixed
line The vast majority will be DSL or cable but may include
connection
including dedicated E1/T1 connections and similar.
PSTN, ISDN, Cable, DSL and fibre.
The following table provides a definition of the metrics that appear in our Low Power Wide Area forecasts. Table 2‐4: Definitions for metrics used in Machina Research LPWA Forecast Database Metric
Definition
RGUs Distinct from connected devices, this is the number of paying customers associated with the M2M connections. This RGUs figure is drawn from our core forecasts, and represents our forecast for RGUs in the absence of significant deployment of LPWA technologies. LPWA: Suitable RGUs Core forecast RGUs that are suitable for connection by LPWA technologies
LPWA: Adaptable RGUs Core forecast RGUs that can potentially be adapted so that they are suitable for connection by LPWA technologies LPWA: Unsuitable RGUs Core forecast RGUs that are not suitable for connection by LPWA technologies
Connections M2M connected devices are defined by Machina Research as “connections to remote sensing, monitoring and actuating devices, together with associated aggregation devices”. This Connections figure is drawn from our core forecasts, and represents our forecast for Connections in the absence of significant deployment of LPWA technologies. LPWA: Suitable connections Core forecast connections that are suitable for connection by LPWA technologies LPWA: Adaptable connections Core forecast connections that can potentially be adapted so that they are suitable for connection by LPWA technologies LPWA: Unsuitable connections Core forecast connections that are not suitable for connection by LPWA technologies LPWA: Unlocked market Additional connections that LPWA technologies might potentially unlock due to potential: Accelerated adoption acceleration of the adoption of M2M solutions. (connections) 7
Metric
Definition
LPWA: Unlocked market Additional connections that LPWA technologies might potentially unlock due to potential: Additional devices the addition of additional devices per M2M solution. (connections) LPWA: Unlocked market The sum of:
potential (connections) ‐ LPWA: Unlocked market potential: Accelerated adoption (connections) and ‐ LPWA: Unlocked market potential: Additional devices (connections) LPWA: Total opportunity The sum of:
(connections) ‐ LPWA: Suitable connections ‐ LPWA: Adaptable connections ‐ LPWA: Unlocked market potential (connections) LPWA: Non‐directly substitutive The difference between:
potential (connections) ‐ LPWA: Total opportunity (connections) ‐ LPWA: Suitable connections Therefore, the sum of: ‐ LPWA: Adaptable connections ‐ LPWA: Unlocked market potential (connections) LPWA: Suitable connections Gross additions corresponding to core forecast connections that are suitable (gross additions) for connection by LPWA technologies (see above). These figures represent sales opportunities per year and are more useful for business modelling purposes than are corresponding total installed base figures. LPWA: Adaptable connections Gross additions corresponding to core forecast connections that are adaptable (gross additions) for connection by LPWA technologies (see above). These figures represent sales opportunities per year and are more useful for business modelling purposes than are corresponding total installed base figures. 3 Strategy Reports Table 3‐4: Strategy Reports published to end May 2014 Date Title May‐14 Sales, partnership and channels strategies in M2M Abstract This Strategy Report starts from the perspective of the buyer of an M2M solution and examines where they should optimally be looking at buying that solution. It also examines what various players in the M2M value chain should do to optimise their approach to channels and targeting vertical sectors. Machina Research’s starting hypothesis is that the characteristics of each M2M application (and the entity procuring it) will be a key determinant of which vendor might be selected. We examine the key characteristics of the application that might determine such a choice, including location, technical requirements, scale of deployment etc. This allows us to define a broad market segmentation for all of M2M, along with a view on which organisations might be able to support which of the categories of application. We then turn to the types of organisations that might sell M2M solutions, including Communications Service Providers, specialist M2M Service Providers, Module Vendors and Systems Integrators. The report then turns the tables a little to look at things from the perspective of the solutions vendor, to see what they should do about maximising their revenue opportunity given the diversity of requirements identified in previous sections. 8
Jan‐14 Competitive Dynamics in This report examines the emergence of M2M/IoT Application Platforms and the the M2M Platform Space impact that these will have on the established M2M platforms environment. The report starts by charting the development of the current day M2M platforms environment, before identifying the emergence of M2M/IoT Application Platforms and describing the key success factors of such platforms. A significant proportion of the report is dedicated to an analysis of the competitive dynamics within the M2M/IoT Application Platform space, and the consequential impact on more traditional M2M platform types. The report provides invaluable analysis for enterprises seeking to gain an improved understanding and awareness of platforms within M2M and IoT, and platforms and other service providers looking to identify opportunity areas to develop and improve product and service offerings. Companies mentioned in the report include Amdocs, Axeda, Bosch Software Innovations, Cumulocity, Deutsche Telekom, Ericsson (with their DCP platform), Eurotech, Jasper Wireless, Oracle, PTC, Telefonica, Thingworx, Vodafone, and Xively. Specifically, we contrast the current leading edge approach to M2M application development (as exemplified by Axeda) with the new and emerging M2M/IoT Application Platform led approach that will enable a wider Internet of Things environment (as exemplified by ThingWorx and Bosch Software Innovation). Dec‐13 Global M2M Modules The report “Global M2M Modules Report: Advancing LTE migration heralds massive Report: Advancing LTE change in global M2M modules market” is focused on the rapidly evolving market migration heralds massive dynamics related to WWAN M2M modules and the future market opportunity within change in global M2M the M2M modules industry. As the primary radio access point for a significant portion modules market of the wirelessly connected M2M market, WWAN modules represent a crucial component in the overall M2M supply chain and their costs and technical capabilities comprise fundamental elements of M2M solution and product design. The report is based on detailed and extensive discussions with key relevant stakeholders, supplemented by Machina Research’s extensive understanding of the changing dynamics of the industry. Leveraging Machina Research’s comprehensive forecast database, this report also outlines the growth of shipments for M2M WWAN modules across global regions as well as top industry verticals and associated applications. This report examines several key drivers of M2M module design, pricing and expected shipment volumes for a ten‐year forecast period. In particular, the report provides detail and analysis of the changing network technology landscape in top global markets that is transforming the demand for LTE modules and, as a result, altering the balance of global module pricing and design. The report also examines how the increasing availability of LTE modules and improved price points will fundamentally alter the decision‐making process of companies looking to integrate M2M modules and connectivity into their products and services portfolio as well as into their own business operations and processes. Oct‐13 Creating value from data There has been a lot of buzz about Big Data in recent years and it is important to analytics in M2M – the Big understand the true impact. This extensive Strategy Report examines the topic of Big Data opportunity Data and its impact on machine‐to‐machine (M2M) communications. It is based on detailed and exhaustive discussions with key relevant stakeholders, supplemented by Machina Research’s extensive understanding of the changing dynamics of the industry. The report starts by examining what we mean by the term ‘Big Data’, identifying the right ways to define and measure it, including a look at our own measure of ‘Data Significance Factor’. It then goes on to look at the impact that Big Data will have on M2M, and vice versa, in terms of creating new data sources and justifying new investments in sensor networks. The final two sections focus on the future, looking at the challenges faced in Big Data and how these can be overcome, as well as how Big Data, M2M and the Internet of Things will evolve and merge. The report provides invaluable analysis for enterprises seeking to gain an improved understanding and awareness of Big Data, and service providers looking to identify opportunity areas to develop and improve data processing services for their customers (e.g. IT infrastructure improvements and cloud services). Apr‐13 Machine‐to‐Machine Machina Research’s M2M Communications Service Provider Benchmarking Report (M2M) Communications 2013 provides an independent analysis of the M2M capabilities of nine CSPs: AT&T, Service Provider Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, Telekom Austria Group M2M, Telenor, Benchmarking 2013 TeliaSonera, Verizon Wireless and Vodafone. The purpose of this report is to give Machina Research’s view on the likely long‐term success of each of these major M2M CSPs as well as to assess best practice in M2M and determine major trends in the industry. The report examines each operator based on six criteria, the 6 'P's: Pedigree, Platform, Place, Partnerships, Process and People. 9
Jan‐12 Machine‐to‐Machine (M2M) Communications Service Provider Benchmarking 2012 Machina Research’s M2M Communications Service Provider Benchmarking Report 2012 provides an independent analysis of the M2M capabilities of seven CSPs: AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefonica, Telenor, Verizon Wireless and Vodafone. The purpose of this report is to give Machina Research’s view on the likely long‐term success of each of these major M2M CSPs. 4. リサーチノート
Table 4‐5: Research Notes published to end April 2014 Date Title Apr‐14 China’s Smart City initiatives pick up pace and will have a global impact Apr‐14 Why NoSQL databases are needed for the Internet of Things Apr‐14 Next generation low‐cost modules poised to disrupt the M2M market Mar‐14 Dutch regulator is first to approve SIM liberalisation: what are the implications for M2M? Mar‐14 US automobile M2M market heats up with new partnership alignment Mar‐14 iBeacon opens new and attractive markets with close proximity technologies The issue Since the inclusion of ‘Smart City’ as a focus area in the Twelfth Five Year Plan (FYP) for National Economy, the number of cities in the PRC to embrace Smart City has rocketed . As of September, 2013, 311 cities have proposed or started Smart City projects, covering cities of all size across the whole country, affecting 52.6% of the population of 1.4 billion. The total investment for the period 2011‐2015 on ‘Smart Cities’ will be more than 1.6 trillion yuan (USD260bn). This Research Note examines these Smart City investments and the likely impact on the China (PRC). Big Data in the Internet of Things is snowballing. The amount of data is ever‐increasing and becoming more and more varied. The impact on traditional relational database management systems (RDBMS) will be significant. Databases need to adopt and meet these new IoT requirements with greater data processing agility, multiple analytical tools including real‐time analytics, and aligned and consistent views of the data. This Research Note examines what database capabilities will be required to address data managed in the Internet of Things, and how NoSQL systems like MongoDB, Cassandra and HBase are meeting this challenge. With a complex and fragmented array of M2M modules in the market, price continues to be a top concern of enterprises looking to deploy new M2M solutions. To address the growing demand of M2M connectivity with more efficient, low‐cost LTE modules, a 3GPP workgroup is developing standards for a new category of M2M devices that will rival the price levels of current GSM modules. In parallel, low power wide area network providers are also in the process of establishing their market presence in key global markets in order to achieve the scale they need to hit their predicted volumes and price levels. Over the last few months Machina Research has had a number of discussions with various M2M‐related organisations about the potential for SIM liberalization (i.e. allowing organisations other than mobile operators, and specifically enterprise customers themselves, to issue SIMs). In March 2014 the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs was the first to announce that it was moving in this direction. There are a number of advantages and disadvantages to such a model, and seemingly substantial implications for the structure of the mobile market. The aim of this Research Note is to examine the associated issues and provide our views on this contentious area. With multiple announcements from top mobile operators and auto manufacturers in Q1 2014, the competitive landscape of the US connected car sector is evolving rapidly. With the launch of the MNO’s Drive Platform and Drive Studio, AT&T is targeting automotive OEMs with a modular services platform as well as a dedicated “studio” in Atlanta, in which to develop and test new connected vehicles and components. AT&T also further expanded its available development tools with the launch M2x, an API collection designed to further aid the application developer community create and test M2M‐specific applications. Applications with location based services (LBS) remain a significant market opportunity area in M2M and the emerging Internet of Things. LBS technologies enable devices to identify their locations, and with this information, create opportunities to design innovative marketing, advertising and customer loyalty services. This is only the tip of the iceberg with the latest developments in location (close proximity) technologies. This Research Note examines how iBeacon from Apple, using Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) Technology opens a richer, securer and more accurate LBS option, allowing the delivery of richer applications, and potentially enhancing the role of the smartphone in M2M / IoT infrastructures. 10
Feb‐14 Telefonica M2M Partner Programme creates the right framework for addressing diverse channels Feb‐14 Wyless acquires Aspider M2M and makes bigger play for Europe (and the world) Feb‐14 M2M Leaderboard: Sprint/Softbank deal, alliance developments, and increasing expectations for M2M in China causes reshuffle in top 10 Jan‐14 ThingWorx develops a model to generate sustainable revenues with PTC Jan 14 GSMA publishes specifications for OTA provisioning of M2M SIMs Dec‐13 Wide Area M2M Connectivity Technologies: Low Power options likely to disrupt the market Dec‐13 Medium range M2M connectivity technologies are likely to remain niche Dec‐13 Short Range M2M connectivity technologies: fragmentation will characterize the market Dec‐13 M2M CSP Benchmarking: Tele2 M2M Global Solutions Dec‐13 To succeed in M2M, smaller MNOs must play to their strengths In February 2014 Telefonica launches its M2M Global Channel Partner Programme with its aims of transparency, straightforwardness, and partner development. This Research Note examines the details of the announcement and provides Machina Research’s view on its fitness for purpose as a CSP partner programme. In February 2014 Wyless announced that it was acquiring Dutch M2M service provider Aspider M2M. This move strengthens Wyless’s European capabilities, and alongside its recent acquisition of Brazil’s TM Data it demonstrates global ambitions. At the same time Wyless also announced that it was also appointing M2M stalwart Gilli Coston as Chief Strategy Officer. This Research Note examines these moves and provides Machina Research’s views on the likely impact. This Research Note provides an update to our Machina Research’s M2M Leaderboard that ranks MNOs by expected revenue from M2M. For this edition, we consider expected revenue in 2022, instead of 2020 as in previous iterations. We have also improved the robustness of our analysis by expanding its scope to 49 CSPs, up from 36. Finally, our ranking table now presents the top 30 CSPs by expected revenue in 2022, up from 20 before. Providers of M2M/IoT Application Platforms deliver two major benefits to enterprises: an efficient approach to application development for the growing market of connected things and a more flexible and lower entry cost for enterprises to integrate applications with third‐party applications and systems. These benefits emerge as significant drivers in M2M and IoT markets but looking behind the scenes, how will these service providers generate sustainable revenues from the solutions? This Research Note explores the role of M2M/IoT Application Platforms in emerging M2M and IoT markets, and assesses how the acquisition of ThingWorx by Parametric Technology Corporation (PTC) for USD112 million may in fact answer the question of how sustainable revenues will be generated by such platform providers in this market.
During 2013 a number of pre‐standard solutions emerged from various SIM vendors for handling remote OTA provisioning/localization/IMSI swapping. In December 2013 the GSM Association published its own specifications. This Research Note examines the announcement and the likely impact on the M2M world. The requirements for M2M connectivity vary with the application but are often very different from the voice and data applications for which most telecom services are designed. New low‐power wide area LPWA technologies promise to revolutionise the business case for M2M but how do they compare for specific applications The requirements for M2M connectivity vary with the application but are often very different from the voice and data applications for which most telecom services are designed. Historically, there have been a number of applications, such as process control, which have used medium range or field‐area communications and these are being connected to the wide area to become M2M applications, while new applications are leading to the development of new medium‐range technologies. Application developers need to identify the technologies best suited to their application. Obtaining adequate in‐building coverage for M2M applications is challenging – devices may be in basements or behind metal covers or there may be solid walls dividing the property. A number of solutions have been proposed using wireless and powerline communications or a combination of both, but which should application designers be incorporating into their solutions? In November 2013, Tele2 announced its intentions to pursue the M2M market more aggressively via its dedicated Tele2 M2M Global Solutions business unit. Every year Machina Research publishes its M2M CSP Benchmarking report analyzing the strategy of various major global operators with respect to machine‐to‐machine communications (M2M). This Research Note complements that report (which examines nine other CSPs) by looking at the position of Tele2 in the M2M market. M2M, or at least cellular M2M, is often perceived to be dominated by the larger mobile operator groups such as AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica or Vodafone. However, there is a very real opportunity for smaller MNOs if they can select the appropriate strategy. At Machina Research we regularly provide advice to smaller MNOs looking to carve out a niche in M2M. This Research Note provides a summary of the key issues for success. 11
Dec‐13 The market for M2M apps In August, Machina Research shared a market observation in a Research Note titled stores just became more “Watch out – here comes the M2M apps store.” Within a few months, the market saw competitive a number of leading players, such as Deutsche Telekom, announce an apps store‐like approach to the market, and others like ThingWorx Marketplace and SeeControl’s Application Store capturing market attention with apps store models. Is this the beginning of a wave of M2M apps stores? Nov‐13 Device Cloud Networks Device Cloud Networks (DCN) offers a hosted M2M platform aimed at smaller mobile (DCN) offers a unique network operators. As well as a comprehensive technical solution, DCN also offers a option for smaller MNOs potentially significant commercial benefit whereby smaller MNOs can effectively pool to exploit the M2M their services to tap into global or regional opportunities that might otherwise have been solely limited to bigger global groups. This Research Note examines the potential opportunity opportunity for DCN and the companies using the platform. Sep‐13 M2M Leaderboard: This Research Note provides an update to Machina Research’s M2M Leaderboard, Vodafone extends its lead, examining the impact of the last few months’ developments in M2M on the likely AT&T and Deutsche success of MNOs. Since the last iteration in May 2013, Vodafone has expanded its Telekom continue their global ambitions in Brazil and Korea, Deutsche Telekom has burnished its open battle for second place platform credentials with payment and developer kit announcements, Telefonica has secured the biggest M2M contract ever with the UK’s DECC smart meter win, Orange opted to implement Ericsson’s DCP, and Telecom Italia joined the GMA. These, and many other events, have influenced Machina Research’s ranking of global CSPs. This Research Note examines all of the latest developments in M2M for MNOs in the last few months and offers Machina Research’s view on the likely impact Sep‐13 AT&T focuses on On September 17th 2013, AT&T inaugurated its latest innovation Foundry in Plano, M2M/IoT to expand its Texas, dedicated to supporting the creation and development of new M2M products innovation Foundry and services. Co‐located in the same building with AT&T’s first Foundry, the new M2M initiative center will provide a collaboration space for technology partners and developers to create, test and potentially launch new M2M related devices, applications and solution platforms. This Research Note explores AT&T’s innovation Foundry structure and approach in context with the operator’s broader M2M strategy. Sep‐13 Vodafone sells Verizon In September 2013 Vodafone sold its stake in Verizon Wireless for USD130 billion. This Wireless stake and maybe deal has the potential to send repercussions through the whole global mobile industry, opens door for AT&T tie‐ both in terms of the impact on Vodafone, as well as further knock‐on M&A activity up: the implications for that may occur. One piece of speculation that is not without merit is that AT&T might M2M bid to acquire Vodafone. This Research Note looks specifically at the impact on the M2M sector of the Verizon deal and provides our view on the potential impact of AT&T acquiring Vodafone. Sep‐13 Overcoming the Many cellular‐based M2M solutions are multi‐national. As a result MNOs looking to permanent roaming support clients will need to be able to provide services in countries all over the world. challenge for M2M: No operator has a complete global footprint. The use of roaming to fill in the gaps in Vodafone deal with service is fine for some applications and in some circumstances, but certainly not in Datora shows one all. This Research Note looks at the various reasons for prohibition on permanent solution, while AT&T roaming, examines the situations in key markets such as Brazil and the Middle East, and looks at some of the approaches that can be taken to overcome the challenges. keeps its options open Sep‐13 In active M2M industry On July 17th, US M2M service provider RACO Wireless announced the acquisition of M&A season, US‐based Position Logic, a location‐based M2M services company with strong business presence solution provider RACO in Latin America. With the acquisition RACO Wireless gains expanded service platform Wireless provides global capabilities and, most importantly, a substantial book of business in Latin America. expansion strategy This Research Note examines these latest announcements in the context of our view template with acquisition on the overall positioning of RACO Wireless for success in the M2M market. of Position Logic Sep‐13 Use of remote In the Research Note “Regulatory compliance and client demand drive MNOs to provisioning in M2M will embrace IMSI swapping/remote provisioning in M2M” (September 2013) we focus on late binding of examined the drivers for the evolution towards remote provisioning. This Research long life‐span high Note focuses on the various ways in which remote provisioning is likely to be used, and bandwidth applications the applications and services it is most likely to affect. Sep‐13 Regulatory compliance Over the last twelve months there has been a substantial increase in focus from MNOs and client demand drive on embedded SIM and the associated issue of remote provisioning. This Research Note MNOs to embrace IMSI examines the main drivers for eUICC/IMSI swapping, and some of the strategies of swapping/remote MNOs towards this subject. A subsequent Research Note “Use of remote provisioning provisioning in M2M in M2M will focus on late binding of long life‐span high bandwidth applications” (September 2013) further examines the use of IMSI swapping and the impact on different M2M applications. 12
Aug‐13 Watch out, here comes The connection of devices is now becoming a commodity. Enterprises are looking to the new M2M Apps store make better use of the data generated by the growing estates of connected devices, and improvements to business processes can only be achieved with intelligent business applications. To enable this, many M2M platforms providers are making the processes of apps development quicker and easier for customers. The issue will be for application developers to access this market with ready‐made, off‐the‐shelf intelligent business applications, quickly scalable and able to integrate or complement M2M devices in business processes. This Research Note explores the opportunity associated with M2M application development, independent of device connectivity, as demonstrated by companies like ThingWorx and SeeControl and how application development platforms now pave the way for M2M Application stores. Jun‐13 Low Power Wide Area The names Sigfox, Weightless and On‐Ramp are increasingly often heard in M2M Wireless network circles. But what are the true capabilities of these emerging Low Power Wide Area technologies for M2M: a (LPWA) wireless technologies? This Research Note examines the technical capabilities technical comparison of of the new competing network technologies, examining capacity, latency, coverage, On‐Ramp, Sigfox and power and numerous other characteristics to determine which might be the most Weightless appropriate for M2M communications. Jun‐13 Low Power Wide Area The names Sigfox, Weightless and On‐Ramp are increasingly often heard in M2M Wireless networks: a circles. But what is the true potential market for these Low Power Wide Area wireless potential global market of solutions? This Research Note examines the opportunity that these LPWA technologies 15.5 billion M2M have to substitute for existing technologies, such as cellular, and drive additional connections growth in the M2M market. Jun‐13 On‐Ramp, Sigfox and The names Sigfox, Weightless and On‐Ramp are increasingly often heard in M2M Weightless: a strategic circles. What should we expect from these new technologies? What are the strategies comparison of competing of those that control the technologies, and how much of an impact are they likely to approaches to M2M have? This Research Note explores the differing strategic approaches associated with these potentially competing technologies, looking at factors such as background, deployments and commercial issues. Jun‐13 Confronting prospects of In May 2013, Machina Research analysts attended Axeda’s Connexion 2013 event in waning growth, Axeda Boston. During the course of that event the company made a number of interesting adds partners and new announcements including partnerships with Wipro, to add greater systems integration capital injection to gain services, and JackBe, to beef up application development tools. The company also global scale and expand gave an update on its Axeda Ready hardware approval programme. On June 3rd, Axeda functionality also announced that Wipro would also become a “Platinum Partner” in conjunction with a USD5m investment in Axeda from Wipro. This Research Note examines these latest announcements in the context of our view on the overall positioning of Axeda for success in the M2M market. May‐13 M2M Leaderboard: AT&T This Research Note provides an update to Machina Research’s M2M Leaderboard that snatches second spot ranks MNOs by expected revenue from M2M in 2020. This is an adjacent analysis to from DT as top 4 all grow the M2M CSP Benchmarking Report which looks at the entirety of the CSP’s their expected global capabilities, including both fixed and mobile, and examines best practice in M2M. The market share last update of the Leaderboard was at the end of December 2012. May‐13 Addressing diverse M2M Players across the M2M value chain are looking at uncovering new seams of unmet opportunities requires a demand for connectivity, and building strong relationships with enterprise end users. different approach to The big question is: how do you gain mind (and wallet) share in selling channels telecommunications services to enterprise users? May‐13 Is there a need for data Big Data introduces an opportunity for enterprises and public sectors to gain partners in the M2M additional value from data generated by implemented M2M solutions. To monetize ecosystem? data, operators will need to deliver skills in data capture, processing, management, storage, analysis and presentation. While some operators do possess business intelligence capabilities, additions to these skills will be required, and new business models developed. To enter the market quickly with the right services, operators will need to explore partnerships with analytic platform providers. Apr‐13 Integrating M2M and With the growth of M2M and mobile enterprise applications’ markets, similarities in mobile enterprise enterprise business drivers as well as functionality in technology platforms are applications resources has becoming apparent. This Research Note reviews how CSPs and mobile operators distinct opportunities and should consider merging these separate business and technology capabilities within their organizations, and what benefits and challenges integrations could provide. advantages Apr‐13 M2M & Big Data: how to A tremendous amount of the value of M2M solutions lies in analysis of the data monetise data in the generated. Through telematics, the automotive sector has had more experience than Automotive sector other sectors in pursuing and utilizing (vehicle) data and, with advances in technology, additional opportunities are now emerging. This Research Note reviews what this data is, how the data could be applied in ‘data communities,’ and what the opportunities and issues will be for providers like mobile operators in this emerging space. 13
Apr‐13 Satellite operators look to build vertical expertise to capitalise on the M2M opportunity Mar‐13 Momentum is building behind usage‐based insurance Mar‐13 Global M2M statistics: what does the data tell us? Mar‐13 Upgradeable licensing fees for 3G/LTE would remove a lot of friction in M2M Mar‐13 Smart Home market is ripe for turnkey solutions, although channels remain unclear Mar‐13 Near field communications could significantly enhance most M2M solutions Feb‐13 How MNOs can grow M2M revenue Feb‐13 Not all devices are equally suited to M2M connectivity Dec‐12 Machina Research’s 10 predictions for
M2M in 2013 Dec‐12 M2M Leaderboard: No significant
change in operator positions Dec‐12 What should Deutsche Telekom do
about M2M in the US? Satellite players are pursuing opportunities in the M2M marketplace. Most are following a dual‐pronged strategy, developing their traditional wholesale businesses while exploring which verticals provide most opportunities for satellite in the M2M market. Despite growing demand for satellite services, there are still significant barriers to uptake, not least of all cost. This Research Note examines the key factors which are driving the M2M satellite market and its potential for growth. While there have been some notable pockets of adoption (particularly Italy), usage‐
based insurance has been slow to arrive. It is beginning to feature in the insurers portfolio of services in some geographic markets. Where it has been made available it often targets niche segments such as young drivers rather than the mass market. The slow stop/start nature of its development can be attributed to a number of factors but there is now more momentum behind the service. This paper examines some of the key success factors. As part of our process of market analysis Machina Research examines all available market data on a country by country basis. Typically there is only a limited amount of primary data from operators and regulators, often with different definitions from ours. Machina Research collects all of this data and seeks to normalize it and reconcile with our detailed bottom‐up market analysis. This paper examines some of the data released by third parties, particularly regulators, about particular markets and provides some insight into the process of analysis that Machina Research goes through. The growth of the M2M market is being stifled by the fact that customers are required to pay a premium for including multiple RAN technologies within devices despite not knowing whether these technologies will ultimately be used. This Research Note examines the potential for a virtual upgrade path whereby customers pay the licensing fees to IPR holders such as Qualcomm, only when corresponding technologies are used. The market for smart homes seems to have changed recently. The ‘smart home’ concept is moving from being an aspirational future environment to something that is imminently about to become a reality. In this Research Note, we review the current state of the market, based on meetings at both Mobile World Congress and CeBIT. Since its inception around 10 years ago Near Field Communication (NFC) has been mainly talked of in the context of mobile payments and e‐ticketing. Yet there are other uses including applications in the M2M market for which near field communication solutions, whether using NFC or other solutions (e.g. bar codes, other RFID technologies), are well suited. This Research Note reviews the ways in which near field communications can be incorporated into M2M applications, what the overall opportunity could be in terms of M2M Revenue Generating Units (RGUs) and which verticals could benefit most. It is widely recognised that M2M represents a significant revenue opportunity for mobile network operators (MNOs), and that MNOs must deliver more than simple connectivity to avail themselves of such opportunities. There are a number of options that operators have for increasing their share of total potential addressable revenue. This Research Note investigates the effectiveness of a range of different approaches. It may often seem that the future is portrayed as being almost universally ‘connected’, with almost all devices being M2M‐enabled and stitched into the emerging ‘internet of things’. This Research Note explores the attributes and qualities of devices that are particularly well suited to M2M connectivity, and also specifically to WWAN M2M connectivity with a view to identifying those devices that will and won’t be connected.
Last year Machina Research published its predictions for how the M2M sector would evolve during 2012. In this Research Note we make a new set of predictions for 2013. This Research Note provides an update to Machina Research’s M2M Leaderboard that ranks MNOs by expected revenue from M2M in 2020. The last update was at the end of July 2012. Machina Research believes that Deutsche Telekom’s presence in the US is potentially one of its greatest assets in the M2M market. No other operator (with the possible exception of Vodafone) can span Europe and the US with facilities‐based capabilities. However, in May 2011, T‐Mobile USA chose to largely ignore the M2M opportunity while the abortive AT&T acquisition was being worked out. Since falling through, DT finds itself with a US asset with limited in‐house M2M capability. This research note examines what DT should do in M2M terms with the significant asset that is a US facilities‐based network. 14
Dec‐12 Rapid growth in M2M will create
opportunities for operators to provide
field support services Dec‐12 M2M vendor cloud platforms: Gemalto on a collision course with MNOs, Telit and Sierra look to complement them Dec‐12 DLNA home content management: high uptake amongst suppliers, low amongst consumers Nov‐12 Sierra Wireless is leading the M2M modules market, but is not flawless Oct‐12 M2M: a revenue stream for the operator, or a barrier to cost reduction? Oct‐12 More intelligence in the M2M edge device conflicts with the concept of ‘big data’ Oct‐12 Beyond traffic: Communications service provider (CSP) revenue opportunities in the building security market Sep‐12 Cloud‐based M2M platforms such as Jasper’s Control Center or Ericsson’s DCP can help many MNOs in exploiting the potential of M2M Sep‐12 Orange provides positive M2M strategy update Sep‐12 Global eReader forecast and implications for MNO business models Many M2M connected devices will require field installation and maintenance services, and many more could be enhanced by the addition of such services. This Research Note explores this new downstream revenue opportunity for CSPs and others with appropriate field force capabilities. M2M module vendors (OEMs) are correctly concerned about commoditization. In order to add value all of them are looking to provide more of an end‐to‐end service for enterprises, incorporating cloud‐based service and device management platforms. The stand‐out examples are Gemalto’s SensorLogic, Sierra’s AirVantage and Telit’s M2MAIR. This diversification is occurring at the same time as mobile operators are also looking to extend their role in the value chain. This Research Note examines vendor strategies and seeks to determine where and in what respects vendor strategies put them at risk of competing with their MNO customers, and where the strategies are complementary. The Digital Living Network Alliance (DLNA) was founded in 2003 to address the requirement to share digital content across networked devices in the home. Despite significant backing from the supply‐side with industry heavyweights such as Intel, Sony and Microsoft supporting it there has been far less awareness among consumers of the protocol and what it enables. Sierra is a leading manufacturer of M2M modules. This Research Note looks at its products, financial and operational performance and its future commercial strategy for growth. While the balance is shifting towards 3G, most new M2M devices are still 2G. As a result, Mobile Network Operator (MNO) strategies with regard to their 2G networks are critical to the future of M2M. Many are increasingly looking to refarm 2G (and 3G) for use with more spectrally efficient technologies. This Research Note examines the trend for spectrum refarming and assesses the impact on MNOs and the rest of the M2M value chain. There is an emerging trend for more intelligence to be shifted from the core out to edge M2M devices. As a result application developers and service providers will see a reduction in the amount of data collected from devices. This represents a potential conflict with the demands of ‘Big Data’ which is based on analysis of as large an amount of granular data as possible. Provision of data transmission services for M2M applications does not always translate into significant revenues for CSPs. Operators need to seek ways to add value to the overall service package rather than focusing purely on traffic. Some operators are already forging ahead and have built solid businesses on providing comprehensive services targeting businesses and home owners with security applications. M2M connectivity support and service enablement platforms1 (e.g. Jasper Wireless’s Control Center, Ericsson’s Device Connection Platform or in‐house developed alternatives such as Vodafone’s GDSP) play a critical role in the M2M space, and contribute significantly to the overall development of the M2M market as a whole. The deployment of an M2M platform can bring benefits to a mobile operator in several key areas including: reducing operator costs, supporting the demands of an operator’s clients, helping MNOs to partner to deliver services, maintaining a leading edge proposition, maintaining focus on customer requirements, taking ‘friction’ out of the sales cycle, and simplifying solution development. This Research Note discusses each of these roles in more detail and then examines the relative benefits of cloud‐
based M2M platform solutions compared to in‐house developed platforms. On 13th September Machina Research analysts attended a session hosted by France Telecom‐Orange giving an update on the company’s M2M strategy. This Research Note comments on that strategy. Adoption of e‐reader devices has been uneven across developed markets. The US market has enjoyed significant growth in e‐readers followed by the UK but they have had little impact in most European markets including France and Germany. Japan and South Korea, early adopters of new technologies, also lag other developed markets. This research paper explores the factors driving and inhibiting e‐reader adoption in several markets. 15
Sep‐12 The Global M2M Association (GMA) is announced with little fanfare Sep‐12 The M2M market is evolving rapidly and MNOs must react Jul‐12 M2M alliance forms around the Jasper Wireless platform, but where’s AT&T? Jul‐12 China Unicom, NTT DoCoMo and Telefonica are big winners in revised M2M Leaderboard In September 2012 the Global M2M Association (GMA) was finally announced at France Telecom‐Orange’s partner event in Brussels, and Deutsche Telekom’s M2M Partner Event in Budapest. For those watching the M2M market closely, this was not really news as the “GMA” name had been used in various contexts for the last 9 months. However, it was the first time it had been officially announced and the aims, membership and future direction been publicly discussed. This research note examines the alliance and what it means for the M2M success of the three members, and beyond. The M2M market is evolving rapidly. Machina Research’s analysts have identified a number of critical areas in which the M2M market is subject to substantial change, almost all of which affect the role of Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). Some are changes that have been signposted for the last few years whereas others have yet to truly manifest their impact. This Research Note explores the changing dynamics of the sector and makes recommendations about how MNOs need to best react in order to address the new M2M order. In July 2012 seven MNOs running the Jasper Wireless Control Center platform announced an alliance to collaborate on M2M. Interestingly, AT&T the single biggest operator running the Jasper platform is not currently involved. This Research Note examines the reasons for the alliance, the expected impact and examines AT&T’s likely motivations. This Research Note provides an update to the M2M Leaderboard that ranks global M2M operators by their expected revenue in 2020. The last update was in March 2012. Machina Research ⽇本総代理店
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